KP Sharma Oli

K.P. Sharma Oli Sworn in As Nepal PM Again; ‘Look Forward to Working Closely,’ Says PM Modi

Three days after the previous prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal failed to win the trust vote, the 72-year-old Oli was sworn in for the fourth time.

New Delhi: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has congratulated K.P. Sharma Oli as the latter was sworn in as the prime minister of Nepal for the fourth time.

Modi, in a post on X, expressed hope to work closely to further strengthen ties with Nepal. He wrote:

“Congratulations @kpsharmaoli on your appointment as the Prime Minister of Nepal. Look forward to working closely to further strengthen the deep bonds of friendship between our two countries and to further expand our mutually beneficial cooperation for the progress and prosperity of our peoples. @PM_nepal_”

Three days after the previous prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal failed to win the trust vote in Nepal’s House of Representatives, the 72-year-old Oli was sworn in at the president Ram Chandra Paudel’s office in Sheetal Niwas at Kathmandu today.

The Kathmandu Post reports that Oli is accompanied by his new coalition partner Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba. He has submitted signatures of 166 lawmakers in his support – 88 from the Congress and 78 of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist).

Nepal’s Ruling Coalition in Turmoil as Prachanda Supports Opposition Presidential Candidate

The decision has angered the CPN-UML under K.P. Sharma Oli, who met with Prachanda on Friday but was left disappointed. The deputy PM has, meanwhile, quit.

New Delhi: Nepal’s ruling alliance has been in turmoil since Saturday, February 25, after prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal (better known as Prachanda) said he will support Ram Chandra Paudel – the candidate from an opposition party – for the post of president.

Paudel belongs to the Nepali Congress party. The Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) party, in the coalition under Prachanda, reportedly has its own candidate for the election. Elections to the post of president will take place on March 9.

The term of President Bidya Devi Bhandari comes to an end on March 13. A total of 334 members from the federal Parliament – both from Pratinidhisabha and Rastiryasabha – and 550 members from the seven provincial assemblies will vote for Nepal’s third president. This election presents a major challenge for the sustainability of the Prachanda government, Akhilesh Upadhyay had written for The Wire earlier this year.

Prachanda’s party, Maoist Centre, had contested the Nepal parliamentary elections last year as part of a pre-poll alliance with the Nepali Congress, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) and two other smaller parties. However, in a surprise move, he broke away from the coalition and formed a government with the rival CPN (Unified Marxist Leninist) and other parties on December 25.

CPN-UML is chaired by former Nepal prime minister K.P. Oli, who the Kathmandu Post reports had a two-hour meeting with Prachanda on Friday. The meeting left Oli disappointed as by that time, the Nepali Congress had already secured backing for its presidential candidate.

Oli had earlier shot down Prachanda’s proposal for ‘a national consensus’ to share the posts of President, Vice President, Speaker and Deputy Speaker.

The Post reports that eight political parties, both in and outside the current government, have decided to support a Nepali Congress candidate in the election for president.

Reuters has reported that Rajendra Lingden, the deputy prime minister who was also minister for energy, water resources and irrigation, has resigned from Prachanda’s government in protest, along with the ministers for urban development and legal matters. A junior minister assisting Lingden also quit.

The Nepali parliament was readying for a churning ever since Prachanda on January 10, passed the parliamentary floor test with flying colours, with nearly all the major political parties in the country voting in his favour.

All You Need to Know as Nepal Goes to the Polls

This is the first time in Nepal’s parliamentary history that elections will be held after the completion of an entire term of the parliament. Yet there is large-scale disillusionment and people have felt that these polls, too, will bring in the same old political leaders.

New Delhi: Nepalis will vote today, November 20, to elect their representatives for the parliamentary and provincial assemblies amidst rising disenchantment over the fact that it is the same old faces who are standing for elections this time around.

Here is a quick primer on the numbers – and the issues at hand – of the elections.

In numbers

More than 17,988,570 voters can vote to directly select candidates for 165 seats in the House of Representatives and 330 seats in the seven provincial assemblies. Those who will occupy the remaining 110 and 220 seats in the HoR and PC, respectively, will be selected from a list of Proportional Representation candidates submitted to the Election Commission by political parties ahead of the polls.

Around 50.8% of the electorate are men, while women account for 49.2% or 8.8 million. There are also 185 members of the LGBTQI community registered as voters.

For the 165 seats to the House of Representatives, there are 2,412 candidates, including 225 women in the fray. For the provincial assembly, 3,224 candidates are standing for election in the ‘First Past The Post’ seats.

At the polling booth, Nepali voters will be handed four ballot papers. The first one is for the direct election of a candidate to HoR, followed by one to select the political party for PR seats. The exact same process applies in the case of the elections to the provincial assembly as well.

Officials from the election commission work to set up polling station a day ahead of the general elections, in Bhaktapur, Nepal November 19, 2022. Photo: Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar

Are people enthusiastic about the elections?

This is the first time in the country’s parliamentary history that elections will be held after the completion of an entire term of the parliament. It is also only the second parliamentary election under the 2015 constitution.

There is large-scale disillusionment and people have felt that the elections would bring in the same old political leaders. This led to a new crop of younger, independent candidates entering the electoral battlefield, attempting to fire up voters.

Nepal’s voter turnout is usually high. But in the local elections held in May this year, the turnout was 64%, which was the lowest since the 2008 constituent assembly elections, which saw 61.8%.

The turnout at the 2017 parliamentary and provincial elections was 68.63%.

Also read: Favourites, Alliances, Numbers: All the Questions Ahead of Nepal’s November Polls Answered

When will the results be declared?

Not for some time.

Counting is a complicated process, with four ballot papers of each voter for two types of seats and bodies requiring counting.

Stating that he was very concerned about the “sluggish vote count”, Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Kumar Thapaliya told The Kathmandu Post last week that all the results would be out by December 8. However, the results of the election to the direct ‘First Past The Post’ seats will be out first, “within three days of counting beginning,” he added. All the rest of the counting for the proportional seats will also finish by the end of November.

After that, the Election Commission will have to divide the PR seats among parties based on their vote percentage and publish the names from their previously submitted lists.

The “sluggish” counting has indeed been criticised, with a former CEC putting the blame on the complexity of the ballot papers and frequent challenges raised by political parties due to narrow margins of victory.

Who are the key players in the elections?

As explained by Kamal Dev Bhattarai for The Wire, the fight to form the next government would be between two alliances, one led by the Nepali Congress and another by the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist).

The members of the NC-led electoral alliance are the CPN (Maoist Center), CPN (Unified Socialist), Socialist Party Nepal and other fringe parties, sometimes called the ‘democratic-left’ alliance. CPN-UML leads the second alliance, and its members are the Upendra Yadav-led Janata Samajbadi, the royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party and other smaller parties.

Besides, a slew of smaller parties and independent candidates have jumped into the fray, hoping to cash in on voters’ rising antipathy for mainstream political leaders.

Also read: Interview | ‘Monarchy in Nepal Will Mean More Respectful Ties With India, China’: RPP Leader

What are the critical issues for voters this time?

According to Reuters, voters have rising energy and food prices on their minds as the economy slows down. This year, the economy is slated to grow at 4.7%, compared to 5.8% last year, as per the Asian Development Bank.

There are also concerns about the lack of jobs, with a majority of Nepali workers making a beeline for overseas employment. Both the main parties have made promises to create hundreds of thousands of jobs yearly.

Besides, political stability is also a concern. The political volatility over the last five years occurred despite the pre-election Left alliance winning the majority in the 2017 elections. While the parliament has completed its full term, CPN-UML’s K.P. Oli Sharma did try to get it dissolved twice when he was prime minister, before the Supreme Court restored the house.

Who will likely form the next government?

In Nepal, all opinion and exit polls are banned under the election code of conduct.

However, as per internal assessments by parties and security agencies, reported by The Kathmandu Post, Nepali Congress is likely to emerge as the single largest party. It also won the most vote in this year’s local elections. According to some calculations, it could win around 100 to 110 parliamentary seats, compared to 63 in 2017. The CPN-UML’s tally is projected to come down from 121 in 2017 to double figures, dropping to around 75 to 80 seats.

As Nepal Heads to Polls, Here’s What Major Parties Are Saying About Foreign Policy

While foreign affairs may not be the top priority in elections, Nepal’s location, sandwiched between two Asian giants, means that it remains a significant undercurrent in domestic politics.

Kathmandu/New Delhi: In two weeks, over 17 million Nepali voters choose their representatives in the federal and provincial assemblies. It marks a momentous milestone in Nepal’s parliamentary democracy, as these will be the first polls to be held after the entire five-year tenure.

While foreign affairs may not be the top priority in elections, Nepal’s location, sandwiched between two Asian giants, means that it remains a significant undercurrent in domestic politics.

In the last elections in 2017, the Left alliance of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) and the Maoist Centre brought K.P. Oli back as prime minister with a big majority. According to analysts, Oli’s victory was based on a hardline nationalist platform during the 2017 election campaign that came against the backdrop of the five-month-long ‘blockade’ at the Indian border in 2015.

Five years on, the 2022 general elections are being held amidst a new landscape in Nepal’s foreign policy terrain.

After his 2017 victory, Oli began his term with an outreach from New Delhi. But by 2020, relations dipped to a nadir after the Oli government issued a new political map, which included territories – Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura, and Kalapani – controlled by India. This map was subsequently enshrined in the constitution. Later that year, a patch-up between Oli and India began with a much-commented visit of the Indian spy chief to the Nepali capital.

After Oli was voted out by parliament and the Nepali Congress-led coalition came to power, relations smoothened between the two neighbours. In the run-up to his ouster, Oli softened towards New Delhi and made an effort to woo the Hindu vote.

The India-Nepal border. Photo: PTI/Files

A key characteristic of Nepal’s diplomatic terrain has been the deliberate low profile maintained by the India mission in Kathmandu over the last few years. Instead, the Chinese embassy became the most visibly active diplomatic mission, with the Chinese ambassador flitting from meetings with one senior politician to another.

Not surprisingly, the political controversies in the diplomatic universe have shifted from being India-centric to Nepal’s relations with the US, a reflection perhaps of Chinese sensitivities over a larger American footprint in Kathmandu.

A hard-won success of the Deuba government was the ratification of a $500 million infrastructure grant by the US as part of the Millennium Challenge Corporation Nepal Compact. Just as the ruling coalition obtained parliamentary approval in February 2022, police used teargas and water cannon to disperse protestors, who claimed it would undermine Nepali sovereignty.

But, Deuba was forced to withdraw from the US’s Strategic Partnership Program (SPP) under pressure from alliance partners, who claimed it would lure Nepal into a military alliance. China publicly commended the Nepal government for the decision.

The manifestoes of political parties, released last week, do not have any big surprises, cleaving to their traditional outlook on Nepal’s relations with the wider world.

Nearly all of them refer to the 2015 Nepali constitution’s enshrined principles on conducting international relations for an elected government.

Pursuing an independent foreign policy considering national interest to be of utmost importance, on the basis of the UN Charter, non-alignment, principle of Panchasheel, international law and universal norms, and by remaining active to defend the sovereignty, indivisibility, national independence and national interest.
Entering into treaties and agreements on the basis of equality and mutual interest, by reviewing past treaties.

Further, under directive principles, the Nepali state has to maintain relations with the outside world “based on sovereign equality, protecting sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national interest of the country, and promoting national prestige in the international community”.

India’s former ambassador to Nepal, Ranjit Rae, indicated that coalition dynamics usually moderate the ideological positions on foreign policy articulated in manifestoes.

“There is a distinction between what one says in the manifesto and what they do once they are in a coalition government. Because there have to follow the manifesto of the coalition, rather than that of individual parties. Individual parties may have a wish list, but they will have to compromise in a coalition,” Rae told The Wire.

Here is what four major Nepal’s major national political parties presented as their key foreign policy stances in their Nepali-language manifestos.

Nepali Congress (NC)

Nepal’s largest political party, as per membership, leads a five-party coalition to the elections. It had only won 23 direct election seats in the 2017 elections but added 40 more seats under the proportional representation system. Perceived to be close to India, the centrist party’s chances have been buoyed by its performance in the local elections in May, where it received the largest amount of votes. NC is contesting 91 FPTP [first past the post] seats.

On foreign policy direction

In its election manifesto, the ruling NC has pledged to adopt an independent and balanced foreign policy in line with the United Nations charter, the country’s long-standing non-alignment policy and the principles of Panchsheel. Similarly, the party has opposed joining any military alliances and blocs. Nepali soil will not be allowed to be used against any neighbouring country, the party added.

The document also talks about bolstering regional organisations such as the South Asian Association for Regional Organisation (SAARC) and The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).

On India

Regarding the border dispute with India, the party specifically highlighted that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba had taken up the issue with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit to New Delhi in April this year.

The party manifesto further added that it would take a decisive step to resolve the existing border disputes with both India and China. There is, however, no separate mention of the new political map that triggered a row with India.

Nepal PM Sher Bahadur Deuba with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Credit: Reuters

Nepal Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Photo: Reuters

On China

The NC manifesto mentions that there is a border dispute with China in the Humla district and that it will seek a resolution through diplomatic means.

On the Belt and Road Initiative, NC says it is committed to its implementation based on national necessity and priority, as it was signed with China in 2017 under the NC-led government.

The NC manifesto states that priority will be given to economic diplomacy with a preference for grants rather than commercial loans.

What it means: With a public perception of being friendlier to India, NC has tried to straddle the middle path in the manifesto. While the document doesn’t mention the political map, NC voted in favour of the constitutional amendment in 2020, just like all other political parties in Nepal.

The NC has reminded that it led the coalition when Nepal signed the BRI agreement in May 2017. At the same time, it is the only party that has referred to a border dispute with China and reiterated the preference for grants rather than loans. During the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s visit to Kathmandu in March, no new project on BRI was inked.

Nepal’s former ambassador to the US, Suresh Chalise, criticised the NC manifesto for “perplexingly overlooking” the importance of “tourism diplomacy” to stem the loss of revenue while pledging to lessen dependence on remittances. “It places Nepal’s relations with immediate neighbours China and India in the same basket but enigmatically ignores Nepal’s relationship with the United States,” he told The Wire.

Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML)

Nepal’s principal communist opposition party has entered the hustings with a loose alliance with Madheshi and royalist parties. A two-time prime minister, Oli will likely get the top post if the coalition wins.

On foreign policy direction

The main opposition CPN-UML’s election manifesto states party would have an independent and balanced foreign policy with a priority on neighbouring countries. The party has further noted that it would adopt an approach of ‘amity with all, enmity with none, to foster a relationship based on sovereign equality. It also reiterates the constitutional principles for conducting foreign policy.

On China

UML refers to the Transit and Transport Agreement with China and the party’s initiatives to open up more border points with China.

UML refers to the Indian and Chinese railway projects in the manifesto. The document also promises that the construction of the Birgunj-Kathmandu and Rasuwagadi-Kathmandu railway lines will be initiated.

On India

It noted that “Nepali territory” at Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani will be protected and added that border disputes will be resolved.

The UML manifesto also stated that all treaties would be reviewed and amended to protect Nepal’s welfare, and new treaties would be signed based on necessity.

What it Means: While the initial years of Oli’s term had a more pronounced “pro-north” lean, IDSA research fellow Nihar Nayak pointed out that there had been an ‘U-turn’ from 2021. “Equidistant policy is the standard declared practice, but operationally, they have engaged with south,” he said.

UML has cited the trade and transit agreement and railway projects with China, but none have been operationalised. The Chinese border points with Nepal, closed for nearly two years due to the earthquake and covid-19 pandemic, have re-opened but keep on closing at frequent intervals for various reasons.

There is also no likelihood of a resolution of the border dispute with India, with New Delhi not showing giving any signal of engagement on the matter besides routine border meeting.

At a rally on November 5, Oli was clearly ready to cash in on the nationalist card, raising the issue of Kalapani and the new political map. “We issued the national map [incorporating the Kalapani area]. The Parliament endorsed it, unanimously. I am here to guarantee that [the area returns to Nepal],” he said.

Nepal’s Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli. Photo: Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar

Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC)

Maoist Centre, led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, had earlier contested the 2017 elections as a pre-poll alliance with UML, with a near two-thirds majority. But after the Supreme Court dissolved MC’s merger with UML, Dahal joined forces with Nepali Congress and other partners to oust Oli. It will be contesting 48 seats.

On foreign policy direction

The CPN (Maoist Center) has explained in detail in the foreign policy section that looking at the current geopolitical situation, friendly and proximate relationships will be maintained with both neighbours.

Providing a more conceptual view, the Maoist party observed in the manifesto that a “new cold war” was already being felt, and it is a big challenge for Nepal. The country will be freed from all sorts of foreign military activities and will be declared a zone of peace, the manifesto stated. Nepal will not become a part of any bilateral or multilateral military alliances.

On India

The Maoist party has said that open borders with India shall be controlled and regulated. The party has clearly stated that the Peace and Friendship Treaty of 1950, the Tripartite Agreement of 1947, and other treaties related to trade and treaties with India should be reviewed and if necessary cancelled.

The party has also pledged to address the problem of Gorkha soldiers, whose recruitment to the Indian Army was suspended at Kathmandu’s request after the introduction of the Agnipath tour-of-duty scheme.

What it means: Regulation of open borders and review of the 1950 treaty with India is a long-standing position of the Maoist Centre, which Prachanda had reiterated during his visit to New Delhi earlier this year. The ruling Indian political party, BJP had invited him to India, which was perceived as an outreach from the Indian establishment to keep its options open.

As an ideologically driven party, MC has faced internal dissent in recent months over stances taken by the leadership over foreign policy. The decision to support the parliamentary ratification of the MCC compact in parliament, albeit with an interpretative declaration, led to visible frustration, as the party had earlier threatened to quit the Deuba government over the matter.

The support of Prachanda had been crucial to the Deuba government’s foreign policy agenda. Therefore, with the MC not in a mood to give support to another controversial US initiative, Nepal had to formally withdraw from the Department of Defense-run Strategic Partnership Program.

Commenting on the importance of the manifesto, former Indian envoy Ranjit Rae pointed out that for communist parties, documents are very important, “as this is the line they disseminate internally and is absorbed by cadres”.

Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Socialist (CPN-US)

Formed in 2021 after a split from CPN-UML, the CPN-US became the fourth-largest political party with 25 seats in the House of Representatives. The party founder, former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, joined hands with the NC-led ruling coalition and is also jumping into the election as part of the pre-poll alliance. It is contesting 20 seats.

Madhav Kumar Nepal. Photo: Wikimedia Commons/De Utudanuki – Trabajo propio CC BY SA 3.0

On foreign policy direction

In its election manifesto, CPN (Unified Socialist), a member of a five-party coalition, says that it wants to establish a cordial relationship with neighbouring countries based on international law, the UN Charter, Panchsheel, and policy of non-interference. Unlike other parties, the party has only a brief section on foreign policy

What it means: In line with other Left parties, Madhav Kumar Nepal had been the focus of the Chinese ambassador’s meeting to have a unified communist front in Nepal. But, it obviously didn’t work.

Former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal had been at the forefront of the faction that had wanted to oust Oli from the party leadership, which led eventually the latter to propose the dissolution of the parliament in December 2020. However, the Kathmandu Post reported that one year later, Madhav Kumar Nepal’s coalition experience has not been smooth.

As a splinter party from CPN-UML, it is expected that Madhav Kumar Nepal’s party largely has a similar ideological position on foreign policy, especially on sovereignty and military alliance. Just like MCC, CPN-US had earlier opposed the MCC compact but changed its mind later. However, it remained opposed to the SPP.

Incidentally, Nepal had been Oli’s choice for a special envoy to India to discuss the border issue, but it never took off, as per media reports.

Favourites, Alliances, Numbers: All the Questions Ahead of Nepal’s November Polls Answered

In the country’s parliamentary history, this is going to be the first time that elections will be held after the completion of an entire term of the parliament.

Nepal will hold its second election for the federal parliament and provincial assemblies on November 20 under the constitution it adopted in 2015. The first election was held in November 2017.

The election promises to be a two-horse race between two political alliances – the ruling five-party group led by the Nepali Congress (NC) and the other coalition led by K.P. Sharma Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML).

In the country’s parliamentary history, this is going to be the first time that elections will be held after the completion of an entire term of the parliament.

But such a record is not for want of efforts by Oli.

Political parties had agreed to hold the elections to the parliament and those to the provincial assemblies simultaneously with the view that the results of one election may also affect the other. The country’s Election Commission also suggested that simultaneous elections would reduce expenses.

Oli had, notably, twice dissolved the parliament – in 2020 and 2021 – and gone for mid-term elections. All Nepal prime ministers after 1990 have done this. But for Oli, the Supreme Court reinstated the parliament both times, stating that the constitution envisions a full five-year tenure until parliament elects a new prime minister.

Supporters of caretaker Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli protest against the reinstatement of parliament by the Supreme Court, in Kathmandu, Nepal July 12, 2021. Photo: Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar

The 2022 election in numbers

According to the latest census published this year, Nepal’s population is about 30 million. Over 17.9 million people, including 8.8 million women and 9.1 million men, and 185 members of the LGBTQI community, will cast their votes to elect a new prime minister, president, speaker and chief ministers of seven provinces through their directly elected representatives.

The number of seats of the House of Representatives is 275. Of these, 165 are elected through the First Past The Post (FPTP) category and 110 under the Proportional Representation (PR) category.

Also read: Debate: First Past the Post Means India is Only a Namesake Democracy

For the 165 seats under the FPTP category, over 2,400 party and independent candidates have submitted their nomination papers. The number of women candidates is around 200. There is only a single candidate from the LGBTQI community.

For the provincial assemblies, about 3,000 candidates are contesting the elections. There are 550 provincial assembly seats, in total, with the assembly sizes ranging from 40 to 110 seats based on electoral constituencies. For election security, around 300,000 personnel will be deployed.

How inclusive is Nepal’s electoral process?

Nepal adopted an inclusive policy of ensuring the representation of women and marginalised communities in state organs after signing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2006 and in the constituent assembly elections in 2008.

In South Asia, Nepal’s 2015 constitution is a landmark example of progression and the cementing of an inclusive agenda. The constitution makes it mandatory for political parties to file a closed list of candidates to the Election Commission for the Proportional Representation (PR) category. After the elections, the Election Commission will select candidates from this list for various PR seats reserved for women, Dalit people, those belonging to indigenous nationalities (Aadibasi Janajati), the Khas Arya, the Madhesi, Tharu people, Muslim people and those belonging to the backward regions.

Similarly, parties are supposed to consider geographical and regional balance while choosing candidates.

Though parties have honoured inclusion under the PR category, the number of women contesting direct elections is still very low.

There is also a strong criticism centring the claim that only those connected with Nepal’s powerful politicians have repeatedly been nominated under the PR category, thus blocking new faces. For example, Nepali Congress has nominated Prime Minister Deuba’s wife, Arzu Rana Deuba and home minister Bal Krishna Khand’s wife Manju Khand in the PR list, which has led to dissatisfaction within the party.

A two-horse race

The November 20 elections can be termed a direct fight between two sides because all major parties have coalesced around two alliances, one led by NC and another by CPN-UML.

Also read: Timely Local Polls in Nepal Mean the Return of Grassroots Democracy

These alliances are not based on ideologies but on electoral calculations.

It is the first time that Nepal’s grand old party NC is contesting only 84 out of 165 constituencies under the FPTP category, which has already created dissatisfaction inside the party.

In 2017, a powerful left alliance had been formed, while NC fought the elections alone.

UML leader K.P. Oli (left) shaking hands with CPN-Maoist Centre leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda”. Credit: Reuters

UML leader K.P. Oli (left) shaking hands with CPN-Maoist Centre leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda”. Photo: Reuters

So what happened earlier?

The first parliamentary elections under the new constitution were held in 2017 in multiple phases.

There was an electoral alliance between CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center). The CPN-UML emerged the largest party, while NC faced a humiliating defeat in the elections, with only 63 seats in the House of Representatives.

In 2018, CPN-UML and the CPN Maoist party merged to form the Nepal Communist Party. After the merger, Oli became the prime minister, but due to a power-sharing dispute with Pushpa Kamal Dahal or ‘Prachanda’, the government was dissolved in 2021.

The Nepal Communist Party, therefore, split. A Supreme Court order paved the way for the revival of CPN-UML and the CPN Maoist Party. Later, a senior leader of CPN-UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal, broke away from the party and formed the CPN (Unified Socialist), which is now in the ruling alliance.

What about independent candidates?

In the local elections held in May, some independent candidates, like Balendra Shah who won the post of mayor of Kathmandu valley, were victorious.

Buoyed by the results of the local elections, scores of independent candidates have filed papers for the November 20 elections, hoping to tap into the electorate’s growing frustration with major political parties.

How are the alliances doing?

The current ruling alliance has high prospects of performing well in the elections. This is because NC emerged as the largest party in the local elections held in May.

Similarly, CPN (Maoist Centre) also improved its position in the polls. CPN (Unified Socialist), which split from the CPN (UML) last year, is also an important ally.

Birendra International Convention Centre, where the Nepalese parliament meets. Photo: Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 3.0

UML, a strong cadre-based party, has also strengthened its position by aligning with the Upendra Yadav-led party and some royalist parties. Due to their respective alliances, the strength of major parties NC and UML can be assumed to have slightly decreased. While NC is contesting just 84 seats out of 165 constituencies under the FPTP category, UML is contesting 135 seats, and Maoist Centre has submitted nominations in 47 seats.

Why is Madhes a factor?

After Nepal turned into a republic in 2008 through the first Constituent Assembly elections, Madhes-based parties emerged as a dominant political force. They played a vital role in the formation and dissolution of governments.

When the constitution was promulgated, a section of Madhes-based parties protested against it. Madhes-based parties have almost abandoned their constitutional amendment agenda and are instead keen to forge alliances for power. This time, Madhes-based parties do not have any alliances among themselves.

Janata Samajbadi Party, led by Upendra Yadav, has allied with K.P. Sharma Oli, while Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, led by veteran Madhesi leader Mahantha Thakur has made an alliance with the ruling five-party coalition. Madhes-based parties’ alliance with NC and UML is not based on ideology but rather on compulsions to do with winnable seats.

Who will the PM be?

Three leaders – Sher Bahadur Deuba, K.P. Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal – are in the race to become prime minister. But chances of the emergence of a new prime ministerial candidate cannot be completely ruled out.

If the pre-election coalition remains together, NC is highly likely to support Dahal as the prime minister for the first two and half years on the condition that Deuba takes over the post for the remaining parliamentary term.

Similarly, a power-sharing agreement between K.P. Sharma Oli and other parties cannot be ruled out after the elections. A power-sharing deal between like-minded parties would also have to reach a common understanding on the posts of the President and Speaker.

FILE PHOTO: Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba signs the oath after swearing-in ceremony at the presidential building in Kathmandu, Nepal, June 7, 2017. Credit: Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar/Files

Sher Bahadur Deuba in June 7, 2017. Photo: Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar/Files

Foreign powers

External forces are closely watching Nepal’s November elections.

The United States and its Western allies would prefer not to have a powerful communist government in Kathmandu.

At the same time, China is openly pushing either for a communist-party-led government or a government where communist parties maintain a strong influence. China is thus understood to be pushing for Nepal’s left parties to come together.

New Delhi has kept a deliberately low profile, and is visibly equidistant from all three prime ministerial prospects.

Will Nepal achieve political stability?

Chances are slim of Nepal acquiring political stability after elections, especially since there is a likelihood of a coalition government of more than two parties being formed. An agreement between either NC and Maoist or UML and Maoist to lead the government on equal terms could sow the seeds of instability.

In 2018, with the formation of a powerful government under Oli’s leadership, there was some hope of a period of stability, but parties missed that window of opportunity.

Despite political upheaval in the past two years, elections will occur within the constitutional deadline, thus narrowly avoiding a crisis. This will further cement Nepal’s nascent federalism and republicanism. Anti-constitutional forces will further weaken. Despite the political instability, there is a silver lining – Nepal’s democracy has spread strong roots.

Kamal Dev Bhattarai is a Kathmandu-based journalist and political commentator.

South Asia Watch: COVID-19 Cases and Domestic Politicking Keeps Region Busy

A round up of news of what made headlines in the past week in Afghanistan, Nepal, the Maldives, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Pakistan.

New Delhi: In the last week, rising number of COVID-19 cases dominated the front pages of newspapers in South Asia.

And yet, governments are not only grappling with the medical crisis but also rising prices and domestic volatility, as reflected by the diverse media spaces of the six South Asian countries surrounding India.

Afghanistan

Last Monday, Afghanistan’s public health ministry officials said that they had no medical equipment to detect the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. “While the case number in Afghanistan is lower compared to neighbouring countries, the ministry of health says the latest data put the number of cases at 40. However, it’s not known how many have the omicron variant,” reported Ariana News on January 17.

According to the World Health Organisation, 233 new confirmed cases were recorded over 24 hours on January 21 in Afghanistan.

For Taliban’s acting foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, the week began with a visit to Turkmenistan to discuss the Tapi project and ended with a trip to Norway – the first to a western capital – after the Taliban’s August 15 takeover. Norway claimed that the meetings were only to address the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan and did not mean a recognition of the Taliban.

Similarly, the European Union stated that it was re-establishing diplomatic presence in Kabul but asserted that it “must not in any way be seen as recognition” of the Taliban government there”.

On the issue of women’s rights, around 20 women protestors outside Kabul University were attacked with pepper spray last Sunday, AFP reported.

The Washington Post reported that one of the activists at the Sunday protest, Tamana Paryanai, had issued a video appeal apprehending her arrest. Subsequently, the Taliban General Directorate of Intelligence personnel raided her house and took her into custody on January 19.

A day later, the Taliban General Directorate of Intelligence tweeted that “a number of figures want to insult Islamic values so that they can achieve western citizenship”. It warned Afghan media to “strictly refrain from publishing false news and baseless rumours”.

On to relations with Pakistan, the Taliban stated that there had been clashes with Pakistani border forces who had fired 21 rockets into Afghan territory in the Kunar province on Sunday night. The spokesperson for Afghan border forces stated that Taliban personnel also fired rockets at Pakistani security guards. As per the Ariana News report, Taliban officials have recently announced that they were establishing 32 new check posts along the Durand Line to counter Pakistani attacks.

Earlier, Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid had dismissed Pakistan’s offer to send qualified personnel to support the Taliban government. “There are enough educated young people to work in the ministries and there is no need for outside manpower,” Mujahid said in an interview with BBC.

An Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan flag hangs over a street in Kabul, Afghanistan, October 19, 2021. Picture taken October 19, 2021. Photo: Reuters/Jorge Silva

Meanwhile, the Taliban interior ministry announced that it planned to issue new uniforms to police officers.

On January 22, seven people were killed, including four women, in a van bomb attack in Herat.

Meanwhile, Tolo News reported that the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment (ACCI) urged the Taliban to facilitate the re-opening of air corridors with other countries to spur exports. Afghanistan used to have air corridors with India, United Arab Emirates, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany. Currently, the air corridor with China is the only one operational through which 1,500 tonnes of pine nuts have been exported.

Highlighting the dire economic crisis, the International Labor Organization estimated that over a half million Afghans had lost their jobs since the Taliban took over Afghanistan in mid-August, a new report released on Wednesday said.

Bangladesh

Just like in the rest of South Asia, COVID-19 cases continued to surge in Bangladesh over the last seven days. According to the Directorate General of Health Services, the test positivity rate in the third week of 2022 was 25%, increasing from 13% in the previous week.

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases had also gone up steeply in the new year, with the total number of confirmed cases nearly double from the last week.

On January 21, the Bangladesh government announced the closure of all schools and colleges for two weeks till February 6. Further, all government and private firms will have to show vaccine certificates at work. Public offices will only work at 50% workforce. All gatherings of over 100 people have been banned.

Students apply hand sanitiser while attending a class at the Viqarunnisa Noon School & College in Dhaka, Bangladesh, September 12, 2021. Photo: Reuters/Mohammad Ponir Hossain

Meanwhile, on the domestic front, the Awami League-dominated government went full steam in formulating a legal regime for the Election Commission that will be tabled in the current parliamentary session. Polls are a fraught issue in Bangladesh, with the opposition of the day always accusing the ruling party of stacking the odds against them in election management. The main opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has boycotted the last two general elections over claims that the elections were not free and fair.

Last Sunday, the Bangladesh cabinet cleared the draft law for forming a new Election Commission stipulating the qualifications for appointing commissioners. Before previous elections, the President selected the commissioners, but now the law specifies that a search committee will pick the EC members. The decision of the search committee, whose selection process is not included in the draft law, will not be judicially challenged.

The Daily Star’s Mahfuz Anam observed that “given our history of election manipulation, questions naturally arise as to what lies behind this move”. He also noted that “indemnifying the past through laws with retrospective effect is a bad legal practice, usually used by military dictators or autocrats who give legal cover for their past misdeeds”.

On the diplomatic front, the government was also grappling to reverse sanctions imposed by the United States on seven former and current high-level officials of Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (Rab) over allegations of large-scale human rights abuse.

Foreign minister A.K. Abdul Momen said that the United States had trained Rab on their ‘rules of engagement’.

Along with strain over the sanctions, Dhaka-Washington ties were also impacted when Bangladesh was not invited for President Joe Biden’s Democracy Summit.

The outgoing US ambassador Earl R. Miller said in a media interview that “our governments” should continue to “have honest and direct conversations” on issues of democratic backsliding and human rights issues.

Bangladesh is already considering its reply to the US’s letter on whether it accepts the application of the Leahy amendment, which governs US assistance to entities accused of human rights violations.

Earlier in the week, home minister Asaduzzaman Khan said those who built Rab are now speaking against it. “They speak of human rights violations, but we can throw down a challenge to them – there is no country where encounters don’t take place,” he said. His remarks were in the backdrop of 12 international organisations urging the United Nations to ban Rab from its peacekeeping missions.

Accusing the BNP of lobbying the US to put pressure on Dhaka on human rights violations, the Bangladesh government said that it was probing the source of the opposition party’s expenditure on lobbyists in the US, amounting to around $3.75 million.

Families of victims of enforced disappearances had held a protest at Dhaka’s national press club, accusing security agencies, including RAB, of pressuring them to sign statements to deny their allegations of abductions.

Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB). Photo: Reuters

The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI) announced after a meeting with the Indian high commissioner that exports to the Indian market are expected to reach $2 billion for the first time by the end of 2022. In the last year, trade between the two countries increased by 94%.

The Dhaka Tribune reported that the Chinese embassy in Dhaka wrote to the commerce ministry that 383 additional export items will get zero-tariff access to Chinese markets, bringing the total number of products with zero tariff to 8930. In 2020-21, Bangladesh exported $681 million worth of goods to China, while bilateral imports stood at $13 billion.

The newspaper also reported that due to the strained relations with Myanmar, Bangladesh had dropped plans for Trans Asian Railway (TAR), which would have transported goods between India and Southeast Asia.

Bhutan

The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Bhutan increased by around 70% in the last seven days to 900 on January 22.

At a press briefing on Friday (January 21), Bhutan Prime Minister Lotay Tshering said that ‘living with the virus’ was not an option for the Himalayan kingdom. He noted that the government was enforcing lockdowns in dzongkhags (or districts) whenever there was a community case. “Lockdown is to eliminate the virus from society.”

With 70% of the districts under lockdown this week, Bhutan postponed the roll-out of the booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine from January 24.

The Kuensel reported that foreign workers allowed to enter Bhutan to work at Punatsangchhu Hydroelectric Project II were not subjected to antigen tests at the border.

An official of the Ministry of Health’s Technical Advisory Group (TAG) told reporters that there had been “several issues” with the testing of foreign workers at the point of entry. “We had issues on workers testing positive and sending them back home,” he said, adding, “When testing workers in Phuentsholing, we didn’t have many positive cases, so there weren’t any issues, but when bringing from Gelephu, there were concerns that they won’t be accepted back”.

Three batches of workers were allowed to enter Bhutan in April 2021, November 2021 and early January.

Even as most of Bhutan went under lockdown, the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MoEA) released projections of the stocks of essential items, nearly all of which are imported from India.

According to consumption patterns, MoEA calculated that Bhutan has stocks of LPG cylinders to last 19 days. Besides, diesel and petrol stocks would last just five and 12 days, respectively.

The Bhutanese revealed that Bhutan had made a new proposal for building the first rail link with India during the visit of economic affairs minister Loknath Sharma with his Indian counterpart, Piyush Goel.

With the land acquisition in the tea garden region of West Bengal putting a spanner in the works for the earlier proposed rail route between Bhutan and India, Thimpu suggested that it would be easier to have rail links through less inhabited areas of Assam.

Maldives

The Maldives recorded 2,349 new daily cases of confirmed COVID-19 infection on January 22, nearly double from 1,209 cases detected a week earlier on January 16. The positivity rate in the greater Male region is over 36%.

Maldivian President Ibrahim Solih took to Twitter to announce that he had tested positive for COVID-19. He added that he was doing well and was currently isolated at his residence.

There was some good news for Maldives’ largest industry, with foreign tourist arrivals increasing by 52.39% in the first two weeks of January 2022, compared to last year’s period.

According to the media reports, Indian visitors were fourth-highest, after Russia, Italy and the UK this year. However, India has earlier gone up to the top slot for source of foreign tourists to the Maldives after the pandemic hit the archipelago nation in 2020.

Last Sunday, photos emerged of the ‘India Out’ slogan being emblazoned on the walls of a school in one of Maldives’ northern atolls. This created a stir as Indian teachers are employed in large numbers in Maldives’ education system, including at the concerned school. The photos went viral after the visit of former President Abdulla Yameen, leader of the opposition alliance, spearheading the campaign to target the Maldives government over its close relations with India.

The Maldivian education ministry announced that it had received two different cases of Indian teachers being harassed on the streets by groups calling out ‘India Out’ at them.

“They have been requesting at schools to ensure their safety as well. Therefore, this is an extremely pressing concern of ours. This is deeply correlated to the future of our children…Should they not feel safe in those islands, they will not remain there to work. That would be a major loss,” the education ministry’s permanent secretary Ahmed Ali told Sun.

The ruling Maldivian Democratic Party’s chairperson Hassan Latheef asserted that former President Yameen should be arrested for the ‘India Out’ campaign. He alleged that teachers and other workers of Indian nationality were being targeted in a way that created fear among them, which was dangerous. He pointed out that “numerous Maldivian families” were living in India.

“We need to look into the hidden parts of this. There has to be a hidden agenda behind why someone who was President ‘yesterday’ is now coming out with a campaign calling ‘India Out’,” he added.

President Yammer’s party, the People’s National Congress, expressed disbelief at the Maldivian government’s claims about targeting of Indian teachers.

PNC’s President Abdul Raheem Abdulla claimed that the government wanted to spread the narrative that there Indians in the Maldives are in danger in order to bring in more Indian military personnel under the guise of protecting them.

Abdulla asserted that the sole purpose of the ‘India Out’ campaign was to make the Indian military in the country leave and that they have never encouraged targeting Indian nationals. “Indian teachers, doctors and nurses are not related to this. We are not against them.”

The ruling party and the opposition are currently in the midst of campaigning for the by-election to the Komandoo parliamentary elections. The ruling alliance partners pledged their support for the MDP candidate for the bye-election on request of President Solih, as per media reports.

Meanwhile, the government announced that it had paid allowances worth $155,000 to former President Yameen for the duration of his incarceration for charges of money laundering. Last November, Maldives Supreme Court overturned Yameen’s five-year sentence on the grounds that the state could not prove the provenance of the funds deposited in the former President’s bank account.

Nepal

More than half patients suspected to have contracted COVID-19 tested positive in Nepal this week, marking a sharp spike in the pandemic in the Himalayan nation. On Saturday, Nepal recorded 8,212 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the previous 24 hours, taking the countrywide tally to 904,796. A week earlier, Nepal had reported 3,703 new coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours.

Nepal will receive four million doses of Moderna vaccine purchased last year through COVAX’s cost-sharing scheme using the Asian Development Bank’s loan in the coming week. An additional four million doses of China’s Sinovac-CoronaVac vaccine is also expected.

Meanwhile, a senior health ministry official told a parliamentary panel that around 1.5 million vaccine doses were ‘missing’, as health workers did not keep proper accounts of usage.

Last week’s significant political development has been Nepal’s ruling alliance preparing the ground to hold parliamentary elections in three months. But, there are still a lot of doubts about the legality of the move and whether the opposition will support it.

Activists gather near the portrait of Nepal’s Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, also known as K.P. Oli, during a mass gathering in his support, after the dissolution of parliament, in Kathmandu, Nepal February 5, 2021. Photo: Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar

On Wednesday, Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal proposed that the parliamentary elections should be held early in April-May, in place of the proposed local polls that could be postponed for later in the year.

According to statutes, Nepal has to hold local, provincial and parliamentary elections by the end of 2022. The Election commission proposed that the local elections be held on April 27 and May 5.

In an interview with Kantipur, Dahal said that the proposal was made during a meeting of the ruling alliance leaders on January 18. He asserted that it was necessary to search for options, as the opposition, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), has not allowed the parliament to function. “We wanted to run the parliament for the whole term. We have been asking K.P. Sharma Oli (CPN-UML leader) to allow the House to function for the last six months. However, the main opposition appeared to be pursuing a policy of obstruction as long as this House exists. This situation will be fatal for democracy and constitution. So we are discussing why we should not go to the polls a few months before the election year,” he said.

The Kathmandu Post reported a day later that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was “not convinced as yet, but he is not completely averse to the idea”.

The opposition UML strongly opposed the proposal to hold the parliamentary elections early, claiming that it was an excuse to delay the polls to the local bodies whose term would end in May. They alleged that the Maoist Centre and the split faction of UML supporting Deuba were afraid of facing a massive defeat in the local polls.

On January 21, Prime Minister Deuba addressed the nation and stated that all three elections would be held within a year. But, he gave no further details.

On the same day, the ruling alliance met and seemed to have come to an understanding that the three elections could be held simultaneously.

Minister for communications and IT, Gyanendra Bahadur Karki, said that Friday’s meeting has decided to seek opinions of legal and constitutional experts regarding the confusion over holding local elections.

Nepal’s Minister for Communications and Information Technology Gyanendra Bahadur Karki said that to “reduce the election costs, conducting all three tiers of elections simultaneously could be a good option”.

However, with rumblings from several quarters, they agreed to first consult legal experts on January 23 before finalising the proposal, The Kathmandu Post stated. Within the ruling alliance, factions of the Nepali Congress and the Janta Samajbadi Party had also expressed reservations about delaying the local elections.

In other domestic news, six years after the promulgation of the constitution and creation of provinces, Province 2 was formally named as Madhes after a vote in the provincial assembly. It also chose Janakpur as the permanent provincial capital. The other candidates for names for the province were Janaki, Mithila, Bhojpura, and Madhya Madhesh.

Last week, Nepal’s Financial Comptroller General Office (FCGO) released a report that starkly demonstrated the financial dependence of local units on revenue sharing from the federal and provincial government. According to the report, the contribution of internal resources of the local government in their overall resources stood at just 8.68 per cent in the last fiscal year.

For the first time, Nepal provided foreign aid to another country when it handed over 14 tonnes of humanitarian relief to Afghanistan. Nepali foreign ministry’s joint secretary escorted the aid items in a chartered flight to Kabul on January 16 morning.

Pakistan

Compared to the previous period, there has been a weekly increase of over 110% in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Pakistan. As per the Pakistan government’s COVID-19 dashboard, 7,586 new daily cases were recorded on January 22, while this number stood at 4,027 on January 16. Pakistan’s positivity rate at the end of the week stood at 13%.

The working week began with a phone call between Prime Minister Imran Khan and the Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which they discussed Afghanistan. According to Express Tribune, this was their second phone call in four months. The Pakistani readout stated that Khan told the Russian President that he looked forward to Putin’s visit to Pakistan and his own visit to Russia at an appropriate time.

The press releases from both sides highlighted President Putin’s statement at the annual press conference in December that freedom of expression should not mean “violation of religious freedom”. The two leaders are expected to meet in Beijing, where they will attend the inaugural ceremony of the Winter Olympics in February.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Sputnik/Alexei Nikolsky/Kremlin via REUTERS.

There have been concerns about the Afghan Taliban’s restraining influence over the Tehreek-e-Taliban after the latter mounted an attack in the Pakistani capital that killed a policeman. On Saturday, Pakistani interior minister Sheikh Rashid admitted that talks with TTP had broken down. He also stated that talks had been held between Afghan TTP and the Taliban rather than with Islamabad.

Earlier last week, The Nation had “turned to a tribal jirga of prominent elders to persuade the TTP to shun violence and return to their country to live peacefully, according to people privy to the process”.

The TTP spokesperson had told the newspaper that there had been no meeting yet between the insurgent group and the tribal jirga. “The jirga has contacted us, but we sent it to the mediator, which is the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. So far, there is no discussion or meeting with the jirga,” TTP’s central spokesman Muhammad Khurassani told The Nation.

In other security news, a Balochistan separatist group has claimed responsibility for the Lahore bombing, which killed at least three people on January 20.

On the domestic political front, Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid met with the British ambassador to Pakistan on Tuesday to review the proposal to sign an extradition treaty. A day earlier, a special ministerial committee constituted by the federal cabinet held a meeting on Monday on the extradition treaty.

During a TV programme, Pakistan Federal Minister for Planning and Development Asad Umar said that the decision to allow former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif to travel to the UK on medical grounds was “100 per cent taken solely by Prime Minister Imran Khan”. He added that Khan now believes that the medical reports were falsified. Last week, the Punjab provincial government had constituted a board to review the PML-N leader’s medical reports.

Former Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif. Photo: PTI

On January 17, Pakistan People’s Party leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said the opposition parties were coming around to push for a no-confidence motion against PM Khan in the Lower House of Parliament. The PPP plans to hold a long march on February 27, while the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) announced an anti-government rally on March 23.

The opposition parties also continued to criticise the mini-budget and the State Bank of Pakistan Bill passed in government. The PML-N said that it would reverse the measures in the SBP bill that were inserted to meet IMF lending conditions.

There were two important developments in the Pakistani judiciary last week – the notification of the next Chief Justice and the appointment of the first women Supreme Court Justice

The Express Tribune reported on January 19 that the Pakistani government had offered $20.3 million as compensation to the families of Chinese nationals who died or were injured in the attack at the Dasu hydropower dam project in July 2021. Earlier last Monday, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) on political communication Shahbaz Gill tweeted on Monday that a sum of $100,000 and the $1,667 salary of Sri Lankan national Priyantha Kumara who was lynched by a mob in Sialkot on alleged blasphemy charges have been transferred to the account of his widow.

Sri Lanka

The new year has also seen the number of COVID-19 cases in Sri Lanka going up exponentially. On January 22, Sri Lanka recorded 827 new cases in the last 24 years, compared to 661 a week earlier.

Power blackouts were in the news in Sri Lanka, with Ceylon Petroleum Corporation struggling to supply fuel to the critical Kelanitissa power plant. According to The Daily Mirror, the power plant which generates 300 megawatts of water daily had to be shut down on January 18 due to a lack of diesel stocks. Sri Lanka had to rely on imported supplies while grappling with a severe foreign exchange shortage. Besides, 160MW Sapugaskanda power plant, Barge power plant and Uthuru Janani Power Plant had heavy furnace fuel supplies to operate only till January 22.

Power Minister Gamini Lokuge announced that the Central Bank of Sri Lanka would release $30 million to purchase fuel from five ships anchored in Sri Lankan waters, The Island reported. At the eleventh hour, fuel supplies were arranged only as a short term measure, averting blackouts for just a couple of days.

As The Morning recounted, the power crisis has been ongoing for the last month, with the power and energy ministers attempting to prioritise fuel supplies for their respective domains and pointing the finger at each other.

“Last week, (Energy minister Udaya) Gammanpila said that the (Ceylon Petroleum Corporation) CPC needs 30 days’ notice to supply fuel, and that the (Ceylon Electricity Board) CEB’s sudden requests are difficult to fulfil. However, (Power minister) Lokuge told the media that the CEB makes an annual order for fuel, and that the CPC should have planned accordingly. Although the CEB attempted to procure fuel from the Lanka Indian Oil Company (LIOC), the LIOC too said that it will be impossible at the moment to honour the request, as they too have difficulties in opening letters of credit (LCs)”.

India has extended a new line of credit of $500 million to Sri Lanka that will be primarily used to buy petroleum products from Indian oil majors.

The energy minister Udaya Gammnpila told The Morning Business that while the $500 million LoC from India had been announced, there were still some hoops to jump through for actual utilisation. “The offer documents relating to the $ 500 million credit line have been sent to Sri Lanka. Now the Indian Exim bank and the Sri Lankan External Resources Department must first sign the agreement relating to the credit facility, after which the agreement has to be vetted by the Attorney General and then it must be approved by the Cabinet of Ministers. We will start the procurement process only after we have completed the above steps. Therefore, it will take some time to obtain the fuel,” he said.

FILE PHOTO: A worker fills the tank of a motorised vehicle, known locally as a “three-wheeler”, at a Lanka India Oil fuel station in Colombo April 25, 2012. Photo: Reuters/Dinuka Liyanawatte

Earlier this month, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi had visited Colombo, during which the Sri Lankan government sought assistance and requested a restructuring of debt repayments. Sri Lanka has already secured a $1.5 billion yuan swap with China, out of which $500 million was used to pay for an International Sovereign Bond (ISB) maturing on January 18. In total, Sri Lanka has to repay $4.5 billion to China this year.

Central Bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal claimed that the Indian Ocean nation was ‘restructuring’ its debt repayments without IMF help. “When we told you that we are having the payments of our bonds with other inflows, what does that mean? That’s the restructuring. Because we have settled one loan,” he told reporters. “…if you ask any accountant who is advising banks, everyday restructuring occurs when you take one loan from a different bank which is at a lower price and you settle another loan which you have to settle, that is also restructuring”.

However, Sri Lanka Mass Media Minister Dulles Alahapperuma also noted that the government had never ruled out the possibility of reaching out to the IMF for assistance in future, and therefore it is inappropriate to make a bogeyman out of the IMF.

Sri Lanka has also asked China for a ‘gift’ of a million tonnes of rice. As per EconomyNext, this would be to ameliorate the expected crop loss during the primary Maha cultivation season from the chemical fertiliser ban. The Sri Lankan government had banned all chemical fertilisers imports in April 2021 as part of its campaign to become the first country to fully adopt organic farming. After seven months, the decision was partially reversed, faced with surging food prices and protests by farmers.

The Sri Lankan state minister for foreign affairs, Tharaka Balasuriya, said on Saturday that the country was exploring a Preferential Trade Agreement with China this year, rather than a Free Trade Agreement in view of concerns raised over the latter’s long negotiation process for the latter and the possible harm to domestic industries. “We are negotiating a PTA with Bangladesh as well as with the Maldives. Regionally, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is looking at an FTA within the BIMSTEC countries,” he added.

At the opening of parliament on January 18, Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa pledged to protect human rights, address the issue of missing persons and called for support of parliamentarians from the north and the east to help bring normalcy to the Tamil-majority region.

Tamil National Alliance MP M.A. Sumanthiran expressed disappointment in the presidential speech on the grounds that it didn’t allude to a political solution to the North and East.

Last Tuesday, a Sri Lankan Tamil politicians delegation, led by TNA leader R. Sampanthan, met the Indian High Commissioner Gopal Bagley. They handed over a letter addressed to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, requesting him “to urge the government of Sri Lanka to keep its promises to fully implement the provisions of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which ensures a measure of power devolution”.

Earlier, Ceylon Today had reported that many of the ‘upcountry’ Tamil and Muslim politicians backed out from signing the letter after they felt that the issues in the draft letter were too North-centric.

After the letter was given to the Indian envoy, Sri Lankan minister Gammanpila said that Tamil parties should have raised the matter with President Rajapaksa. “If our Tamil parties have any concerns or worries, they should raise them with our President, instead of the Indian Prime Minister as we are a sovereign country and not part of the Union of India,” he said.

Amidst Calls for Nepal’s CJ to Resign, There’s No Denying the Courts Have Been Politicised

In recent years, vital political issues have reached the courts leading to reports of various kinds of understandings between judges and politicians.

Nepal’s Chief Justice Cholendra S.J.B. Rana has been under pressure from the legal fraternity, a large section of the media and some politicians to resign before his term expires this year, amidst cries that the sanctity of the court will not be maintained otherwise.

Chief Justice Rana’s own colleagues in the Supreme Court of Nepal are also defying him and have stalled hearings, bringing the country’s judicial system to a complete standstill in what is an unprecedented chain of events in Nepal’s recent judicial history.

Yet, to date, charges against Justice Rana are not specific.

Justice Rana has maintained that as he was elevated to the Chief Justice’s position through a constitutional process, there is no question of him resigning under pressure. He has challenged his opponents to use constitutional measures to remove him.

Notably, impeachment is the only way to remove the Chief Justice if he refuses to resign voluntarily.

A key charge levelled against Justice Rana is that he has forged understandings with political parties to appoint his relatives in the cabinet and other constitutional bodies. He is also accused of indefinitely postponing the hearings of cases related to appointments in constitutional bodies to suit his needs.

As yet, there are no concrete pieces of evidence to prove these charges. His colleagues in court have not spoken publicly but have been expressing their frustrations to reporters. Amidst a growing call for their participation, political parties, both in the government and in the opposition, have not taken a position on this matter and have stated that this is an internal matter of the Nepal Supreme Court.

The point at which Justice Rana started to face criticism was after he led the constitutional bench of the Supreme Court of Nepal which delivered the verdict of reinstating the parliament, directing the office of the President to appoint Nepali Congress president Sher Bahadur Deuba within 26 hours, removing the chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist), K.P. Sharma Oli, who was at the helm since 2018.

Also read: Court Verdict Brings Nepali Parliament Back on Track But Uncertainty Still Looms

Since then, Oli has been criticising Justice Rana and the other judges in the bench, stating that the court went beyond its jurisdiction with this decision. Opposition party leaders have also alleged that there could be a possible nexus between the judiciary and the new coalition government led by Nepali Congress’s Deuba. As main opposition leader, Oli has been unrelenting in his criticism of the judiciary and has now said that the whole bench of five judges should resign en mass.

The latest episode began with local media reports alleging Justice Rana had pressed the coalition government to appoint his relative in the Deuba cabinet. Media reports suggest that PM Deuba was forced to appoint one Gajendra Hamal as a result. Following increasing pressure, Hamal resigned two days after he was appointed. Justice Rana has said that Hamal is an old face in the Nepali Congress party and did not need his support to become a minister in the first place.

Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. Photo: Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar/Files

With the legal fraternity eager to see Justice Rana go, the Nepal Bar Association, an umbrella organisation of lawyers across the country, has launched public protests with the same demand as well. In editorials on newspapers, some of which appear one-sided, Justice Rana is being asked to step down as well. Then there is the judges’ strike.

Protests by the Bar Association are not surprising but protests by a large section of a Chief Justice’s colleagues are a serious matter.

According to local media reports, Justice Rana has reportedly conveyed to his colleagues that he wants a graceful exit but it is unclear what this ‘graceful exit’ entails.

With the restoration of democracy in 1990, Nepal’s judiciary has grown increasingly political. Before that, too, there was an influence of the monarchy in the court but judges were not known to be divided along political lines. As politicians’ influence grew in the judiciary, judges started to knock the doors of political parties for personal and professional gains as well.

According to the Nepal constitution, the Nepal president shall appoint the Chief Justice on the recommendation of the Constitutional Council, and other judges of the Supreme Court of Nepal, on the recommendation of the Judicial Council.

It is widely believed that only the judges of the Supreme Court of Nepal, but even the judges of the high and district courts in the country are appointed on the basis of understandings among political parties. Meetings between judges of courts and politicians are often reported in the media. There are also instances in which senior advocates who play an active role in politics get key appointments in Nepal’s courts.

In recent years, vital political issues have reached courts. Political parties either try to influence judges to produce verdicts in their favour or try to use the impeachment threat. Even the topmost rung of political leaders have demeaned the judiciary publicly.

Kamal Dev Bhattarai is a Kathmandu-based journalist and writer.

Sher Bahadur Deuba Takes Oath as Nepal’s PM for Record 5th Time

The ceremony was delayed after Deuba said he would not take the oath of office until the President revises the notice of his appointment.

Kathmandu: Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba on Tuesday formally became the country’s Prime Minister for a record fifth time after the Supreme Court’s intervention.

The 75-year-old veteran politician took the oath of office and secrecy from President Bidya Devi Bhandari during a swearing-in ceremony here.

The ceremony, initially set to be held at 6:00 pm (17:45 IST), was delayed after Deuba said he would not take the oath of office until the President revises the notice of his appointment.

A five-member Constitutional Bench led by Chief Justice Cholendra Shumsher Rana, in its order, had said that Deuba must be appointed the Prime Minister in line with Article 76 (5) of the Constitution.

However, the president’s office has failed to disclose the article under which Deuba is being made the prime minister in the notice, The Himalayan Times reported.

After receiving some legal counsel, Deuba sent across a message to President Bhandari that he will not take the oath until the error is rectified, the paper said.

Also read: Court Verdict Brings Nepali Parliament Back on Track But Uncertainty Still Looms

The oath taking ceremony took place two hours later than scheduled, at around 8:15 pm, after the president’s office issued a revised notice.

Four new ministers – two each from Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-Maoist Centre – also took oath of office.

NC’s Balkrishna Khand and Gyanendra Bahadur Karki have been sworn-in as Home Minister and Minister for Law and Parliamentary affairs, respectively.

Pampha Bhusal and Janardan Sharma from Maoist Centre have been appointed Minister for Energy and Minister for Finance, respectively.

Chief Justice Rana, CPN-Maoist Centre chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ and senior leader of CPN-UML Madhav Kumar Nepal were also present on the occasion.

This is the fifth time that Deuba is returning to power as the Prime Minister of Nepal.

He has replaced incumbent 69-year-old K.P. Sharma Oli, who has accused the apex court of “deliberately” passing the verdict in favour of the Opposition parties.

Earlier in the day, Bhesh Raj Adhikary, personal secretary of President Bhandari, told reporters that “In line with the apex court’s verdict, President Bhandari named Deuba as the Prime Minister .

Previously, Deuba served as Nepal’s Prime Minister four times from June 2017 February 2018, June 2004 February 2005, July 2001 October 2002 and September 1995 March 1997.

Deuba is required to seek a vote of confidence from the House of Representatives within 30 days of his appointment as the Prime Minister, as per the constitutional provisions.

The Supreme Court on Monday overturned Prime Minister Oli’s May 21 decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and ordered the appointment of Deuba as prime minister.

It said that Oli’s claim to the post of prime minister was unconstitutional.

Reinstating the House yet again – the court had restored the House earlier on February 23 after Oli dissolved it on December 20 – the bench ordered to make arrangements for holding the House meeting by 5 pm on July 18.

In its order, the constitutional bench said President Bhandari’s decision to reject Deuba’s claim to form a new government was unconstitutional.

Oli, who was heading a minority government after losing a trust vote in the House, has repeatedly defended his move to dissolve the House of Representatives, saying some leaders of his party were attempting to form a “parallel government”.

(Shirish B. Pradhan)

Nepal: Supreme Court Says Deuba to Be Appointed PM, Dissolved Lower House Reinstated

Sher Bahadur Deuba, 74, has served as the prime minister on four occasions.

Kathmandu: In a landmark verdict, Nepal’s Supreme Court on Monday directed President Bidya Devi Bhandari to appoint Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba as prime minister by Tuesday and reinstated the dissolved House of Representatives for a second time in five months.

A five-member Constitutional Bench of the Supreme Court led by Chief Justice Cholendra Shumsher Rana issued the verdict stating that President Bhandari’s decision to dissolve the lower house upon a recommendation of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli was an unconstitutional act, delivering a major blow to the veteran Communist leader who was preparing for snap polls.

The bench issued a mandamus to appoint Deuba as the Prime Minister by Tuesday. Deuba, 74, has served as the prime minister on four occasions.

The court also ordered summoning new session of House of Representatives at 5 PM on July 18.

Chief Justice Rana also said that the bench has concluded that party whip does not apply when lawmakers take part in the voting to elect new Prime Minister as per Article 76(5) of the Constitution.

The bench comprising four other senior most justices – Dipak Kumar Karki, Mira Khadka, Ishwar Prasad Khatiwada and Dr Ananda Mohan Bhattarai – had concluded hearings in the case last week.

President Bhandari had dissolved the 275-member lower house for the second time in five months on May 22 at the recommendation of Prime Minister Oli and announced snap elections on November 12 and November 19.

Last week, the Election Commission had announced the schedule for mid-term elections despite the uncertainty over polls.

As many as 30 petitions, including one by the opposition alliance led by the Nepali Congress, were filed against the dissolution of the House by the President.

A petition was filed by the Opposition parties’ alliance with the signature of 146 lawmakers demanding reinstatement of the lower house of Parliament and appointment of Deuba as the prime minister.

Nepal plunged into a political crisis on December 20 last year after President Bhandari dissolved the House and announced fresh elections on April 30 and May 10 at the recommendation of Prime Minister Oli, amidst a tussle for power within the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP).

On February 23, the apex court reinstated the dissolved House of Representatives, in a setback to embattled Prime Minister Oli who was preparing for snap polls.

Oli, who is currently heading a minority government after losing a trust vote in the House, has repeatedly defended his move to dissolve the House of Representatives, saying some leaders of his party were attempting to form a “parallel government”.