J&K Assembly Polls: 65.48% Turnout in Final Phase; Employment, Inflation and Absence of Democracy Key Issues

“J&K has been turned into a municipality after 2019. Even if a popular government comes to office, the reign of power will be in the hands of the lieutenant governor (LG),” a young voter told The Wire.

Bandipora, Kashmir: At a time when the election fever had gripped Jammu and Kashmir, Tanveer Hussain was angry, especially with the political parties based in Kashmir Valley who ran an intense and door-to-door campaign to attract the voters. 

“They had all the time for campaigns but none of them had time for even a single meeting on Article 370 and how we can get it back,” Hussain, who works in a popular fast-food chain, said outside a polling booth in north Kashmir’s Bandipora district. 

Despite a looming grudge, Hussain was among the first residents in Sonawari assembly constituency of Bandipora who cast his vote at Shadipora, a polling station during the third and final phase of the assembly election on Tuesday (October 1). 

A group of voters waiting for turn to cast their ballot at a polling station in Shadipora village of Bandipora. Photo: Jehangir Ali

Sporting a neatly trimmed beard with a thin moustache, Hussain said that he was fed up with the National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who he alleged had misgoverned Jammu and Kashmir since the eruption of armed insurgency in the early 1990s.

“I have voted for change. Only new faces and new ideas can bring a change in Kashmir,” he declared.

Across north Kashmir’s three districts of Baramulla, Bandipora and Kupwara where a resurgent NC is fighting a multi-fronted battle against the Peoples Conference led by Sajad Lone and Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party besides other small players, voters came out in large numbers to exercise their franchise in the final phase of election which recorded better turnout than the first two phases. 

A banner in Asham village of Bandipora with the images of Awami Ittehad Party leader Engineer Rashid and his party’s candidate for Sonawari constituency, Yasir Reshi. Photo: Jehangir Ali

According to J&K’s chief electoral officer, the last phase of the election saw 65.48% turnout, up from 57.31% in the second phase and 61.38% in the first phase. 

However, the overall voter turnout was 61.39, down from 65.23% recorded in the 2014 assembly election which had propelled the PDP-Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) coalition to power in J&K. 

Outside a polling station in Bandipora’s Sumbal village, a group of youngsters watched a steady trickle of voters walking in and out of a polling station on Tuesday morning, seemingly without any interest in the election. 

“Elections have no meaning now,” a youngster told The Wire, outside a polling station in Bandipora’s Sumbal town.

“J&K has been turned into a municipality after 2019. Even if a popular government comes to office, the reign of power will be in the hands of the lieutenant governor (LG),” he added.  

After J&K was bifurcated and demoted into a Union Territory in 2019, it has been run by the LG who is selected by the Ministry of Home Affairs. A recent change in law by the Union government has virtually handed veto power to the LG on the decisions taken by the popular government.

“If our chief minister can’t even select his own officers, how will he address the issues of people?” said the youngster, a university student, who didn’t wish to be identified. 

At some polling stations which The Wire visited on Tuesday, a common thread which connected the voters were the issues of the lack of employment opportunities in Kashmir post Article 370, rising inflation and the absence of democracy. 

A woman is seen extending greetings to an elderly lady by kissing her hand outside a polling station in Shadipora village of Bandipora. Photo: Jehangir Ali

Many voters also spoke of the reading down of Article 370, the loss of J&K’s statehood and how the erstwhile state has been stripped of its “dignity” by the BJP-led Union government. 

“Unemployment is at a record high and now this drug abuse is consuming our educated youngsters. But I am confident that once an elected government assumes office, the situation will change. We will get back our rights, god willing,” said Ghulam Rasool Khan, a retired government official who cast his ballot in Sonawari constituency.

For many families in Asham village of Bandipora, the election day seemed to be a time to socialise with each other. Many villagers, including women, could be seen hugging and greeting each other with great joy outside a polling station which was set up in a government-run school. Similar scenes were witnessed at other polling stations in this north Kashmir district.

“It’s okay if you lose,” housewife Aisha Bano, a NC supporter, quipped sarcastically to a female relative who had voted for a different candidate at the polling station in Asham of Sonawari constituency. “Winning or losing is part of the game. Don’t take it to heart.”

This north Kashmir assembly constituency recorded 65.56% voter turnout, which was a couple of notches higher than the overall turnout of 65.48% in the district in the final phase of the three-phase election. 

A paramilitary trooper helping an old lady to climb the stairs to a polling station in Asham village of Bandipora. Photo: Jehangir Ali

Zareena Bano, 50, a housewife who also cast her vote at a polling booth in Asham village, said that her poor village was plagued by the absence of good roads and drinking water shortage. She said that her two illiterate sons were jobless, leaving her ailing husband to fend for their household expenses.

“In recent years, our household bills have shot through the roof. Leading a basic life is becoming impossible. But I am hopeful that our village will be developed and my sons will get work once the government is formed,” she said.

Polling was also held on Tuesday in four districts of Jammu division which are the stronghold of the BJP. However, political analysts believe that the saffron party could lose some ground in these districts which comprise the Hindu heartland of Jammu and Kashmir.

The results of the election are scheduled to be declared on October 8.

Why Jammu Deserves Attention in J&K Assembly Elections

As national focus remains fixated on Kashmir, Jammu’s pivotal influence in the upcoming elections is being overlooked, despite its potential to shape the future of Jammu and Kashmir’s governance.

As the political spotlight once again shifts toward Jammu and Kashmir during the long-overdue assembly elections, the media’s gaze remains fixed on Kashmir. With every report and panel discussion, the conversation steers toward the valley’s political fault lines, the contest between regional heavyweights, and the issues of security, peace, statehood and abrogation of Article 370. But lost in this familiar narrative is a region that has suffered in silence, whose political voice has been ignored for far too long — Jammu.

The real electoral battle in the upcoming Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections isn’t in Kashmir, but in Jammu, where anti-incumbency sentiments are strong. With 11 assembly seats in Jammu district alone and 43 seats in the Jammu division, the election results here could very well decide who the next chief minister will be.

This region has endured significant challenges over the past years, from installation of toll plazas to policy paralysis to economic losses caused by initiatives like the new excise policy and the suspension of the Darbar move. Despite this, Jammu continues to remain ignored. Sadly, the leaders from Jammu often rush to Kashmir to give interviews rather than addressing the region’s critical issues in national discourse.

Even during the G20 summit, global attention remained fixed on Kashmir while Jammu was sidelined. The media’s persistent focus on Kashmir is puzzling, especially when it is Jammu that is poised to be the deciding factor in the elections.

Despite security threats and Pakistan’s continuous attempts to destabilise Jammu region by pushing militants across the Line of Control (LoC), the people of Jammu have shown remarkable enthusiasm towards the assembly elections. Even militant attacks and targeted killings haven’t weakened their resolve.

Voters from Jammu who feel disconnected from policy making see this election as an opportunity to voice their opinions, hoping for a government that will address their grievances. However, the political climate in the Jammu region is not particularly favourable for the BJP. There is a strong dissatisfaction with the ruling party, which has failed to adequately address security and other governance concerns over the past five years. What is working in the saffron party’s advantage is a weak and disorganised Opposition, especially the Congress party’s mismanagement. 

Also read: J&K’s Path Forward: Move Beyond the Political Rhetoric, Grant Statehood, Scrap PSA and AFSPA

Notably, despite the Modi wave, the Congress party had managed to win 12 seats in the 2014 assembly polls in J&K. Though they once held a strong base among the Dogra Hindu voters in Jammu, that support has gradually diminished. After seven years, the tide might turn in favour of the grand old party but they seem disorganised and hesitant to fully capitalise on the anti-incumbency sentiment. On the other hand, the BJP is engaged in a crucial electoral battle to reclaim its political relevance in the Union Territory. The party is heavily banking on the newly introduced ST reservation for the Pahari community over the issues of development and has thrown its full weight behind the elections, determined to secure a strong foothold.

A region battling for relevance 

Despite being key to the political future of J&K, Jammu is still struggling to find relevance. Jammu’s issues are not new, but their continued absence from the national stage speaks volumes. This is a region that has suffered economically and politically over the last seven years. While the Kashmir valley grapples with its own set of challenges, Jammu’s struggles have often been dismissed or downplayed.

Consider the fact that the region has been fighting for equitable development at par with Kashmir for decades. Despite being the economic backbone of the erstwhile state of J&K, generating significant revenue from industries like tourism, agriculture and trade, it remains underfunded and underrepresented. The BJP’s slogan “Naya Kashmir” only mentioned Kashmir and left out Jammu, when it should have been “Naya Jammu and Kashmir” to acknowledge both the regions.

In the seven years since Jammu and Kashmir has been without an elected assembly, the people of Jammu have also borne the brunt of this political vacuum. From stalled developmental projects to the erosion of job opportunities, from struggling to find attention in government policies to watching their industries and transport businesses struggle to survive, the region has been fighting an uphill battle for relevance. Yet, the national media seldom covers these stories. Kashmir, with its volatile political history, has understandably commanded attention, but this has come at the cost of ignoring Jammu’s concerns. 

Transport Nagar in Jammu reveals the crisis the once-thriving transport industry, which used to be the backbone of J&K’s economy is facing. Today, many truckers and commercial vehicle owners are burdened with debt with no bail out or revival plan by the government. Photo: Kanwal Singh

There has been very less focus on the economic struggles of Jammu’s transport sector that has faced significant setbacks in the recent years, a major source of anti-incumbency sentiment.Vijay Singh Chib, all J&K transport welfare association president says:

“The transport business in J&K has been in crisis for the past seven years, operating under difficult conditions following the lockdowns post-abrogation and the COVID pandemic. Even during these periods, when vehicles were parked, the government continued to impose taxes. No relief was offered in the form of fee reductions or rebates in renewal of permits. The introduction of a large number of private e-buses of Tata by the government further harmed local transport businesses.”

Vijay Singh also highlighted that illegal fines and corruption have exacerbated the exploitation of transporters. “Repeated requests for a new transport policy, including a demand for industrial status for the sector, which supports over five lakh commercial vehicles, have been ignored by the government.”

The business community’s struggles post Darbar move suspension

Maharaja Ranbir Singh had initially introduced the Darbar move — a process involving biannual rotation of capital — where Jammu was the winter capital and Kashmir was the summer capital. This was done to ensure that both Jammu and Kashmir could prosper economically.

The BJP could have left a better impression on the public had they handled the suspension of the Darbar move differently. The complete halt of this tradition has caused significant financial losses, especially for the youth and the business community such as shopkeepers in traditional markets like Raghunath Bazaar. 

On September 18 last year, Jammu’s business community called for a complete shutdown of the city, protesting various issues, including the possible entry of Reliance with 100 new retail stores in Jammu.

The new excise policy severely impacted the local businesses where majority of the local wine traders went bankrupt. Additionally, the region’s youth have suffered due to the lack of private sector opportunities.

With most jobs tied to government positions, a series of recruitment scams have further dampened the job market while many youths have crossed the age limit for government exams due to lockdowns and stagnant employment opportunities. Jammu is seeking balanced development in the private sector to create employment opportunities.

Jammu’s broader issues and environmental concerns

Jammu’s struggles extend beyond business and employment. Policies that overlook local issues such as high electricity tariffs, the introduction of property tax, domicile laws for land, and the concerns of micro-minority communities like Sikhs, including the exclusion of Punjabi from the official language bill — have deepened the region’s disconnect.

Much like the concerns raised by people in Kashmir regarding the safeguards for land and employment after the abrogation of Article 370, residents of Jammu have expressed similar apprehensions. Moreover, concerns about preserving Dogra identity continue to linger. Although Dogri has been designated as one of the official languages of Jammu and Kashmir, no additional measures have been taken to promote the language or its script, Takri.

There are also no Dogri signboards to be found on the streets of Jammu. A scholar from Jammu University pointed out that most Dogri scholars are unemployed due to the lack of new positions in the higher education department. The situation is similar for scholars of other regional languages such as Punjabi.

Also read: J&K Polls: What the Historic Voter Turnout in Kashmir Means for the Region

The concerns of the Dogra community regarding preserving their rich heritage and culture have also been ignored. The government’s plan to transform the historic Mubarak Mandi complex — originally known as ‘Darbar Garh’ built by Raja Dhruv Dev and later expanded by Dogra Maharajas — into a heritage hotel sparked intense backlash from Jammu city residents. Sunny Dua, a renowned journalist, photographer and explorer’s recent exhibition showcasing the dying Dogra heritage and architecture also revealed that for decades the successive political parties within J&K and at the Centre have failed to preserve it. 

Environmental challenges are also becoming more pressing. Climate activist Anmol Ohri warns, “Development projects threatening natural resources, such as the destruction of Raika forest, could result in Jammu losing its ecological ‘lungs,’ potentially mirroring the environmental degradation seen in Delhi.”

The real battleground

Jammu unlike Kashmir, has a mixed demography, with Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, and other communities living in a delicate balance. The issues of governance, infrastructure, education and job creation are going to be critical in determining the electoral outcomes here. 

Many observers believe that Jammu’s voice will be the deciding factor in shaping the next government. With a higher voter turnout traditionally seen in Jammu as compared to the valley, it is likely that the region’s political leanings will weigh heavily in determining the assembly’s composition.

Jammu and Kashmir is set to witness a notably inclusive election, with around 35,000 displaced Kashmiri Pandits eligible to vote at special polling stations in Jammu, Udhampur, and Delhi. This marks a key step in their reintegration into the democratic process. However, despite this progress, there is still no clear roadmap for their return to the valley. Kashmiri Pandits residing in Jagti have also expressed concerns, accusing the government of neglecting their issues and needs

As the first phase of J&K assembly elections has concluded on September 18 with record voter turnout in some constituencies, one thing is certain — the real contest is not just in Kashmir, but in Jammu. It’s time the media and the country shift their focus and acknowledge the region’s concerns, issues and central role in shaping the future of Jammu and Kashmir. 

Kanwal Singh is a policy analyst from J&K.

‘The Prime Minister Will Be the Most Uncomfortable Person in the New Lok Sabha’

Suhas Palshikar does not believe there will be any substantive change between the Modi government’s behaviour during the last 10 years and the next five.

Political scientist and commentator Suhas Palshikar has said, “The prime minister will be the most uncomfortable person in the new Lok Sabha” because Narendra Modi insists that he has won a mandate for a third term when, in fact, he has lost his majority and his government cannot survive without support from allies. Palshikar says the prime minister knows this but his personality will prevent him adapting to the new political situation he finds himself in. This, Palshikar says, will lead to tension and awkwardness which will show in Modi’s behaviour, manner and speech but also in the way his government conducts itself and, possibly, is perceived.

In an interview to The Wire recorded on the day the new Speaker was elected, Palshikar, chief editor of Studies in Indian Politics and co-director of the Lokniti Programme on Comparative Democracy, spoke of the tensions, acrimony and polarisation that is likely to characterise the 18th Lok Sabha. He said: “There will be more direct confrontation between the main ruling party and the opposition because the BJP would be licking its wounds, seeking opportunities to de-legitimize the Opposition and the Opposition would be eager to flex its muscles because of its belief that the people have rejected the BJP.”

In these circumstances, Palshikar does not believe there will be any substantive change between the Modi government’s behaviour during the last 10 years and the next five. He says: “The Modi regime will soon return to its core features – weaponisation of state power to suppress dissent, coupled with intolerance of routine opposition, de-legitimisation of all institutions through their political capture and a well-defined majoritarian politics that encourages the societal sphere to stigmatise the minorities.”

Palshikar identified four fault-lines that could become potential flashpoints for the government. They are the handling of unemployment and the frustrations of youth, Centre-state relations, the issue of a caste census and reservations, and vigilante adventurism against Muslims whilst the state simply behaves like a passive onlooker.

The Need for Eternal Vigilance

At this critical time, two institutions charged with protecting the Constitution, namely the judiciary and the bureaucracy, have a crucial role to play for restoring the nuts and bolts of our democracy.

A decade ago, we were caught napping and before we knew it, the “terrible twins” had snatched away our freedom. Then out of nowhere and against all odds — predatory agencies that hobbled the opponents, a thoroughly compromised Election Commission of India (ECI), the unimaginable resources of the regime, a shamelessly partisan media and a bickering Opposition — the people of India delivered a fractured ‘no outright winners’ verdict and a body blow to the “400 paar” party.

Rahul Gandhi has rightly singled out the poor of this country as the heroes of this nation’s most crucial electoral battle between two contending ideas of how India is to be governed — as a kleptocratic oligarchy or as ordained by our Constitution. For rejecting and pushing back autocracy, crony capitalism and communalism and upholding the Constitution, they are rightly hailed for the tentative restoration of democracy. The word “tentative” has been used advisedly, knowing that so long as the authoritarian is still in the saddle, albeit downsized, we need to watch out.

Last week, Narendra Modi interloped on the G 7 summit to briefly escape the torment of unremitting public obloquy back home where, among other embarrassments, a chappal was hurled at the self-confessed divine being. He was unintentionally on the mark when he proclaimed to the G 7 leaders that the recent Lok Sabha election was the victory of the entire democratic world. He was attempting to give a positive spin to what was a pyrrhic victory for his party — dependent on the support of mercurial coalition partners — which has frustrated his ambitions of a dictatorship in perpetuity, but he fooled nobody. Unsurprisingly for a closet Nazi, the high point of Modi’s undistinguished sojourn was the selfie with the hard-right Italian Prime Minister Giorgi Meloni, who is an admirer of Mussolini.

Also read: Murmu’s Stride Against Convention Continues by Appointing BJP’s Mahtab as Protem Speaker

The most discussed happening of this hectic election season has been the seismic erosion and unravelling of the carefully choreographed Modi brand that has been riding the wave of success and adulation for two decades. That programmed image building, mainly based on falsehood and embellishment, involving a host of celebrity consultants and crores of dollars has come badly unstuck.

Like eventually happens to every jumlebaaz, Modi has contributed to his own undoing with his unbecoming conduct and stunningly grotesque statements during this election, of which some stick out like a sore thumb. Apart from his ugly rants against Muslims that referenced ghuspetias (infiltrators), buffaloes, mangalsutra, mujra et al, Modi claimed that his intercession with Netanyahu had stopped the fighting in Gaza during Ramadan, and that Mahatma Gandhi was unknown to the world till Attenborough’s Gandhi hit the screens. But what took the cake was his insane delusional claim of transfiguration into divinity. People have finally realised that for too long they have been hoodwinked by an ill-educated, dishonest and narcissistic person.

Modi’s mask has been ripped off and so has his aura of dominant invincibility. He has shrunk to ordinary flesh and blood and is now a very vulnerable human being with his back to the wall. But beware! Winston Churchill had warned against driving anyone to desperation because even a cornered rat is dangerous. And this man is prime minister of India, which makes the threat he poses very potent.

The perceptive American comedian, Bill Maher has observed that ‘secrecy is the freedom that tyrants dream of’.  Modi 1.0 and Modi 2.0 thrived in a culture of cloak-and-dagger secrecy and lack of transparency. Secrecy has been the pivotal tack of the authoritarian and be sure it will be his modus operandi this time around. 

There is a clear method in Modi’s retention of the same set of senior ministers, including those who shied away from fighting the recent election. The ostensible reason trotted out for the status quo is the need to ensure continuity of policy but that’s a red herring. Modi needs his old partners in crime to ensure that the profusion of sins and wrongdoing committed by them and their ministries in policy and execution in the last few years remain under wraps. There are bagfuls of skeletons in the cupboard. And so, expect this new dispensation to use every possible means to remain opaque in its functioning, even as it goes about covering its tracks and past misdeeds.

Openness in government functioning is the sine qua non of a democracy. Even as this Modi.2.25 government attempts to shroud its working in secrecy, the job of the Opposition and the people would be to prise open the innards of the government for all to see. And we must not forget or forgive. In the haunting words of Milan Kundera, “the struggle of people against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting.” We cannot allow the sheer wickedness of the past ten years to be wished away or buried. 

Without doubt, the newly energised Opposition that has played a stellar part in reclaiming our better selves, will make life hell for Modi and his cronies and insist on investigation into scams like the electoral bonds, Adanigate, Rafale, Pegasus and other high-profile cases. We can also trust the Opposition to do its utmost to abrogate or amend Modi’s best-loved laws like the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002 (PMLA) and such like, that he weaponised to reinforce and fortify his tyranny.

There are numerous less discussed but lethal distortions and perversions in the power structure instigated by Modi and gang that need urgent investigation and correction. In an inexhaustible list, indicated below are some important concerns that must be addressed without loss of time:

  • Statistics of performance are key to decision-making, but that aspect of governance and management has been mangled almost beyond repair. Key statistical indices  have been falsified or erased or kept hidden from public scrutiny. We are so mired in statistical fudging that our figures are at complete odds with the data and assessments of international rating agencies. Our statistical record-keeping must be set right in mission mode.
  • The system of awarding high value contracts has been non-transparent and has often been manipulated to ensure that contracts only go to the favoured few. The standing joke in the corridors of the mantralayas is that under the Modi system of tendering, the winner is decided even before the race begins.
  • The most far-reaching damage wrought by Modi and his  cabal has been to the education system which has been adversely impacted in any number of ways. The deranged innovations range from introducing half-baked new systems of admission and testing to needless standardisation and stultifying abridgement of syllabi. There has been a dangerous lowering of standards in domain-centric knowledge. The educational institutions have been packed with indoctrinated but otherwise unqualified individuals with bad intent, a disastrous fallout of which has been a  rash of  examination leaks. And to top it all, these malicious half-literates are rewriting and doctoring our history.
  •  Behind the catchy slogan “na khaunga na khane dunga”, the Modi regime has presided over corruption of a mind-boggling scale, not only individual but wholesale subornation of systems and institutions. Statutory and anti-corruption bodies such as the Lokpal, the Central Information Commission (CIC), the ECI, the Central Vigilance Commission (CVC) have been reduced to mere ciphers, with flunkeys who occupy the top posts, slavishly doing the government’s bidding.

How does one sort out this godawful mess, with almost every institution sullied by the earlier regime’s dangerous machinations? Yes, the Opposition and the political class in general are critical in this fight to reclaim our republic. They certainly have the numbers in parliament, the quality and the resolve to take on Modi and Shah – the menacing duo who have run amok these last few years and are still around. But that won’t be enough.

At this critical time, two institutions charged with protecting the Constitution, namely the judiciary and the bureaucracy, have a crucial role to play for restoring the nuts and bolts of our democracy. But having been collaborators of the tyrant for the last few years, can they now be trusted to do the right thing by the country? Time will tell, and one can only hope that there are enough of them with a conscience to help right the ship of State.

And the media? The great American black activist, Malcolm X, was spot on when he said that the media was the most powerful entity on earth as it has the power to make the innocent guilty and the guilty innocent. That’s what our criminal mainstream media has been doing with deadly effect for ten interminable years, instigating and justifying hate and violence. Can such a compromised, inhuman media that have been propagandists for a ruthless, amoral regime change tack and be harnessed for the public good? That seems improbable. India today desperately needs investigative journalists of the Woodward-Bernstein kind who would lay bare the evil perpetrated by the Modi regime in the last ten years. We need Tarun Tejpals, Ashish Khaitans, Anirudh Bahls to excavate the innards of wickedness perpetrated by Modi and gang.  

Also read: Extrajudicial Demolitions, Crackdown on Dissenters Show It Is Modi 2.1, Not Modi 3.0

With the institutions ordained to protect our freedoms all too often compromised, there is a halting consensus among social scientists that the building of an equal and just society is not possible without the active participation of the main stakeholder i.e. civil society. The silent majority will have to step forward if our democracy is to rediscover its egalitarian essence. After what this country has been through in the last few years, one cannot overstress the importance of the citizens’ active and persistent participation in the working of society, even if it involves street protests and acts of civil disobedience.

Such a prescription has few takers among the middle class and entrenched elite who heartily endorse Modi’s repeated stress on the sanctity of the rule of law that he has artfully yoked to national interest and security. One wonders whether the prime minister would brand the students protesting the NEET results as andolanjeevies, like he has labelled other agitators against the injustices perpetrated by his earlier regime.

The demonisation of protest movements and protesters by the governing elite reminds one of an instance of gallows humour at the height of the anti-Vietnam war social upheavals in the 1960s, when a Harvard Law School student addressed a largely conservative audience thus: “The streets of our country are in turmoil. The universities are filled with students rebelling and rioting. Communists are seeking to destroy our country. The Republic is in danger, danger from within and without. We need law and order! Without law and order our nation cannot survive!”

His words were greeted with thunderous applause and when it died down, he unleashed his punchline: “These words were spoken in 1932 by Adolf Hitler.”

Having escaped the tyrant’s noose by the skin of our teeth, we cannot be complacent. We need to constantly remind ourselves that we are legatees of the land sanctified by Mahatma Gandhi and B.R. Ambedkar and not the ugly sectarian world cooked up by Savarkar and his Hindutva imposters.

Mathew John is a former civil servant. 

CHARTING: For First Time, OBC Representation in Lok Sabha Matches Upper Castes’ at 26%

While both NDA and INDIA contribute to OBC representation, the NDA retains a bias towards upper-caste representation which INDIA – and the Congress in particular – have shed in this election.

At 26%, ‘upper’ caste representation in the Lok Sabha in 2024 is the lowest it has ever been since independence. This is also the first time that OBC representation matches upper caste representation.

While both NDA and INDIA contribute to OBC representation, the NDA retains a bias towards upper-caste representation which INDIA – and the Congress in particular – have shed in this election.

Gilles Verniers is a Karl Loewenstein Fellow at Amherst College.

Love in the Age of Electioneering

It is obvious that India’s ruling party was not just embarrassed but rather angry at the Opposition for introducing a word like Mohabbat (love) in a serious political context and the party media cells taking cue, advertised it as an obscenity or worse, a conspiracy to besmirch the good name of the Modi government.

Election in India have increasingly become events when media reports about concrete representations of the state appear increasingly  tragic, mean and shabby. And high sounding words like freedom, justice and civilised behaviour become unmentionables. In such an atmosphere when Rahul Gandhi first spoke of opening a “Mohabbat ki Dukan (a shop of love)” in the “Nafrat ka Bazaar (the bazaar of hatred)” all around us, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leaders were swift to slam him. 

Mrinal Pande

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

Who needs Mohabbat ki Dukaan? No one! said the defence minister while addressing a meet to celebrate nine grand years of Gauravshali Bharat under Narendra Modi. Another senior diplomat-turned-an-important-minister when asked about his opinion on “the shop” by a smirking anchor in a TV interview, saw it as a hare brained idea, perhaps indegenous ‘Jugaad’ version of what the West calls a Love Fest, a major party spokesperson with dancing eyebrows was equally dismissive. What kind of stuff such a shop would be selling ? He said and let the eyebrows say the rest. The heavy weight BJP party president was angry. He predicted the Mohabbat ki Dukan was a misnomer, it was going to be a mega mall of hatred. 

Modi was equally dismissive of the idea of dispensing love. He suspected, he said without naming Rahul the perp, the Opposition’s Dukan was actually an outlet for selling fake videos damning his government blatantly by using AI and new media technologies. But he believed that he and his party had nothing much to do. He was sure the people themselves would soon force such a shop to bring down its shutters.

It is obvious that India’s ruling party was not just embarrassed but rather angry at the Opposition for introducing a word like Mohabbat (love) in a serious political context and the party media cells taking cue, advertised it as an obscenity or worse, a conspiracy to besmirch the good name of a government that has ruled India successfully for two decades and looked forward to winning the third time. 

Why should a party whose leaders command a near perfect system to condemn and punish those that dared oppose their ideology in any field — with aggressive shaming and public humiliation,  in some cases with harsh legal action — be so rattled by the simple phrase one wonders? Could it be that like many tradional Indians they cling to a notion of democracy that makes occasional abuse acceptable to the public  as a necessary disciplining actions. Make them believe whatever is being done unto the dissenters is for their own good, and the nation’s.

There is no denying that within the parent body the Sangh Parivar — of which the BJP is a political arm — there is lots of affection, care and freedom for those within its fold.  But freedom, care and love are infinitely divisible in our country because a larger part of it falls outside this Parivar. This is confirmed by the electoral response of the Indian voters. It is indicating clearly that for them the Indian state has become a largely dysfunctional entity. In 2024, they refused a decade old odd version of care and unkindness being offered to various groups in varying degrees through government doles for “weaker sections” and the “mothers and sisters”. From Ayodhya to Amethi to Varanasi what the voters needed were not tokenisms like buildings and roads and dams built with public money after bulldozing homes and smaller temples being “gifted” to the nation by leaders. They wished to see and be surrounded by actual acts of attention, love and caring, not glamorous spectacles, occasional free ration schemes and lure of money coming in through tourism and pilgims.

True, the ruling party’s rhetoric was easily whipped to a crescendo by the godi (lapdog) media because it did not demand a change in the patriarchal domination of males within homes, offices and temples. Nor did it actually register the pain of the  poor and the marginalised whose homes were bulldosed and forests cut for trade and tourism promotion. It may have seemed the silent masses accepted the logic of the powerful rulers and the corporate cronies, but they knew in their hearts it was not right and voted accordingly. This made the venerable duo of Pradeep Gupta and Prashant Kishor cut a sorry figure when the actual results came. As an experienced mother turned grand mother one couldn’t help but notice how abused children and weaker sections resent a god cop-bad cop treatment from powerful and arrogant. But they learn early on to withhold the truth about their real feelings and intentions in public or when the cameras and the chirpy anchors and pollsters came calling.

Actually most Indians, brought up under grim strict traditional parenting, can seldom, if ever discuss love within homes or outside with teachers. The decade-old NDA rule revalidated the false concept that true love is rooted in blood/caste relationships. So one must naturally bond with one’s natal Parivar and caste. One’s love for the State likewise was not an organic growth of each Indian exercising basic constitutional rights (Adhikar), but must be bound by a deeper sense of duty (Kartavya) tempered with veneration for the State.

Also read: What is the MP’s Dharma?

What the term Mohabbat ki Dukan, (though a little filmy like ‘Suit-boot ki Sarkar’) has done, is that it has demystified the larger meaning of love, the art and practice of loving, to millions of ordinary voters in an easy to understand phrase straight out of Hindi films. One major reason for the popularity of Hindi films has been their actors’ infinite capacity to test love in various arenas, to try and locate a humane core to the family, the State and the judiciary. The films that have been the biggest hits have upheld when the young are unable to say that real love is possible only with a sense of justice within families, and within the State. Bereft of it no family or democracy or indeed language can thrive. 

On the face of it our leaders have said for a decade that we live in a culture that respects and upholds the freedom of speech, the basic civil rights for children and human rights of all including women and non-caste groups. Yet India’s family units, large or small, are encouraged to remain bastions that are led from the front by males, no matter how weak or petty or tyrannical. The State supports this overarching paternal architecture because within the party (100%) top political leaders decide what is best for the nation and women wings of the party. The top judiciary is as late Justice Leila Seth had pointed out a decade ago, is also female deficient. And this has resulted in several judicial verdicts that upheld the societal status quo in cases relating to articles 14 (guarantee of equality before law), and article 15 (prohibiting discrimination on grounds of religion, caste, gender and place of birth). Some were challenged and turned down, many were not. 

Also read: From Underdog to Unstoppable: Time for Rahul Gandhi to Become the Opposition Leader of All Indians

Within the media, our family oriented television shows put out inappropriate images and messages confirming sexism, casteism and the dominance of the males everywhere as natural and right. Our news panels (overcrowded with men) have little to no critical reflection on the human core of issues under scrutiny. Nor do they summon the courage to say  the way of obtaining political power through lies and money and/or expected feminine guiles (familial ties to major politicians or traditional attire) is plain wrong. There is a similar suspension of disbelief in the world of advertising that crafts the leader’s image and sells it through indoor/outdoor advertising to voters. This has made it easier for people in power to lie and bluster through reasoned arguments if and when they surface.

The wounded child inside within the silenced voters is what Rahul Gandhi has successfully tapped into with the concept of opening a Mohabbat ki Dukan in a Nafrat ka Bazar. He is himself someone who when he first spoke the truth, was silenced by paternal sadism of the grey haired ruling cabals unwilling to permit politics to become an arena where love can coexist with power and in time humanise it.

All awakening to love leads ultimately to a realisation of the  human contours and colours of a real democracy committed to protect all constitutionally given creative freedoms. This is why great minds from Valmiki to Ved Vyas and Chaitanya Mahaprabhu have repeatedly said, the human truth (Manush Satya) stands above all. 

Mrinal Pande is a writer and veteran journalist.

Farmers’ Anger Hurt the BJP in Several Northern States: CSDS-Lokniti Survey

Farmers’ bodies – protesting at the Punjab-Haryana border since February this year – say will continue their protest until a legal guarantee to MSPs is ensured.

Chandigarh: The post-poll survey by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS)’s Lokniti program revealed that farmers’ anger had hurt the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in several northern states.

This along with other factors is believed to have stopped the BJP from getting a majority of its own in the lower house of parliament.

For instance, CSDS-Lokniti’s findings for Haryana – which has remained an epicentre of the farmers’ protest against the Modi government along with Punjab – revealed that over 61% of farmers voted for the Congress-led INDIA bloc while 35% voted for the BJP.

This resulted in a clear consolidation of the farming community – dominated by Jats – behind the Congress, making it win as many as five out of the ten Lok Sabha seats from the state in the recently concluded general elections.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

This was far better than the party’s performance in the 2019 general elections, when it drew a blank, while it won just a single seat in the 2014 elections.

Three out of five seats that the Congress won this time, including Hisar, Rohtak and Sonipat, are all dominated by Jat voters.

Besides, it also won two reserved constituencies due to the consolidation of Dalits in favour of the Congress.

On possible reasons for pushback from farmers, Sanjay Kumar, a political analyst as well as co-director at CSDS-Lokniti, told The Wire that one could safely presume that the BJP government’s strong opposition to the farmers’ movement in Punjab and Haryana in run-up to the general election made farmers vote against the BJP.

February protest

The issue of a legal guarantee to minimum support prices (MSPs) was among the prime reason behind the ‘Delhi chalo’ call by farmers from Punjab and Haryana in February – an extension of the famous 2020 farmers’ protests that knelt the Modi government down and got it to withdraw the three central farm Bills.

But the Modi government, along with help of the BJP-ruled Haryana government, used all means, including blocking national highways and dropping tear gas shells, to stop farmers from reaching Delhi this year.

Later, they were contained at the Punjab-Haryana border at Shambhu and Khanauri, where they have squatted for over five months now.

Also read: How Jats Halted the BJP’s Poll Wagon in the Hindi Heartland

In Punjab, the BJP faced maximum resistance from farmers during the Lok Sabha polls. All their 13 candidates had a tough time campaigning in villages during elections.

If the CSDS-Lokniti survey is to be believed (as shared by Sanjay Kumar), not more than 15% of farmers voted for the BJP in Punjab during the Lok Sabha polls.

On the contrary, survey findings suggested that over 50% of farmer voters went to the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had provided tactical support to farmers during the recent farmers’ movement.

Twenty-five percent of of farmer community votes went to the Congress.

This trend is reflected in the overall poll results, where the Congress (seven) and the AAP (three) won ten out of 13 seats in Punjab, whereas the BJP drew a blank.

While the Congress and the AAP had almost the same vote share, at around 26%, support from Hindus and Dalits helped the Congress win all major urban seats in the state, thereby reducing the AAP’s tally, suggested the survey.

On the other hand, the BJP’s former alliance partner, the Shiromani Akali Dal, could win just a single seat, which suggested that the second-oldest political party in India is still struggling to win back its old support among farmers and Sikhs.

Meanwhile, the farmers’ anger hurt the BJP in Rajasthan as well, suggested the CSDS-Lokniti survey.

As per data from the survey, 46% of farmers voted for the Congress in the state, while 45% voted for the BJP.

This presumably caused the BJP to under-perform in the state, which it won hands down in previous elections.

Winning 14 out of 25 seats, the BJP was down by ten seats this time, while the Congress was up by eight seats.

‘Open for dialogue but MSP guarantee law must’

Speaking to The Wire, Sarwan Singh Pandher, one of the prominent farmer leaders at the ongoing protest along the Punjab-Haryana border, said they were open for dialogue with the newly formed BJP-led NDA Union government.

“But the protest will not end until the [Union government] assures them a law to provide a legal guarantee to MSP,” he added.

On the survey pointing out that the BJP lost ground among farmers during the recent Lok Sabha election, he said this was bound to happen.

“How will people vote for the government that takes away their democratic right to protest in the national capital, drops tear gas shells on peaceful protesters and even kills them too?” said Pandher.

He said their appeal to the people during the Lok Sabha polls was to focus on issues, and that they responded accordingly.

Pandher added that their opposition to the BJP would continue as long as it does not respond positively to their demands.

What is an MP’s Dharma?

Sitamarhi MP Devesh Chandra Thakur and Andaman and Nicobar Islands MP Bishnu Pada Ray have issued threats to those they think did not vote for them in the recently concluded general elections.  

Devesh Chandra Thakur is the new newsmaker. A newly elected member of parliament, he has publicly declared that since Muslims and Yadavs did not vote for him, they should not expect him to do their work. A friend told me that he was also upset with Kushwahas who, in his understanding, had not voted for him. So he wants Muslims, Yadavs, and Kushwahas to know that he would not do their work.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

Thakur got the support of Giriraj Singh of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), one of the most foul-mouthed MPs that the Lok Sabha has, who is very open about his Islamophobia. But he drew flak from other quarters and had to clarify that he would do all public work, but those who have not voted for him should not expect him to do their personal work.

By issuing this warning to Muslims, Thakur immediately shot to national fame.

Despite condemnation, Thakur has stood his ground. It cannot be a one-way affair; give me your vote, get your work done, or suffer, is his refrain.

Thakur’s outburst tells us that our MPs do not know their primary task. They are confused about it and think that they are elected to develop their constituencies or, with the power that they get as MPs, to get people’s work done. Help them secure admission in schools or hospitals, etc. But this is not their job.

Thakur is not alone. Another BJP MP from Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Bishnu Pada Ray too issued a threat to those he thinks did not vote for him.

“We will get people’s work done. But those who did not vote for us, must think …Nicobar Islands did not give me any votes. Car Nicobar, think about what is going to happen to you now,” he said.

Also read: The Maulana Who Defeated the BJP in Uttar Pradesh’s Rampur

Both Thakur and Ray think that they are elected lords. They forget that the Constitution asks them to perform their duties without discrimination. But they also forget that they are not elected to get peoples’ work done.

MPs have specific roles to play. Getting people’s work done is not one of them. It is also necessary that we remind ourselves of the responsibilities of an MP so as not to harbor any false hope from them. They are:

1. Legislative Responsibility: Passing laws of India in the Lok Sabha.
2. Oversight Responsibility: Ensuring that the executive (i.e. government) performs its duties efficiently.
3. Representative Responsibility: Representing the people’s views and aspirations of their constituencies in the Parliament of India (Lok Sabha).
4. Power of the Purse Responsibility: Approving and overseeing government-proposed revenues and expenditures.

Thakur should know that the voters of his constituency know what he is going to do as an MP. That is why they voted as they did. That is why the Muslim voters are understood to have not voted for him. Because they are aware or were made aware by Thakur’s leader about the nature of lawmaking they’ll do as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Narendra Modi.

Thakur will be representing the Sitamarhi constituency in the 18th Lok Sabha elected recently. He won as a Janata Dal (United) candidate which is a junior ally of the BJP. Thus he is part of the ruling alliance. The campaign of this alliance was led by Modi who had made it very clear this time that his alliance was seeking votes only from Hindus. Not only that. He wanted votes from Hindus and against Muslims who were “infiltrators,” who bred more children to outnumber Hindus. He kept repeating in his meetings that the NDA or Modi should be elected to save Hindus from the designs of the Congress party-led alliance which was conspiring to take away their resources and give them to Muslims.Modi kept referring to Muslims in a very derogatory manner. It became very clear that he, as the leader of the alliance Thakur was part of, did not want Muslims to vote for it. Apart from that, it was also clear that a vote for the NDA would see continuance of the same government which had been enacting anti-Muslim laws in the last 10 years. The executive was also antagonistic towards Muslims.

Now, you don’t expect Muslims to elect a formation which has made its intention very clear that it wants to turn India into a Hindu-first country. That will be achieved by making laws and through executive actions.

Thakur may be a good man. Wikipedia tells us that he is a well-educated man. The Congress party has been his political training ground. But one can also see from his political trajectory that he is one of those political entrepreneurs who can be in any political party holding contrarian views about what kind of laws should run the country.

When his party JD(U) tied up with the BJP, it made it clear before the electorate that they would be in the parliament raising hands with the BJP MPs to pass laws which can be anti-Muslim or anti-minority. Or which marginalise Muslims. They would be part of an executive which will take actions that isolate and corner or victimise Muslims.Does Thakur think that knowing the record of his alliance, Muslims would vote for it?

Thakur says that he is a good man. When you are an MP, we do not see how many pedestrians you help cross the road. We want to know what kind of laws you made and which executive you supported. MPs are not sent to parliament to get civic work done in their constituencies. This is the confusion which all of us have when we blame MPs for not developing their constituencies. The MPLADS has created this confusion. This is an additional advantage MPs have but this is NOT their job.

Thakur’s outburst against Muslims and Yadvas reminds one of an incident involving Abdul Gafoor. He was a Congress leader and had served as the chief minister of Bihar — remembered as an honest, incorruptible politician. Forced to leave by Jayaprakash Narayan as part of his 74′ movement against corruption. A movement which trained Nitish Kumar into politics.

My father told me about one of the election meetings of Abdul Gafoor. He was seeking votes in a Lok Sabha election. Some of the people in the meeting complained about the lack of hand pumps and other civic amenities in his area. He bluntly told them that this was not his job. They should be clear that they were not electing him to get the roads done pucca or lay khadanja. Or get water connections.

It was tactless of him to have made his role clear before his constituents. He lost the election. But what he was trying to say remains true: that he was going to parliament to make laws and keep an eye on the executive. Thakur’s constituents also know it. That is why Muslims did not vote for him. Surely, we should not expect them to elect their own executioners.

Apoorvanand teaches Hindi at Delhi University.
Read all of The Wire’s reporting on and analysis of the 2024 election results here.

Naidu Knows Modi-Shah’s Modus Operandi. It’s Time He Stands Up Against it.

While Naidu may be tempted to seek revenge against his predecessor who sent him to jail, he must not forget that he is merely playing a pawn’s role in Modi-Shah’s playbook of divide and rule politics.

N. Chandrababu Naidu should be in no doubt that the big hug he received from Narendra Modi during his swearing in ceremony as the Andhra Pradesh chief minister was a purely transactional gesture and not indicative of the prime minister turning over a new leaf even after having been downsized by the Indian voter.

No one knows this better than Naidu, that the Enforcement Directorate played a vital role in prompting the state police to build a criminal case against him which led to his incarceration for several months last year. However, the unexpected surge in Naidu’s popularity after being jailed made Modi and Amit Shah dump the incumbent chief minister Jagan Mohan Reddy, who had remained a virtual ally of the Bharatiya Janata Party for five years, supporting every controversial legislation brought by the government in Parliament. I travelled through Andhra Pradesh during the Lok Sabha campaign and during his public meetings, Modi was quite muted in his criticism of Jagan. He was clearly seen as hedging his bets. After his initial public meetings, local newspapers noted how Modi was not attacking Jagan because there was an impression that latter was putting up a good fight.

Until the poll results were out, Modi was mentally prepared to do business with both Naidu and Jagan. Now, with Naidu having swept both the Lok Sabha and assembly polls, Modi finds it convenient to offer Naidu the big hug. This will surely be followed by a series of criminal cases against Jagan Reddy. While Naidu may be tempted to seek revenge against his predecessor who sent him to jail, he must not forget that he is merely playing a pawn’s role in Modi-Shah’s playbook of divide and rule politics.

Naidu must keep reminding himself what he had tweeted in 2019 about Modi’s politics – which has not changed even after the electorate telling him to change his ways.

Naidu had then said, “Modi has systematically destroyed prestigious institutions of India. In BJP government’s rule institutional autonomy and democracy have been under attack.” Naidu must remember this every day, every moment, as he strikes tactical deals with Modi on various issues. By now he would have figured out that even after receiving a setback in the Lok Sabha elections, Modi and Shah are pretending as though nothing adverse has happened and have chosen to continue with their past policies. The mandate is not for this, and it is the responsibility of allies like Naidu and Nitish Kumar to remind the prime minister of this.

It is early days yet and one is quite sure Naidu will soon realise that a leopard cannot and will not change its spots. Modi and Shah are biding for time and will soon deploy their dirty tricks department to break up the Telugu Desam Party. Naidu is well aware of this. He told author Kapil Komireddy a few years ago that his biggest fear was that Modi and Shah would not let his party survive. They would devour it. Naidu just needs to study what has happened with the Shiv Sena in Maharshtra, Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, Janata Dal (United) in Bihar and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. There is a standard operating procedure in place which seems to work on auto-pilot.

When Naidu was incarcerated last September, Pawan Kalyan of the Jan Sena felt outraged at the manner of Naidu’s arrest and immediately visited him in jail. He came out after the meeting and gave a public speech on how constitutional procedures were being violated in every way by the investigative agencies. Though he was a BJP ally then, he chose to openly condemn the manner in which arrests were being made by central agencies, whether it was Shahrukh Khan’s son or some Aam Aadmi Party leaders. Pawan Kalyan followed this speech by making a formal alliance with Naidu’s party without informing the BJP. The BJP, however, continued to hedge its bets and said it had not decided whether to formally ally with Naidu or Jagan. Shah refrained from commenting on Pawan Kalyan’s move to ally with TDP.

So Pawan Kalyan should now remind Naidu of his fiery speech on adhering to constitutional norms and reining in investigation agencies like the ED and CBI.

Pawan Kalyan himself claims to have been a close disciple of Gummadi Vittal Rao, popularly known as Gaddar, a renowned poet, revolutionary and rights activist of undivided Andhra Pradesh, who passed away last year.

As an important ally of Naidu’s, Pawan Kalyan must take some inspiration from Gaddar and ensure that the politics of Andhra Pradesh is not reduced to some transactional deal with Modi, with no broader vision about preserving constitutional values and democratic norms. Parliament is starting next week and the occasion is right for TDP leaders to make their position amply clear on this. After all, this was a key message coming out from the Lok Sabha polls.

Why the Congress Must Embrace ‘Bahujanisation’ to Take on the BJP in Uttar Pradesh

Most of its upper caste leaders have shown reluctance to push Rahul Gandhi’s social justice narratives, including advocacy for caste-based census. This lack of support signals an internal schism that Rahul Gandhi must address to realign the party’s trajectory towards Bahujanisation.

The ever-evolving mosaic of India’s political landscape reveals a compelling narrative about the Congress party, once the colossus of Indian politics, now mired in a steady decline. A significant factor contributing to this descent is the perception of “Brahmanisation” — the ascendancy of Brahmin ideology and leadership within the party without the same getting translated into votes. To revive its dwindling fortunes and mount a formidable challenge against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress must pivot towards “Bahujanisation,” a paradigm shift that empowers the vast and varied tapestry of marginalised communities.

Historical context and political implications

The Congress party, steeped in history and tradition, has long been perceived as the bastion of Brahmin leadership. This dominance has fostered an aura of elitism, alienating the Dalits, Adivasis, and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) — the very heart and soul of the Indian electorate. In Uttar Pradesh, where these communities constitute a significant portion of the population, this Brahmin-centric approach has led to the erosion of the Congress’s support base. These communities, feeling overlooked and underrepresented, have gradually drifted into the embrace of other political entities.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

BJP’s drastic transformation

In a stark contrast, the BJP, once pigeonholed as a party of the upper castes, has adeptly transformed its image over the past two decades. Initially reliant on alliances with parties representing backward and Dalit communities to secure a foothold in power, the BJP has metamorphosed into a seemingly inclusive entity, garnering robust support from the OBCs while retaining its core ideology. This strategic evolution has enabled the BJP to command the political arena, as evidenced by its triumphant acquisition of 79% of the upper-caste vote in Uttar Pradesh during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, despite Congress’s alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP).

Inclusivity and representation

To regain its lost stature, the Congress must wholeheartedly embrace Bahujanisation, prioritising the leadership and voices of Dalits, Adivasis, and OBCs. Historically, the Congress party has held sway in Uttar Pradesh until independent leadership emerged from these communities, championed by stalwarts like Kanshi Ram of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Mulayam Singh Yadav of the SP, Chaudhary Ajit Singh of the Rashtriya Lok Dal, etc. As these communities awakened politically, they perceived that the Congress sought their votes while perpetuating Brahmin hegemony. This epiphany catalysed the Congress party’s decline as these communities gravitated towards parties that mirrored their identities and aspirations.

Also read: Time to Dismantle the Narendra Modi Personality Cult

Emulating the BJP’s stratagem

The BJP’s adeptness in promoting leaders from backward communities such as Yadavs in Madhya Pradesh, Sainis in Haryana and tribal leaders in Chhattisgarh and Odisha, without alienating its upper-caste support base is a crucial lesson for the Congress. The BJP’s nimble navigation to avoid being typecast as a Brahmin-dominated entity while sustaining its upper-caste support underscores the essence of inclusive representation in achieving political ascendancy.

Surmounting internal resistance

A formidable challenge on the path to Bahujanisation is the internal resistance from the Congress party’s entrenched upper caste leadership in the state. In Uttar Pradesh, where the party’s state president and key decision-makers are predominantly upper-caste including the likes of Pramod Tiwari, Avinash Pande, Aradhana Misra Mona, Ajay Rai and Rajeev Shukla. Most of its upper caste leaders have shown reluctance to push Rahul Gandhi’s social justice narratives, including advocacy for caste-based census. This lack of support signals an internal schism that Rahul Gandhi must address to realign the party’s trajectory towards Bahujanisation.

Embracing the ethos of social justice

Rahul Gandhi’s vow to social justice and inclusivity must become the bedrock of the Congress’s renaissance. By marginalising leaders resistant to change and fostering a new cadre reflective of India’s diverse populace, the Congress party can rekindle its rapport with the electorate. This transformative shift would not only enhance the party’s allure among the marginalised communities but also manifest a sincere dedication to addressing their plights and aspirations.

Demographic dynamics and changing election template in Uttar Pradesh

In Uttar Pradesh, the demographics are strikingly diverse. Muslims, comprising approximately 19% of the state’s populace, have long served as a pivotal fulcrum in the electoral balance. Yet, the tableau of elections both within the state and on a national stage has undergone a profound metamorphosis over the past decade. Gone are the days of multifaceted electoral contests; until 2012, a 25-28% vote share was often a golden ticket to victory. Now, the political arena has distilled into a sharp dichotomy, and for the Congress to remain a viable contender, it must secure an augmented vote bank, aiming for nothing less than a 40-45% share to guarantee triumph.

Also read: Unexpected Losses and Reduced Margins: What Went Wrong for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh?

To amass this crucial additional support, the party must not only champion Dalit and OBC leadership but also weave a tapestry of genuine social equality. Mere rhetoric will no longer suffice; the party must cultivate and elevate new leaders from these communities, ensuring their voices resonate powerfully within the state’s political symphony.

Dalits constituting about 21% and the OBCs around 42% form a substantial majority. The Congress’s upper-caste leadership has failed to connect with these communities, with 79% of upper-caste voters swinging to the BJP, according to the CSDS survey. This demographic shift highlights the urgent need for the grand old party to rebuild its base among the Dalits and OBCs.

The road ahead 

The Congress stands at a pivotal juncture where its survival and resurgence hinge on its ability to metamorphose. The lessons gleaned from the BJP’s strategic inclusivity and the historical context of its own decline underscore the necessity of transcending Brahmanisation. Embracing Bahujanisation, with its assurance of inclusive representation and social justice, is not merely a strategic imperative for the Congress party but a moral one. This transformation, though arduous, is essential for the Congress to mount a formidable challenge against the BJP and reestablish itself as the true harbinger of the diverse and vibrant Indian democracy.

The Congress orchestrated a laudable spectacle in Uttar Pradesh during the recently concluded 2024 Lok Sabha elections, garnering more votes than the BSP contesting on less than 1/4th the seats that the BSP contested and capturing six seats — its most stellar performance in the state since the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. Yet, how long can this ephemeral success be sustained, merely buoyed by Rahul Gandhi’s pledges? The hour has come for Congress to transmute its proclamations into palpable deeds.

To initiate this metamorphosis, the party could enthrone a Dalit or OBC leader to helm its endeavours in the state, thus planting seeds of genuine inclusivity. Furthermore, a profound reformation of its political affairs committee is imperative. This body is presently an edifice of upper caste hegemony with 44 members —around 70%, including 16 upper caste Muslims — contrasted starkly by a paltry 11 OBCs and an almost invisible representation of Dalits at six. Such a skewed mosaic demands reconfiguration to mirror a tapestry of inclusivity and equitable leadership, ensuring the Congress does not merely whisper of equality but enacts it in its very sinews.

Read all of The Wire’s reporting on and analysis of the 2024 election results here.