Tag: Akhilesh Yadav government

How Strong is Akhilesh Yadav’s New Electoral Formula?

Akhilesh Yadav may have lost four consecutive elections in UP since 2014, but he is strongly of the view that his new PDA formula can transform his party’s fortunes.

Chalking out a new strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Samajwadi Party (SP) national president Akhilesh Yadav is all set to tap into three groups of voters whom he has together classified as PDA: pichde (backward), Dalit and alpsankhyak (minority)

Akhilesh considers this a formidable combination to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance – rechristened as New India, Developed Nation, Aspiration of People of India (NDA) – at the crucial general election in 2024.

Political analysts believe that UP has 40-45% OBC, 20% Dalits and 19% Muslim voters accounting for around 78% of all voters in the state. Akhilesh’s target is to wean away a large chunk of this group to his fold.

He may have lost four consecutive elections in UP since 2014, yet he is strongly of the view that his new PDA formula can transform his party’s fortunes.

Notwithstanding his hopes, expectations and calculations, Akhilesh’s strategy appears to be facing some major challenges on the ground.

P of PDA means Other Backward Caste votes

According to political analysts, of the total OBC voters in UP, the Yadav community accounts for the majority with a 9% vote share. They are traditional voters of SP.

A post-poll study conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) said that 83% of Yadavs voted for the SP in the 2022 assembly elections. However, Akhilesh has struggled to secure the remaining 35% of the vote of non-Yadav OBC voters who have shifted to the BJP since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

His father and SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav had worked diligently to win over a large number of non-Yadav OBC voters by building up leaders like Beni Prasad Verma, Phoolan Devi and Raghuraj Shakya, among others. However, Akhilesh has not been able to carry forward that legacy effectively, leading to a decline in the SP’s non-Yadav OBC vote bank. 

In preparation for the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh Yadav did form alliances with various regional outfits representing these castes, resulting in a significant increase in the SP’s vote share from 21% in 2017 to 35% in 2022. But this failed to pay the desired dividends. However, now the challenge he faces is in maintaining the unity of the coalition of small parties.

Raj Pal Kashyap, state president of SP’s Backward Cell says, “We have already commenced yatras (rallies) for the OBC’s and have conducted seminars on caste census and are conducting 4 programs every day.”

Rajpal Kashyap addressing a gathering in Lucknow. Photo: Twitter/Pal Kashyap

Rajbhars

Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA formula suffered a significant blow when Om Prakash Rajbhar, the president of the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), declared his decision to join the NDA at a press conference in Lucknow on July 16th. Rajbhar attacked SP and said “Akhilesh Yadav intends to turn OBC’s into mere loaders instead of leaders, while the BJP is actively promoting leaders from OBC communities.”

The Rajbhars, said to account for 4% of the state population, are largely spread across Eastern UP and play a major role in the electoral politics of the state . They are largely represented by the SBSP.

Om Prakash Rajbhar with Union home minister Amit Shah. Photo: Twitter/@oprajbhar

In the 2017 assembly elections, Om Prakash Rajbhar was in alliance with the NDA and also became a minister in the Yogi Adityanath government. However, a political opportunist that he is, he switched loyalties to the SP just before the 2022 state assembly elections. 

His significance can be gauged from the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent him a congratulatory message on the wedding of his son in June last year. The message came in handy for Rajbhar to claim his clout over the ruling dispensation.

However, Raj Pal Kashyap believes that Om Prakash Rajbhar leaving the SP alliance will not have a substantial impact. He says, “Om Prakash Rajbhar’s absence will not harm us. We have influential Rajbhar leaders within our own ranks, such as Ram Achal Rajbhar and Sukhdeo Rajbhar’s son.”

Also read: What Does Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Return to NDA Mean for UP Politics?

Kurmi vote

Kurmi voters are estimated to constitute around 5% of the state’s population. Significantly, about 15% of these are concentrated in Eastern UP. According to the post-poll study conducted by CSDS, NDA received 66% of Kurmi and Koeri votes in the 2022 assembly elections.

In UP, Sone Lal Patel was an influential Kurmi leader who formed his own party. However, after his demise, his party split into two factions – one under Sone Lal Patel’s daughter Anupriya Patel which is allied with BJP; and the Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) led by Sonelal Patel’s other daughter Pallavi Patel, allied with the SP.

Akhilesh Yadav with Krishna Patel paying tribute to Sone Lal Patel on his birth anniversary. Photo: SP Office

SP allocated six seats to the Apna Dal(K) for the 2022 assembly elections. Pallavi Patel contested on the SP ticket and defeated Keshav Prasad Maurya, who currently serves as the deputy chief minister in the Adityanath government. But Apna Dal(K) could not win even a single seat and got only 0.278% votes. On the other hand, NDA’s ally Apna Dal (S) contested the assembly elections on 17 seats and won 12 of them.

Senior journalist Sharat Pradhan says, “SP lacks prominent Kurmi leaders. Despite Pallavi Patel’s significant victory against Keshav Maurya, Akhilesh does not appear to be giving her much importance. In sharp contrast, the BJP seems to recognize the significance of the Kurmi vote and has therefore given Anupriya Patel a berth in the Modi government.”

The significance of the Kurmi community can be observed from the fact that during this recent UP visit on July 7, Modi made it a point to visit the home of Pankaj Choudhary, a prominent Kurmi leader who is a six-time MP from Maharajganj. Currently, he is serving as a MoS in the central government.

Maurya, Kushwaha and Shakya

The Maurya, Kushwaha and Shakya communities constitute around 6% of the state’s population. According to the CSDS post-poll study, the BJP received 64% of the votes from these communities, while the SP could obtain only 22% in the 2022 assembly elections. Political analysts suggest that it seems difficult for SP to recapture this vote bank from the BJP. 

With a view to wooing these communities in the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh adopted a two-fold strategy. Firstly, he struck an alliance with Keshav Dev Maurya who runs a regional outfit called Mahan Dal. But this time Keshav Dev has already declared his unconditional support to Mayawati’s BSP.

Akhilesh’s second strategy was to bring veteran Maurya community leader Swami Prasad Maurya into SP, who joined the party just before the 2022 assembly elections. Maurya however created much embarrassment for Akhilesh by making certain controversial remarks about Ramcharitmanas. 

Senior journalist Brijesh Shukla said, “Swami Prasad Maurya’s lost his own seat in Kushinagar, his influence is limited. His recent statements concerning the Ramcharitmanas are causing more harm than good for the Samajwadi Party.” 

Jat 

The SP faces a significant challenge in the Jat-dominated Western UP. It is difficult for SP to perform well independently in the region due to the limited presence of Yadav voters. In the 2022 assembly elections, Akhilesh Yadav played his cards well by aligning with Rashtriya Lok Dal’s (RLD) Jayant Chaudhary, the grandson of Chaudhary Charan Singh, who has been among the tallest Jat leaders from the state. 

However, Jat vote dropped from 57% in the 2017 assembly elections to 33% in the 2022 elections after SP’s alliance, according to CSDS post-poll study.

Ram Dutt Tripathi, a former BBC correspondent, says, “2022 election was a significant opportunity for Akhilesh and Jayant to attract the Jat votes, especially given the large-scale farmers’ movement in Western UP and the sympathy factor for Jayant among the Jats due to his father Ajit Singh’s demise. Despite the circumstances, if the Jats did not vote for the SP alliance, it seems very difficult for the Jats to come back to the SP fold.” Meanwhile, speculation is rife that the BJP may succeed in its subtle moves to woo Jayant Chaudhary.

 PDA’s ‘D’ stands for Dalit

Coming to the ‘D’ of Akhilesh’s PDA, Uttar Pradesh has 22% Dalit voters. The SP is also focusing on securing their support. 

The party’s biggest asset is R.K. Choudhary, a veteran Dalit leader and former associate of BSP founder Kanshiram. He is visiting Dalit-dominated villages to spread the word that SP is the true well-wisher of Dalits. He says, “We are raising concerns related to caste-based reservations, social justice and equality.” 

RK Choudhary addressing a gathering in Hardoi. Photo: RK Choudhary

SP witnessed a slight increase in the Dalit vote share in the 2022 assembly elections. The Jatav votes increased by 6%, while non-Jatav votes increased by 12%. However, Akhilesh faces three significant challenges in securing the Dalit vote.

Firstly, the sympathy factor for Mayawati among Jatavs. Ramraj, a grocery store owner in Banda says, “The Jatav community carries a significant sense of remorse and deep concern for Mayawati. In the forthcoming election, even those Jatavs who had previously parted ways with the BSP are returning, while the existing supporters are steadfastly standing alongside Behenji.”

Secondly, the threat SP is facing is BJP’s success at capturing a good chunk of non-Jatav Dalits since the 2014 elections and its bid to increase its vote share among Jatavs as well. Asim Arun former police commissioner of Kanpur and now minister of social welfare in the UP government says, “We are continuously working among the Dalits, and giving them leadership positions in the party. Moreover, our welfare schemes like the free housing scheme, ration and construction of toilets have consolidated their support for BJP.”

Thirdly, there is a longstanding conflict between Jatavs and Yadavs in the villages, which has led to Jatavs not aligning with the SP. However, Chandra Shekhar Choudhary, the state chief of SP’s Ambedkar Vahini argues, “The fight for power is no longer between different factions of PDA but rather against the NDA.”

PDA’s ‘A’ means alpasankhyak (minority)

 Coming to alpsankhyaks, Akhilesh Yadav is relying heavily on the support of the minority community which has been a core base of the party ever since its inception. In UP, there are approximately 19% Muslim voters. 

According to a post-poll study by Axis My India, 82% of Muslims voted for the SP alliance in the 2022 assembly elections, even surpassing the Muslim vote share the SP-BSP-RLD alliance received in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, this vote bank is now facing threats as the BSP and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) performed well in some places in the recent civic elections held in May this year. 

SP spokesperson Abbas Haider asserts, “There is a significant difference between civic elections and Lok Sabha. When there is an election to change the government at the national level, the entire Muslim community will stand unitedly with Akhilesh Yadav.”

Abbas Haider with supporters Photo: Twitter/Abbas Haider

BSP does present a notable challenge to the Muslim vote bank of the SP. Mayawati is trying to regain her Muslim support and has strategically included prominent Muslim leaders like Imran Masood, Guddu Jamali, and Afzal Ansari. 

Brijesh Shukla says “New equations are emerging in Western Uttar Pradesh. While the Jatav community is already with Mayawati, a considerable number of Muslim voters, who previously supported the SP, are now shifting their support towards the BSP.”

No doubt, there have been some instances of Muslim disillusionment with Akhilesh Yadav but it is quite evident that the community has very few options other than voting en bloc with SP.

While there appears to be sufficient logic behind Akhilesh’s latest strategy of building a PDA coalition, but a lot has to be done on the ground for it to be successful.

 Aman is an independent journalist.

Man Dies in Police Custody in UP, Kin Says He Was Tortured

Satya Prakash Shukla, 50, and his sons were detained by police on Monday night in connection with a theft of Rs 26 lakh.

Amethi: A man detained in connection with a case of theft died in police custody after allegedly consuming poison, officials said on Tuesday.

Satya Prakash Shukla, 50, and his sons were detained by police on Monday night in connection with a theft of 26 lakh rupees from a bank employee in Peeparpur area, Additional Superintendent of Police Dayaram said.

Shukla allegedly consumed poison and was rushed to a hospital in Sultanpur, where he died during treatment, he said. However, family members of Shukla alleged that he was tortured by police and killed in custody.

Meanwhile, on the directives of Superintendent of Police, Sultanpur, Himanshu Kumar, a case was registered at the Kotwali police station against unknown police personnel under various sections of the IPC, including Section 302 (punishment for murder).

The Amethi ASP, however, termed the allegations baseless.

Also read: Andhra Pradesh: Unemployment Drives Construction Worker to Suicide

“When police had gone to question the accused person in the case pertaining to the loot of Rs 26 lakh, he went inside his house and consumed poison,” he said.

A probe is underway in the matter. Later in the evening, a senior UP government official in Lucknow said,

“The facts, which have emerged in the probe, suggest that the doctor of the hospital where he was first admitted in a report had said about consuming a poisonous substance. The doctor has included this point in his report. As per the post-mortem report, there is no injury mark on the body.”

Reacting to the incident, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav tweeted, “The allegations of the family members of Satya Prakash Shukla that he was administered third-degree torture should be probed in an impartial manner. Otherwise, the remaining trust of people in the BJP government will also vanish.”

UP Government’s Caste Certificate Order Is ‘Unconstitutional’: Centre

The state had directed officials to issue SC certificates to 17 OBC castes.

New Delhi: The Centre has directed the Uttar Pradesh government to stop including 17 OBC castes in the Scheduled Castes (SC) list. Speaking in the Rajya Sabha, the Union minister for social justice and empowerment Tawar Chand Gehlot said that including OBC castes in the SC list is within the domain of parliament and called the UP government’s move “unconstitutional”.

According to a report in the Indian Express, the BJP government in UP had directed officials to issue SC certificates to 17 OBC castes “after examination and based on documents in accordance with the rules” after citing a 2017 observation of the Allahabad high court.

The move comes a day after BSP chief Mayawati slammed the Adityanath government for the order.“It’s a fraud with people belonging to these 17 castes as they won’t receive the benefits of any of the categories as the UP government will not treat them as OBCs,” she said at a press conference on Monday.

Mayawati also stated that like the previous SP government, the Adityanath government passed the direction to “deceive” these castes as they would lose their benefits under the OBC category and be counted under the general category – since as per Article 341, they cannot be considered as SCs through a state order.

She reiterated her old demand to the Centre of inclusion of 17 castes into the SC list, but only through the expansion of the quota for Dalits.

Previous attempts

A June 24 letter from the UP Social Welfare Department, referring to a 2017 order of the Allahabad high court, directed district authorities to issue caste certificates as per that order after scrutiny of documents.

This is the third time that a UP state government has initiated a move to include OBC castes into the SC list. Previously, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s government in 2004 had attempted to amend the UP Public Services Act to include 17 OBC castes in the SC category. However, the move was repealed by the Allahabad high court owing to the fact that the state had not consulted the Centre – which solely has the right to declare any caste as SC.

Also read: The Way Ahead for a Decimated SP-BSP in Uttar Pradesh

Similarly, in 2016, the Akhilesh Yadav government had cleared a proposal to include 17 sub-castes in the SC category but the matter was rejected by the Centre.

The Adityanath government’s rationale for the move is that the 17 OBC castes figure very low on the social and economic indices and that being in the other backward class category had not improved their standard of living.

Electoral concerns

The move was intended to leave greater space in the OBC quota for the remaining caste groups. Since there is more competition among OBC groups for reservation benefits, if the 17 castes are moved to the list of SCs, they will face less competition because the SC population is smaller.

But SC groups fear that such a move might impact their quota as the new entrants will consume their share if the reservation limit is not expanded.

While the Allahabad court order came in March 2017, days after the Adityanath government assumed power, the letter was sent 27 months later – supposedly keeping in mind electoral concerns. In the run-up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP would not have liked to risk alienating the existing SC groups.

Opposition leaders have alleged that the government’s directive was aimed at making political gains in the coming by-polls to 11 assembly seats.

Patanjali Food Park: How Ramdev Used Pull-Out Threat to Push for More Concessions

The yoga guru-turned corporate king is observing double standards by calling for probity in public life while grabbing favours from governments to expand his business empire.

Yoga guru Baba Ramdev might have cried his lungs out for probity in public life and he still does not tire of raising his voice against black money and irregularities in government working. But when it comes to grabbing favours from the state, he does not mind observing double standards.

A case in glaring demonstration is the allotment of 455 acres of prime land along the Yamuna Expressway in Greater Noida in the name of setting up a giant food park. Using his ‘Yadav’ identity, the saffron-clad yoga guru-turned-corporate king got the original allotment for his multi-billion Patanjali group on special concessional terms during the tenure of the previous Akhilesh Yadav government. And today, he is virtually blackmailing the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) government to get more concessions and privileges.

He is also eyeing a Rs 150 crore subsidy that the Union government has offered to anyone setting up mega food parks across the country.

One tweet by the Baba’s Man Friday, Acharya Balkrishnal has literally brought the entire Uttar Pradesh government into submission. And the Adityanath regime is all set to sign on the dotted line, with Ramdev dictating the terms, with special concessions and favours, well beyond what he had already received from the Yadav dispensation.

What brought an otherwise “tough” UP chief minister Adityanath to fall in line with Ramdev was not just a threat by Balkrishna that he would shift his proposed investment from UP to another state if the terms laid down by Patanjali were not conceded by the state government. That Adityanath would give in so easily to a threat was inconceivable. Evidently, it was also a strong word from BJP president Amit Shah, whom Ramdev met recently.

Strangely, neither Adityanath nor his team of dealing bureaucrats cared to raise the most pertinent question – which Indian state was ready to dole out a huge chunk of 455 acres? And that too on the borders of the national capital.

The fact of the matter is that such a huge parcel of land was given away to Patanjali for a song. The group was required to shell out the official ‘circle rate’ for only 20% of the land. The Akhilesh government granted Patanjali a special concession of 25% in the cost of land for the remaining 80% chunk (about 370 acres). Under the rules, such a concession was available only to the IT industry and that too for setting up a big software technology park . However, Ramdev managed to get the Akhilesh regime to bend the rules for his company

The revision in the terms of land allotment with the freebies and concessions are understood to be high on the agenda of the next meeting of the UP cabinet scheduled on June 12. Credit: PTI

While Ramdev and Balkrishna might be busy blaming the bureaucracy for the “delay” in their “investment” plans, the fact remains that this special concession in the price of land was systematically pushed by none other than the then UP chief secretary Deepak Singhal, now chargesheeted in another matter.

As per the original terms of allotment, Patanjali was allowed to sublease only upto 20% (91 acres) of the land for a period of not more than seven years. But Ramdev is understood to have insisted on relaxation in the original terms of allotment.

The urgency for subleasing 20% of the land arose because of the subsidy of Rs 150 crore offered by the Centre. The subsidy could be given only to the company that was setting up the food park. However, in this case, the original allotment of land in 2016 was made in the name of Patanjali Ayurved, Haridwar, while the proposal for setting up a food park was made by Patanjali Food and Herbal Park Noida Pvt Ltd, two independent corporate entities.

What Ramdev was demanding from the UP government was permission to transfer 60 acres of land in the name of Patanjali Food and Herbal Park Noida Pvt. Ltd. In addition, he wanted that while he set up his food park on 30 acres of land, the remaining 30 acres out of this packet should be allowed to be subleased further to whoever Ramdev wanted anytime later. That is where lies the first catch. Ramdev does not want the first transfer of 30 acres from his one company to the other to be treated as a “sub-lease”.

The second catch lies in Ramdev’s next demand for another sub-lease of 56 acres, which is precisely 20% of the remaining 370 acres’ parcel of land. That clearly gives Ramdev the freedom to play with 116 acres of priceless land along the Yamuna Expressway as against his original entitlement of 91 acres. Once the restriction of seven years on the sub-lease gets lifted, as per Patanjali’s demand, Ramdev would be sitting over a goldmine. And for all you know, the sub-leasing alone could get him the bulk of his much-proclaimed promised investment of Rs 1,410 crore in UP.

Yet the Adityanath government is working overtime to dole out everything that Ramdev desires, ostensibly because of Balkrishna’s threat to pull out their proposed investment from UP. Significantly, this investment figures prominently in Adityanath’s list of expected investments tapped through his own initiative – the much-hyped Investor’s Summit in February last. The revision in the terms of allotment with the freebies and concessions are understood to be high on the agenda of the next meeting of the state cabinet scheduled on June 12.