Author: Aman

RLD-BJP Alliance: What Does the Changed Political Equations Now Hold for Western Uttar Pradesh?

Jayant Choudhary’s decision to join the NDA alliance is seen as a notable advantage for the RLD, signalling the possibility of the party securing a Lok Sabha seat for the first time in a decade.

Muzaffarnagar: A motorcycle rally led by the BJP passes through sugarcane fields in Budhana, Muzaffarnagar. The bikes are decorated with flags of the saffron party while a song plays in the background:

‘Mazdoor kisan ke haq mein ye alakh jagai re
RLD aayi re, RLD aayi re’

‘(This awakening is happening in support of labourers and farmers, RLD [Rashtriya Lok Dal] has come, RLD has come).’

These sugarcane plots belong to Shobhan Singh, 80 who has seen the influence of the former prime minister Chaudhary Charan Singh in Uttar Pradesh politics. A chaupal has been set up, at the edge of the fields, where he sits with a hookah.

Sharing his thoughts, Shobhan says, “Chaudhary Sahib deserved the Bharat Ratna but no past prime minister thought of honouring him in this manner. Now it is natural for Chaudhary Sahib’s grandson Jayant to lean towards the BJP.”

The villagers nod in agreement, puffing on their hookahs, wondering aloud farmer Shivam Choudhary says, “Dadda, do you think that Bharat Ratna alone made Jayant Choudhary distance himself from the INDIA Alliance?”

RLD’s prospects

RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary who is known for his staunch opposition to the BJP truly shocked everyone by parting ways with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and switching loyalties to the NDA within hours of Bharat Ratna award announcement for Chaudhary Charan Singh on February 9.

Next day, while speaking in the Rajya Sabha a turncoat Jayant said aloud, “Having been in the opposition for 10 years, I see shades of Chaudhary Charan Singh’s ideology in the present government’s working style.”

A towering figure in farmer politics, Chaudhary Charan Singh, had devised a caste coalition formula then popularly known ‘MAJGAR’ (Muslim, Ahir, Jat, Gujjar, and Rajput communities) which contributed significantly to his success in the western part of Uttar Pradesh.

Also read: For ‘Bharat Ratna’ Chaudhary Charan Singh, Politics Meant the Art of the Possible

“Chaudhary Charan Singh was a grassroots leader, representing farmers of all castes. However, after his passing away, the party’s appeal diminished, narrowing down to primarily representing the Jat community,” says senior journalist Brijesh Shukla. “The party’s downfall can be attributed to its tendency to align with larger parties like the BJP and Congress, rather than focusing on strengthening its own foundation.”

After the 2014 elections, even the Jat support base of the RLD began to dwindle particularly on account of the divide between Muslims and Jats essentially following the infamous 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots which left more than 65 people dead and thousands displaced.

According to CSDS post-poll studies on the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP garnered 77% of the Jat votes, a stark increase from the 7% it received in the 2012 Assembly elections. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, there was a considerable anticipation as an ambitious grand alliance of the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and RLD was formed.

With Muslims, Jats and Dalits comprising approximately 60% of the voting population in Western Uttar Pradesh, the RLD harboured high hopes. However, when the results were announced, it sent shockwaves as both Ajit Singh and Jayant Chaudhary lost their seats once again, with the RLD failing to even open its account and the BJP took away 91% of the Jat vote share.

The 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election, unfolded against the backdrop of massive farmer protests in the western region that had been ongoing for months. The RLD then in alliance with the SP hoped to bridge the gap between Muslims and Jats. However, the results remained shocking for RLD which failed to win more than 8 of the 33 seats it contested.

Brijesh Shukla says, “When the RLD failed to secure victory despite being part of the grand alliance in 2019 or amidst extensive farmer protests in 2022, when the odds were stacked against the BJP, it’s difficult to see how they could emerge victorious in 2024. Jayant Chaudhary was already fighting a losing battle.”

Jayant Choudhary’s decision to join the NDA alliance is seen as a notable advantage for the RLD, signalling the possibility of the party securing a Lok Sabha seat for the first time in a decade.

BJP’s prospect

In the village of Firozpur Bangar in Muzaffarnagar, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath is seen engaging with villagers during a chaupal session, where he acquaints them with various beneficiary schemes initiated by the central and state governments. Additionally, the chief minister launches the BJP’s Gram Parikrama Yatra in the state, slated to cover 50,000 villages across Uttar Pradesh. Following the chaupal, while addressing villagers in a rally, the chief minister says, “Farmers have always greeted each other with ‘Ram Ram,’ ‘Ram Ram Sa,’ or ‘Ram Ramji’. With the divine arrival of Lord Ram on one hand and the recognition of the farmer’s leader, Chaudhary Charan Singh, with the Bharat Ratna on the other, I urge our farmers to convey their felicitations to Prime Minister Modi.”

The chief minister’s speech sheds light on the BJP’s strategy in the region, highlighting four major issues the party is focusing in Western Uttar Pradesh: hindutva, utilising Chaudhary Charan Singh’s legacy to woo Jayant and farmers, beneficiary schemes, and capitalising on Modi’s popularity.

Shamshad Khan, psephologist and managing director of the PEACS news service says, “Chaudhary Charan Singh commands immense respect in the region. By awarding him the Bharat Ratna, the BJP aims to accomplish two objectives: building goodwill among farmers and drawing RLD into their camp, thereby dealing a significant psychological blow to the INDIA alliance and SP.”

Also read: Uttar Pradesh’s Economy: Down the Rabbit Hole and Beyond

Additionally the BJP is also working to get its caste equation right in the region. Laxmi Kant Bajpai, BJP Rajya Sabha MP from Meerut, says, “Not only Jats, but we have also actively connected with numerically smaller communities in the region, such as Tyagis, Sainis, Gujjars, Lohaars, Kahaars, and Kanchis. Moreover, our various beneficiary schemes have significantly benefited these groups, and we expect even stronger support from them in the upcoming election.”

With the BSP steadily losing its hold over its Dalit base, all political rivals are out to grab whatever they can out of the Dalit vote. And BJP appears to be way ahead of others, having already secured a substantial portion of Dalit voters from the BSP, the party is continuing its efforts to expand its support.

BJP leader Asim Arun during a campaign trail. Photo: X/@asim_arun

“The BJP has made substantial efforts toward the upliftment of SC and ST communities. Not only have our welfare schemes greatly benefited these communities but the BJP has also paid homage to icons like Baba Saheb Bhimrao Ambedkar and Birsa Munda, instilling confidence that Modi ji’s leadership will continue to empower every downtrodden,” says Asim Arun, former police commissioner of Kanpur and now minister of social welfare in the Uttar Pradesh government.

SP’s prospects

Barely 21 days prior to the Bharat Ratna announcement to Chaudhary Charan Singh, Akhilesh Yadav posted a picture on X (formerly called Twitter) with Jayant Chaudhary at his residence saying, “Congratulations to everyone on the RLD-SP alliance. Let’s unite for victory.”

The RLD and SP have been longstanding allies in the past few elections. This departure comes as a substantial blow to the SP as the party lacks its own social base in the region. The SP traditionally performs well in areas with a substantial Muslim and Yadav presence since these communities form their primary support base.

The absence of significant Yadav presence in the west Uttar Pradesh region, however, poses a challenge for the SP. With Jayant’s departure, the party now needs to devise a new social arithmetic or identify a potential game-changer issue to maintain its standing.

Shamshad Khan says, “The problem with the SP is that they were too dependent on Jayant and over the years because of the alliance they didn’t develop their own leaders and cadre in the region.”

Though the SP is confident about countering the BJP-RLD alliance, Atul Pradhan, the party’s MLA from Sardhana, Meerut says, “People in the villages are unhappy about RLD leaving the alliance. Our focus on issues such as protecting the Constitution, speaking out against the harassment of protesting farmers and ensuring MSP is resonating strongly among the masses.”

Atul Pradhan addressing a gathering. Photo: Atul Pradhan/Instagram

Atul Pradhan presents a new electoral strategy, banking on the support from Dalit voters. He says, “A significant shift is expected in west Uttar Pradesh among the Dalit voters. Recent by-polls in Mainpuri, Rampur, and Ghosi saw strong support from the scheduled caste voters for the SP and this trend will continue.”

BSP’s prospects

Mayawati’s BSP, once a formidable force in the western region, has seen a decline in its influence. The factors contributing to BSP’s historical strength in Western Uttar Pradesh included the significant presence of Dalits, particularly Jatavs, a sub-caste to which Mayawati belongs, alongside support from Muslims who viewed the BSP-Jatav combination as a winning formula. Additionally, BSP had an array of influential leaders and a motivated cadre.

However, political commentator Ajmal Rahi, who also runs an organisation for communal harmony in Muzaffarnagar, highlights the BSP’s current situation, “The BSP is almost finished in the region; they lack major issues, their cadres have weakened, and influential leaders have left the party.”

Some BSP leaders see Jayant’s departure from the SP alliance as an opportunity to regain Muslim support by positioning BSP as the main alternative to the BJP. With BSP’s Jatav base remaining strong, the alliance of Jatav and Muslim voters could pose a challenge to the BJP.

Rahi refutes and says, “When alliance of SP and Congress is on one side, there is no chance Muslims will vote for Mayawati. Muslims have stopped trusting Mayawati from past few elections and have understood that BSP has surrendered in front of BJP.”

Aman is an independent journalist.

How a Small Town in UP Is Bridging Cultures Through Ramleela

For the past 51 years, the Ramleela in Bakshi Ka Talab has been breaking religious barriers, with Muslim artists playing the role of Lord Rama, Laxman, Sita, Janak, Dasharath, and many others.

In Bakshi Ka Talab, a small town 30 kilometres away from Lucknow, the call of azaan (an Islamic call to prayer) echoes through the air. It is time for namaz, and Salman Khan bows down with devotion. He completes his prayer and dons his cap.

Interestingly, the adjacent area is abuzz with the rehearsal for Ramleela, where everyone is awaiting Khan’s arrival. Khan plays the role of Lord Rama. He takes the stage to act in a scene where he engages in a conversation with Lord Parashuram. In his opening dialogue, he says, “Shiv dhanush todne wala bhi, Koi Shiv pyaara hi hoga, Jisne aisa apraadh kiya, Wo daas tumhara hi hoga (The one who broke Lord Shiva’s bow, must be someone beloved to Shiva; and for doing such a thing, that devotee must be yours.)

For the past 51 years, the Ramleela in Bakshi Ka Talab has been breaking religious barriers, with Khan playing the role of Lord Rama.

This tradition was started in 1972 by the then gram pradhan, Maikulal Yadav, and his friend, Muzaffar Hussain.

In this Ramleela, Muslims perform various roles such as Lord Rama, Laxman, Sita, Janak, Dasharath, and many others. Just as Khan portrays the character of Lord Ram, Suhail Khan takes on the role of Laxman, while Farhan Ali portrays Sita. Bharat is played by Suhel Khan, and Sher Khan embodies the character of Janak. Even the role of young Ram is portrayed by Abdul Hasan.

Salman Khan has been part of this Ramleela for the last 12 years. And it has been seven years since he has been performing on stage as Lord Rama.

“When I wear the crown and dress as the king of Ayodhya, an aura of devotion envelops the scene. People feel that Lord Rama is physically present before them. Men, women, and children shower flowers and seek blessings by touching my feet. During these moments, people seem to forget my real identity and perceive me as Lord Rama. Experiencing this atmosphere fills me with a profound sense of divine happiness and makes me feel as if I have embodied Lord Shri Ram, a rare feeling, I may not experience elsewhere.”

“If people in a small town like Bakshi ka Talab can coexist with brotherhood and solidarity, why do some individuals attempt to spread hatred across the entire country,“ says Salman Khan, who is a gym trainer.

Twenty-year old Sahil Khan, a student, who plays the role of Laxman, joined the Ramleela when he was nine years old. “When I was a child, this tradition piqued my curiosity. Initially, I had started to play the roles of Bharat, Shatrughan, etc., but as time passed, I started getting more important roles, and eventually got to play the role of Laxman.”

Though he plays the role of Laxman, Sahil holds Lord Ram in unparalleled esteem. “Lord Ram was ‘Maryada Puroshottam’ (embodiment of the ideal man), who did not bat an eyelid before setting off on his 14-year exile in the forest, in pursuance of his father Dasharath’s wish,” he says.

From Right to left – Suhail Khan as Lakshman, Salman Khan as Lord Ram, Sujeet Yadav as Suryadev and Ajay Maurya (side artist). Photo: Bakshi ka Talab Ramleela Samiti

Salman and Sahil together create an atmosphere that unites people in devotion, transcending religious barriers. “Religious tensions between Hindus and Muslims are increasing in the country, but when I am in Bakshi Ka Talab, none of that hatred is perceptible. My family and the audience have been nothing but supportive, showering all their praise and encouragement,” says Sahil Khan.

Thousands of people gather to witness this unique Ramleela. Sanjeev Shukla, 55, a resident of Bakshi Ka Talab, says, “When I was a child, my father used to bring me to watch Ramleela. Now I bring my son to watch it. We feel a great sense of joy that our god is being respected and played by the people from other faiths also.”

The director of this Ramleela is Mohammad Sabir Khan. He has been associated with it in various capacities for 49 years. He started directing Ramleela in 1990. “As a child, I used to watch Ramleela and longed to be part of it. Then I began this journey with the role of Jatayu and gradually started directing it.”

Mohammad Sabir Khan. Photo: Aman Khan

As Sabir Khan shares insights with this scribe, rehearsals are underway. He advises Salman Khan that his facial expressions should reflect Lord Ram’s calm demeanor.

“There was just one occasion when I encountered some objection  to my participation in Ramleela. That was when I got married, and my in-laws raised concerns. I invited them to see our Ramleela first hand, and that became a turning point for them as they watched thousands of people applauding and praising my performance,” he says.

This Ramleela has seen many interesting phases.

Videsh Pal Yadav, son of Maikulal Yadav, who was the founder member of Ramleela organising committee, shares an interesting anecdote. “Once, Ramzaan (the holy month of fasting for Muslims) and Navratra (a Hindu festival) had coincided. We were worried about how we would manage Ramleela because most of our Muslim artists would be observing Roza (fasting),” he recounts.

He said that none of them allowed their fasting to disrupt the smooth flow of the rehearsals.

He added, “On the final day, they [the artists] broke their fast (Iftaar) on the stage itself, just before starting the programme to ensure that there was no interruption in the performance.”

An old connection

In Lucknow, the tradition of a Muslim connection with Ramleela has deep roots. In the 1780s, Lucknow’s fourth nawab, Asaf-ud-Daula, donated 6 acres of land to establish a Ramleela ground in the Aishbagh locality, where the annual Ramleela has been held ever since.

According to Aditya Dwivedi, secretary of the Aishbagh Ramleela Samiti, “This is one of the most renowned Ramleela in India. It was started by Goswami Tulsidas in the 16th century. In the beginning, Sadhus used to perform Ramleela here. However, during the era of the Nawabs, many Nawabs began attending Ramleela, and they were so fond of it that they used to take care of the expenses.”

Even today, many Muslims actively participate in the Aishbagh Ramleela.

Aishbagh Ramleela. Photo: Aman Khan

Syed Shamshur Rahman Naved has been the dance director of the Aishbagh Ramleela since 2006. He is responsible for choreographing the dance sequences throughout the 10-day-long ritual.

During a significant scene portraying the marriage of Lord Ram and Sita, an atmosphere of joy prevails as Sita holds the varmala (garland). In the background, the song ‘Shri Raghubar Komal Kamal Nayan Ko, Pehnaao Jaimaala‘ plays, and as Sita advances with the garland, everyone joins in the celebratory dance. Naved has played a crucial role in teaching the dance steps for this enchanting sequence.

Aishbagh Ramleela. Photo: Aman Khan

Syed Shamshur Rahman Naved giving directions to the Ramleela artists. Photo: Aman Khan

“My Muslim identity has never been an obstacle. The Ramleela Samiti has always been supportive, even in the face of occasional criticism from some who question a Muslim’s participation in a stage performance of a Hindu mythological epic. But such criticism has never posed any hurdle.”

Naved takes pride in his association with the Ramleela performance. “Whenever I step onto any stage, there’s a special announcement for me, and that is a moment of great pride,” he says.

Not only in Lucknow but in Inhauna, a small town in Lucknow’s neighbouring Raebareli district, a Muslim family has been hosting a Ramleela and Dussehra fair for the past 156 years. In 1867, the local talukdar, Chaudhary Sharfuddin, started a Dussehra fair with Ramleela as its central attraction. Today, the sixth generation of Sharfuddin continues the legacy, established by their ancestors. The fair is organised under the patronage of Sharfuddin’s descendants, Chaudhary Wahaj Akhtar and Chaudhary Mohd Shuja.

Inhauna Ramleela. Photo: Chaudhary Mohd Shuja

While members of the Chaudhary family have dispersed across the globe, residing in different parts from Dubai to Mumbai, Delhi to Lucknow, when it comes to Dussehra, they all reunite in Inhauna, regardless of their locations, to celebrate and manage the Dussehra fair and Ramleela, every year.

Inhauna Ramleela. Photo: Aman Khan

“The response to the Dussehra fair is tremendous; it is eagerly awaited, and people count the days throughout the year. Both Hindu and Muslim families attend the fair in large numbers. Even Muslim women, wearing burqas, attend our Ramleela with their families,” says Chaudhary Mohd Shuja, a current scion of this family.

“The idea of organising this fair and Ramleela is nothing extraordinary. It comes naturally to us and is an integral part of our family tradition which is part of the unique ‘Ganga-Jamuni’ culture of this Avadh region. Even this year’s Ramleela has eight of the 15 roles being played by Muslims on stage,” says Mohd Shuja.

How Strong is Akhilesh Yadav’s New Electoral Formula?

Akhilesh Yadav may have lost four consecutive elections in UP since 2014, but he is strongly of the view that his new PDA formula can transform his party’s fortunes.

Chalking out a new strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Samajwadi Party (SP) national president Akhilesh Yadav is all set to tap into three groups of voters whom he has together classified as PDA: pichde (backward), Dalit and alpsankhyak (minority)

Akhilesh considers this a formidable combination to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance – rechristened as New India, Developed Nation, Aspiration of People of India (NDA) – at the crucial general election in 2024.

Political analysts believe that UP has 40-45% OBC, 20% Dalits and 19% Muslim voters accounting for around 78% of all voters in the state. Akhilesh’s target is to wean away a large chunk of this group to his fold.

He may have lost four consecutive elections in UP since 2014, yet he is strongly of the view that his new PDA formula can transform his party’s fortunes.

Notwithstanding his hopes, expectations and calculations, Akhilesh’s strategy appears to be facing some major challenges on the ground.

P of PDA means Other Backward Caste votes

According to political analysts, of the total OBC voters in UP, the Yadav community accounts for the majority with a 9% vote share. They are traditional voters of SP.

A post-poll study conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) said that 83% of Yadavs voted for the SP in the 2022 assembly elections. However, Akhilesh has struggled to secure the remaining 35% of the vote of non-Yadav OBC voters who have shifted to the BJP since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

His father and SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav had worked diligently to win over a large number of non-Yadav OBC voters by building up leaders like Beni Prasad Verma, Phoolan Devi and Raghuraj Shakya, among others. However, Akhilesh has not been able to carry forward that legacy effectively, leading to a decline in the SP’s non-Yadav OBC vote bank. 

In preparation for the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh Yadav did form alliances with various regional outfits representing these castes, resulting in a significant increase in the SP’s vote share from 21% in 2017 to 35% in 2022. But this failed to pay the desired dividends. However, now the challenge he faces is in maintaining the unity of the coalition of small parties.

Raj Pal Kashyap, state president of SP’s Backward Cell says, “We have already commenced yatras (rallies) for the OBC’s and have conducted seminars on caste census and are conducting 4 programs every day.”

Rajpal Kashyap addressing a gathering in Lucknow. Photo: Twitter/Pal Kashyap

Rajbhars

Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA formula suffered a significant blow when Om Prakash Rajbhar, the president of the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), declared his decision to join the NDA at a press conference in Lucknow on July 16th. Rajbhar attacked SP and said “Akhilesh Yadav intends to turn OBC’s into mere loaders instead of leaders, while the BJP is actively promoting leaders from OBC communities.”

The Rajbhars, said to account for 4% of the state population, are largely spread across Eastern UP and play a major role in the electoral politics of the state . They are largely represented by the SBSP.

Om Prakash Rajbhar with Union home minister Amit Shah. Photo: Twitter/@oprajbhar

In the 2017 assembly elections, Om Prakash Rajbhar was in alliance with the NDA and also became a minister in the Yogi Adityanath government. However, a political opportunist that he is, he switched loyalties to the SP just before the 2022 state assembly elections. 

His significance can be gauged from the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent him a congratulatory message on the wedding of his son in June last year. The message came in handy for Rajbhar to claim his clout over the ruling dispensation.

However, Raj Pal Kashyap believes that Om Prakash Rajbhar leaving the SP alliance will not have a substantial impact. He says, “Om Prakash Rajbhar’s absence will not harm us. We have influential Rajbhar leaders within our own ranks, such as Ram Achal Rajbhar and Sukhdeo Rajbhar’s son.”

Also read: What Does Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Return to NDA Mean for UP Politics?

Kurmi vote

Kurmi voters are estimated to constitute around 5% of the state’s population. Significantly, about 15% of these are concentrated in Eastern UP. According to the post-poll study conducted by CSDS, NDA received 66% of Kurmi and Koeri votes in the 2022 assembly elections.

In UP, Sone Lal Patel was an influential Kurmi leader who formed his own party. However, after his demise, his party split into two factions – one under Sone Lal Patel’s daughter Anupriya Patel which is allied with BJP; and the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) led by Sonelal Patel’s other daughter Pallavi Patel, allied with the SP.

Akhilesh Yadav with Krishna Patel paying tribute to Sone Lal Patel on his birth anniversary. Photo: SP Office

SP allocated six seats to the Apna Dal(K) for the 2022 assembly elections. Pallavi Patel contested on the SP ticket and defeated Keshav Prasad Maurya, who currently serves as the deputy chief minister in the Adityanath government. But Apna Dal(K) could not win even a single seat and got only 0.278% votes. On the other hand, NDA’s ally Apna Dal (S) contested the assembly elections on 17 seats and won 12 of them.

Senior journalist Sharat Pradhan says, “SP lacks prominent Kurmi leaders. Despite Pallavi Patel’s significant victory against Keshav Maurya, Akhilesh does not appear to be giving her much importance. In sharp contrast, the BJP seems to recognize the significance of the Kurmi vote and has therefore given Anupriya Patel a berth in the Modi government.”

The significance of the Kurmi community can be observed from the fact that during this recent UP visit on July 7, Modi made it a point to visit the home of Pankaj Choudhary, a prominent Kurmi leader who is a six-time MP from Maharajganj. Currently, he is serving as a MoS in the central government.

Maurya, Kushwaha and Shakya

The Maurya, Kushwaha and Shakya communities constitute around 6% of the state’s population. According to the CSDS post-poll study, the BJP received 64% of the votes from these communities, while the SP could obtain only 22% in the 2022 assembly elections. Political analysts suggest that it seems difficult for SP to recapture this vote bank from the BJP. 

With a view to wooing these communities in the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh adopted a two-fold strategy. Firstly, he struck an alliance with Keshav Dev Maurya who runs a regional outfit called Mahan Dal. But this time Keshav Dev has already declared his unconditional support to Mayawati’s BSP.

Akhilesh’s second strategy was to bring veteran Maurya community leader Swami Prasad Maurya into SP, who joined the party just before the 2022 assembly elections. Maurya however created much embarrassment for Akhilesh by making certain controversial remarks about Ramcharitmanas. 

Senior journalist Brijesh Shukla said, “Swami Prasad Maurya’s lost his own seat in Kushinagar, his influence is limited. His recent statements concerning the Ramcharitmanas are causing more harm than good for the Samajwadi Party.” 

Jat 

The SP faces a significant challenge in the Jat-dominated Western UP. It is difficult for SP to perform well independently in the region due to the limited presence of Yadav voters. In the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh Yadav played his cards well by aligning with Rashtriya Lok Dal’s (RLD) Jayant Chaudhary, the grandson of Chaudhary Charan Singh, who has been among the tallest Jat leaders from the state. 

However, Jat vote dropped from 57% in the 2017 assembly elections to 33% in the 2022 elections after SP’s alliance, according to CSDS post-poll study.

Ram Dutt Tripathi, a former BBC correspondent, says, “2022 election was a significant opportunity for Akhilesh and Jayant to attract the Jat votes, especially given the large-scale farmers’ movement in Western UP and the sympathy factor for Jayant among the Jats due to his father Ajit Singh’s demise. Despite the circumstances, if the Jats did not vote for the SP alliance, it seems very difficult for the Jats to come back to the SP fold.” Meanwhile, speculation is rife that the BJP may succeed in its subtle moves to woo Jayant Chaudhary.

 PDA’s ‘D’ stands for Dalit

Coming to the ‘D’ of Akhilesh’s PDA, Uttar Pradesh has 22% Dalit voters. The SP is also focusing on securing their support. 

The party’s biggest asset is R.K. Choudhary, a veteran Dalit leader and former associate of BSP founder Kanshiram. He is visiting Dalit-dominated villages to spread the word that SP is the true well-wisher of Dalits. He says, “We are raising concerns related to caste-based reservations, social justice and equality.” 

RK Choudhary addressing a gathering in Hardoi. Photo: RK Choudhary

SP witnessed a slight increase in the Dalit vote share in the 2022 assembly elections. The Jatav votes increased by 6%, while non-Jatav votes increased by 12%. However, Akhilesh faces three significant challenges in securing the Dalit vote.

Firstly, the sympathy factor for Mayawati among Jatavs. Ramraj, a grocery store owner in Banda says, “The Jatav community carries a significant sense of remorse and deep concern for Mayawati. In the forthcoming election, even those Jatavs who had previously parted ways with the BSP are returning, while the existing supporters are steadfastly standing alongside Behenji.”

Secondly, the threat SP is facing is BJP’s success at capturing a good chunk of non-Jatav Dalits since the 2014 elections and its bid to increase its vote share among Jatavs as well. Asim Arun former police commissioner of Kanpur and now minister of social welfare in the UP government says, “We are continuously working among the Dalits, and giving them leadership positions in the party. Moreover, our welfare schemes like the free housing scheme, ration and construction of toilets have consolidated their support for BJP.”

Thirdly, there is a longstanding conflict between Jatavs and Yadavs in the villages, which has led to Jatavs not aligning with the SP. However, Chandra Shekhar Choudhary, the state chief of SP’s Ambedkar Vahini argues, “The fight for power is no longer between different factions of PDA but rather against the NDA.”

PDA’s ‘A’ means alpasankhyak (minority)

 Coming to alpsankhyaks, Akhilesh Yadav is relying heavily on the support of the minority community which has been a core base of the party ever since its inception. In UP, there are approximately 19% Muslim voters. 

According to a post-poll study by Axis My India, 82% of Muslims voted for the SP alliance in the 2022 assembly elections, even surpassing the Muslim vote share the SP-BSP-RLD alliance received in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, this vote bank is now facing threats as the BSP and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) performed well in some places in the recent civic elections held in May this year. 

SP spokesperson Abbas Haider asserts, “There is a significant difference between civic elections and Lok Sabha. When there is an election to change the government at the national level, the entire Muslim community will stand unitedly with Akhilesh Yadav.”

Abbas Haider with supporters Photo: Twitter/Abbas Haider

BSP does present a notable challenge to the Muslim vote bank of the SP. Mayawati is trying to regain her Muslim support and has strategically included prominent Muslim leaders like Imran Masood, Guddu Jamali, and Afzal Ansari. 

Brijesh Shukla says “New equations are emerging in Western Uttar Pradesh. While the Jatav community is already with Mayawati, a considerable number of Muslim voters, who previously supported the SP, are now shifting their support towards the BSP.”

No doubt, there have been some instances of Muslim disillusionment with Akhilesh Yadav but it is quite evident that the community has very few options other than voting en bloc with SP.

While there appears to be sufficient logic behind Akhilesh’s latest strategy of building a PDA coalition, but a lot has to be done on the ground for it to be successful.

 Aman is an independent journalist.

In Lakhnawi Tradition, Communal Harmony in Places of Worship Leaves No Space for Hatred

The history of Lucknow’s culture is replete with stories of harmony between Hindus and Muslims. Temples were either built or maintained by Muslim rulers. Some mosques were raised by Hindus.

Lucknow: “How times have changed. Gone are the days when people lived in utmost communal harmony and peace,” Nawab Mir Jafar Abdullah, descendent of Wajid Ali Shah, lamented, while watching the news on the Gyanvapi mosque case, in his house in Lucknow’s Sheesh Mahal area.

Recalling an incident, the Nawab said, “Once Nawab Wajid Ali Shah was captured by Britishers and was being taken to Metiaburj, where he was kept in exile in a place which was then a suburb of modern Kolkata. As rumour spread that this famous Nawab of Awadh was being forcibly transported to London, congregations of Hindu women gathered in temples across large parts of Awadh and started to sing, ‘Hazrat jate hain London, kripa karo Raghunandan (‘the Nawab is being taken to London, please bless him Lord Ram’).’

Nawab Mir Jafar Abdullah, descendent of Wajid Ali Shah, at his home. Photo: Aman

The history of Awadh is replete with tales of such communal harmony between Hindus and Muslims.

There are some prominent temples, not only in Lucknow but also in Ram’s town of Ayodhya, which were either built by Muslims or maintained by Muslim rulers of those times. Likewise, there are examples of some mosques or imambaras having been raised by Hindus.

Lucknow is not just the name of a city but it is synonymous with adab and tehzeeb (mannerism and culture). Its body may appear like a labyrinth of walls, roads, lanes and bylanes, but mannerism and hospitality are in its soul. The city is the epitome of love and brotherhood of the two biggest communities of the nation. What can be a better example of the Ganga-Jamuni tehzeeb than Awadh’s fourth Nawab Asaf-ud-Daula’s mother Aliya Begum, undertaking the construction of Lucknow’s legendary 250-year-old Hanuman temple. If you find the temple’s old dome still adorned with a moon and a star, sure enough, it was because of her role in building this temple. This is the biggest and oldest Hanuman temple in Lucknow. Almost 30,000 devotees visit the temple every Tuesday and Saturday.

Hanuman Temple. Photo: Aman

Hanuman Temple’s old dome still adorned with a moon and a star. Photo: Aman

According to the temple priest, Pandit Jagdamba, “As the legend goes, once lord Hanuman appeared in Begum Aliya’s dream telling her that he is lying embedded in a garden and that he would be happy if she could have him extricated from that garden and get him installed in a temple. Aliya Begum identified the place and ordered excavation at the spot from where an ancient Hanuman idol was found and duly installed in what is this Aliganj temple today.”

Pandit Jagdamba. Photo: Aman

“Later, it was Nawab Wajid Ali Shah who started a mela (fair) around this historical Hanuman temple in Aliganj on the occasion of ‘Bada Mangal’ in the Hindu month of Jyeshtha,” he added.

The mela is a part of that old tradition that is being followed to this day, when one can witness it during the current month of Jyeshtha that started on May 17.

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Nawab Wajid Ali Shah had also banned the killing of monkeys, which was declared as a serious crime. And as a patron of art, a poet, playwright and an exponent of Kathak, that was known as the dance of traditional storytellers, he wrote the famous Urdu play titled Radha-Kanhaiya in which he himself played the role of the popular Hindu Lord Krishna.

A few kilometres away from the Hanuman temple stands Kazmain Rauza (dargah) in old Lucknow’s Chaupatiyan. The Rauza was made in 1852. It is a replica of a sacred mausoleum in Iran that was built in memory of the 7th Imaam of Khurasan Hazrat Moosa of Shia Muslims.

Kazmain Rauza, in old Lucknow’s Chaupatiyan. Photo: Aman

What makes the Rauza of Lucknow so unique is the story behind its making. “As it can be found in the book Lucknow’s Lost Monument, written by Saiyed Anwar Abbas, Nawab Amjad Ali Shah had a courtier, Jagannath Aggrawal, who used to live in Lucknow’s Chowk. He visited Iran and saw the Rauza of Imam Moosa. He was so impressed by its structure and beauty that when he returned, he immediately ordered a replica of it to be made here. Not only this, he invited Persian artisans to assist in the execution of this mission. This was the first Rauza to be built by a Hindu,” Shamil Shamsi from old Lucknow said.

The 250-year-old monument has the same large, splendid and influential dome set on deep drums with four minarets in four corners and has the same mehrab (niche) as on the original tomb in Iran.

This has been a symbol of communal harmony in the city for centuries. The Rauza, made by a Hindu, receives hordes of Muslim devotees, who also strongly believe that this place is endowed with magical faith-healing. “Whenever I am in some problem or in pain, I come here. I express to the Imaam what my heart feels and it seems as if Imaam holds my heart. I find spiritual peace here,” a devotee told this reporter.

In the narrow lanes of Aminabad in Lucknow, a huge white structure with a golden gate and rectangular flower work will definitely catch the eye of every passer-by.

This mosque, popularly called as ‘Panditain ki Masjid’ or ‘Padain Ki Masjid’ (the Brahmin Woman’s Mosque), is special as it was built by a Brahmin lady for the Muslims of the locality to offer their prayers. According to Nawab Mir Jafar Abdullah,“Rani Jai Kunwar Pandey, who owned Aminabad, was a close friend of the Begum of then Awadh Nawab, Saadat Ali Khan. Their friendship was so strong that she got this mosque built as a gift to her friend Khadija Khanam, the wife of the Nawab.”

Panditain ki Masjid. Photo: Aman

In Lucknow’s Thakurganj mohalla, as the clock strikes 4 in the morning, the loudspeakers are adjusted as it’s time for azaan. The muezzin urges Muslims to come and offer namaz. Devotees offer namaz five times a day in what is popularly known as ‘Jhau Lal ki Masjid’. They also hold Majlis just across Jhau Lal’s Imambara, in the memory of the martyrdom of Karbala. This Imambara and mosque were not built by any Muslim but by Nawab Asafudaula’s Hindu wazir (minister), Raja Jhau Lal Shrivastav.

Mohd. Abbas, manager of Imambara Jhaulal, said, “This Imambara is special; there are many Imambaras built by the Muslims; but this is unique as it was built by a Hindu. Worshiping in this Imambara gives peace of mind and solace.” Expressing concern over today’s drastically changing social ethos, he goes on to add, “What gives the greatest joy is that there was a time hundred years from now, when there was so much affection, understanding and fraternity among people of different faiths.”

The list is never ending. Baba Gomti Das’ temple in Thakurganj is in the same lane as Jhau Lal’s Imambara. This temple was built by Nawab Asaf-ud-daula, who funded its daily running.

Baba Gomti Das Temple. Photo: Aman

Dhruv Lal Shukla, the priest of the temple, said, “Temples like Baba Gomti Das are a source of inspiration for us.” Hinting at the communal politics being systematically fuelled by vested interests, he said, “Earlier, there was so much brotherhood and amity among people of different faiths that there was no room for hatred.”

Evidently, it was Nawab Asaf-ud-Daula who set the real benchmark of communal amity and harmony in Awadh during the late 18th century itself. It is common knowledge that mourning of Muharram is observed  for two months and eight days in Lucknow. During this time, the Shia Muslims wear black clothes and strictly shun any kind of celebration or music. However, Nawab Asaf-ud-Daula went out of his way to even participate in Holi, the Hindu festival of colours, during one such occasion.

According to a popular anecdote, once Holi happened to coincide with ‘Daswi Muharram’, and while the Nawab was returning after carrying out the traditional ceremony of burying the Tazia (miniature mausoleum), from the Talkatora Karbala, he was greeted by a group of Holi revellers who sought to put colour on him. What the Nawab did left his own courtiers dumbfounded.

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It goes as follows, “The entourage of Nawab Asaf-ud-Daula was passing through the old Chowk Bazar, where Hindus were busy playing holi. They asked the Nawab if they could put colours on him. Far from rebuking anyone, the Nawab alighted from his royal cart, greeted everyone and told Holi revellers to feel free to put the popular ‘gulal’ (coloured powder) on him. As the story goes, later, when his minister asked him whether it was appropriate for him to have joined a Holi celebration while he was observing Muharrum mourning, he clarified that he had done no wrong as he had simply participated in the happiness of people who were part of his family.”

That clearly reflected the extent to which he could mould himself in the larger interest of upholding his ideal of religious harmony. In Awadh, dozens of Hindu poets wrote dirges in the memory of Hazrat Imam Hussain. In keeping with the ‘Lakhnawi’ tradition of brotherhood, today’s well-known ‘Dastango’ (storyteller) and scholar Himanshu Bajpai, recites Marsiya or elegiac poetry.

“This is my passion and through this I wish to keep the rich Lakhnawi tradition alive,” said Himanshu, who hails from a highly traditional Brahmin family.

Himanshu Bajpai in Lucknow’s Chota Imambara reciting a Marsiya. Photo: Aman

In Lucknow’s Chota Imambara, Himanshu’s voice echoes as he narrates a Marsiya.

“Har martaba fariyaad thi aur nalaya-e-jan kah

Haq se ye hi karte the dua ro k basad aah

muztar hu bahut sabra ata kar mere Allaha

Aulad ke sadme se mera dil nahi aagha

Jati hai muhammad ki nishani mere ghar se

18 baras baad bichhadta hu pisar se”

This Marsiya expresses Hazrat Imaam Hussain’s pain over the death of his 18-year-old son, martyred in Karbala.

With the BSP’s Vote Share Shrinking, Which Way Will UP’s Dalit Voters Go?

Post-poll analysis from this year’s election clearly suggests that Mayawati’s core Jatav base has also eroded, perhaps for the first time in the party’s 38-year history.

Lucknow: As the sun sets in the Dalit-dominated village of Hussainabad, Mohanlalganj in Lucknow district of Uttar Pradesh, a few locals are engaged in a political discussion under the flickering light of a feeble bulb.

Mahesh Gautam sets the tone with his remark, “Kanshiram kahte the ki vo Bahujan ko is desh ka hukmaran dekhna chahate hain par ab vahi BSP sirf ek seat jeeti hai aur Bahujan andolan khatm ho raha hai (Kanshiram used to say that he wanted to see Bahujans to be the rulers of this nation, but now, the same Bahujan Samaj Party has only won a single seat and the Dalit movement appears to have nearly finished).”

In the recently concluded Uttar Pradesh state assembly elections, what emerged quite significantly was the voting behaviour of Dalits – more particularly the Jatavs, the numerically larger group in the community. There are around 66 sub-castes within the Dalit community, whose population is estimated to be around 22% of the states total. And neatly 50% of these are Jatavs, the sub-caste to which BSP supremo Mayawati also belongs. Of the remaining 65 sub-castes, the more prominent ones are Valmikis, Pasis, Koeris, Khatiks etc.

Since the BSP’s rise in the state, Dalits showed infallible loyalty to the party time and again. However, after the Bharatiya Janata Party’s resurgence in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the party worked hard on the non-Jatavs. Their effort bore fruit, with a chunk of the non-Jatav population deserting Mayawati and switching loyalties to the BJP.

However, post-poll analysis from this year’s election clearly suggests that Mayawati’s core Jatav base has also eroded, perhaps for the first time in the party’s 38-year history. According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), 87% Jatavs voted for the BSP in 2017, but that number came down to 65% in the 2022 election. In addition, BSP’s overall vote percentage also went down from 22.23% in the 2017 assembly elections to 12.8% in 2022.

Shamshad Khan, psephologist and managing director of the PEACS News Service, said, “A major chunk i.e 9-10% of votes in the remaining 12.8% vote share of BSP is of the Jatav community.” The BSP is left with its Jatav base and Mayawati’s noticeable absenteeism has prompted other parties to actively work among Jatavs. Yashwant Deshmukh, founder-director of ‘C – Voter’, said, “The Jatav vote can revert to the BSP only if Mayawati stages a miraculous comeback – that  can mark the beginning of a new era in UP politics.” 

Thirty-eight years ago, when the late Kanshiram gave birth to the BSP on Ambedkar Jayanti (April 14), he ignited a new hope among the Dalit community. He toiled to mobilise Dalits, who soon hailed him as their tallest leader. He showed new horizons, following which the party marked its first electoral success in 1993 when it formed the government in coalition with the Samajwadi Party in the state. It was the undaunted strength of Dalits and skilful bargaining by Kanshiram that made Mayawati chief minister of the state three times in collaboration with the BJP. And finally, the BSP got its biggest success, when in 2007 Mayawati could ride to power with a full majority of her own.

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Ironically, BSP’s decline started during this period. According to Yashwant Deshmukh, “Mayawati’s downfall started when her image as a strict administrator – that was her biggest USP – took a hit. Slogans like ‘Goonde chadh gaye haathi par, goli maare chaati par’ did massive damage.” A lot of questions were also raised on Mayawati’s style of functioning and allegations of corruption raised against her. Former IPS officer S.R. Darapuri, who is now a prominent Dalit rights leader and social activist, besides the head of his own political outfit All India People’s Front, said, “When Mayawati came to power with full majority, she did not present any Dalit agenda and Dalits did not benefit during her regime. Moreover, she ignored the non-Jatav communities.”

Darapuri added, “Kanshiram was an ideologue whose social justice was for the welfare of the Dalits. Mayawati is less of an ideologue, her social justice is not on the ground, and it is just there for votes.” Being out of power for nearly 10 years, BSP’s cadre has become weak; the party also lacks local leadership of Jatavs and non-Jatavs. Dinesh Khatik, a student in Lucknow University, said, “The younger generation has not seen Mayawati fighting for us [Dalits], so much so that even the older ones in our families have lost confidence and faith in her.”

According to CSDS post-poll study, BSP’s Dalit vote share went down from around 16% in 2007 to 9.96% in 2022. The challenge for BSP is twofold first to retain the Jatavs base, and secondly, also regain its Non-Jatav base from the BJP. This has also been acknowledged by the BSP supremo. In a press statement issued on 27 March, 2022 she said, “Apart from the Dalits of my caste the non-Jatav Dalits, have to be adjoined to BSP after taking them out from the BJP’s Hindutva.”

The negative aspect of the BSP’s downfall is that it’s a big loss for Dalits. The hope and voice Kanshiram gave to the community is being affected. In the past 10 years, the Dalit movement is seen to be ending, senior journalist, Brijesh Shukla said. “A movement is just not fought on the road – it has an ideology, a commitment; it has its thinkers who propagate it among people’s mind. The movement that has its genesis in social thought, has come at crossroads. In Indian history, you would have never seen such a movement that invokes your consciousness, creates awareness and aggressiveness at the same time. But slowly it is losing its spark, it is getting over,” he said.

BJP 

Ever since the Narendra Modi-led BJP came into power in 2014, the party’s image in Uttar Pradesh has completely changed. Unlike in the past, when it was seen largely as a party of Brahmins and Baniyas, it is now a party that encompasses Dalits as well as backward classes in addition to upper castes. And that is what has led to the further downfall of the BSP.

Gearing up for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Bhartiya Janta Party has doubled its efforts to capture the Dalit base once and for all. The challenge before them is to keep their non-Jatav Dalit voter base intact, while making inroads among Jatavs. The Yogi Adityanath government is all set to organise grand celebrations for Ambedkar Jayanti. The chief minister will launch a new ‘Dalit Mitra’ agenda which is slated to be a four-month-long programme. Meanwhile, as many as eight Dalits were given berths in Adityanath’s newly formed council of ministers.

The BJP has made it a point to lay special emphasis on Jatavs by inducting two prominent faces into the cabinet. Baby Rani Maurya, the national vice president of the BJP, who was Uttarakhand governor until she was given a ticket to contest from Agra, is the state’s new minister for women and child welfare. Likewise, senior IPS officer Asim Arun, who was ushered into the party after being made to seek premature retirement as Kanpur police commissioner, has been inducted as minister of state for social welfare (with independent charge). Arun won the election from Kannauj, defeating three-time sitting SP MLA Anil Dohre.

Asim Arun in his constituency, Kannauj. Photo: Asim Arun/Twitter

Shukla pointed out, “Asim Arun is the son of UP’s widely respected IPS officer Shriram Arun, who was two-time DGP of the state and post retirement he had worked with dedication for the upliftment of the Dalits and the poor in his native village in Kannauj. Following his footprints, Asim Arun and his wife Jyotsna also continued to serve those people. It clearly shows how BJP is always keeping an eye out for people with talent and potential, which is how they build leaders and also fit them in their narrative.”

Different strategic decisions taken by the BJP have helped them immensely. Their Dalit base has increased over the years, especially in this election. According to the CSDS post-poll study, the BJP’s Jatav base went up from 5% in 2012 to 21% in 2022. It’s non-Jatav base went up from 11% in 2012 to 41% in 2022.

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According to Preety Choudhary, assistant professor at Ambedkar University, “Over the years, the BJP and RSS have paid respect to Dalit icons and symbols in the rural areas. They gave homage to non-Jatav heroes such as Baldeo and Daldeo and Jatav heroes like Ravidas and Kabirpanthis.”

How various government schemes also made the desired impact on Dalits was highlighted by Shukla, who said, “The benefit of welfare schemes like housing, construction of toilets, free gas, free electricity, scholarship and Ayushman Yojna have benefited the poor Dalits the most.”

Another former UP DGP, Brijlal, who was handpicked to be made BJP Rajya Sabha MP, said, “The SC/ST Act is now more effectively and strictly implemented. There is also a massive increment in relief funds for Dalits and their families against atrocities.”

Samajwadi Party 

The SP has realised that if it wants to form the government in UP, it needs the backing of the Dalit community. No wonder, Akhilesh Yadav too has plans to have a grand celebration on the occasion of Ambedkar Jayanti. A colourful tableau (jhanki) is to be organised, lit with diyas by SP workers, in each block and village of Uttar Pradesh.

After a gap of nearly three decades, Akhilesh reconvened the Samajwadi Party’s Dalit Wing called Baba Saheb Ambedkar Vahini in October 2021. And this did not go unnoticed among Dalits. According to the CSDS post-poll study, SP’s non-Jatav base has gone up from 11% in 2017 to 23% in this election. Shukla too confirmed, “Non-Jatav Dalits like Pasis, Valmikis have gone with SP in pockets like Allahabad and Azamgarh commissionary. It has been possible due to the influential Dalit regional leaders like Indrajeet Saroj.”

Now with Mayawati losing bulk of the non-Jatav Dalit votes, it could be SP’s golden opportunity to capture this chunk. Chandra Shekhar Choudhary, the state chief of SP’s Ambedkar Vahini, said, “We will go from village to village to provide Dalits with more opportunities and space in the party.”

Chandrashekhar Choudhary addressing a gathering. Photo: Courtesy Chandrashekhar Choudhary

Preety Choudhary argued that Akhilesh has not done much for the Dalit community and has also not been able to develop a Dalit leadership within the party. There are various reasons why Dalits don’t prefer the SP, and a major one of them is the aggressiveness of the party’s Yadav supporters. Monu Satnami, a small shop owner in the Banda district of Bundelkhand, observed, “Dalits are harassed and beaten most by the Samajwadi Party people in our village. BJP has provided us with protection against this hooliganism.”

Agreeing, Yashwant Deshmukh said, “If there is an anti-BJP vote, then there is also an anti-SP vote bank. If the BSP Jatav base starts dwindling, then it will be the loss of the SP, because Yadavs and Jatavs don’t vote together.”

The SP has begun planning to counter this perception. Chandrashekhar Choudhary said, “We will work most among Jatavs. At the village level, we will assign responsibility to well-to-do Yadavs to embrace the Dalits of their respective areas and show respect towards them.” Whether such outreach could pay political dividends for the SP remains to be seen.

Aman is an independent journalist.

Why Is Akhilesh Yadav Teaming up With Smaller Parties With Little Statewide Influence?

The significance of these parties can be understood by looking their region-wise performance. It is clear that whoever manages the UP polls seat by seat will win the election.

On December 14, the Dharmapur grounds in Jaunpur district of eastern Uttar Pradesh were packed. The occasion was the sixth leg of the Vijay Rath Yatra being led by Akhilesh Yadav.

Waving flags of red, green, yellow and blue, supporters from smaller parties like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), the Janwadi Socialist party (JSP), the Mahan Dal and others shouted Samajwadi Party’s new slogan, ‘Pichhdon ka inquilaab hoga, 22 mein badlaav hoga’. ‘The revolution of the backwards is coming, change is in the offing.’

Once it was his turn to speak, Akhilesh took the microphone and said, “Take a look for yourself. How many colours of flags are with us. You will not find so many colours of flags anywhere else. With all these colours, we have made a multi-coloured bouquet. Now, it has become a fight of multi-colour alliances verses the monochromatic mindset of saffron.”

Despite defeats in the 2017 and 2019 elections, when Akhilesh Yadav was in alliance with Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party respectively, he continues to remain upbeat about alliances – but with a twist.

This time, he is creating a formidable coalition by bringing together small caste-based parties from all over Uttar Pradesh. The strategy behind this seems to be that Akhilesh Yadav, since 2014, has been facing charges of being partisan against non-Yadav Other Backward Classes and is keen to shed this image. 

The Jaunpur Vijay Rath Yatra. Photo: By arrangement

The Axis My India survey for the 2017 assembly elections shows that 58% OBCs voted for Bharatiya Janata Party, while only 18% voted for SP. But the percentage of Yadavs who voted for SP was 80%.

Also read: Turnout at Akhilesh Yadav’s Rallies Will Boost SP. But Is It Enough to Dethrone BJP?

This is why Akhilesh is trying to ally with smaller parties representing non-Yadav OBCs who constitute 35% of the OBC population in Uttar Pradesh.

Ram Dutt Tripathi, former BBC correspondent, says, “The biggest challenge for Akhilesh to win this election is to break the image of SP being for Yadavs only.”

Agreeing with the idea, Brijesh Shukla, another veteran journalist says, “During the past governments of SP, a number of local leaders were accused of land grabbing, pooling of tenders and hooliganism. This time, he needs to assure voters that this will not be repeated. Yadavs will not be first among equals.” 

Some suggest that Akhilesh is using the successful formula perfected by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav by projecting himself as the leader of all backward communities. Preeti Choudhari, a professor of political science at Bhimrao Ambedkar Central University in Lucknow says this formula could pay dividends for Akhilesh.

“Mulayam Singh had a bouquet of leaders of various castes and they would take care of caste equations all over Uttar Pradesh. But later these caste leaders formed their own parties. Now Akhilesh is trying to align with them in hopes of getting the vote of their community,” Choudhari said.

Akhilesh Yadav greets supporters. Photo: Twitter/@yadavakhilesh

Percentage game

Akhilesh appears to now realise that elections cannot be won only with support from Muslims and Yadavs. To win, SP needs to increase its vote percentage in the state. When SP came to power in 2012 the party got a 29.7% vote share, while in the 2017 assembly elections the BJP got 40% vote share. Muslims and Yadavs, the core voters of SP lead it to a 24-25% vote share. Earlier the SP used to bank on the local candidates to get additional 7-8% of votes but now even that is not sufficient. 

Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder-director of the polling agency C Voter says, “Since 2014, the threshold in UP has changed. To win the election a party needs to get 40% vote share. There is a glass ceiling that is 30%, which SP has already reached. Akhilesh is unable to crack that. His idea is that his own base is 25%, and with these smaller parties his base may increase by 15% and he will form the government with 40%.”

However, there are views to the contrary as well which suggest that SP can form a government even with 36-38% vote share. 

Shamshad Khan, psephologist and managing director of the PEACS News Service says, “If SP gets 30% vote share, they may stop at 100-120 seats but with these parties coming together their vote share goes up to 34% and they will get 200 seats. And once they are able to reach 36% they can get around 250 seats because then BJP’s vote share of last time will also start coming down.

Family equations

The latest alliance partner of Akhilesh is his estranged uncle Shivpal Yadav who heads the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party. On December 16, this year, after an hour-long meeting with Shivpal at his home, Akhilesh tweeted a photo with him and formally announced the alliance.

It was the sixth party with which Akhilesh had forged an alliance in a month’s time. Shivpal has significant influence in the Yadav heartland, including the districts of Etawah, Mainpuri, Kannauj and Firozabad.

Alok Joshi, former CNBC Awaaz head and senior journalist says, “ Shivpal has worked closely with Mulayam Singh Yadav for years. His tremendous organisational capabilities will definitely benefit SP.”

The strongest ally

 The RLD is the strongest ally of Akhilesh Yadav. It is a regional party of Western UP with a strong vote base in the Jat community. It was founded by Chaudhary Charan Singh, a Jat farmer leader and a former prime minister. His son Ajit Singh, an eight-time MP and the president of the party died during the second wave of COVID-19.

The party is at present led by his son Jayant Chaudhary. The Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 were a major setback for the party. It sharply divided society and their traditional Jat vote shifted to the BJP. 

According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies’  studies, in 2014 and 2019 elections, BJP got 77% and 91% of Jat votes respectively, while it had got only 7% of these votes in the 2012 elections. The RLD could only win one seat in the 2017 assembly elections and secured only 1.78% votes in the state.

The party seems to have regained its ground in the region and the farmers’ movement has provided a ground to Jats and Muslims to come together. 

Also read: Not Just a Farmers’ Stir But a Democratic Pushback Against Uncaring Rule

Political analysts feel that a major chunk of Jats who shifted to BJP after the Muzaffarnagar riots can be back with the party.

According to estimates by political parties, there are about 14% of Jats in around 20 districts of Western UP. The RLD has a good influence in Baghpat, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Moradabad, Saharanpur and Shamli.

Akhilesh is thus banking on Jayant’s popularity in Western UP.

Sharat Pradhan, a senior journalist, says, “After two decades I can see the RLD in its old form as a formidable force in Western UP. RLD’s own vote base will certainly increase in the area.” 

SBSP

The SBSP is a caste-based regional outfit representing the Rajbhar community and some other backward castes. It was founded in 2002 by its current president Om Prakash Rajbhar. According to estimates by political analysts, the Rajbhar community is around 4% in UP. They are mainly found in 70-80 seats of eastern UP in which, in 35 constituencies, there are 10,000-40,000 Rajbhar votes.

Om Prakash Rajbhar has influence in districts of Azamgarh, Ballia, Mau, Mirzapur and Ghazipur. The party was in alliance with BJP in the assembly elections of 2017, when it won four seats and got around six lakh votes (0.70%). This time they have formed an alliance with the Samajwadi Party. 

Sharat Pradhan says, “The Rajbhar community voted en bloc for BJP in 2017, but may shift this time to the SP alliance not just because of the SBSP, but also with strong Rajbhar leaders from BSP like Ram Achal Rajbhar and Sukhdev Rajbhar joining SP.” 

Also read: The UP Assembly Polls Are Almost Here – But Where Is BSP? 

Akhilesh Yadav and Om Prakash Rajbhar. Photo: By arrangement

JSP

JSP was founded and led by Sanjay Chauhan, a backward community leader from Ghazipur.

The party represents mainly the OBC Nonia community of Uttar Pradesh.

According to estimates by political analysts, they are around 2% Nonias in the state. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election the JSP chief fought on SP’s symbol and got around 5 lakh votes. To tackle JSP’s influence, BJP has allied with Prithiviraj Janshakti Party’s Chandan Singh Chauhan, who represents the same community.

Ravikant, assistant professor of Lucknow University says, “Sanjay Chauhan has good influence among Nonia community in Varanasi, Chandauli, Ghazipur and Bhadohi. It will certainly be beneficial for Akhilesh.”

Mahan Dal 

Mahan Dal is a caste-based regional party representing Maurya, Kushwaha and Shakya OBC communities. It is led by Keshav Dev Maurya and was founded in 2008.

According to estimates by political analysts, these communities are around 6%. Keshav Dev Maurya enjoys the support of backward castes in districts like Kasganj, Farrukhabad, Etah, Badaun and Fatehpur.

Hisam Siddique, a senior journalist, says, “In the last few elections a major chunk of these communities had supported BJP. But their alliance will help the SP. Keshav Dev Maurya has already taken out a Yatra in around a dozen districts to mobilise his community.” 

Also read: Can Farmers’ Movement Trump Older Political Equations in UP’s Crucial Western Region?

Apna Dal (Kamerawadi)

Originally, Apna Dal, a caste-based party representing the Kurmi OBC community mainly in eastern UP, was founded by Sonelal Patel, a Kurmi leader who was earlier in BSP.

After his death, a family feud led to his party diving into two factions. Sone Lal’s daughter Anupriya Patel who is at present a minister in the Union Cabinet leads the Apna Dal (S) and her mother Krishna Patel is the president of Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) supported by Anupriya’s younger sister, Pallavi Patel.

 According to political analysts, there are 5% Kurmi voters in UP and around 12% in Eastern UP. Kurmis hold sway over districts like Varanasi, Mirzapur, Bareilly and Ambedkar Nagar. The Kurmi community fully backed BJP in the last few elections in UP.

This time SP is trying to make inroads in the community by bringing Krishna Patel and Lalji Verma, a strong Kurmi leader and an erstwhile BSP MLA to its fold.

Also read: Dismantling the BJP’s Image as ‘Party of Subaltern Castes’ in Uttar Pradesh

Brijesh Shukla says, “Krishna Patel does not have much influence on Kurmi votes, like her daughter Anupriya Patel. But Lalji Verma will prove to be more of a vote catcher for the party.”

Small but significant

Although these parties do not have state-wide influence, their significance can be understood by looking their region wise performance. Experts suggest these parties separately do not create much impact but when they work in alliances, they can be a formidable force.

Shamshad Khan says, “If Sanjay Chauhan has an impact in 12 seats, Krishna Patel in 5 seats, Om Prakash Rajbhar in 10 seats, then this will be the BJP’s loss and the SP’s gain. On every seat, an average 3,75,000 people vote. If a party is able to shift 25,000 votes on a particular seat, it’s a big deal. Whoever manages this election seat by seat, will win the election.”

Can Farmers’ Movement Trump Older Political Equations in UP’s Crucial Western Region?

Western Uttar Pradesh, near the ‘Mahabharata’s mythological battlefield of Kurukshetra, is all set to become a political battleground in the state’s upcoming assembly elections.

Lucknow: Uttar Pradesh’s Western region, just a few kilometres away from Haryana’s Kurukshetra, the Mahabharata’s legendary battlefield, has become the battleground for the crucial 2021 assembly elections in UP. In the last year, the biggest opposition to the Adityanath government has emerged from this region itself, where farmers protesting the now notorious agricultural laws are taking on the BJP government with much intensity.

Western UP has 20 districts and around 100 assembly seats. According to estimates from political analysts, some of the major communities in the area are Muslims (22%), Dalits (16%), Jats (14%), Brahmins (7-8%), Thakurs (4-5%) and Gujjars (3-4%). Apart from Jats and Gujjars, OBC communities comprise 10-12% of the region. The BJP has performed exceptionally well in the region after the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots. In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP won 78 while Samajwadi Party (SP) could only manage 16 out of the 100 seats. 

BJP also defeated the top leaders of the Rasthriya Lok Dal (RLD), the biggest regional party in Western UP. Its founder, Ajit Singh and his son, Jayant Chaudhary, lost the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019 to the BJP. This time, however, things seem a little different.

The farmers’ agitation which has gone on for the last 11 months poses a big challenge to the BJP. “Western UP has never been the centre of such a big and fierce electoral battle ever before. And since the BJP had swept the last election, it is facing the biggest threat for losing the ground,” says Brijesh Shukla, an independent journalist and political analyst.  

Left to right: SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath and RLD leader Jayant Chaudhary. Photo: PTI, Twitter.

The BJP’s efforts

Well aware of the palpable anger against the party in Western UP, the BJP is in damage control mode.

Prime Minister Modi laid the foundation stone of a university named after the Jat king, Raja Mahendra Pratap Singh in Western UP’s Aligarh district September 14. Addressing a rally on the occasion, the Prime Minister repeated the name of the Jat king 17 times during his 40-minute speech and accused the opposition of neglecting his role in freedom struggle.

Modi also invoked farmer leader and former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, saying, “Chaudhary Charan Singh ji cared for the small farmers. It is very important for the government to stand with them like a partner. In our country, more than 80% farmers are small land holders.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi lays the foundation stone for the Raja Mahendra Pratap Singh State University in Aligarh with Uttar Pradesh Governor Anandiben Patel and CM Yogi Adityanath also present. Photo: PTI

Also read: Education, Illusion and Reality: A New Ideological Foundation Stone to Firm up an Election

Since BJP leaders claim that only ‘big’ farmers are involved in the ongoing agitation, this speech is being seen as a subtle message to create a divide between big and small farmers. 

Apart from this, UP chief minister Adityanath unveiled a statue of a 9th century Gujjar king, Mihira Bhoj, at Dadri in Gautam Buddh Nagar on September 22. The political analysts’ estimates say Gujjars make up 3-4 % of the population of Western UP. Swatantra Dev Singh and A.K. Sharma, president and the vice-president of the BJP in the state, have also toured many districts of Western UP, in what is being considered as an attempt to regain lost ground.

The RLD

The RLD is a regional party of Western UP currently led by Jayant Chaudhary (42), who has a Master’s degree in Accounting and Finance from the London School of Economics. He is also a former MP. His father, Ajit Singh, was an eight-time MP and his grandfather, Chaudhary Charan Singh, was the Prime Minister of India from 1979-1980.

Chaudhary Charan Singh was the biggest farmer leader of his time. He created a ‘MAJGAR’ formula, a formidable combination of Muslim, Ahir, Jat, Gujjar and Rajput, which got massive support. However, after his death, the RLD gradually shrunk until it became a party representing only the Jat community. After the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, the party also lost its traditional Muslim- Jat combination in the area.

In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party couldn’t win a single seat. What’s more, it managed only one seat in the 2017 assembly elections. The RLD has been in an alliance with the SP for the last few elections. However, analysts say the RLD stands to benefit the most from the farmers’ protests in the region. Alok Joshi, a senior journalist and author says, “The biggest benefit of the anger which [the] farmers’ protest has generated will be reaped by Jayant Chaudhary in the elections.” 

Chaudhary is working hard to revive the party. The RLD has launched several programmes, such as the Bhaichara Zindabad, Nyaya Yatra, Har Booth Jeetega Youth, Jan Aashirwad Yatra and so on to revive their connection with the masses. Anupam Mishra, RLD spokesperson says, “Jayant Chaudhary ji has been travelling extensively in the West since the last year. He has written letters to 59,000 gram pradhans (village heads) seeking their suggestions for the election manifesto. Apart from this, he will virtually interact with three crore people in a month.”

Jayant Chaudhary at an event. Photo: Twitter/RLD

After the sudden death of Ajit Singh, a sympathy factor is also at play for Jayant Chauadhary. “This time, a large number of Jat farmers feel guilty that Ajit Singh passed away without winning the election. This will help RLD in elections,” Shukla said. 

Also read: Uttar Pradesh Must Vote for Itself, Not to Signal BJP’s Fortunes in 2024

Is the Jat-Muslim divide over?

On September 5, 2021, social media was abuzz with slogans of Allahu Akbar and Har-Har Mahadev, raised by Rakesh Tikait on the stage of a kisan mahapanchayat at Muzaffarnagar. Tikait is the national spokesperson of Bhartiya Kisan Union (BKU), the biggest farmers union in India. Tikait was also accused of spreading hate speech against Muslims and calling upon Hindus for revenge on September 7, 2013, in a panchayat in Muzaffarnagar.

The September 5 Muzaffarnagar mahapanchyat, however, has played a major role in bridging the communal divide. In the run up to the mahapanchayat, eight mosques on the highways of Western UP were opened for Hindu farmers stay. Similar reports of unity came from different parts of Western UP as well. Ravi Kant, associate professor at Lucknow University, says, “Jat and Muslim communities put food stalls together in Khatauli, Jansath, Meerapur and Kawaal villages, which were the hubs of the riots in 2013.”  

Local Jats and Muslims came together at the kisan mahapanchayat in Muzaffarnagar in September. Photo: Ismat Ara

Now, the biggest challenge for the alliance will be to safeguard this unity. Keeping this in mind, the RLD has started several campaigns, one of which is the ‘Bhaichara Zindabad Abhiyan’. “With the Bhaichara Zindabad campaign, we went to 25 districts in a month to bring together Jats, Muslims and Dalits,” Mishra said.

Also read: Farmers’ Leader Rakesh Tikait Says Asaduddin Owaisi Is BJP’s ‘Chacha Jaan’

Will the Muslim vote get divided?

The Muslim vote is very crucial to the region. As per the 2011 Census, Muslims make up around 22% of the population of Western UP. After the 2013 riots, Muslims mostly voted for BSP which has a strong Jatav vote base in the region. In a highly polarised society, they felt that the BSP was the only strong alternative to BJP. The Congress has also done well in certain pockets with the help of Muslim votes. However, there are apprehension about the division of Muslim votes.

Though the Jat-Muslim bonhomie has changed the scenario. Imran Masood, former Congress MLA from Saharanpur says, “There is a lot of anger against the BJP in Western UP. This time, they will be wiped out and not get more than 20-25 seats.”

The Samajwadi Party also seems confident of getting Muslim votes en-bloc. Juhie Singh, national president of the Samajwadi Mahila Sabha says, “In Western UP, SP has strong team of traditional Muslim leaders who have influence in the area. They will ensure [that the] Muslim vote [does] not getting divided.” 

Reverse polarisation?

The Jat-Muslim unity has also raised concerns of ‘reverse polarisation’ against the SP-RLD alliance. Shukla says, “In reaction to Jat-Muslim unity, there are apprehensions of the realignment of smaller Hindu castes in Western UP like the Tyagis, Sainis, Gujjars, Lohaars, Kahaars and Kanchis in favour of the BJP. They are not very active in the farmers’ agitation.”

Some analysts feel that BJP has devised a strategy of counter-polarisation to avert a larger political crisis closer to the elections. A section of these smaller communities feel that if the RLD-SP alliance wins, only Jats and Muslims will get the benefits of jobs and government contracts. Narendra Pal, a primary school teacher in Shamli says, “People are scared that if the SP-RLD alliance wins, Jats and Muslims will be in a dominating position. Only the BJP can protect us from them.” 

Political analyst feel that the SP-RLD alliance needs to expand their base. Shamshad Khan, psephologist and managing director of the PEACS news service says, “The Jat-Muslim combination is most effective only on 30-35 seats of Western UP. On these seats, Jats and Muslims are around 80,000 to one lakh (33%). On the rest of the seats, the Jat and Muslim population is only 30,000-40,000 (11%). So the additional votes of 60,000 – 70,000 [voters] will be needed to win theses seats.”

Bhim Army chief Chandra Shekhar Aazad with the Hathras victim’s family. Photo: By arrangement

Azad Samaj Party (ASP) chief, Chandra Shekhar Aazad shares the same view. He says, “The BJP can’t be defeated by combining one or two castes. They have got electoral dividends by giving space to smaller castes. If the opposition wants to win, tickets should be distributed tactically.”

This is why SP is planning to adopt Mamata Banerjee’s strategy; they will distribute tickets to the leaders of those communities in which they have less support. A SP leader, who did not want to be named, says, “Jats and Muslims are already with us. So we will try to give tickets to other smaller communities like the Sainis, Gujjars and Kashyaps to seal our victory.”

Also read: Heading Towards the UP Polls, What Lies Ahead for Akhilesh Yadav?

The Dalit factor

The political analysts’ estimates put the Dalit population of Western UP at 16%. Among Dalits, Jatavs are the majority, followed by Valmikis and Koeris. The BJP has been successful in making inroads into the non-Jatav Dalit community but Jatavs, the sub-caste which BSP supremo Mayawati belongs to, have been firmly behind her. 

This time, the entry of Azad into the electoral arena has made the election more interesting. Azad, who has positioned himself as a street fighter for the cause of Dalits and the downtrodden, belongs to Saharanpur district of Western UP. He has held several rallies in the region and there are rumours in political circles that he will ally with SP-RLD alliance.

Speaking to this reporter, Azad said, “ASP will become a big force in Western UP. If RLD, SP and ASP come together, it will be ‘one plus one plus one’ and our strength will definitely increase, but we are making ourselves self-reliant.”

Azad has his sights set specifically on the Dalit youths in the area. Ajmal Rahi, who runs an organisation for communal harmony in Muzaffarnagar, says, “The post-millennial generation, which has never seen Mayawati going to any place where Dalits are facing atrocities, will vote for Azad. He has strong social media groups of the Dalit youth in the area.” 

The RLD is also trying to make inroads into the Dalit community. The party has launched the ‘Dalit Nyaya Yatra’; they have made Prashant Kanojia, a former journalist who is heading the Yatra, the national president of the party’s Scheduled Castes wing. Kanojia has travelled to eleven districts in last month and a half, mobilising Dalits in favour of the RLD. “Mayawati ji is not in a winning position, hence we are getting good response from Jatav and non Jatav communities, especially from Valmiki, Dhobhi and Khatik,” Kanojia said. 

Some analysts feel that the pattern of Dalit voting may change. “Mayawati has lost the trust of Dalit community over the years and around 20% Dalits of the region may shift to SP-RLD alliance,” said Kant.

The BJP is also working hard to occupy the space vacated by the BSP. Amit Valmiki, the BJP’s secretary in Western UP says, “In every Dalit-dominated village we have made booth-level committees. And we have made the local Dalits it’s office bearer. The Valmikis, Sonkars and Koeris are already with us, but this time we are targeting the Jatav community as well.”

The new ‘Kurukshetra’ is all set for the battle for the new ‘Hastinapur’ with the battle and its result all set to become part of UP’s electoral history. 

As UP Polls Come Closer, Parties Vie for Non-Yadav OBC Votes

A closer look at the demographic equations in UP makes it clear why there is such a fierce fight for the non-Yadav OBC vote.

Lucknow: The morning after Prime Minister Narendra Modi expanded his cabinet in Delhi, multiple hoardings came up across the poll-bound state of Uttar Pradesh. They carried photographs of the newly inducted ministers from OBC communities, with the caption, “Our gratitude to the respected PM Narendra Modi for inducting 28 OBC leaders in the Union cabinet.” Though caste has always been a factor while selecting ministers in India, this appears to be the first time that hoardings were erected just to advertise the matter.

There are 42-45% OBC voters in UP. Yadavs are around 9% of those, and have traditionally supported the Samajwadi Party. Parties continue to fight over the 32-35% of non-Yadav OBC votes. This is evident also from the fact that among the 28 newly inducted OBC ministers, only one is a Yadav.

A closer look at the demographic equations in UP makes it clear why there is such a fierce fight for the non-Yadav OBC vote.

A number of political analysts have predicted caste-wise voting preferences in the run-up to the 2022 assembly elections. They have made these predictions after studying voting patterns in previous elections, and keeping in mind contemporary politics in the state.

Brahmins are about 11% of UP’s population. Senior journalist Brijesh Shukla says, “Despite all the hype about Brahmins being upset with the Yogi [Adityanath] government, about 8% of them will vote for the BJP.”

Also read: AAP’s Sanjay Singh on Adityanath, BJP-BSP Equations and UP Polls

The Thakur community forms about 7% of the state’s population.

Alok Joshi, former managing editor of CNBC Awaaz, says, “Since UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath himself is a Thakur, about 6% of them are expected to go with the BJP.”

Voters from the Vaishya community are about 3.5% of the state’s population. They are considered to be traditional BJP voters. According to a post-poll study of the 2014 and 2019 elections by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), around 70% of members of the Vaishya community voted for the BJP in UP. Sharat Pradhan, a veteran journalist says, “This time also about 2% [out of the 3.5%] of them are expected to back the BJP.”

The non-Jatav Dalit vote is about 11% in UP. Dr Ravi Kant, assistant professor at Lucknow University, says, “The BJP has made inroads into these communities, 5-6% of them are expected to vote for the BJP.”

The Samajwadi Party (SP) also has a dedicated vote bank. There are 9% Yadav voters in UP. Vishwas Yadav, a social activist, says, “The Yadav community feels humiliated under the present regime and 7-8% of them are expected to go with the Samajwadi Party.” Muslims are 19% of Uttar Pradesh’s population. Hisam Siddique, a senior journalis,t says, “About 15% of the Muslims are expected to vote for the SP, because they feel that only Akhilesh Yadav can give a strong fight to the BJP.” In addition, 3-4% of the voters generally cross vote between the BJP and SP.

At the end of these, both the BJP and the SP are getting between 25% and 28% of the votes. Shamshad Khan, psephologist and managing director of PEACS News Service says, “The remaining 35% of non-Yadav OBC’s will decide the fate of the election. Whichever party gets more than 50% of the non-Yadav OBCs votes is likely to form the next government in UP. In addition to it they may get 5-10% floating votes of those voters who are undecided.”

This is why votes of non-Yadav communities like Kurmi, Rajbhar, Nishad, Lodh, Maurya-Kushwaha, Jat and others have become the strategic focal point for political parties.

Kurmi (Votes: 5%)

Kurmis are the second largest OBC community after Yadavs in UP. They hold sway over 16 districts of UP with around 12% population. These districts include Mirzapur, Bareilly, Sonbhadra, Unnao, Banda and others.

Since 2014, a large section of Kurmis have backed the Apna Dal/BJP alliance. Anupriya Patel, president of Apna Dal (S), a regional party, is considered the biggest mascot of Kurmi politics. She is in alliance with the BJP and became a minister in the Union cabinet in 2016. In the 2017 assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Apna Dal (S) won eight and two seats respectively. In the Modi government’s second term she was not given a ministry, but ahead of the elections, realising the importance of Kurmi votes, three Kurmi leaders – Anupriya Patel, B.L. Verma and Pankaj Chaudhary – were inducted into the cabinet in 2021.

Mulayam Singh Yadav had groomed Beni Verma as the Kurmi face of the SP. He was the second most powerful minister in Mulayam’s cabinet in 1993. His death had badly impacted the party. With regard to Kurmi votes, the demographic equation also goes against the SP. In most of the Yadav-dominated areas, Kurmis are few in number.

Also read: Caste and the Prospects of Modi and Yogi in the Uttar Pradesh Elections

Akhilesh Verma, an activist in Lucknow, says, “The SP has not made efforts to win back the Kurmis, and since they are inclined towards Hindutva, they find the BJP to be a natural ally.”

But there are contrary views as well. Hisam Siddiqui, senior journalist, says, “Anupriya Patel is not the leader of all Kurmis in UP. In districts of Bareilly, Faizabad, Bahraich and Ambedkar Nagar, Kurmis will vote for SP also.”

Rajbhar (Votes: 4%)

The Rajbhar community is around 4% of the population in UP, with a significant presence in eastern UP. They are followers of the 11th century king Suheldev, who defeated the nephew of Turkic conqueror Mahmud of Ghazni in Bahraich.

Om Prakash Rajbhar of the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) has tried to develop himself as the face of the community over the years. He formed his party in 2002. In 2017, his party contested eight seats in an alliance with the BJP and won four of them. He became cabinet mister in the state but later he broke off ties with the BJP.

He says, “In the 100 assembly seats of 24 districts of eastern UP, Rajbhars are the game changer. In 66 seats there are 40,000-80,000 Rajbhar votes, while 56 seats have 25,000-45,000 Rajbhars; among them 95% are with us.”

Om Prakash has formed the Bhagidari Sankalp Morcha, an alliance of 10 smaller regional parties. He is looking for an alliance with one regional party. Senior journalist Brijesh Shukla says, “If Akhilesh Yadav forges an alliance with the SBSP, his party will get some share of Rajbhar votes; otherwise the votes will be divided among the SBSP, BSP and BJP.”

Nishad (Votes: 4%)

Nishads are a community of fishermen who live along the Ganga, which flows through 26 districts of the state, and other riverine areaa. They have a sizeable presence in Gorakhpur, Maharajganj, Deoria, Mirzapur, Prayagraj, Varanasi etc. As per Hindu mythology, it was Nishadraj (the king of the fishermen) who sailed Rama’s boat in Shringverpur, Prayagraj to cross the Ganga on his way to exile.

Deputy chief minister Keshav Maurya has announced the installation of a huge statue of Nishadraj in Shringverpur, Prayagraj.

The dacoit-turned-politician Phoolan Devi was the biggest icon of the community. She was accused of killing about two dozen Thakurs in her village in the Kanpur Dehat district to avenge her gang rape. The Nishad Party led by Sanjay Nishad is an ally of the ruling BJP. Sanjay has announced that his party will install a statue of Phoolan Devi.

Another Nishad caste party is the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) from Bihar, which has entered the political fray in UP. Mukesh Sahani, the party chief, is a minister in the Bihar government. He was not allowed to install Phoolan Devi’s statue by the state government so he has announced a plan to distribute 50,000 statues in UP.

It is the Samajwadi Party, though, which lays the biggest claim to Phoolan Devi’s legacy. It was SP founder and former UP chief minister Mulayam who got Phoolan Devi released and gave her ticket before she became a Lok Sabha MP.

Also read: The Irony of BSP and SP Going From Being Anti-Brahmin to Now Wooing Them

On Phoolan Devi’s birth anniversary, August 10, 2021, the SP’s OBC Cell chief, Rajpal Kashyap, visited Phoolan Devi’s mother in her village. He announced a plan to build a memorial and install her statue when the SP comes to power.

There is an old demand from the Nishad community to be included in the list of Scheduled Castes. Despite being in power and in alliance with the Nishad Party, the BJP has not fulfilled the demand. Abhishek Nishad, a boatman at the Assi Ghat in Varanasi, says, “If BJP includes us in the Scheduled Caste list, only then will we vote for them, otherwise our options are open.”

Lodh (Votes: 3.5%)

Lodhs are the fourth biggest OBC community in UP. In 16 districts they are in a sizeable number. There are 20-22 Lodh MLAs in the UP assembly, mostly from the BJP.

Kalyan Singh was the tallest Lodh leader from the state. The honour he got posthumously from the BJP needs to be seen though a political lens too. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, defence minister Rajnath Singh and BJP president J.P. Nadda came to Lucknow to pay tribute after his death. Home minister Amit Shah visited Kalyan Singh’s hometown Atrauli to pay respects. Chief minister Adityanath followed his funeral procession for 60 km, from Aligarh to Narora in Bulandshahr. Deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya announced that six roads in six districts will be named after him.

Dr Ravi Kant says, “There is an old saying, if you love someone show it; and this is how the BJP has shown its love for the community. But due to the farmers’ unrest, it seems that the weaker sections of the Lodh community will go with the Samajwadi Party.”

Maurya/Kushwaha (Votes: 6%)

“Maurya-Kushwaha ne thaana hai, ab Sapa sarkar banana hai (The Maurya-Kushwahas have pledged to bring the SP to power this time)”: This is the new slogan by regional outfit Mahan Dal which has found resonance even at the offices of the Samajwadi Party in Lucknow. The Mahan Dal, led by Keshav Dev Maurya, is a caste-based party which has a pre-poll alliance with the SP. The Mahan Dal contested 71 seats in 2017 and got six lakh votes.

The Mauryas have a sizeable presence in eastern UP districts of Ghazipur, Varanasi, Baliya, Kushinagar, Jaunpur etc., while Kushwahas are in large numbers in Etawah, Mainpuri, Etah, Jalaun and Jhansi districts in central UP and Bundelkhand.

In the past, Mayawati pulled off votes from this community as she had tall leaders like Swami Prasad Maurya, Babu Singh Kushwaha and others in her fold. But now the BJP has also made inroads in the community, with leaders like Keshav Prasad Maurya and Swami Prasad Maurya.

Also read: Heading Towards the UP Polls, What Lies Ahead for Akhilesh Yadav?

Meanwhile Babu Singh Kushwaha, the head of the Jan Adhikar Party, a party of the Kushwaha community, is also in touch with Akhilesh Yadav for an alliance.

Senior journalist Sharat Pradhan says, “Maurya-Kushwahas, who voted en bloc for the BJP in the last assembly elections, are upset with the party. If Mahan Dal and Jan Adhikar Party both come together with the SP, it will make a difference.”

Jats (Votes: 2.5%)

Jats are about 14% of the population in 22 districts of western UP. In these districts, 22% Muslim and 16% Dalits (mainly Jatavs) populations also matter. Some of the Jat-dominated districts in Uttar Pradesh are Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Aligarh, Mathura and Hathras in the western part of the state.

Jats traditionally have been supporters of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh. In 1998, his son Ajit Singh formed the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). He garnered the support of Jats and that helped him become an MP eight times. After the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, the Jat-Muslim combination, the core base of the RLD, was divided and Jats backed the BJP.

According to the CSDS studies on the 2014 and 2019 elections, the BJP got 77% and 91% of the Jat votes respectively, while it had got only 7% of these votes in the 2012 elections. Ajit Singh and his son Jayant Chaudhary lost their seats in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 and 2019.

In the 2017 UP assembly election, RLD won only one seat out of 99 seats in western UP. After Ajit Singh’s death, Jayant Chaudhary became the party president. He is in alliance with the SP. Last year, the region witnessed one of the biggest farmers’ movements by the Bhartiya Kisan Union (BKU) against three farm Bills. In these protests, Muslims have participated with Jats in large numbers. Harnam Singh, a BKU leader, says, “The BJP is shaken by the farmers’ protests; Jayant Chaudhary has become the leader of 50% of Jats if not more.”

Heading Towards the UP Polls, What Lies Ahead for Akhilesh Yadav?

There are several obstacles in the Samajwadi Party’s way as it struggles to regain power.

Lucknow: Akhilesh Yadav stands on the rooftop of his rath (chariot) in Uttar Pradesh’s Unnao district, starting his campaign for the 2022 assembly elections in the state. He takes the microphone and announces that the BJP government’s days in UP are numbered. It is the same rath which he rode before the 2012 elections – and now with just six months left for fresh polls, Akhilesh is hoping it will help him to ride to power again. But the road is not smooth and to come to power, he will have to drive through several obstacles.

Hindutva challenge

One of the biggest challenges before him is to counter the BJP’s narrative of Hindutva politics in order to make his slogan “Baees mein bicycle (The cycle – Samajwadi Party’s election symbol – will come to power in 2022)” a reality. Politics in UP has seen a major paradigm shift since 2014. The BJP has emerged as an all-encompassing Hindutva party of Dalits, OBCs and ‘upper’-caste groups.

Some analysts point out that Akhilesh has failed to provide any counter political or ideological narrative to the BJP’s muscular Hindutva ideology. Akhilesh’s challenge in countering Hindutva is difficult. His father, Mulayam Singh, was called “Mulla Mulayam” by the saffron brigade way back in 1991.

“On the one hand, Akhilesh wants to erase the ‘Muslim Party’ tag to garner support of the middle-class Hindu voter, and on the other hand, he needs all the Muslim votes to come to power. It is like walking on a tight rope,” says Hisam Siddiqui, editor of the Urdu weekly Jadeed Markaz.

Muslim vote

Muslims, who comprise 19% of the state’s population, will play a crucial role for the Samajwadi Party (SP) in the assembly elections. There is a general perception that Muslims will rally behind Akhilesh. However, there are three more contenders for the Muslim vote: the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Congress and All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM).

There are rumours that Mayawati will field 100 Muslim candidates to make a dent into Muslim votes, but Shamil Shamsi, president of a Shia youth organisation Hussaini Tigers, says, “Mayawati has lost the trust of Muslims. They will vote for her tactically on those seats only where the BSP candidate is stronger than SP and Congress.”

AIMIM’s president, Asaduddin Owaisi, has declared that the party will contest 100 seats, but its performance in UP was terrible in 2017 when it got only 0.2% of the votes. Though its impact will be limited, the AIMIM may play spoilsport for the SP. Sharat Pradhan, a veteran journalist, says, “The Samajwadi Party shouldn’t underestimate Owaisi. Even 2-3% of votes can change the game.”

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The Congress has launched a Speak Up Minority campaign, where they virtually interacted with Muslims from different walks of life. Speaking at the campaign, Shahnawaz Alam, state president of the Congress minority cell, said, “Muslims have 19% vote share in UP while Yadavs are only 7%, so Muslims are the real game changer. SP got en bloc Muslim votes but worked only for Yadavs.” He claims that this campaign will change the game of minority politics in the state. But SP spokesperson Juhie Singh says, “Congress thinks of Muslims only at the time of elections, while we are always in contact with them. Akhilesh Yadav has good relations with people of the community.”

Getting non-Yadav OBCs back in the fold

The OBCs constitute more than 40% of the state’s population. This time, the BJP is banking on them to win the majority. In the recent expansion of the Union cabinet, out of seven ministers from UP, four are non-Yadav OBCs.

Since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, BJP has made a dent into the non-Yadav OBC votes of the SP. According to the Axis My India survey of the 2017 assembly elections, 58% of OBCs voted for the BJP while only 18% voted for the SP. However 80% of Yadavs voted for the SP. Varanasi-based socialist leader Subedar Singh says, “Netaji groomed various OBC leaders like Beni Prasad Verma, Ram Saran Das, Phoolan Devi, Raghuraj Shakya etc. across the state. Now there is no popular OBC leader in the party.”

But those close to Akhilesh say that the party has realised this fault and they are working on it. SP spokesperson Juhie Singh says, “Having identified it on the micro-level, we are communicating with those OBC communities who left us. We are also inducting them in the organisation and are trying to make alliances with local OBC parties.”

Akhilesh Yadav. Photo: Facebook/Akhilesh Yadav

Regional challenge

Western UP is also a weak link for the SP. The 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots divided Hindus and Muslims in the area. As a result, in the 2017 assembly elections, BJP bagged 78 seats in the region out of 99, while the SP had to settled for 16 seats only. The major castes and combinations that matter here are Muslims, Jats, Gujjars and Dalits. But a smaller Yadav population weakens the SP’s position.

The political scenario, however, is changing in western UP. The farmers’ movement led by the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) has brought the Jats and Muslims together in kisan panchayats, which has diluted the bitterness among the two communities. Jat farmers who voted en bloc for the BJP in recent elections are upset with the new farm laws.

These are the indications of a potential realignment of forces. The SP is in alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Akhilesh Yadav and Jayant Chaudhary have held several mahapanchayats in the region and are trying to revive the Jat-Muslim combination. Lucknow University assistant professor Ravikant says, “There is a lot of anger among people in the region due to the farm bills, hence most Jats will vote against BJP.”

Eastern UP

Eastern UP, comprising 102 assembly seats, is very crucial for the SP. In the 2012 assembly elections, SP performed well but in 2017, it got only 14 seats while the BJP won 77.

In UP there are 89 OBC castes, a sizeable number of which are in eastern UP. The three major caste-based parties of OBCs in UP have originated from here. Two of them, Apna Dal and the Nishad Party, are with the BJP, while the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party is looking for an alliance partner.

Senior journalist Brijesh Shukla says, “The key to victory for SP in eastern UP is to get back OBC votes and for that, an alliance with smaller OBC parties is the need of the hour.”

Without the patriarch

Sidelining of the party patriarch, Mulayam, and his brother Shivpal have adversely affected the party. “Neta ji had huge popularity among backwards and Muslims. He had a great connect and was accessible to every worker, Akhilesh is yet to match those qualities,” says Subedar Singh.

Besides Mulayam, another leader who used to do heavy lifting in the SP was Shivpal Yadav. Brijesh Shukla says, “Shivpal Yadav was Mulayam’s ‘Hanuman’. He would travel across the state, meet party workers, attend even small functions. His organisational capabilities were par excellence. Akhilesh has no substitute to him.”

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The USP of the SP has always been its street fights on public issues. That is missing now. There have been many incidents – from the Hathras rape case to the Sonbhadra firing on tribals – where Akhilesh chose to stay away. Ram Dutt Tripathi says, “While in opposition, SP always organised protests. Despite his old age, Mulayam used to lead bicycle marches against the Mayawati government.” But a close associate of Akhilesh’s says, “Akhilesh bhaiya has changed the strategy. He wants to protect his workers from the government’s vindictive designs and preserve their energy. At the time of elections we will fight with full force.”

The performance of the BSP and Congress will also impact the SP’s prospects. Professor Ravikant says, “The BJP in previous elections dented the non-Jatav Dalit votes of the BSP. If BSP fights strongly this time, it will be able to get back some of them. Similarly, there were traditional Congress voters of upper castes who voted for BJP last time. If Priyanka gets some of them back, that will again hurt the BJP.”

But there are analysts who think differently. Ram Dutt Tripathi says, “It is true if BSP fights strongly they will get back their non-Jatav Dalit votes. But if they become stronger, it may also attract Muslim votes which will help the BJP.”

The BJP, on the other hand has huge resources, well organised manpower and excellent infrastructure in the state. At every level, they are given specific tasks, which are monitored regularly by higher ups. The BJP, over the last few years, has developed faces from each caste who have a following in their respective communities, whether it is Yogi Adityanath, Keshav Maurya or Dinesh Sharma. There are more than 50 frontal organisations of the RSS which work indirectly for BJP’s victory. Besides that, BJP’s IT cell is stronger than any other political party in India.

The SP is considered to be the main challenger for the BJP. After the BJP, the SP has the biggest political network in the state. The party has a strong presence of its frontal organisations, like the Samajwadi Yuvjan Sabha, Samajwadi Chatra Sabha, Lohia Vahini and Mulayam Singh Youth Brigade. The party is also expected to get the biggest benefit of the anti-incumbency and the COVID-19 mismanagement by the government in the second wave.

Apart from this, the developmental work done by Akhilesh in his tenure gives his party an edge, Devendra Singh Dhama, a social activist in Baghpat says. “Construction of expressways, metros, creation of an IT city and then schemes like laptop distribution, kanyavidhyadhan, unemployment allowance are still remembered, while BJP on the other hand has not done even half of the work.”

SP spokesperson Juhie Singh says, “Akhilesh Yadav is a new age Samajwadi leader – he is a tech savvy, innovative, work oriented and is obsessed with infrastructure. He has brought in new concepts like gender budgeting. These are the qualities which make him the most desirable leader for the post of the chief minister.”