Nepal will hold its second election for the federal parliament and provincial assemblies on November 20 under the constitution it adopted in 2015. The first election was held in November 2017.
The election promises to be a two-horse race between two political alliances – the ruling five-party group led by the Nepali Congress (NC) and the other coalition led by K.P. Sharma Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML).
In the country’s parliamentary history, this is going to be the first time that elections will be held after the completion of an entire term of the parliament.
But such a record is not for want of efforts by Oli.
Political parties had agreed to hold the elections to the parliament and those to the provincial assemblies simultaneously with the view that the results of one election may also affect the other. The country’s Election Commission also suggested that simultaneous elections would reduce expenses.
Oli had, notably, twice dissolved the parliament – in 2020 and 2021 – and gone for mid-term elections. All Nepal prime ministers after 1990 have done this. But for Oli, the Supreme Court reinstated the parliament both times, stating that the constitution envisions a full five-year tenure until parliament elects a new prime minister.
Supporters of caretaker Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli protest against the reinstatement of parliament by the Supreme Court, in Kathmandu, Nepal July 12, 2021. Photo: Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar
The 2022 election in numbers
According to the latest census published this year, Nepal’s population is about 30 million. Over 17.9 million people, including 8.8 million women and 9.1 million men, and 185 members of the LGBTQI community, will cast their votes to elect a new prime minister, president, speaker and chief ministers of seven provinces through their directly elected representatives.
The number of seats of the House of Representatives is 275. Of these, 165 are elected through the First Past The Post (FPTP) category and 110 under the Proportional Representation (PR) category.
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For the 165 seats under the FPTP category, over 2,400 party and independent candidates have submitted their nomination papers. The number of women candidates is around 200. There is only a single candidate from the LGBTQI community.
For the provincial assemblies, about 3,000 candidates are contesting the elections. There are 550 provincial assembly seats, in total, with the assembly sizes ranging from 40 to 110 seats based on electoral constituencies. For election security, around 300,000 personnel will be deployed.
How inclusive is Nepal’s electoral process?
Nepal adopted an inclusive policy of ensuring the representation of women and marginalised communities in state organs after signing the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2006 and in the constituent assembly elections in 2008.
In South Asia, Nepal’s 2015 constitution is a landmark example of progression and the cementing of an inclusive agenda. The constitution makes it mandatory for political parties to file a closed list of candidates to the Election Commission for the Proportional Representation (PR) category. After the elections, the Election Commission will select candidates from this list for various PR seats reserved for women, Dalit people, those belonging to indigenous nationalities (Aadibasi Janajati), the Khas Arya, the Madhesi, Tharu people, Muslim people and those belonging to the backward regions.
Similarly, parties are supposed to consider geographical and regional balance while choosing candidates.
Though parties have honoured inclusion under the PR category, the number of women contesting direct elections is still very low.
There is also a strong criticism centring the claim that only those connected with Nepal’s powerful politicians have repeatedly been nominated under the PR category, thus blocking new faces. For example, Nepali Congress has nominated Prime Minister Deuba’s wife, Arzu Rana Deuba and home minister Bal Krishna Khand’s wife Manju Khand in the PR list, which has led to dissatisfaction within the party.
A two-horse race
The November 20 elections can be termed a direct fight between two sides because all major parties have coalesced around two alliances, one led by NC and another by CPN-UML.
The members of the NC-led electoral alliance are the CPN (Maoist Center), CPN (Unified Socialist), Socialist Party Nepal and other fringe parties, sometimes called the ‘democratic-left’ alliance. CPN-UML leads the second alliance, and its members are the Upendra Yadav-led Janata Samajbadi, the royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party and other smaller parties.
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These alliances are not based on ideologies but on electoral calculations.
It is the first time that Nepal’s grand old party NC is contesting only 84 out of 165 constituencies under the FPTP category, which has already created dissatisfaction inside the party.
In 2017, a powerful left alliance had been formed, while NC fought the elections alone.
UML leader K.P. Oli (left) shaking hands with CPN-Maoist Centre leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda”. Photo: Reuters
So what happened earlier?
The first parliamentary elections under the new constitution were held in 2017 in multiple phases.
There was an electoral alliance between CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center). The CPN-UML emerged the largest party, while NC faced a humiliating defeat in the elections, with only 63 seats in the House of Representatives.
In 2018, CPN-UML and the CPN Maoist party merged to form the Nepal Communist Party. After the merger, Oli became the prime minister, but due to a power-sharing dispute with Pushpa Kamal Dahal or ‘Prachanda’, the government was dissolved in 2021.
The Nepal Communist Party, therefore, split. A Supreme Court order paved the way for the revival of CPN-UML and the CPN Maoist Party. Later, a senior leader of CPN-UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal, broke away from the party and formed the CPN (Unified Socialist), which is now in the ruling alliance.
What about independent candidates?
In the local elections held in May, some independent candidates, like Balendra Shah who won the post of mayor of Kathmandu valley, were victorious.
Buoyed by the results of the local elections, scores of independent candidates have filed papers for the November 20 elections, hoping to tap into the electorate’s growing frustration with major political parties.
How are the alliances doing?
The current ruling alliance has high prospects of performing well in the elections. This is because NC emerged as the largest party in the local elections held in May.
Similarly, CPN (Maoist Centre) also improved its position in the polls. CPN (Unified Socialist), which split from the CPN (UML) last year, is also an important ally.
Birendra International Convention Centre, where the Nepalese parliament meets. Photo: Wikimedia Commons CC BY-SA 3.0
UML, a strong cadre-based party, has also strengthened its position by aligning with the Upendra Yadav-led party and some royalist parties. Due to their respective alliances, the strength of major parties NC and UML can be assumed to have slightly decreased. While NC is contesting just 84 seats out of 165 constituencies under the FPTP category, UML is contesting 135 seats, and Maoist Centre has submitted nominations in 47 seats.
Why is Madhes a factor?
After Nepal turned into a republic in 2008 through the first Constituent Assembly elections, Madhes-based parties emerged as a dominant political force. They played a vital role in the formation and dissolution of governments.
When the constitution was promulgated, a section of Madhes-based parties protested against it. Madhes-based parties have almost abandoned their constitutional amendment agenda and are instead keen to forge alliances for power. This time, Madhes-based parties do not have any alliances among themselves.
Janata Samajbadi Party, led by Upendra Yadav, has allied with K.P. Sharma Oli, while Loktantrik Samajbadi Party, led by veteran Madhesi leader Mahantha Thakur has made an alliance with the ruling five-party coalition. Madhes-based parties’ alliance with NC and UML is not based on ideology but rather on compulsions to do with winnable seats.
Who will the PM be?
Three leaders – Sher Bahadur Deuba, K.P. Sharma Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal – are in the race to become prime minister. But chances of the emergence of a new prime ministerial candidate cannot be completely ruled out.
If the pre-election coalition remains together, NC is highly likely to support Dahal as the prime minister for the first two and half years on the condition that Deuba takes over the post for the remaining parliamentary term.
Similarly, a power-sharing agreement between K.P. Sharma Oli and other parties cannot be ruled out after the elections. A power-sharing deal between like-minded parties would also have to reach a common understanding on the posts of the President and Speaker.
Sher Bahadur Deuba in June 7, 2017. Photo: Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar/Files
Foreign powers
External forces are closely watching Nepal’s November elections.
The United States and its Western allies would prefer not to have a powerful communist government in Kathmandu.
At the same time, China is openly pushing either for a communist-party-led government or a government where communist parties maintain a strong influence. China is thus understood to be pushing for Nepal’s left parties to come together.
New Delhi has kept a deliberately low profile, and is visibly equidistant from all three prime ministerial prospects.
Will Nepal achieve political stability?
Chances are slim of Nepal acquiring political stability after elections, especially since there is a likelihood of a coalition government of more than two parties being formed. An agreement between either NC and Maoist or UML and Maoist to lead the government on equal terms could sow the seeds of instability.
In 2018, with the formation of a powerful government under Oli’s leadership, there was some hope of a period of stability, but parties missed that window of opportunity.
Despite political upheaval in the past two years, elections will occur within the constitutional deadline, thus narrowly avoiding a crisis. This will further cement Nepal’s nascent federalism and republicanism. Anti-constitutional forces will further weaken. Despite the political instability, there is a silver lining – Nepal’s democracy has spread strong roots.
Kamal Dev Bhattarai is a Kathmandu-based journalist and political commentator.