Manipur elections

Elections 2017: A Brief Recap of Manipur’s Electoral Politics

As the first phase of assembly elections in Manipur begins, The Wire takes you through the history of elections and power shifts in the northeastern state.

Assembly elections in Manipur will be held in two phases on March 4 and March 8.

The first phase of elections to the 11th Manipur legislative assembly begins on March 4, with polling in 38 constituencies spread across five districts – Imphal East, Imphal West, Churachandpur, Pherzawl, Bishnupur and Kangpokpi.

As many as 11, 19 271 voters are set to choose from among 168 candidates representing a number of national and regional parties. Only six of the candidates in the first phase of polling are women.

The two-phased elections – the next phase is on March 8 – are, however, going to see a keen contest for power between the two biggest national parties – the incumbent Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. A state that witnessed perhaps the highest number of President’s rule, has had a Congress government under the chief ministership of Okram Ibobi Singh since 2002.

While Congress has a chief ministerial candidate in Ibobi, the BJP has decided to go to the polls with Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the party’s face.

While the BJP is going to the voters on the plank of development and opposed to “bandhs and blockade”, the Congress is trying to consolidate voter support in its favour on the basis of ethnic identity and promise to uphold “territorial integrity of Manipur.”

The state has been reeling under an economic blockade called by the United Naga Council (UNC) since November 1, after the state government decided to carve out seven new districts, many of which are from what the UNC claims to be the Naga ancestral land. The blockade is affecting the supply of essential commodities across the state.

In the valley districts, which has 40 of the state’s 60 assembly constituencies, the blockade is being seen by the majority community – the Meiteis – as an example of an ethnic assertion by the Nagas. Since the framework agreement between the Modi government and the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), signed in 2015, is still not in the public domain yet, there seems to a widespread doubt among common voters about the Centre compromising the state’s territorial integrity by agreeing to the NSCN’s long-held demand for greater Nagalim, which comprises land from Assam, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh besides Nagaland.

However, Modi and other senior BJP national and state leaders have reiterated many times that the party would not compromise the territorial integrity of the state. The election results on March 11 will show whether or not the voters were convinced by the prime minister’s words.

As the first phase of assembly elections in Manipur begins, The Wire takes you through the history of elections and power shifts in the northeastern state.

The Wire’s coverage of Manipur 2017

In this interactive graphic below, The Wire looks at the important statistics to keep in mind and which constituencies to look forward to. Read on.

In Manipur’s Churachandpur, Tribal ‘Martyrs’ and a ‘Stolen’ Corpse Will Likely Sway the Elections

The killing of the nine locals in protests in 2015 and the events that followed will almost certainly dictate the election outcome in Churachandpur.

Symbolic coffins right next to the morgue where the bodies have been placed in cold storage in Churachandpur. Credit: Akhil Kumar

Churachandpur (Manipur): It was not yet 9 am and group of schoolboys were already out, playing football under the strong sun. Pairs of young legs animatedly chased the ball through a cluster of tombstones. Their ground was the colony’s graveyard.

Not far from the boys – at one end of the graveyard in the Bijang area of Manipur’s Churachandpur town – was the buried body of Khaizamang Touthang, under a mound of mud circled by a bamboo fence that was decorated with wreaths made of plastic flowers.

Eleven-year-old Khaizamang could well have been among those kicking around the football that morning in early February, had he not fallen to a bullet allegedly fired by a policeman on September 1, 2015, near the town’s police station.

The site of Khaizamang Touthang’s burial. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Some of these boys might have been among those who rushed out of their homes that violent evening – like Khaizamang did – upon hearing sloganeering by a large crowd of townspeople that had gathered near the police station to protest against the passage of three ‘anti-tribal’ bills a day before by the state assembly in Imphal, situated 80 kms from the town.

The protesters alleged that the bills – the Protection of Manipur People’s Bill 2015, the Manipur Land Reforms and Land Revenue (7th Amendment) Bill, and the Manipur Shops and Establishment (2nd Amendment) Bill, 2015 – were a “covert attempt” by the majority Meitei community to grab their tribal land.

While many returned home that evening, Khaizamang did not. Just as eight others of the town whose bodies now lie inside the morgue of the district hospital, frozen in metal boxes.

On March 4, when the districts of Churachandpur and Pherzawl go to polls – along with two other hill constituencies in Chandel district and one in the Kangpokpi district – these dead are likely to have a strong say in the outcome.

The main street of the town, which saw violence and arson that night, including the torching of properties of two MLAs and a minister in the Okram Ibobi Singh government, is called Tiddim Road. If you continue on it beyond the Indo-Myanmar border, it will lead you to Tiddim in Myanmar.

The road was a common route of passage used by the people of this region to go to Tiddim, a town that shared a common ethnicity and language before the British drew a boundary between what is now India and Myanmar.

A reminder of the region’s pre-independence history, and the 2015 violence, the Tiddim Road lies barely 100 metres away from the Bijang graveyard-cum-playground.

Although President Pranab Mukherjee rejected the Manipur People’s Bill and returned the other two Bills to the assembly for reconsideration, the protesters have refused to bury the dead until their demand for a “separate administration” is met by the state and the Centre.

Faces painted as mark of protest by tribals, Churachandpur, August 31, 2016. Credit: Akhil Kumar

Over 600 days have passed and the bodies continue to lie in the morgue. Their mothers, accompanied by other women of the town, gather outside the morgue to have a memorial prayer for them on some days .

Till December 23, Khaizamang’s body was there too. The fact hat he belonged to the Kuki tribe – unlike the others who were from other tribes that come under the umbrella nomenclature Zomi – was clearly the reason that he received the burial.

However, how the body was taken out of the locked morgue remains a mystery. Depending on whom you ask, there are two versions of the “truth” and no official authority to consult on the details. Some locals even allege that a group of armed militants “was used by the government” to “steal” the body from the morgue post midnight on December 23.

Speaking to The Wire, H. Manchinkhup, chief convener of the joint action committee (JAC) formed to spearhead the agitation against the three Bills, also accused the state government of “stealing” the body, saying, “The state government instead of finding a viable solution to the anti-tribal Bills, is playing communal politics.”

In the election season, this development has a strong political significance.

The government, the Kuki elders and leaders, have, however, denied any involvement. However, representatives of various Kuki organisations and some organisations from Imphal had gathered at the funeral procession of the young boy on December 23.

A little ways away from the Bijang graveyard, as one walks towards Khaizamang’s house at the end of the road, one spots his younger brother – bleary eyed, hair unruly – brushing his teeth amid the shouts of the playful boys running after the ball.

A few steps up a creaky wooden ladder would take you to the house – a one-room tenement standing on wooden stilts – attached to a small verandah, one corner of which serves as the family’s washing – and brushing – area. A framed photo of Khaizamang has been hung on one of the walls.

The two beds inside the room were covered with mosquito nets. From under one, Khaizamang’s younger sister peeped at these correspondents, while the youngest of the siblings, a six-year-old girl, stood right next to her mother. One corner of the room was the kitchen.

Khaizamang Touthang’s mother Nemmeilhing along with her six-year-old daughter. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Nemmeilhing, a mother of six and a widow, related to The Wire her version of how the body of her son landed in the graveyard.

“Early morning the colony elders came to my house with the body. It was then taken to the graveyard for burial after a memorial service.”

On being asked whether she knew that his body would be brought home that morning and whether or not her permission was taken, she nodded her head.

However, according to the popular version of the events, she was as shocked by the news as many others.

“That morning, she called the mother of another young man whose body is in the morgue, to say that they will go together for the memorial prayers. However, she called her a while later to inform her with surprise that Khaizamang’s body was stolen a night before and would be brought home soon,” related Benjamin Vualnam of the JAC, Churachandpur.

“She must be under pressure from the community elders not to relate the truth to you,” he added.

A day after the body was buried, Ibobi, along with all the six party MLAs elected from the Churachandpur district, held a rally in the town, which the agitation leaders termed “a pre-planned move in collusion with Kuki leaders.”

According to local media reports quoting Thangjang Haokip, the president of Kuki Inpi, Churachandpur, the chief minister announced a compensation of Rs 10 lakh to Khaizamang’s family, another one lakh for his funeral and agreed to award a government job to the next of kin besides setting up a memorial at the cost of Rs 50 lakh.

“With the government accepting the conditions laid down by the civil societies, we have now decided to bury the body and will immediately be discussing the details for the funeral service,” he told The Sangai Express on December 23.

Nemmeilhing seemed a bit apprehensive talking about the compensation. When asked, she reluctantly stated, “We have got one lakh in cash and five lakh has been transferred so far into my eldest son’s bank account. The rest will come.”

Khaizamang Touthang’s photo has been hung inside his house. Credit: Amanat Khullar

As per the chief minister’s promise, Khaizamang’s eldest brother was given a government job in January.

But Nemmeilhing wasn’t sure what the job entailed. “I think, as a computer operator, not sure, he is not at home now,” she said. With a faint smile, the 43-year-old added, “However, he has not got his first salary yet.”

In terms of choice of parties, the burial of Khaizamang’s body is said to have firmly drawn a line between the Kuki and other tribes that come under Zomi. Though many common residents and leaders that The Wire spoke to in Churachandpur did not want to openly state it, they did hint that this move confirmed the support of most of the Kukis to the Congress in the elections. Kukis are said to have a say in ten to 12 assembly seats in the state’s 12 hill districts.

“Not just the Kuki leaders but the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) is also supporting the Congress in these elections,” claimed a local church leader who declined to be named.

KNO is an umbrella group of at least 15-16 militant organisations that operate in the Indo-Myanmar border whose main demand is a Kuki state culled out of Manipur. It has been under suspension of operation (SOO) since 2008 after an agreement was signed with the state and the central governments.

United People’s Front (UPF), another umbrella group of at least five militant groups that operate in the same region and fight for political rights of the Zomi people, has also been under SOO since 2008. Both the groups have been engaged in peace talks with the Narendra Modi government since June 2016.

In a disturbed state like Manipur, separatist groups do have some say in the people’s choices during the elections. In Churachandpur district particularly, this has been prominent and this time too, they seem to be active.

Women and children pay respect to the dead with flower tribute on the symbolic coffins. Credit: Akhil Kumar

If the KNO is believed to be lending support to the Congress, UPF, which is demanding from the central government “a state within a state under Article 244A of the constitution”, is clearly siding with the BJP.

The fact that the Congress stalwart Phungzathang Tonsing quit his party of many years on February 11, even after getting the party’s ticket from Churachandpur town – a UPF stronghold – to now contest the polls as a candidate of BJP ally National People’s Party (NPP), is strongly indicative of it. It also confirmed that the seat, long held by the Congress, would go away from the party this time. The Congress didn’t name any candidate after Tonsing withdrew his candidature.

The BJP candidate for Churachandpur town, V. Hangkhanlian, will likely corner some votes, but not enough to counter a veteran like Tonsing.

Tonsing’s house was torched by protesters in 2015. He was at the time the minister of health and family welfare in the Ibobi government.

In the rest of the five constituencies of the Churachandpur district, it is going to be a keen fight between the two national parties.

Congress president T.N. Haokip, a senior leader of the Kuki community in the party who enjoys the support of Kuki Inpi, Churachandpur, and is also said to be of the KNO, is contesting from his stronghold Saikot. His former assistant Paokholal Haokip is challenging him as a BJP candidate. As per ground reports, he may be the proverbial David defeating Goliath if the UPF can drum up enough support in his favour.

In Thanlon, Congress candidate Chinkholal Thangsing is going to have a direct fight with BJP’s Vungzagin Valte, a heavyweight. Valte won the seat in 2012 elections as a Congress candidate. In the 2015 violence in Churachandpur, Valte’s house was also burnt down by protesters.

In Henglep, BJP’s T.T. Haokip is likely to give a tough fight to sitting MLA Mangan Vaipei of Congress, whose house was also torched in the 2015 violence.

In Singhat, Ginsuanghau of Congress is facing BJP’s Chinlungthang Zou. A keen contest is likely between sitting Congress MLA Chalon Lien Amo and BJP’s L. Phimate in Tipaimukh constituency.

All these six assembly constituencies of Churachandpur, along with Kangpokpi – a newly created district – and Saitu and Saikul (in Chandel district), will go to polls on March 4. Kangpokpi is sure to be pocketed by the BJP which has fielded former Congress MLA Nemcha Kipgen, who is seen as being close to UPF leadership, which has considerable sway in the area and is supporting BJP in these polls.

Interestingly, a strong trend spotted across Manipur in the run-up to the elections is the appeal of the candidate over that of the party, which is likely to decide some of the results in Churachandpur district as well.

Post the 2015 killings, there also seems to be a comparatively greater assertion from the youth and civil society groups about whom the voters should choose as their representatives, even if an armed group opposes or supports a particular candidate. All the MLAs whose houses were burnt by protesters have been given ticket by the Congress, the BJP, the NPP and the North East India Development Party, a sore point among many local social groups.

An example of this assertion was a rally for a free and fair election brought out by such groups and church organisations on February 27, appealing to the people to refrain from violence, use of force and money power in the elections. Already, incidents of violence have been reported between political parties in rural areas of the district.

However, compared to the poll hullabaloo in the valley districts, electioneering in the Churachandpur district remains low key this time around. Party flags and posters are not displayed as prominently throughout the main town as they are in Imphal and other valley towns. The flags and posters that speak of “nine martyrs’ sacrifice” seen across the town may have faded with time but they still outnumber the electioneering flags and posters – a strong indication of the fact that the cause remains.

A poster in Churchandpur depicting the nine young people who were killed during protests a day after the state government passed three controversial bills on August 31, 2015. Credit: Amanat Khullar

However, that most star campaigners chose the valley districts over the hills for poll campaign is a point of gripe among the people in Churachandpur.

“Whether it is Narendra Modi, Amit Shah or Rahul Gandhi, none thought of coming to the hills because they are scared that coming here might be read by the majority Meitei community as siding with us and giving us our political right. They all are wooing the Meitei votes because those 40 seats in the valley areas will only ensure either of them a government. We continue to be ignored,” said a well-known Churachandpur-based evangelist.

He said, “Many people in Churachandpur district want to go for the BJP this time but there is still doubt in their minds; they are not sure whether the BJP will give us what we want, whether it will be a good or bad decision for our people. The senior BJP national leaders don’t even openly admit meeting our leaders.”

However, senior BJP leader and home minister Rajnath Singh did visit Churachandpur to address voters on March 2.

On being asked whom will she vote for in the March 4 elections, Khaizamang’s mother thought for a moment before saying, “I don’t know, I usually avoid voting.”

Elections would come and go but memories would remain. The memories of that violent September night in 2015 are still pretty fresh among the public in Churachandpur.

When asked what her last memory of her son was, moments of silence passed before she lifted her eyes to say, “I don’t know, I can’t remember.”

Living in a violence-ridden society, the least one can do is move on with their life.

The site of Khaizamang Touthang’s burial. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Nearby, the boys continued to scream and shout, playing football. A group of colony elders were seen huddled in a conversation right below her house. Shops began to open on Tiddim Road. Women hawkers selling vegetables called out customers. A jeep flaunting a BJP flag rushed by. The local Congress office remained shut.

Yet another day began in Churachandpur.

Only the March 11 results will confirm to what extent the dead – the one in the graveyard and the rest in the morgue – could influence the living as they cast their vote.

Meet Najima Bibi, First Muslim Woman To Fight the Manipur Elections

“Women bow down to men because they are uneducated. Lack of education deprives them of their political right.”

Najima Bibi is the first Meitei Muslim woman to contest an assembly poll. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Wabagai (Thoubal), Manipur: Donning a brown abaya and with a white synthetic cloth clutching her forehead, Najima Bibi sat on a mat on the mud floor of a neighbour’s hut with a cluster of men and women, both young and old, surrounding her.

A used plastic container with a bright red lid filled with ten rupee notes sat in front of the 44-year-old who scanned her surroundings with a slight smile.

With the words ‘Ten4change’ scrawled in blue ink on a paper taped to it, the container served as a donation box. By the time Najima ended the community meeting, each one of those present had made their contribution for ‘change.’

Just as cups of lukewarm black tea – a definite afternoon pick-me-up – were being handed out by the owner of the hut, Najima passed around forms listing questions about the basic facilities in the village and about the expectation of the people from their representative.

Community members make donations to Najima Bibi’s party – PRJA. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Najima, also known to many as Najima Phundreimayum, has been a social activist for over 15 years in and around Santhel Mamang – the leikai (colony) she belongs to in the Wabagai area of Manipur’s Thoubal district. After years of activism, she changed gears and decided to contest the upcoming Manipur assembly elections.

Alternating between contemplating and then hurriedly jotting down their answers, a few seemed a bit unsure of what to put down in the form and what to leave out. Even as they began returning the filled sheets of paper to her one by one, it became apparent that she didn’t quite need such thermometers to measure the ills of the poor people of her Muslim community, particularly the womenfolk. The level of comfort between her and them was obvious.

Yet, these forms are seen as a key for gauging the mood and expectancies of the people who would choose between her and three other major candidates in the March 8 elections in the Wabagai assembly constituency.

Even though forms are often seen by voters as a novelty in Manipur, Najima – a first-time contestant in an assembly election – felt that “They are vital.”

“The answers will help me focus more on what exactly they are seeking from me as a contestant, and if I win, as their representative in the assembly,” she reasoned.

For those unfamiliar with the candidates in the fray for the upcoming elections in the state, Najima’s immediate introduction to them would be as the Wabagai seat contestant from the anti-AFSPA activist Irom Sharmila’s party, Peoples Resurgence and Justice Alliance (PRJA). She is also the treasurer of PRJA.

She is also someone who has made her name in Wabagai as an intrepid trendsetter among the Meitei Muslim women. A dynamic woman to have challenged her conservative background to demand her gender rights, she has been a relentless voice for women’s empowerment within her community.

However, her name would go down in history for something even more exceptional – being the first Muslim woman contestant of Manipur.

Stepping into the public life as a woman has never been easy, not even in the Northeast, where the general myth about women being relatively more empowered than in the rest of country looms large.

“My struggle has been long and lonely. First, I was mildly taunted for what many saw as breaking rules set for girls in our community, and then gradually it turned into serious opposition,” she said.

Across Santhal Mamang leikai, billboards announcing various government schemes weren’t hard to spot. Stuck to the walls of the mud huts were also posters asking the villagers to “break silence” on the “war crimes in Syria” and the “genocide of the Rohingyas” in Myanmar – the country that Manipur shares a border with.

A few labourers have been repairing one end of the main road that runs through the leikai and which is broken in several parts.

The main road in Najima’s constituency of Wabagai in Imphal. Credit: Amanat Khullar

On being asked about the repair work, Najima smiles and says, “That’s the reason I am contesting elections. There’s only patchwork in the name of development by the people’s representatives.”

“I have been working against domestic violence faced by our women, for our right to food, etc. We are poor people. We have many problems. We can get effective results from various government schemes that already exist if our representatives are supportive of us. But what we get is only ample show of money power and muscle power by the MLAs and people connected to them.”

When Sharmila announced the launch of her party, Najima resolved to join her. She had her reasons. “I thought this would be the best way to expand the scope of my work. What I have been doing at an individual level could be done in a bigger way if I can be the MLA,” she told The Wire.

Najima, unlike most women from her community, found her voice by dint of her sufferings. If being the only girl in her class was an assertion of her right to educate herself early in life, being the first girl in her family to have completed the tenth standard was certainly an eyebrow raiser, among relatives and others.

When Najima was about to be married off aganst her wishes, she did what she knows best – defy. “I ran away to marry a man I met only twice before. That marriage turned out to be a disaster.”

Within six months, she took another step which women from her community would usually avoid – a talaq.

Thereafter, day-to-day survival taught her a lesson on self-reliance. She initiated ‘Cheng Marup’, a rice thrift fund for the women of her leikai.

“Everyday, the women in the group would take out one handful of rice from the quantity to be cooked in their homes. These were collected and kept in my house, and twice a month, whoever’s turn came, she would get the entire rice and would sell it to earn some money. It was looked at with suspicion by many people in the leikai as I was divorced and our saving was considered a theft. But we kept it running. Slowly, people realised its benefits,” she recalled.

Najima made small moves to claim her space in her conservative society, like riding a bicycle.

Outside Najima’s house in Wabagai in Thoubal. Credit: Amanat Khullar

“Even now, everyone makes fun of me when I ride a bicycle to the meetings but I don’t mind. Muslim women were not allowed to ride a bicycle just to slow them down. I realised that I can begin fighting most of it off by just riding a bicycle. Alongside, I was also able to make it on time everywhere and get a lot of things done,” she said in a recent campaign meeting with women voters of her constituency.

Soon after she announced her decision to contest the polls, she was met with a warning from local clerics. “They not only warned me against contesting the elections but also said if I do, I would not be given space for my grave in the local kabristan. They also warned that anyone who supports me or talks to me would meet the same fate,” Najima told The Wire.

This, however, was not the first time that the clerics had declared a fatwa against her.

“After attending a workshop on gender by an NGO in Imphal in 2001, I realised what I had experienced and what many of my fellow women had experienced daily was gender violence. I began to help out such women,” she said.

“I now run a destitute home for such women here. All such activities led to a fear in the minds of the clerics that I am turning into a follower of Meira Paibi (a powerful women’s rights organisation in the Meitei community). They tried to stop me but couldn’t. So in early 2006, the clerics announced on the local loudspeaker used for namaaz that all women self-help groups in the area were banned on religious grounds. They named me for provoking women, still I didn’t bother. Then they issued a fatwa as per which I was stopped from taking water from the local pond. No shopkeeper would sell me goods. I defied it too and went to bring water from the pond.”

Najima surrounded by women from her community. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Her defiance led some people to beat up her present husband, twice. “I am proud of him, he chose to stand by me,” she said.

A few months later, the matter was settled after the intervention of Jamiatul Ulama, Manipur and some other Muslim organisations that sided with her for helping Muslim women get empowered.

For the present fatwa, Najima countered the contention that such a call from them had come only because she was a woman. “There is a leadership crisis. I have been raising questions on the distribution of ration through the PDS system. This ban by the clerics is one of the tools used by the local politicians to stop me from contesting the polls. Else, those in power run the risk of getting exposed,” she said.

The sitting MLA from Wabagai, Fajur Rahman, who is from the Congress party, is also contesting the elections. Taking on him is yet another stalwart, U. Deben, a former MLA. Then there is the BJP rebel candidate Habibur Rehman, who is contesting as a Janata Dal (United) candidate. Rehman was the vice-president of BJP’s state minority morcha.

So where does she see herself in this complicated fight?

“I know I am fighting formidable forces; they know many a trick to win elections. It is the biggest struggle for me to convince the voters about what is actually good for them. But I am confident to surmount it with the help of my supporters,” she replied.

Irrespective of who wins, the fact that Manipur is seeing in its elections the participation of a woman from its sizeable Muslim community for the first time in the 70 years of independence, is certainly notable.

What took so long for this to happen?

“The main problem is, ours is a male-dominated society, women are afraid of confronting men. When they say you can’t contest elections, it becomes the final word,” she said. “Women bow down to men because they are uneducated. Lack of education deprives them of their political right.”

Tracing Irom Sharmila’s Struggle: From Years of Fasting To Seeking Votes To Repeal AFSPA

A look at the important milestones in the Iron Lady’s journey.

Irom Sharmila. Credit: PTI

Manipur: A civil rights activist and a poet from Manipur, Irom Chanu Sharmila caught the attention of the world for her unusual hunger strike against the alleged human rights violations committed by security forces under the garb of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act or AFSPA.

Her hunger strike lasted nearly 16 years, considered the longest in the world. In August 2016, she broke her fast to embark on another journey – that of a political activist. She declared her decision to contest the impending assembly elections to create a political will to lift AFSPA from her state.

In the run-up to the March 4 and March 8 assembly elections in the state, where she is taking on the three-time chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh in his home constituency of Thoubal, The Wire takes a look at the important milestones of Sharmila’s journey, known to many as the ‘Iron Lady’ or ‘Mengoubi’ – the fair one.

In Manipur, a Battle Between Ethnic Identity and the Dream of Development

Manipur faces a tough choice between the BJP, a party that has a track record of dividing people on religious lines, and the Congress, whose 15-year rule in the state has been marred by corruption and misgovernance.

Manipur faces a tough choice between the BJP, a party that has a track record of dividing people on religious lines, and the Congress, whose 15-year rule in the state has been marred by corruption and misgovernance.

In Manipur, the fight between BJP and Congress is continuing to gain momentum. Credit: PTI

Imphal (Manipur): A dusty, decrepit concrete bridge divides the Imphal West district in Manipur from the Thoubal district – a geographically distinctive patch of land in the state and one that shares its border with as many as five other districts.

However, during election season, Thoubal should be referred to by its appropriate identity – the stronghold of chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh.

In the run-up to the assembly elections – slated for March 4 and March 8 – the general whiff in the air in Imphal is that Ibobi is invincible in Thoubal – often meaning both the constituency and the rest of the eight seats in the district.

After 15 years of ruling Manipur with an iron hand – the longest in continuum and the most dubious in terms of rights violation in the state’s post-independent history – certain things seem to be carved in stone when it concerns Ibobi.

“Almost every household there has got a job from Ibobi; they have all the basic facilities like drinking water, power supply, etc. that even parts of Imphal don’t have. The state police, otherwise known for its brutality on the common people, handles a person with care if he says he is from Thoubal. So Ibobi doesn’t even need to campaign there,” is the popular impression across the state, which a Manipur University student related to this correspondent on knowing about the impending trip to the VIP district to gauge the mood of the electorate.

Residents of Okram Ibobi Singh’s constituency Thoubal say they are likely to vote Congress, “Mahatma Gandhi’s party”. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Lilong, the first of the nine constituencies of the district when approached from Imphal West, however, welcomes you with orange flags fluttering from bamboo posts reading ‘Vote for BJP’. Lilong is the largest Muslim majority constituency of the state where the BJP’s only Muslim candidate, Mohammad Anwar Hussain, is taking on Congress’ sitting MLA and a minister in the Ibobi cabinet, Abdul Nasir.

If looked at from a broader canvas, these flags are a testimony to the huge challenge – the first ever – that Ibobi and the Congress are facing, not just in the chief minister’s home district, but also across Manipur, from the BJP.

Anti-AFSPA activist Irom Chanu Sharmila may be contesting against him from Thoubal constituency, but that is the least of his worries.

The fact that he is going to win Thoubal is virtually a foregone conclusion. His problem lies with the rest of the 39 seats spread across the five valley districts, occupied mainly by his community, the Meiteis – the state’s largest ethnic bloc that can sway the election results.

Irom Sharmila outside the PJRA office in Imphal. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Irom Sharmila outside the Peoples Resurgence and Justice Alliance office in Imphal. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Pocketing as many of these valley seats is, therefore, crucial for the Congress in these elections in order to reclaim power in the 60-member assembly.

In order to bag the magic number of 31, the party, like never before, has played the ethnic card with the majority community and with the Kukis – yet another important bloc of people that have considerable hold in ten to 12 assembly seats in the 12 hill districts.

In total, these districts have 20 seats. In the earlier elections, Congress followed the traditional pattern of reaping electoral hay from the majority of the 29 tribes that fill the state’s hill areas, including the Nagas.

Ibobi’s deputy, Gaikhangam, is a Naga. Phungzathang Tonsing, a senior minister in the Ibobi cabinet till recently and the former president of the state Pradesh Congress Committee, is a Zomi.

This shift from the Congress’ traditional pattern of campaigning in the state, put into action by Ibobi in early 2015, is aimed at warding off BJP’s increased foray into the state.

After claiming Assam and grabbing power from the back door in Arunachal Pradesh, the next on the BJP’s list in the Northeast, openly declared by its national leaders, is Manipur.

To begin with, this objective of the party, to be carried forward by the North East Development Alliance (NEDA), might have looked easy. After all, all the eight states in the region have had a one-party rule for long.

Still, post the Bihar debacle, in order to pocket Assam, BJP had to play with the deep anxieties of the indigenous people vis-a-vis the “outsiders” along with dangling the dream that only Narendra Modi can deliver development.

After its Assam win, it hoped to ride on the strong voter fatigue of the Congress in Manipur as well by adding the ‘D’ word that Modi spelt out during the May campaign in Assam – “development, development, development.”

When this correspondent visited the valley districts of Manipur in September, BJP was halfway into creating “a wave” for the party for the impending elections with a two-pronged strategy. One was development. The other was fuelling the strong feeling of domination by the Meitei community in the hill districts that had sprung out of the unfortunate deaths of eight young people in Churachandpur town a day after the state government passed three controversial bills on August 31, 2015. The Ibobi government was increasingly being seen in the hills as a “Meitei government”.

A poster in Churchandpur depicting the nine young people who were killed during protests a day after the state government passed three controversial bills on August 31, 2015. Credit: Amanat Khullar

According to a BJP state source at the time, “We are looking at the Churachandpur developments as an opportunity to electorally enter the Christian-majority districts, which otherwise will be very difficult.”

The Modi government did what it could to facilitate that entry. It conducted two rounds of formal peace talks with the United People’s Front (UPF) and the Kuki National Organisation (KNO) in June and October. These two umbrella groups that comprise over 20 insurgent outfits active on the Indo-Myanmar border have been under suspension of operation since 2008 following an agreement with the central and state governments. Even as the locals had hoped that these talks would usher in peace and development in the region, the UPA governments did not open any formal interactions with them.

Both UPF and the KNO have been demanding their own versions of a “separate administration” of the hill areas, which are inhabited by a number of tribes that come under the nomenclature Zomi and those who like to differentiate themselves as Kukis. The Meitei community is considered as being opposed to this demand.

According to a reliable source, the passage of the three Bills in the state assembly was a reaction by the Ibobi government to the “talks,” including a meeting of these groups with former Mizoram chief minister and a BJP ally Zoramthanga in Shillong around the same time. In that meeting, they formally firmed a strategy to demand a “separate administration” in the form of “a state within a state” under Article 244A of the constitution and presented the Mizo National Front leader as their interlocutor with the Centre.

Along with penetrating into the hills, BJP cosied up to the Hindu Meitei voters in the valley through its network of the RSS. It promised “a clean government” as opposed to the Ibobi dispensation, often seen by the community as dictatorial and corrupt and one accused of having the blood of its own people on its hands.

The astute politician that Ibobi is, he was watching the BJP moves rather closely. By the time the year took a turn after the Churachandpur deaths, Ibobi made his first strike. He succeeded in carrying away the Kukis from the agitation against his government. When The Wire visited Churachandpur at the end of August, the Kukis did not take part in the Tribal Unity Day organised by the agitators demanding a “separate administration”.

Also read: Fears Over Land, Identity Fuel Manipur’s Bonfire of Anxieties

“We are opposed to the Bills but the demand for a separate administration is new. We don’t support it,” Kuki Inpi president Thangsei Haokip told The Wire at the time.

According to sources, Ibobi could work on the delicate fissures between the UPF and the KNO over the demand for a “separate administration” (KNO prefers a Kuki state) and “bring KNO to his side in these elections.” However, the UPF is believed to have stuck to the BJP.

If this divide becomes prominent in these elections, then the BJP’s hope of wresting a majority in the hill districts may not be fulfilled.

The Naga vote is crucial for ten to 11 seats. Naga People’s Front (NPF), which has fielded 15 candidates, is a strong contender in some hill districts. Though NPF is an ally of the BJP in Nagaland, it has decided to go alone in Manipur. And so has the NDA partner National People’s Party (NPP).

Losing all hope of winning as a Congress candidate from Churachandpur, Phungzathang resigned from the party last week even after securing a Congress ticket and decided to join the NPP.

Alongside polarising the hill vote, the Ibobi dispensation also worked on the valley districts to stop the march of the BJP. Come November, the BJP’s apple cart was toppled in those areas by – as a local reporter in Imphal told this correspondent – “The surgical strike of Ibobi Singh by creating seven new districts bifurcating the hill districts.”

In one stroke the state government turned the ethnic fissures between the Naga and the Kuki tribes and the Meitei and the rest of the tribes – mainly the Nagas – to its party’s advantage. In the public eye, Ibobi came across as a leader who could take on the Nagas.

More the Nagas expressed their anger through the United Naga Council (UNC) against the state government’s decision by intensifying the economic blockade, the more it helped Ibobi cosy up to the Kukis and the Meitei voters on ethnic lines.

Also read: In Blockade-Hit Imphal, Anger, Helplessness and a Simmering Hope for Normalcy

Towards the end of December, the body of the sole Kuki boy, Khaizamang Touthang – one of the eight being kept in the Churachandpur district hospital morgue since September 2015 to protest against the passage of the three Bills – was “stolen” and “delivered” to the family for burial, seemingly with help from KNO cadres.

Kukis and the Nagas are seen as traditional rivals. The early 1990s saw much bloodshed between the two. The demand for a full-fledged district status to the Sadar Hills (Kangpokpi), which the Ibobi government recently fulfilled, has been a sore point between the two communities for decades.

Besides the Meiteis viewing the UNC blockade as “an attempt to sap the economy of the valley areas,” the Modi government’s “secret” framework agreement with the NSCN (Isak-Muivah) to reach a Naga Accord, which might compromise the territorial integrity of Manipur, has further helped Ibobi firm up his electoral strategy.

The Centre’s wait-and-watch policy with the UNC on the economic blockade has proved to be costly for the state BJP. Sensing which way the wind was blowing, the party’s most popular face, Kh. Joykishan jumped ship and joined Congress in late December, thus reversing the trend of Congress bigwigs moving over to the BJP till then.

Last week, while travelling through Kakching, a new district sliced out of Thoubal, the results of Ibobi’s “surgical strike” were quite visible. Mounds of rice, vegetables and flowers offered by voters, a local tradition called ‘Athenpot’ to show the community’s support to a contestant, were placed in various parts of the district in support of Congress.

Mounds of rice and flowers offered by voters, a local tradition called ‘Athenpot,’ to show the community’s support to a contestant. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Ibobi has continued to play his strategy. On February 11, the Congress in a legislative party meeting passed a resolution to ban the UNC and wrote to the Centre in that regard, thus sending out another strong message to the voters opposed to the Naga assertion in the state.

A day later, addressing a sizeable crowd in Sagolband constituency in the Imphal West district, the chief minister again spoke of the “threat” of the NSCN (I-M) on the territorial integrity of the state and accused the BJP of supporting its greater Nagalim dream, which includes integrating the Naga inhabited areas of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur.

The fact that the NPF is an ally of BJP and there is a likelihood of the party entering into a post-electoral understanding with it in Manipur – if it manages to bag the adequate numbers to form a government – is yet another point that may work in the favour of Congress.

Manipur chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh addressing a rally in Imphal West district. Credit: Sangeeta Barooah Pisharoty

If the huge mound of ‘Athenpot’ at the Sagolband rally was any indication of the valley voters’ support to Congress, the BJP then certainly needs to up its game in the Meitei dominated districts.

The party is already suffering dissent in some of the hill and valley constituencies due to its selection of candidates. To make things worse, the party doesn’t have a chief ministerial candidate.

“I know that if I vote for the Congress who will it be who will take on the Nagas. But that’s not the case if I vote for BJP. They have too many leaders, too much infighting. It is not just about the party, it is also about the person,” said a voter in Nambol constituency in Bishnupur district. Former state BJP president Th. Chaoba Singh, who is contesting the Nambol seat, is one of the possible contenders of the CM post.

BJP state party general secretary and the sole MLA Th. Biswajit Singh. Credit: Amanat Khullar

“As of now, we are contesting the polls with Modi ji as our face. He is the face of change and development that the state desperately needs,” state party general secretary and the sole MLA Th. Biswajit Singh said.

Biswajit, yet another chief ministerial contender, also claimed, “Our people are stoic enough to take the economic blockade in their stride. They are now going back to questioning the Ibobi government on all the corruption it has done over the years with public money.”

To revive the public’s memory, on February 13, union minister Prakash Javadekar, in charge of the state polls, flagged off 20 vehicles to tour across the 60 constituencies with a 15-minute video on “blockade, bandh, corruption, lack of drinking water supply”. The party is also giving the final touches to a “vision document” aimed at the state’s development. According to a party source, BJP national general secretary and RSS pracharak Ram Lal “is making a ground check to see what more needs to be done.”

The trump card that the party has kept for last, when the poll frenzy is likely to heighten, is a visit by Modi. “We are hoping it will take place in the last week of February,” said state BJP president Bhabananda Singh.

Conversations with the state party leaders clearly indicate that they are waiting for the national leaders, such as Ram Lal and Ram Madhav, and the NEDA convener Himanta Biswa Sarma, to “do something” to turn the tables on the Ibobi government.

“The support for the Ibobi government in the valley districts peaked a bit earlier than needed to get the most effect of it in the elections. This will certainly give the BJP time to try its best to direct public attention towards the issues it worked on, such as corruption, extra-judicial killings, misgovernance, etc.” commented a well-known Meitei intellectual in Imphal, who declined to be named.

“After keeping quiet for so long, a team of Central Bureau of Investigation has suddenly arrived in Imphal on February 15 to question and record the statements of Akoijam Jhalajit (the commandant of second India Reserve Battalion) in connection with the killing of C. Sanjit (a former militant killed in Imphal in 2009). In such a scenario, the Congress will have to keep its ethnic strategy going strong,”

He pointed out an interesting dichotomy the BJP is facing in Manipur vis-à-vis the Assam polls. “In Assam, it worked for the BJP because of the ethnicity card, which is now being played by the Congress.”

Congress supporters in Imphal. Credit: Amanat Khullar

Nevertheless, raising issues of corruption and misgovernance by the Ibobi government will certainly deliver BJP some success in the valley areas. However, there exists a strong voter dilemma over whom to choose between the two warring national parties, both in the hills and the valley.

“Ideally, I would not like to vote for the BJP since it religiously divides people. I would like to support the Congress which is Mahatma Gandhi’s party but I seem to have no choice this time because the Congress didn’t listen to us,” said a voter in Churachandpur town.

The same predicament is palpable even in the valley.

“People in my constituency want to support BJP but we are also worried about its closeness to the Nagas. In that case, we will have to go for Ibobi Singh who will stand for us,” stated a voter in Moirang in Bishnupur district.

With electioneering gaining pace, the ground will certainly shift in the coming days, particularly in the valley – either more firmly towards the ethnic sentiments or towards the ‘D’ word, which Modi typically mouths when it comes to executing BJP’s political ambitions in the Northeast.

The BJP’s Rising Graph in Manipur

The party is holding small meetings across the state to campaign for the upcoming elections, using alleged corruption and inefficiency in the Congress government as their plank.

A camera meeting of the BJP in progress at Patsoi. Credit: Sangeeta Barooah Pisharoty

Imphal: A spell of strong showers had made the mud road very slippery. That there was little light at that late hour made it worse.

Patsoi may be eight km from Imphal, but there are barely any paved roads or streetlights – features you would typically identify with any satellite area of a capital city.

Realising the inconvenience, the driver switched on the headlights of the SUV that had just brought us. I joined a group of women carefully negotiating their way into the courtyard of a house. The time, by then, must have been 7:30 PM.

“It is a typical Meitei house; a long veranda in front, don’t miss the Tulsi plant placed in the middle of the courtyard. It is a must, around it our marriages take place,” pointed out a woman, ushering me in.

Is it her house?

“No, a neighbour’s. I am a booth level worker for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), part of the organising committee for this camera meeting,” she said.

Since not a single camera could be seen at the spot, no one could say for sure why it was called a “camera meeting”. Apparently, the term is popular in Manipur. The closest description is a small public meeting.

Inside the house sat a roomful of women on a mud floor in neat rows. They were all residents of Patsoi.

“This constituency has more women than men, so we are trying to reach out to as many women voters as possible,” a BJP worker told this correspondent.

In front of the women stood a table. Few chairs formed an arc around it. Someone hurriedly tied a banner on to the wall facing the women. The banner said, “Bharatiya Janata Party – Patsoi Mandal, Takyelkhongal, booth no: 19/10”.

The meeting began. One by one, a number of local BJP leaders were introduced to the women by a party worker from the locality. They each gave a small speech. As the meeting progressed, a number of men crowded around the doorway, listening intently to each word.

“When did your MLA (Akoijam Mirabai Devi from Congress) visit you last? Why is it that you don’t get drinking water even though you live in the Imphal West district, so close to the capital? Why is there no concrete road here? Why no streetlights for you? No drains? Do you get any BPL (below poverty line) family benefits? When did you last get rice under Antodaya Anna Yojana? Did anyone of you get benefits under the Indira Aawas Yojana? How many of you are still in waiting list? Why don’t you get all these facilities when these schemes are meant for you? How long will you keep quiet?” BJP’s councillor from Patsoi Chungkham Bijoy said, attacking the “corrupt Okram Ibobi Singh government”.

Murmurs in the room began. Many had not got benefits under those schemes even though they are daily wage earners. Some complained that the MLA “has rarely visited the colony after the elections.”

“She will again come to you soon seeking votes. Why do you give your vote to Congress when they approach you during elections with some money? Think about it. My suggestion to you is, take that money but don’t vote for it in the coming elections. Vote for BJP, for Narendra Modi who is changing the way this country works. Across the country people are talking about him. He wants to do a lot for the people of Manipur, for the Northeast. Choose BJP. Join us,” said another speaker vociferously.

Even as the leaders continued to speak, tea and samosas were distributed to all those present. The meeting went on for over an hour. It ended with a party worker requesting “whoever is interested to please sign up as a booth level volunteer for the party”.

Building an electoral base

Though the assembly elections in Manipur are about five months away, the BJP has been electioneering in the state for some months now. At the heart of its canvassing are these small meetings.

“These meetings are as much to canvass for the elections as to build the party’s base among people. We are new in the state, you see,” pointed out a local leader. She said for the last few months, local party leaders and workers have been holding such small booth level meetings, particularly in the valley districts, with the two-pronged agenda of “educating” the voters about the party and picking booth level workers.

“Some meetings are held during the day, some at night to catch those people who go out during the day to work,” she said. These meetings, she said, “have been one of the most important ways of building the party in the state”. She also added, “What has helped us attract more people to the party in such a short span of time in Manipur is also that the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) workers have been working in these areas for some years now.”

No surprise then, that when on September 14, BJP president Amit Shah held a meeting in Imphal, there were reportedly about 30,000 booth level workers attending it. Most of them have joined the party through such colony meetings.

Amit Shah at a booth-level workers meet in Imphal, September 14. Credit: PTI

“The crowd surprised us. It was much more than we expected. The national leadership was happy too. These volunteers are our strength, they are the ones who will take the party to the voters,” said a joyous Khumukcham Joykishan, one of the three state election management committee members of BJP. The reason for the high turnout, he claimed with a laugh, “was because more and more people are seeing the BJP like rain after a long period of drought”. He was referring to the 15-year-old Congress rule in the state, often accused by many in the state of “having the blood of our own boys on its hands”. Meaning, hundreds of secret killings carried out by the state police, 1,528 of them declared fake by the Supreme Court recently.

Joykishan left Trinamool Congress, a Congress ally, to join BJP just before the June 2015 by-elections. He won the Thangmeiband assembly seat for the party. Yet another former TMC member, Thongam Biswajit Singh, won the Thongjui seat for the BJP. Much to the joy of the national leadership, they helped the party debut in the Manipur assembly. In the 60-member house, BJP now has two members while the ruling Congress has 48 members.

According to some party insiders, Joykishan “is now tipped to be the party’s chief ministerial face”. Joykishan, expectedly, evaded the question when asked.

“It is up to the central leadership. The party will certainly announce a CM candidate before the elections, it is our style. We should be able to announce the name by end October or early November,” he told this correspondent from Mumbai, while on his way to attend the party’s national executive that began in Kerala this Friday.

Though from September 14 to 15, Shah, along with union HRD minister Prakash Javdekar (he is also the national leader in-charge of Manipur), national general secretary Ram Madhav and North East Democratic Alliance convener Himanta Biswa Sarma toured the state to “finalise” its poll strategy, the state leaders are tightlipped about it.

The stakes are obviously high. After the party’s rousing win in Assam early this year, it has now set its eyes on making Manipur “Congress mukt”. Shah has predicted the party’s win quite a few times already.

Positive signs for the party

The signs, so far, have been good for the party too. After making inroads in the by-elections, BJP won 62 of the 278 municipal councils in January this year, another first. (Congress got 108 seats.)

The state BJP got yet another favourable message this past June. In the Imphal municipal corporation elections, BJP – again for the first time – grabbed ten seats (it won just one seat last time) while 12 went to Congress (14 earlier) and five to independent candidates.

The party is hoping the anti-incumbency faced by the three-term-old Congress government will bring it the required numbers to form the next government in the state.

“Anti-incumbency is a factor that may help BJP, but Congress is still strong in some pockets. While Congress is well entrenched in Manipur, BJP is still building its base in the state, mostly by borrowing leaders from other parties. So it is to be seen in coming times whether voters ignore that fact and go only for the party. Also, in Manipur, winning an election has a lot to do with money power,” says a prominent Meitei women leader, who preferred to be anonymous here.

“Money power” did pop up as a seeming poll determinant across the state. If political leaders openly asked voters in public meetings about “how much did you take to vote last time”, voters too are frank about quoting the sum. A voter in Bishnupur district even claimed to The Wire that he regretted selling his vote for Rs 500 in the last polls as his “neighbour did it for double that money a day later”.

“What we are offering to the people is good governance against a corrupt government,” said Joykishan.

Electoral issues

However, the BJP is also getting increasingly aware of the need to engage in some other “burning issues”. In the last few months, overtly or covertly, it has been addressing some issues. Take for instance, the street protests demanding the government introduce the Inner Line Permit (ILP), as wanted by people living in the valley districts, and a tacit support to the demand of the hill people for more autonomy.

“Though BJP was initially backing the hill district leaders’ demands for more autonomy, thinking it will help topple the Ibobi government, it couldn’t do so. Now, with the election nearing, it has begun playing a balancing act. It has realised that it is beneficial to back the ILP movement as the valley districts have 40 of the 60 seats. To form the government, a party needs only 31 seats,” said a state Congress source. He said, “BJP also knows that it can’t get all the valley seats, so it is trying to keep the hill people happy as well by supporting their agitation against the three bills passed by the state government.”

According to a local journalist who has been following the state’s politics for a long period, “Congress too is playing the same balancing game, by first bringing in three bills that supported the concerns of the majority Meitei community about losing land to ‘outsiders’. It then brought in yet another bill, again to address the same concerns of the Meiteis. And now, it is supporting the Kukis against the Naga-led tribes in the hill districts, knowing well that the others are with BJP. This will further divide the votes in the 20 constituencies of the hill districts.”

With the battle lines drawn rather sharply between two arch rivals, it is a tough call for the state’s voters. However, it seemed easy for politicians to choose sides, a least some young ones. Many budding politicians who have joined the BJP seemed to be driven by the belief that BJP under Modi “encourages young leaders”.

“I was working in Ahmedabad for some years and became a BJP member there. I saw how Modiji brought development to Gujarat. Since I was also side by side working for the community in Patsoi since 2002, I increasingly began to think, why can’t we bring such development to Manipur too? So I moved to Imphal in 2012,” Bijoy, in his early 40s, told The Wire.

A first time councilor for the party, Bijoy, also an RSS member, is one of the many young ticket seekers for the coming elections. “I know Modiji gives opportunity to young people to work for the people,” he said.

Conversations with more such leaders highlighted their belief that “there is also a Modi wave in the state”. Joykishan was quick to agree, “Yes, there is a Modi wave in Manipur. You will see it in election results.”

“Also,” he added, “that a senior Congress leader and former minister like Yumkham Erabot decided to join BJP indicates that something is highly wrong in that party and Ibobi Singh’s leadership.”

“In coming times,” he added, “more Congress leaders will want to join BJP.”

Though Joykishan said, “We will not accept every other Congress member approaching us to join BJP as this will send a wrong message to the people,” the pattern of BJP’s strategy in Manipur seemed similar to that of Assam in the run-up to the polls early this year.

A few parallels can already be drawn in this context. Such as, offering “good governance” against the “corrupt Congress government” and getting some Congressmen to join the party.

Also, like Tarun Gogoi’s arch rival Himanta Biswa Sarma was brought to the BJP, Yumkham Erabot’s induction in Manipur is being seen as a strategic ploy considering he is a bitter rival of Ibobi Singh.

What finally delivered Assam to the BJP was the “outsider” card it played towards the end of its campaign. In Manipur too, the “outsider” card could have been a potential poll weapon for the party but the Congress got there first. All it is left with now is the other card, alleged corruption by the ruling dispenation.

Not for nothing did Amit Shah say in the booth level wokers’ meeting in Imphal, “Rs 5,000 crore work completion certificate was not given to the people in Manipur by CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General). Congress must explain where these funds have gone.”