Month: January 2021

Two Key Numbers to Look Out for in the Upcoming Budget 2021

The most important concern is that of increasing public spending.

There are really only two numbers to look out for in the forthcoming budget: how much did the government claim to have spent in 2020-21, and how much does it intend to spend in 2021-22.

These two numbers will determine whether there is any real hope of sustained macroeconomic recovery in the near future, notwithstanding any claims of green shoots or revival that the finance minister may point to.

As it is, the Indian government’s response to COVID-19 has been, in purely economic terms, one of the worst in the world.  Not only did it impose a national lockdown without notice or consultation, at a time when it was not needed, it then proceeded to “unlock” as cases mounted and infections spread more rapidly, thereby putting more people at risk.

It deprived hundreds of millions of people of their livelihoods at one stroke and then provided next to nothing in terms of compensation or social protection. This is both astounding and inexcusable in a country where around 95% of all workers are informal, and around half of those are self-employed, and where the loss of income beyond even a week can lead to absolute starvation for millions who were already at the margin of subsistence.

The government even hoarded—and increased the volume—of food grain surpluses lying with the Food Corporation of India at a time when absolute hunger among the people increased massively. The extension of some free food grain (only 5 kg per month) to those holding ration cards was discontinued after November 2020, even as food stocks remain at more than double the buffer stock requirement and even cost the FCI money to store. Nothing was done for the more than 100 million deserving people estimated to be outside the ration system for no fault of their own. The denial of basic food items to hundreds of millions of people is more than a human tragedy: it will reflect in maternal, infant and child undernutrition with terrible consequences for the future.

Also read: Hit Hardest by the Pandemic, What Can the Common Man Expect from the Union Budget?

Lack of spending

In macroeconomic terms, the lack of public spending had disastrous effects. In the period from April to November 2020, total central government spending actually declined in real terms (that is, once inflation is taken into account): it increased by only 4.7% compared to the same period in the previous year, while inflation over the period was more than 6%. This amounts to a negative fiscal stance during a downswing, which is so inexplicable and wrong as to be almost impossible to believe.

Migrant workers walk towards a bus station along a highway with their families as they return to their villages, during a 21-day nationwide lockdown to limit the spreading of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Ghaziabad, on the outskirts of New Delhi, March 29, 2020. Photo: Reuters/Adnan Abidi

Not only did the central government refuse to spend more itself; it also refused to let the state governments spend more either. After invoking the centralising National Disaster Management Act to declare a national lockdown without consulting or informing states, the Centre then proceeded to avoid any fiscal or other obligation to deal with the pandemic or the consequences of its own actions. Instead, it left the state governments to deal with the additional health spending and other measures required to deal with the increased economic distress as best they could. As part of the second “stimulus” package in July, states were allowed to borrow more—knowing that they would have to repay later and that their borrowing costs would be much higher than the central government.

The Centre even refused to pay the GST compensation dues owed to the states, instead forcing down a complicated system of back-to-back borrowing to cover part of its own dues, whereby the Centre borrows from the RBI and lends the money to the states, which they will eventually have to return, albeit without interest! Even this ridiculous and unfair arrangement covers less than half of the GST compensation dues for the year.

All this extraordinary curtailment of government spending during the pandemic and economic decline, all this denial of its own financial obligation to the state governments: for what purpose? It results directly from the central government’s absurd fear of increasing the fiscal deficit.

This is absurd because such fiscal compression will only add to the tendencies for economic contraction, in addition to prolonging and intensifying the suffering of the people. And this contraction of economic activity will lead to lower tax revenues as well. So it is hardly surprising that the fiscal deficit has continued to increase beyond projections.

And this is despite the other surprising measure of the government—the continued use of higher taxes on fuel to supplement its incomes during the recession. Petrol and diesel prices in India are now at historic highs, leading to the depressing tendency towards stagflation—rising inflation even while the real economy declines or stagnates, and wage incomes collapse.

Also read: Budget 2021: Nirmala Sitharaman’s ‘Stress Test’ and Macroeconomic Challenges Ahead 

After such crimes, what forgiveness? The only redemption would come from a reversal of these crazy, unjust and counterproductive policies. In other words, from a significant increase in public expenditure, especially in areas with high multiplier effects, such as health, nutrition, social services like education, economic sectors like agriculture and expansion of the employment guarantee in rural areas as well as its introduction in urban areas; as well as more spending in areas that would help to overcome any supply bottlenecks that have emerged because of the breakdown of supply chains resulting from the poorly planned and aggressively implemented lockdowns.

Some of this increase in spending could be immediately financed through solidarity taxes imposed on the extremely wealthy and reforming tax systems to prevent multinational companies from shifting profits out of the country and thus avoiding paying their fair share of taxes in India even at the existing tax rates.

But these are secondary concerns at the moment. The most important concern is that of increasing public spending, which is why, I repeat: there are only two numbers to look for when the Union Budget is presented this year.

Jayati Ghosh is a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

Hit Hardest by the Pandemic, What Can the Common Man Expect from the Union Budget?

While some direct relief may be on the cards, it is unlikely to be huge, considering the government has its own set of macroeconomic challenges, in wake of COVID-19 pandemic.

In India, the Union budget is a televised affair, with specific announcements designed for political optics and how they will be played up on the front pages of newspapers the next morning.

One wonders whether even one of the numerous announcements made on Budget day brings any excitement for the common man – an employee working in the informal sector, a millennial graduate who is looking for a new job, or a retired employee.

Indeed, the excitement is reserved for all analysts who are immersed in number crunching and hastily preparing reports to be delivered to their clients. Businessmen fall somewhere in the middle, with their eyes only on specific announcements.

Also read: Analysis: Making Virus Crisis Budget, India Needs to Spend but Funds May Fall Short

The forthcoming Budget is to be announced after the Indian economy and its citizens have been roiled by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the lingering concerns of the pandemic still prevailing amidst the roll-out of the vaccine.

While obviously important, the common person is not interested in the government’s fiscal deficit numbers, its estimates of the country’s national income, disinvestments, capital expenditure and market borrowings programmes. What matters are purely tax-saving announcements and price pressures via tax hikes.

Let’s simplify things for the common man as to what one can expect from this year’s Budget.

What’s on the cards? 

Firstly, media reports indicate that a COVID cess may be on the cards. A cess is a tax with specific purposes and time duration, and the COVID cess will likely be announced to garner revenues for spending on vaccination. This is likely to pinch the pockets of the consumers as it will be applicable on all purchases.

FILE PHOTO: Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman holds budget papers as she leaves her office to present the federal budget in the parliament in New Delhi, February 1, 2020. Photo: Reuters/Anushree Fadnavis/File photo

Secondly, import duties on some commodities, especially finished commodities, like electronic goods, furniture, and electric vehicles, are likely to be hiked under the broad theme of pushing for local manufacturing. Here again, consumers who are likely to incur such discretionary spending could have to shell out more.

Third and fourth are the most important things which the common man looks out for – tax exemptions and deductions. These are extremely important as individuals have faced the wrath of the pandemic in the form of job losses and pay cuts which has reduced the purchasing power.

At the same time, the revenues of the government have been strained owing to the nation-wide lockdown, which stopped economic activities, and this further act as an obstacle to announce tax relief measures.

In the previous Budget, the finance minister had allowed the individuals to choose between two tax regimes with the newer one offering lower taxes amidst no investment deductions. Although this added to the complexity in an already prevailing labyrinth of the income tax, individuals will expect easier relief measures like – increase in the income tax exemption limit from the current Rs 2.5 lakh to Rs 5 lakh, increase in the standard deduction from the prevailing Rs 50,000 to Rs 75,000 or hike in the popular 80C deduction limit. Nonetheless, any tax relief measures will be in the form of a token rather than with an objective to propel disposable income.

Also read: Budget 2021: Nirmala Sitharaman’s ‘Stress Test’ and Macroeconomic Challenges Ahead

The fifth aspect is the relief measures for the senior citizens, who are already earning meagre returns from their deposits. Barring some tax breaks on the interest income from the Senior Citizen Savings Scheme, it is highly unlikely that any specific tax exemptions will be announced.

Sixth, jobs – a graduating millennial and many unemployed individuals will lookout for a job scheme in urban areas akin to the rural job guarantee scheme of Mahatma Gandhi Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), which witnessed a sharp increase in allocation during the pandemic.

A recent Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) survey highlights the fall in the per capita urban household income was sharper than the rural household and incomes have still not touched the pre-pandemic levels. This is worrisome and therefore expectations will be high on this front.

However, there have been some announcements already made by the government. In November, there was subsidy support in the form of provident fund payments to companies to boost employment and this can be extended from its current deadline of June 2021.

The government will also focus on infrastructure spending, which has positive externalities of job creation, but this is not what the common man will note because of the skilled-unskilled demand-supply mismatch.

Seventh is cash transfer that is unlikely to be announced barring the pre-existing transfers to the farmers, which could see a gradual hike. Lastly, the 130 crore population will also be hopeful of free vaccination against COVID-19 with the burden being shared by both Central and state governments.

Just before any Budget, the hype is understandable and the common man also joins the bandwagon of expectations from various interest groups. Given the prevailing challenges at the individual level, expectations of easing tax burden, transfers, more disposable income, jobs will be sky-high, but the same will have to be moderated by individuals as the government is constrained with its own set of macroeconomic challenges.

Sushant Hede is an associate economist at CARE Ratings Limited. 

UNSC Watch: US Returns to Pre-Trump Palestine Policy, No Consensus on Libya Sanctions Chair’s Report

A weekly analysis on UN Security Council proceedings as India begins its two-year tenure at the body.

New Delhi: The last week of January saw a change in US policy on major international issues – and this time the platform was the 15-member United Nations Security Council.

A week-old Biden administration presented a return to Washington’s traditional approach on the Israeli-Palestinian dispute at the quarterly open debate on the ‘The Situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question’ on January 26.

The virtual meeting was briefed by senior UN officials, the Palestinian foreign minister and Israel ambassador, but all eyes were on the United States.

US envoy-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield is still to be confirmed by the Senate, so acting US ambassador to UN Richard Mills was the messenger to convey the changes.

“Under the new administration, the policy of the United States will be to support a mutually agreed two-state solution, one in which Israel lives in peace and security alongside a viable Palestinian state,” stated Mills.

Ahead of this meeting, there had been two significant development in the region. Palestine President Mahmoud Abbas announced a calendar of elections this year – legislative on May 22, presidential on July 31 and National Council on August 31.

On the Israel side, there was an acceleration in developing around 2,700 settlement houses in West Bank.

There was no specific reference to the election announcement or new settlement housing. But Mills did bring in a critical view of settlements in a sentence urging both Israel and Palestine to bridge the trust deficit by taking specific steps. “In this vein, the United States will urge Israel’s government and the Palestinian Authority to avoid unilateral steps that make a two-state solution more difficult, such as annexation of territory, settlement activity, demolitions, incitement to violence, and providing compensation for individuals imprisoned for acts of terrorism.”

Also read: UNSC Watch: In New York, India’s Balancing Act Between West and Russia Over Belarus

Mills then announced that the US would restore aid to Palestinians and re-open the Palestinian embassy. “President Biden has been clear in his intent to restore US assistance programs that support economic development and humanitarian aid for the Palestinian people and to take steps to re-open diplomatic missions that were closed by the last US administration.”

US had closed down PLO’s diplomatic mission in Washington in 2018 on the grounds that Palestinian leaders had not engaged with Washington’s peace effort and tried to get International Criminal Court (ICC) to begin an investigation of Israel. The Trump administration also closed down its US consulate general in Jerusalem which dealt with Palestinian affairs by merging it with the newly relocated US embassy to Israel in the divided city.

The anticipation of the Biden administration’s approach having a more positive impact was evident from the statements of most of the participants.

Arab League secretary-general Ahmed Aboul Gheit hoped that new US government would correct “unhelpful measures and policies and relaunch the political process”. Palestinian foreign minister Riyad al-Maliki stated that it was time to “repair the damage left by the previous United States administration”.

In his intervention, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gilead Erdan, spent a considerable amount of time arguing that Iran should be one of the main topics to be discussed in a debate on West Asia.

Slamming the Palestinians for refusing Israel’s offers, he asserted that the Palestinian government’s call for a peace conference was a mirage. “Don’t be fooled by this; it is only another distraction. Abbas knows a conference will not bring peace. The only way to achieve real peace is through direct, bilateral negotiations,” he said in his speech.

He also disparaged President Abbas’ announcement of elections, indicating that it was only done to curry favour with the new Biden administration.

India’s permanent representative to UN, T.S. Tirumurti welcomed the announcement of the elections and urged that all steps are taken to “ensure that these elections are held smoothly, fulfilling the democratic aspirations of the Palestinian people”.

Tirumurti also supported Palestine’s proposal to “hold an international peace conference with the participation of all relevant parties to achieve the vision of a sovereign and independent Palestine living side by side in peace and security with Israel”. He also had stated that India’s support for the peace conference was in the context of a comprehensive solution to the conflict by achieving the two-state solution “through direct negotiations between the two parties”.

No consensus 

At the briefing on Libya for council members by the acting special representative and head of United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Stephanie Williams, India – as the new chairman of the 1970 Libya sanctions committee – should have also been briefing the council.

However, India was not able to present a briefing as chair. Sources stated that the chair’s report is usually factual and finalised through consensus between the 15 members. With some of the members taking a polar opposite stance on a few issues, there was no agreement on the chair’s statement..

However, India, in its own statement at the meeting, asserted that the credibility on the sanctions regime in Libya depends on its strict compliance. “Blatant violations of the arms embargo are a serious threat to peace and stability in Libya and need to be condemned. This Council should also look at options to address the issue of management of frozen assets,” said Tirumurti.

He also stated that lasting peace in Libya could only come after there was complete departure of foreign fighters. “We are well past the deadline of 90 days set by the Libyans themselves when they signed the Ceasefire Agreement for departure of all foreign fighters.”

UN secretary general Antonio Guterres had also called for foreign fighters to “leave the Libyans alone” .

US envoy Mills specifically named “Russia, Turkey, and the UAE, to respect Libyan sovereignty and immediately cease all military intervention in Libya”.

Also read: UNSC Watch: Now in Security Council, India Gets a Taste of Polarised Division in an Open Debate

Tirumurti also reminded that India had been one of the original countries to have raised red flags when the western countries pushed through resolutions 1970 and 1973 on Libya in 2011. “We had then conveyed our reservations on the way these two resolutions were rushed in the Council. India had called for a calibrated and gradual approach and stressed on the importance of political efforts to address the situation. Ten years down, enduring peace still remains a dream in Libya and the Libyan people continue to bear the brunt of actions taken by this Council and the international community”.

The other major debates last week were on covid-19, where several countries expressed concern that the gap in vaccination between the rich and developing world could impact international peace and security.

The Security Council also unanimously extended the mandate of the UN peacekeeping force in Cyprus till July 31, 2021. The resolution specifically raises concern about Turkey opening part of seaside resort Varosha on Cyprus’s east coast.

Next week

With the start of a new month, the United Kingdom will take over the presidency of the Security Council. While the programme of work for the month will be decided on Monday, there is expected to be two signature events on climate change to be chaired by UK prime minister Boris Johnson and UK foreign secretary Dominic Raab. However, these are not likely to take place in the first week of February, as the invitations for high-level participation has not yet been circulated to UNSC members.

This is a weekly column that tracks the UNSC during India’s current term as a non-permanent member. Previous columns can be found here.

NIA Opposes Stan Swamy’s Bail; Calls PUCL, Visthapan Virodhi Jan Vikas Andolan ‘Maoist Fronts’

The agency made the claim about the 30-year-old human rights body while arguing against the bail application moved by Father Stan Swamy.

Mumbai: In its latest, the National Investigation Agency handling the ongoing probe in the Elgar Parishad case has called a 30-year-old human rights body, People’s Union for Civil Liberties, a frontal organisation of the banned Communist Party of India (Maoist). The agency made the claim while arguing against the bail application moved by arrested human rights defender Father Stan Swamy. Similar claims were also made against Jharkhand-based Adivasi rights organisation Visthapan Virodhi Jan Vikas Andolan.

Swamy, who was arrested in October last year, is 83 and suffers from acute Parkinson’s disease along with several other age-related ailments. Swamy has sought bail on the grounds that the prosecution has failed to establish his involvement with the ongoing investigation. Swamy is one among 16 academics, lawyers and activists to be arrested in the Elgar Parishad case. The first round of arrests began in June 2018 when the local Pune police were handling the investigation. The NIA took over the case in January last year after the BJP government fell in Maharashtra.

Special public prosecutor Prakash Shetty while contesting Swamy’s bail plea, claimed before the court that he was actually “accomplishing the agenda of Maoists” under the pretence of voicing concerns of the tribal community. Swamy, a well-acclaimed champion of Adivasi rights has spent a large part of his life working in the tribal region of Jharkhand.

Shetty claimed that Swamy was using his social work as a pretext to “accomplish the agenda of CPI(Maoist)”. “The ghastly truth is that in the name of social causes, Father Swamy and the co-accused are actually working to achieve the goals of the CPI (Maoist),” Shetty told the court, as reported in The Hindu.

This is not the first time any human rights organisation has been branded as a Maoist front. In the chargesheet, the NIA has called the Indian Association of People’s Lawyers (IAPL), of which two arrested lawyers, Surendra Gadling and Sudha Bharadwaj, are a part of one of the frontal organisations. Kabir Kala Manch, a Pune- based cultural group too has been claimed to be furthering the Maoist agenda.

None of these organisations have a gazette notification issued by the Central government declaring them a banned organisation as prescribed under the draconian Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA). Experts have claimed that simply terming them as a “front “front” or a “formation” or an “off-shoot” of a banned organisation allows the state machinery to target individuals and organisations and brand them ‘unlawful’ without really having to go through the laborious process of getting them notified as per the law. And the “black hole” in the law, expert say, is retained with the very intention to misuse it.

Also read: How Governments Avoid Due Process by Declaring Groups as ‘Front Organisations’ of Banned Entities

Mihir Desai, designated senior lawyer of the Bombay high court and the convenor of PUCL’s Maharashtra chapter called the NIA’s attempt to tarnish the organisation’s reputation “ridiculous”. “They have made such ridiculous and irresponsible statements in the past too. They have been going behind every human rights organisation and now they are targeting PUCL,” Desai told The Wire.

Desai, recalling the legacy of the organisation, said, “PUCL was a direct outcome of the Emergency. It was founded by socialist leader Jayprakash Narayan. Several lawyers, including the BJP’s Ravi Shankar Prasad and Arun Jaitley, have been associated with PUCL,” he pointed out.

Four years ago, in one of his essays, Swamy had written that Visthapan Virodhi Jan Vikas Andolan is not an NGO but a “broad people’s movement” that came in existence spontaneously during the first decade of Jharkhand as a separate state. He further wrote that the movement has worked towards bringing out cases of state repression, extrajudicial killings and protecting the socio-cultural tradition of Jharkhand.

Law Student Affiliated With ABVP Arrested Over Rape Threats to Journalist Rohini Singh

In a tweet, Udaipur police said that Kapil Viayan admitted that Singh’s reporting on the farmers’ rally had angered him, leading him to send the threatening messages.

Jaipur: The Rajasthan police have arrested a a 26-year-old law student for sending death and rape threats to Rohini Singh, senior journalist and frequent contributor to The Wire.

In a response to Singh’s tweet on the farmers’ tractor rally, Kapil Viayan had sent her a direct message and threatened her. In a tweet about the threats, Singh tagged Udaipur range police and chief minister of Rajasthan Ashok Gehlot and demanded action.

Following this, Gehlot directed the Udaipur IG and SP to take immediate action. Viayan was identified as a resident of Semari village in Udaipur. He was also found to be associated with BJP’s student wing Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP).

Inspector general of police (IGP) Udaipur range, Satyaveer Singh confirmed that Viayan was arrested and put under interrogation on Saturday.

Also read: Delhi Police Arrest Journalist at Singhu Protest Site, Detain and Release Another

“Our team has arrested Kapil Singh, a resident of Semari, who was sending murder and rape threats to journalist Rohini Singh,” the IGP had tweeted.

Viayan admitted to the police that Singh’s reporting on the farmers’ rally had angered him. “During his interrogation, the accused confessed that he had doled out a threat to the journalist in anger against her style of reporting on the ongoing farmers’ agitation at the borders of Delhi,” the Udaipur IGP told the Hindustan Times.

Singh later thanked Gehlot and Udaipur police for the prompt action.

Kashmir: 11 Years After Wamiq Farooq’s Killing, Justice Continues to Evade Teen’s Family

The case against two policemen accused in the killing of 13-year-old Wamiq Farooq in Srinagar in 2010 staggered to a halt with the revocation of Article 370 and the pandemic, but his family has said they will continue their fight.

Wamiq Farooq had just topped his Class 6 examination and was set to resume school in the spring of 2010. Sundays were the only days when the 13-year-old would get some time off his studious routine to play some cricket. On January 31, 2010, after offering noon-time prayers at a mosque and eating lunch with his family, Wamiq tucked a cricket ball into his pocket, waved to his mother through the window and left. He never returned.

His aunt then saw him loitering in the street adjacent to the house at around 4 pm and asked him to come inside the house, but Wamiq told her he was going to Gani Memorial Stadium – roughly three kilometres from his house in Rainawari, Srinagar. He asked a stranger on a bicycle to drop him off near the stadium, Wamiq’s brother Danish Farooq said.

“On Sundays, the stadium is usually occupied. And during the winters, the ground sometimes is wet,” says his brother, Danish. “As the field was wet, he couldn’t play cricket. He then joined some kids playing carom nearby.”

Later that evening, Wamiq was hit on the head by a tear-smoke shell that was allegedly fired at close range by constable Mohamad Akram of the Jammu and Kashmir Police on the orders of ASI Abdul Khaliq. The police later justified their action in the FIR (12/2010), claiming that “in order to disperse the unruly mob, the mild force was used such as tear-smoke shells, as a result, thereof one shell hit a boy who was taken by the locals to the hospital…” However, key eyewitnesses have contested the narrative, “There was no mob or any incident of stone-pelting, even the nearby shops were open, everything was normal.”

Wamiq was one of the first victims of the indiscriminate use of police violence in early 2010. Over the year, a series of killings – especially the death of Tufail Matto, who died when security forces fired a teargas canister on June 11, 2010 – culminated into the 2010 Kashmir uprising.

The case

On August 22, 2013, the chief judicial magistrate of Srinagar issued non-bailable arrest warrants against Abdul Khaliq Sofi and Mohammad Akram after the prima-facie guilt of the accused was established based on a judicial inquiry and police probe. The CJM’s order read:

“From the apparent perusal of evidence collected by the Judicial Magistrate in an inquiry under section 202 of CrPC and the evidence collected by the SIT, such circumstances are spelt out which prima-facie indicate to availability of evidence which points out the culpability of ASI Abdul Khaliq Sofi and SPO Muhammad Akram.”

However, no arrests were made.

A commission led by Justice M.L. Koul, which was assigned to investigate human rights violations that took place during the 2010 unrest, finally submitted a report in 2014 regarding the 2010 killings, wherein it fiercely criticised the use of unjustified force over civilians that resulted in more than 120 deaths.

Moreover, the commission’s report, holding Abdul Khaliq and Muhammad Akram responsible for misusing their power, concludes that Wamiq’s killing was an example of police brutality. The 320-page report further mentioned that the defences put forth by the accused party were dubious and weak.

“These commissions are nothing but an attempt to camouflage and deviate the attention of the people – no recommendations were implemented. The commission had even sought monetary relief for the family of the victim, and as of yet, they have not been remunerated even by a single penny. These are just diversionary tactics employed by the state,” advocate Ajaz Ahmad, who is representing Wamiq Farooq’s family, told The Wire.

The then CJM Srinagar had issued an order of magisterial probe under which Masarat Shaheen (currently registrar judicial at the J&K high court) recorded the statement of eight eyewitnesses. “All of the testimonies confirmed in unison that there was no mob present at the time and there was no incident of stone pelting, and that the constable Akram had fired shells on the order of ASI Khaliq,” Ahmad told The Wire.

Later, the CJM, on considering the reports of the probe, suggested A.G. Mir, the then IGP Kashmir, to form a Special Investigation Team (SIT) to look into the matter. However, the state filed a revision petition against the orders of CJM, which was dismissed by the principal district judge. The police filed a few more petitions and all of them were dismissed, as a result of which IGP “was finally forced to constitute an SIT under the Superintendent of Police Ajaz Khan”. The report which was filed claimed that Wamiq had “fallen from a wall, while jumping off, causing him major head injuries.”

The case also went to the Supreme Court, and on April 7, 2015, it asked the trial court Srinagar to proceed with a trial in the case “uninfluenced” by findings of the SIT and observations of the J&K high court.

Recalling the unfortunate day she lost her son, Wamiq Farooq’s mother Firdausa told The Wire, “The doctors were threatened by the police and they gave us a false report, wherein the cause of death was mentioned as an injury caused in a motorbike incident.”

“I shouted at the doctors, and begged them to give us the true reports if there was any conscience left in their hearts,” she added. “They gave me the second report after hours of pleading.”

Photo: Special arrangement

The second report mentioned that Wamiq had suffered an injury “in the posterior part of his skull, resulting from an accelerated projectile”. It further claimed that “brain matter was flooding out with the blood” and that the victim had been brought dead.

Wamiq’s family saw a glimmer of hope after five long years when on November 20, 2015, forest magistrate Srinagar B.A. Munshi issued fresh non-bailable arrest warrants against the two policemen – Sofi and Akram. The court further directed the senior superintendent of police (Srinagar) to execute the warrants and produce the accused before the court on December 1, 2015.

Multiple obstacles

On December 1, 2015, the accused duo surrendered before the court. The policemen, after being found guilty of culpable homicide, were remanded to judicial custody and sent to the Central Jail. “I believe that the accused are involved in a heinous offence, therefore they cannot be released on bail at this stage,” Munshi said in his order.

In February 2018, both Sofi and Akram were released on bail. Later, the accused party filed two transfer applications in order to transfer the case from Srinagar to the Jammu court.

“The accused have been filing these petitions to avoid a fair trial, and avoid confronting the court,” says Ajaz.

“I am surprised that despite all the evidence and the accounts of eyewitnesses, there has not even been a single proceeding in the court till date and the culprits are roaming free. It has been a decade of this excruciating struggle, but we will not give up” said Farooq Ahmad Wani, Wamiq’s father, who is a street hawker and makes his living selling school bags.

One of the transfer applications was filed on the grounds that the “complainant had threatened the accused, and it is, therefore, unsafe for the accused to stay in Srinagar” and to appear in the court here. In the second transfer application, the accused have alleged that the judges in Srinagar “despite enjoying the benefits of the state, are not dispensing justice to the people [accused] who have been serving the national interest”.

Also read: Parents of Victims of 2010 Kashmir Uprising Protest Amarnath Yatra Killings

Both the applications have been challenged by advocate Ajaz Khan and the final argument regarding the criminal transfer application was to be heard by the chief justice of the J&K HC, early in the summer of 2019.

However, in August 2019, the region was stripped of its autonomy and the Centre imposed an unprecedented clampdown in the Valley – all modes of communication were snapped and mass detentions of civilians and the mainstream politicians were carried out. The lockdown brought the judicial process to a halt, hence keeping Wamiq’s family in a perpetual wait for justice.

Later, the COVID-19 pandemic paved the way for more lockdown, further clogging the wheels of justice. In light of this, courtrooms and trials have been shifted online. However, though it has been more than 500 days since internet services were initially snapped in the Valley, the government has yet to restore the internet fully – making it difficult to even send an email, let alone attend the online courtroom sessions.

“It takes hours to argue a case. How can we expect a four-hour-long video conference with the judge when the internet is so sluggish that you can’t even log into your email?” complains Ajaz Ahmed. “Moreover, it is close to impossible to argue the case efficaciously and in-depth via video conference.”

As a result, on his 11th death anniversary, justice still evades Wamiq Farooq and his family.

In remembrance of Wamiq Farooq, congregational prayers were held on his 11th death anniversary on January 31 at Martyrs’ Graveyard, Eidgah, in Srinagar.

Peerzada Sheikh Muzamil is an assistant editor at the Mountain Ink Magazine and a freelance journalist who tweets at @Peerzadamuzamil.

This Year’s Budget Is Critical to Ensure a Comprehensive Nutrition Response

One of the most disturbing effects of the pandemic has been on the nutritional needs of the disadvantaged. The Budget needs to prioritise addressing this issue.

The pandemic led disruptions of nutrition services have exacerbated India’s existing burden of undernutrition. Children did not get the mid-day meals and supplementary nutrition under the anganwadi services scheme they were registered under. Critical health services like immunisation, iron-folic acide and calcium supplementation, treatment of acute malnutrition, antenatal and postnatal check-ups, other reproductive child health checkup were halted due to restricted mobility.

Several surveys have shown that many had not earned any income during the lockdown, and the food intake by vulnerable communities significantly decreased. Quantity and quality of food consumption decreased for about 74% of the surveyed Dalit families and for about 54% of the surveyed Adivasis. Rampant exclusion errors in the targeting of welfare schemes were magnified. Though state governments instituted measures for home delivery, there were many gaps.

This negative impact of the COVID-19 crisis on nutritional indicators is over and above the reversals reported in the recent data of NFHS-5 (2019-20). The survey results covering 22 states and Union Territories present a vivid demonstration of stagnation in key child malnutrition outcomes – stunting, wasting and share of underweight children across several states. Thirteen states and UTs registered a surge in the percentage of stunted children under five years of age as compared to NFHS 4 (2015-16), whereas 12 states reported an increase in wasted children under the age of five, and 16 recorded a rise in underweight children.

One of the most disturbing effects of the pandemic has been on the nutritional needs of the disadvantaged. Though the government has been pointing to minimal disruption in the meals progarmmes due to its ‘timely interventions’, the acute need to overcome the challenges and ensuring that these do not exclude anyone remains high. At this critical juncture, when the Budget is about to be presented, we have the opportunity to adopt transformative approaches and make significant investments towards addressing the adversities and challenges that many of the country’s citizen’s face.

Also Read: Once in a Century Budget: Statement of Fact or Hope?

Direct nutrition interventions need greater public funding

The Centre and state governments share the funding required for programmes that deliver nutrition interventions. Those schemes focusing on direct nutrition interventions fall under the aegis of the Ministry of Women and Child Development (MWCD), and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW). The pattern of expenditure under ICDS has shown the need for higher allocation. The last Parliamentary Standing Committee report has pointed to consistent shortfalls between demands made by the nodal Ministry of Women and Child Development and allocations made to it. Considering the intensity of the problem of undernutrition in India, the design of Supplementary Nutrition Programme (SNP) needs a correction for provisions for additional measures for marginalised children, also, the government needs to budget at scale. All this necessitates that schemes important for nutrition are given a much higher priority in the upcoming budget.

Shortfalls in Allocations for Schemes of MWCD (2020-21) [In Rs crores]

Scheme Projected Demand Actual Allocation BE Percentage of demand not met
Anganwadi Services 24810 20532 17%
POSHAN Abhiyan 2500 3700  48% (additional)
PMMVY 2875 2500 13%
Scheme for Adolescent Girls 350 250 28%

The proportion of total eligible population covered under the anganwadi services has been very low. It includes 48% of children, 51% of pregnant women and 48% of lactating women. To address the disruptions in food supply, additional measures must be instituted on top priority and backed by adequate resources to ensure expanded coverage and better targeting.

A stronger public health nutrition workforce

The share of the Centre’s contribution to the salary component under anganwadi services has been declining since 2017-18, when it cut down a big number of sanctioned posts. Additionally, the share of the salary component in total Central funding for the scheme has been going down consistently. This is a glaring systemic issue under the scheme, and even fiscally stronger states have vacancies at different levels. This is so as the states are not in a position to fund these posts, they have been asking for higher fiscal support for salaries in their annual programme implementation plans (APIPs). When crucial positions like that of a child development project officers (CDPOs), lady supervisors remain vacant, it hinders the implementation of the scheme and the quality of service delivery.

The institutionalised presence of AWWs, AWHs, ASHAs, ANMs proved a vital resource in our fight against the pandemic. Concerns related to their working conditions are well known: they work under a lot of pressure, do not get compensated adequately for their work. The gaps merit immediate action by the government, most importantly, their honorarium needs to raised, and tied up with adequate social security benefits.

Invest in sectors providing nutrition-sensitive programmes

Optimal nutrition is the result of the inter-connected factors relating to immediate, underlying and basic determinants. Nutrition sensitive interventions address the underlying determinants of undernutrition, and are critical in the overall policy framework for nutrition. Stagnation in nutrition outcomes occurred at a time of rapid improvement in underlying indicators of health such as sanitation and LPG access, which raises some fundamental questions. The overall assessment is that the approach of relying on programmes supporting direct nutrition interventions is not enough to deliver on targets of nutrition.

We certainly need a deeper analysis to understand the factors behind these outcomes, since the period when the survey was conducted was marked by an economic slowdown. These results are likely to have a correlation with the changes in levels of family income in that period.  After all, the adverse effects of falling income have the greatest impact on the food bowls of the most vulnerable.

Also Read: Watch | Seven Things to Watch Out for in Budget 2021

The pandemic has underlined the importance of strengthening public provisioning for nutrition, health, sanitation and other interventions. The threats surrounding nutrition would continue to exist beyond the pandemic. In low-income countries, calories from nutrient-rich, non-staple foods such as eggs, and vegetables can be 10 times more expensive than calories from rice, maize and wheat (Headey and Alderman (2019).

The allocation for a set of nutrition-sensitive schemes including mid-day meals and the public distribution system was found to have reduced by 19% in the last Union Budget, compared to the previous year. Expansion of public services through investments in a range of important schemes under health, nutrition, food security, drinking water is necessary for achieving improved nutrition outcomes. Equally important is securing income through employment opportunities, and strengthened poverty alleviation programmes. The government’s response provided through the first pandemic Budget can be a good beginning to initiate steps for scaling up these programmes.

A helper assists children as she performs her duty at an Anganwadi Centre, in Kancheepuram district in Chennai, India, on Thursday, December 12, 2019. Photo: Burhaan Kinu/Public Services International/Flickr, CC BY 2.0

Revising unit costs for ICDS components is needed  

The cost norms for the Centrally-sponsored schemes are fixed by the Union government. Unit costs for the different categories of beneficiaries under the supplementary nutrition programme (SNP) component of the scheme was last revised in 2017, and though the government also approved annual cost indexation for an increase in rates in future, but the rate has been stagnant since then. In line with the first report of the 15th Finance Commission (applicable for 2020-21), it is expected that this Budget factors in increased cost norms for SNP.

Further, for anganwadi centres to play their role in quality service delivery efficiently, they require proper facilities, improved power supply and adequate physical space. Towards this, the unit cost of constructing new centres needs need to be relooked. Budgetary support towards cost of construction being provided in convergence with the Ministry of Rural Development under the MNREGA must go up from Rs 7 lakh per building, as the scheme has completed four years of implementation. In recognition of this, the state governments have already been demanding that the unit cost per building be increased.

Happy Pant is with the Centre for Budget and Governance Accountability, New Delhi and can be reached at happy@cbgainmdia.org . Views expressed are those of the author, and don’t necessarily reflect the position of CBGA.

Watch | Singhu Border Tense After ‘Locals’ Target Farmers’ Protest Site

The Wire’s Seraj Ali spoke to the injured and the organisers of the protest at the Singhu border hours after the clashes took place on January 29.

On January 29, violence was reported at the Singhu border after a group claiming to be locals of the area tried to uproot the tents of farmers who were protesting there. Police officials resorted to lathi-charge and deployed tear gas to quell stone-pelting.

Several demonstrators from within Singhu’s sit-in protest site were injured in the conflict and they allege that the police did little to control the situation. Meanwhile, police officials have been placing new barricades around the protest sites.

The Wire‘s Seraj Ali spoke to the injured and the organisers of the protest at the Singhu border hours after the clashes took place.

FIRs vs Free Speech, the Signature Tune of Indian Fascism

If Indians who cherish their democracy, their country’s unparalleled diversity of thought and culture, do not recognise the threat to India as a nation that the so-called Hindu rashtravadis pose, then their future will be bleak.

The Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Delhi police’s decision to slap no fewer than ten charges, ranging from criminal conspiracy to sedition, against sitting MP Shashi Tharoor, the respected journalist and editor of National Herald, Mrinal Pande; Rajdeep Sardesai of India Today TV; Zafar Agha, editor of Qaumi Awaaz; and three other journalists of Caravan magazine, paints a stark picture of the desperation that has seized the Bharatiya Janata Party and its parent body, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, as it begins to see the power that it had seized in 2014 and consolidated in 2019, slipping out its grasp.

The method it has chosen to revive its fortunes is one with which we have grown wearily familiar with in the past seven years: use the enormous suo moto powers of arrest and incarceration that the Indian constitution, and previous governments, have given to the police to act against her or  whomsoever their masters desire, spit upon the right of habeas corpus, and imprison and terrorise her or him for an indefinite period of time to break their spirit.

In the past seven years, as the Narendra Modi government has bumbled from one economic blunder to the next, it has come to rely more and more on stoking communal animosity, stifling dissent through the misuse of police powers, buying or blackmailing opposition members into joining the BJP, and using TV and other media to build a larger-than-life image of the prime minister.

The BJP’s reliance on these tactics to discredit some of the most respected members of civil society in India goes back to the early days of Modi’s first term in office and reached a height during and after the Shaheen Bagh movement. The fact that they have used these tactics yet again so soon after the Northeast Delhi pogrom shows that a quiet desperation has begun to sink into the government and the Sangh parivar.

Also read: The New Ruling Elite Will Still Face Defiance

Farmers participate in a tractor march on Republic Day, as part of their protest against the Centre’s farm laws, in Gurugram, January 26, 2021. Photo: PTI

The FIRs filed against Tharoor and the others are absurd. But it is their absurdity that gives away the real, far more sinister, intention of the Modi government. This is to arouse once again the envy and hatred of ‘Lutyens Delhi’ in the lumpen proletariat of northern India, to fan hyper-nationalist paranoia with veiled references to the farmers as Sikhs and Khalistanis, and thus to re-create the hyper-nationalism that enabled it to break the Shaheen Bagh movement a year ago.

All this is apparent from the wording of the FIR lodged in Noida. According to it:

“The accused in a well-planned manner conspired with each other to spread the wrong information about the death of a farmer in police firing. It was intentionally done to incite riots at large scale and create tension among communities …because of their tweets protestors reached Red Fort and installed their religious and other flags where the national was hoisted”. [Emphasis added]

Compare this to what Sardesai and Tharoor actually tweeted: What Rajdeep Sardesai reported about a protester dying of a gunshot was an allegation. No amount of twisting can turn the report of a statement or general perception into its endorsement. This can be inferred only if the reporter allows his or her report to remain unchanged after it has been proved to be false. And the record shows that Sardesai was explicit – on Twitter and on air – in subsequently noting that the young man’s death was due to an accident with his tractor. Shashi Tharoor’s tweets were of the same kind.

Finally, the charge that these seven persons (and another unknown person) instigated the “protestors (who) reached Red Fort and installed their religious and other flags where the national flag (sic) was hoisted” is beyond absurd for, as the photograph below shows, if there was ever a Modi bhakt in Punjab, it was Deep Sidhu, a failed actor who has been photographed supping with home minister Amit Shah, and smiling into the camera with Narendra Modi. It was a group led by Sidhu which climbed the flagpole atop the Red Fort and hoisted a Nishan sahib pennant (not a Khalistan flag) upon it.

A conspiracy hatched after the event

The FIR accuses the seven of a conspiracy but itself concedes that there cannot be a conspiracy without prior planning. Prior planning requires foreknowledge of an event at the very least, if not its instigation. So how could any one of them have known in advance that a farmer trying to break a barrier would overturn his tractor upon himself?

The possibility that a Mrinal Pande, a Zafar Agha, or Caravan editor Vinod Jose (who wrote the most perceptive, and balanced, mini-biography of Modi to have appeared in print, in 2012) would stoop to a conspiracy of any kind is, simply, ludicrous. But it should not be dismissed lightly. First, the Delhi, UP and Haryana police have not stopped at ‘conspiracy’ but also accused them of ‘sedition’.

It must know that the second charge will fail automatically when the absurdity of the first is exposed. But the charge of sedition can prevent the immediate dismissal of the FIR, for sedition is a grave offence.  Along with the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act – which is dealt with by the National Intelligence Agency, Modi’s preferred instrument for sowing terror into those who disagree with his policies – sedition has become the new route to ensuring lengthy pre-trial incarceration.

This is how the Modi government has been keeping civil rights activists accused of being Maoists in the Elgar Parishad case in jail without trial for more than two years.

Also read: As Support for Farmers’ Agitation Swells, Is the State Crackdown Backfiring?

Whether the Modi government will actually pursue this absurd case of conspiracy and sedition against the seven latest targets remains to be seen, but the fear that its ruthless disregard for the constitution and human rights has shown so far will burrow deeper into the populace in the coming months till, quite possibly, by the time the next elections come there will be only the ragged remnants of civil society left to oppose him in the public sphere.

If Indians who cherish their democracy, their country’s religious syncretism, and its unparalleled diversity of thought and culture, do not recognise the threat to India’s existence as a nation that the so-called Hindu rashtravadis in reality pose, then their future will be bleak.

In seven years, more out of ignorance than ill will, the Modi government’s policies have stalled industrialisation, allowed scores of half-completed infrastructure projects to turn into mouldering ruins, bankrupted an entire post-liberalisation generation of entrepreneurs, brought economic growth down to less than two-thirds of what it had been during the Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh years, and brought employment growth close to zero.

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Photo: PTI/Files

Not content with this, Modi has alienated every neighbouring country in South Asia, and allowed the country to float to the brink of a war with China. But worst of all, he has allowed the minions of the RSS and various branches of the Sangh parivar to polarise the country along Hindu-Muslim lines, and has now begun working on the Sikhs.

At the age of 82, being among the last few who physically remember the euphoria of independence, I think I have a better claim to being able to see where this government is dragging our country. Only an opposition that sets aside its petty bickering and opportunism, and unites across the north, the south and the east, and respects their diverse needs and cultures, can save the India upon whose survival and economic growth their common future depends.