Adani US Indictment: Jaganmohan Reddy Under Fire Over ‘Foreign Official #1’ Who Got Rs 1750-Crore Bribe

There is a swirl of controversy over the actions of the former Andhra Pradesh chief minister Jaganmohan Reddy who was at the helm of affairs in the state in the duration of the purported scandal involving bribes having been paid to Indians.

New Delhi: The mention of one “Foreign Official #1” who is alleged as having received Rs 1,750 crores as bribe from the Adani Group in the US Attorney’s Offices’s criminal indictment against billionaire industrialist Gautam Adani has caused a storm in Andhra Pradesh’s political circles.

There is a swirl of controversy over the actions of the former Andhra Pradesh chief minister Jaganmohan Reddy who was at the helm of affairs in Andhra Pradesh in the duration of the purported scandal involving bribes having been paid to Indians.

The indictment alleges that Gautam Adani himself was personally involved in talks in which “more than $250 million was promised in bribes to Indian government officials to secure solar energy contracts.” Adani Group has called the charges baseless and denied them.

The US laws allow investigations against foreign corruption if US markets are involved or impacted.

The public copy of the indictment anonymises several names and institutions, among which is “Foreign Official #1.”

The indictment notes that #1 was a citizen of India who resided in India. “From approximately May 2019 through June 2024, Foreign Official #1 served as a high-ranking government official of Andhra Pradesh, India,” it said.

In June 2024, Andhra Pradesh saw a change in government, with Jaganmohan Reddy being voted out of power and Chandrababu Naidu being elected chief minister.

The indictment said that Adani “personally met with Foreign Official #1 in Andhra Pradesh to advance the execution of a PSA between SECI and Andhra Pradesh’s state electricity distribution companies, including on or about August 7, 2021, on or about September 12, 2021 and on or about November 20, 2021.”

On September 13, 2021, Andhra media had reported Jagan meeting with Adani and other Group officials without him disclosing the fact or details of those meetings.

A report on September 13 said that in September 2021, Gautam Adani “along with his brothers” met Jagan at the then chief minister’s Tadepalli residence. There was no official update on the visit, the report said, noting that this goes against tradition when it comes to such a meeting.

Another report noted that the other Adani with Gautam was his brother Karan who was the chief executive officer of Adani Ports and SEZ Limited.

Before this visit, the Andhra Pradesh government made a move to sell its 10.4% stake in the Gangavaram port to the Adani Group, which at that time had around 89.61% stake in the port. The move was challenged in the high court.

The Communist Party of India (CPI) had demanded the Andhra Pradesh government disclose the details of this secret meeting between Jagan and Adani, following which the Andhra Pradesh state cabinet adopted resolutions to allow Adani group to set up 9,000 megawatt solar power plants in the state.

The party had asked why the contract was given to Adani alone when several contractors, and some closer home, could have shared the execution of the project.

The indictment said, “Approximately 1,750 crore rupees (approximately $228 million) of the corrupt payments was offered to Foreign Official #1 in exchange for Foreign Official #1 causing Andhra Pradesh’s state electricity distribution companies to agree to purchase seven gigawatts of solar power from SECI under the Manufacturing Linked Project.”

The indictment notes that Andhra Pradesh’s electricity distribution companies entered into a PSA [or power supply agreement] with SECI on or about December 1, 2021, pursuant to which the state agreed to purchase approximately seven gigawatts of solar power – by far the largest amount of any Indian state or region. 

SECI or Solar Energy Corporation of India was a company of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy under the Narendra Modi-ruled Union government of India. “SECI was stateowned and state-controlled and performed a function that India treated as its own. SECI was an “instrumentality” of the Indian government,” the indictment says.

A month after the alleged meeting between Adani and Jagan, in 2021, a report in an Andhra outlet said that Jagan was attracting attention over his use of special private jets owned by the Adanis and Ambanis. In October, Jagan had used an Adani flight to Chittoor to visit the Tirupati temple. In August, before his meeting with the Adanis, he had used a flight owned by the Reliance Group.

Could a ‘Transactional’ Trump Leverage the Pannun Case to Get Modi to Buy US Fighter Aircraft?

Such a gambit would eventually depend on the culpability levels of India’s security establishment in the Sikh activist’s intended killing, and the credibility of its denials which, so far, has been somewhat questionable.

Chandigarh: Donald Trump’s comeback to the US presidency has spawned optimistic speculation in Indian security and defence circles – that a line is likely to be drawn by his incoming administration under the disquieting issue regarding the Modi government’s alleged involvement in Sikh separatist leader Gurpatwant Pannun’s planned assassination in New York last year.

But a cross section of senior military veterans and analysts believe that any US willingness to help Modi bury l’affaire Pannun could come at a heavy price under Trump, which they anticipate may well be the $25-billion purchase of 114 US fighters by the Indian Air Force (IAF) as part of its long-pending Multi Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) requirement.

“The MRFA is needed as of yesterday,” Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh had declared last month in his annual presser, highlighting the criticality of timely platform procurements to sustain the IAFs operational readiness by boosting its fighter squadron numbers that had declined to 29-30 from a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons. This former number will reduce further imminently, after the IAF’s two remaining ground attack MiG-21’Bison’ squadrons, comprising 40 legacy platforms, are number-plated or decommissioned next year.

Three US-origin combat aircraft are amongst eight overseas fighters potentially vying for the IAF’s MRFA buy. Analysts are of the view that the inbound Trump administration could possibly use the political leverage it clearly has over Delhi to acquire one such fighter type as an undeclared form of ‘blood money’ for Washington to diplomatically entomb the Pannun dispute. To be sure, legal proceedings on the Pannun case would continue in a New York court but care would then be taken to firewall the Indian establishment and its senior officials and leaders from embarrassing allegations of involvement.

The 78-year-old president-designate fancies himself as a master negotiator, capable of deploying his business acumen into the world of politics and diplomacy, especially by taking advantage of potentially profitable, but questionable, deals, including those involving allies.

In official circles in Delhi, Trump’s return to the White House is widely viewed as a boost for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP-led government that has faced a certain amount of unwelcome scrutiny from the Biden administration and Democratic lawmakers for avidly propagating Hindu nationalist policies domestically, and more, recently, allegedly planning and executing extra-judicial killings in the US and Canada.

A recent Bloomberg analysis of which world leaders would profit or lose from Trump’s return, anticipated that Modi would agree to deals with Washington, without the ‘finger wagging’ he has had to recently endure. It also goes on to state that a Trump presidency may not support Canada’s push to hold the Indian government accountable for the killing of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Nijjar in British Columbia last June. Trump’s animosity towards and disdain for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is well known.

Other diplomatic and policy analysts in Delhi suggest that, for assorted security, strategic and commercial considerations, and in consonance with Trump’s personal equation with Modi, Washington’s new administration would summarily move towards concluding the Pannun affair, albeit gainfully, perhaps in exchange for US fighters for the IAF.

No serving or retired Indian military or security official, or diplomat, was willing to be named in commenting on such a sensitive and speculative matter, but many privately conceded that such a ‘trade-off’ could ensue, given Trump’s widely acknowledged ‘transactional’ propensities. “Trump is a typical businessman, forever looking to leverage his advantage for profit,” said a retired three-star IAF officer. It’s quite conceivable that Trump, along with his like-minded cabinet, could foresee a ‘ripe deal’ in settling the Pannun matter to suit a panicked Indian government, by manoeuvring it to their pecuniary benefit.

But what, after all, is the putative MRFA procurement, who are the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) competing for it and how favourably does the US line up in this race?

Delays in inducting some 180 variants of the indigenously developed Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) to replace legacy fighters like the MiG-21’s and 100-115 ageing SEPECAT Jaguars has prompted the MRFA acquisition, the request for proposal (RfP) or tender for which is likely to be dispatched sometime in 2025 or early the following year. In his October presser, ACM Singh had declared that if the under development advanced LCA- Mk2 and the MRFA purchase progress as planned, the IAF could conceivably deploy 36 fighter squadrons over the next decade.

The MRFA procurement envisages importing a squadron of 18 fighters in flyaway condition from a shortlisted OEM, six of whom responded to the IAFs April 2019 request for information (RfI) offering eight fighter types. The remaining 96 platforms would be built indigenously, via a collaborative venture between the qualified OEM and a domestic strategic partner (SP) from either the private or public sector, with progressively enhanced levels of indigenisation in a deal, currently estimated at around $25 billion.

The OEMs who responded to the RfI include Dassault (Rafale), Eurofighter (Typhoon), Sweden’s Saab (Gripen-E), Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation and Sukhoi Corporation (MiG-35 ‘Fulcrum-F’ and Su-35 ‘Flanker-E’ respectively) and the US’s Boeing and Lockheed Martin (F/A-18E/F ‘Super Hornet’ and F-15EX ‘Eagle’ II and the F-21, principally an upgraded F-16 derivative, configured specially for the IAF).

In view of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, evaluating the two fuel-intensive Russian fighters for eventual IAF acquisition was, according to senior officers ‘ totally irrational’, considering the grave spares and components crisis the force is facing with regard to its fleet of 259 multi-role Sukhoi-30 MKI’s and some 60 MiG-29UPG fighter-bombers.

“Delhi’s druzhba or friendship with Moscow, which sustained prodigious bilateral military commerce between the two, worth over $70 billion over nearly six decades, seems to have more-or-less run its course,” said former MoD acquisitions advisor Amit Cowshish. The materiel road for India, he added, now leads to Western vendors and towards fast-tracking ‘atmanirbharta‘ to indigenously develop weapon systems and platforms, or to a practical blend of the two, underscored by technology transfers.

The Typhoon had been rejected earlier during trials conducted 2010 onwards for the IAFs binned Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) contract floated in 2007, as were the Gripen-E and the US’s F-18 and the F-16 – the precursor to the F-21 – on multiple operational capability counts. Moreover, the Gripen-E and the F-21 were single-engine platforms, and though the MRFA RfI had not specified any preference for fighters with single or dual power packs, the IAFs intrinsic preference for the latter remains unstated. And though the OEM’s claimed that their platforms had since been equipped with newer and more advanced technologies and weaponry, the IAF, it seems, remained unimpressed.

Vajraang formation comprising of a C 130 Super Hercules transport aircraft in the centre flanked by two Rafale multirole fighters on either side on Republic Day, January 26, 2023. Photo: PIB

The Rafale, on the other hand, is favourably placed in the MRFA sweepstakes, due not only to its operational superiority over its competitors, as acknowledged by the IAF but more recently by the Indian Navy (N), that is negotiating the purchase of 26 Rafale-M (Maritime) fighters for deployment aboard INS Vikrant, India’s indigenously built aircraft carrier. Dassault had also recently secured clearance to establish a fully self-owned maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facility near Jewar International airport in Uttar Pradesh to support not just the IAFs fleet of some-50-odd Mirage 2000Hs fighters and eventually 62 Rafales, including 26 of the IN, but also the 42 Rafale’ operated by the Indonesian Air Force, thereby enhancing its MRFA acceptability.

Once the purchase of 26 Rafale-Ms by the IN is completed, the Indian military would have an aggregate of 62 of these French fighters in its inventory. “Adding to these numbers makes eminent commercial, logistical and operational sense”, said military analyst Air Marshal V K ‘Jimmy’ Bhatia (retd). Besides, acquiring supplementary Rafales under the MRFA purchase, he added would also streamline the IAFs diverse fighter catalogue, which currently features seven different aircraft types, sustaining all of which was not only an enduring logistical challenge, but also a hugely expensive affair for the financially overstretched force.

But despite these obvious advantages favouring the Rafale, a slew of recent media reports, quoting unnamed official sources, ruled the French fighter out of the MRFA contest. These stated that the government wanted to ‘play safe’ by pursuing a ‘non-controversial path’ in executing the MRFA buy, since the IAFs 2016 purchase of 36 Dassault Rafale’s for around Rs 59,000 crore via a government-to-government deal, had become hugely contentious and a major parliamentary election issue in the 2019 polls. Allegations of wrongdoing in this purchase had also featured in the Supreme Court, where matters of national security were, perforce, made public, these reports claimed.

Moreover, these media accounts quoted unidentified defence officials as stating that even in the event of the Rafale being shortlisted as the IAFs MRFA choice, Dassault would be unable to supply the platforms for at least 10 years due to pending orders from various other countries. Such delays, the reports added, would undermine the MRFA programme’s urgency in making up IAF fighter squadron numbers swiftly, adversely impacting Rafale’s chances in the MRFA contest.

Hence, this process of elimination leaves only Boeing’s twin-engine F-15EX Eagle II all-weather multirole 4.5 generation fighter in the fray. Derived from the erstwhile McDonnell Douglas F-15E ‘Strike Eagle’ model dating back to the mid-1980s, the upgraded Eagle II conducted its first flight in 2021 and become operational in June 2024 with the US Air Force that, so far, has placed an order for 104 units.

Trump’s possible ‘aircraft-for-Pannun’ gambit would eventually depend on the culpability levels of India’s security establishment in the Sikh activist’s intended killing, and the credibility of its denials which, so far, has been somewhat questionable. If so, it’s conceivable that Trump’s scheme could prevail and perhaps lead to the IAF spending $25 billion to acquire a US-origin fighter.

‘Ludicrous’: India Rejects Canadian Media Report Alleging Modi’s Link to Sikh Separatist’s Murder

The report also claimed that not only Indian home minister Amit Shah, but also national security adviser Ajit Doval and external affairs minister S Jaishankar were “in the loop.”

New Delhi: India has dismissed a Canadian media report allegedly linking Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a conspiracy to kill a Sikh separatist in Canada as “ludicrous” and a “smear campaign”, warning that that such allegations would only deepen the tension in bilateral ties.

In a statement on Wednesday night (November 20), the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said, “We do not normally comment on media reports. However, such ludicrous statements made to a newspaper purportedly by a Canadian government source should be dismissed with the contempt they deserve.” He added that “campaigns like this only further damage our already strained ties.”

The Canadian newspaper, The Globe and Mail, reported on Wednesday that “Canadian security agencies believe Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India knew about the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia and other violent plots,” citing an unnamed “senior national-security official who worked on the intelligence assessment of New Delhi’s foreign-interference operations in Canada.”

The report also claimed that not only Indian home minister Amit Shah, but also national security adviser Ajit Doval and external affairs minister S Jaishankar were “in the loop.”

“While Canada does not have direct evidence that Mr. Modi knew, the official said the assessment is that it would be unthinkable that three senior political figures in India would not have discussed the targeted killings with Mr. Modi before proceeding,” said the report.

The newspaper also added a statement from the Privy Council Office that while the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) said Indian government agents have been involved in serious criminal activity in Canada, there “have been no allegations made by the Government of Canada against Prime Minister Modi, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, or National Security Advisor Doval.”

The Privy Council Office’s statement did not mention Shah, although Canadian deputy foreign affairs minister David Morrison told a parliamentary panel last month that he had confirmed to a US newspaper that the home minister was “involved” in the plot to kill Canadian nationals.

On October 14, the Washington Post cited Canadian officials who claimed that they had informed the Indian government that “conversations and texts among Indian diplomats” expelled that day “include references” to Shah and a senior official in the research and analysis wing “who have authorised… intelligence-gathering missions and attacks on Sikh separatists” in Canada.

India subsequently summoned Canada’s acting deputy high commissioner Geoffrey Dean and handed him a diplomatic note protesting Morrison’s statements as “absurd” and “baseless”. “It was conveyed in the note that the government of India protests in the strongest terms to the absurd and baseless references made to the Union home minister of India before the committee by deputy minister David Morrison,” the external affairs ministry spokesperson said at a press briefing.

The diplomatic stand-off between India and Canada escalated in October as both nations expelled six diplomats each, including their respective top envoys.

Also read: Delhi Court Grants Vikash Yadav Exemption From Case Hearing Citing Security Concerns

On October 14, India revealed that Canada had identified six Indian diplomats, including high commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma, as “persons of interest” in a criminal investigation. In response, the external affairs ministry summoned Canada’s chargé d’affaires to announce the withdrawal of the diplomats and declared six Canadian diplomats as personae non gratae.

Simultaneously, Canada confirmed that it had issued expulsion notices to the six Indian diplomats stationed in Ottawa.

That same day, the RCMP held a press briefing, disclosing that their investigations extended beyond the Hardeep Singh Nijjar shooting and included evidence implicating Indian diplomats in allegedly using jailed gangster Lawrence Bishnoi’s gang to target Canadian nationals.

 

Gautam Adani Indicted in US Over ‘Hundreds of Millions of Dollars in Bribes to Indian Govt Officials’

The US Attorney’s Office statement says that Adani is accused of personally being involved in the scheme, that he met with an Indian government official to advance the scheme, which took place between 2020 to 2024. The Adani Group has denied the charges.

New Delhi: The Securities and Exchange Commission and the Attorney’s Office of the United States have charged billionaire industrialist Gautam Adani over his alleged role in what they have called is a “massive bribery scheme.” The Adani Group has called the charges “baseless” and denied them.

US law allows foreign corruption allegations to be investigated if they involve links to US markets.

The Attorney’ Office has it in its statement that Adani is accused of personally being involved in the scheme, that he met with an Indian government official to advance the scheme, which took place between 2020 to 2024. “The defendants frequently met and discussed the bribery scheme, including evidence on several phones,” it says.

“More than $250 million was promised in bribes to Indian government officials, to secure solar energy contracts,” it says.

Adani, who heads the Adani Group, and his nephew Sagar have been indicted for their roles as executives of Adani Green Energy Ltd. Cyril Cabanes, an executive of Azure Power Global Ltd, has also been charged.

The SEC’s complaint against Gautam and Sagar Adani charges them with violating the antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws. The complaint seeks permanent injunctions, civil penalties, and officer and director bars.

In parallel action, the Attorney’s Office’s five-count criminal indictment in a federal court in Brooklyn charges along with Gautam and Sagar Adani, Vneet S. Jaain, with “conspiracies to commit securities and wire fraud and substantive securities fraud for their roles in a multi-billion-dollar scheme to obtain funds from U.S. investors and global financial institutions on the basis of false and misleading statements.” The indictment also charges Ranjit Gupta and Rupesh Agarwal, former executives of a renewable-energy company with securities that had traded on the New York Stock Exchange, and Cyril Cabanes, Saurabh Agarwal and Deepak Malhotra, former employees of a Canadian institutional investor, with conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in connection with the bribery scheme.

“Gautam S. Adani and seven other business executives allegedly bribed the Indian government to finance lucrative contracts designed to benefit their businesses. Adani and other defendants also defrauded investors by raising capital on the basis of false statements about bribery and corruption, while still other defendants allegedly attempted to conceal the bribery conspiracy by obstructing the government’s investigation,” stated FBI assistant director in charge James E. Dennehy.

Bloomberg had reported in March this year that such an investigation was afoot. The Adani Group had then told the news outlet that it was not aware of any such probe against chairman Adani. “As a business group that operates with the highest standards of governance, we are subject to and fully compliant with anti-corruption and anti-bribery laws in India and other countries,” it had said.

Adani group stocks faced a heavy drubbing during early trade today, with Adani Energy and Adani Enterprises tumbling 20%.

Before the Adani Group officially responded, Adani Green Energy Ltd announced the decision to halt its proposed $600-million dollar-denominated bond issue. “The company announced its decision to scrap the bond issue in a regulatory filing, citing the indictment as the reason for its subsidiaries’ plans to defer the bond offering,” a report said.

Adani response: ‘We are a law-abiding organisation’

In a media statement, the group has said that allegations made by the US Department of Justice and the US Securities and Exchange Commission against the directors of Adani Green are “baseless and denied.”

It sought to remind readers that the charges were allegations at present, quoting the US Department of Justice’s own disclaimer:

“As stated by the US Department of Justice itself, “the charges in the indictment are allegations and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.” All possible legal recourse will be sought.”

The group said that it has always upheld and is steadfastly committed to “maintaining the highest standards of governance, transparency and regulatory compliance across all jurisdictions of its operations.”

“We assure our stakeholders, partners and employees that we are a law-abiding organisation, fully compliant with all laws,” it added.

Attorney’s office charges

The Attorney’s Office breaks down the charges as such:

“…[B]etween approximately 2020 and 2024, the defendants agreed to pay more than $250 million in bribes to Indian government officials to obtain lucrative solar energy supply contracts with the Indian government, which were projected to generate more than $2 billion in profits after tax over an approximately 20-year period (the Bribery Scheme).”

Noting, as mentioned above, that on several occasions, Gautam Adani personally met with an Indian government official to advance the bribery scheme, and the defendants held in-person meetings with each other to discuss aspects of its execution, the indictment says that defendants “frequently discussed their efforts in furtherance of the bribery scheme, including through an electronic messaging application.”

Notably, in 2021, the Communist Party of India (CPI) had demanded the Andhra Pradesh government disclose the details of a secret meeting between then chief minister Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy and Adani, following which the Andhra Pradesh state cabinet adopted resolutions to allow Adani group to set up 9,000 megawatt solar power plants in the state. The party had asked why the contract was given to Adani alone when several contractors, and some closer home, could be divided the project.

The Adanis and the other indicted executives also extensively documented their corrupt efforts, the Attorney Office indictment alleges. “For example, Sagar R. Adani used his cellular phone to track specific details of the bribes offered and promised to government officials; Vneet S. Jaain used his cellular phone to photograph a document summarizing various bribe amounts the U.S. Issuer owed the Indian Energy Company for its respective portion of the bribes; and Rupesh Agarwal prepared and distributed to other defendants multiple analyses using PowerPoint and Excel that summarized various options for paying and concealing bribe payments (Bribery Analyses).”

Adani, Sagar Adani and Jaain also allegedly conspired to misrepresent Adani Green’s anti-bribery and corruption practices and conceal the bribery scheme from US investors and international financial institutions in order to obtain financing, including to fund those solar energy supply contracts procured through bribery.

Indian stock exchanges mentioned

It is noteworthy that the US Attorney’s Office noted that in March this year, Individual #2 [names of some individuals and financial institutions have been anonymised in the public copy of the indictment] “emailed employees of Financial Institution #2, Financial Institution #3 and Financial Institution #4 letters that the Indian Energy Company had sent to the National Stock Exchange of India and BSE Limited, both Indian stock exchanges.”

It said, “The letters falsely stated, among other things, that the Indian Energy Company “has not received any notice from the Department of Justice of U.S. in respect of the allegation referred to in the [2024 News Article]” and that the Indian Energy Company was “aware of an investigation” into potential violations of United States anti-corruption laws by a “third party.””

SEC charges

According to the SEC’s allegations, the bribery scheme was orchestrated to enable the two renewable energy companies to capitalise on a multi-billion-dollar solar energy project that the companies had been awarded by the Indian government. “During the alleged scheme, Adani Green raised more than $175 million from US investors and Azure Power’s stock was traded on the New York Stock Exchange,” the statement by the SEC said.

According to the SEC’s complaint, Gautam and Sagar Adani “orchestrated a bribery scheme that involved paying or promising to pay the equivalent of hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to Indian government officials” to secure their commitment to purchase energy at above-market rates that would benefit Adani green and Azure Power.

The scheme was allegedly in play in 2021, when in a note offering, Adani Green claimed that it raised $750 million, including approximately $175 million from US investors. “The Adani Green offering materials included statements about its anti-corruption and anti-bribery efforts that were materially false or misleading in light of Gautam and Sagar Adani’s conduct,” the SEC has said.

The charge against Cyril Cabanes, a former member of Azure Power’s Board of Directors, is under the US’s Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). According to the SEC’s complaint, Cabanes allegedly facilitated the authorisation of bribes in furtherance of the scheme while in the United States and abroad.

“As alleged, Gautam and Sagar Adani induced US investors to buy Adani Green bonds through an offering process that misrepresented not only that Adani Green had a robust anti-bribery compliance program but also that the company’s senior management had not and would not pay or promise to pay bribes, and Cyril Cabanes participated in the underlying bribery scheme while serving as director of a US public company,” said Sanjay Wadhwa, Acting Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement said.

“We will continue to vigorously pursue and hold individuals, including senior corporate officers and directors, accountable when they violate our securities laws.”

This article is being updated with details as they come in.

Can ASEAN’s Cybersecurity Push Protect People and Economies?

Taking the lead on cybersecurity, both through the Norms Implementation Checklist and the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team, is crucial to the security of people and economies in Southeast Asia.

As ransomware attacks and cyber-scams surge across Southeast Asia, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is stepping up to create a more secure regional cyberspace.

With cyber criminals targeting the region’s critical infrastructure, including data centres, and young and old users at risk of falling victim to digital scams, ASEAN’s efforts are not only about digital security — they’re also aimed at protecting economic and social stability.

In October 2024, ASEAN members launched two major initiatives.

First, the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT) opened its Singapore headquarters to boost collaboration on cybersecurity incident response, with Malaysia leading as the first overall coordinator.

This response team focuses on critical areas including information-sharing and strengthening public-private partnerships to bolster defences across the region.

In the same month, the Cyber Security Agency of Singapore and Malaysia’s National Cyber Security Agency introduced the Norms Implementation Checklist.

This list of action points aims to guide ASEAN nations in promoting responsible behaviour in cyberspace, based on United Nations (UN) cybersecurity norms.

Responding to a surge in cyberattacks

This year, the region has experienced a spate of major ransomware attacks. For example, a major incident occurred in June, when the Brain Cipher ransomware group disrupted the data centre operations of more than 200 government agencies in Indonesia.

Critical information infrastructure supports government and other essential services, so any disruption can cause severe socio-economic impacts that undermine public trust in government.

The threat of disruption from cybersecurity incidents extends to the private sector where, for example, in Singapore, three out of five companies polled had paid ransom during cyberattacks in 2023.

In addition, cyber scams are a major crime concern: they often impact vulnerable groups and are now so common they have become a regional security threat.

The rapid pace of digitalisation in Southeast Asia, coupled with low digital literacy and the ease of conducting online financial transactions, has facilitated a sharp increase in cyber scams such as phishing and social media scams.

Tackling cyber scams at the source is challenging. Transnational organised crime groups thrive in Southeast Asian countries with limited cybersecurity and insufficient law enforcement capabilities.

They often collude with local power structures: for example, they operate in conflict areas near the border of Myanmar, where they collude with militant groups.

Given these increasing threats, the launch of the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team is a promising effort to enhance cooperation among Southeast Asian countries.

The eight functions of the response team — which include information-sharing, training and exercises, as well as developing partnerships with academic institutions and industry — aim to strengthen regional coordination on cyber incident response.

Incident response is a critical part of the region’s attempts to mitigate the impact of malicious cyber activities such as ransomware and the epidemic of cyber scams.

Strengthening ASEAN’s strategic position in cyberspace

In 2018, ASEAN agreed to subscribe in principle to the 11 UN norms of responsible state behaviour in cyberspace.

While their full potential has not yet been realised, these 11 norms, set out in the UN’s Norms Implementation Checklist, could play a crucial role in helping ASEAN member states progress from ‘in principle’ to ‘in practice’ in the cybersecurity space. These norms aim to guide countries’ national cyber policies to align with the rules-based international order set out by the UN.

Adherence to these cyber norms (such as fostering inter-state cooperation on security, preventing misuse of Information and communications technologies, and cooperating to stop crime and terrorism) could, ideally, complement the work of the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team in responding to malicious cyber activities and fighting cyber scams.

Regional implementation of these norms could contribute to an environment of trust and confidence among ASEAN countries, to create stability in Southeast Asia’s cyberspace.

There are strategic reasons for creating regional cyberspace stability. As the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned, cyberspace is increasingly being exploited as a weapon in conflicts — by criminals, non-state actors, and even governments. This trend is inimical to ASEAN’s regional ambitions, strengthening the argument for nations in the region to proactively adopt a cyber rules-based order.

What’s more, ASEAN aims to be a zone of peace, freedom and neutrality. This goal emphasises keeping the region free from interference by external powers that could create insecurity.

As ASEAN established this goal in 1971 during the analogue era and Cold War, it is only appropriate that the organisation develop new initiatives to adapt to the digital era and Cold War 2.0.

ASEAN should also promote the Norms Implementation Checklist as a guide for other countries that are its dialogue partners but are embroiled in geopolitical and cyber rivalry (such as China and the United States).

Observers warn that the inability of the regional group to address the Myanmar civil war and rising tensions in the South China Sea, both of which involve cyber activities, is eroding its relevance.

This crisis consequently shapes how some ASEAN members and external powers view ASEAN centrality. It is also among the reasons why non-ASEAN security arrangements — such as the QUADNATO Indo-Pacific Four and Japan-Philippines-US alliance —are establishing cooperative efforts, including on cybersecurity, in the Indo-Pacific.

Taking the lead on cybersecurity, both through the Norms Implementation Checklist and the ASEAN Regional Computer Emergency Response Team, is therefore crucial to the security of people and economies in Southeast Asia.

It could also prevent ASEAN’s centrality in regional security matters from eroding further. But this is contingent on ASEAN nations providing sufficient resources, policy thinking and political will to make these two initiatives deliver results.

Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman is a research fellow (Regional Security Architecture Programme) with the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.

Rajnath Singh, Chinese Defence Minister Meet For First Time After Disengagement Deal

The two sides “agreed to work together towards a roadmap for rebuilding mutual trust and understanding”, the Indian defence ministry said.

New Delhi: Defence minister Rajnath Singh met his Chinese counterpart Admiral Dong Jun in Laos on Wednesday (November 20) for the first time since India and China reached a deal last month ending the border standoff between their troops in eastern Ladakh.

Their meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN defence ministers’ meet in Vientiane came a day after external affairs minister S. Jaishankar met Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and discussed, according to New Delhi, “the next steps in India-China relations”.

Referring to the deadly border clashes between Indian and Chinese soldiers in eastern Ladakh in 2020 as “unfortunate”, the Indian defence ministry said in a press release that Singh called for “reflecting on the lessons learnt” from the clashes as well as taking measures to prevent their recurrence and keep the border peaceful.

Singh underscored and looked forward to “greater trust and confidence-building between the two sides through de-escalation”, the defence ministry said, adding that both sides “agreed to work together towards a roadmap for rebuilding mutual trust and understanding”.

Political relations between New Delhi and Beijing froze after the 2020 clashes, which included a hand-to-hand skirmish that claimed the lives of at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers.

A thaw in ties occurred as India announced on October 21 that it had reached a deal with China on patrolling arrangements between troops on either side at two remaining points of friction in Ladakh.

The deal, which involved disengagement between troops, paved the way for the first bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in five years on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.

During his meeting with Dong, Singh said that “amicable relations” between India and China would have “positive implications for global peace and prosperity”, the defence ministry’s statement said.

It quoted him as saying that as India and China are neighbours, the two sides “need to focus on cooperation rather that conflict”.

Meeting his Chinese opposite number Wang in Brazil, Jaishankar said on Tuesday that he was “glad to note that on the ground, the implementation of that understanding [of October 21] has proceeded as planned”.

This was the first time an Indian official had used the term “understanding” for the October 21 deal. Both the Indian foreign secretary as well as the external affairs ministry’s readout of the Modi-Xi meeting had referred to an “agreement” for disengagement.

USA is Not Just Another Country Swinging Rightwards

A new cold war is building up and adding greater uncertainty and accelerating deglobalisation.

Donald Trump’s big victory has surprised many analysts. He has won in spite of all the negatives. He is against the liberal traditions of USA. He is divisive and anti-workers. He is also against women’s rights over their bodies and believes in creationism and does not believe in climate change. Trump is isolationist, anti-free trade, anti-immigration and has been convicted and faced cases of tax evasion, etc. 

Trump’s lack of faith in democracy is apparent. Without evidence he has repeated ad-nauseam that the 2020 election was stolen. He encouraged his supporters to attack the Congress on January 6, 2021. He tried to manipulate the vote in Georgia in 2020. During the campaign in 2024, he repeatedly said that the election would be stolen. He had even announced that he would not accept the result of the election if he was defeated — what faith in democracy and its institutions.  

Appeal to the voters?

Obviously, there was something else that the voters took into account rather than all the negatives. Namely, he addressed the unspoken and sub conscious fears of many. He played on and heightened the fears that many felt deep down but did not verbalise because of political correctness. His supporters were comforted by his slogans delivered in half sentences. It is easy to widen the divides than to help narrow them. This strategy was used to mobilise votes among the various segments of society — young, old, men, women, urban, rural, coloured, etc.. 

At the latest count, Trump has got 75.9 million votes, compared to 74.2 million in 2020 — hardly a big wave. His victory is because many opposed to him did not vote. The per cent of ‘eligible to vote’ fell compared to 2020 from 65.9% to 62.2%. The turnout of voters declined by 5.5 million while those ‘eligible to vote’ increased by about five million compared to 2020.

Kamala Harris has 72.9 million votes while Joe Biden in 2020 got 81.3 million votes — a big drop. Perhaps many could not accept the idea of a woman president and that too of colour. Further, Harris was unable to convince many voters on crucial issues like economy and West Asia. 

In brief, there was no wave favouring Trump but the Democratic Party failed to get its potential supporters to vote. Harris’s stand on many issues was ambivalent like on continuity with Biden’s policies. Trump’s victory looks big because he won all the swing states and Republicans have got a majority in the Senate and it is likely that they will retain it in the Congress. Thus, Trump will be powerful and will be able to carry through his agenda which neither Barack Obama nor Biden could easily do. 

The ideological swing

Democrats not able to get their voters to come out is typical ‘free rider’ behaviour. The non-voters thought others would vote against the extreme Right and they could maintain their ideological purity by not voting for either of the two candidates. They did not take into account that Trump’s agenda poses a grave danger to the USA and the world. 

Not that Obama or Biden or Harris are leftists. In the US context, they are left of the average Republican and more so compared to Trump. So, in ideological terms the contest was between the Right and the more Right wing. 

In the USA, across the political spectrum, the private sector is celebrated and talk of public sector and provision of more public goods is branded as socialist/communist — almost abusive terms. There is talk of getting the government off the back of the people. Something that Elon Musk is going to accomplish as the new Czar appointed to downsize the government.

Whether the public will benefit from it or not, he would be able to prevent government from breaking the monopolies that his and other IT companies have built. In the USA, consumerism is promoted and celebrated in spite of the talk of climate change. Trump and his supporters do not believe in climate change and will push for greater use of fossil fuels and use of private vehicles which are seen as liberating. 

In the USA, there is growing individualisation and atomisation, promoted by the rising tide of marketisation. Capital is favoured over labour. Unions are seen as a problem and concessions to capital are considered necessary incentives to boost economic growth. Talk of equity and redistribution is derided as socialist. So, benefits of policies largely accrue to capital leading to rising inequality since the mid-1970s. This is aggravated by labour displacing technological advancements and shutting down of traditional manufacturing, especially in the ‘rust belt’. 

Employment has shifted to services and high technology production leaving many workers in the lurch since they are not able to shift to new jobs. Trump has shifted blame for this to globalisation since low and intermediate technology products are coming from China, India, etc. The intense competition among the developing countries has kept prices of goods of daily use low keeping inflation rates low and benefiting the US economy for decades. 

All these trends are a part of the Right wing agenda globally. The rightward drift is visible all over Europe and in large parts of Latin America and Asia. Labour in England which has come to power is not a left of center party. Emmanuel Macron in France is less Right wing than Marine Le Pen. Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany and Giorgia Meloni in Italy are Rightwing. Occasionally, some left of center parties have come to power in some countries, like, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil, but the swing to the Right is unmistakable. Trump’s victory will accelerate this trend as he backs the more Right wing parties globally and pushes for his pro-business policies. He is transactional and will push his agenda. 

Perception battle

Trump has got the vote of the marginalised sections by promising to bring jobs back from China, Mexico and India. He has promised to raise tariffs on imports and especially those from China. He is also likely to use non-tariff barriers to limit imports. This is going to raise prices of imported goods and services and raise the inflation rate in the US — contrary to his promise. But, will protectionism lead to revival of employment in manufacturing in the USA?

Unemployment in the US is currently at a record low. Post pandemic, economy is facing labour shortages. For instance, restaurants have long waiting lines because of shortage of staff. Hourly wages have risen in the US which added to inflationary pressures fueled by the supply shocks post pandemic and due to the Ukraine war. The rise in wages implies that the problem is not inflation. It is the high prices compared to the pre-pandemic era that has created a psychological perception among people that they are worse off. But, that is true only for those who had quit the labour force for any reason and not for the employed.

The Democrats failed in the perception battle to convince citizens that they are better off than pre-pandemic. This is because the citizens’ were looking at prices and not employment, wages or inflation rate. In fact, when Democrats pointed to the economy doing well, they sounded callous and it became counterproductive.

Globalisation and marginalisation

Globalisation has been blamed for the problems of the blue collar workers. This is because it has benefited capital while undermining the interest of labour. Capital has become highly mobile while labour has not. Trillions of dollars move everyday so that capital can shift quickly from one jurisdiction to another. Thus, to attract it, governments have been offering concessions, like, in taxes and labour laws. 

This asymmetry has resulted in the ‘race to the bottom’ and BEPS since December 1991, when the Soviet bloc collapsed. This has reduced governments’ capacity to offer public services with adverse impact on labour — everywhere in the developing and the rich countries. Wages have been squeezed where organised sector workers have been forced to join the unorganised sector at lower wages and reduced the bargaining power of workers to demand higher wages. 

Also read: Why America Is Not As Divided as You Think it Is

The asymmetry has resulted in the cornering of gains of development by capital resulting in a boom in the stock markets and the wealth of the rich. Today, finance dominates, as captured by the slogan ‘Wall Street over the Main Street’. The result is an increase in inequality and consequent slowdown in demand, growth and unemployment.

The US has faced less of marginalisation given its unique position in the world due to dollarisation — people and businesses in other countries accept dollars. So, the US is able to have large deficits both in the budget and in global trade and it gets trillions of dollars of interest free loan, enabling the US to live beyond its means. Its businesses can buy out foreign businesses and freely invest in other countries. The benefit from this accrues largely to capital while labour gets displaced in the low and intermediate technology lines of production due to the trade deficit.

In brief, globalisation has benefited capital against labour — more so in the US. Trump has exploited the dissatisfaction of the displaced labour and presented himself as their champion, promising to boost employment through deglobalisation, by protecting the US economy from global competition. Will this help workers in the US and elsewhere? Not really. 

Accelerated deglobalisation 

Trump ’s slogan Make America Great Again (MAGA) is to be fulfilled by raising tariffs and requiring US capital to return to the US. This is likely to set off competitive tariff increases by other countries to protect their markets. India faced similar pressures during Trump’s first presidency. He has called India ‘tariff king’ and demanded that India lower its duties while it raised duties and stopped preferential treatment. 

A global tariff war will disrupt supplies and production while raising prices — it will be stagflationary. The advantage of cheap labour enjoyed by the developing world would be nullified by the increased tariff. The danger is that the world economy could tip into a recession which would not be short run. World Trade Organisation (WTO) and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are likely to be impacted. 

As tariffs are raised and inflation kicks up, to boost exports, countries will squeeze wages. This will dent demand in the national economy which will run counter to the benefit of lower trade deficit. Nations currently running a trade surplus will be adversely impacted by these two factors. China with its humongous trade surplus would be the worst impacted. Given the size of its economy and its linkages with other economies, this would have a global adverse impact. 

So, Trump’s announced policies would accentuate deglobalisation, inflation, unemployment and have adverse impact on workers. The USA which has been a major beneficiary of globalisation even if its workers were losing out, will benefit from deglobalisation but its workers will again lose out.

Trump is not just pro-Capital but, big capital. He has appointed billionaires Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to downsize government in the name of making it efficient. The idea is to run government like a corporation. This would undermine public accountability and be anti-workers. Trump wants to cut corporate taxes to benefit capital even if that raises the already high budgetary deficit. Even if markets punish USA by downgrading it, the burden would fall on the workers. 

Trump’s support for cryptos which earlier he had called speculative will also help big capital. Bitcoin has breached the record level of $80,000. Cryptos will benefit the rich due to the digital divide. They enable hiding the trail of transactions, etc., enabling illegality to be committed more easily. Once the use of cryptos becomes more generalised in the US, it will proliferate and no country would be able to stop its spread — the genie will be out of the bottle. This is a bit like AI being let loose as certain countries and companies continue to develop it to gain advantage. Unless all agree simultaneously, its development cannot be stopped, even if the consensus is that its development should be stopped till we better understand the risks.

Cryptos will impact the macroeconomic policies of countries. The central banks fear that their role in regulating financial markets would be dented resulting in massive increase in economic instabilities. That can only benefit speculators and not the workers.

Trump threatens to throw out 10 million immigrants. That is going to be logistically difficult and may not happen at this scale. But, it will create huge uncertainty in the US economy and slow down investment. Immigrants perform work that others are not willing to do. So, if any significant displacement of immigrants occurs, it will further throw the US economy into turmoil. It will also lead to additional problems in the countries from where the labour had migrated and where it will return. 

So, the deglobalisation that is likely to follow from the policies that Trump is talking about, would further marginalise the marginalised; they would further lose out due to inflation, inadequacy of employment and uncertainty.

New cold war

Deglobalisation started even before the pandemic but it has gathered pace after the pandemic and more so with the start of the Ukraine war. Two distinct blocs have emerged — the advanced nations and that led by China and Russia. While the cold war of the 1950s was ideological now it is not so since both the blocs are capitalist. It is a fight for leadership and over resources for long term domination. Even if Trump gets the war stopped these factors will persist.

Restrictions on trade, technology and finance are being imposed by the rich countries on the members of the other bloc. So, two circles of trade and finance are beginning to emerge. Some developing world nations are joining the alternative bloc under BRICS and SCO since they worry about any future sanctions by the rich nations. Many central banks are moving from holding dollar reserves to holding other currencies and gold. Trade not denominated in dollars has also grown. This would slowly impact the pre-eminent position of the dollar.

 Trump’s isolationist stand based on ‘America first’, transactional approach and reduced commitment to NATO has aggravated uncertainty among its allies. EU consists of 27 very diverse countries. They find it difficult to take a joint stand and, therefore, are unable to confront the US. This weakens the bloc of the rich nations.

The other bloc has been coming into existence slowly. China is not able to take a firm stand since it has a huge trade surplus with the rich countries. So, in the Ukraine war it has not been able to fully help Russia, fearing sanctions, etc.. But as its trade gets squeezed through the proposed tariffs (like, against electric vehicles) and non-tariff barriers (like, against Huawei 5G) and gets encircled by the military alliances headed by the USA, it will have no option but to more resolutely be a part of the other bloc. 

There will be global environmental implications as the two blocs chart their own paths and conflict grows at various points. The ongoing wars in Palestine and Ukraine and civil wars in various parts of the world are already having an impact. There are likely to be greater sanctions against Iran, North Korea, etc. Further, to lower costs, fossil fuel use and its production using fracking are likely to increase. Environmental clearances are likely to be given more readily. As trade, finance and technology get disrupted, supply bottlenecks will grow thereby disrupting production and causing inflation. 

Finally, as USA turns more insular, like in Trump’s previous presidency, spaces will open up for China to advance. Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initiative and massive foreign exchange reserves have already enabled it to increase its presence in Africa, Latin America, etc.

In brief, there are various strands in the new cold war that are aggravating conflict in the world, making deglobalisation messy and increasing uncertainty. The result will be reduction in growth and acceleration of inflation, both of which will hit workers and the marginalised sections. Only the armament industry will benefit.

 Conclusion

There is no pro-Trump wave. He has received roughly the same number of votes as in 2020. It is the Democrats who could not get their support base to come to vote due to disenchantment. The economy is doing well with record low unemployment, a low inflation rate and higher wages. But people’s focus was on prices which are higher than pre-pandemic. The Democrats lost the perception battle and faced a free rider problem.

 Trump promises to use his trifecta to push for more Right wing policies which will disrupt globalisation and accentuate the trend towards deglobalisation. Globalisation was pro capital and so will be deglobalisation following Trump ’s announcements even though the rhetoric sounds pro workers. A new cold war is building up and adding greater uncertainty and accelerating deglobalisation. The world faces grave uncertainty. Trump’s appointees like Musk are committed to carry forward their boss’s agenda but let us hope they quickly see the contradictions inherent in the agenda and dissuade their boss.

Arun Kumar is retired professor of economics, JNU. He is the author of ‘Indian Economy’s Greatest Crisis: Impact of the Coronavirus and the Road Ahead’.

India, Globally: Modi’s Chance at Winning Over the World, Sri Lanka’s Adani Problem

A fortnightly highlight of how the world is watching our democracy.

The Narendra Modi government frequently posits India as a ‘Vishwaguru’ or world leader. How the world sees India is often lost in this branding exercise.

Outside India, global voices are monitoring and critiquing human rights violations in India and the rise of Hindutva. We present here fortnightly highlights of what a range of actors – from UN experts and civil society groups to international media and parliamentarians of many countries – are saying about the state of India’s democracy.

 Read the fortnightly roundup for November 1-15, 2024.

International media reports

Bloomberg, USA, November 7

Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Dan Strumpf and Ruchi Bhatia write on the implications for India of Donald Trump’s win in the recent US presidential elections. They say Trump’s return gives Narendra Modi “a chance to bolster India’s image with the US and its allies”. With “increased scrutiny” of India for “its role in violence against Sikh activists”, India can “expect a new Trump administration to be less stringent in demanding accountability”. 

Irfan Nooruddin, a professor of Indian politics at Georgetown University, says India holds “long-term value as a strategic partner” given Trump’s continued view of China “as the greatest geopolitical challenge”. However, Milan Vaishnav, Director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, cautions that questions of “trade, tariffs and market access” remain. With the US currently India’s biggest trade partner, increased tariffs promised by Trump could hit India’s economy. Trump’s “protectionist tendencies” may adversely impact cooperation on defence and critical technologies. His push for tighter immigration policies “could make life difficult for the Indians”.

Bloomberg, USA, November 7

Andy Mukherjee comparatively analyses India and China’s separate paths to economic growth and globalisation beyond the conventional lens of population policies and political structures. Situating the central question why “China’s per capita income is now more than double India’s”, he finds the answer lies in “sharp” differences in how the two nations “embraced modern education”.  Mukherjee draws from a paper by Nitin Kumar Bharti and Li Yang (scholars at the Paris School of Economics’ World Inequality Lab) entitled The Making of China and India in 21st Century. It relies on documentation “going back to 1900 to make a database of who studied what in the two countries, for how long, and what was taught to them”.  While India led in the 20th century by enabling a student population “eight times bigger than China”, China has outpaced India in the present by sending “a far bigger share” of its “university-age cohort” to higher education than India. Mukherjee argues that the relative strengths of China’s education system which have influenced greater economic productivity include a “bottom up” strategy which reduces early years school drop-outs and leads to more graduates and better performance in higher education, and the Chinese focus on engineering and vocational graduates over “humanities”.  

The Guardian, UK, November 11

In the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory, Richard Seymour analyses why “far-right leaders are winning across the globe”- from the US to Hungary, Italy, the Philippines, Argentina, the Netherlands, Israel and India. Seymour repeatedly cites Narendra Modi’s rise in India as a key example within his wider analysis. His main argument is that votes for the far-right cannot only be explained by people’s frustrations with economic issues. He recalls that “after average consumer expenditure fell, Modi was re-elected in 2019 with a 6% swing”.  For Seymour the appeal of the right-wing lies elsewhere – in replacing “real disasters with imaginary disasters”. A telling example in his words is “instead of confronting systems, they give you enemies you can kill”. A key takeaway for Seymour is that “far from being discredited by outbursts of collective violence, the new far right is galvanised by it”. He points out that Modi’s “rise to power began with an anti-Muslim pogrom” in Gujarat; Delhi experienced a “pogrom” against Muslims in 2020, and Trump’s 2020 campaign was “electrified by vigilante violence”.    

The Island, Sri Lanka, November 13

Sasanka Perera writes on the “intrigue and controversy surrounding the operations of India’s Adani Green Energy” in Sri Lanka, in the context of a power purchase deal currently under litigation in the Sri Lankan Supreme Court. The Adani power project is being challenged for violating fundamental rights and for controversies around how the project was approved. Perera says the project needs to be reconsidered also “in light of the global evidence against the Adani Group in general”, citing a long list of malpractices by Adani Group companies.

Perera reminds of a recent lawsuit in Kenya in which the High Court suspended a US $ 736 million agreement between the state-owned Kenya Electrical Transmission Company and Adani Energy Solutions after hearing the petitioner’s arguments that the deal was a “constitutional scam” and “tainted with secrecy”. He warns the new government of Sri Lanka to have the “moral and political strength” to reconsider a project that came “through an entire field of corruption both locally and elsewhere”.

Perera underlines that the Indian government may have had “backdoor” involvement as the project was offered to Sri Lanka “based on a request from Indian PM Narendra Modi to former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa.”  

CBC, Canada, November 13

Evan Dyer reports that Sunny Sidhu, a superintendent in the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), has been cleared of allegations aired by Indian government and media sources of “terrorism” and involvement in “Sikh separatist militancy”. After a year-long investigation into Sidhu by the CBSA itself, Luke Reimer (CBSA spokesperson) told CBC News that they have “no evidence to support the allegations made in the articles against our employee Mr. Sidhu”. In the midst of this, Sidhu received an “avalanche of threats” on social media, causing him to relocate with his family. Richard Fadden, former Director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) said “India has a long history of making allegations without providing evidence”. The first CSIS Director to go public with allegations of foreign interference in Canada, Fadden also noted that “the scope of activities that we would put under foreign interference continues to broaden”. He suggested that these could include false allegations intended to sow suspicion and discord.

Parliamentarians and public officials advocate

In a press conference in Canberra on November 5 with Indian external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar while he was on a visit, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong responded to questions about Canada’s allegations regarding India’s targeting of Sikh activists. Wong made clear that Australia “respects Canada’s judicial process”.  She underlined that Australia takes a “principled position” on “rule of law” and the “sovereignty of all countries”.  Wong assured Australia’s Sikh community that they have a “right to be safe and respected”.  

Experts say

The Congressional Research Service, a research institute of the United States Congress which assists congressional committees and Members of Congress, published a report entitled “India: Religious Freedom Issues”, dated November 13. Authored by K. Alan Kronstadt, a specialist in South Asian affairs, the report covers a wide range of “areas of religiously motivated repression and violence” in India, including “anti-conversion laws, cow protection vigilantism, regional communal violence” and others. Notably, the Washington DC-based Hindu American Foundation (HAF) is described as part of a “Hindu nationalist ecosystem in the US” seeking to exert influence on US government officials, scholars and thinktanks. Kronstadt references sources saying that while HAF presents itself “as a nonpartisan, non-ideological group”, its critics see it as “a key node in the global Hindu supremacist (or Hindutva) movement”. The report concludes with some concrete actions for Congress to consider, including increased oversight of US foreign assistance to India “particularly in light of Indian restrictions” on NGOs, more funding to support marginalised communities, and to engage with the Indian government to reduce the use of terrorism and other laws “against human rights activists, journalists and religious minorities”. 

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) expressed grave concern over the “relentless targeting” of journalist Rana Ayyub in a statement issued on November 8. CPJ describes that Ayyub, a global opinion writer at the Washington Post, was “followed and repeatedly questioned” by local security personnel while she was on a reporting trip in Manipur in early October. The officers wanted to know who she was meeting and what she was reporting. They said they followed her for “her safety” ordered by a “higher office”. Ayyub told CPJ a “right-wing account” shared her number on X on November 8, after which she received “at least 200 phone and video calls and explicit WhatsApp messages throughout the night”. CPJ’s Asia Program Coordinator Beh Lih noted that “using surveillance and intimidation to deter journalists from reporting effectively has no place in a country that prides itself on being the mother of democracy.”

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in its Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2024 predicts that “by 2070, climate change under a high end emissions scenario could cause a total loss of 16.9% of GDP across the Asia and Pacific region”.  For India, the predicted decline is 24.7%, lower only than Bangladesh, Vietnam and Indonesia.  Likely factors that may cause loss of GDP include declined labour productivity, greater flooding, and increased expenditure on cooling.  On each count, the predictions for India are comparatively worse. While “the GDP loss in 2070 from reduced labour productivity” because of the heat waves is “4.9% for the region”, the figure for India – one of the “most impacted locations” – is 11.6%. On “increased river-based flooding”, the average predicted loss is 2.2% of GDP while for India, its “about 4% of GDP”.  Cooling related demands “may reduce regional GDP by 3.3 per cent, but for India, this figure could reach 5.1 per cent”. The report also notes that alongside such vulnerabilities, “the region includes three of the top 10 GHG-emitting economies globally” – China, Indonesia, and India.

Hafsa Kanjwal, an associate professor of South Asian history in the US, situates India’s ongoing “subjugation” of Kashmir in the context of “Third World Imperialism” in a recent essay. She argues that forms of colonialism in the Global South remain unacknowledged. She further points to how “porous” the “boundary between colonialism and postcolonialism” is in the way post-colonial states like India continue to advance their own “settler-colonial ambitions”. Kanjwal argues that “Kashmir is India’s colony” and like a colonial force, India has “sought to rule over Kashmir through subjugating its people and trampling their rights”. Made sharper by the revocation of Kashmir’s semi-autonomy in August 2019, key features of India’s contemporary colonisation in Kashmir include internet shutdowns (among the highest in the world), surveillance technology, displacement of indigenous communities, and the criminalisation of “all forms of dissent”. Kanjwal warns that “climate disaster” may accelerate in Kashmir “exacerbated by decades of military occupation” and companies that “do not adhere to environmental regulations” getting contracts to mine for minerals. 

Indian diaspora and civil society groups

Over 20 US-based organisations have urged the US government to “impose immediate and comprehensive travel and financial sanctions on India’s Home Minister, Amit Shah and National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval” for their role in “assassination operations” in Canada and the US respectively. In a press release dated November 1, the Indian American Muslim Council (IAMC), Sikh Coalition, New York State Council of Churches, Hindus for Human Rights, and others stated they made this demand in a letter to the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the US Secretary of Commerce Janet Yellen. Deepali Gill, Federal Policy Manager at Sikh Coalition noted that such sanctions would ensure “not just accountability” but “deterrence” against violations of “Sikhs’ civil rights and U.S. sovereignty.” IAMC Executive Director Rasheed Ahmed said that “Amit Shah and Ajit Doval’s orchestration of violence” constitutes clear grounds for sanction under the Global Magnitsky Act.” Under the Global Magnitsky Act, the US can impose sanctions against any foreign person for human rights violations including “extrajudicial killings” targeting those who seek “to  defend”  internationally recognized “human rights and freedoms”.

Tech Justice Law Project, an international initiative which advocates for “better, safer, and accountable online spaces” along with the Indian American Muslim Council, India Civil Watch International, Hindus for Human Rights and Dalit Solidarity Forum released a report in the run-up to Jharkhand’s state elections in November. Entitled “Jharkhand’s Shadow Politics: How Meta Permits, Profits From, and Promotes Shadow Political Advertisements”, the report finds that a “huge” shadow network, boosted by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is pushing out political ads on Meta. The report points out that while the official BJP pages highlighted issues related to “government programs and electoral promises”, shadow accounts posted “communally divisive content and attack ads”, including “dehumanizing images of the Chief Minister of Jharkhand, Hemant Soren, depicted with horns”. Such ads are “in violation of India’s electoral laws and Meta’s own community guidelines”. The research “identified at least 87 such pages” which together have spent “almost the same as the BJP Jharkhand account” but received “almost quadruple the amount of impressions”. Meta claims to have a strict verification process, but the report finds that the information for these shadow pages “appears to be junk”.

Read the previous roundup here

Indian Aid ‘an Important Step to Undermine All Israeli Attempts to Eliminate UNRWA’: Palestine Embassy

The Israeli parliament passed two bills last month banning the UNRWA from Israeli territory.

New Delhi: The Palestinian embassy to India has thanked New Delhi for its contribution of US $ 2.5 million to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, noting that the move is an important step to fight Israel’s attempts to ban the primary relief agency in the region.

The Israeli parliament passed two bills last month banning the UNRWA from Israeli territory. Israel’s yearlong strikes on Gaza have been compared to a genocide and has led to the death of over 44,000 people officially, many of them children.

In a press release on November 19, the Palestinian charge’ d’affaires to New Delhi, Abed Elrazeg Abu Jazer expressed “sincere gratitude and appreciation” for the Indian government, and said, “We believe that this Indian contribution is a clear confirmation of its continued support to UNRWA services as the founding mandated in 1949.”

The $ 2.5 million is half of India’s promised annual contribution of $ 5 million for 2024-25.

This September, India notably abstained from voting in a widely supported United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolution calling for an end to Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the West Bank within a year.

Abu Jazer added: “We consider that this financial contribution is an important step to undermine all Israeli attempts to eliminate UNRWA and ban its activity in the Palestinian territories.”

The release came on the day when leaders of the G20 countries, in Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro, called for a “comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza in line with UN Security Council Resolution n. 2735 and in Lebanon that enables citizens to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Blue Line”.

It also called for removing roadblocks to delivering humanitarian aid.

A report on The Guardian on the same day (November 19) said that Norway will ask the International Court of Justice for an advisory opinion condemning Israel for ceasing cooperation with the UNRWA.

The Palestinian release said that Palestinian people, “who have real historical ties with India, appreciate the Indian contribution to UNRWA and look forward to continued Indian support at all political and material levels until the realization of their aspirations for freedom, independence, and the establishment of their independent state.”

G20 Leaders Soften Stance on Ukraine as Rio Declaration Drops Modi’s ‘War’ Remark

There was also no language condemning nuclear threats or demanding a cessation of attacks on essential energy infrastructure.

New Delhi: Within a year, the leaders of the world’s 20 major economies have further softened their concerns about the Ukraine war, with the Rio Declaration offering only general platitudes about the need to end the conflict.

As in Delhi, the G20 declaration in Rio was released on the first day of the summit after all countries reached a consensus on the language.

In September 2023, negotiators worked until the last moment on the language regarding the Ukraine war, with the final declaration including seven paragraphs on the conflict.

This time, however, there was only one paragraph addressing the Ukraine war, which referenced “recalling our discussions in New Delhi” to echo language about “human suffering” and the “negative” impacts on the global economy and food security.

“We welcome all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just and durable peace, upholding all the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter for the promotion of peaceful, friendly, and good neighborly relations among nations,” stated the Rio Declaration.

Indian officials had previously highlighted the Delhi Declaration featuring the phrase “Today’s era must not be of war”, spoken by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Russian President Vladimir Putin, as a sign of respect garnered by India globally.

That phrase is no longer present in the 2024 Leaders’ Declaration.

There was also no language condemning nuclear threats or demanding a cessation of attacks on essential energy infrastructure.

Also read | G20 Declaration: As the West Scrambles to Justify ‘Softened’ Language on Ukraine War, Russia Exults

“The language is not strong enough But nobody wanted to push too far, otherwise it would have been a fight and there would be no statement,” an European diplomat told the Financial Times.

Incidentally, the Delhi Declaration was also criticised for being more lenient on Russia compared to the 2022 Bali joint statement, where “most members” had strongly deplored “the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and demanded its complete and unconditional withdrawal from Ukrainian territory.”

It had also stated that “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine”.

In the Rio document, there was a longer paragraph on the Gaza war, which called for a “comprehensive ceasefire in Gaza in line with UN Security Council Resolution n. 2735 and in Lebanon that enables citizens to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Blue Line”.

It also called for removing roadblocks to delivering humanitarian aid.

“While expressing our deep concern about the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and the escalation in Lebanon, we emphasise the urgent need to expand the flow of humanitarian assistance and to reinforce the protection of civilians and demand the lifting of all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale,” said the G20 declaration.

The New York Times recently reported that Israel had significantly reduced the flow of food and supplies to Gaza over the past month, despite warnings from the US administration to Tel Aviv to increase aid or risk a potential cutoff in military assistance.

Endorsing Palestine’s right to self-determination, the G20 declaration reiterated its “unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-State solution where Israel and a Palestinian State live side by side in peace within secure and recognised borders, consistent with international law and relevant UN resolutions.”