Manipur elections

One Year on, the BJP Is Feeling the Impact of the Manipur Crisis

The state and Union governments’ apathy in Manipur during the last year led to poll losses for the BJP in the Northeast.

The fortunes of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in some of the northeastern states seem to be waning, as both have suffered losses to the Congress/regional parties in the 2024 parliamentary elections. The year-long ethnic conflict in Manipur, without any signs of serious efforts to resolve the crisis and restore peace and communal harmony, seem now to be more like an attempt to browbeat one of the minorities in Manipur to submission.

The minority people in the states are worried by the ill treatment meted out to their brethren in the ethnic conflict. The minority community of Kuki-Zo have suffered terribly in the hands of some majority Meiteis who are covertly, sometimes openly, supported by the state government dominated by the Meitei community. The Meiteis have 40 MLAs out of a House of 60 MLAs, and eight ministers including the chief minister, thereby controlling the state government.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

Manipur has gone through more than a year of lawlessness, but the state government is not bothered by the unauthorised occupation of Kuki-Zo buildings in Imphal city by radical elements, the undeclared economic blockade of Churachandpur district by Meitei organisations, open extortion by radical elements, free movement of radical elements within Imphal city, and the inability of the ten Kuki-Zo MLAs and their tribes to return to Imphal.

As the unresolved conflict drags on, battle fatigue and despondency now prevails in the entire state. People have stopped talking about the conflict in disgust and shame. No one supports the continuation of the internecine fight between two communities any more, except the radical elements for whom the persisting conflict has become their bread and butter. The fact that there has been no serious, visible intention to resolve the crisis by the governments in the state and at the Centre has adversely affected the image of the BJP. Even the RSS chief has stated recently that the Manipur crisis needs to be resolved on priority.

The impact of the ethnic violence in Manipur on the outcome of the parliamentary election results may not be discernible in mainland India, but is clearly evident in the states of Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya and Manipur, where the BJP and its allies lost parliamentary seats to the Congress and regional parties. The Manipur conflict provided an opportunity to the Congress and regional parties to paint the BJP and its allies in a bad light during the election campaign.

The knee-jerk reactions to withdraw the FMR (Free Movement Regime) with Myanmar by the Union government added salt to injury. The decision to scrap the FMR and erect a border fence, on the recommendation of the Manipur chief minister, was not taken kindly by the tribes of the affected states in Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. In fact, there are ten times more refugees from Myanmar in Mizoram than Manipur. Mizoram is sheltering more than 40,000 refugees and has not faced any crisis, as they have kept the refugees confined in camps at the border area while extending all humanitarian assistance.

Contrary to the policy adopted by Mizoram, the Manipur government adopted the policy of turning refugees back to Myanmar without realising that only a short portion of the boundary has border fencing. This made the refugees walk into the Manipur from the unfenced areas and set up shelters. Without any humanitarian assistance, they were compelled to erect their own shelters and carry out farming for sustenance, perhaps including poppy.

Had the Manipur government acted in a similar manner as the Mizoram government did, there would not have been any unauthorised settlements of refugees and farming. The remedy to the temporary movement of refugees, on account of atrocities committed against ethnic minorities in Myanmar by the ruling junta, is not the removal of FMR.

Scrapping of the FMR and erection of border fencing by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) conveyed a message to the tribes in Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur that the BJP cares more for the Meiteis than the minority tribes in the northeastern states.

The inept handling of the situation between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities not only caused deaths and destruction of properties but also adversely impacted the economy and ushered in a state of lawlessness with rising extortion. There has been a rise of radical elements, freely parading the streets of Imphal in police/armed forces uniform. The state government was brought to its knees by the radical elements who made Meitei MLAs and MPs recite an oath in the Kangla Fort with the tacit blessings of a befuddled team from home ministry.

More than half of the guns looted from police armouries are still in the hands of radical elements on both sides. The police and security forces are not doing anything to stop unlawful activities, lending credence to the suspicion that there are oral orders not to take any action against radical elements in possession of looted guns. With the BJP’s apathy being blamed for what’s happening in the state, the BJP lost the support of the people, resulting in resounding defeats by unprecedented margins in both the parliamentary seats of Manipur.

The Meiteis went against the BJP for ushering lawlessness, extortion and causing price rise and misery in the state. The Kuki-Zo voted for the Congress in the Outer Manipur constituency as they wanted to punish the BJP for abandoning them and the five Kuki-Zo BJP MLAs (out of total of ten MLAs from the community) in favour of the Meitei community. The Kuki-Zo are not in favour of voting for Naga People’s Front (NPF) for their proximity with the NSCN, their bête noire, and their alliance with the BJP. The association of the NPF with the BJP became a curse for the NPF as people started distancing themselves from the NPF.

The chief minister of Assam seems to have got a sense of why the BJP and its allies were defeated in states having a large Christian population. The ongoing Manipur conflict seems to have made church leaders decide to become proactive like their counterparts in Mizoram to save the people from an anti-minority political party and their associates. The church leaders cannot be blamed for their proactive action, as they were pushed by the anti-minority policies of the BJP.

Now that the BJP is forced to lead a coalition government at the Centre, there is hope that its strident anti-minority policies will be watered down for fear of ruffling the feathers of its powerful coalition partners.

Ngaranmi Shimray is a New Delhi-based social activist and tweets @AranShimray.

Amid Gun Shots, Booth Capturing and Violence, Restive Manipur Votes in First Phase

According to state Congress president K. Meghachandra, ‘unprecedented mass violence and boot capturing incidents [took place] during the election in the valley region of Manipur’

New Delhi: Polling in the violence-ridden Manipur on April 19 witnessed a series of untoward incidents including a senior citizen sustaining bullet injuries while queuing up for voting in the Imphal East parliamentary constituency.

According to local news reports, the voter, identified as 75-year-old Khoisnam Sanayaima, was hit by a bullet in a 3/11 polling station located in the Moirang Kampu Sajeb upper primary school that falls under the Khurai assembly constituency. An Imphal Free Press report said the incident took place on April 19 around 1:50 p.m.

Quoting his family members, the news report said. “Five people came in a silver-coloured XUV car (to the polling station). While two of them went inside the polling station, the rest remained in the car.”

“The sound of heated arguments with the agents was heard from inside the polling station. Then, the two (men) were seen running out from (of) the polling station while the others (polling agents) were trying to catch them.”

As per the report, soon “two-three rounds of gunshots were fired from the car which hit the right side of Sanayaima’s lower back. The incident led to the dispersal of the voters in the area and voting in the polling station could not be continued as planned.”

Thereafter, the enraged voters present at the polling station “set ablaze the EVM and VVPAT machines of the polling station.”

Later, a press note issued by the state police said three persons were arrested in connection with the incident. Some arms, i-phones and cash were seized from their possession. “The helpless polling officials along with the security personnel on duty at the polling station left the spot immediately,” said The Ukhrul Times.

Meanwhile, news of several polling stations captured by armed miscreants was reported from various areas of the Imphal East Constituency. Several such clips have been circulating on social media. Many fingers have been pointed at the role played by Aramabai Tenggol, an armed overground Meitei outfit seen close to chief minister N Biren Singh and the BJP Rajya Sabha member Sanajaoba.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is aiming at a second consecutive win in the Imphal East constituency.

Following the nearly-year-long ethnic strife in the north-eastern state in which several people have lost lives and thousands displaced, there is considerable public anger against the ruling party from both the Meitei and the Kuki communities. During the recent visit of the Union home minister Amit Shah to the state to campaign for his party in the Inner Manipur seat, a large number of women and youth were seen hitting the streets in Imphal condemning it.

In the Imphal East LS seat, BJP’s Basanta Kumar, a senior minister in the Biren Singh government, is pitted against Congress’ Bimol Akoijam as the joined candidate of the INDIA bloc.

In a video clip circulating on social media since the April 19 evening, Akoijam was seen complaining to senior police officials about his polling agent being threatened by armed miscreants at a booth in Imphal and thereby forcing him to flee the place, leading to booth capturing. The senior police officials were seen at first refusing to accept his complaint.

Truth has a strange way of revealing itself. This parliamentary election unravels the source of #ManipurViolence and how the powers-that-be use this misfit for their partisan electoral interest. Let right-thinking citizens stand up and speak before it is too late! https://t.co/JV7bEFdBrT

— Kham Khan Suan Hausing (@kksuanh) April 20, 2024

Later, the state Congress unit filed a complaint with the chief election officer of the state, alleging booth capturing and violation of the electoral procedures in as many as 36 polling booths of the Inner Manipur LS constituency, and in 11 polling booths in the Sugnu area of the Outer Manipur LS constituency. Congress’s Alfred Arthur is pitted against Timothy Zimik of the Naga People’s Front, an ally of the BJP, in the Outer Manipur seat. Voting in the Outer Manipur seat is being held in two phases; the last phase is on April 26.

According to news reports, MPCC president K Meghachandra, at a press meet held in Imphal on April 19 evening, expressed concerns over “the unprecedented mass violence and boot capturing incidents during the election in the valley region of Manipur.”

“He emphasised that such occurrences are the first of their kind in the state and are happening under the double-engine government,” stated the Imphal Free Press.

Meghachandra told reporters that all the polling agents of the Congress at the 36 polling stations “received threats from armed miscreants allegedly adopted by the BJP. Some agents even reported being assaulted…but refrained from lodging complaints due to fear of retaliation.”

Urging the election commission to conduct re-poll in the 36 polling stations, Meghachandra told reporters, “Right to vote has been snatched by the double engine government. Where is the meaning of democracy if electors are unable to cast their votes in the election?”

On asked about the allegations about the involvement Aramabai Tenggol in booth capturing, Chanthoi, a leader of the Meitei women’s organisation, Meira Paibi, told The Wire, “Yes, I do believe such a thing has happened.” She accused “top political forces” of “engineering the ongoing conflict in the state for the elections”.

“Democracy has totally failed; there is no point in conducting elections,” she said.

The Meitei woman leader also added, “The central government wants power at any cost; it is the Narendra Modi government that has made the conflict prolong for so long.”

There has been considerable anger in both the Meitei and the Kuki communities for Prime Minister Modi bypassing a visit to Manipur even though the people of the state had voted for the BJP in the last assembly elections for the party to gain full majority for the first time.

Meanwhile, Kuki voters in the Outer Manipur LS constituency were seen abstaining from voting on April 19. Tahngtilen Haokip, leader of the Kuki community associated with the Committee on Tribal Unity (CoTU), justified the decision to The Wire, “When two of our village volunteers were killed in Phailengmol areas in defence of our land (This past April 13) in an inhuman and brutal manner, how can we go to vote? Election is not more important for us this time than the fact that our brothers were killed by the Meteis. I would say, it is not boycott of the elections but abstaining from it.”

In press statements, COTU had claimed that the two Kuki village volunteers “were gunned down by Meitei militants in collusion with members of central security forces.”

Manipur Police Registers Zero FIRs on Killing of 2 Kuki-Zo Men

The killings occurred just ahead of Union home minister Amit Shah’s visit to Manipur.

New Delhi: The Manipur Police have registered two zero FIRs on the killings of two Kuki-Zo defence volunteers in Phailengmola, abutting Kangpokpi and Imphal East districts, by gunmen allegedly belonging to Meitei group Arambai Tenggol. According to The Hindu, the FIRs were filed on Sunday (April 15) at the Kangpokpi police station.

The family members of the two killed on Saturday had filed police complaints. The deceased have been identified as Kamminlal Lupheng (23) of K. Sajag village and Kamlensat Lunkim (25) of Bongjang village in in Kangpokpi district.

The cases have been registered under Section 16 of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, Section 3 of the SC & ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act, elevant Sections of the Indian Penal Code for murder, criminal conspiracy, rioting, criminal intimidation, and connected offences, and sections of the Arms Act.

The Hindu has reported that the men’s bodies are yet to be handed over to their families.

The killings occurred just ahead of Union home minister Amit Shah’s visit to Manipur.

Shah’s visit in Manipur comes after almost 10 months after the conflict gripped the north-eastern state. The latest flare-up raises questions about the stability and security of the region, even as the Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a recent speech claimed to have contained the conflict through the Centre’s timely intervention – a claim that a large section of civil society in Manipur dismissed as far from the truth.

Manipur will go to polls in two phases – April 19 and 26 – for its two Lok Sabha seats Inner Manipur and Outer Manipur.

Manipur: BJP Govt Silent as Arambai Tenggol Imposes Campaigning Restrictions

Manipur has been engulfed by violence since May 2023 and the role of Arambai Tenggol, including its sudden rise and political domination, has particularly come under greater scrutiny.

New Delhi: The Manipur state government and the Union government – both ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party – have stayed silent as Meitei militia group Arambai Tenggol publicly issued restrictions on traditional campaign methods during the Lok Sabha elections in the state. Arambai Tenggol’s Laishram Robason, popularly known as the ‘Control Room Operator’, issued a press release prohibiting public gatherings, feasts, the use of loudspeakers, flag raising and spreading election messages through loudspeakers during the campaign, reports India Today NE.

Manipur has been engulfed by violence since May 2023 and the role of Arambai Tenggol, including its sudden rise and political domination, has particularly come under greater scrutiny. Formed in September 2022, the militia was a little-known shadowy group but it now boasts of a cadre strength of over 60,000, with more than five dozen spread over Imphal. On social media, the Arambai Tenggol appears to be dressed like state and central forces and moves around with heavy weaponry, without any overt action by the BJP state government or the state police.

The militia was recently caught up in a major controversy when it organised a meeting with the Meitei legislators and MPs at the Kangla Fort. It was attended by two MPs from the region along with many ministers in the state government. At the meeting, the militia reportedly beat up and abused three legislators, two from the BJP and one from the Congress, when they refused to agree to the demands. No first-information report appears to have been registered in the matter.

On the final day of nomination filing for the Inner Manipur Parliamentary Constituency, six candidates entered the fray, taking the total number of candidates to seven. These include Maheshwar Thounaojam of RPI-A, Thounaojam Basanta Kumar Singh of the BJP, Dr. Angomcha Bimol Akoijam of the Congress, Moirangthem Totomshana Nongshaba of RJSP, Ngasepam Nilakanta Singh of UFP, Rajkumar Somendro Singh of MPP and Haorungbam Sarat Singh as an Independent.

With Five Women Winning MLA Seats, a Historic Turn in Manipur

While women’s political participation remains low in the state, this election marks a significant shift.

New Delhi: Though the major focus of the results of the latest bout of assembly elections declared yesterday were on the wins in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, in Manipur, the March 10 counting of votes after two-phased voting had led to a new history of sorts in the northeastern state, in terms of women’s political participation and winnability.

As many as five women have come up trumps in these assembly elections in Manipur – a first ever in its political history. After the 2017 polls, the 60-member assembly of the state had only two women legislators in Nimcha Kipgen, representing the BJP from the Kangpokpi constituency, and Congress MLA Akoijam Mirabai Devi from Patsoi. Kipgen went on to become the only woman minister in the N. Biren Singh-led government in 2017.

The notable loser in the 2017 assembly elections was Irom Sharmila from Thoubal in the valley areas. The celebrated peace activist from the majority Meitei community raised eyebrows countrywide from not being able to corner even 100 votes after her legendary fast demanding removal of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act.

Yesterday though, Mirabai Devi lost her Patsoi seat to the BJP but Kipgen won once again from Kangpokpi. Along with her, four other women joined the winners’ ranks – S.S. Olish (BJP) from Chandel; Kimneo Haokip Hangsingh (Kuki People’s Alliance) from Saikul; Irengbam Nalini Devi (National People’s Party) from Oinam; and Sagolshem Kebi Devi (BJP) from Naoriya Pakhanglakpa.

While two of these first time winners are from the state’s tribal communities, the other two first-timers are from the majority Meitei community. In all, the 12th assembly will have five women – three from the hills, two from the valley areas.

On asked about this notable change in the Manipur assembly in terms of gender representation, senior Imphal-based journalist and political commentator Laba Yambem told The Wire, “There may be several factors behind these electoral victories including public support for a candidate because of her ability to win their trust. But on a general note, we can say that the Kuki community has far more egalitarian values than, say, their tribal neighbours, the Nagas, because of which some of these women from the Kuki community may have also won the elections.”

Pointing out that the Nagas are yet to elect a woman MLA in the Nagaland assembly, he also added, “What we hear is, the Chandel winner from the BJP, Olish, a Naga, had to pay a visit to NSCN (I-M) supremo Th. Muivah at Hebron, the outfit’s headquarters in Nagaland, to seek his blessings – which he granted to her, leading to her win yesterday.”

The first woman legislator in the Manipur assembly, though, was a Tangkhul Naga, Hnagmila Shaiza, from the Ukhrul constituency, in 1990. She was the wife of former state chief minister Yangmaso Shaiza (1923-1984), the first from the state’s hill region to sit on that chair.

Compared to the 2017 elections, political parties have also increased the number of their women candidates marginally in the 2022 assembly polls in Manipur. From 11 in the last polls, there were 17 women in the fray in these elections. The number, though, if looked at as a proportion of the total figure of contestants across political parties and independents, is highly disproportionate. Among the 265 candidates to have filed their nomination papers, there were only 17 women, which would be about 6.42% of the total figure.

While Congress topped the list by naming four women as their official candidates, BJP and the NPP gave tickets to three women candidates each. The Nationalist Congress Party gave tickets to two women while the Janata Dal (United), the Communist Party of India and the Kuki People’s Alliance announced a woman candidate each. Two other women contested these polls as independents.

The number of women political representatives is also dismal when it is taken into account that the state has 52% women voters – 10,57,336 female voters compared to 9,90,833 male voters.

With the number of women elected members in the assembly now on the rise, is the electorate across the state looking at women as more serious political contenders than they had earlier? Journalist Ningul Hangal agreed that the acceptance of women, particularly in the tribal areas, as political candidates is emerging. “More and more women in the tribal hill areas of the state are now seen involving themselves in political work or activity as part of a political party. That more number of women have been given tickets by the parties this time also made a difference. It showed they were looked at seriously by their parties. I would say it also depends on their winnability, their capacity to show to their parties and to the public that they are capable of winning an election,” she added.

Ningul, though, underlined that when soon after their win on March 10, she had put out on social media that three women from tribal groups of the state had won the elections at the same time and had created history, there were several derogatory comments about them on her post. “Comments began to surface that they would be puppets; certain insurgent groups were behind their win; they are allegedly in relation with some powerful politician, or wife of some powerful man, etc. I would say those comments were publicly made only because they were women. No male candidate is publicly accused of winning an election in the state with, say, support from insurgents or because they were backed by some powerful politician.” She also pointed out, “Before the elections, there were gender-based jokes circulating about a tribal woman contestant that she should better join a beauty contest than fight elections.”

A formidable woman candidate to have lost the 2022 assembly polls in Manipur is Th. Brinda. The celebrated former state police officer who had led a successful campaign against prevalence of drugs in the border state and even took on the chief minister accusing him of protecting certain drug dealers, Brinda had contested from Yaiskul constituency on a Janata Dal (United) ticket. Unlike Irom, she bagged 4,574 votes in a three-corner contest with NPP and the BJP. The BJP candidate, Th. Satyabrata Singh, won that seat.

Thonaujam Brinda.

Laba Yambem commented, “She gave a formidable fight, stood third with a good number of votes. This is impressive coming from a first timer and a woman candidate at that. I am saying it not because she happens to be my niece but in general that in Manipur politics, she brought in a new phenomenon as a contestant; spoke about protection of a citizen’s rights; asked people to vote on issues and policies of government, unlike how a candidate typically fights an election in our state. She could get so many votes without money and muscle power. I would say, she lost the battle yesterday but not the war; if I know her well, it will continue.”

Yambem also added, “That she was not backed by her powerful father-in-law (R.K. Meghan, former chairman of the armed group United national Liberation Front), also became a factor for her loss.” In the run-up to the polls, Brinda was asked by her father-in-law to step down. Rumours in the political corridors were that he was pressurised to do so at the behest of the BJP. On refusing to step aside, Brinda was thrown out of Meghan’s house.

Said Ningul,“It is true that a firebrand candidate like Brinda had the ‘daughter-in-law’ tag in these elections. Her no other identity became more important than that; not even her super cop identity. Of course, in an election, there are other factors too, say, joining the right party, resources for campaigning, a winning strategy, vote calculations, etc. In Brinda’s case, of course she is not a political worker, has no experience in electoral politics, or has no family member in active politics; all these factors must have also mattered for her loss.”

She, though, added, “Generally, what I have noticed is that most voters in our society also look at politics as dirty, and when women jump into it, it is not often looked with approval. Look what happened to Irom. Dealing with dirty politics is often seen as man’s job; a woman should remain only as a do-gooder, a fighter, ready to sacrifice for society and fight politicians only from outside the arena of electoral politics.”

Manipur: Biren Singh Leads BJP Past Simple Majority; Congress Decimated

The saffron party will be able to form a government on its own for the first time in the northeastern state. Its allies in the NDA also performed well.

New Delhi: After several rounds of counting of votes in Manipur today, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has cornered as many as 32 seats – just enough to be able to form a government on its own for the first time in the northeastern state.

In the 2017 polls, even while giving a stiff fight to the Congress – which was facing three-term anti-incumbency, the BJP could corner only 21 of the 60 assembly seats. The Congress, under the leadership of the Okram Ibobi Singh, the longest-serving chief minister that the state had seen so far, had become the single largest party with 28 seats – falling three short to claim simple majority. With the Naga People’s Front (NPF) and the National People’s Party (NPP) coming to its aid, the BJP stitched up a coalition government led by N. Biren Singh.

Singh was a two-time MLA from the Congress before he shifted to the BJP in 2016. He had a falling out with Ibobi Singh, with the chief minister not ‘protecting’ Singh’s son – who was behind bars in a murder case. The BJP was anyway looking at poaching winnable candidates from the ruling party to have a fighting chance. By then, Singh had won from the Heingang seat thrice, as a member of the Democratic Revolutionary Party once in 2002 and twice on the Congress’s ticket. He could win that seat for the BJP in the 2017 polls too. He has repeated that feat again in 2022.

After a fractured mandate in 2017, Biren Singh became the dark horse and took over as the first BJP chief minister of Manipur in an alliance government. Subsequently, Singh used his Congress connections to ensure that some MLAs from the grand old party showed “informal support” to the BJP without resigning from the house. Throwing all rules to the wind, several Congress MLAs sat on the treasury benches at times while the house was in session.

In 2020, when Singh faced the biggest crisis of his government with rebels in his own party joining hands with the NPP, the BJP national leaders refused to remove him, thus providing him with the necessary wherewithal to consolidate his position within the party, and thereby ready it for the 2022 polls.

Today, even though the BJP has just about passed the simple majority mark by winning 32 seats – 11 more than its 2017 tally – the one to come out strongest in the party is Biren Singh. This is because the BJP had contested on its own and did not have any pre-poll alliances with existing allies in the government.

Soon after voting trends indicated that his party is set to return to power, Singh was quick to tell local reporters that the NPP will not likely be part of his government. Even though the BJP doesn’t need any help from an ally to form a government, the statement showed he has not forgotten the party’s role in supporting BJP rebels who attempted to topple him.

BJP allies perform well

The NPP, having increased its tally from four to seven in these elections, is, therefore, set to emerge as the major opposition in the state’s 12th assembly.

The next party to have performed well in these polls is yet another NDA ally, the Janata Dal (United). Nitish Kumar’s party, after a gap of 22 years, has raised its tally from one to six in the state.

Yet another BJP regional ally, the Naga People’s Front (NPF), has also succeeded in increasing its tally from four to five in these two-phase elections. Biren Singh has confirmed to the local media that the NPF would most likely continue to be part of the BJP government.

A notable feature of Thursday’s results is also the spectacular performance of the newly formed regional party, Kuki People’s Alliance in the hill areas. It had contested two seats – Saikul and Singhat. The Election Commission has confirmed its win in both constituencies. The party’s Saikul winner, Kimneo Haokip Hangshing, is among a handful of tribal women to emerge as winners in these polls. Yet another woman candidate who had attracted considerable media attention in these elections was Th. Brinda, a former cop, who had contested from the Yaiskul seat on the JD(U)’s ticket. She stood third.

Congress decimated

However, the biggest takeaway from today’s results is the decimation of the Congress in Manipur. From 28 seats in 2017, it has dropped to four. Several of its former MLAs have switched sides to either the BJP, NPP or other players to remain in the fray and some have emerged victorious. Still, former Congress chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh could retain his Thoubal seat by defeating his opponent from the BJP, L. Basanta Singh. Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah had held mega rallies in the district.

As of 8 pm, the Election Commission of India’s website showed Congress pocketing four other seats.

No wonder then, the Congress’ vote share has reduced drastically in the state after a long while. The ECI website has shown the slide from 35.1% in 2017 to 16.83% in these elections. While the BJP could increase its vote share marginally from 36.3% in 2017 to 37.8%, the Congress’s loss was a win for the NPP (whose vote share has risen from 5.1% to 17.29%) and NPF (from 7.2% to 8.1%), besides the JD(U) which cornered 10.8% of votes.

Exit Polls Predict BJP Win in UP, Manipur; AAP Victory in Punjab

Ahead of the counting of votes on March 10, exit polls predict a close contest in Uttarakhand, and a hung assembly in Goa.

New Delhi: With the voting process now complete in five states, the exit polls predict a possible change of guard in Uttarakhand, with the Congress appearing ahead of the BJP, and in Punjab, with the Aam Aadmi Party likely to dislodge the ruling Congress.

In the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, although BJP is likely to form the next government, its tally this time around could be significantly lower than its 2017 performance. While the saffron party appears to form another government in Manipur, Goa is the only state where exit polls predict a hung assembly. The counting of votes will be done on Thursday, March 10.

Exit Poll	BJP+	SP+	BSP	Congress
P-MARQ	240	140	17	4
Republic TV-Matrize	262-277	119-134	7-15	3-8
NewsX-Polstrat	211-225	116-160	14-24	4-6
ETG Research	230-245	150-165	5-10	2-6

The lowering of BJP’s tally in Uttar Pradesh could be attributed to the cumulative anger of the people due to various issues, such as the farmers’ agitation, the Lakhimpur Kheri violence, high levels of unemployment and inflation and the divisive politics played out the BJP.

It may be recalled that in 2017, the BJP won 312 seats in the 403-member house. The Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav had secured 47 seats while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party had garnered 19.

Punjab may go AAP’s way

Having witnessed a great deal of political turmoil ahead of the Assembly elections, Punjab this time is likely to throw up a surprise result. According to most exit polls, AAP is all set to dislodge the ruling Congress.

As per the exit polls, AAP looks to be ahead of the rest of the pack, with most exit polls giving it a full majority in the 117-member Assembly.

Exit Poll	AAP	Congress	SAD (Badal)	BJP+
Times Now	70	22	19	5
Axis My India	76-90	19-31	7-11	1-4
News24-Today’s Chanakya poll	100	10	6	1

A couple of months before the polls, the ruling Congress in Punjab replaced its chief minister Amarinder Singh and gave the state its first Dalit chief minister in the form of Charanjit Singh Channi. However, this led to a split as Amarinder formed his own party, the Punjab Lok Congress.

Amarinder Singh allied with the BJP, which was looking for support after its longest ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) left it in the wake of the farmers’ agitation. The SAD (Badal) in turn partnered with BSP for the polls making it a keen four-cornered fight.

In 2017, Amarinder had led Congress to a complete majority. The party had won 77 seats, followed by AAP at 20 and SAD (Badal) at 18.

Close call in Uttarakhand

The hill state of Uttarakhand remains too close to call for the exit polls too. While most have shown the Congress to be ahead in the state – in the plains of which too the reverberations of the farmers’ agitation were felt rather strongly – some polls have shown the BJP, led by Pushkar Singh Dhami, slightly ahead in the polls to the 70-member House. The Aam Aadmi Party had also thrown its hat into the state’s political ring this time.

In the 2017 elections, BJP had won 57 seats, Congress 11 and independents two seats.

The Zee News-Design Boxed exit poll has predicted 35-40 seats for the Congress, 26-30 for BJP and 0-3 for others.

The ABP-CVoter has projected BJP to win 37 seats with 41% votes; Congress 31 seats with 39% votes. It shows AAP getting 9% votes and others 11%.

The News24-Today’s Chanakya poll has given BJP 43 seats and Congress 24 with a probability of plus or minus seven seats. It has given others 3 seats.

In terms of vote percentage, the poll shows that BJP could secure 41% votes, Congress 34%, and others 25% with an error margin of 3% each.

A hung Assembly in Goa?

In Goa, where apart from the traditional rivals, the Congress and BJP, several other political parties, like AAP and Trinamool Congress, have been in the fray this time around. The outcome is likely to be a hung House according to most exit polls.

While the TMC has tied up with Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGM), the Congress had a truck with Goa Forward Party. The BJP contested all 40 seats on its own. All the polls show the ruling BJP’s tally stopping well short of the half-way mark this time.

As per ABP News exit poll, the BJP is likely to win 13-17 seats; Congress+ 12-16; AAP 1-5; TMC-MGP 5-9 and others 0-2.

The P-MARQ exit poll has given BJP 13-17; Congress+ 13-17; AAP 2-6; TMC-MGP 2-4; and others 0-4.

The India Today-Axis MyIndia poll has given BJP 14-18; Congress+ 15-20; TMC-MGP 2-5 and others 0-4.

The Jan Ki Baat-India News exit poll has given BJP 13-19; Congress+ 14-19; AAP 3-5; and TMC-MGP 1-2

Manipur may return to BJP

Most exit polls show BJP along with its allies, the National People’s Party, the Naga People’s Front and the Janata Dal (United), likely to retain power in Manipur, which has a 60-member House.

In the 2017 polls while Congress had emerged the single largest party with 28 seats, the BJP had despite getting only 21 still managed to cobble up a majority and form the government.

The Zee News-Design Boxed poll predicts BJP to get 32-38 seats and Congress 12-17.

The Axis My India poll has given BJP 33-43, Congress 4-8 and others 10-23.

The India TV-Ground Zero Research exit poll has given BJP 23-28 seats and Congress 10-14.

The India News-Jan Ki Baat has given BJP 23-28 and Congress+ 10-14.

The News 18 P-MARQ poll has given BJP 27-31 and Congress+ 11-17 seats.

Manipur: One Killed, Two Incidents of Violence Reported Before 2nd Phase of Elections

According to news agency PTI, L. Amuba Singh, 25, a BJP supporter, was gunned down allegedly by a Congress worker in the state’s Thoubal district.

New Delhi: Two separate incidents of violence were reported in Manipur hours before the second phase of polling for assembly elections on Saturday, resulting in the death of a BJP supporter.

According to news agency PTI, L. Amuba Singh, 25, a BJP supporter, was gunned down allegedly by a Congress worker in the state’s Thoubal district. In a separate incident, a crude bomb exploded outside the residence of an expelled saffron party leader.

Singh succumbed to bullet injuries early on Saturday at a hospital here, a police officer said.

Polling for the second and last phase of assembly elections in Manipur began at 7 am in 22 constituencies across six districts.

Singh, along with other BJP activists, had gone to the residence of the Congress worker in the early hours in Thoubal district to tell him to stop campaigning as the stipulated time for it was over, the officer said.

During an altercation over the issue, he allegedly fired at Singh, who was first taken to a hospital in the district and later referred to another health facility in Imphal, the officer said.

The Congress activist, who is yet to be arrested, was also injured after the visiting BJP workers hurled stones at him when Singh was shot, he added.

In another incident, unidentified persons lobbed a crude bomb at the residence of expelled BJP leader Ch Bijoy in the Lamphel area in Manipur’s Imphal West district, police said.

The incident took place on Friday night, hours before the second phase of the assembly elections was to begin, they said.

Nobody was injured in the blast triggered by two masked persons, who came on a two-wheeler, a police officer said.

Bijoy, who was expelled from the saffron party last month for six years on disciplinary grounds, told reporters, “The attack might be a threat to make me politically silent.

Further investigation is underway, according to PTI.

(With PTI inputs)

Watch | Poll Bulletin: Bhagwant Mann to Be AAP’s CM Candidate in Punjab

In Manipur, the Christian community has urged the Election Commission not to hold election on Sunday, February 27, and called for it to be rescheduled.

The election campaign in the poll-bound states of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab and Manipur has reached a feverish pitch. With the Election Commission imposing restrictions on political rallies in the wake of COVID-19, parties have been finding ingenious ways to reach out to the electorate.

Starting today, The Wire‘s election bulletin will provide important updates from the poll-bound states.

In Punjab, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has named Bhagwant Mann as its chief ministerial candidate, following the party’s internal election process. On the other hand, elections in Punjab will be now held on February 20, instead of February 14.

In Uttar Pradesh, AAP has announced that it will contest on its own in all 403 assembly seats. The party’s first list with 150 candidates is already out. Of the 150 party nominees, eight are women. As for Samajwadi Party, its chief announced that his party, if voted to power, will provide free electricity up to 300 units per month.

In Manipur, after demand emerged from the Christian community to not hold election on Sunday, February 27, the Congress party has decided to write to the Election Commission to get it rescheduled. The state will vote on February 27 and March 3 in two phases.