New Delhi: After several rounds of counting of votes in Manipur today, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has cornered as many as 32 seats – just enough to be able to form a government on its own for the first time in the northeastern state.
In the 2017 polls, even while giving a stiff fight to the Congress – which was facing three-term anti-incumbency, the BJP could corner only 21 of the 60 assembly seats. The Congress, under the leadership of the Okram Ibobi Singh, the longest-serving chief minister that the state had seen so far, had become the single largest party with 28 seats – falling three short to claim simple majority. With the Naga People’s Front (NPF) and the National People’s Party (NPP) coming to its aid, the BJP stitched up a coalition government led by N. Biren Singh.
Singh was a two-time MLA from the Congress before he shifted to the BJP in 2016. He had a falling out with Ibobi Singh, with the chief minister not ‘protecting’ Singh’s son – who was behind bars in a murder case. The BJP was anyway looking at poaching winnable candidates from the ruling party to have a fighting chance. By then, Singh had won from the Heingang seat thrice, as a member of the Democratic Revolutionary Party once in 2002 and twice on the Congress’s ticket. He could win that seat for the BJP in the 2017 polls too. He has repeated that feat again in 2022.
After a fractured mandate in 2017, Biren Singh became the dark horse and took over as the first BJP chief minister of Manipur in an alliance government. Subsequently, Singh used his Congress connections to ensure that some MLAs from the grand old party showed “informal support” to the BJP without resigning from the house. Throwing all rules to the wind, several Congress MLAs sat on the treasury benches at times while the house was in session.
In 2020, when Singh faced the biggest crisis of his government with rebels in his own party joining hands with the NPP, the BJP national leaders refused to remove him, thus providing him with the necessary wherewithal to consolidate his position within the party, and thereby ready it for the 2022 polls.
Today, even though the BJP has just about passed the simple majority mark by winning 32 seats – 11 more than its 2017 tally – the one to come out strongest in the party is Biren Singh. This is because the BJP had contested on its own and did not have any pre-poll alliances with existing allies in the government.
Soon after voting trends indicated that his party is set to return to power, Singh was quick to tell local reporters that the NPP will not likely be part of his government. Even though the BJP doesn’t need any help from an ally to form a government, the statement showed he has not forgotten the party’s role in supporting BJP rebels who attempted to topple him.
BJP allies perform well
The NPP, having increased its tally from four to seven in these elections, is, therefore, set to emerge as the major opposition in the state’s 12th assembly.
The next party to have performed well in these polls is yet another NDA ally, the Janata Dal (United). Nitish Kumar’s party, after a gap of 22 years, has raised its tally from one to six in the state.
Yet another BJP regional ally, the Naga People’s Front (NPF), has also succeeded in increasing its tally from four to five in these two-phase elections. Biren Singh has confirmed to the local media that the NPF would most likely continue to be part of the BJP government.
A notable feature of Thursday’s results is also the spectacular performance of the newly formed regional party, Kuki People’s Alliance in the hill areas. It had contested two seats – Saikul and Singhat. The Election Commission has confirmed its win in both constituencies. The party’s Saikul winner, Kimneo Haokip Hangshing, is among a handful of tribal women to emerge as winners in these polls. Yet another woman candidate who had attracted considerable media attention in these elections was Th. Brinda, a former cop, who had contested from the Yaiskul seat on the JD(U)’s ticket. She stood third.
Congress decimated
However, the biggest takeaway from today’s results is the decimation of the Congress in Manipur. From 28 seats in 2017, it has dropped to four. Several of its former MLAs have switched sides to either the BJP, NPP or other players to remain in the fray and some have emerged victorious. Still, former Congress chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh could retain his Thoubal seat by defeating his opponent from the BJP, L. Basanta Singh. Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah had held mega rallies in the district.
As of 8 pm, the Election Commission of India’s website showed Congress pocketing four other seats.
No wonder then, the Congress’ vote share has reduced drastically in the state after a long while. The ECI website has shown the slide from 35.1% in 2017 to 16.83% in these elections. While the BJP could increase its vote share marginally from 36.3% in 2017 to 37.8%, the Congress’s loss was a win for the NPP (whose vote share has risen from 5.1% to 17.29%) and NPF (from 7.2% to 8.1%), besides the JD(U) which cornered 10.8% of votes.