Adani US Indictment: Jaganmohan Reddy Under Fire Over ‘Foreign Official #1’ Who Got Rs 1750-Crore Bribe

There is a swirl of controversy over the actions of the former Andhra Pradesh chief minister Jaganmohan Reddy who was at the helm of affairs in the state in the duration of the purported scandal involving bribes having been paid to Indians.

New Delhi: The mention of one “Foreign Official #1” who is alleged as having received Rs 1,750 crores as bribe from the Adani Group in the US Attorney’s Offices’s criminal indictment against billionaire industrialist Gautam Adani has caused a storm in Andhra Pradesh’s political circles.

There is a swirl of controversy over the actions of the former Andhra Pradesh chief minister Jaganmohan Reddy who was at the helm of affairs in Andhra Pradesh in the duration of the purported scandal involving bribes having been paid to Indians.

The indictment alleges that Gautam Adani himself was personally involved in talks in which “more than $250 million was promised in bribes to Indian government officials to secure solar energy contracts.” Adani Group has called the charges baseless and denied them.

The US laws allow investigations against foreign corruption if US markets are involved or impacted.

The public copy of the indictment anonymises several names and institutions, among which is “Foreign Official #1.”

The indictment notes that #1 was a citizen of India who resided in India. “From approximately May 2019 through June 2024, Foreign Official #1 served as a high-ranking government official of Andhra Pradesh, India,” it said.

In June 2024, Andhra Pradesh saw a change in government, with Jaganmohan Reddy being voted out of power and Chandrababu Naidu being elected chief minister.

The indictment said that Adani “personally met with Foreign Official #1 in Andhra Pradesh to advance the execution of a PSA between SECI and Andhra Pradesh’s state electricity distribution companies, including on or about August 7, 2021, on or about September 12, 2021 and on or about November 20, 2021.”

On September 13, 2021, Andhra media had reported Jagan meeting with Adani and other Group officials without him disclosing the fact or details of those meetings.

A report on September 13 said that in September 2021, Gautam Adani “along with his brothers” met Jagan at the then chief minister’s Tadepalli residence. There was no official update on the visit, the report said, noting that this goes against tradition when it comes to such a meeting.

Another report noted that the other Adani with Gautam was his brother Karan who was the chief executive officer of Adani Ports and SEZ Limited.

Before this visit, the Andhra Pradesh government made a move to sell its 10.4% stake in the Gangavaram port to the Adani Group, which at that time had around 89.61% stake in the port. The move was challenged in the high court.

The Communist Party of India (CPI) had demanded the Andhra Pradesh government disclose the details of this secret meeting between Jagan and Adani, following which the Andhra Pradesh state cabinet adopted resolutions to allow Adani group to set up 9,000 megawatt solar power plants in the state.

The party had asked why the contract was given to Adani alone when several contractors, and some closer home, could have shared the execution of the project.

The indictment said, “Approximately 1,750 crore rupees (approximately $228 million) of the corrupt payments was offered to Foreign Official #1 in exchange for Foreign Official #1 causing Andhra Pradesh’s state electricity distribution companies to agree to purchase seven gigawatts of solar power from SECI under the Manufacturing Linked Project.”

The indictment notes that Andhra Pradesh’s electricity distribution companies entered into a PSA [or power supply agreement] with SECI on or about December 1, 2021, pursuant to which the state agreed to purchase approximately seven gigawatts of solar power – by far the largest amount of any Indian state or region. 

SECI or Solar Energy Corporation of India was a company of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy under the Narendra Modi-ruled Union government of India. “SECI was stateowned and state-controlled and performed a function that India treated as its own. SECI was an “instrumentality” of the Indian government,” the indictment says.

A month after the alleged meeting between Adani and Jagan, in 2021, a report in an Andhra outlet said that Jagan was attracting attention over his use of special private jets owned by the Adanis and Ambanis. In October, Jagan had used an Adani flight to Chittoor to visit the Tirupati temple. In August, before his meeting with the Adanis, he had used a flight owned by the Reliance Group.

Adani Indictment: Group Loses Rs 2 Lakh Crore; Key Investor’s Stock Falls 20%

Adani Enterprises, the group’s flagship firm, suffered a 20% drop, while Adani Ports fell 15%. Most other group companies, including Adani Green Energy and Adani Total Gas, also saw declines in the range of 10-20%.

New Delhi: American investment firm GQG Partners, Adani Group’s biggest shareholder in the US, faced a sharp decline in its share price, tumbling as much as 23% on the Australian Securities Exchange on Thursday, November 21. The sell-off came after US federal prosecutors and the Securities and Exchange Commission filed charges against billionaire Gautam Adani and other executives of the Adani Group, alleging involvement in a $250 million bribery scheme. Adani Group has called the charges “baseless” and denied them.

GQG’s stock fell to AUD 1.98, closing the day down 20%, according to a Moneycontrol report.

The charges, filed by the US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of New York, allege that between 2020 and 2024, senior executives of a renewable energy company under the Adani Group orchestrated a bribery scheme. The scheme purportedly involved paying government officials to secure profitable solar energy contracts with public entities. A Canadian institutional investor, identified as the issuer’s largest shareholder, was also implicated in the alleged misconduct, according to a CNBC TV18 report.

As a significant investor in Adani Group companies, GQG Partners sought to reassure stakeholders amid growing concerns. The boutique investment firm, led by co-founder Rajiv Jain, stated it is closely monitoring the situation and reviewing its exposure to Adani stocks. GQG emphasised that over 90% of its clients’ assets are invested in companies unrelated to the Adani Group, ensuring a diversified portfolio.

Despite this reassurance, GQG’s ties to the Adani Group have drawn scrutiny. Since March 2023, GQG has increased its investments in Adani companies – including Adani Ports, Adani Green Energy, and Adani Enterprises – starting with a Rs 15,446 crore infusion and growing to nearly Rs 80,000 crore by late 2024. These investments came after allegations of financial irregularities were raised by Hindenburg Research earlier this year.

As of the quarter ending September 30, GQG Partners held stakes ranging from 1.5% to 2% in six Adani Group companies, according to a CNBC TV18 report. “Our team is reviewing the emerging details and determining what, if any, actions for our portfolios are appropriate,” a GQG statement said.

GQG Partners manages $159.4 billion in assets as of October 2024. The Adani Group’s holdings currently have a market capitalisation exceeding $200 billion, according to a Fortune report.

Also read: Adani Indictment: Congress Repeats Call for JPC Probe into ‘PM and His Favourite Businessman’

Shares of Adani Group companies plummeted on Thursday following the charges. At the start of trading, stocks across the group posted losses between 10% and 20%, erasing Rs 2 lakh crore in market capitalisation.

Adani Enterprises, the group’s flagship firm, suffered a 20% drop, while Adani Ports fell 15%. Most other group companies, including Adani Green Energy and Adani Total Gas, also saw declines in the range of 10-20%. In response to the developments, Adani Green Energy announced it has canceled a planned US dollar-denominated bond sale.

 

 

 

 

Adani Indictment: Rahul Gandhi Says Adani, With PM Modi’s Help, Has ‘Hijacked Hindustan’

‘If Gautam Adani is arrested, the PM knows that he will also be implicated (for being complicit in his crimes),’ the LoP said.

New Delhi: Hours after news broke that the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Attorney’s Office of the United States have charged billionaire Gautam Adani over his alleged role in a “massive bribery scheme,” the Congress has noted that the move vindicates the party’s longstanding demand for a probe into the industrialist’s scams.

Adani Group has called the charges “baseless” and denied them.

‘PM knows he will be implicated’

Leader of the opposition in the parliament, Rahul Gandhi renewed his attack on the Adani group in a press conference on the morning of November 21. He challenged PM Narendra Modi to arrest him but added that he was confident that Gautam Adani, who should be in prison, will not be arrested as the industrialist has the complete support of the prime minister.

“If Gautam Adani is arrested, the PM knows that he will also be implicated (for being complicit in his crimes),” he said.

Gandhi said that he has been raising concerns about the way the Adani-Modi duo has “hijacked Hindustan” that has led to loss of jobs, power price spike and inflation in the country.

He said that his primary message for people of this country is that Adani, with the help of Modi, has hijacked the institutions of this country, as the Congress had shown recently in the way SEBI chief Madhabi Buch was allegedly protected. He said Buch was responsible for protecting Adani stocks but she did not fulfil her primary role to protect retail share market investors. He added that the Congress will eventually expose the “political-bureaucratic” network of Adani which is being sheltered by none other than PM Modi.

“We will dismantle the nexus,” he said.

He also said that although he has no hope of a government probe being initiated by Modi, he demands a JPC probe and a thorough investigation into all of Adani’s projects. “If investigations reveal any wrongdoing by even opposition-ruled states, they should also be made subjects of probe, he said.”

As a LoP, Gandhi said, it was his responsibility to protect Indian citizens and he will keep raising the concern in the parliament in the upcoming parliament session and demand a JPC probe, too.

He said that the Adani group is being given institutional protection that has helped the industrial conglomerate to raise its valuation, and that in turn has allowed it to raise huge funds from banks and investors.

“[The] political finance, stock market, Adani ji nexus is dangerous for the country. Retail investors will be the most harmed but this is also dangerous for the country’s security. So much concentration of wealth in one group’s hand is dangerous for the future of this country. We demand Gautam Adani’s arrest and a thorough probe against his alleged wrongdoings,” Gandhi said.

Jairam Ramesh

Congress veteran Jairam Ramesh has posted on X that since January 2023, the Congress has been calling for a Joint Parliamentary Committee investigation into the various “Modani scams.”

Modani is a portmanteau of the last name of prime minister Narendra Modi and Adani.

“The Congress had asked a hundred questions in its Hum Adani ke Hain (HAHK) series bringing out the various dimensions of these scams and of the intimate nexus that has existed between the PM and his favourite businessman. These questions have remained unanswered.”

The indictment says that more than $250 million was promised in bribes to Indian government officials by the Adani group to secure solar energy contracts.

Congress has also highlighted SEBI’s lack of action in probing the purported nexus between Adani and various governments – now thrown in contrast:

“The SEC’s actions also cast poor light on the manner in which its Indian counterpart, namely SEBI, has gone about investigating violations of securities and other laws by the Adani Group and its abject failure to hold the Group to account for the source of its investments, shell companies, etc.,” he said.

The party has reiterated its demand for a JPC into the transactions of the Adani Group, “which is leading to growing monopolisation in key sectors of the Indian economy, fuelling inflation, and posing huge foreign policy challenges as well, especially in our neighbourhood.”

The indictment mentions that Gautam Adani personally met with an Indian government official to advance a bribery scheme.

It is noteworthy that in 2021, the Communist Party of India (CPI) had demanded the Andhra Pradesh government disclose the details of a secret meeting between then chief minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy and Adani, following which the Andhra Pradesh state cabinet adopted resolutions to allow Adani group to set up 9,000 megawatt solar power plants in the state.

The party had asked why the contract was given to Adani alone when several contractors, and some closer home, could be divided the project.

Gautam Adani Indicted in US Over ‘Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Bribes to Indian Govt Officials’

The US Attorney’s Office statement says that Adani is accused of personally being involved in the scheme, that he met with an Indian government official to advance the scheme, which took place between 2020 to 2024. The Adani Group has denied the charges.

New Delhi: The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Attorney’s Office of the United States have charged billionaire industrialist Gautam Adani over his alleged role in what they have called is a “massive bribery scheme.” The Adani Group has called the charges “baseless” and denied them.

US law allows foreign corruption allegations to be investigated if they involve links to US markets.

The Attorney’ Office has it in its statement that Adani is accused of personally being involved in the scheme, that he met with an Indian government official to advance the scheme, which took place between 2020 to 2024. “The defendants frequently met and discussed the bribery scheme, including evidence on several phones,” it says.

“More than $250 million was promised in bribes to Indian government officials, to secure solar energy contracts,” it says.

Adani, who heads the Adani Group, and his nephew Sagar have been indicted for their roles as executives of Adani Green Energy Ltd. Cyril Cabanes, an executive of Azure Power Global Ltd, has also been charged.

The SEC’s complaint against Gautam and Sagar Adani charges them with violating the antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws. The complaint seeks permanent injunctions, civil penalties, and officer and director bars.

In parallel action, the Attorney’s Office’s five-count criminal indictment in a federal court in Brooklyn charges along with Gautam and Sagar Adani, Vneet S. Jaain, with “conspiracies to commit securities and wire fraud and substantive securities fraud for their roles in a multi-billion-dollar scheme to obtain funds from U.S. investors and global financial institutions on the basis of false and misleading statements.” The indictment also charges Ranjit Gupta and Rupesh Agarwal, former executives of a renewable-energy company with securities that had traded on the New York Stock Exchange, and Cyril Cabanes, Saurabh Agarwal and Deepak Malhotra, former employees of a Canadian institutional investor, with conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in connection with the bribery scheme.

“Gautam S. Adani and seven other business executives allegedly bribed the Indian government to finance lucrative contracts designed to benefit their businesses. Adani and other defendants also defrauded investors by raising capital on the basis of false statements about bribery and corruption, while still other defendants allegedly attempted to conceal the bribery conspiracy by obstructing the government’s investigation,” stated FBI assistant director in charge James E. Dennehy.

Bloomberg had reported in March this year that such an investigation was afoot. The Adani Group had then told the news outlet that it was not aware of any such probe against chairman Adani. “As a business group that operates with the highest standards of governance, we are subject to and fully compliant with anti-corruption and anti-bribery laws in India and other countries,” it had said.

Adani group stocks faced a heavy drubbing during early trade today, with Adani Energy and Adani Enterprises tumbling 20%.

Before the Adani Group officially responded, Adani Green Energy Ltd announced the decision to halt its proposed $600-million dollar-denominated bond issue. “The company announced its decision to scrap the bond issue in a regulatory filing, citing the indictment as the reason for its subsidiaries’ plans to defer the bond offering,” a report said.

Adani response: ‘We are a law-abiding organisation’

In a media statement, the group has said that allegations made by the US Department of Justice and the US Securities and Exchange Commission against the directors of Adani Green are “baseless and denied.”

It sought to remind readers that the charges were allegations at present, quoting the US Department of Justice’s own disclaimer:

“As stated by the US Department of Justice itself, “the charges in the indictment are allegations and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.” All possible legal recourse will be sought.”

The group said that it has always upheld and is steadfastly committed to “maintaining the highest standards of governance, transparency and regulatory compliance across all jurisdictions of its operations.”

“We assure our stakeholders, partners and employees that we are a law-abiding organisation, fully compliant with all laws,” it added.

Attorney’s office charges

The Attorney’s Office breaks down the charges as such:

“…[B]etween approximately 2020 and 2024, the defendants agreed to pay more than $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials to obtain lucrative solar energy supply contracts with the Indian government, which were projected to generate more than $2 billion in profits after tax over an approximately 20-year period (the Bribery Scheme).”

Noting, as mentioned above, that on several occasions, Gautam Adani personally met with an Indian government official to advance the bribery scheme, and the defendants held in-person meetings with each other to discuss aspects of its execution, the indictment says that defendants “frequently discussed their efforts in furtherance of the bribery scheme, including through an electronic messaging application.”

Notably, in 2021, the Communist Party of India (CPI) had demanded the Andhra Pradesh government disclose the details of a secret meeting between then chief minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy and Adani, following which the Andhra Pradesh state cabinet adopted resolutions to allow Adani group to set up 9,000 megawatt solar power plants in the state. The party had asked why the contract was given to Adani alone when several contractors, and some closer home, could be divided the project.

The Adanis and the other indicted executives also extensively documented their corrupt efforts, the Attorney Office indictment alleges. “For example, Sagar R. Adani used his cellular phone to track specific details of the bribes offered and promised to government officials; Vneet S. Jaain used his cellular phone to photograph a document summarizing various bribe amounts the U.S. Issuer owed the Indian Energy Company for its respective portion of the bribes; and Rupesh Agarwal prepared and distributed to other defendants multiple analyses using PowerPoint and Excel that summarized various options for paying and concealing bribe payments (Bribery Analyses).”

Adani, Sagar Adani and Jaain also allegedly conspired to misrepresent Adani Green’s anti-bribery and corruption practices and conceal the bribery scheme from US investors and international financial institutions in order to obtain financing, including to fund those solar energy supply contracts procured through bribery.

Indian stock exchanges mentioned

It is noteworthy that the US Attorney’s Office noted that in March this year, Individual #2 [names of some individuals and financial institutions have been anonymised in the public copy of the indictment] “emailed employees of Financial Institution #2, Financial Institution #3 and Financial Institution #4 letters that the Indian Energy Company had sent to the National Stock Exchange of India and BSE Limited, both Indian stock exchanges.”

It said, “The letters falsely stated, among other things, that the Indian Energy Company “has not received any notice from the Department of Justice of U.S. in respect of the allegation referred to in the [2024 News Article]” and that the Indian Energy Company was “aware of an investigation” into potential violations of United States anti-corruption laws by a “third party.””

SEC charges

According to the SEC’s allegations, the bribery scheme was orchestrated to enable the two renewable energy companies to capitalise on a multi-billion-dollar solar energy project that the companies had been awarded by the Indian government. “During the alleged scheme, Adani Green raised more than $175 million from US investors and Azure Power’s stock was traded on the New York Stock Exchange,” the statement by the SEC said.

According to the SEC’s complaint, Gautam and Sagar Adani “orchestrated a bribery scheme that involved paying or promising to pay the equivalent of hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to Indian government officials” to secure their commitment to purchase energy at above-market rates that would benefit Adani green and Azure Power.

The scheme was allegedly in play in 2021, when in a note offering, Adani Green claimed that it raised $750 million, including approximately $175 million from US investors. “The Adani Green offering materials included statements about its anti-corruption and anti-bribery efforts that were materially false or misleading in light of Gautam and Sagar Adani’s conduct,” the SEC has said.

The charge against Cyril Cabanes, a former member of Azure Power’s Board of Directors, is under the US’s Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). According to the SEC’s complaint, Cabanes allegedly facilitated the authorisation of bribes in furtherance of the scheme while in the United States and abroad.

“As alleged, Gautam and Sagar Adani induced US investors to buy Adani Green bonds through an offering process that misrepresented not only that Adani Green had a robust anti-bribery compliance program but also that the company’s senior management had not and would not pay or promise to pay bribes, and Cyril Cabanes participated in the underlying bribery scheme while serving as director of a US public company,” said Sanjay Wadhwa, Acting Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement said.

“We will continue to vigorously pursue and hold individuals, including senior corporate officers and directors, accountable when they violate our securities laws.”

This article is being updated with details as they come in.

Can ASEAN’s Cybersecurity Push Protect People and Economies?

Taking the lead on cybersecurity, both through the Norms Implementation Checklist and the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team, is crucial to the security of people and economies in Southeast Asia.

As ransomware attacks and cyber-scams surge across Southeast Asia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is stepping up to create a more secure regional cyberspace.

With cyber criminals targeting the region’s critical infrastructure, including data centres, and young and old users at risk of falling victim to digital scams, ASEAN’s efforts are not only about digital security — they’re also aimed at protecting economic and social stability.

In October 2024, ASEAN members launched two major initiatives.

First, the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) opened its Singapore headquarters to boost collaboration on cybersecurity incident response, with Malaysia leading as the first overall coordinator.

This response team focuses on critical areas including information-sharing and strengthening public-private partnerships to bolster defences across the region.

In the same month, the Cyber Security Agency of Singapore and Malaysia’s National Cyber Security Agency introduced the Norms Implementation Checklist.

This list of action points aims to guide ASEAN nations in promoting responsible behaviour in cyberspace, based on United Nations (UN) cybersecurity norms.

Responding to a surge in cyberattacks

This year, the region has experienced a spate of major ransomware attacks. For example, a major incident occurred in June, when the Brain Cipher ransomware group disrupted the data centre operations of more than 200 government agencies in Indonesia.

Critical information infrastructure supports government and other essential services, so any disruption can cause severe socio-economic impacts that undermine public trust in government.

The threat of disruption from cybersecurity incidents extends to the private sector where, for example, in Singapore, three out of five companies polled had paid ransom during cyberattacks in 2023.

In addition, cyber scams are a major crime concern: they often impact vulnerable groups and are now so common they have become a regional security threat.

The rapid pace of digitalisation in Southeast Asia, coupled with low digital literacy and the ease of conducting online financial transactions, has facilitated a sharp increase in cyber scams such as phishing and social media scams.

Tackling cyber scams at the source is challenging. Transnational organised crime groups thrive in Southeast Asian countries with limited cybersecurity and insufficient law enforcement capabilities.

They often collude with local power structures: for example, they operate in conflict areas near the border of Myanmar, where they collude with militant groups.

Given these increasing threats, the launch of the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team is a promising effort to enhance cooperation among Southeast Asian countries.

The eight functions of the response team — which include information-sharing, training and exercises, as well as developing partnerships with academic institutions and industry — aim to strengthen regional coordination on cyber incident response.

Incident response is a critical part of the region’s attempts to mitigate the impact of malicious cyber activities such as ransomware and the epidemic of cyber scams.

Strengthening ASEAN’s strategic position in cyberspace

In 2018, ASEAN agreed to subscribe in principle to the 11 UN norms of responsible state behaviour in cyberspace.

While their full potential has not yet been realised, these 11 norms, set out in the UN’s Norms Implementation Checklist, could play a crucial role in helping ASEAN member states progress from ‘in principle’ to ‘in practice’ in the cybersecurity space. These norms aim to guide countries’ national cyber policies to align with the rules-based international order set out by the UN.

Adherence to these cyber norms (such as fostering inter-state cooperation on security, preventing misuse of Information and communications technologies, and cooperating to stop crime and terrorism) could, ideally, complement the work of the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team in responding to malicious cyber activities and fighting cyber scams.

Regional implementation of these norms could contribute to an environment of trust and confidence among ASEAN countries, to create stability in Southeast Asia’s cyberspace.

There are strategic reasons for creating regional cyberspace stability. As the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned, cyberspace is increasingly being exploited as a weapon in conflicts — by criminals, non-state actors, and even governments. This trend is inimical to ASEAN’s regional ambitions, strengthening the argument for nations in the region to proactively adopt a cyber rules-based order.

What’s more, ASEAN aims to be a zone of peace, freedom and neutrality. This goal emphasises keeping the region free from interference by external powers that could create insecurity.

As ASEAN established this goal in 1971 during the analogue era and Cold War, it is only appropriate that the organisation develop new initiatives to adapt to the digital era and Cold War 2.0.

ASEAN should also promote the Norms Implementation Checklist as a guide for other countries that are its dialogue partners but are embroiled in geopolitical and cyber rivalry (such as China and the United States).

Observers warn that the inability of the regional group to address the Myanmar civil war and rising tensions in the South China Sea, both of which involve cyber activities, is eroding its relevance.

This crisis consequently shapes how some ASEAN members and external powers view ASEAN centrality. It is also among the reasons why non-ASEAN security arrangements — such as the QUADNATO Indo-Pacific Four and Japan-Philippines-US alliance —are establishing cooperative efforts, including on cybersecurity, in the Indo-Pacific.

Taking the lead on cybersecurity, both through the Norms Implementation Checklist and the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team, is therefore crucial to the security of people and economies in Southeast Asia.

It could also prevent ASEAN’s centrality in regional security matters from eroding further. But this is contingent on ASEAN nations providing sufficient resources, policy thinking and political will to make these two initiatives deliver results.

Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman is a research fellow (Regional Security Architecture Programme) with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.

Maharashtra Polls: BJP Shares Fake AI Audio Clips of MVA Leaders Supriya Sule, Nana Patole

The BJP alleged these recordings were “proof” of Opposition leaders misappropriating bitcoins from a 2018 cryptocurrency fraud case to fund the ongoing state elections. 

Hours before Maharashtra went to polls on November 20, 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) posted at least three fake AI generated audio clips on their official X (formerly Twitter) handle. These clips, shared late on November 19, claimed to be recorded conversations involving Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) leaders Supriya Sule (NCP), Nana Patole (Congress), IPS officer Amitabh Gupta, and an employee of an audit firm, Gaurav Mehta. 

The BJP alleged these recordings were “proof” of Opposition leaders Supriya Sule (NCP Sharad Pawar) and Nano Patole (Congress) misappropriating bitcoins from a 2018 cryptocurrency fraud case to fund the ongoing state elections. 

The other two individuals, whose voices are allegedly part of the audio clips as alleged by the BJP are Amitabh Gupta, currently Inspector General, Indo Tibetan Border Police and a Gaurav Mehta, employee of an audit firm, Sarathi Associates.

What are the allegations against Supriya Sule and Nana Patole? 

Former Pune police officer Ravindranath Patil alleged that Sule, Patole, IPS Amitabh Gupta (then Pune police commissioner), audit firm employee Gaurav Mehta, and IPS officer Bhagyashree Navtake were involved in misappropriating bitcoins. News agency ANI reported Patil claimed he had been sent voice notes of conversations between the named people. 

BJP soon latched on to these allegations and posted the four alleged voice notes.

In the fake recordings, voices purporting to be those of Sule and Patole can be heard asking for cash in exchange for bitcoins stored in the four crypto wallets and also promising no investigation into the matter.

Sambit Patra, national spokesperson of the BJP also held a press conference on Wednesday morning further amplifying the AI generated voice notes.

An archive of these posts can be seen here, here, here and here.

Fact Check

BOOM found that the voice notes posted by BJP are fake and generated using generative AI technology. We tested the audio clips using TrueMedia.org’s deepfake detection tool available to journalists and researchers.

Three of the four audio clips showed substantial evidence of being AI generated. One of the voice notes, only five seconds long, showed little evidence of being manipulated most likely due to its short duration.

We also heard the voice notes and compared the voices of Supriya Sule, Nana Patole and IPS Amitabh Gupta with publicly available interviews on YouTube. None of the voices in the audio posted by BJP match the original voices of the three.

Voice note one: Audit firm employee Gaurav Mehta speaking to IPS Amitabh Gupta

In this voice note, a man identified as Gaurav Mehta, employee of an audit firm Sarathi Associates is heard speaking to IPS Amitabh Gupta who was then Pune police Commissioner.

We tested the audio clip using TrueMedia’s AI deepfake detection tool which showed that there was substantial evidence of manipulation. View the results here.

Also read: Maharashtra: In the Battle of Alliances, It’s the Regions Which Are Crucial

Voice note two: NCP (Sharad Pawar) leader Supriya Sule speaking to Gaurav Mehta

In this voice note, Sule is heard asking Mehta for cash in exchange for bitcoins without worrying about an investigation. 

We compared Sule’s voice in the voice note to her interview on Samdish Bhatia’s video podcast, Unfiltered By Samdish in 2023. Both voices sound different from each other. Sule’s original voice from an interview can be heard here.

The results TrueMedia’s AI deepfake detection tool confirmed that there was substantial evidence of manipulation. View the results here.

Voice note three: Congress leader Nana Patole speaking to IPS Amitabh Gupta 

In this voice note, Patole is allegedly threatening IPS Amitabh Gupta to convert the bitcoin for cash. 

TrueMedia.org’s tool determined there was little evidence of manipulation. View the analysis here. However, the recording is only 5 seconds long and is too short to be tested on current detection tools to give an accurate result.

We also compared Patole’s voice in the audio recording to his interview on YouTube channel, JistNews, published on November 19, 2024. The voice in the audio note did not match Patole’s original voice. His original voice can be heard here.

Voice note four: Conversation between IPS Amitabh Gupta and Gaurav Mehta

This is a voice note allegedly of IPS Gupta, the then Pune police commissioner speaking to Mehta, ensuring the compliance of cash for bitcoins as demanded by Sule and Patole.

We found several interviews by IPS Gupta on YouTube, none of them matching his voice as heard in the audio recording posted by BJP. His original voice from a March 15, 2024 interview can be heard here.

Also read: No Aadhaar or Voter ID: Here’s Where Chief Election Commissioner’s Claim on Inclusion of Vulnerable Tribes Doesn’t Check Out

TrueMedia’s tool confirmed that there was substantial evidence of manipulation by AI. The analysis can be found here

Additionally, the Misinformation Combat Alliance’s Deepfake Analysis Unit (DAU), of which BOOM is a part of, analysed the viral audio clips using deepfake detection tools Hive, Hiya, True Media, Deepfake-o-meter. It found three of the audio clips were AI generated while one was found to show little evidence of manipulation.

The state of Maharashtra, which is voting on Wednesday (November 20), saw aggressive campaigning by parties with similar names and little else in common. Currently, the state is led by the Mahayuti alliance comprised of the chief minister Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena, BJP and the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP. In Opposition is the MVA an alliance between Uddhav Thackery led Shiv Sena (Shiv Sena UBT), Congress and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP.

This article is republished from BOOM under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.

Gujarat Among Top Three States with Maximum PDS Leakage: Report

Uttar Pradesh tops the list in terms of absolute quantity of grains leaked, with a leakage rate of 33%.

New Delhi: The Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY), a free ration scheme, is facing significant leakages resulting in an estimated annual loss of Rs 69,000 crore, a study by an economic policy think tank has revealed.

Gujarat, along with Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, tops the list of states with the highest leakage rates, the report says.

According to the study done by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), 28% of the 71 million tonnes of grain distributed under the scheme between August 2022 and July 2023 was lost to leakages. This translates to 17 million tonnes of rice and three million tonnes of wheat, valued at Rs 69,108 crore in 2022-23, Financial Express reported.

The study highlights varying leakage percentages across states, with some making notable progress in reducing such loss. Bihar and West Bengal, for instance, have reduced leakages from 68.7% and 69.4% in 2011-12 to 19.2% and 9% in 2022-23, respectively. Uttar Pradesh tops the list in terms of absolute quantity of grains leaked, with a leakage rate of 33%.

To address these issues, the study suggests targeting the bottom 15% of the population with free grains and offering grains at half the minimum support price (MSP) to the 15-57% income group.

Also read: Rice or Cash? Maharashtra Experiment Reveals Gender, Household Dynamics

Implementing Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) and end-to-end computerisation of the Public Distribution System (PDS) programme could improve efficiency and accountability, as per the study.

Furthermore, the report emphasises that relying solely on grain distribution may not address the diverse dietary needs of the population, particularly for high-value foods like fruits, vegetables and protein-rich items.

The government has extended PMGKAY until 2028, providing five kg of grains per month to 813 million people, with food subsidy expenses reaching Rs 2.72 lakh crore in FY23 and Rs 2.12 lakh crore in FY24 (revised estimate).

The Punjab State Agricultural Policy Is Nobel of Intent, Without the Burden of Reason

Conflicting, contradictory or deliberately ambiguous messages are being conveyed to further aggravate farmers’ doubts on agrarian policy in Punjab.

Agrarian crisis in its plurality is writ large on the body politic of rural India. Landlessness, scarcity of land, falling incomes and rising costs of farming, mounting farm debts, suicides, ecological crisis manifesting in the degradation of environment, health, and water, lack of employment in farm sector, especially for women, and increasing hold of the corporate giants on the lives of farmers is part of everyday experience of the rural farming communities.

Successive state government have been promising agricultural policies to pull the peasantry out of this crisis. In the last 10 years two comprehensive proposals came out on Punjab’s agricultural policy: G. S. Kalkat-led policy draft was presented to the SAD government in 2013 and Ajayvir Jakhar led policy draft submitted to the Congress government in 2018. None of these drafts were discussed or recommendations acted upon. 

AAP came to power in Punjab in 2022 on the promise of a sound agriculture policy. Acting on its promise, the government revamped the Punjab Farmers and Farm Worker Commission and an 11-member Agricultural Policy Formulation Committee was constituted. The Committee submitted the  Punjab State Agricultural Policy to the Bhagwant Mann government in the fall of 2023. The draft was neither tabled nor made public. In the meantime, several farmers’ unions submitted comprehensive policy drafts to the Punjab government but received no response. Following the protests by SKM and other farmers when the Punjab assembly was in session in September, the AAP government released the Punjab State Agricultural Policy on September 18, 2024.

Punjab State Agricultural Policy

The proposed agricultural policy is spread over 19 chapters running into 200 pages. The preface says that the “main emphasis of the policy is to increase the profitability of the farms by promoting healthier agriculture production, value addition and marketing systems in a cooperative mode with efficient utilisation of natural resources while embracing biodiversity thus providing quality food for the society and raising the happiness index of the masses.”  

Taken together, the stated objectives of the policy claim that it will achieve a healthier agricultural production, value addition and marketing system which is globally competitive while at the same time accomplish the twin goals of higher profits and better earnings. It also says that it will generate productive employment in the farm sector and rural areas while conserving natural resource, promoting biodiversity and securing and developing the productive potential of agri-ecology, which will lead to raising the happiness index of the stakeholders.

Also read: ‘Punjab Govt Not Serious’, Activists to Block Flow of Effluents into Sutlej’s Budha Nala Starting Today

There are key premises which undergird these objectives. It assumes that enhanced profitability and improved earnings or the restoration of agriculture ecology of Punjab are consistent with a larger macroeconomic policy and agrarian strategy. It assumes that the employment opportunities in the farm sector and rural areas are not stymied by links with the non-agriculture sector. It assumes that the subordinate role of agriculture in the larger macro-economic growth strategy can be wished away and that a globally competitive agriculture is possible without playing by the global rules of trade. Finally, it assumes that an autonomous policy space exists which can be grabbed for holistic development of agriculture (whatever that means) and redistribution of rewards on the basis of value generated, the centralising nature of the centre-state relations notwithstanding. 

The key spatial unit and the foundation of policy intervention is the Natural Growing Areas (NGAs). Decentralised planning at the level of NGAs and building strong backward-forward linkages for various crops grown in these NGAs is suggested as the way forward. One of the modalities of achieving this is by operating in a “cooperative mode” assisted by multiple Centres of Excellence (CoE), 18 to be precise. There is no discussion as to what Centres of Excellence mean or the operational modalities they will follow. That it is a self-designation of excellence without approval by an independent, external process of evaluation, poses no problem for the report. While details are lacking on every aspect of the policy, the structure of CoE with 15 posts for each centre (p. 27) with details down to office clerks, chowkidars, and drivers appear prominently. 

The report claims that most of the NGA for existing crops have already been mapped and are in the records of agriculture and horticulture departments. Then what or who stopped it from implementing the NGA-mapped crop combination? Does the NGA-enabled diversification model ensure better or at least equal returns which the current paddy-wheat combination is offering?  If not, is the state government going to compensate the farmers for the shift? The draft policy is silent on it. The report does not explicitly answer why NGA-mapped diversification did not happen earlier, nor does it say why “certain crops are enforced” (p. 15) on farmers of Punjab. The implicit answer for this failure is “the anti-agriculture and anti-rural bias of vested interests” (p. 13).  But then again the report is silent on how the state policy will overcome this bias or blunt the power of the vested interests. In the absence of this concrete discussion, the foundational policy unit is reduced to mere expression of intention with no possibility of being adopted by the state government. 

Leap of faith: Fuzzy cooperation overriding the anarchy of the market

The key instrument in the proposed policy to overcome the failures of the current strategy is through organising farming in a ‘cooperative mode’, a kind of synergy between various sections of the rural population in Punjab. The key foundation of cooperation is clusters of three or four villages which come together to form multi-purpose cooperative societies throughout the state. As proposed, these societies will decide and grow the crop best suited to their Natural Growing Area using the most appropriate technology; they are expected to sell their products by developing their own departmental store outlets in major townships; promote and integrate with the commodity value chains; and, it is expected that the government will provide the support to sustain and strengthen these multi-purpose cooperative societies. 

In other words, this is a proposal of some kind of decentralised development approach as a way forward. However, when the national government is spearheading the oligopolistic take-over of the Indian economy, how will this decentralised economic development growth strategy be adopted by the state of Punjab? What is the basis to expect that big state institutions will be created by the state government when it is already outsourcing economic advisory roles to private consultancies that represent the interests of global capital?  

The recently created Punjab Development Commission is an independent think-tank to support the development needs of the state and convert the state’s vision of rangla Punjab (vibrant Punjab) into a reality. It is also an example of the state government’s vision on policy advisory for Punjab’s development. 

‘Cooperatives’ come up in different sections of the draft policy sometimes as a recommendation of adopting a “cooperative mode” in farming, and at other times as cooperative social relations or as a mode of organising village life. Assuming that the cooperatives in the policy document allude to promoting production and marketing through the cooperative mode, are cooperatives a new idea?  They have been around in Punjab. In the early five-year plans, state policy attached a great deal of importance to cooperatives to enable small farmers to acquire greater bargaining strength in the economy vis-a-vis the big players, through access to credit, input and produce markets. But the said purpose was not quite realised. These are lessons to be drawn from but there is not even a cursory reflection in the policy document before asserting a renewed faith in cooperatives.

Any endorsement for a cooperative mode will do well to acknowledge that the Union government formed a new Ministry of Cooperation in 2021 with an objective to provide a separate administrative, legal and policy framework for strengthening the cooperative movement. ‘Sahkar se Samriddhi’ was declared a “historic move” in the direction of cooperative federalism. This move by the Union government is overriding the powers of state legislatures as cooperatives are strictly within the domain of the state government and legislatures. The very idea behind cooperative federalism, it was said, is to “bring states together as ‘Team India’ to work towards national development agenda”.  It involves ‘structured policy initiatives and close engagement’ of the Centre with the states that seeks to homogenise the development approaches of the Union government and the states.

How is Punjab supposed to introduce its own version of ‘cooperation’ as a key component to its intervention in agriculture when the Union government is increasingly inclined to depend on global markets for agricultural growth? The attempt by the Union government to impose the farm laws on states and the very essence of these laws were a strong testimony to its approach towards agriculture.  How is it even a relevant recommendation if the challenges of implementation are not brought under discussion? 

How will these cooperatives ensure that they meet the requirements of small and marginal farmers who are at the centre of the agrarian crisis in Punjab?  How will they create machines and technology which can be shared by small-scale farmers? As far as the policy is concerned, all these issues are the mandate of the Centres of Excellence that are yet to be created. That means that a clear agriculture policy will emerge only after these institutes are put in place and ready to give recommendations. In that case, what is this policy draft doing? 

The outcome of this lack of clarity is reflected in every recommendation of the policy. In each chapter the recommendations are a wish list without detailing how the government will act to achieve these goals or even their feasibility in the context of overall development strategy. There is a clear danger that the space left vacant by the policy will be seized by the anarchy of the market to the benefit of those whom the policy did not set out to benefit.  

‘Happiness index’ is certainly not going to increase with deepening ties with imperialist development and building links with global commodity chains monopolised by giant corporations. It is linked with ability to alter development priorities. However, the proposed policy draft seems to suggest its own pathway about altering development priorities without presenting a coherent framework rooted in any of the existing critical approaches to development theory.  

Prioritising social and ecological wellbeing requires radical redistribution, reduction in the material size of the global economy, and transforming societies to ensure environmental justice. 

Punjab is reeling under ecological crisis, but the proposed policy devotes two brief paragraphs to ecology and says nothing on providing support to farmers for transition to sustainable agriculture. “Ensuring happiness” and a good life for all require all policies and corporate strategies to be rethought from the perspective of climate change, ecological limits to growth and resource distribution.  Transition to sustainable modes of farming requires state support. It requires reconsidering the inherent inequalities of current levels of consumption and concrete steps to enable the marginalised majority to improve their wellbeing. 

The document seems to be in a hurry to usher in Punjab’s very own golden age, where the state is bound by the “holy task” of raising the “happiness index” and famers are committed to a “sacred profession”. It wants us to believe that the economic and social interests of different sections or classes in the rural society will come in perfect harmony by making “cooperation” as the mode of decision making.  

Also read: Farmers in Punjab Carry Out Indefinite Blockade of Highway Over Poor Lifting of Paddy

Specific policies on land, tenancy, labour and women farmers 

Land is at the heart of agrarian crisis. High inequality in land distribution stemming from colonial policies of land settlement and failed land reforms, have created a precarious life situation for a majority of small and marginal farmers and the landless. The farmers’ protest and ongoing movements of landless, agriculture labourers and Dalit people have brought unequal distribution and land scarcity issues to the forefront. Dalit farm holdings as percentage of all operational holdings in Punjab is 5.76%. All-India it is 11.9% and the area of Dalit farm holdings as a percentage of total area is 3.59% as compared to 8.6% all India according to the Agriculture Census 2015-16.

The policy claims:

“Punjab had accomplished the land reforms, especially consolidation of land holding in the years following national independence. The rural economy with diverse agriculture, based on on-farm produced inputs had been generating quality food with high dietary value to fulfil nutritional and other needs of rural families”.

Following this assumption, recommendation on land focus on two specific issues.

The first is the digitisation of land records “for ensuring transparent and efficient land transactions”. It is well known that the union government has been trying to create vibrant land sale markets to attract foreign investment and showcase the country as a credible alternative for capital in search of new avenues. Right after coming to power in 2014, the NDA government tried to dilute the provisions in Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Re-Settlement Act 2013, reducing the powers of farmers and making land acquisition easier for private corporate projects. The amendments had to be rolled back due to the pressure from farmers but removing protections for smallholders and enabling greater liquidity of land by creating one homogeneous land market in the country so that land could be easily transacted, remains a priority. To achieve this goal, Niti Aayog has been pushing better land records, digitisation and integration of all records relating to titles, formalising cadastral maps of all plots of land, defining a structured timeline for timely resolution of property disputes and making public land disputes data etc.

The Punjab Agriculture policy draft is an almost verbatim repeat the argument with a seemingly innocent concern that “out-dated land records, unclear titles and existing land laws have driven many individuals towards court cases. As a result, it breaks fraternity, kinship, and social harmony and weakens the economic position of the people”.

Facilitating the creation of homogenous land market without acknowledging complex ownership patterns and looming interests is not going to pave the way for digitisation to strengthen fraternity.

The second policy recommendation is tenancy law reform.

The report mentions that 24% of the cultivated area in Punjab is under tenancy and tenancy is riddled with complex issues – contracts are verbal, tenants do not get compensation for failed crops, unregistered tenants cannot become effective members of any cooperative credit society, there is reverse tenancy, and there are NRIs leasing out lands, etc. The section concludes by recommending, “…Therefore, the tenancy laws need to be reformed to protect the interests of both the tenant and landowner. The rental income from leased land should be exempted from income tax, as income derived from agriculture is currently exempted”.

How is income tax exemption going to ensure, for example, that unregistered tenants become members of cooperative credit society or get compensation for failed crops? The policy fails to suggest any concrete step to protect the rights of the tenants. Liberalising the lease market could potentially open doors for corporate investors into agriculture. In land-strapped Punjab this will hurt and work to the disadvantage of small and marginal farmers by restricting their access to land. 

Employment under MGNREGS: Branding symptom of economic distress as potential

The proposed policy states:

“Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act 2005 is a significant instrument for the provision of employment for rural labour, both skilled and unskilled. In Punjab, over 27 lakh workers are registered under the MGNREGA scheme…Only 13,534 households were provided with 100 days of wage labour. There is a huge potential to employ rural labour under the MGNREGA schemethe economic conditions of farm workers can be improved through the MGNREGA scheme.” (Emphasis added).

Rising demand for low-paying labour work under MGNREGA points to an ultimate failure of economic policy to generate gainful employment. It’s a symptom of economic distress and not a potential. MGNREGA provides low-paying work on minimum wage for unskilled manual work and the real wage rate has remained stagnant essentially. The current MNREGA wage rate of Rs 322 in Punjab is grossly inadequate to meet even basic needs. There is need for policy to create employment which provides a living wage to all farm workers, which would cover food, clothing and shelter along with the educational, health and social needs of the families. Moreover, what sense does a policy recommendation like 200 days of MNREGA make when it’s not even a Punjab government scheme?

The recommendation for women farm workers is “special attention should be given to promoting women-centric skills like stitching, embroidery, child/women healthcare services etc”. Stitching, embroidery are dead-end skills which hardly provide an opportunity for improving livelihood situations. 

The policy recommendation on access to land repeats the already existing legal provision of one-third of the Panchayati land and other common lands to be leased out to farm workers. But in the document, it comes with an added conditionality: “This land should be meant for the Integrated Farming System (IFS) under cooperative farming”. Does this mean that the lessee cannot farm the land by any other way anymore? Is this within the rules of The Punjab Village Common Lands (Regulation) Rules? What is the framework for the Integrated Farming System (IFS) which will govern the lease of land to Dalits?

In another section, the policy draft mentions the need to establish a ‘Centre of Excellence for Integrated Farming and Integrative Income Support’ at PAU to ensure higher profitability for the 3.5 lakh small and marginal farms. Is the leased land to Dalits to be governed by this ‘Centre of Excellence’? 

A longstanding demand of the landless labourers and the unions representing the landless has been the long term lease of the panchayati land which is reserved for Dalits. However, while the proposed policy agrees that long-term lease is a better and efficient utilisation of land in a separate section of the report, when it comes to leasing land to the landless, no such recommendation is made.  The lack of empathy and indifference to the demands of farm workers is extremely disappointing and a continuation of the brutal policy bias of the past. 

Also read: As Paddy Glut Pushes Punjab Towards Major Agrarian Crisis, Questions Over Mann and Modi Govts’ Delayed Response

Why is the acquisition and redistribution of excess to ceiling land not part of the recommendation, one wonders?  The recommendations such as pension plan and compensation for landless, which are being trumpeted as most progressive, are radical only if they are a part of an overall redistributive framework which recognises the value of labour. 

Writing women farmers and workers out of policy

Women farmers and workers have been displaced from productive roles in agriculture in Punjab and long written out of policy. While there are women cultivators and agricultural labourers, women are not counted as ‘farmers’ by government data collection sources since most women do not have land titles in their name. As per the Agriculture Census 2015-16, in Punjab, out of a total 10.93 lakh landholdings, there are just 17,000 (about 0.08%) in the name of women and the area operated by women landholders in Punjab is 43,000 hectares (0.23%) out of total 39.54 lakh hectares (all India figure is 11.72%).

It is deeply disappointing that the section on ‘Women in Agriculture’ in the draft policy ends up being a story of surrender and despair. There is complete policy erasure of women’s claims to productive involvement in farming. Rather than suggesting means to bring women back to the productive sphere, the draft recommends training women and developing skills for undertaking “subsidiary occupations” and skills related to “household activities such as stitching, embroidery etc to upscale their knowledge as well as family income”. 

Women farmers have experienced dispossession and the processes of dispossession have disempowered them in profound ways. Women have also been bearing the ultimate burden of farmer suicides which plunge households into deep crisis. They are left without assets but with the burden of indebtedness. In the absence of formal recognition as farmers, women cultivators are excluded from government schemes and loans, and are thrown to microfinance sharks. 

As far women’s land rights are concerned, the policy recommends: “To encourage women empowerment and reduce gender bias in society, the land property rights of women should be looked upon”

It is disappointing that the agriculture policy draft fails to acknowledge the invisibilisation of women farmers and the policy makers conveniently recuse themselves from the responsibility of specific recommendations to remedy the situation. The document pays lip service and repeats the cliché, “social and other barriers” which “limit the participation of women in the workforce”.  Not a single example of what these barriers are and how they are being resisted by women farmers and workers is made. The policy draft has let women down. 

Where is the budgetary commitment from Punjab government?

The Mann government circulated the Agricultural Policy without a budgetary or temporal commitment. Why invite policy proposals if no resources were to be set aside? 

From the reports in the media, Punjab Development Commission (PDC), the independent think tank of the Punjab government with a big budget attached to it, is also drawing up policy proposals for agriculture. If so, then what is the purpose of the draft in hand? 

Clearly, conflicting, contradictory or deliberately ambiguous messages are being conveyed to further aggravate farmers’ doubts on agrarian policy in Punjab. The policy draft is trapped in a spiral of untenable propositions, some made untenable because of the shrinking space for policy autonomy which the draft fails miserably to identify, but also because it chooses to stay silent on crucial matters where it could have taken the lead to bring sections of farmers out of distress.  

Navsharan Singh is an author and activist. Atul Sood is a JNU professor.

Nifty 50 Takes a Hit, Investors Lose Rs 50 Trillion

The Nifty and Sensex, which hit record highs on September 27, have since fallen into correction territory. The Nifty dropped 10.4% to 23,532.7 and the Sensex declined 9.76% to 77,580.31.

New Delhi: Tepid earnings, combined with rising US bond yields and a surge in primary market issuances, have led to a significant correction in Indian equity markets. Investors have seen nearly Rs 50 trillion in wealth erode over the past seven weeks, according to a Mint report.

The earnings trajectory of India’s Nifty 50 companies has taken a hit, with estimates for FY25 revised downwards by 7% over the last six months. Analysts now project earnings growth for FY25 at just 5%, marking the weakest performance since FY20.

The September quarter (Q2FY25) witnessed a subdued 4% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in operating profits for India Inc – the slowest in at least four quarters. This was accompanied by a modest 6% y-o-y revenue growth and operating profit margins contracted for a sample of 2,626 companies (excluding banks, financials, and oil marketing firms), according to a report in the Financial Express.

According to Kotak Institutional Equities, the weak Q2 performance reflects a broad-based slowdown in the economy. “Companies have broadly disappointed versus modest expectations on net sales, EBITDA and net profits,” the firm noted in a report. EBITDA is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation.

Higher input costs further squeezed margins, with the raw materials-to-sales ratio rising by 22 basis points y-o-y for the aggregate sample. Some companies, like Asian Paints, faced pressure from increased spending to maintain market share, while others, such as JSW Energy, dealt with lower short-term sales and reduced tariffs.

Notable laggards include Tata Steel (-3.2% y-o-y sales decline), Dabur India (-5%), and Ashok Leyland (-9%), reflecting weak volumes and muted demand. Meanwhile, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (+16.5% y-o-y) and Larsen & Toubro (+21% y-o-y) were among the few standout performers.

Also read: FPI Outflows from Indian Markets in October are Globally the Highest, Financials Hit Hard

The Nifty and Sensex, which hit record highs on September 27, have since fallen into correction territory. The Nifty dropped 10.4% to 23,532.7 and the Sensex declined 9.76% to 77,580.31. Broader indices have also been hit, with the Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 falling 10.7% and 10.1%, respectively, from their September highs.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been net sellers, offloading shares worth Rs 1.16 trillion over the past month and a half. While domestic institutional investors (DIIs), led by mutual funds, purchased Rs 1.33 trillion, the supply from large Initial Public Offerings (IPO) and Qualified Institutional Placements (QIP) exceeded demand. IPO is the process by which private companies sell their shares to the public intending to raise equity capital from public investors while while QIP is a way for companies listed on Indian stock exchanges to raise money by selling shares or other securities to qualified institutional buyers.

Despite the correction, analysts caution that Indian equities remain expensive. The Nifty trades at 18.64 times one-year forward earnings, above its five-year average of 18.21 times. Valuations in the small- and mid-cap segments are even more stretched.

Ashish Gupta, CIO of Axis Mutual Fund, highlighted the disproportionate supply-demand dynamics, noting that recent equity issuances have significantly outpaced mutual fund inflows. “If FIIs keep selling the way they have since October, DII inflows though necessary would be unable to absorb the supply, subjecting the markets to ‘vagaries of foreign flows’,” Gupta told Mint.

Adding to the pressure, US bond yields have climbed, diverting foreign money from emerging markets like India to safer US assets. The 10-year US Treasury yield has risen by 73 basis points since September, despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates, driven by inflation fears and fiscal deficit concerns.

While analysts do not rule out a potential rebound in the near term, the consensus is that it may lack durability. “We could get a bounce, but it wouldn’t be a durable one,” Shankar Sharma, founder of GQuant Investech, told Mint.

Bengal’s ‘Tab Scam’ Exposes Significant Vulnerabilities in Data Storage

Money that was supposed to be sent to school students was siphoned off to other accounts through sophisticated techniques.

Kolkata: West Bengal’s ambitious ‘Taruner Swapna’ scheme, which translates to ‘dreams of the youth,’ was designed to provide Rs 10,000 to Class 10 and 12 students for digital devices. Now, it has been marred by a significant cyber fraud.

Over 2,000 students have been affected in what has been an effort by cybercriminals to exploit system vulnerabilities to siphon off funds. These actors, many from outside the state, have used sophisticated techniques to change information on various data records, making sure that the money which was to be given to the students went to other accounts instead. In the process, students’ records were also accessed.

Bratya Basu, the state’s education minister, told The Wire that the National Informatics Centre has also been asked to investigate the matter thoroughly. “The government has taken note of the issue where a section of higher secondary students across the state have not received their tablet funds,” he added.


While the full extent of the crime is still being learnt, West Bengal Police have already registered 93 first information reports and arrested 11 individuals in connection with the fraud. The scam has impacted students across multiple districts, particularly in South 24 Parganas, where the highest number of cases have been reported.

‘Inadequate’ security measures

Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has promised students who have lost money of a “refund”. Addressing reporters last week, she stated, “The group responsible for this scam has been identified. Our administration is rough and tough. A Special Investigation Team has been formed and people have already been arrested. Let the administration do its job.”

A cybercrime expert investigating the case, who requested to not be named, told The Wire that there were clear lapses in the system. “The security measures were inadequate, and there was a lack of oversight. It seems that many schools kept theirs students’ name lists, bank account numbers and IFSC codes.”

The investigation into the tab scam has revealed a dense network of individuals, including farmers, tea garden workers, lottery ticket sellers, and even home tutors, who operated through cyber cafes. They allegedly exploited their access to school login credentials to change bank account numbers and IFSC codes to divert the funds meant for the students. In some cases, malware and rented bank accounts were used to facilitate the transfers. Investigators have unearthed a network involving cybercafé owners, contract-based school staff, and also insiders who manipulated government portals to divert the money.

Cyber experts have pointed to glaring vulnerabilities in the scheme’s implementation. “Discrepancies in data linking, outdated computers, and irregular portal maintenance may have facilitated the fraud. While professional hackers might have exploited malware or system loopholes, the pattern here suggests errors in data entry and verification. While the government sends funds directly to recipients’ accounts, the fact that so many are affected indicates systemic issues that require thorough investigation and clarification.,” said cyber law expert Rajarshi Roy Chowdhury.

Headmasters blamed

The tab scam initially surfaced with complaints lodged at two police stations in Kolkata. Subsequently, district school inspectors got non-bailable cases registered against the headmasters of several affected schools. However, some of the accused headmasters claim they were falsely implicated for being among the first to report the issue.

“The government is framing the headmasters. We believe the scam occurred due to flaws or weaknesses in the government portal. A criminal gang was altering the IFSC codes uploaded from the schools,” said Sukumar Pain, the secretary of the state teachers’ association, ABTA.

Many of those arrested in connection with the fraud have direct ties to the ruling party Trinamool Congress, including the son of a prominent local leader in Malda, raising uncomfortable questions about insider involvement.

Slamming the state government, BJP Rajya Sabha MP Samik Bhattacharya said, “Rice is being stolen from mid-day meals, lentils are being stolen from ration supplies, river sand and mountain stones are being looted – it’s no surprise that even the funds for tablets are being stolen here. To establish the rule of law in this state, 50 new jails need to be built quickly!”

Translated from the Bengali original by Aparna Bhattacharya.