Watch | ‘CAA Violates Secularism, Basic Structure of Constitution’: A.P. Shah

In an interview with Karan Thapar that is likely to annoy the government and the SC, the former Chief Justice of the Delhi high court says that the apex court “has abdicated its duty to defend civil rights”.

In an interview that is likely to annoy the government and upset the Supreme Court, Justice Ajit Prakash Shah, former Chief Justice of the Delhi High Court and former Chairman of the Law Commission, has said that the Citizenship Amendment Act “unquestionably violates secularism and, therefore, the basic structure of the constitution”.

Later in the interview, Justice Shah said he was “deeply disappointed” by the Supreme Court’s prioritisation of important cases connected with fundamental civil rights and, in particular, habeas corpus.

He said, “The Supreme Court has abdicated its duty to defend civil rights and is behaving like an executive court that defends the government.”

In a comprehensive 40-minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Justice Shah said that there could be no second opinion about the fact that the Citizenship Amendment Act violates the constitution. He said at five different levels it negates Article 14’s guarantee of equal treatment under the law. He said it was neither reasonable nor rational but, in fact, arbitrary. Justice Shah said he could not understand the deadline of December 31, 2014. It suggested that either persecution of minorities stopped after that date or the Indian government did not care about it.

Justice Shah said what is more important is that the CAA violates the basic structure of the constitution as laid down by Kesavananda Bharati in 1973 of which secularism is a key point. He said the discrimination against muslims was itself a violation of the basic structure. He said India’s constitution-makers – 80% of whom, he added, were Hindu – would be offended and feel betrayed by the CAA.

Watch | ‘Colloquially Speaking, BJP is Fascist’: Karan Thapar Interviews Pratap Bhanu Mehta

Questioned about the prime minister’s claim that the “Act illustrates India’s centuries-old culture of acceptance, harmony, compassion and brotherhood”, Justice Shah said that whilst he agreed India has a culture of acceptance and brotherhood the Act does not illustrate it but contradicts it. He said he completely disagrees with the prime minister.

Speaking about home minister Amit Shah’s claim that “Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist and Christian refugees from Pakistan have as much right over India as you and I … (because) they are the sons and daughters of India”, he said this was not a position supported either by the constitution or by the facts of history. The constitution does not grant these religions a greater claim over India than Islam. Secondly, if refugees from these religions have a claim because they were once part of pre-partition India then so do the muslims of Pakistan. They too were a part of pre-partition India.

Speaking about the manner in which CAA has altered the Indian concept of citizenship, Justice Shah said that the constitution-makers had refused to define citizenship in terms of religion. Instead, they had opted for citizenship by birth. Anyone born in India is a citizen. Later, in 1986 and 2003, citizenship by parentage was added. That, he said, was understandable. However, the CAA has now conferred citizenship on the basis of religious identity and this goes against what our constitution-makers stood for.

At one point in the interview Justice Shah said, “The Citizenship Act must be stopped at all costs.”

Speaking about the law of sedition, Justice Shah said that since 1962 in the Kedar Nath Singh case, the Supreme Court has read down Section 124A (which is the sedition law) and it now only applies if there is actual incitement to violence. He says this was reiterated by the court in the 1995 Balwant Singh case and, more explicitly, in 2016. Therefore, there could be no doubt whatsoever that sedition only applies where there’s incitement to violence. He added that governments, at the Centre and the states, and many police forces were misusing and abusing the sedition law.

Asked specifically about Yogi Adityanath’s statement that people who call for ‘azadi’ but do so peacefully and non-violently will be charged with sedition, Justice Shah said that the Yogi “has made up his own law of sedition”. He said peaceful non-violent calls for ‘azadi’ are not sedition.

Watch | ‘India’s Constitution Has Moulded People, That’s Why They Are Challenging Modi’

Asked whether Sharjeel Imam’s call to peacefully block roads connecting Assam to the rest of the country amounted to sedition and whether the police were right or wrong to so charge him, Justice Shah said that on the basis of what he had read in the papers this was not sedition. He said Imam’s call was to peacefully block roads without violence. Secondly, he said ‘raasta roko’ is a well-established Indian protest tradition.

Questioned closely about Thursday’s (30/1) incident at Jamia, when a man called Rambhakt Gopal shot and injured a student whilst shouting ‘ye lo azadi’, Justice Shah said this was “prime facie proof” that Anurag Thakur’s slogan-shouting two days earlier at an election really had incited violence. He said he was “deeply disappointed” that the Election Commission had not responded with tougher action. He said it was “a reluctant body”.

In fact, Justice Shah said that not only were there grounds for believing Anurag Thakur had incited violence but, equally importantly, speeches by Amit Shah (asking people to press the vote button so hard a current is sent to Shaheen Bagh) and Ravi Shankar Prasad (referring to Shaheen Bagh as the ‘tukde tukde gang’) were also responsible for creating division and inciting people to behave violently.

Most importantly, Justice Shah said there was a good case for saying that the sedition law applied to Anurag Thakur. He said the slogans that he repeatedly encouraged at a public rally were clearly an incitement to violence. If the sedition law has to be used this is a case where it is possibly applicable.

Finally, Justice Shah spoke at length about the Supreme Court. He said he was “deeply disappointed” by the way the Supreme Court was prioritising cases in front of them. He said habeas corpus and other fundamental civil rights cases were being pushed back. Consequently, he said “the Supreme Court has abdicated its duty to defend civil rights”. He said the Court is “behaving like an executive court that defends the government and not like a rights court”. He said the Court should be “the sentinel on the qui vive” but it was not performing that duty.

Justice Shah said he could not understand why the Supreme Court, “which is considered the most powerful Court in the world” because it even appoints itself, was unable or unwilling to stand up on issues to do with the basic structure of the constitution or the human rights of the Indian people. He said he was “deeply disappointed” by its functioning. He said he had frequently heard the view that the Court is behaving with the same pusillanimity it showed during the Indira Gandhi’s Emergency of 1975-77.

Commenting on Chief Justice Bobde’s remark that the Supreme Court will only take up CAA cases after the protests stop, Justice Shah said that this made no sense because “good conduct is not a pre-requisite” to get the attention of the court. He agreed that the opposite was true – not that protests need to stop for the court to take up cases but that once the court takes up cases the protests are likely to cease.

Asked what this means for our democracy and the future so far as it can be seen, Justice Shah said that he hoped the court would assert itself but if it did not the future was “dim, dark, dismal and bleak”.

Please see the full interview for a better understanding of what he said and its impact. Here is a link to the full interview:

Watch | Economic Survey: Chasing Wealth Creation, Defending Data

A year after the release of the first Economic Survey that predicted 7% GDP growth for the country, India has stumbled on its journey to becoming a $5 trillion economy.

In July 2019, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian released his first Economic Survey, a document that predicted 7% GDP growth for the country in FY’20 and called for ‘blue-sky’ thinking.

The idea was that if the government and the country’s citizens adopted an uninhibited approach to problem-solving, everyone could achieve their goals.

A year later, and India has stumbled on its journey to becoming a $5 trillion economy. GDP growth did not turn out at 7% as Subramanian’s team had predicted. It instead is set to clock in at a much lower 5%, on the back of falling consumption and muted private investment.

Economic Survey 2020 acknowledges this, with Subramanian noting in a press conference on Friday afternoon that the slump has bottomed out. More importantly though, the document and believes the slump has bottomed out but places India’s slowdown in two contexts.

The document situates the events of last year within the global economy’s slowdown – “world output growth estimated to grow at its slowest pace of 2.9% since the global financial crisis” – and in the framework of India’s financial sector “acting as a drag on the real sector”.

Fiscal Deficit Hits 132% of Estimate till December on Slow Revenue Collection

The deficit was 112.4% of 2018-19 Budget Estimate (BE) in the corresponding period last year.

New Delhi: The Narendra Modi government’s fiscal deficit touched 132.4%  of the full-year target at December-end mainly due to slower pace of revenue collections, official data showed on Friday.

In actual terms, the fiscal deficit or gap between expenditure and revenue was Rs 9,31,725 crore, the data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) showed.

The government aims to restrict the gap at 3.3% of the GDP or Rs 7,03,760 crore in the year ending March 2020.

The deficit was 112.4% of 2018-19 Budget Estimate (BE) in the corresponding period last year.

According to the CGA, the government’s revenue receipts were Rs 11.46 lakh crore or 58.4% of the 2019-20 BE. In the same period last fiscal, the collections were 62.8% of the BE.

The data further revealed that total expenditure was 75.7% of BE or Rs 21.09 lakh crore. During the corresponding period in 2018-19, the expenditure was 75% of the BE.

Of the total spending, the capital expenditure was 75.6% of the BE, higher than 70.6% of the estimates during the same period in 2018-19.

Also read: India’s GDP Growth For FY’19 Revised Downwards to 6.1%

The Economic Survey on Friday made a case for relaxing the fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP in view of the need to arrest the declining growth, estimated to touch an 11-year low of 5% in the current fiscal.

The Medium Term Fiscal Policy (MTFP) Statement presented with the Budget 2019-20, pegged the fiscal deficit target for 2019-20 at 3.3% of GDP, which was further expected to follow a gradual path of reduction and attain the targeted level of 3% of GDP in 2020-21, and continue at the same level in 2021-22.

In September 2019, the government decided to lower tax rate for corporates, taking an estimated hit of Rs 1.45 lakh crore on its revenue mobilisation.

Tax sops were intended to boost investment cycle in the face of slowing GDP growth, which dipped to a six-year low of 5% in the first quarter ended June.

It is widely expected that finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman will announce slew of measures to revive the slowing economic growth. The GDP growth is estimated to slow to an 11-year low of 5% during the current financial year ending March 2020.

The Economic Survey expects the growth to pick up during the next year. It has projected the GDP growth rate to be in the range of 6-6.5% in 2020-21.

What a Biography of Hitler Tells Us About the Supporters of Authoritarian Leaders

The leader cannot order everything from above; so those below have the duty to “work towards” what their leader has signalled he wants.

The image of a gunman brandishing his pistol in full view of Delhi Police and shooting a student protestor at Jamia is profoundly unsettling. The picture of cops looking on idly while the young man went about his threats and shooting is an arresting image that signals the emergence of a new idea of the state in India.

The monopoly of violence evidently no longer rests exclusively with the state; it is now shared with right-wing vigilantes and mobs which enjoy the patronage of the ruling establishment – and that is a terrifying prospect for India. There are reports that the shooter is a member of the Bajrang Dal.

Also read: Editorial: Jamia, Hindutva Radicalisation and the Currency of Bigotry

The reasons for police inaction are not hard to discern. The BJP leadership, starting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, continually indulge in anti-Muslim rhetoric. Modi brazenly dog-whistled recently by saying that anti-CAA protestors could be recognised by their clothes, Shah calls Bangladeshi immigrants “termites”, a BJP’s twitter handle puts out pictures of Arvind Kejriwal with a skull cap alongside images of burning buses, Muslim activists and doctors are harassed and arrested – no one, police included, is in any doubt about who the BJP government will target and protect.

Hitler: A Biography
Ian Kershaw

Given the frenzied nature of daily news, it is likely that the shooter will be explained away as a misguided young man but his act is a manifestation of how individuals absorb extremist messages by political leaders and head on the road to violence.

An account of this dynamic is provided in historian Ian Kershaw’s magisterial biography of Hitler – which explains how loyalists and ordinary citizens respond to authoritarian leaders, how they take cues from their rhetoric and act out their aggression in unanticipated ways.

This is arguably relevant to understand online trolling, vigilante violence, the attacks on journalists and civil society activists, and proactive policies by bureaucrats and ministerial minions.

Kershaw introduces the notion of “working towards the Fuhrer”, which is about officials and ordinary people carrying out the wishes of the leader in their own way.  The historian refers to a 1934 speech by Werner Willikens, an official in the Prussian Agriculture Ministry:

“Everyone with opportunity to observe it knows that the Fuhrer can only with great difficulty order from above everything that he intends to carry out sooner or later. On the contrary, until now everyone has best worked in his place in the new Germany if, so to speak, he works towards the Fuhrer.” 

Willikens continued:

Very often, and in many places, it has been the case that individuals…have waited for commands and orders. Unfortunately, that will probably also be in future. Rather, however, it is the duty of every single person to attempt, in the spirit of the Fuhrer, to work towards him…

Kershaw says that this tendency held the key to how the Third Reich operated during 1934-38, the years of “cumulative radicalisation” when the “Fuhrer state” took shape. 

According to him, “Hitler’s personalised form of rule invited radical initiatives from below and offered such initiatives backing, so long as they were in line with his broadly defined goals.”

“This promoted ferocious competition at all levels of the regime, among competing agencies, and among individuals within those agencies.”

“In the Darwinist jungle of the Third Reich, the way to power and advancement was through anticipating the ‘Fuhrer will’, and, without waiting for directives, taking initiatives to promote what were presumed to be Hitler’s aims and wishes.” 

Nazi party functionaries understood what “working towards the Fuhrer” was in policy terms and ordinary citizens also aided the radicalisation of society through denouncing neighbours to the Gestapo, casting political slurs, exploiting anti-Jewish laws to turf out business competitors and via “daily forms of minor cooperation with the regime at the cost of others”.  Kershaw writes that the Nazi system “could function without Hitler having to shout out streams of diktats. People second-guessed or anticipated what he wanted.” 

Something similar is playing out in India. The Modi government has made clear what its objectives are, which is to indulge in Muslim and secular bashing in order to constitute India as a Hindu majority state – and to exercise a measure of political and discursive control in pursuit of that objective. Within that frame every supporter has a role: a teenager with a gun, trolls on Twitter driven to exhaust and silence liberals, news anchors polarising opinion on a daily basis, Union ministers joining in slogans to shoot protestors, a civil aviation minister zealously urging airlines to ban a comedian from flying. All these amount to “working towards” the wishes of the leader.

Also read: With Jamia Shooter’s Illegal Pistol, Psychological Warfare on Protesters Reaches New Height

The fact that Modi follows bigoted trolls on Twitter adds a strong performative logic and a competitive dimension within the right-wing as Kershaw indicates. If the PM is watching everyone, then everyone is motivated to create spectacles.

There are at least three parallel processes undercutting democracy and the rule of law in this country. First, is that there is an organised dimension to hate speech and violence. The BJP IT cell don’t act as they do, in peddling fake news, without an express mandate; ABVP activists don’t just end up in Jawaharlal Nehru University with lathis without orders from above. Besides this, there is a radical weakening of state institutions, as evinced by Delhi Police acquiescence with the gunman’s action. And following on from that, there’s a third dimension – the nurturing of violent young men through constant indoctrination and propaganda via social media.

This will not end well. This sanctioned vigilantism is bound to find more and varied targets, given the hate freely expressed on social media. And there is no indication that the Modi government wants to stop this process.

Sushil Aaron is a political commentator. Twitter: @SushilAaron.

Watch | Asha Aur Nirasha: What Happened on December 16, 2017?

In 2017, the ABVP disrupted the annual event Nirbhaya’s parents host to remember their lost child, and to try and bring people together to talk about how similar crimes can be prevented.

On December 16 every year, Nirbhaya’s parents hold an event to remember their lost child, and to try and bring people together to talk about how such crimes can be prevented.

In 2017, the student wing of the BJP – ABVP – who have used this issue for pushing their brand of politics, disrupted this event. Their violent behaviour is in line with the many occasions where they have displayed similar behaviour..

India’s GDP Growth For FY’19 Revised Downwards to 6.1%

Under the first revision released in January 2019, real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for 2017-18 was pegged at Rs 131.80 trillion, showing a growth of 7.2%.

New Delhi: The Narendra Modi government on Friday revised downwards the economic growth rate for 2018-19 to 6.1% from 6.8% estimated earlier, mainly due to deceleration in mining, manufacturing and farm sectors.

“Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2018-19 and 2017-18 stand at Rs 139.81 trillion and Rs 131.75 trillion, respectively, showing growth of 6.1% during 2018-19 and 7.0% during 2017-18,” the National Statistical Office said in revised national account data released on Friday.

Under the first revision released in January 2019, real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for 2017-18 was pegged at Rs 131.80 trillion, showing a growth of 7.2%.

“The growth in real GVA (gross value added) during 2018-19 has been lower than that in 2017-18 mainly due to relatively lower growth in ‘Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Financial Services, ‘Public Administration and Defence’ and ‘Other Services’,” it added.

Also read: ‘Thalinomics’ to Defence of GDP Math: Economic Survey 2020 Finds Bright Spots in the Gloom

During 2018-19, at constant prices, the growth rates of primary (comprising agriculture, forestry, fishing and mining & quarrying), secondary (comprising manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services, and construction) and tertiary (services) sectors have been estimated at 1.0%, 6.0% and 7.7%, as against 5.8%, 6.5% and 6.9%, respectively, in the previous year.

The Nominal Net National Income (NNI) at current prices for 2018-19 stands at Rs 167.89 trillion as against Rs 151.50 trillion in 2017-18, showing growth of 10.8% during 2018-19 as against 11.2% in the previous year.

The per capita income, that is per capita net national income at current prices, is estimated as Rs 1,15,293 and Rs 1,26,521 respectively for the years 2017-18 and 2018-19.

Per capita Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices for the years 2017-18 and 2018-19 is estimated at Rs 76,794 and Rs 84,808 respectively.

‘No Public Interest Involved’: J&K HC Dismisses PIL on Rizwan Pandit’s Custodial Death

Pandit, who was taken into police custody in March last year, died due to “profuse bleeding resulting from multiple injuries”.

Srinagar: In March last year, the custodial death of school teacher Rizwan Asad Pandit from the highway town of Awantipora led to days of protests in Kashmir. Under pressure, the government ordered a magisterial probe into the incident, which was described as a “cold-blooded murder” by Rizwan’s family.

While the inquiry is going nowhere, even 10 months after the incident, on Thursday, the J&K high court closed a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) seeking a probe by the Central Bureau of Investigation into the “killing”.

The court ruled that “there is no public interest involved” in the PIL which demanded a transparent and time-bound investigation into the incident.

In its two-page judgment, the division bench of Justice Ali Mohammad Magrey and Justice Diraj Singh Thakur said: “on a bare perusal of the pleadings on the record, coupled with the nature of the relief sought for, we are satisfied there is no public interest involved in the instant Public Interests Litigation, as claimed by the petitioner.”

The Anti-Corruption Council of India Trust had filed the PIL in the court in July 2019, on the grounds that Rizwan’s death was a “cold-blooded murder.”

Apart from the CBI probe, the Trust had also sought that the court squash the magisterial probe and issue directions to the secretary of the Union home ministry, J&K home secretary and J&K director general of police to file an Action Taken Report into the killing.

Also read: Kashmiri School Principal ‘Brutally Tortured, Burnt’ Before Custodial Death

“The subject matter of the petition pertains to the investigation by the CBI into the alleged custodial death of Rizwan Asad. In that context we close this PIL, giving liberty to the petitioner to file appropriate proceedings before an appropriate forum for seeking the relief claimed here in this petition,” reads the judgment.

The petition

Describing Rizwan’s death as “cold-blooded murder in the police custody at Srinagar,” the Trust had termed it as a matter of great concern and gross violation of fundamental rights guaranteed under Articles 21 and 22 of the constitution.

“It creates suspicion on the acts of police officials, as after three days of the death (of Rizwan) an FIR was lodged against him for an attempt to escape from the police vehicle on way to a location in Pulwama for searches,” the PIL said.

Questioning the police’s role, the petition said it was “surprising and shocking” that the FIR was not lodged at any of the three main police stations in Pulwama district – Awantipora, Pampore, and Tral – but instead at the Khrew police station.

“The police said that Rizwan was picked up in a militancy-related case registered at Pantha Chowk, but it is unable to convince how the arrest was made two years after the attack in which both the accused militants were killed,” said the PIL.

It contested police claims about timing of the death, saying the police had announced Rizwan’s custodial death on the morning of March 19, but, as per the post mortem report, he had died at least 12 hours before the examination.

The petition had argued for transparent and time-bound investigation by the CBI, saying the fate of “rampant customary magisterial enquires (in Kashmir) is known which have not at all proved helpful for crime detection, especially custodial violence.”

“It is a general notion in the public nowadays that the people do not die in police custody but are killed in police custody,” the Trust said, questioning why the probe was first ordered in Srinagar and then shifted to Pulwama.

“The custodial death occurred in Srinagar which is itself a prima facie and conspiracy on the part of state administration and police officials,” said the petition by the Front, a body of lawyers from Supreme Court and high courts, as per information on its website.

Also Read: In Photos: After Young Principal’s Custodial Death, Grief and Anger in Kashmir

The Trust had also sought a compensation of Rs 50 lakh for the victim’s family, saying the amount shall be recovered from the “erring officials under whose custody Rizwan was killed.”

The ‘cold-blooded murder’

Thirty-year-old Rizwan was detained by the police for questioning in a “militancy-related case” late on March 17, 2019, during a raid at his Awantipora residence.

On the morning of March 19, police issued a statement saying that “in pursuance of a militancy case investigation, one suspect Rizwan Pandit of Awantipora was in police custody. The said person died in police custody.”

It, however, didn’t mention the cause of death or provide any further details.

A post-graduate in Chemistry, Rizwan was working as a Principal at local private school and also ran a tuition centre in the town. He taught at the government polytechnic college in Awantipora in 2018.

Rizwan had completed MSc in chemistry from Dehradun and was planning to apply for a PhD at Kashmir University days before he was picked up by the police.

The preliminary post-mortem findings had suggested that “profuse bleeding resulting from multiple injuries” could have caused Rizwan’s death.

“Extravasation of blood simulating antemortem bruising could have become the cause of his death. He (Rizwan) had deep wounds on thighs, hips, and abdomen. In such a case there is also a possibility that severe internal bleeding blocks the vessels resulting in kidney failure which results in death,” an official had told The Wire last year. “He also had a hematoma (a solid swelling of clotted blood within the tissues) in his left arm and eye”.

Rizwan’s brother Mubashir Hussain had said that his brother had “multiple horizontal cuts” on both thighs. “The thighs had turned black as if they had been burnt…there were cut on the thighs. He had a swollen and bruised abdomen. Also, his right leg had swollen heavily and it had turned dark red.”

Also read: It Was Jahalat That Killed Both Rizwan Pandit and Aatif Mir

The family had also contested the “escape story”, accusing the police of trying to hush-up the “murder”.

‘Magisterial probe an eyewash’

Rizwan’s family said the Trust had independently petitioned the court to seek the CBI probe. “They didn’t approach us,” said Mubashir. “But we aren’t hopeful of getting justice in the killing of my brother. We know nothing will come out of these probes.”

He termed the ongoing magisterial probe as “mere eyewash”. “It was ordered by the government to buy time. All our family members gave their statements before the inquiry officer last year. But has anything been achieved now? No. there is no outcome of the probe even after passing of more than 10 months,” said Mubashir.

An official said the Assistant Commissioner Revenue, Awantipora, who was tasked to conduct the inquiry, was transferred some months ago.

“Though a new officer has replaced him, there is no progress in the probe,” an official said.

‘Thalinomics’ to Defence of GDP Math: Economic Survey 2020 Finds Bright Spots in the Gloom

The survey acknowledges the growth slump but aims to situate it within the global economic slowdown.

New Delhi: In July 2019, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian released his first Economic Survey, a document that predicted 7% GDP growth for the country in FY’20 and called for ‘blue-sky’ thinking.

The idea was that if the government and the country’s citizens adopted an uninhibited approach to problem-solving, everyone could achieve their goals.

A year later, and India has stumbled on its journey to becoming a $5 trillion economy. GDP growth did not turn out at 7% as Subramanian’s team had predicted. It instead is set to clock in at a much lower 5%, on the back of falling consumption and muted private investment.

Economic Survey 2020 acknowledges this, with Subramanian noting in a press conference on Friday afternoon that the slump has bottomed out. More importantly though, the document and believes the slump has bottomed out but places India’s slowdown in two contexts.

The document situates the events of last year within the global economy’s slowdown – “world output growth estimated to grow at its slowest pace of 2.9% since the global financial crisis” – and in the framework of India’s financial sector “acting as a drag on the real sector”.

Also read: At 6-6.5%, Economic Survey 2020 Projects Cautiously Optimistic Growth Figures for FY’21

To the Survey’s credit, it dedicates a whole chapter to India’s shadow banking crisis, which happened on the Narendra Modi government’s watch, and creates a health index for the retail non-banking financial company (NBFC) sector. The methodology constructs an individual score for each NBFC.

“Overall, it was found that the health score for the HFC [housing finance company] sector exhibited a declining trend post 2014. By the end of 2018-19, the health of the overall sector had worsened considerably. The health score of the Retail NBFC sector was consistently below par for the period 2014 till 2019. Further, the large retail-NBFCs had higher health scores but among the medium and small retail-NBFCs, the medium size retail-NBFCs had a lower health score for the entire period from March 2014 till March 2019,” the Survey notes.

Credit: Economic Survey 2020.

In a chapter on fiscal developments, the Survey concludes that the “urgent priority” of the Centre must be to “revive growth” and that as a result, it may consider relaxing the fiscal deficit targets; an assumption that has been speculated over the last few months.

Modi government rule

There are a number of chapters in the first volume though that look to put the Centre’s achievements over the last five years in context and explain how some recent problems affecting the economy really aren’t big issues or are related to legacy hotspots left behind by the UPA-governments.

For instance, one full chapter goes into how the Modi government strongly believes in pro-business and not pro-crony policies. It quotes an equity index of politically-connected firms and how they outperformed the market from 2007 to 2010, but later underperformed after 2011, reflecting the “inefficiency and value destruction inherent in such firms”

“Pro-crony policies as reflected in discretionary allocation of natural resources till 2011 led to rent-seeking by beneficiaries while competitive allocation of the same resources post 2014 have put an end to such rent extraction. Similarly crony lending that led to wilful default, wherein promoters have collectively siphoned off wealth from banks, led to losses that dwarf subsidies directed towards rural development,” the Survey notes.

Also read: Goli Maro Economy Ko, I’m Going Abroad

It also comes up with novel ways of framing two governance agendas that received sharp criticism in the last year – ‘Start-Up India’ and the issue of high consumer inflation (especially in second half of 2019 calendar year).

While the finance ministry had to devote some time dealing with the fall-out of the dreaded ‘angel tax’ last year – a controversy that drew criticism from even ardent supporters of this government, such as former Infosys CFO TV Mohandas Pai – the Economic Survey 2020 notes that the Centre’s focus on entrepreneurship has boosted the amount of new firms that are created every year.

In Chapter 2, the Survey claims that while the number of new firms in India’s formal sector grew at a CAGR of 3.8% from 2006 to 2014, the growth rate for the next four years (until 2018) has been 12.2%.

“As a result, from about 70,000 new firms created in 2014, the number has grown by about 80% to about 1,24,000 new firms in 2018…Entrepreneurship at the bottom of the administrative pyramid – a district – has a significant impact on wealth creation at the grassroot level. This impact of entrepreneurial activity on GDDP is maximal for the manufacturing and services sectors… birth of new firms is very heterogeneous across Indian districts and across sectors,” the chapter points out.

Credit: Economic Survey 2020.

On the issue of consumer inflation, which hit a nearly-five-year high of 7.35% in December 2019 on the back of soaring food prices, the Survey floats an idea it calls ‘thali-nomics’ or examining how the cost of a thali has changed in the last five years. Specifically, Subramanian and his team show that the absolute prices of a vegetarian ‘thali’ has decreased significantly since 2015-16, even though the price has increased somewhat in 2019 (due to higher consumer inflation).

“… an average household of five individuals that eats two vegetarian Thalis a day gained around Rs 10,887 on average per year while a non-vegetarian household gained Rs 11,787, on average, per year. Using the annual earnings of an average industrial worker, it is found that affordability of vegetarian Thalis improved 29% from 2006-07 to 2019-20 while that for non-vegetarian Thalis improved by 18%.”

Credit: Economic Survey 2020

The Economic Survey links this, naturally, to lower inflation of each component of a thali from 2013-14 onwards, but also crucially juxtaposes it against the agricultural reforms that the Narendra Modi government introduced from 2015-16 onwards.

“Many reform measures were introduced during the period of analysis to enhance the productivity of the agricultural sector as well as efficiency and effectiveness of agricultural markets for better and more transparent price discoveryThis is reflected in a slowdown in the prices of Thalis at the All-India level…,” the document notes.

Who moved my GDP?

Lastly, Subramanian and his team set out to counter concerns raised by section of India’s statistical community, the most prominent of which include his predecessor Arvind Subramanian, that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) figures are unreliable and likely overstated.

In two working research papers released last year, Arvind Subramanian alleged that India’s real GDP growth was overestimated by 2.5 percentage points in the post-2011 period. These claims came at a difficult time for the government, which was already struggling with the perception that it had politically influenced the country’s statistical data.

In the Economic Survey 2020, current CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian provocatively titles Chapter 10 as ‘Is India’s GDP Growth Overestimated? No!’, the aim of which is pointedly described as “to estimate the inaccuracy if any in the GDP growth rate using the difference-indifference methodology as implemented in Subramanaian (2019) and Purnanandam (2019)”.

The Survey, which examines the different issues that may have affected the way India calculates GDP, concludes ultimately that Arvind Subramanian’s concerns are unfounded.

Its many conclusions include:

1) Using a cross-country, generalised difference-in-difference model with fixed effects, the analysis demonstrate the lack of any concrete evidence in favour of a misestimated Indian GDP

2)… No evidence of misestimation of India’s GDP growth is found.

3) Indeed, the models that incorrectly overestimate GDP growth by over 2.77% for India post-2011 also mis-estimate GDP growth over the same time period for 51 other countries by any where between +4% to -4.6%, including UK by +1.6%, Germany by +1.0%, Singapore by -2.3%, South Africa by -1.2% and Belgium by -1.3%.

However, when the models are estimated correctly by accounting for all unobserved differences among countries as well as the differential trends in GDP growth across countries, GDP growth for most of these 52 countries is neither over- or under-estimated. In sum, concerns of overestimation of India’s GDP are unfounded.

Star Comedians Hold Charity Show in Solidarity With Protests

After a three-minute standing ovation for comedian Kunal Kamra, a dream-team of stand-up comedians – organised by Kaneez Surka – took the stage in Mumbai.

New Delhi: A line-up of star Indian comedians performed at a charity show in Mumbai on Thursday to express their solidarity with nationwide protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and National Register of Citizens.

The proceeds of the event will go to the Internet Freedom Foundation (IFF), which works on digital rights and liberty.

“Amshula Prakash (a lawyer) and I decided to put this show up and Abhishek Oswal from Only Much Louder helped us execute the logistics,” comedian Kaneez Surka, one of the organisers, told The Wire. “We wanted to show our solidarity as a community against the injustices prevailing in the country right now. We thought the best way to do that was to do what we do best – comedy – and collect funds that can help people who are out there fighting for the cause.”

The line up included Surka, Kanan Gill, Urooj Ashfaq, Kunal Kamra, Tanmay Bhat, Prashasti Singh and Biswa Kalyan Rath, among others, and the show was hosted by Rohan Joshi, formerly of AIB. The show was sold out a day before the event, Mumbai Mirror reported. Joshi told the newspaper that for him, the event was about “standing up for our values”, above and beyond commercial interests.

Also read: At Shaheen Bagh, Muslim Women Take Their Place as Heroes of the Movement

The performances at Bal Gandharva Rang Mandir in Bandra weren’t focused on current events, the humour was wide-ranging.

“I did a joke about how I feel bad for anyone who’s yelling ‘Desh ke gaddaron ko, goli maro salon ko’, because they’re trying to tell us that they’re suicidal,” Tanmay Bhat told The Wire. “It’s a call for help, guys, we must feel bad for them.”

The event took place at a time when one of the performers – Kunal Kamra – has been in the headlines. Kamra was banned from flying on multiple airlines after the posted a video of himself confronting and “heckling” Republic TV anchor Arnab Goswami onboard a flight to Lucknow. None other than civil aviation minister Hardeep Singh Puri swooped in to ask airlines to punish the comedian, though it is unclear under which rules. The pilot of the plane has said that the action against Kamra is unwarranted.

“The comedy community (in India) is small and even vulnerable, but we have our moral compass, and we would love to live by it,” comedian Varun Grover – whose poem ‘Hum Kaagaz Nahi Dikhaenge’ has become one of the protest anthems – told Mumbai Mirror.

“The vindictiveness of the government is in full and obscene display here and Kamra is still responding with a sense of humour; sharing memes and thanking airlines.” Grover said to the newspaper. “And that I think is heartening — the whole world gets to see that the peace-loving, full of yoga-calmness India that they know about, is not represented by its establishment, but by its artists.”

Delhi Court Stays Execution of Four Nirbhaya Case Convicts Until Further Orders

The convicts’ lawyer had argued that since one convict’s plea is pending, the others cannot be hanged.

New Delhi: A Delhi court on Friday has stayed the execution of four death row convicts – Vinay Sharma, Mukesh Kumar, Pawan Gupta and Akshay Thakur – in the Nirbhaya gangrape-murder case till further orders. They were earlier scheduled to be executed on Saturday (February 1).

Earlier in the day, Additional Sessions Judge Dharmender Rana reserved the order after hearing the arguments of the Tihar jail authorities and the convicts’ lawyer.

Saying only one convict’s plea is pending and the others can be hanged, Tihar Jail authorities had challenged the application of three condemned prisoners in the case seeking a stay on their execution.

The lawyer for Vinay Sharma, Pawan Gupta and Akshay Thakur disagreed with the jail authorities and said rules dictate that when one convict’s plea is pending, the others cannot be hanged.

Advocate A.P. Singh, representing the convicts, urged the court to adjourn the executions sine die (with no appointed date for resumption). Vinay’s mercy plea before the president is pending.

Also read: Seven Reasons Why We Shouldn’t Demand the Death Penalty for Rape

The fourth person sentenced to death in the case is Mukesh Kumar, whose mercy plea was dismissed by President Ram Nath Kovind on January 17. The appeal against the rejection was thrown out by the Supreme Court on Wednesday.

The trial court on January 17 issued black warrants for the second time for the execution of all the four convicts in the case in Tihar jail at 6 am on February first. Earlier, on January 7, the court had fixed January 22 as the hanging date.

The curative petitions of Vinay and Akshay have been rejected by the apex court. Pawan is the only one who has not yet filed a curative plea.

Convicts have the option of moving a mercy petition before the president only after the apex court dismisses their curative plea.

A 23-year-old physiotherapy intern who came to be known as “Nirbhaya” (the fearless one) was gangraped and assaulted on the night of December 16, 2012, in a moving bus in South Delhi. She died of her injuries a fortnight later in a Singapore hospital.