Tag: SP-SBSP

Interview | ‘Fully Assured Caste Census Demands Will Be Met by BJP’: O.P. Rajbhar

July 16 saw Rajbhar’s return to the National Democratic Alliance. Angry with the Samajwadi Party, the veteran politician says he will continue to fight for the marginalised within the NDA fold.

Om Prakash Rajbhar is a member of the 18th legislative assembly of Uttar Pradesh. He represents the Zahoorabad assembly constituency since 2017. Though his party, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, has been active in electoral politics since 2002, it was only in 2017, when it aligned with the Bharatiya Janata Party, that it got its first breakthrough and won four out of the eight seats it contested.

Rajbhar became a cabinet minister on March 19, 2017, in the Adityanath-led BJP government, though he was later sacked from the cabinet due to anti alliance activities. For the 2022 assembly elections in the state, he aligned with Samajwadi Party and his party won six out of the 17 seats it contested.

July 16 saw Rajbhar’s return to the National Democratic Alliance, after months of speculation regarding his future plans since breaking up with the Samajwadi Party last year. Rajbhar is known for his outspoken nature and in conversation with The Wire, he covered future plans, his reasons for returning to the NDA after more than four years, his demands from the alliance and the future of his party legislator Abbas Ansari.

Edited excerpts follow.

People want to know why you change parties repeatedly.

Om Prakash Rajbhar is a voice that constantly raises the issue of the rights of the oppressed, the marginalised, the Dalits, the backward and the minority communities in Uttar Pradesh – both on the streets and in the assembly. SBSP [the acronym for his party] is always ready to align with any party that shares the goal of granting these communities their rights.

The primary objective of Om Prakash Rajbhar’s political career has been to ensure the rights of these people, and the fight will continue until they receive their due rights.

Whether we remain in opposition or in power, if someone sees our struggle as “party switching,” that genuinely doesn’t bother us.

What changed since the 2022 assembly elections that you were compelled to align with the same party, BJP, which you used to criticise and talked of removing from power?

Our primary priority was to be in the opposition, and we do not deny that.

At that time, due to certain policies of the BJP that went against our principles, we were seen as making efforts to prevent them from coming into power, and we aligned with the Samajwadi Party. However, it has been the SP’s history to deceive and exploit the oppressed, marginalised, Dalit, backward, and minority communities by simply taking their votes and focusing solely on the development of their own family and kin.

Socialism holds no significance for them.

Conversely, the Bhartiya Janata Party understood the seriousness of our concerns, and keeping in mind the interests of the marginalised communities, the Dalits, the backward classes, and the minorities in Uttar Pradesh, they were willing to accept our demands. Due to this, we were ready to join the National Democratic Alliance.

The successful leadership of our honourable prime minister [Narendra Modi], who raised the flag of India as a distinct entity in the world has also helped us in reaching our decision of joining the NDA. This fills all Indians with a sense of pride. Moreover, the numerous welfare schemes implemented in the country also contributed significantly to our decision of choosing the NDA over the opposition.

What do you think led to your alliance’s failure in the 2022 elections?

In the 2022 assembly elections, the SBSP formed an alliance with the Samajwadi Party to work towards the welfare and rights of the oppressed, marginalised, Dalit, backward, and minority communities. Thanks to our alliance, the Samajwadi Party went from winning 47 seats to 111 seats.

However, after joining forces with the Samajwadi Party, we realised that while they talk about issues concerning Dalits and marginalised communities, they deceive people of these communities entirely. When it comes to giving political representation and sharing power, the Samajwadi Party sidelines these communities.

Despite this, the SBSP faithfully followed the principles of the alliance and consistently tried to persuade Akhilesh Yadav to understand the right perspectives. Unfortunately, Akhilesh Yadav disregarded my advice – which looked at the interests of the oppressed and marginalised – and this led to the breakup of the alliance between the Samajwadi Party and the SBSP. This incident clearly highlights that Samajwadi Party supremo Akhilesh Yadav cannot tolerate valid criticism. The saying ‘meetha-meetha gup-gup, kadwa-kadwa thoo-thoo (‘when it’s sweet, eat it, when it is bitter, throw it)’ fits this situation.

Akhilesh Yadav and O.P. Rajbhar. Photo: Twitter/@VishvanathYad11

Akhilesh Yadav also talks about the PDA [an acronym for pichre (backward), Dalit and alpashankhak (minority)], which can be seen as addressing the concerns of marginalised communities. What is your opinion on this?

Akhilesh Yadav’s mention of PDA is merely a deceptive tactic. He is deceiving the people of Uttar Pradesh and attempting to mislead them. It is an attempt to deceive the people of Uttar Pradesh, especially the marginalised communities. If anyone has deceived and cheated the backward classes, Dalits, and minorities the most, it is the Samajwadi Party.

Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA slogan will ultimately be exposed as a hollow promise, and in the upcoming 2024 elections, the people of Uttar Pradesh will completely reject his bicycle symbol.

You had taken a strong stand on caste-based Census. Will your stance remain the same even after aligning with the BJP?

I have been advocating for a caste-based Census and Samajik Nyay Samiti [a social justice committee] for the past 20 years. The demand for free and uniform education, and free healthcare, has been my consistent stand for the past 20 years. The stand of the SBSP will remain the same as it has been before.

However, now that we are a part of the NDA, we will discuss these issues with all the constituent and allied parties of the NDA in order to address them in the future. But the SBSP will continue to push for the caste-based Census and the Samiti, which have been our party’s demands from the beginning.

Dara Singh Chauhan has rejoined the party now that you have returned to your old alliance. Are we going to see more people joining soon?

Samajwadi Party talks of PDA and in Dara Singh Chauhan’s return to BJP, the Samajwadi Party has lost its first PDA wicket.

The way the SP talks about Savarnas gives the impression that they do not desire the votes of the upper caste community. In such a scenario, upper caste people within the SP should distance themselves from the party. In the future, many leaders and legislators within the SP will bid farewell to the party, just like Dara Singh Chauhan did.

What did you discuss during your meeting with Amit Shah? What strategy will your alliance adopt for the 2024 elections?

There were open and frank discussions with the honourable Union home minister Amit Shah ji. There was agreement on several issues, and there will continue to be discussions and consensus on various matters in the future as well.

As for the strategy for the 2024 elections, let it remain a strategy. However, let me say that due to the alliance of the SBSP with the BJP, the opposition has nothing left in Uttar Pradesh. In the 2024 elections, SBSP-BJP will secure victory on all 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh under the successful leadership of the honourable Prime Minister of India Shri Narendra Modi ji. Narendra Modi ji will become the prime minister of India for the third consecutive term.

Considering that you have emphasised on social justice and the fight for the rights of marginalised communities, and have spoken against the BJP on these issues, are you now confident that the rights of the marginalised and oppressed will be honoured?

Yes, I reaffirm that I have previously stated that during our [party national chief secretary Arvind Rajbhar and O.P. Rajbhar] meeting with the honourable Union home minister Amit Shah ji, there were discussions as well as agreement on various matters.

Therefore, it is evident that in the future, the ongoing fight of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party for the rights of the marginalised communities, including Dalits, backward classes, and minorities, will continue. Whether it is about the Samajik Nyay Samiti, inclusion of Bhar-Rajbhar caste in the Scheduled list, or the issue of caste-based Census, we are fully assured that our demands will be heard and fulfilled.

Congress Rajya Sabha MP Pramod Tiwari has said that no one can guess where you are today and where you will be tomorrow. How would you respond to this?

Let’s not even talk about Pramod Tiwari. Coming to Congress, the party doesn’t have any presence as far as UP is concerned.

Congress, despite being a national party, has become insignificant in Uttar Pradesh compared to the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party. Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party holds a greater number of MLAs than Congress.

Therefore, Pramod Tiwari’s statement only confirms that Congress has completely lost its ground in Uttar Pradesh. It is evident that many Congress leaders are making such statements due to their own perplexity.

Congress’s Pramod Tiwari. Photo: Twitter/@pramodtiwari700

How do you see the opposition parties like SP, BSP and Congress performing in UP?

The Samajwadi Party has been deceiving and exploiting the backward, Dalit, and minority communities. Keeping that in mind, the Samajwadi Party is now leaning towards becoming Samaptwadi Party (extinct party).

As for the Congress, it has completely lost its ground in Uttar Pradesh and has no support left.

While the Bahujan Samaj Party has its vote bank, it will not be able to stand against the NDA in the 2024 elections.

Speaking about the Aam Aadmi Party, it is thoroughly entrenched in corruption, which has caused significant distress to the people of Delhi. Many of their prominent leaders and ministers have even been sent to jail. In Uttar Pradesh, the alliance between the SBSP and the BJP has made the survival of these parties almost impossible.

If the main issues on which you have aligned with the BJP are not fulfilled, shall we once again see O.P. Rajbhar leaving the NDA alliance?

There are several issues on which discussions have taken place and agreements have been reached. Even in the future, there will be discussions on many such issues, and consensus will be reached on them. Therefore, when there is consensus on issues, there is no question of leaving the Bharatiya Janata Party alliance. Those who are making such statements are completely unsettled by the alliance between the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party. They are starting to see their own defeat even before it happens.

How many seats do you expect your party to get in the coalition?

When there is a consensus on several key issues and agreements have been reached, the allocation of seats becomes less significant. However, it is worth noting that the inclusion of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party in the alliance with Bharatiya Janata Party carries its own importance. The allocation of seats is a mere formality, and the final decision regarding seats will be made through discussions between our leadership and the top leadership of BJP. 

Will all the leaders of your party also be part of the NDA? Including Abbas Ansari?

It is important to note that no specific individual from our party has joined the National Democratic Alliance. The coalition formed is between the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and the BJP, and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party has become a part of the NDA.

As for Abbas Ansari, he was part of the coalition between the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party during the 2022 state assembly elections. Under that coalition, the Samajwadi Party fielded 12 candidates on the symbol of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party. Upholding the principles of coalition unity, we supported those candidates under the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party symbol. Abbas Ansari is one of those candidates.

Now Abbas Ansari has to decide whether he will remain with us or decides to go.

Should we now consider this as O.P. Rajbhar’s final decision? Will SBSP now continue to be with the BJP?

Currently, we are a part of the NDA. It has been the history of the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party that whenever we have been in an alliance, we have remained steadfast and committed to it with full strength and honesty.

Would you like to share your hopes regarding 2024 Lok Sabha elections?

The alliance between the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party has ensured that there is no opposition left in Uttar Pradesh. In the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all the NDA will work together to win all 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. With even more seats than the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, we will secure a massive majority and ensure the formation of a government and contribute in putting honourable Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi in office for the third consecutive term.

Why Is Akhilesh Yadav Teaming up With Smaller Parties With Little Statewide Influence?

The significance of these parties can be understood by looking their region-wise performance. It is clear that whoever manages the UP polls seat by seat will win the election.

On December 14, the Dharmapur grounds in Jaunpur district of eastern Uttar Pradesh were packed. The occasion was the sixth leg of the Vijay Rath Yatra being led by Akhilesh Yadav.

Waving flags of red, green, yellow and blue, supporters from smaller parties like the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), the Janwadi Socialist party (JSP), the Mahan Dal and others shouted Samajwadi Party’s new slogan, ‘Pichhdon ka inquilaab hoga, 22 mein badlaav hoga’. ‘The revolution of the backwards is coming, change is in the offing.’

Once it was his turn to speak, Akhilesh took the microphone and said, “Take a look for yourself. How many colours of flags are with us. You will not find so many colours of flags anywhere else. With all these colours, we have made a multi-coloured bouquet. Now, it has become a fight of multi-colour alliances verses the monochromatic mindset of saffron.”

Despite defeats in the 2017 and 2019 elections, when Akhilesh Yadav was in alliance with Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party respectively, he continues to remain upbeat about alliances – but with a twist.

This time, he is creating a formidable coalition by bringing together small caste-based parties from all over Uttar Pradesh. The strategy behind this seems to be that Akhilesh Yadav, since 2014, has been facing charges of being partisan against non-Yadav Other Backward Classes and is keen to shed this image. 

The Jaunpur Vijay Rath Yatra. Photo: By arrangement

The Axis My India survey for the 2017 assembly elections shows that 58% OBCs voted for Bharatiya Janata Party, while only 18% voted for SP. But the percentage of Yadavs who voted for SP was 80%.

Also read: Turnout at Akhilesh Yadav’s Rallies Will Boost SP. But Is It Enough to Dethrone BJP?

This is why Akhilesh is trying to ally with smaller parties representing non-Yadav OBCs who constitute 35% of the OBC population in Uttar Pradesh.

Ram Dutt Tripathi, former BBC correspondent, says, “The biggest challenge for Akhilesh to win this election is to break the image of SP being for Yadavs only.”

Agreeing with the idea, Brijesh Shukla, another veteran journalist says, “During the past governments of SP, a number of local leaders were accused of land grabbing, pooling of tenders and hooliganism. This time, he needs to assure voters that this will not be repeated. Yadavs will not be first among equals.” 

Some suggest that Akhilesh is using the successful formula perfected by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav by projecting himself as the leader of all backward communities. Preeti Choudhari, a professor of political science at Bhimrao Ambedkar Central University in Lucknow says this formula could pay dividends for Akhilesh.

“Mulayam Singh had a bouquet of leaders of various castes and they would take care of caste equations all over Uttar Pradesh. But later these caste leaders formed their own parties. Now Akhilesh is trying to align with them in hopes of getting the vote of their community,” Choudhari said.

Akhilesh Yadav greets supporters. Photo: Twitter/@yadavakhilesh

Percentage game

Akhilesh appears to now realise that elections cannot be won only with support from Muslims and Yadavs. To win, SP needs to increase its vote percentage in the state. When SP came to power in 2012 the party got a 29.7% vote share, while in the 2017 assembly elections the BJP got 40% vote share. Muslims and Yadavs, the core voters of SP lead it to a 24-25% vote share. Earlier the SP used to bank on the local candidates to get additional 7-8% of votes but now even that is not sufficient. 

Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder-director of the polling agency C Voter says, “Since 2014, the threshold in UP has changed. To win the election a party needs to get 40% vote share. There is a glass ceiling that is 30%, which SP has already reached. Akhilesh is unable to crack that. His idea is that his own base is 25%, and with these smaller parties his base may increase by 15% and he will form the government with 40%.”

However, there are views to the contrary as well which suggest that SP can form a government even with 36-38% vote share. 

Shamshad Khan, psephologist and managing director of the PEACS News Service says, “If SP gets 30% vote share, they may stop at 100-120 seats but with these parties coming together their vote share goes up to 34% and they will get 200 seats. And once they are able to reach 36% they can get around 250 seats because then BJP’s vote share of last time will also start coming down.

Family equations

The latest alliance partner of Akhilesh is his estranged uncle Shivpal Yadav who heads the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party. On December 16, this year, after an hour-long meeting with Shivpal at his home, Akhilesh tweeted a photo with him and formally announced the alliance.

It was the sixth party with which Akhilesh had forged an alliance in a month’s time. Shivpal has significant influence in the Yadav heartland, including the districts of Etawah, Mainpuri, Kannauj and Firozabad.

Alok Joshi, former CNBC Awaaz head and senior journalist says, “ Shivpal has worked closely with Mulayam Singh Yadav for years. His tremendous organisational capabilities will definitely benefit SP.”

The strongest ally

 The RLD is the strongest ally of Akhilesh Yadav. It is a regional party of Western UP with a strong vote base in the Jat community. It was founded by Chaudhary Charan Singh, a Jat farmer leader and a former prime minister. His son Ajit Singh, an eight-time MP and the president of the party died during the second wave of COVID-19.

The party is at present led by his son Jayant Chaudhary. The Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013 were a major setback for the party. It sharply divided society and their traditional Jat vote shifted to the BJP. 

According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies’  studies, in 2014 and 2019 elections, BJP got 77% and 91% of Jat votes respectively, while it had got only 7% of these votes in the 2012 elections. The RLD could only win one seat in the 2017 assembly elections and secured only 1.78% votes in the state.

The party seems to have regained its ground in the region and the farmers’ movement has provided a ground to Jats and Muslims to come together. 

Also read: Not Just a Farmers’ Stir But a Democratic Pushback Against Uncaring Rule

Political analysts feel that a major chunk of Jats who shifted to BJP after the Muzaffarnagar riots can be back with the party.

According to estimates by political parties, there are about 14% of Jats in around 20 districts of Western UP. The RLD has a good influence in Baghpat, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Moradabad, Saharanpur and Shamli.

Akhilesh is thus banking on Jayant’s popularity in Western UP.

Sharat Pradhan, a senior journalist, says, “After two decades I can see the RLD in its old form as a formidable force in Western UP. RLD’s own vote base will certainly increase in the area.” 

SBSP

The SBSP is a caste-based regional outfit representing the Rajbhar community and some other backward castes. It was founded in 2002 by its current president Om Prakash Rajbhar. According to estimates by political analysts, the Rajbhar community is around 4% in UP. They are mainly found in 70-80 seats of eastern UP in which, in 35 constituencies, there are 10,000-40,000 Rajbhar votes.

Om Prakash Rajbhar has influence in districts of Azamgarh, Ballia, Mau, Mirzapur and Ghazipur. The party was in alliance with BJP in the assembly elections of 2017, when it won four seats and got around six lakh votes (0.70%). This time they have formed an alliance with the Samajwadi Party. 

Sharat Pradhan says, “The Rajbhar community voted en bloc for BJP in 2017, but may shift this time to the SP alliance not just because of the SBSP, but also with strong Rajbhar leaders from BSP like Ram Achal Rajbhar and Sukhdev Rajbhar joining SP.” 

Also read: The UP Assembly Polls Are Almost Here – But Where Is BSP? 

Akhilesh Yadav and Om Prakash Rajbhar. Photo: By arrangement

JSP

JSP was founded and led by Sanjay Chauhan, a backward community leader from Ghazipur.

The party represents mainly the OBC Nonia community of Uttar Pradesh.

According to estimates by political analysts, they are around 2% Nonias in the state. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election the JSP chief fought on SP’s symbol and got around 5 lakh votes. To tackle JSP’s influence, BJP has allied with Prithiviraj Janshakti Party’s Chandan Singh Chauhan, who represents the same community.

Ravikant, assistant professor of Lucknow University says, “Sanjay Chauhan has good influence among Nonia community in Varanasi, Chandauli, Ghazipur and Bhadohi. It will certainly be beneficial for Akhilesh.”

Mahan Dal 

Mahan Dal is a caste-based regional party representing Maurya, Kushwaha and Shakya OBC communities. It is led by Keshav Dev Maurya and was founded in 2008.

According to estimates by political analysts, these communities are around 6%. Keshav Dev Maurya enjoys the support of backward castes in districts like Kasganj, Farrukhabad, Etah, Badaun and Fatehpur.

Hisam Siddique, a senior journalist, says, “In the last few elections a major chunk of these communities had supported BJP. But their alliance will help the SP. Keshav Dev Maurya has already taken out a Yatra in around a dozen districts to mobilise his community.” 

Also read: Can Farmers’ Movement Trump Older Political Equations in UP’s Crucial Western Region?

Apna Dal (Kamerawadi)

Originally, Apna Dal, a caste-based party representing the Kurmi OBC community mainly in eastern UP, was founded by Sonelal Patel, a Kurmi leader who was earlier in BSP.

After his death, a family feud led to his party diving into two factions. Sone Lal’s daughter Anupriya Patel who is at present a minister in the Union Cabinet leads the Apna Dal (S) and her mother Krishna Patel is the president of Apna Dal (Kamerawadi) supported by Anupriya’s younger sister, Pallavi Patel.

 According to political analysts, there are 5% Kurmi voters in UP and around 12% in Eastern UP. Kurmis hold sway over districts like Varanasi, Mirzapur, Bareilly and Ambedkar Nagar. The Kurmi community fully backed BJP in the last few elections in UP.

This time SP is trying to make inroads in the community by bringing Krishna Patel and Lalji Verma, a strong Kurmi leader and an erstwhile BSP MLA to its fold.

Also read: Dismantling the BJP’s Image as ‘Party of Subaltern Castes’ in Uttar Pradesh

Brijesh Shukla says, “Krishna Patel does not have much influence on Kurmi votes, like her daughter Anupriya Patel. But Lalji Verma will prove to be more of a vote catcher for the party.”

Small but significant

Although these parties do not have state-wide influence, their significance can be understood by looking their region wise performance. Experts suggest these parties separately do not create much impact but when they work in alliances, they can be a formidable force.

Shamshad Khan says, “If Sanjay Chauhan has an impact in 12 seats, Krishna Patel in 5 seats, Om Prakash Rajbhar in 10 seats, then this will be the BJP’s loss and the SP’s gain. On every seat, an average 3,75,000 people vote. If a party is able to shift 25,000 votes on a particular seat, it’s a big deal. Whoever manages this election seat by seat, will win the election.”