What Explains the Lower Voter Turnout of Muslims in Relation to Hindus in Lok Sabha Polls?

No doubt, the lower turnout (62%) of Muslims creates the perception that the largest minority of India has shown a lack of interest in exercising their adult franchise. However, that is not the full story.

Compared to the 62% voter turnout by Muslims in the recent Lok Sabha elections, 68% of Hindus voted, according to CSDS-Lokniti data. No doubt, this creates the perception that the largest minority of India has shown a lack of interest in exercising their adult franchise. However, this is not the full story.

The above figures need to be examined properly as their voting percentage varies from state to state and even constituency to constituency. In 2019, 60% of Muslims had turned up to polling booths.

There are several types of states. One is where the population of Muslims is relatively small, which are also states where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) happens to be strong traditionally. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Himachal Pradesh, etc., fall into this category. Haryana in 2014 and Odisha recently joined this list.

The second is where the community forms a sizeable population even though the BJP is either in power or is a prominent opposition party. Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Telangana Maharashtra, etc., can be cited as examples.

The third category is of those where Muslims are in good number but the saffron party is not a very influential player. They include Kerala, the Union Territory of Lakshadweep and constituencies in Kashmir Valley.

Finally, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have a small Muslim population but the BJP on its own is not a big party.

Also read: How Did the Muslim Vote?

High turnout states

It has been observed that the turnout of Muslims is high where they feel that their votes matter much. Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, Maharashtra, etc., witnessed relatively high turnout of the community.

Muslims showed enthusiasm in the recently held election even in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, etc., where the BJP on its own is not a very significant party though it is trying to expand its base.

In contrast, Muslims turned up in relatively fewer numbers in states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and even large parts of Odisha. It is due to these states that the Muslim voters’ turnout was 62%, that is, six per cent less than Hindus.

Voters stand in line on Saturday. Photo: ECI

Curiously, Muslims showed keen interest in Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana where they felt that their preference for the candidates of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance would be crucial.

It is in Banswara in Rajasthan that Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the election campaign on April 21 raised the issue of ‘mangal sutra’. Interestingly, the Muslim presence in Banswara is very
small.

The voting turnout of the community can be understood with the help of the data of some constituencies where they form either an overwhelming or substantial percentage of the population.

For example, Dhubri and Barpeta, the Muslim-dominated constituencies of Assam, witnessed 86.8% and 81.02% turnout, while Kishanganj and Katihar in Bihar saw 64% and 64.4% turnout respectively. These two constituencies have a 68% and 45% Muslim population. The turnout was much higher than in the rest of Bihar.

In Uttar Pradesh, the turnout in Saharanpur (65.95%), Moradabad (60.6%) and Rampur (54.77%) was better than the average turnout in the state. This was so notwithstanding the fact that there were complaints of many voters being harassed and turned away from the booths by the authorities.

Decline in Hyderabad, West Bengal

The most surprising aspect about Muslim voters’ turnout is that it was just 45.07% in Hyderabad, where they make up 59% of the total population, which is highest in Telangana. Needless to say, Hyderabad is being represented by Asaduddin Owaisi, the chief of All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM). This figure was one and a half per cent less than 46.56% in last year’s Assembly election. The AIMIM struggled to retain all seven seats in 2023.

It is difficult to ascertain whether there was a low turnout among Muslim or Hindu voters in both the 2023 and 2024 elections. Anyway, Owaisi owes an explanation to this apathy of the voters as he claims to be the self-appointed champion of the cause of Indian Muslims. Or is it that many Muslim voters of Hyderabad itself have little trust in his capability or his style of politics? In the absence of any formidable alternative, they opt to stay at home on the polling day.

In the same way, five Muslim-dominated constituencies of West Bengal witnessed about a 4% fall in voting turnout in comparison to the 2019 elections. Yet Murshidabad saw 81.52% votes which is the lowest since the 1984 election. On the other hand, 77.54% of voters exercised their franchise in Baharampur, where cricketer Yusuf Pathan, originally from Gujarat, as a Trinamool Congress candidate defeated Adheer Ranjan Chaudhary, leader of Congress in the last Lok Sabha.

Malda South and Malda North and Jangipur saw slightly less turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha election in comparison to the last time. Yet the turnout was well over 77% in these three constituencies. Muslims form more than 60% of the population in these five constituencies.

Notwithstanding a slight decline in the voter turnout in Muslim-dominated constituencies of West Bengal the figure was well ahead of 62% which is the all-India average for Muslims. This is not the case in Hyderabad where it is 17% short.

Marginalisation of Congress

As the alternative party, that is, Congress has been marginalised in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and even Chhattisgarh many Muslims see no reason to turn up to booths. In Gujarat, 70% of them still voted for Congress while 29% of them for the Bharatiya Janata Party. This is simply because there is no choice for them.

Contrary to this in Uttar Pradesh, 77% of Muslims voted for the Samajwadi Party and 15% for the alliance partner, the Indian National Congress. Here only 2% of Muslims throw their lot behind the BJP— and that too because of some local factors and not out of love for Prime Minister Narendra Modi or chief minister Yogi Adityanath.

In Bihar too, some Muslim votes went to the National Democratic Alliance simply because of the presence of Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party and other small groups. BJP had fielded candidates in only 17 out of 40 parliamentary constituencies.

From Baharampur to Diamond Harbour: How Muslim Votes Impact the Big Fights in West Bengal 

TMC all-India general secretary and the party chief’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee’s Diamond Harbour Lok Sabha, which he has been winning since 2014, has Muslims forming about 38% of the population. 

Kolkata: At a tea stall in Bhagobangola, one of West Bengal’s assembly segments with the densest Muslim concentration (87%), customers were discussing the elections – from what is happening in the country to the happenings in the state and their constituency, Murshidabad Lok Sabha. But it was the campaign of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] candidate, Md. Salim, that seemed to have interested them the most.  

“Salim has a good chance,” said Safiqul Islam, “His campaign got a good response.” Sk Jabbar seconded him, saying that some people were getting tired of unchecked corruption by the leaders of the state’s ruling party, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC), and it reflected in the enthusiasm for Salim’s rallies. 

In Murshidabad Lok Sabha, CPI(M) state secretary Md Salim is the Congress-backed candidate and hopes to wrest the seat from the TMC. Photo Snigdhendu Bhattacharya

The Congress, which has tied up with the Left in West Bengal, had activated its entire machinery to ensure Salim’s victory, added Jamir Mollah. 

One of them identified as a supporter of the TMC, while others said they were undecided. The gist of their discussions was that the panchayat election result had shown the decline in the TMC’s popularity and Salim’s candidature galvanised the support base of the Left and the Congress. 

The Murshidabad Lok Sabha seat has the highest Muslim concentration in the state – 67%; issues like governance, corruption, employment and infrastructure have dominated the discussions here. 

Of the three Lok Sabha seats in Murshidabad district, the TMC appears ahead of its opponents in Jangipur Lok Sabha, which the party wrested from the Congress in 2019. However, Murshidabad and Baharampur, where heavyweights are in the fray, Muslim votes seem to have sharply split.

The big fights 

The two neighbouring constituencies of Murshidabad and Baharampur have also drawn the attention of the whole state as two of Mamata Banerjee’s harshest critics – CPI(M) state secretary Md Salim and Bengal Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury – are in the fray here. They are known to share a good rapport and are often referred to as the “Adhir-Salim juti (pair)”. 

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

In the 2021 assembly election, the TMC swept Murshidabad district, winning 20 of the 22 seats. The rest went to the BJP. But locals point out that the situation has changed. In the panchayat election, Murshidabad emerged as the heartland of the Left and the Congress’s revival from their 2021 nadir. 

Of the CPI(M)’s 3,187 gram panchayat seats in the state, 563 came from Murshidabad and 1,142 of the Congress’s 2,680 seats came from this district. Going by panchayat election vote share, the TMC’s stood at about 48% and the Left-Congress combined votes at around 40% in Murshidabad Lok Sabha. In Baharampur Lok Sabha, the TMC polled about 47%, while the combined votes of the Left and the Congress stood at around 37%. 

Political observers point out that in West Bengal, the local poll vote share of the ruling party almost always goes down in bigger elections like assembly and Lok Sabha. They attribute it to the various advantages that the ruling party gets in using the administration during the local elections. 

“There is anti-incumbency against the TMC and Salim is a heavyweight candidate who has received the wholehearted backing of the Bengal Congress president. Besides, the TMC incumbent Abu Taher Khan has been largely inactive due to prolonged illnesses,” said Tarik Anwar, a tailor at Azimganj, while explaining why he expects Muslim votes to have split sharply.

“Of course, TMC remains popular among a large section of Muslims,” he added, almost as an afterthought. 

As expected, Baharampur witnessed a nail-biter. Here, Hindus and Muslims both constitute half the population. Chowdhury won the seat with a margin of 80,696 votes in 2019. In 2021, of the seven assembly segments, the TMC won six and the BJP won one. Chowdhury’s hometown went to the BJP.

Now, both the TMC and the BJP have fielded formidable candidates – the TMC’s Yusuf Pathan is a cricket star, and the BJP’s Nirmal Saha is a popular local doctor. 

Chowdhury’s 2019 victory was made possible by the massive lead of 89,061 votes he got from the Hindu-dominated Baharampur assembly segment. In 2021, Chowdhury’s hometown saw a saffron surge, with the BJP winning the Baharampur assembly seat by a margin of 26,852 votes, securing 45% of polled votes, trouncing Congress veteran Manoj Chakraborty, one of Chowdhury’s closest aides. 

But the municipal election hinted at the BJP’s loss of ground in the town, as the party became a distant third in a TMC versus Congress contest. 

Billboard in support of Bengal Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury in Baharampur Lok Sabha which he has won five times. Photo Snigdhendu Bhattacharya

“When Dada is the candidate, many equations change,” said Manirul Islam Sarkar, referring to the Bengal Congress president, popularly referred to as Dada in Baharampur. “If Pathan is a star, so is Dada in his own capacity.” Chowdhury is also the leader of the Congress in the outgoing Lok Sabha, a post that came in recognition of his five consecutive victories.  

But the Lok Sabha candidates against him do not leave him in a comfortable position. On the one hand, Pathan’s election rallies have drawn massive crowds in Muslim-dominated areas and chief minister Banerjee’s welfare schemes have created a strong beneficiary base among women from both communities. The TMC campaign blames Chowdhury for the breakdown of Congress-TMC seat-sharing talks and dubs the Bengal Congress president as the BJP’s agent. 

The TMC’s Baharampur candidate, ex-cricketer Yusuf Pathan, hopes to wrest this Congress bastion where Muslims form half the population. Photo Snigdhendu Bhattacharya

On the other hand, Saha’s candidature had motivated the BJP workers to go for a kill. In Baharampur, Muslims form marginally above 50% of the population. If Muslim votes have split, strong Hindu polarisation could have given them a chance of wresting the Congress bastion. It is one of the few Lok Sabha constituencies in West Bengal where Uttar Pradesh chief minister Adityanath, a Hindutva poster boy, came to address a public rally.

According to Nurul Rahman, a trader at Nabagram, one of the seven assembly segments in Baharampur, two factors weigh in favour of Chowdhury. First, the Congress still holds the seat, which seems to have made it the primary choice among a large section of voters. Second, the Congress and the Left have performed fairly well in the panchayat elections.

“Though the TMC’s campaign branding Chowdhury as BJP’s B-team has resonated with a section of voters, I doubt if the majority of Muslims would dump Chowdhury for an outsider,” he said. Pathan is from Gujarat.   

Baharampur voted on May 13 while Murshidabad went to polls on May 7. 

The South Bengal equations 

In the 2023 panchayat election, the CPI(M)’s best performance in the state was in Murshidabad and the second-best in Nadia, the northern part of Nadia that composes Kriahnangar Lok Sabha in particular. The Congress, too, recorded a presence. 

A similar split in Muslim votes in the Krishnanagar constituency likely made the contest closer. About 35% of its voters are Muslims. Krishnanagar also went to polls on May 13.

In the Lok Sabha election as well as the 2021 assembly election, the contest polarised between the TMC and the BJP here. But in the panchayat election, the Left-Congress combined vote overtook that of the BJP, which has boosted the campaign of the Congress-backed CPI(M) candidate, former legislator S.M. Sadi. 

The BJP has fielded a political greenhorn, Amrita Roy, a member of Krishnanagar’s erstwhile royal family. Prime Minister Modi and home minister Amit Shah have both campaigned for Roy. 

This constituency’s claim to recent fame is its TMC candidate, Mahua Moitra, who won the seat in 2019, emerged as one of the harshest critics of Modi in the Parliament, and was expelled from the Lok Sabha last year following a controversial proceeding by the ethics committee of the Parliament. 

The 49-year-old has been accused of accepting bribes for asking questions in the Parliament. Moitra accepted that she had shared her parliamentary log-in credentials with a businessman and did receive some “small gifts” from her businessman “friend” but refused any involvement of cash or monetary benefits. She has received the full backing of the party chief, who said the BJP wanted to silence Moitra because she troubled them.  

However, the prospect of Left revival has kept the TMC leadership anxious, as the Left panchayat election performance in Krishnanagar was better in Muslim-concentration areas than Hindu-dominated ones.

“This year, the intensity of the TMC-BJP polarisation appears weaker. A lot depends on where the Left-Congress candidate gets more votes, in Hindu-dominated areas or the Muslim-concentration segments,” said a teacher at Krishnanagar College who did not want to be identified. “On the surface, Hindu polarisation appeared stronger than Muslim polarisation,”  he added. 

TMC all-India general secretary and the party chief’s nephew Abhishek Banerjee’s Diamond Harbour Lok Sabha, which he has been winning since 2014, has Muslims forming about 38% of the population. 

Diamond Harbour is a TMC bastion. Abhishek Banerjee won in 2019 with a margin of 3.2 lakh votes and the party’s lead in the assembly election 2021 in the seven segments was 3.6 lakh. Here, neither the Left nor the Congress made any impression in the local elections. 

Over the past three years, the Indian Secular Front (ISF) had started showing some signs of popularity among a section of Muslims and ISF chief Naushad Siddiqi had created a great deal of suspense by threatening to contest from Diamond Harbour. However, he finally did not join the poll fray, which has taken a lot of steam out of the anti-TMC campaign among Muslims in Diamond Harbour.  

The CPI(M) has fielded one of the party’s “young Turks”, Pratikur Rahman, the state unit president of the party’s student wing, the Students’ Federation of India (SFI). While his campaign has a visible presence of Muslims, local residents do not expect any major shift in the TMC’s Muslim support base.

One of the most-talked-about constituencies in the state is Basirhat, of which the trouble-torn Sandeshkhali is a part. Muslims constitute about 45% of the population in Basirhat Lok Sabha and the TMC won the seat with a massive margin of 3.5 lakh votes in 2019. The party maintained its dominance even in the 2021 assembly election, winning all seven constituencies. In the local elections, the TMC polled over 70% of the votes. The combined votes of the Left and the Congress stood close to 20%. 

However, the BJP’s high-voltage campaign over Sandeshkhali, accusing the local TMC leadership of systematic sexual harassment of women, changed many equations. Subsequently, a series of sting videos and statements from local women accusing the BJP of misleading them in lodging sexual harassment charges have added another twist.  

Salim Mollah, a voter in Basirhat Dakshin assembly segment of Basirhat Lok Sabha, narrates why he thinks the TMC’s vote share will dip but the party will retain the seat. Photo Snigdhendu Bhattacharya

Salim Mollah, a shopkeeper at the Basirhat Dakshin assembly segment, said that the Sandeshkhali episode may have two different kinds of impacts. 

It initially triggered anti-incumbency and the BJP quickly started polarising Hindus. Then, the sting videos and video interviews of local women have created doubts in people’s minds over the authenticity of the charges. However, many people have also resonated with the corruption and misgovernance charges that the Sandeshkhali protests highlighted. 

“Even if the BJP planted the charge of sexual harassment, as the sting videos and local women allege, none is doubting the misrule that the TMC had imposed on Sandesahkhali. I won’t be surprised if the TMC loses some votes to the ISF and the Left-Congress alliance,” said Athar Mollah, a grocer at Minakhan.  

He added that what remains to be seen is if the Left can take advantage of the BJP’s embarrassments due to the sting videos and prevent the Hindu polarisation. 

The CPI(M)’s Nirapada Haldar, a former Sandeshkhali MLA whom the police had jailed during the Sandeshkhali agitation, is the Congress-backed Left candidate. The BJP has fielded Rekha Patra, who herself claims to be a victim of sexual harassment. However, the sting video and subsequent interviews by complainants have also dragged her name into what the TMC described as a “conspiracy to defame Bengal and insult Bengal’s mothers and sisters.”

To retain Basirhat, of which the trouble-torn Sandeshkhaki is a part, the TMC has nominated former MP and current MLA Haji Nurul Islam. Photo: Snigdhendu Bhattacharya

Rafikul Mandal, a farmer at Minakhan, said he was confident that Muslims would remain polarised in favour of the TMC due to the BJP’s communal campaign over Sandeshkhali. 

“The BJP’s main campaign is that Muslims are torturing Hindu women. Just imagine how insulting it is. I had decided to vote against the TMC this time but the BJP’s campaign makes it necessary that we prioritise the BJP’s defeat,” Mandal said. 

This is the second of a two-part series on Muslim voting in West Bengal. Read the first part here

Snigdhendu Bhattacharya is an independent journalist.

As Telangana Poll Date Nears, Parties Set Sights on the Muslim Vote

The opinion of Muslims continues to be divided. To vote for the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi or the Congress party remains a key question.

New Delhi: As the polling day (November 30) approaches in Telangana, all political parties, except the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have clearly set their sights on the Muslim vote that comprises around 13% of the electorate. Political rhetoric and declarations were carefully worded to woo the community. But, given the nature of statements of prominent Muslim organisations and influential clerics, it is unclear who will overwhelmingly bag the Muslim vote. A fractured Muslim vote remains a possibility.

Those familiar with recent developments say that this is because the opinion of Muslims continues to be divided. To vote for the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) or the Congress remains a key question.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

For instance, a panel of well known Muslim clerics, which included Maulana Khalid Saifullah Rahmani, the All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) president, took cognisance of this very fact. An excerpt from a statement the panel released reads thus: “Undoubtedly, on this occasion the scenario should be that the support for any party be based on consensus. Or, at least a decision should be based on the view of the large majority. But taking into consideration the ground realities, it appears that the community’s opinion is divided. This is a very delicate situation.”

The statement further underscores the need to stop Muslim votes from being divided, and points out that it is on account of this possibility that the panel decided not to support any political party. Instead, it requested the members of the community to vote for a candidate who has secular credentials, one “who is less harmful for the community”.

Given the fact that Maulana Khalid is the fifth president of the AIMPLB, he continues to remain an influential figure. Though a non-political figure, he enjoys the support of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) president Asaduddin Owaisi, who in July this year, led a delegation of clerics, including Maulana Khalid, to Telangana chief minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao’s camp office in Pragathi Bhavan to urge him to not support the Uniform Civil Code.

In yet another example, the Jamaat-e-Islami’s Telangana chapter refrained from announcing their support to either the Congress or the BRS. Instead, its political committee chose to support individual candidates contesting the 119 assembly constituencies in Telangana. Unlike their previous stance, the Jamaat chose to support 70 Congress candidates, 40 BRS candidates, and seven AIMIM candidates. This is a change in its approach. In 2014, the Jamaat supported the Congress, and in 2018, after extensive deliberations and sharing concerns with the top party leadership, announced its support to the BRS [then Telangana Rashtra Samithi].

“In the meetings which led to the announcement, there were internal differences between political committee members. Some wanted to go ahead and openly support the BRS. But others felt that the situation was changing, and that the inroads Congress appears to have been making must not be ignored. Eventually, extensive consultations and ground surveys were done. They decided to go for a non-partisan approach,” a Jamaat member closely following the developments told The Wire.

In yet another example, Jamiat-i-Ulama’s two factions ended up throwing their weight behind the two contenders. While the Jamiat’s Maulana Arshad Madani faction, with its headquarters in Yakutpura in the Old City, endorsed the BRS, the Maulana Mahmood Madani faction, which operates from Amberpet’s Zam Zam Masjid, supported the Congress. In fact, in the run up to the elections, the latter was busy extensively touring many of Telangana’s 33 districts to question CM KCR’s policies and treatment of Muslims, especially those residing in districts other than Hyderabad.

Also Read: Can the Resurgent Congress Wrest Telangana from the BRS?

Muslims constitute over 50 lakh of Telangana’s population. In the absence of official figures, the number of Muslim voters is estimated to be in the vicinity of 40 lakh. According to the 2011 census, the concentration of Muslims is highest in composite districts of Hyderabad, Ranga Reddy and Nizamabad. Members of political parties believe that there are around 30 assembly constituencies where the Muslim vote matters.

The change in sentiment is palpable. A section of the Muslim community appears to be disenchanted with the BRS. For their part, the pink party did make impressive budgetary allocations, with a significant portion going to the over 200 minority residential schools, and other minority welfare schemes. During its tenure, Hyderabad, once a riot-prone city, did not see any major communal clash. Several Muslims themselves have admitted that Telangana and Hyderabad are relatively much safer compared to states in North India.

“KCR has backed many of Narendra Modi’s policies, including demonetisation and GST. The promised 12% reservations for Muslims has not materialised. But more importantly, there is a persistent perception among many Muslims that KCR has a secret understanding with Modi. This perception is unlikely to fade. Many are talking in such terms,” said Mohammed Faiz (name changed), a small businessman from Malakpet, an AIMIM stronghold.

Some believe that the only way to remove the BJP from power is to support the Congress. This is likely because parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held mid-next year, shortly after the assembly elections. Given the differing opinions, it remains unclear how the Muslim community will vote. The answer will be clear only on December 3, when votes will be counted.

Owaisi and AIMIM’s ‘Expansion’ Has More To Do With Political Survival

The party has often been accused of aiding the BJP by scuttling the vote bases of other parties. As it plans to contest elections in Gujarat, Karnataka and Rajasthan, it faces the same allegation again.

A familiar criticism has once again been levelled at the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) as it plans to expand its electoral base by making its debut in assembly elections to Gujarat, Karnataka and Rajasthan: that the party is helping the BJP by fragmenting the vote bases of other parties.

In the recent bypoll to the Gopalganj assembly segment in Bihar, the BJP candidate managed to pip the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’s candidate by a margin smaller than 2,000 votes. Political observers have noted that AIMIM’s candidate Abdus Salam – a little-known leader – garnered more than 12,000 votes.

Gopalganj district has a Muslim population of 17.02% and the AIMIM – which draws its base almost exclusively from the community – had no chance to win the poll. When the party fielded its candidate, many political observers believe it was to take a share of votes from the RJD’s traditional voter base.

The Asaduddin Owaisi-led party’s decision to contest the Gopalganj bypoll was also in contrast to its strategy in the 2020 Bihar assembly polls. At the time, it contested 20 seats, half of which have either a majority Muslim population or a sizeable presence of the community. Also, unlike Abdus Salam, several of the candidates it put up then are seasoned politicians, some of whom had been elected as legislators from other parties.

In various assembly elections – excluding its home state of Telangana – that have been held since 2014, the AIMIM had fielded candidates in over 500 constituencies. In an overwhelming number of them, the party never had the chance to win because the Muslim community constituted only a small minority.

It won only two seats each in the 2014 and 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections and five in Bihar in 2020 – although four of them crossed over to the RJD in June this year. One AIMIM MLA won the Kishanganj by-poll in Bihar in October 2019.

So out of over 500 seats that the poll outside Telangana, the party could win only 10. In the rest, it lost disastrously and has been accused by parties like the Congress of cutting into its votes and aiding the BJP.

AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi. Photo: Facebook/Asaduddinowaisi

Understanding AIMIM’s strategy

For understanding the political strategy of this Hyderabad-based party, one will have to go back to its history when it even extended an olive branch to the Congress in the post-Babri Masjid demolition years.

In 1993, the party faced a split when some influential leaders parted ways with then-party chief Salahuddin Owaisi (Asaduddin’s father), accusing him of having a “secret understanding” with then-prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao. The leaders formed the Majlis Bachao Tehreek, saying Rao’s inaction was just as responsible for the demolition of the Babri masjid as the karsewaks who pulled it down.

As it cosied up to the Congress, the Hyderabad-based party was facing an enormous challenge after the emergence of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), first under N.T. Rama Rao and later his son-in-law, Chandrababu Naidu. In the 1994 Andhra Pradesh assembly election, the TDP won 226 seats out of the 294 on offer and the Congress only 26. The AIMIM’s tally was just one, down from four in the previous election. Incidentally, the newly-formed Majlis Bachao Tahreek did better, winning two seats.

AIMIM’s long friendship with the same secular Congress continued till 2012, that is just two years before the advent of Narendra Modi and hewing out of Telangana from Andhra Pradesh. The arrest of Asaduddin’s younger brother Akbaruddin Owaisi in a hate speech case was one of the reasons behind relations fraying.

The party strongly opposed the creation of Telangana, but suddenly changed its stand. To avoid further embarrassment, it has since supported the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) – which was formed with the sole purpose of achieving statehood for the region.

Also Read: Why Does the Owaisi Factor Work Much More in Bihar Than in UP or Bengal?

Why doesn’t AIMIM expand within Telangana?

Although AIMIM has plans to expand across the country, it has surprised many that the party has not attempted to grow within Telangana. For several decades, it restricted itself to eight seats in the Old City area of Hyderabad.

There are many assembly constituencies in districts of Telangana like Nizamabad, Medak, Adilabad, Mehboobnagar and Karimnagar where Muslims form a substantial population. The community constitutes 15.35%, 11.29%, 10.07%, 8.24% and 6.48% respectively in these five districts. In urban centres of these districts, the proportion is even higher. In over one-fourth of the 119 assembly seats in Telangana, Muslims form enough population to make or mar the prospect of any party.

Yet the AIMIM does not field any candidate outside the eight seats in the Old City of Hyderabad. In the last assembly polls in 2018, the party supported the TRS in all 111 remaining seats. The situation is likely to be the same when the state votes again next year.

In contrast, it has put up candidates in assembly elections in West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Now, it has decided to fight in 30 seats in Gujarat, almost all considered as strongholds of the Congress party. In many of these assembly segments, Muslims constitute a smaller percentage of the population than they do in Telangana. Muslims are 12.7% of the population in Telangana, which is higher than in Gujarat (9.7%) and Maharashtra (11.54%).

The AIMIM has announced that it would fight in 100 seats in the 2023 assembly election of Karnataka, where Muslims form 12.92% of the population. In 2018, it supported the candidates of Janata Dal (Secular).

Though Muslims constitute only 9% of the population in Rajasthan, Owaisi had in May last year announced that his party will “go all out” in the December 2023 election.

By Owaisi’s logic, the TRS is the biggest champion of the Muslim cause while parties like the RJD, Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party and others have “cheated” the Muslim community. That is why AIMIM has fought tooth and nail against them.

K. Chandrashekar Rao. Photo: Twitter/@TelanganaCMO

A pragmatic decision?

Perhaps the pragmatic reason behind Owaisi’s support for the TRS in Telangana is to prevent a surge in the BJP’s popularity in the state. The saffron party won four out of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana in 2019 and has positioned itself as the principal challenge to chief minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao.

In the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation election held in December  2020, the BJP did exceedingly well to cut the strength of TRS from 99 last time to 56. The saffron party’s figure jumped from four to 48. The AIMIM managed to retain its tally of 44 seats.

In the past too, the AIMIM – as a very small party whose pinnacle was to have two MPs and 10 MLAs –  has had to make pragmatic decisions to shift political allegiances for its survival. It had a tacit understanding with parties in power, whether in states or at the Centre.

In March 2022, its Aurangabad MP Imitiaz Jaleel offered to support the Shiv Sena-Congress-NCP government in Maharashtra – which was turned down.

In Bihar too, its state unit chief, Akhtar-ul-Iman, its lone MLA, misses no opportunity to claim that the AIMIM supports the Grand Alliance government led by Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav – even though the parties do not need his support.

So if the AIMIM is really facilitating the BJP’s victories in many states, as critics and opponents allege, such moves can be seen as part of its long-term political investment. The party wants to send the right signals to the saffron brigade and may cash in on it in the future.

It is natural for Owaisi to come down heavily on the so-called “secular parties” because it is only from these parties that he can expect to get votes and the AIMIM cannot dream of wooing any BJP voters. An argument can be made, however, that the saffron party’s Hindu consolidation agenda drives the reverse consolidation of Muslims towards the AIMIM.

It is another thing that AIMIM has openly allied with the same secular parties in the past and most of its legislators outside Hyderabad had started their political careers in parties like the Congress and the RJD. During the 2019 assembly poll in Jharkhand, the state unit president was the son of a very influential Congress minister of the past. Yet, during the campaign, he was heard hurling all sorts of abuses at the “secular parties”.

Soroor Ahmed is a Patna-based freelance journalist.

UP Bypolls: As BJP Wrests Bastions From SP, a Question of Who Is to ‘Blame’

‘If complaints were coming from Rampur that Muslims were not being allowed to cast votes, why did Akhilesh Yadav not register a protest over it?,’ asked a political observer.

Lucknow: The Bhartiya Janata Party’s defeat of the Samajwadi Party in the by-elections held in the Azamgarh and Rampur parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh is a significant blow for the state’s principal opposition party – especially after the debacle of the assembly elections held early this year.

In Azamgarh, the BJP candidate, Dinesh Lal Yadav “Nirahua”, won against Dharmendra Yadav of the SP. Nirahua got 312,768 votes, while Yadav got 304,089 votes.

The Rampur result also disappointed the SP. BJP’s Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi defeated Azam Khan aide Mohammad Asim Raja. Lodhi got 367,397 votes and defeated Raja by a margin of 42,192 votes.

Azamgarh and Rampur were both bastions of the SP.

In the 2019 general elections, SP president Akhilesh Yadav was elected from Azamgarh. He had then defeated Nirahua. Azam Khan, the party’s Muslim face, had emerged victorious in Rampur. He defeated BJP’s candidate, actor-turned-politician Jaya Prada.

After the party’s loss in the assembly election, SP president Akhilesh Yadav and jailed SP heavyweight Azam Khan both resigned from the parliament and decided to continue as MLAs from the Karhal and Rampur Sadar assembly seats respectively. This brought the strength of the party in the parliament down to three.

The by-election in Azamgarh and Rampur was necessitated after their resignations.

Both Azamgarh and Rampur towns have sizeable Muslim populations and Muslims have been traditional voters of the SP for a long time, since the early 90s. However, in the 2007 assembly elections the Muslim community largely voted for the Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party. From the 2012 assembly elections onwards, Muslims have, however, largely voted for SP.

In the Azamgarh by-elections, BSP, by fielding Muslim candidate Shah Alam, or ‘Guddu Jamali’, is believed to have dented SP’s chanced. Jamali, who is influential in the region, got 266,106 votes.

On voting day in Rampur, Azam Khan’s son, and Suar MLA Abdullah Azam Khan, had shared multiple videos on social media showing Muslim voters claiming that they were denied entry into polling booths. Many more similar claims were made on social media.

Atul Chandra, a former editor of Times of India and a political observer, said that Akhilesh Yadav’s perceived lack of interest in the by-polls has proven costly.

“If complaints were coming from Rampur that Muslims were not being allowed to cast votes, why did Akhilesh Yadav not register a protest over it?,” Chandra asked.

Political observer Syed Husain Afsar, an editor of an Uttar Pradesh daily, echoed him.

“Akhilesh appears a reluctant politician at this stage as he does not want to work on the ground like his father Mulayam and uncle Shivpal Yadav. He has disappointed not only the SP cadre but also the secular voters who were loyal to his party in a politically significant state,” he said.

While talking with the media, SP leader, Azam Khan, cast doubts on whether a fair election took place at all. Khan, who recently stepped out of jail on bail, said, “How can it be possible that only six people voted in a locality with 900 voters?”

While talking with The Wire, BJP leader Rakesh Tripathi said, “BJP defeated the arrogant Akhilesh Yadav, who did not even visit the constituencies to campaign for his candidates. Perhaps he was confident in the caste math while the BJP worked at the booth level.”

Tripathi said Azam Khan’s allegations were “face-saving propaganda, as the party president [Akhilesh] was campaigning from his drawing room.”

Congress did not contest the by-elections in Uttar Pradesh, saying its reconstruction was important in order to contest the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

UP Bypolls: ‘Crowd Control,’ Say Cops After Muslim Voters Allege Police Stopped Them From Voting

Suar MLA Abdullah Azam Khan has shared a video showing Muslim women claiming that they were denied entry into polling booths.

New Delhi: Social media users from pockets of Rampur in Uttar Pradesh have claimed that Muslim voters are allegedly not being allowed inside booths where by-polls are taking place to elect a Lok Sabha MP. Police have acknowledged these complaints but told The Wire that it was part of “crowd control” and there was no “bias.” Locals and police have both said that the situation is calm now.

In a video that was purportedly uploaded from the Dariyal area of the Suar assembly constituency – close to the State Inter College polling booth – a man can be heard saying that he was prevented from reaching the booth and slapped by police.

The news outlet Millat Times has tweeted the video, also tweeting that the person who uploaded it has been taken into police custody. The Wire has not been able to independently confirm this.

Similar claims have been made from the Kotwali Tanda area of the Suar assembly constituency, from near the State Inter College booth.

Suar MLA Abdullah Azam Khan has shared multiple videos showing Muslims claiming that they were denied entry into polling booths. One man is heard saying police beat up someone.

 

In another video accessed by The Wire, Samajwadi Party candidate Aseem Raza is seen having a tiff with the police. He is heard stating that those coming in to cast votes should be allowed into booths and that no one should be stopped. 

The Wire reached out to the office of the Superintendent of Police in Rampur. Inspector Sharad, the Public Relations Officer, confirmed that such complaints have been made. He said that all “these complaints are being resolved.”

“There is no bias,” he stated.

Speaking about the videos on social media he stated that the police was merely “controlling the crowds.” 

The inspector also confirmed that police knew of the videos that are surfacing online with claims of police bias. However, he did not comment on whether police had taken anyone posting those videos into custody.

 He also denied claims of any physical force being used to stop people. 

By-polls are taking place across two crucial seats of Azamgarh and Rampur. The bypoll in Azamgarh is necessitated by Akhilesh Yadav vacating his Lok Sabha seat for an assembly seat. The Rampur seat was vacated by senior Samajwadi Party leader Azam Khan, also for a state assembly seat. Both Azamgarh and Rampur Lok Sabha seats are considered bastions of the SP.

From Rampur, the BJP has fielded Ghanshyam Singh Lodhi, who recently joined the party, while the SP has fielded Asim Raja, The Mayawati-led BSP is not contesting from Rampur. 

Over 35 lakh people are estimated to cast their votes in the polls today. 

In the Lok Sabha polls in 2019 too, an allegation was made by the SP that Muslims were being prevented from casting their votes in the Rampur constituency. 

At the time, SP MP Azam Khan had said, “Several people were deprived of their voting rights. Police had beaten people of one community by entering their houses, even females were thrashed.”

In 2019, SP won the seat by a margin of 1.1 lakh votes, and recorded 52.7% vote share while the BJP recorded 42.3%. 

Will Muslim Votes in 6 Districts Play Decider in the West Bengal Elections?

The districts are Murshidabad, Malda, South 24-Parganas, North 24-Parganas, Birbhum and Uttar Dinajpur. In these six districts taken together, Muslims make up 42.04% of the population.

Kolkata: As the West Bengal assembly elections came to a close on Thursday with the eighth phase polling, it’s the six districts with a higher concentration of Muslims that all poll pundits are looking at.

Muslims make up 27.01% of the state’s population, according to the 2011 Census. They are concentrated mostly in six of the state’s total 23 districts, though the districts of East Burdwan and Howrah, too, have a significant Muslim population.

Having 61% of the state’s total Muslim population (1.5 crore of 2.46 crore) and 40.13% of the state’s total assembly seats (118 of 294), these six districts are expected to play a significant role behind the election results, especially in the wake of a perceived Muslim consolidation behind the state’s ruling party, the Trinamool Congress (TMC).

The districts are Murshidabad, Malda, South 24-Parganas, North 24-Parganas, Birbhum and Uttar Dinajpur. In these six districts taken together, Muslims make up 42.04% of the population.

Of them, the BJP had fared well in the Hindu-dominated areas of Malda, Uttar Dinajpur and North 24-Parganas in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, mostly due to a split in Muslim votes between the TMC and the Congress.

The nature of the contest is different in these districts. Going by the Lok Sabha election voting pattern and more recent trends in public sentiments, Uttar Dinajpur (49.94% Muslim population), with nine seats, and Birbhum (37.06% Muslim population), having 11 seats, are expected to witness bipolar contests between the TMC and the BJP in most parts of the districts.

Malda (51.27% Muslim population) is expected to witness a triangular contest between the TMC, the Congress and the BJP in all 12 seats. In Murshidabad (66.88% Muslim population), a district with 22 assembly seats, the contest is expected to be between the TMC and the Congress, mostly.

The TMC hopes to do better in Murshidabad, Malda and Uttar Dinajpur this time as Muslims seem to be shifting their allegiance toward the TMC from the Congress in the recent months.

Also read: Assembly Polls 2021: Exit Polls Give Slight Edge to Mamata in Bengal; BJP To Retain Assam

“Muslim clerics and religious leaders and people associated with organisations such as Jamaat e Islami carried out a whisper campaign across Muslim-dominated areas to vote for the TMC to bring Mamata Banerjee back to power. Despite this intense communal campaign, we will bag more than half of the seats in the district comfortably,” BJP’s Malda district unit president Gobinda Chandra Mandal told The Wire.

In Murshidabad, several Muslim persons sounded aggrieved with the Bengal Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury – the district was known as his bastion until the TMC breached it in 2019 – because they thought Chowdhury had been more critical of Banerjee than the BJP. Chowdhury, indeed, has been one of the TMC chief’s most vocal and staunch critics for many years.

In 2019, the district had voted mostly in favour of the TMC in the Lok Sabha elections, helping the state’s ruling party in taking the lead in one-third of the assembly segments.

Even though Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis Ittehad e Muslimeen fielded candidates in seven seats in Murshidabad and Uttar Dinajpur districts, local residents did not seem too impressed by their campaign.

However, in South 24-Parganas (35.57% Muslim population), which has 31 assembly seats, and North 24-Parganas (25.82% Muslim population), which has 33 assembly seats, the TMC’s challenge is to retain its share of Muslim votes that helped them remain the state’s largest party, both in terms of seat and vote share, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

In these two districts, the recent rise of the Indian Secular Front, a party led by a Muslim cleric that is contesting in alliance with the Left and the Congress, has threatened to reduce the TMC’s share of Muslim votes compared to the Lok Sabha elections.

In nearly half-a-dozen assembly seats spread over these two districts, the role of the ISF could play a determining role behind the results, political observers feel.

The 2019 Lok Sabha election trend revealed that in south Bengal, the TMC was ahead of others in most seats where the Muslim population of a constituency was more than 30%. This trend was missing in north Bengal, where in Malda and Uttar Dinajpur the Congress, too, drew significant votes in Muslim-dominated areas.

Outgoing state library minister Siddiqullah Chowdhury, who also heads the Islamic clerics’ organisation Jamaat Ulema e Hind’s Bengal chapter, sounded confident that the Muslims will vote for the TMC en masse.

Also read: Bengal: How Infighting Took Away TMC’s Fighting Chance in Cooch Behar District

“There are two reasons. First, the government has worked for the downtrodden in general and it is a common knowledge that the majority of the Muslims are among the economically weaker section of the society. And second, only the TMC can stop the BJP’s bandwagon in Bengal,” Chowdhury said.

However, in South 24-Parganas and North 24-Parganas, the ISF carried out an intense campaign accusing the Mamata Banerjee government of having treated the Muslims merely as a vote bank.

“We have fought the elections not on communal or religious issues but on economic issues,” said Nausad Siddiqui, the ISF candidate from Bhangar, the seat where the ISF was perceived to have the best prospect of winning.

In the 2021 election campaign, seeking votes on communal lines had been an overt trait for both the BJP and the TMC. While the BJP sought to polarise Hindus telling them of the ‘impending Muslim take-over’ of the state, Banerjee too had urged Muslims not to vote in a divided manner. Her remarks were mostly in the context of the south Bengal district where the ISF’s rise has left the TMC as an anxious camp. The ECI had banned her from campaigning for 24 hours, while the poll panel later also cautioned BJP leader Suvendhu Adhikari for calling Muslim-dominated areas a ‘mini Pakistan’.

Whether Muslim votes consolidate behind the TMC or remain split between the TMC and the Left-Congress-ISF alliance may well end up playing the decider in this one of the most intensely-fought electoral battles in post-independence Bengal.

As Abbas Siddiqui Fights for a ‘Secular Front’, Mamata Still Retains a Large Muslim Following

While Abbas Siddiqui’s political entry has excited some young Muslims, many believe they should stick with the TMC because of the work Mamata has already done.

Ghazipur village (South 24 Parganas, West Bengal): People in his village, Ghazipur, in South 24 Parganas are constantly seeking out Baddrudin Mullah’s opinion on various issues, including politics. His stature comes from the 14 years he spent studying Arabic at the high school madrasa run by Furfura Sharif, a reformist Sufi shrine in Hooghly, 45 km from Calcutta. “The mullah got added to my name when I returned after completing my education, earlier I was just called Badru.”

Badruddin Mullah, resident of Ghazipur, Bhangar, did Arabic Studies at Furfura Sharif. Photo: Radhika Bordia

Almost everyone from Ghazipur has at some point visited Furfura Sharif, which is less than 50 km away. The shrine rose to prominence in the late 19th century, under Abu Bakr Siddiqui, venerated as a pir, hailed as an educationist, social reformer and religious leader. The shrine’s influence over Bengali Muslims spreads across the state and beyond, but is especially strong in the rural areas of South Bengal. The Furfura Fatehia senior high school and college that Badruddin attended was established by Abu Bakr.

This strong association with Furfura Sharif has thrown Baddrudin into a dilemma. He was all set to vote for Mamata Banerjee until March 19, when Naushad Siddiqui was declared the Indian Secular Front’s (ISF’s) candidate from Bhangar, Baddrudin’s assembly constituency. “Pirzada Naushad is Abbas’s brother and I call Abbas ‘Bhaijaan’, so I feel I must vote for him.”

When 35-year-old Abbas Siddiqui launched the ISF, in January, it instantly catapulted him to centre-stage in Bengal’s politics. A great grandson of Abu Bakr Siddiqui, this decision also brought the internal politics of Furfura Sharif into focus – a story of feuds over property and a clash of personal ambitions. Abbas has frequently mentioned how he once supported Mamata but now feels “betrayed”. His uncle, Toha Siddique, another important cleric at Furfura Sharif, a Mamata loyalist, had criticised his nephew for breaking away, accusing him of furthering his personal ambitions.

Abbas’s decision has once again opened up questions about how Muslims will vote in this election. In the face of the rising presence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it had been assumed that the vote would consolidate behind the Trinamool Congress (TMC), but questions began to be raised when it became clear that the religious appeal of Furfura Sharif would work in alliance with the CPI(M)-Left combine.

Naushad Siddiqui. Photo: Radhika Bordia

Bhangar, Naushad’s constituency which is polling today (Saturday), will be a definitive test of the impact of his party in this election. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC led comfortably from Bhangar, mainly because of the consolidation of Muslim votes against the BJP – but at that point Abbas Siddiqui was not a political factor.

Abbas’s entry into politics has forced him to play down some of his early regressive and controversial comments, such as the ones made against the TMC MP Nusrat Jahan. Criticising her for visiting temples, he threatened to tie her to a tree and thrash her if he ever came to power. In interviews given after entering politics he has said he has changed and “that Abbas was of a different ideology”.

Also read: Amphan Compensation Woes Echo Across Rural Howrah as RSS Makes its Presence Felt

He has since focused on reaching out to those who follow him as a pir and appealing to the youth who seem more enthused by his entry into politics. He was in talks with Asaduddin Owaisi early on, and Owaisi had even come and spend at night at Furfura Sharif, but Naushad refuses to detail the discussions, claiming the visit was purely ‘devotional’. Owaisi has since announced his decision to contest seven seats on his own.

Abbas had also sought an alliance with the TMC, before becoming part of the “Sanjukta Morcha”, with the Congress and Left parties.

Ghazipur village, Bhangar, South 24 Parganas. Photo: Radhika Bordia

Despite Furfura Sharif’s immense religious appeal, voters in the constituency are acutely aware of the logic of the vote. Baddruddin feels that a vote for the ISF would simply be about a personal connection but in the larger context it is important for Muslims to vote the TMC to ensure no “votes are cut”.

Baddruddin’s father-in-law,  Sahaji, has no such conflict. In his mid 60s, Sahaji is a respected figure in the village. The last six months have been tough for the family, with most of the earning members losing their jobs due to COVID-19 lockdowns. Then came the cyclone Amphan. South 24 Parganas was among the more severely impacted regions. Two of the homes in their family compound, built with thatched roofs, caved in.

While the TMC has been criticised for not responding adequately to the disaster, the criticism here is far more muted, with most expressing satisfaction with the relief work.

For Sahaji, the single most important issue in the election is that Muslims are facing an existential threat. “When it is in power, the BJP has shown what it can do to Muslims. That is the only thing we have to remember in these elections.” An avid reader of Bengali newspapers Anandabazar Patrika and Bartaman, Badruddin often leads the political discussions in his village, “I’ve told my family and my friends at the mosque that it is important to vote for Didi.”

Also read: The Making of Khwaabgaon: How an Idyllic Village in Bengal Became an Artist’s Canvas

Till the 2016 elections he had been voting for the CPI(M), and when he is asked whether  their alliance with the pirzada makes them a viable option again, he returns to his earlier point with greater emphasis, “This is not the time to try out options. I have seen people discuss what will happen to the Muslim vote in every election. Earlier, people would analyse whether the Muslim vote would go to the CPI (M) or the Congress, then it became CPI(M) or the TMC, now it is TMC or ISF. Let the outsiders discuss this, we know what we need to do.”

Sahaji’s house is situated near the main road, at the head of the village. His terrace overlooks a pond, a mosque and the lane that leads deeper into the rest of the village. “You see that new mosque? Some BJP person had come to Polerhaat (a market near the village) and was telling the Hindu families that under Mamata, Muslims are constructing mosques everywhere. Who will tell them about the temple in our village that has been recently refurbished?”

Newly refurbished temple, Ghaizpur village, Bhangar. Photo: Radhika Bordia

Impatient with the flow of the conversation, Sahaji’s younger son, Naharul interrupts to say he’s thinking of voting for Naushad Siddiqui. He thinks Naushad is young and can meet the aspirations of the youth. The same hardships his father had described push Naushad to seek other options. “I heard Bhaijaan speak recently and he said that Didi is constantly saying ‘Muslim, Muslim’ but doesn’t do anything substantial for Muslims. There is some truth in this,” says Naharul.

This is the ISF’s main criticism of the TMC – that Mamata’s Muslim politics has done more damage to the community. By making “appeasement” an issue, the ISF claims, the TMC has played into the hands of the BJP.

We had met Naushad Siddiqui at his residence in Furfura Sahib shortly after his candidature from Bhangar had been announced. Only 29 years old, he was thronged by his followers and finally spoke to us in an office room where he could have some privacy. Two of the books on the desk lie facing us, one a biography of Abu Bakr Siddiqui in Bengali and the other in English titled The Secular Vision of Kazi Nazrul Islam, as he made two well-practiced points with several elaborations.

One against the BJP was evident and consisted of a few lines – “the BJP is not an anti-Muslim party, it is an anti-national one”. In contrast, he stated, that the ISF is building a secular coalition. “We have Dalit and Adivasi candidates as our attempt is to work for the backward sections of society.”

He then returned to the main thrust of the ISF campaign, attacking the TMC. Ignoring the fact that his brother had sought to ally with the party before the elections, he said that Mamata’s Muslims politics was about an optics intended to exploit the Muslim vote. “Have you seen the Sachar Committee Report? Have you seen the abysmal state of Muslims in Bengal, it is the worst. Mamata has done nothing to change it.”

Also read: ‘Mind Game’: How a Perception War Is Dominating the Bengal Election Campaign

These points may have resonance with some of the younger voters but they run into problems with others who point out that Naushad’s party is in alliance with the very people who were in a position to do something for Muslims over decades.

“Why doesn’t Naushad ask his hammer and sickle friends why the Muslims have not got any development,” says Saribal Mullah from Ghazipur,  who sells a few groceries from a small one-room shop in and also gives the azaan from the local mosque. “A certain percentage of votes will go to Abbas’s party but those who will think and vote will stay with Mamata. She has also got roads built here and ensured we have some electricity.”

Sariibul Mullah, shopkeeper, Ghazipur, Bhangar. Photo: Radhika Bordia

Naseema and Safia, two women, both in their early 50s, arrive at the shop to buy a few groceries. They have complaints against the TMC but pledge their support to Mamata as they feel she’s familiar and a safer choice. “We have full respect for the men of Furfura Sharif but most of their followers seem to be boys my age, I’m not sure what they’ll achieve.”

Furfura Sharif. Photo: Radhika Bordia

Several reports on the ISF have suggested its appeal is greater among Muslim youth, restless for change and looking for strong Muslim leadership in an increasingly polarised and hostile world. Yet, even in Bhangar, where Abbas Siddiqui’s politics first took root and where his own brother is a candidate, one does not sense any overwhelming surge of support for the ISF.

“It’s never good to underestimate young people,” Saribal warns, adding, “Abbas’s party will definitely cut votes but at least they won’t go to the BJP.”

In Ghazipur’s small Hindu locality, there is little sign of any counter polarisation that the BJP may bank upon in such villages. Sita Das is quick to affirm her vote for Mamata, “There is talk about the BJP, that it is a Hindu party, and I am a Hindu but so far the BJP has not done any work here. Whether they will work in the future who knows so I prefer to vote for Mamata.”

Sita lists what she considers important work done for the village – a road, cleaner surroundings and cycles for the girls so that they can ride to the high school nearby. Returning to the topic of the BJP she says “aami phool ta jaani, log ta jaani na (I know the flower but I don’t know their people)”.

EC Issues Notice to Mamata Banerjee for Demanding Votes on ‘Communal Grounds’

The West Bengal chief minister had appeal to the minority community to not let their votes get divided.

New Delhi: The Election Commission on Wednesday issued a notice to West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee for “openly demanding votes on communal grounds”.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief has been directed to explain her remarks within 48 hours of receipt of the notice, failing which the commission would take a decision without further reference to her.

The notice is based on a complaint registered by a BJP delegation which was led by Union minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi.

The poll body has issued the notice in reference to Banerjee’s speech in Hooghly on April 3, ahead of the third phase of the West Bengal assembly election. She has been accused of appealing to Muslim voters.

The notice said the poll panel had received a complaint from a BJP delegation alleging that on April 3, Banerjee appealed to the Muslim voters not to let their votes get split among different political parties.

Speaking about the different welfare schemes that her government had initiated, Banerjee said that for the minority community, there was the Aikyashree scheme. She added, “I am requesting my minority brothers and sisters with folded hands don’t divide the minority votes after listening to the devil (shaitaan) person who had taken money from the BJP.”

“He passes many communal statements and initiates clashes between the Hindu and the Muslims. He is one of the apostles of the BJP, a comrade. The comrades of CPI-M and BJP are roaming around with the money given by the BJP to divide the minority votes. Please don’t allow them to do so. Keep in mind that if the BJP comes into the government then you will be in severe danger.

“I also will tell my Hindu brothers and sister not to make division amongst yourselves as Hindu and Muslim after listening to the BJP,” the notice quoted Banerjee as saying.

The EC said it found her speech violating the provisions of the Representation of the People Act and the model code of conduct.

The TMC hit out at the Election Commission over the notice, seeking to know what action the poll panel has taken on the complaints filed by its members against the BJP.

TMC spokesperson Mahua Moitra said the EC should “at least keep up the farce of impartiality”.

“Mamatadi issued notice by @ECISVEEP on @BJPs complaint, What about TMC complaints of 1. Video evidence of BJP candidate distributing cash 2. Cash coupons distributed to attend BJP mtng & vote,” she tweeted.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had recently brought up Banerjee’s speech, according to NDTV. Speaking at a rally on April 6, he said, “Didi (Banerjee), recently you said all Muslims should unite and not allow their votes to be divided… means you are convinced the Muslim vote bank has also gone out of your hands, the Muslims have also turned away from you.”

“Had we [the BJP] said the same thing that all Hindus should unite, everybody would have criticised us. The EC would have sent us notices. We would have been censured,” Modi added.

(With PTI inputs)

Watch: How Are Muslims Voting in the Kerala Elections?

Muslims account for more than 25% of the voters in Kerala. The Wire spoke to people in Mallapuram and Calicut to know about their issues.

In the Kerala assembly elections, Muslims account for more than 25% of the voters. Senior editor Arfa Khanam Sherwani spoke to people in Mallapuram, where the majority of Kerala‘s Muslim voters reside, to know about their issues.

One of the voters talked about how the state has no restrictions on praying in temples, mosques or churches irrespective of any religion, and how the CPI(M) treats people of all religions as equals.

In Calicut, a voter spoke about how some Muslims were ill-treated and put behind bars during the anti-CAA and anti-NRC protests while no stringent action was taken against a right-wing Hindu man who allegedly raped a minor at a madrassa. Another voter added that the Bharatiya Janata Party doesn’t stand a chance to rule in Kerala.