Tag: nitish kumar narendra modi

Why Nitish Kumar Dumped BJP and What It Means for Opposition Parties

There is proof that the combination of Lalu and Nitish is deadly for the BJP in Bihar. But can the JD(U) leader prop up the opposition’s plan to take on Narendra Modi in 2024?

Patna: Though pushed to the wall and depleted in strength, Nitish Kumar has called the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP)’s bluff and dumped it, paving the way for the return of the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) government in Bihar under his stewardship once again.

In the process, the wily Bihar chief minister has thwarted the saffron party strategists’ alleged game to play the Eknath Shinde card in Bihar through R.C.P. Singh, a close aide of Nitish until his resignation from the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U] last month. In the process, Nitish has also potentially put a hurdle in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plans for re-election for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

In a quick turn of events on Tuesday, Nitish convened a meeting of his party legislators and announced the breakup of the alliance with the BJP. Simultaneously, the leader of the opposition in the state assembly, Tejashwi Yadav called a meeting of his legislators and announced his party’s support for Nitish. The Congress and the Left parties – CPI-ML-Liberation, CPI and CPM – too did the same.

Nitish met governor Phagu Singh Chouhan and communicated his decision to leave the NDA and resigned as the CM. Subsequently, he called on his predecessor, Rabri Devi, and escorted her son Tejashwi to the governor’s residence.

“Our party colleagues and friends desired that we should leave the BJP’s company. I have abided by their sentiments,” Nitish told reporters near the Raj Bhavan. Asked about his decision to go back to the NDA in 2017, he said, cryptically, “That was a mistake, forget about it.”

The new ‘Mahagathbandhan’ – consisting RJD-JDU-Congress-Left – together have 164 MLAs in the 243-member state assembly. This is an almost two-thirds majority, comfortably more than the number required to form the government. The RJD is the single largest party with 79 MLAs followed by the BJP with its 77 MLAs.

After the 2020 polls, the JD(U), the BJP and the Hindustani Awami Morcha (Secular) of Jitan Ram Manjhi had 124 MLAs against the 122 required to form the government in the 243-member Bihar House.

While Nitish has been elected as the leader of the Mahagathbandhan and staked a claim to form the government, it might take a few days to formalise the other processes, such as the swearing-in of new ministers and distribution of portfolios. What seems clear for now is that Tejaswhi will be the deputy chief minister once again and ministers from the Grand Alliance’s parties will be accommodated in proportion to their numerical strength.

Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar with Rashtriya Janata Dal leaders Tejashwi Yadav and Tej Pratap, in Patna, August 9, 2022. Photo: PTI

What triggered the split?

Differences between the JD(U) and the BJP were getting sharper, particularly after Nitish’s party was reduced to 43 MLAs against the BJP’s 74 in the 2020 assembly elections. Prime Minister Modi and home minister Amit Shah made concerted efforts to undermine Nitish.

First, they replaced Sushil Kumar Modi and Nandkishore Yadav as ministers – with whom Nitish was comfortable – and selected Tarkishore Prasad and Renu Devi selected as Nitish’s deputies. They allegedly reported to Shah directly and ignored the CM. The BJP’s decision to choose Vijay Kumar Sinha as the speaker also did not sit well with Nitish.

There were occasions when Nitish resented the BJP’s brazen Hindutva agenda, but the Modi-Shah combine did not care. For instance, Shah kept repeating that he would implement the National Register of Citizens (NRC) – despite opposition from Nitish, who with the help of the RJD ensured that a resolution against it was passed in the assembly.

Tarkishore Prasad declared the controversial film The Kashmir Files as tax-free without consulting Nitish. Vijay Kumar Sinha used his position as the speaker to defend his party cadres in Lakshisarai, who were caught violating the COVID-19 norms at festivals – for which Nitish admonished Sinha in the House to the surprise of all.

Nitish braved all these machinations by the BJP. What apparently goaded Nitish to split ties was the BJP’s “ploy” to use R.C.P. Singh like Eknath Shinde and Jyotiraditya Scindia were in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh to encourage defections.

“We have evidence that the BJP was using RCP to split our party,” the JD(U)’s national president Lallan Singh alleged, which the party’s parliamentary board chairman Upendra Kushwaha also backed up.

In a way, R.C.P. Singh reinforced this belief by repeatedly attacking Nitish – his mentor – and praising Narendra Modi. Perhaps, Nitish had sensed RCP’s designs well in advance and denied him a third term in the Rajya Sabha.

While the BJP has repeatedly encouraged defections to topple governments or weaken other parties in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Karnataka and some northeastern states, Nitish – a veteran leader who first became a Union minister in 1990 – was never going to be easy prey for Amit Shah. Perhaps Shah underestimated Nitish and overestimated himself in Bihar’s context.

Also Read: How Nitish Kumar Remained a Politician in Firm Control of His Image

Hurdle in BJP’s way for 2024 polls?

That Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar have joined hands once again should worry the BJP. There is concrete evidence to suggest that the Lalu-Nitish combination is deadly for the BJP in Bihar. The two leaders are towering figures in the state and enjoy a strong social base. While Lalu’s RJD enjoys the support of the Yadav and Muslim (MY) communities – which together constitute over 31% of the state’s voters – Nitish is the undisputed leader of the non-Yadav other backward castes and the extremely backward castes.

Unlike in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP has made inroads into the OBC and Dalit communities, the saffron party’s reach doesn’t go beyond the upper castes in Bihar. These communities constitute hardly 13% of the state.

The grapevine has it that by 2024, Nitish will pass on the baton to Tejaswhi and will move to parliament to stay relevant in non-BJP politics. Reports also suggest that the relationship between Lalu and Nitish remains relatively stable. They had become friends when they were student leaders and grew under the tutelage of Jayaprakah Narayan. They also share a personal chemistry which others can’t figure out. Perhaps, Lalu’s release from jail enabled Nitish to directly get in touch with bade bhai (big brother) and accelerate his break up with BJP.

Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. Credit: Reuters

Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav. Photo: Reuters

Tejashwi shows his maturity

Among the flurry of developments, Tejashwi Yadav’s development into an astute politician needs to be noted. Tejashwi, who was Nitish’s deputy in 2015, has learned the ropes of politics quickly. He had reacted angrily and lost his cool at times after Nitish dumped the Mahagathbandhan in 2017.

However, with the passage of time, he was measured in his speeches and approach to the issues. Like his father, he kept the BJP as the focus of his attack and banked on social issues like employment, price rise, health and education against the BJP’s brazen Hindutva agenda.

He oversaw the RJD’s excellent performance in the 2020 polls despite Lalu’s absence. After Nitish attended the RJD’s iftar party and got Tejashwi on board on the issue of caste census, Tejaswhi toned down his attack on the Bihar chief minister and worked meticulously with him behind the scenes to ensure the JD(U)’s split from the NDA.

There is every indication to suggest that Nitish’s return to the Mahagathbandhan this time will be long-term. And in the process, opposition parties across the country will have a strong and articulate operator to take on the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Just ask former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda, who said the developments in Bihar signal the possibility of a good alternative for the nation.

Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author and professor of journalism and mass communication at Invertis University, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh.

We’re Witnessing the Irrevocable Loss of ‘Brand’ Nitish Kumar

The Bihar CM is yet to expand his council of ministers. This could well be because of his diminished clout.

Patna: Nearly a month after taking oath as chief minister, Nitish Kumar is yet to expand his council of ministers. And with the monthlong kharmas beginning on Tuesday, he is unlikely to do it any time before Makar Sankranti marking the beginning of the “holy spell,” from January 15.

Local media has largely attributed the delay to the differences between his Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party, over the share of ministerial births and other related issues. But the larger story here is that Nitish has lost – perhaps irrevocably – his brand image, rooted to his ideological convictions. This was the very quality that allowed him to have his way with ease until three years ago.

Never a natural mass leader like Lalu Prasad Yadav or backed by the jingoistic and hugely networked Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) like Narendra Modi, Nitish still had equals when it came to embodying an idea of India rooted in inclusive values, secularism, equality before the law and justice to all.

Also read: State Govt Documents Belie Nitish Kumar’s Claim on Grain Procurement in Bihar

Liberal scholars

Nitish has always drawn appreciation from the likes of Amartya Sen, Lord Meghnad Desai, Ramachandra Guha and Mahesh Rangarajan.

Ramachandra Guha in one of his articles in 2008 expressed the need of a dozen Barack Obama-like leaders to lead as diverse a country as India and he found Nitish fitting the bill as one of them.

“Rather than searching for a single, brilliant, charismatic leader who can reshape the country, we would be better served by a dozen, lesser (and less glamorous) figures who are, in some degree, Obama-like. In so far as he is not sectarian, does not come from a political dynasty, appears to be honest and committed to good governance for all — not just a particular caste or religious grouping – Nitish Kumar may be considered to fit the bill. He is no Barack Obama, but he is certainly much less unlike Obama than, say, Mayawati or Rahul Gandhi or Narendra Modi. An India of 15 or 20 chief ministers in his mould would be a better, or least a less unhappy and less violent, place,” Guha wrote in The Telegraph on November 22, 2008.

Despite starting off as a chief minister with the BJP in 2005, Nitish loved to host scholars, writers and policy-makers inimical to the Sangh Parivar’s world view.

At a conclave in Patna in 2011, Nitish described Amartya Sen as a ‘powerhouse of knowledge’. Amartya Sen in his address dwelt at length on the medieval age Bihar-born monarch Sher Shah, for his innovative capability to build infrastructures.

Mahesh Rangarajan has discussed the politics and visions of Nitish with this writer in the run up to the 2010 assembly polls.

Also read: Nitish Kumar Is Wrong to Blame Distance From the Sea for Bihar’s Poor Development

Justice

Despite operating with the BJP, Nitish has never allowed the saffron party to influence his ideas and actions in the first seven years of his rule as chief minister. He adhered to his ‘growth with justice’ mantra with panache. To this end, he ensured equitable participation of Mahadalits and women by reserving more seats for them in the Panchayats and other local bodies, made the move to pay lifelong pension to the kin of the victims of the 1989 Bhagalpur riots, fenced over 8,000 Muslim graveyards and gave proportionate representation to minorities in the JD(U)’s organisational set up.

Be it the weakness of the BJP after the exit of Atal Bihari Vajpayee as prime minister in 2004 or the ‘moderate’ nature of the Vajpayee-Advani era, the saffron party allowed Nitish to carry forward his “socialist, secular and inclusive” agenda in Bihar without fuss.

Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar. Photo: PTI

Thus, when he raised his banner of revolt against the emergence of Narendra Modi on the Sangh Parivar’s mosaic in the second decade of the 21st century, he looked very natural in the role. His shifting to the JDU-RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan too looked natural for at the broader ideological level these parties represented what Nitish had been espousing all along.

The liberal scholars, policy makers and also the citizenry at large justified his becoming the CM despite his JD(U) getting 71 seats against the RJD’s 80 in the 2015 elections. By all accounts, he was the best suited for the position.

 A lost brand

The grapevine has it that Nitish is insisting on a 50:50 share for the JD(U) and the BJP in his council of ministers. Even though JD(U) has 43 MLAs against the BJP’s 74, Nitish might make the BJP concede on this point in the given situation and he might be able to expand his council of ministers as per his wish.

But it won’t be a lasting solution. Such rifts will keep on cropping with Nitish systematically compromising on the ideology and values he started off as the CM. After getting back to the BJP in 2017, has meekly acquiesced to the agenda of Modi-Shah’s brand of politics. He shared a dais with Amit Shah and blissfully ignored the violence perpetrated on those protesting against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

His JD(U) helped BJP obliterate the Article 370 that provided special status to Jammu and Kashmir and bring the law prohibiting triple talaq.

And now, he is supporting the BJP in the all encompassing farmers’ stir against the three controversial farm laws enacted by the Modi led government. Nitish’s JD(U) is the only non-BJP party that is supporting the ruling establishment on the issue when the BJP’s long standing allies, Akali Dal and Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) of Rajasthan have distanced themselves from the saffron brigade and are solidly behind the cause of the agitating farmers.

Also read: Interview | ‘Will Have to Think If We Want to Remain in NDA’: RLP Chief on Farmers’ Protest

Because of his systematic compromises with the RSS-BJP on the basic parameters set for governing the pluralistic and diverse Indian nation, Nitish has lost the capability to operate in the socialist, secular and egalitarian ethos that the Congress, the RJD and the Left broadly aim to represent. In the process, Nitish, perhaps, has irrevocably lost his brand image and he seems to be making little effort to recover it.

Nalin Verma is the author of Gopalganj to Raisina: My Political Journey, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s autobiography. He has also authored The Greatest Folk Tales of Bihar.

Under Nitish Kumar the Night-Watchman, Bihar Will Remain Unsettled

The JD(U) leader is back as chief minister but his reduced stature and depleted political capital make him more susceptible to blandishments and blackmail than ever before.

There is a palpable unnaturalness about the new nizam in Patna. A man who has received no mandate to govern has been installed in the chief minister’s office. Consequently, there is a built-in redundancy in this version of the Nitish Kumar arrangement.

Nitish Kumar is in such a pitiable political corner that he cannot even complain that he has been stabbed in the back by those very people who are now pretending to humour him. There can be no joy for him; all he can have is a resentful satisfaction that he has stalled, for now, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s son. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), nonetheless, remains the most potent political force in Bihar, whereas the ‘Sushasan Babu’ wields only a fading presence.

Though Nitish has taken oath one more time as the chief minister, everyone in Bihar knows that he has sustained debilitating wounds at the hands of 31-year old ‘boy’. Throughout the 2020 campaign, the young RJD crackled with energy whereas Nitish Kumar could barely summon the excitement of a sluggish hippopotamus.

It must rankle that the ‘uncouth’ young man never talked back, never dignified the galis that came his way from Nitish Kumar. And, the chief minister, a man who always patted himself on the back for his ‘superior’ politics, was reduced to reminding voters about the number of children Lalu Prasad had had. Didn’t he know how many children Lalu Prasad had sired before the JD(U)-RJD tie-up in 2015? Surely he did; but in 2020 the ‘noble’ man trots out that number to belittle and delegitimise the RJD leader.

A susceptible leader

A much-reduced stature and much depleted political capital make Nitish Kumar precariously susceptible to blandishments and blackmail. None of the entrenched interests – the bureaucracy, the upper castes, the media, big business, the organised crime entrepreneurs – will have any reason to accord him any deference; their compliance will, at best, be niggardly. And, there will be no getting away from the political calculus: just as in the short-lived 2015 coalition, the majority of NDA MLAs will not heed direction from him. All said and done, the Janata Dal (United) is an entity different and distinct from the BJP – just as it was and is from its 2015 ally, the RJD. The onus will be entirely on Nitish Kumar to forge computability, convergence and comradeship with the BJP’s Bihar upper caste crowd, which makes no secret of its sullen tolerance of Nitish Kumar and his pretension to practice a politics morally superior to their own.

However, Nitish’s chief ministerial innings will be hobbled by a far more intractable malignancy: the 2020 vote – assuming it was fairly counted – is no ringing endorsement of any leader or political party; but with practised insincerity, the BJP leadership, from the Prime Minister downward, have claimed a mandate for the Central government’s policies.

Also Read: Nitish Kumar’s Journey From Trenchant Modi Critic To the Most Reliable Executor of ‘Moditva’

The 2020 vote is, of course, an endorsement of the BJP’s politics. The BJP has earned a right to crow. An important state has been retained in the NDA column. The Chirag card was a success. Not only did the young Paswan aggravate the anti-Nitish sentiment, his tirade against the chief minister rather subtly distracted the voters from the Modi government’s deeply flawed policies. The Chirag duplicity was simply brilliant. And it paid off. As did the politics of ‘splinter’ tactics. The BJP generously used its mountainous money pile to sponsor the ‘vote katwas.’

In the second and third phases, the prime minister gleefully abandoned the high moral ground and came down to the familiar tricks of working up ‘Hindutva’ lite passions and prejudices. The BJP strategists can take satisfaction that the prime minister has not lost his ability to use a dog whistle and that he can still work up the voters’ anxieties and fears.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Nitish Kumar during an election rally in Sasaram, October 23, 2020. Photo: PTI

Not an endorsement of the Centre’s policies

Despite all these exertions and excesses, the NDA barely managed to cross the finish line. The ‘Chankayas’ were predicting a two-third majority for themselves. By no stretch of the imagination can Bihar’s 2020 vote be seen as an endorsement of the Central government’s policies, as the prime minister has claimed.

Most outrageous is the suggestion that the Bihar vote is an approval of the way the Modi government has mis-handled the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a government that could tell the apex court that the millions of migrants walking across the land was triggered by ‘fake news’. To cite a dubiously close election victory as a ratification of that callousness reveals a disquieting streak.

And, then, consider the fact that the most casteist of all chief ministers, the yogi from Uttar Pradesh, was one of the BJP’s star campaigners. This is the very man who has practically disenfranchised the minorities and the Dalits. Yet, the Bihar vote is being touted as an endorsement of the imaginary “sab ka saath, sab ka vikas” plank.

Also Read: Forget Gujarat, the Future Belongs to the Uttar Pradesh Model

It is this aggressive manufacturing of a bogus mandate for the BJP’s national leadership out of the 2020 Bihar vote that will further encroach into Nitish Kumar’s limited authority domain. He will find himself obliged to swallow his personal pride and his party’s ‘welfare politics’ and, instead, will be required to underwrite whatever departures from constitutional decency the Modi regime makes. It will be unnatural, as also unacceptable, for the Bihar BJP core social support – the upper castes – to simply let Nitish Kumar be Nitish Kumar.

Whichever way it is sliced, Bihar has dealt itself a bad hand. The state’s upper caste voters have shown a remarkable tenacity as the most unenlightened, most backward-looking group, still smarting under the fear of a Lalu Prasad Yadav who was made to leave “Pataliputra” 15 years ago. In the bargain, Bihar is settling on for a prolonged spell of tentativeness.

Harish Khare is a journalist who lives and works in Delhi.

Nitish Kumar’s Journey From Trenchant Modi Critic To the Most Reliable Executor of ‘Moditva’

After submitting to the BJP’s agenda despite self-professed differences, the Bihar chief minister has now also slipped comfortably into the role of the junior partner in his state.

Patna: Nitish Kumar completed his journey from a trenchant critic of Narendra Modi’s brand of politics to a reliable executor of what is referred to as “Moditva” as he took oath as the Bihar chief minister for the seventh time and his fourth term on Monday.

The Narendra Modi-Amit Shah led-BJP got Nitish to agree to dispense with Sushil Kumar Modi – the last remnant of the A.B Vapajpayee-L.K. Advani’s ‘moderate’ era. Sushil Modi stuck to Nitish as his loyal deputy for about 13 years even at the cost of angering aggressive Hindutva forces that gained primacy under the prime minister and the Union home minister.

At Sushil Modi’s expense, Nitish has got two deputy chief ministers – Tarkishore Prasad and Renu Devi – taking the oath of office and secrecy with him. Both Tarkishore and Renu symbolise the Sangh parivar’s larger agenda of Hindutva in flesh and blood.

Also Read: Nitish Kumar May Be Quiet Now, But His Compromise With BJP Rings Loud

While the electoral success of Tarkishore – a fourth-term MLA from Katihar in the minorities-heavy Seemanchal region – is rooted in the politics of polarisation, Renu, the MLA from Bettiah, belongs to the Nonia caste. The Nonia caste is categorised as part of the extremely backward class (EBC) grouping. They aptly fit into the BJP’s new scheme to appropriate EBCs and women from Nitish’s voter base.

Nitish’s Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] stands reduced to just 43 MLAs, against the BJP’s 74, catapulting the latter into the ‘big brother’ position for the first time in 15 years. Nitish – an ever flexible power politician – has without fuss accepted his “younger brother” status. He has retained his position as the CM but his council of ministers has the stamp of Modi-Shah cleanly embossed on it.

While returning from Bihar’s Raj Bhavan on Sunday after submitting his claim to form the government, Nitish said, “I was not ready to become the chief minister as I wanted the BJP to have its CM but I have accepted the responsibility on the persuasion of the BJP leaders.”

The Wire had reported on November 12 itself that Nitish had created the perception that he was “reluctant to accept the CM’s job” as a part of his well-calculated strategy. Nitish’s statement that he was “not ready to become CM” is testament to this.

Nitish, of late, has begun reemphasising his “three Cs”— an abbreviation of his zero-tolerance for communalism, crime and corruption. “I will stand against the thee Cs as I have been doing all through my rule,” he told reporters before being sworn in as the CM.

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar with deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi. Credit: PTI

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar with deputy chief minister Sushil Kumar Modi. Credit: PTI

A meek acquiescence 

But the fact remains that he has meekly acquiesced to the BJP on the three cardinal issues – Article 370, uniform civil code and construction of the Ram temple at Ayodhya – which he got recorded as his party’s “differences” with the BJP, saying his party’s stance on these issues has been clear since 1996.

His JD(U) supported the BJP by abstaining from the voting on the Bill to revoke Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. His party voted in favour of the Narendra Modi government’s triple talaq Bill, which Nitish had said that was not in conformity with his party’s stand on uniform civil code. The Ranjan Gogoi led Supreme Court’s bench ruled for the construction of the Ram temple on the site where the Babri mosque was razed. The controversial ruling provided Nitish with a face-saving device on this particular issue as he had advocated for the issue to be settled in court.

But his party supported the BJP on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in gross contradiction with his broader political ideology. This led to the axing of his party’s liberal face Pavan Varma and strategist Prashant Kishor. Nitish preferred to dispense with the duo who were critics of the CAA at the altar of his party’s socialist/secular roots and entered into an alliance with the BJP for the Delhi elections in February, when anti-CAA protests had erupted across the country.

Socialist ideologue and the Rashtriya Janata Dal’s national vice president Shivanand Tiwari said, Modi has now got Nitish Kumar – the BJP’s most articulate and reliable partner – to implement Moditva. This is an aggressive brand of Hindutva under the prime minister’s stewardship. “Nitish has surrendered to Modi’s brand of politics by compromising everything he stood for in his about 40 years of political life,” he said.

Some sceptics fear that the BJP armed with a larger number of MLAs, might ‘trouble’ Nitish Kumar. “Why should the BJP trouble Nitish when he is without fuss signing on the dotted line, wherever Modi-Shah want him to? He was a mute spectator to Narendra Modi shouting ‘Jai Shri Ram’ and ridiculing the opponents of the Article 370 for Jammu and Kashmir from the dais. His (Nitish’s) party’s candidates were beneficiaries of the polarising speeches that the prime minister and UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath delivered in Seemanchal and Kosi regions,” said Tiwari.

In fact, Nitish – a master of creating ambiguity – is himself trying to create a perception that he might face some trouble with the BJP in the long run. The reality is not so, for he has given no reason to the BJP to trouble him.

Giant cardboard cut outs of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah in New Delhi. Credit: Reuters/Cathal McNaughton/File Photo

Once a bitter critic

Nitish was the bitterest of Modi’s critics when he took over as Bihar’s CM in 2005 in alliance with the BJP. He treated Modi as an “illicit” element in his conception of the “idea of India” and described him as the “third force” – not supposed to interfere in the affairs of Bihar. He went to the extent of denying him dinner in 2009. He vociferously opposed the BJP’s projection of Modi as the prime ministerial candidate. He dumped the BJP in 2013 on the sole basis that Modi was spearheading the saffron party’s campaign for the 2014 general elections.

He joined the RJD-Congress-JDU Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) in 2015 and retained his CM’s position by defeating the BJP and vowing never to join hands with the saffron party. But he did return in 2017, with Narendra Modi well-entrench as its leader.

Also Read: A Deeper Look Into the Bihar Polls Will Reveal the Enduring Importance of Nitish Kumar

When he took oath as the chief minister on Monday, he looked like the “most obedient” follower of Narendra Modi’s brand of politics. Perhaps none of the BJP’s allies – former and present, including the Akali Dal and Shiv Sena – have surrendered to Narendra Modi in the manner Nitish has.

And against the perception that he might face troubles, he is likely to have a smooth run in his last term as the Bihar CM (if his word is anything to go by). With Nitish’s “silent but well-measured” support, Modi-Shah will carry forward their campaign to try and win West Bengal, Assam and other states going to the polls in the following years.

Nalin Verma is a senior journalist and author of Gopalganj to Raisina: My Political Journey, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s autobiography and The Greatest Folk Tales of Bihar.

Chirag Paswan’s Manoeuvre Has Essayed a Crucial Moment in Bihar’s Politics

Chirag has cast a new political formula in Bihar in his attempt to unite ‘forward’ and ‘backward’ caste groups. His natural ally is BJP, a more powerful party with the same objective.

New Delhi: The Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) has finished with only one seat in the Bihar assembly polls and yet somehow Paswan has established himself as a political player to reckon with.

In a state like Bihar where political parties depend on exploiting caste contradictions to chalk out their social engineering strategies, LJP has emerged as a galvanising force for two opposite ends of the social spectrum. 

While LJP has a noted ability to consolidate Dalits beyond the Paswan community – who are said to make up 4% of the Scheduled Castes – the 2020 polls became an instance in which LJP also became the second-most preferred political party after the Bharatiya Janata Party for the ‘upper’ castes.

‘Upper’ castes – mostly known as ‘forward’ groups as opposed to ‘backward’ groups which hold sway in Bihar – form around 15% of the state’s population. However, representatives from these groups insist that their numbers are hugely underestimated, and that put together, they comprise at least 20% of the electorate – significant by any standard.

On Wednesday, LJP chief Chirag Paswan quite pertinently emphasised on the “impact” the party has made in the election. He said that his “prime focus” had been to make the BJP stronger than the Janata Dal (United) in the Bihar chapter of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). He added that his party would not support a government led by Nitish Kumar. 

Chirag’s affinity to the BJP is nothing new.

Ram Vilas Paswan and Chirag Paswan. Photo: PTI/File

Even when he had walked out of the NDA, he made it a point to oppose only Nitish, while claiming to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Hanuman”. With his father Ram Vilas Paswan’s demise, it was a challenge for Chirag to cement his position not only in his own party but also as an NDA partner. He knew that in order to carve out a space for his party, he would necessarily have to be seen as a distinct political pole, one which is opposed to the two dominant parties in the state, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the JD(U). 

To do that while opposing the BJP, and without the support of the Centre, would have been practically impossible for him. For one, his party barely has any significant vote bank. And two, in his campaign, he had sowed the seeds of a BJP-LJP alliance in the future. 

LJP fielded its candidates primarily in seats that went to JD(U)’s share in the NDA. Many observers believed that LJP was propped by the BJP to weaken Nitish’s influence in the state’s polity, so that it could emerge as the bigger party.

Even at the height of the Ram Janmabhoomi movement of the 1990s, the BJP could not find a foothold in Bihar because of the then chief minister Lalu Prasad Yadav’s staunch opposition to Hindutva politics. After the RJD’s fall, the saffron party was reduced to playing second fiddle to JD(U), and although the party and its Hindutva agenda fattened under Nitish’s chief ministership, it could never actually come out of the larger Lohiaite social justice politics that is deeply entrenched in Bihar. 

Also read: Bihar’s Election Has Shown That When it Comes to Politics, Social Justice Is Here to Stay

Narendra Modi-Amit Shah’s project to expand their party in all states had triggered hope among party workers that BJP could actually break the social justice cage and establish its Hindutva politics in Bihar. LJP, thus, gave the party a way out.

LJP leader Chirag Paswan. Photo: Facebook/ichiragpaswan

Chirag’s reverence for Modi, and the latter’s conspicuous silence on LJP even while it undercut its ally JD(U) explain that the BJP hasn’t ruled out the possibility of a separate front bereft of Nitish in the future. In that respect, LJP’s gamble paid off.

But did this strategy work?

Only one of the party’s candidates, Raj Kumar Singh, won out of the 137 it had fielded. Singh defeated sitting JD(U) MLA Narendra Kumar Singh in Matihani in Begusarai district by a margin of only 333 votes. Chirag perhaps already knew that given his party’s strength and the largely bi-polar focus of the assembly poll, it may not emerge even as a kingmaker. 

Yet, LJP has conspicuously increased its vote share from 4.83% in 2015 to 5.63% this time around. Its vote share in the seats it contested is much higher, enough to have affected JD(U)’s chances in as many as 60 seats. The party got over 10,000 votes each in 89 seats. In at least 30 of them, where it got between 10,000 to 50,000 votes, it managed to affect JD(U)’s chances.

In 27 constituencies, at the very least, LJP candidates polled more votes than the margin of JD(U)’s loss to the mahagathbandhan candidate. 

Chirag also roped in 25 BJP rebels – mostly from ‘upper’ caste communities – who could not manage a ticket from their party, and, in the process, even managed to ingratiate himself with ‘forward’ communities. 

Chirag’s father Ram Vilas Paswan was widely known as the most accurate weathervane of Indian politics. He jumped ships ingeniously to remain a Union minister until his death. Yet, his rivalry with Nitish goes a long way. He lost most of his Dalit support base because of Nitish’s wily moves to segregate and empower the most marginalised among Dalits as the chief minister.

Nitish Kumar at the JD(U) party office in Patna on November 12. Photo: PTI

Nitish’s creation of the conglomerate ‘Mahadalits,’ a large section of whom have been supporting the JD(U) chief in the last three assembly polls, had left Ram Vilas seething. Left with the support of only the Paswan community, who Nitish did not include in the Mahadalit list, he had accused Nitish of dividing brothers in a community. 

Yet, Ram Vilas Paswan managed to hold his own by joining ‘upper’ caste groups who had been struggling to find electoral representation in the state’s two dominant Lohiaite social justice parties, RJD and JD(U). Chirag expanded his father’s strategy to give almost two-thirds of his party tickets to ‘forward’ community candidates in the 2020 polls.   

LJP’s gamble or a political experiment?

Chirag’s electoral strategy is an expansion of the experiment his father had started, soon after he floated LJP in the year 2000. In a state characterised by the ‘backward versus forward’ bi-polarity, both in elections and in day-to-day political practice, LJP under Chirag has set out to break that mould with much more vigour than Ram Vilas.

Also read: Can Chirag Paswan Do to Nitish Kumar What His Father Had Done to Lalu Prasad in 2005?

Ground reports indicated that a large section of around 16% Dalits broke away from Nitish, a fact that even Lokniti-CSDS established in its post-poll analysis. This may be the right time for LJP to make inroads in the community once again. However, at the same time, its model of allying with ‘upper’ caste communities breaches the existing political binary in the state. 

By attempting to unite these historically inimical groups, Chirag has cast a new political formula in the state. Both the groups feel that Mandal politics and the resultant dominance of OBC communities, have taken their political shine away. LJP hopes to fill that vacuum. In a way, its position is quite similar to the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh, which too has been making recent strides to gain the trust of Brahmins in a kind of repeat of its tried-and-tested social engineering formula in the 2007 Uttar Pradesh assembly polls.

However, a smaller party like LJP needs constant patronage from a national force, which explains Chirag’s multiple efforts to stay in the good books of BJP. The saffron party itself has been attempting to break the social justice-driven political ecosystem and establish a Hindutva pillar in Bihar for decades. In that respect, LJP and BJP are natural allies.  

Bihar Elections: Chirag Paswan Says He Helped Make BJP Stronger, Won’t Back Nitish

The LJP leader asserted that his party displayed “courage” in going solo and ended up with a better vote share though it could not convert it into seats.

Patna: Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) leader Chirag Paswan on Wednesday defended his decision to field candidates against the JD(U) in large numbers in the Bihar assembly polls, which observers predict hugely damaged the ruling party’s prospects, saying he wanted Nitish Kumar’s party to be “weakened” and succeeded in the endeavour.

He also declared he will not support the new government in Bihar if the NDA stuck to its promise of retaining Nitish Kumar as the chief minister despite the JD(U)’s diminished numbers in the assembly.

“We never concealed our intentions. We believed the JD(U) headed by Kumar needed to be weakened and we succeeded. We wanted to make the BJP stronger and its heft has increased unquestionably,” Paswan said.

Addressing a press conference in Patna, Paswan said he was happy that the BJP had emerged “much bigger and stronger” in Bihar, and ruled out any possibility of joining hands with the opposition ‘Grand Alliance’, comprising the RJD, Congress and three Left parties, citing “ideological differences”.

He also asserted that the LJP displayed “courage” in going solo and ended up with a better vote share though it could not convert it into seats.

Paswan, whose party fared abysmally, securing just one seat in the assembly elections, said the LJP did not wish to carry the tag of “pichhlaggu“, or one who rides piggy back.

The 37-year-old, whose decision to quit the NDA has been blamed by leaders like Sushil Kumar Modi, a BJP veteran and deputy chief minister, for the NDA’s sub-optimal performance, is hopeful that his relations with the BJP at the Centre will not be affected since many allies of the saffron party, including the JD(U), have in the past challenged it electorally in states.

“If anybody deserves to be congratulated on the NDA’s victory in Bihar, it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi. People have reposed their trust in his leadership and his vision for ‘Atmanirbhar Bihar’. We always wanted to see a government in the state headed by the BJP and supported by the LJP. But we respect the mandate given by the people,” Paswan said.

The son of late Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan maintained that “Nitish Kumar as the chief minister is not good for Bihar” and that there was “no question of us supporting a government headed by him”.

“It is another thing that the NDA in Bihar comprising BJP, JD(U) and two smaller parties – have the numbers and does not need our support,” he added.

Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar. Photo: PTI

Takes exception to being labelled vote cutter

Paswan also took exception to the epithet “votekatwa” (spoiler) used for the LJP in the just-concluded elections by many, including Sushil Kumar Modi.

“LJP did make us lose at least 25 seats by playing the votekatwa. Had things been otherwise, the NDA would have crossed the tally of 150 in the 243-strong House,” Modi told a news channel.

About Kumar’s possibility of retaining the chair despite having won fewer seats than the BJP, Modi said, “Our top leadership had made it clear that he will remain the CM if the NDA achieved power, irrespective of how many seats are won by which party. It is not for me to comment more on issues which are decided in the BJP by its parliamentary board.”

Paswan wanted to know why the LJP be talked about in derogatory terms when it had only worked on expanding its base and succeeded in raising the vote share to nearly 6%, a two-fold rise since 2015. He said the party will emerge stronger in 2025.

About the prospects at the Centre where the LJP is left with no representation in the Narendra Modi cabinet, Paswan said, “We are in the NDA at the Centre and happenings in Bihar will have no bearing on it. Ramdas Athawale’s party has contested in polls against the BJP and the JD(U) has done the same in many states. What we did is not without precedent”.

“If the question is whether we would again join the government, have someone from our party as a minister in the Union council of ministers, I would say we would cross the bridge when it comes,” he said.

Paswan was also asked about his repeated allegations about corruption in government schemes and threats of sending Nitish Kumar to jail if the LJP became a part of the next government.

“Corruption is there, nobody can deny. It is for the government to investigate things. We will keep supplying evidences whenever we find,” the LJP chief said.

He also said he does not think he will ever join hands with RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav or become a part of the opposition alliance. “We have ideological differences with them. Though I salute the momentum he generated for the RJD and its allies,” he said in reply to a query.

Why Nitish Kumar’s Measured Distance From BJP Holds Value in These Times

Even while sharing the dais with BJP brass, Nitish has never joined the party in delegitimising the nationwide protests against CAA, NRC and NPR.

Patna: Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar is currently at the centre of a storm, battling allegations that he has compromised on his socialist and secular ideology to maintain the alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party for the Delhi Assembly polls, or his ambivalence on the Citizenship Amendment Act. 

While this may largely be the opinion of analysts who observe the Centre rather closely, those in Bihar, however, can’t discount the particular political quandary Kumar currently faces.  

After his expulsion from the Janata Dal (United) in the wake of sending a letter in which he revealed Nitish’s “apprehension” about the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh-BJP in a “private conversation” on “more than one occasion” to him, the former diplomat and author, Pavan K. Varma has since sharpened his critique of Nitish’s “ideological drift”. 

However, Nitish as a person and Nitish as a key operator in concurrent power politics remain valid subjects for closer examination. 

Those who know Nitish for quite some time know it well that the brand of socialism as propounded by Ram Manohar Lohia and secularism as enshrined in the Indian constitution have a distinct place in Nitish’s heart.

Varma didn’t actually make any staggering revelations when he said that Nitish had expressed “apprehension” about the RSS-BJP in private conversations. 

Nitish might well have shared his personal opinion on Hindutva with many other personal acquaintances. Otherwise a reserved person, known for his economy of words, Nitish has the proclivity to talk his heart out in private conversations. 

It thus perhaps didn’t bother Nitish at all when Varma – even while he was the JD(U)’s general secretary – attacked the RSS-BJP’s insidiously divisive Hindutva agenda. What stung Nitish was Varma’s “revelation” of the content that Nitish, purportedly, shared in private conversation.

The point to be noticed here is Nitish didn’t deny the “revealed content”. He simply said, “I can never reveal what Varma has told to me in private conversation. Private conversations are not brought in the public realm”.

It is a fact that Nitish Kumar had given a call for “Sangh mukt Bharat” when he was with the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress. It is also a fact that he had stated that he would prefer to be broken into smithereens rather than return to BJP. He has strongly questioned Narendra Modi on the issue of secularism and the idea of India.

Nitish and Modi. Photo: PTI

If one carefully decodes the journey of Nitish’s speeches and statements, one will find very easily that Nitish has never given a clean chit to Narendra Modi despite sharing the dais with him on several occasions. He is seldom in tune with the BJP, despite returning to the NDA in 2017. 

Nitish is a rare politician who has effectively mastered the art of keeping his person and his politics separate.  

When he broke out from the NDA, he had doggedly attempted to unite the opposition to the extent that he was the strongest votary of the six old Janata Parivar factions merger. It’s not out of the way to think that Nitish, who had staged a comeback as the Bihar chief minister after defeating the resurgent BJP in 2015, might have harboured the ambition to emerge a rallying point of opposition unity against the BJP. 

Somehow, his efforts didn’t work and he returned to the NDA despite all his “reservations” and “apprehensions”. But now, he is faced with the challenge to retain his position as the chief minister of Bihar while also retaining his supremacy against the BJP, his ally in the state. 

Nitish must wage wars on two fronts at a time — against his ideological adversary and political ally, BJP, and against the political opponents and ideological mates that the RJD-Congress are to him.

Even in such a situation, Nitish has rejected the NRC, has asked the prime minister to drop the six new questions in the NPR and has left it to the Supreme Court decide on the CAA’s constitutional validity despite supporting it in the parliament.

Also read: Decoding Nitish Kumar’s Curious Stand on NRC-CAA

He has never joined the BJP in delegitimising the nationwide protests going on against CAA, NRC and NPR. Rather, he admonished his administration for detaining CPI leader Kanhaiya Kumar near Gandhi Ashram at Bhittiharwa in Bihar’s West Champaran district and said, “The people have the right to protest”.

He shared the dais with Union home minister Amit Shah in Delhi on February 2 to campaign for a party candidate contesting on a solitary seat in alliance with the BJP. He showcased his government’s achievements in Bihar and attacked Delhi chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal, as a political rival should do. But he neither joined in with BJP leaders’ tirade that Arvind Kejriwal was a “terrorist” or “anti-national”. Nor did he speak against Shaheen Bagh. 

In his latest interview to The Wire, the eminent academic and profound political thinker Pratap Bhanu Mehta said to Karan Thapar, “It is not important who replaces Narendra Modi as next PM. What is important is how Indian society reeling under repeated shocks from majoritarian dispensation will be rebuilt and resurrected by whosoever replaces Modi as the PM”.

If Mehta’s observations are seen in the context of Bihar, Nitish’s successor will not inherit as pulverised or broken a Bihar as Adityanath’s successor will, in Uttar Pradesh.

There are few instances of communal disharmony and police excesses on protesters in Bihar and even the BJP leaders — despite their alliance with Nitish — don’t have the temerity to hoodwink Muslims or question their patriotism in the state.

Nalin Verma is a senior journalist and co-author of the book Gopalganj to Raisina: My Political Journey, Lalu Prasad’s autobiography.