Upsurge in Voter Turnout in 10 Reserved Seats May Benefit Congress in Madhya Pradesh

The ten reserved seats of the state recorded a jump of 10% to 16%. The Congress sees this as a sign of a change while the BJP claims it is a renewed Modi wave.

Bhopal: In Madhya Pradesh, reserved seats have recorded a whopping 10% to 16.3 % surge in voting turnout, according to the Election Commission of India (EC).

The state has 29 parliamentary seats, of which ten seats are reserved for Schedule Caste and Schedule Tribe. According to 2011 Census, SC/STs comprise 36.61 % of the state population (SC: 15.51 %, ST: 21.1 %). Out of the ten seats, Tikamgarh, Bhind, Dewas and Ujjain are reserved for SCs, while Shahdol, Mandala, Betul, Ratlam, Dhar, and Khargone are reserved for STs.

Tikamgarh has recorded the highest surge at 16.33% upsurge, while Dewas recorded the lowest jump of 8.76% in voter turnout from last general election. Overall, EC data suggests that there has been a 11.15 % surge from 2014.

Of ten reserved seats, Congress president Rahul Gandhi addressed rallies in eight constituencies, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned in four.

The BJP has dominated the tribal region for the last three decades. In the 2014 general election, the BJP won all the reserved seats, but lost Ratlam in the 2015 by-election to the Congress. In the recently concluded assembly elections, however, the Congress fared better than the BJP in the reserved seats.

The reason of high turnout

Addressing a press meeting after the last phase of polling, state Chief Electoral Officer, V.L. Kantha Rao said, “We are not on top as far as overall voting percentage is concerned, as there are states like West Bengal where 80% voting is normal. But we have been on top in all the four phases as far as increase in voter turnout is concerned. In the seventh phase in Malwa-Nimar region, the voting percentage was beyond 75%. Besides, we have recorded massive surge in reserved seats, which is quite astonishing.”

Also read: The Inevitable Saffronisation of the Bhopal Elections Is in Full Swing

When asked about a reason for this massive jump, he said, “Though we have performed well overall,  hyper local and regional campaign content, doorstep delivery of voters slip, proximity to polling booths and a fair and fearless environment are the major reasons behind the high jump in voting percentage.”

But political parties and experts attribute the surge to different reasons.

The Congress has claimed that the high turnout shows the anger of voters against the current regime and local leaders. It said that the locals have shown trust their trust in Rahul Gandhi and Congress.

The BJP, on the other hand, believes that the upsurge can be attributed to a strong Modi wave.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and other leaders at an election rally in Khargone district of Madhya Pradesh on May 17, 2019. Credit: PTI

According to senior journalist Ashutosh Shukla, the rise of two political outfits in last couple of years in Madhya Pradesh – the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP) and Jai Adivasi Yuva Sangathan (JAYS) – in different pockets of the state has created political awareness among tribal voters. This, he said, is a main reason behind the high voting percentage.

“Both the parties fight for the rights of tribals and Dalits and they have a huge influence over tribal and SC voters,” Shukla said.

GGP has influence in Shahdol, Mandala, Balaghat, Chhindwara, Sidhi and Betul parliamentary seats which share the border with Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh.

While JAYS is playing key role in the seats of Malwa-Nimar region such as Dewas, Ratlam, Dhar, Khargone, Khandwa, bordering Gujarat, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan have an impact on other seats of the region.

Changing tides

Both have given a wide berth to national parties. But since the last assembly election, the JAYS has tilted towards the Congress and supported the grand old party in both the assembly and general elections.

“The reserved seats votes have been slipping from BJP and tilting towards Congress. The reasons are numerous,”said GGP leader Gulzar Sing Markam.

Referring to the Supreme Court’s recent order on the Forest Rights Act and jump in Dalit atrocities, Markam said,“The BJP has developed an image of a pro-businessmen, anti-tribal and anti-Dalit party, which wants to hand over forests to businessmen – the recent SC order proves it. Besides, the atrocities against Dalits have slightly increased under Modi’s regime and instead of acting, the government has turned a blind eye toward them and is protecting the culprits.”

Backing Markam’s claim, Shukla said, “The SC decision has left a decisive impact on BJP’s tribal vote bank and tribals have started seeing the BJP as an anti-tribal party. Evidently, this has benefited the Congress.”

Also read: BJP Attempting to Destabilise MP Government: Congress

For the last two decades, the Gond tribe has been demanding the inclusion of Gondi language in primary schools, hence, soon after coming to power, the Madhya Pradesh chief minister announced the inclusion of Gondi language in primary schools. The move tilted Gond and Baiga tribal towards the Congress.

Recently, tribal voters of Madhya Pradesh held a massive rally in Burhanpur district of the state demanding that the Forest Rights Act, 2006 (FRA) be upheld and the withdrawal of the proposed amendment in Indian Forests Act, 1927 by the BJP-led NDA government at the Centre.

According to political analyst Jairam Shukla, “Earlier, it was generally assumed that increase in voting means vote against the incumbent government and less voting meant apathy of voters towards election. But, it’s no longer true. The increase in voting doesn’t necessarily mean that people have voted against Modi or BJP.

In fact, it could be the other way round. I believe it is group of silent voters who have come out to assert their choice. I am pretty sure that BSP, which had a vote share of 17 to 23% in Rewa and Satna seats in Vindhya and Gwalior and Morena seats of Chambal-Gwalior region, has lost its votes to BJP in a big way, Shukla said.

“As the BSP leadership is weakening in those pockets, their committed voters too are shifting their votes not to the Congress, but the BJP. We saw it in the assembly polls and would see it again,” he added.

Meanwhile, senior journalist and author Rasheed Kidwai believes the massive turnout proves that the people of the state want change.

“A massive turnout is always a sign of change and high voting percentage suggests tribal voters want to usher in a change in the region,” said Kidwai.

Similarly, during the 2018 assembly elections, a massive turnout was reported in the Malwa region, a BJP bastion, after numerous farmers’ protests – and the BJP suffered a major blow there.

Congress state media vice-president Abhay Gupta opined that the voter turnout in the current elections have been high in states including Chhattisgarh, where the Congress is in power, especially in reserved seats, while in states like Bihar, where BJP and its allies are in power, voting has been low.

“To me, it’s a clear indication that people have voted for the Congress and party president Rahul Gandhi, which has formed government in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan only five months ago”, he said.

Countering Congress’ Abhya Gupta, the BJP chief spokesperson Deepak Vijayvargiya said, “There was a strong wave in favour of Narendra Modi in MP. People came out to vote in strength to ensure that results are not like the December 2018 state assembly election.”

During recent rallies, former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan also claimed to the people that their one vote would make two governments – one at the Centre and the second in the state.

Kashif Kakvi is a Delhi-based journalist who reports on Madhya Pradesh. He tweets @KashifKakvi.

BJP Likely to Retain Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh but Lose Rajasthan: Opinion Poll

The BJP is battling strong anti-incumbency sentiments, but is still likely to retain two states. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity could swing the contest, the survey found.

New Delhi: The Lokniti-CSDS-ABP news pre-poll survey released on November 8 threw up mixed dynamics in three crucial poll-bound states. Known to be the most methodological of all such surveys, it predicted that the Congress is well-placed to defeat its primary rival BJP only in Rajasthan. Despite a strong fatigue against the three-time BJP government, the grand-old party may struggle to find a way to victory in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh – the other two states where the survey was conducted.

The survey was conducted in the last week of October and utilised a multi-stage random sampling method. While in MP, 57 out of 230 seats going for polls were surveyed, 50 of the 200 constituencies were surveyed in Rajasthan. In both the states, more than 5,500 people were interviewed. In 30 of the 90 seats surveyed in Chhattisgarh, there were just over 3,000 respondents.

Also Read: With Anti-Incumbency in the Air, BJP Is Picking Its Candidates Carefully in MP

“…the surveys found that the BJP to be the electoral preference of about 43% of the voters in Chhattisgarh (7 percentage points ahead of the Congress), 41% in Rajasthan (4 points behind the Congress) and 41% in Madhya Pradesh (just a point ahead of the Congress),” the survey concluded.

The survey found a strong anti-incumbency factor against the Vasundhara Raje government in Rajasthan, there is only a degree of fatigue among the electorate vis-a-vis Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh in MP and Chhattisgarh.

The BJP’s decisive edge in Chhattisgarh, the survey says, is because of around the state’s triangular contest. The alliance between Ajit Jogi’s Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Communist Party of India (CPI) is predicted to corner 15% of the votes, mostly from the Congress’s traditional base.

The Congress’s decision to contest separately, despite the JCC and BSP willing to form a larger anti-BJP front, could boomerang.

Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje is battling strong anti-incumbency, the poll found. Credit: PTI/File Photo

Important takeaways

The Congress party’s consistent focus on agrarian distress over the past two years seems to have worked. The opinion poll finds that the party is likely to get a greater share of rural votes than the BJP in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Rural voters constitute 70% of the electorate in these states. However, in Chhattisgarh, rural voters appear to be happy with the Raman Singh-led BJP government.

However, the survey makes an important distinction. While both the Congress and BJP enjoy similar support among land-owning farmers – a margin of not more than two or three percentage points between the two parties, the saffron party is losing the support of landless agricultural labourers.

The BJP will be reassured by the survey’s finding that the urban electorate still firmly support it.

Also Read: Rajasthan’s Third Front Is Unlikely to Make a Sizeable Dent in Upcoming Polls

A common finding that emerged from the survey is that most voters identified “unemployment and price rise” as the most important issue on which they will vote. This indicates that the opposition campaign on the two issues against the Narendra Modi government may be working on ground.

“It must be pointed out that a very few respondents spontaneously identified emotive issues such as the Ayodhya dispute, cow protection, reservation, triple talaaq, SC-ST Act and the like as the most important election issues. They did so only when they were specifically asked separate questions about them, but not in their own volition,” the report notes.

‘Undecided voters’

Crucially, the survey did not find a direct correlation between welfare measures initiated by the state governments and voter preferences. “Merely 5 to 7% said that development and governance would be the most important election issue for them the coming state elections,” the report states. It added that the respondents “rated quite highly” the state government’s performance on governance-related matters like electricity supply, roads, health, education and so on.

The survey backed ground reports concluding that the anti-incumbency sentiment is strongest in Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, the respondents were divided on the whether they wanted a different government. And in Chhattisgarh, the anti-incumbency, although substantial, might not see the end of the Raman Singh government.

Despite Modi’s popularity, the report indicates that the Centre no longer enjoys a corruption-free tag. Barring Rajasthan, a majority of people thought that the Union government was corrupt.

However, what was interesting is the significantly large number of “undecided voters” in the last week of October, who could shift the results in either way. MP had the least number of such voters (12%). In Rajasthan, 22% of the voters were undecided and 26% in Chhattisgarh, large enough to swing the polls.

The survey notes that allegations of corruption against the state and Union government by the Congress does not resonate among voters despite their awareness of such controversies. “Across all the three states, two in every five voters were found to be aware of the PNB/Nirav Modi scam and over one in every three about the Rafale aircraft controversy. However, interestingly, this growing awareness about corruption allegations is not making too many voters view the Narendra Modi government as being ‘very corrupt’. Moreover, the alleged scandals do not seem to have hand any negative effect on prime minister Narendra Modi’s personal popularity,” the report says.

Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan remains popular even after three terms. Credit: PTI

Modi’s popularity

The survey added added that Modi’s popularity continued to remain high. In fact, he is most liked in Rajasthan, despite the high anti-incumbency. It is the only state where Modi’s popularity soared above the 50% mark, followed by Chhattisgarh (48%) and Madhya Pradesh (39%).

In Madhya Pradesh, Rahul Gandhi is more liked than Modi. Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia and chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan too were preferred over Modi in the state.

Despite Modi’s popularity, the report indicates that the Centre no longer enjoys a corruption-free tag. Barring Rajasthan, a majority of people thought that the Union government was corrupt.

Also Read: From ‘Pappu’ and ‘Mama’, the Rise of Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh

This indicates that the BJP will have to rely on the prime minister’s campaign to tide over the strong anti-incumbency sentiment.

In MP, the polls, although a close contest between the two parties, is likely to be impacted strongly by agitation against the SC/ST Act. Groups like SAPAKS have been protesting against the Modi government for restoring the provisions of the Act that protects Dalits and Adivasis. The Supreme Court had diluted certain provisions of the Act earlier this year, but the Centre passed a law in the parliament reinstating them.

The survey also found that identity-based parties like the Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti (JAYS) could be a swinger in many constituencies. The report says that the parties like JAYS will most likely garner support from the Congress’s traditional voter base. The Congress fielding the JAYS founder Hiralal Alawa on its own ticket assumes significance in this regard.

The BJP might have to rely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity to win the state elections. Credit: PTI

Popularity of chief ministers

Chouhan, the report states, was found to be the most popular leader in the state, giving the BJP an important edge over the Congress. But that Jyotiraditya Scindia follows him closely in popularity will make the state elections close. Congress’s decision not to announce him as the chief ministerial candidate and the perceived factionalism between him and Kamal Nath may impact the party’s prospects.

Similarly, in Rajasthan the sole factor against the BJP is the unpopularity of CM Raje and not a preference for the Congress. Curiously, a large number of respondents were happy about benefits they received because of the welfare schemes the Raje government introduced. Two schemes stood out – Bhamashah Swasthya Bima Yojana (cashless treatment in hospitals) and Annapurna Rasoi (Meals at subsidised rates).

Also Read: Can Kamal Nath Outwit Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Madhya Pradesh’s Longest Serving CM?

However, the unhappiness with Raje’s leadership is so high that the Congress leader Ashok Gehlot emerged as the most popular CM candidate. He is also the most liked Congress leader among the BJP supporters.

In Chhattisgarh, no one in the Congress even comes close to Raman Singh’s popularity. While 40% respondents preferred him as the chief minister, Ajit Jogi of JCC is a distant second at 20%. Bhupesh Baghel, the PCC president, is in the third position with only 14% people opting for him.

Ajit Jogi’s alliance with the BSP could dent Congress’s hopes in Chhattisgarh. Credit: PTI.

The factionalism within the Congress and the Jogi-led third front seems to be hurting the party. The report shows that one in six traditional Congress voters is planning to vote for the Jogi-led alliance. “The survey also found that Ajit Jogi’s alliance to be cornering a sizeable chunk of anti-incumbency vote which have otherwise in all likelihood gone to the Congress. One in every five voters who said that they do not want the BJP government to get another chance is planning to vote for the JCC-BSP alliance,” the survey said.

With such factors in mind, the two primary rivals would look to play upon its strengths and, more importantly, swing the substantial number of undecided voters in its favour.

Why Congress Should Tie up With JAYS, the Adivasi Movement in MP That Began on Facebook

A socio-political movement, Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti is creating a ripple in the districts of west Madhya Pradesh ahead of the state’s assembly elections, and has spurred the dream of creating a leadership of adivasis – for adivasis.

Dr Hiralal Alawa represents the contrarian trend among the beneficiaries of reservation who secure government jobs, join the teeming urban middle class, and sunder their links with the marginal community to which they belong. Few take the trajectory Alawa took – he chose to leave the prestigious All India Institute of Medical Science, Delhi, to return to his home village of Bheslai, in Kukshi tehsil of Dhar district, Madhya Pradesh.

Kukshi has become the epicentre of the Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti, a socio-political movement, which Alawa spearheads. Popularly known by its acronym JAYS, it began as a Facebook page that Alawa created in 2012. His was an attempt to instill self-respect and pride in tribal youths. It is evident from his explanation to affix Jai to Adivasi Yuva Shakti: “We are treated as animals, yet we do jai-jai [hail] of others. It is time we began praising ourselves.”

His pitch found an instant echo among the educated, either already beneficiaries of reservation or studying to take competitive examinations for entering professional colleges or securing government jobs. Discussions on Facebook gradually widened to include issues such as the skewed nature of development and the pressing need to build a leadership owing allegiance to adivasis than to the national parties.

JAYS acquired ample traction in social media to leap out from the virtual world to land in Madhya Pradesh’s tribal heartland. On May 16, 2013, Alawa convened a panchayat of his Facebook followers in Barwani. Over 3,000 people attended. “The consensus was that our current leaders are failing us – they are not taking up the issues of unemployment, malnutrition, the absence of educational infrastructure, or question the manipulation of our cultural identity,” Alawa recalled. 

The success at Barwani inspired Alawa to summon yet another panchayat in October in Indore. The 2013 assembly elections were a month away, and JAYS asked students staying in hostels to turn down politicians whose wont it was to offer them money to campaign for them. “These are the politicians who supply daru [alcohol], murga [chicken], and paisa (money) to adivasis to get their votes. We gave a call to make videos of these illegitimate activities,” Alawa said with a chuckle.

Five years later, JAYS is creating a ripple in the districts of west Madhya Pradesh, where adivasis account for roughly 45% of its population. For instance, adivasis comprise 87% of Jhabua’s population; in Barwani nearly 70%. No wonder its rallies have been quite a draw – for instance, the kisan panchayat it held in Kukshi on October 2 pulled in an estimated lakh of people. The support that JAYS has elicited has spurred the dream of creating a leadership of adivasis – for adivasis. It has prepared a list of 80 constituencies from where it plans to contest in the forthcoming November assembly elections.

Also read: Why Failure to Form an Alliance With BSP in MP Shouldn’t Worry Congress

Simultaneously, JAYS is in parleys with the Congress for forging an electoral alliance. It has demanded 40 seats for itself, but is willing to settle for less than one-fourth of it – and also contest these on the Congress symbol. It’s a case of tempering exuberance with reality.

JAYS will want to enter the assembly to demonstrate that its representatives are made of different mettle. Yet it hasn’t developed sinews to take on the national parties on its own. But fight it will, either as part of an electoral alliance or alone.

Dr Anand Rai, the prominent whistleblower in the Vyapam scam who has joined JAYS and is counted among its principal strategists, said, “We want to align with the Congress because we too want to fight for secularism and battle corruption, of which the Bharatiya Janata Party is guilty in Madhya Pradesh. Also, we do not have the funds required to fight elections nor are our party structures firmly in place. Yet there is tremendous pressure from our supporters to fight the Assembly elections. Our experience will train us for the future.”

But what is mere experience for JAYS could well turn out ominous for the BJP and the Congress. Political scientist APS Chauhan, of Jiwaji University, Gwalior, pointed out, “JAYS and Gondwana Ganatantra Party [another tribal outfit] are like unguided missiles – you just can’t tell which party they might hit.” Likewise, Yatindra Singh Sisodia, director, Madhya Pradesh Institute of Social Science Research, Ujjain, said, “JAYS could well play a decisive role in determining who wins and who doesn’t in as many as 28 assemblies constituencies.”

JAYS has harnessed the virtual world’s tools to bring together an articulate segment among adivasis to froth and fume at the incessant exploitation by those in whom they reposed their faith and hope.

In a way then, JAYS is the adivasi version of #MeToo and last year’s Not In My Name, both of which the middle class elite in metros initiated as social media campaigns that eventually spilled out in the real world.  JAYS represents the imagination of the adivasi middle class that reservation has spawned. Like the better known social media campaigners, JAYS has harnessed the virtual world’s tools to bring together an articulate segment among adivasis to froth and fume at the incessant exploitation by those in whom they reposed their faith and hope.

Unlike #MeToo and Not In My Name campaigners, though, JAYS’ appeal is far wider because it quickly created structures to bring under its umbrella the aspiring adivasi youth wishing to become middle class. It is these students who go to their villages to explain to the elderly why they should support JAYS. There is also a cultural perspective to their rage and activism. “Education and jobs through reservation do lead to assimilation. But it can also lead to an acute awareness of threats to a group’s cultural identity and the need to preserve it,” Sisodia said.

The search for identity

Anxieties over identity are triggered through a complicated process. Born to a school teacher and anganwadi worker, Alawa experienced the stings of stigmatisation when he left home to join a high school in Susari village, where he stayed in hostel. He and other tribal children were derided for their inability to speak Hindi flawlessly. “They used to call us adibasis, not adivasis. The word adivasi means dwellers from ancient times. On the other hand, basi means stale as in basi food,” Alawa reminisced.

In 2001, Alawa shifted to Indore to join one of its coaching shops. The glitz and shine of urban India provided him a frame of reference to feel anguished at the deplorable, exploitative conditions in which his community languished in. After completing his MBBS in Rewa and MD from Gwalior, which was where he adopted the identity of Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti for his Facebook posts, Alawa shifted to Delhi, where he did three years of senior residency in AIIMS. He was contracted for a year as assistant professor in rheumatology. “Though the contract ended in December 2016, it could have been extended. But I decided to return to Madhya Pradesh.”

The decision to leave Delhi was largely because the city only deepened his anguish at the plight of his people. Alawa evoked the imagery of speed to explain the difference between the India he had come out from to reside in the India where he worked. “In Delhi, life is hellishly hectic; people don’t have time to spare. In adivasi villages, life is slow; people play cards to kill time,” Alawa said.

The slowness of life back home was symptomatic of a deeper malaise – the lack of agency advisasis have in determining the kind of existence they should have. It was to win back for his people the right to imagine their own world that Alawa began to organise panchayats far more frequently on his return to Madhya Pradesh than what he used to from distant Delhi.

One such panchayat impressed Rai to no end. Having already met Alawa after reading a media account of him, Rai decided to join JAYS, which embraced him enthusiastically because of the fame he had acquired for blowing the lid off the Vyapam scam. An OBC, Rai symbolises the attempt of JAYS to widen its adivasi base to include other subaltern groups. 

About the panchayat he first attended, Rai said, “There were speakers from outside. There were motivational speeches. The audience was explained the importance of the Fifth Schedule, the provisions of PESA or the Panchayats (Extension to Scheduled Areas) Act, the Forest Rights Act and such like. I felt JAYS could well be the vehicle for change.”

Also read: Is Congress Worried About a Rejuvenated BSP?

Alawa feels most of these Acts, designed for the welfare of Scheduled Tribes, have not been implemented or are infringed with impunity. For instance, the Fifth Schedule provides for a 20-member Tribal Advisory Council to advise the government in states having scheduled areas. Tribal MLAs are to constitute 15 of the 20 members of the Council; the remaining five from civil society representatives.

“The tendency is to appoint all 20 members from the ruling party,” said Alawa. “They agree to whatever the government wants.” The consequence is that the government imposes its own idea of development and welfare on adivasis. For instance, the Madhya Pradesh government constructed pucca houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna. These remain unduly hot until late night, compelling people to sleep outside. Toilets have been built in front of dwelling units, leading to these not being used at all.

“Our idea of development is different. It does not mean having ACs and cars,” said Alawa. “Simultaneously, in the name of development, the BJP government has appropriated more land of adivasis in 15 years than what had been done in the previous decades by the Congress.”

Credit: PTI/Ravi Choudhary

Communal temperatures

A uniform development model for the entire country homogenises the diversity of lifestyles. This is compounded in tribal areas because of cultural interventions that seek to transform their very being and create the new adivasi. Imitating the strategy of Christian missionaries who are said to have brought education and healthcare to tribal areas for evangelical purposes, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has sought to Hinduise the adivasi. “We are opposed to all attempts to change our identity. Without identity, our wajud [presence] will end.”

The attempts to Hinduise adivasis is not confined to the ideational level alone. It is also through the strategy of creating conflicts between Hindus and Muslims. According to Alawa, RSS affiliates trigger communal tension and skirmishes and instigate adivasis to engage in violence. “I have been asking people what harm Muslims have done to them that they want to fight them… Our biggest foe, anyway, is the RSS.”

JAYS gets a thumbs up from Ishrat Ali, who heads the Qazi Council of Madhya Pradesh. “JAYS has re-established the idea of brotherhood in the area. This is a consequence of having an educated leadership. Alawa understands why there is an attempt to replace the flowers of many colours that comprise India’s cultural bouquet with that of one colour.”

There is a structural reason why there is a lowering of communal temperature in west Madhya Pradesh’s tribal belt. “Fact is a lot of adivasis have deserted RSS affiliates to join JAYS. At many places, RSS is unable to hold its shakhas,” Rai said.

In many ways then, JAYS is waging a battle that the Congress should have fought. That alone should be a reason for India’s grand old party to grant a handful of seats to JAYS. It is not just about notching a significant electoral victory before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but also about rallying small groups sharing ideological similarities to fight for India’s soul.

Ajaz Ashraf is a journalist based in Delhi.