Owaisi and AIMIM’s ‘Expansion’ Has More To Do With Political Survival

The party has often been accused of aiding the BJP by scuttling the vote bases of other parties. As it plans to contest elections in Gujarat, Karnataka and Rajasthan, it faces the same allegation again.

A familiar criticism has once again been levelled at the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) as it plans to expand its electoral base by making its debut in assembly elections to Gujarat, Karnataka and Rajasthan: that the party is helping the BJP by fragmenting the vote bases of other parties.

In the recent bypoll to the Gopalganj assembly segment in Bihar, the BJP candidate managed to pip the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’s candidate by a margin smaller than 2,000 votes. Political observers have noted that AIMIM’s candidate Abdus Salam – a little-known leader – garnered more than 12,000 votes.

Gopalganj district has a Muslim population of 17.02% and the AIMIM – which draws its base almost exclusively from the community – had no chance to win the poll. When the party fielded its candidate, many political observers believe it was to take a share of votes from the RJD’s traditional voter base.

The Asaduddin Owaisi-led party’s decision to contest the Gopalganj bypoll was also in contrast to its strategy in the 2020 Bihar assembly polls. At the time, it contested 20 seats, half of which have either a majority Muslim population or a sizeable presence of the community. Also, unlike Abdus Salam, several of the candidates it put up then are seasoned politicians, some of whom had been elected as legislators from other parties.

In various assembly elections – excluding its home state of Telangana – that have been held since 2014, the AIMIM had fielded candidates in over 500 constituencies. In an overwhelming number of them, the party never had the chance to win because the Muslim community constituted only a small minority.

It won only two seats each in the 2014 and 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections and five in Bihar in 2020 – although four of them crossed over to the RJD in June this year. One AIMIM MLA won the Kishanganj by-poll in Bihar in October 2019.

So out of over 500 seats that the poll outside Telangana, the party could win only 10. In the rest, it lost disastrously and has been accused by parties like the Congress of cutting into its votes and aiding the BJP.

AIMIM leader Asaduddin Owaisi. Photo: Facebook/Asaduddinowaisi

Understanding AIMIM’s strategy

For understanding the political strategy of this Hyderabad-based party, one will have to go back to its history when it even extended an olive branch to the Congress in the post-Babri Masjid demolition years.

In 1993, the party faced a split when some influential leaders parted ways with then-party chief Salahuddin Owaisi (Asaduddin’s father), accusing him of having a “secret understanding” with then-prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao. The leaders formed the Majlis Bachao Tehreek, saying Rao’s inaction was just as responsible for the demolition of the Babri masjid as the karsewaks who pulled it down.

As it cosied up to the Congress, the Hyderabad-based party was facing an enormous challenge after the emergence of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), first under N.T. Rama Rao and later his son-in-law, Chandrababu Naidu. In the 1994 Andhra Pradesh assembly election, the TDP won 226 seats out of the 294 on offer and the Congress only 26. The AIMIM’s tally was just one, down from four in the previous election. Incidentally, the newly-formed Majlis Bachao Tahreek did better, winning two seats.

AIMIM’s long friendship with the same secular Congress continued till 2012, that is just two years before the advent of Narendra Modi and hewing out of Telangana from Andhra Pradesh. The arrest of Asaduddin’s younger brother Akbaruddin Owaisi in a hate speech case was one of the reasons behind relations fraying.

The party strongly opposed the creation of Telangana, but suddenly changed its stand. To avoid further embarrassment, it has since supported the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) – which was formed with the sole purpose of achieving statehood for the region.

Also Read: Why Does the Owaisi Factor Work Much More in Bihar Than in UP or Bengal?

Why doesn’t AIMIM expand within Telangana?

Although AIMIM has plans to expand across the country, it has surprised many that the party has not attempted to grow within Telangana. For several decades, it restricted itself to eight seats in the Old City area of Hyderabad.

There are many assembly constituencies in districts of Telangana like Nizamabad, Medak, Adilabad, Mehboobnagar and Karimnagar where Muslims form a substantial population. The community constitutes 15.35%, 11.29%, 10.07%, 8.24% and 6.48% respectively in these five districts. In urban centres of these districts, the proportion is even higher. In over one-fourth of the 119 assembly seats in Telangana, Muslims form enough population to make or mar the prospect of any party.

Yet the AIMIM does not field any candidate outside the eight seats in the Old City of Hyderabad. In the last assembly polls in 2018, the party supported the TRS in all 111 remaining seats. The situation is likely to be the same when the state votes again next year.

In contrast, it has put up candidates in assembly elections in West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. Now, it has decided to fight in 30 seats in Gujarat, almost all considered as strongholds of the Congress party. In many of these assembly segments, Muslims constitute a smaller percentage of the population than they do in Telangana. Muslims are 12.7% of the population in Telangana, which is higher than in Gujarat (9.7%) and Maharashtra (11.54%).

The AIMIM has announced that it would fight in 100 seats in the 2023 assembly election of Karnataka, where Muslims form 12.92% of the population. In 2018, it supported the candidates of Janata Dal (Secular).

Though Muslims constitute only 9% of the population in Rajasthan, Owaisi had in May last year announced that his party will “go all out” in the December 2023 election.

By Owaisi’s logic, the TRS is the biggest champion of the Muslim cause while parties like the RJD, Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party and others have “cheated” the Muslim community. That is why AIMIM has fought tooth and nail against them.

K. Chandrashekar Rao. Photo: Twitter/@TelanganaCMO

A pragmatic decision?

Perhaps the pragmatic reason behind Owaisi’s support for the TRS in Telangana is to prevent a surge in the BJP’s popularity in the state. The saffron party won four out of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in Telangana in 2019 and has positioned itself as the principal challenge to chief minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao.

In the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation election held in December  2020, the BJP did exceedingly well to cut the strength of TRS from 99 last time to 56. The saffron party’s figure jumped from four to 48. The AIMIM managed to retain its tally of 44 seats.

In the past too, the AIMIM – as a very small party whose pinnacle was to have two MPs and 10 MLAs –  has had to make pragmatic decisions to shift political allegiances for its survival. It had a tacit understanding with parties in power, whether in states or at the Centre.

In March 2022, its Aurangabad MP Imitiaz Jaleel offered to support the Shiv Sena-Congress-NCP government in Maharashtra – which was turned down.

In Bihar too, its state unit chief, Akhtar-ul-Iman, its lone MLA, misses no opportunity to claim that the AIMIM supports the Grand Alliance government led by Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav – even though the parties do not need his support.

So if the AIMIM is really facilitating the BJP’s victories in many states, as critics and opponents allege, such moves can be seen as part of its long-term political investment. The party wants to send the right signals to the saffron brigade and may cash in on it in the future.

It is natural for Owaisi to come down heavily on the so-called “secular parties” because it is only from these parties that he can expect to get votes and the AIMIM cannot dream of wooing any BJP voters. An argument can be made, however, that the saffron party’s Hindu consolidation agenda drives the reverse consolidation of Muslims towards the AIMIM.

It is another thing that AIMIM has openly allied with the same secular parties in the past and most of its legislators outside Hyderabad had started their political careers in parties like the Congress and the RJD. During the 2019 assembly poll in Jharkhand, the state unit president was the son of a very influential Congress minister of the past. Yet, during the campaign, he was heard hurling all sorts of abuses at the “secular parties”.

Soroor Ahmed is a Patna-based freelance journalist.

A Glimpse of What Was Happening in Hyderabad in September 1948

A letter Padmaja Naidu wrote to her mother Sarojini Naidu describes the lead-up to the military’s intervention to merge the largest princely state with India and its aftermath.

New Delhi: September 17, 1948, is a historic day in India’s journey as an independent nation. On this day, the largest princely state, Hyderabad, was integrated with the Union of India. This year marks the beginning of the 75th year of the merger of Hyderabad which till September 1948 was under the rule of the Asaf Jahi dynasty or the Nizams. The integration was achieved through a military operation – referred to as police action under the code name Operation Polo. It was initiated on September 13 and ended with a ceasefire announced by Mir Osman Ali Khan, the seventh and the last Nizam of Hyderabad, on September 17. It was a painful period for the people of Hyderabad. The state was plunged into chaos for four days after the ceasefire, till a Military Administration was installed. 

Several available accounts of the Police Action have focused on political, military and diplomatic developments surrounding this event. Padmaja Naidu, daughter of Sarojini Naidu, was a leading figure in the political and social circles of Hyderabad in the 1940s. She was present in the city during the Police Action and its aftermath, and her account focuses on the human tragedy that unfolded in the run-up to the Police Action and soon after it. Padmaja wrote to Sarojini (then governor of United Provinces) on October 4, 1948 – the first day after the military intervention when letters and telegrams could be sent out from Hyderabad. It provides a glimpse of what was happening in Hyderabad in that fateful month.

In the months preceding the Police Action, the Union government had imposed an economic blockade on Hyderabad. The Police Action exacerbated shortages of all kinds. “… blackouts, no petrol, no papers, no post, no telegraph, very little food of any kind at all and no meat for several days,” Padmaja wrote. She described the scene at the Naidu bungalow, Golden Threshold, located on Station Road like this:

“Our house is just like the Railway station at train time all day long, with all manner of people – ranging from high officials to frightened villagers and workers of all kinds coming and going the whole time, consultations being held in every room, and usually the compound overflowing with delegations and refugees’ families from every district in the state.” 

Golden Threshold. Photo: Dinesh C. Sharma

When Padmaja reached Hyderabad on September 9, she found that ‘everybody who could possibly afford it was planning to run away’ as Hyderabad had become ‘a world poisoned with fear.’ About the paramilitary force group Razakars, she wrote, “everyday at least once, often three or four times, I heard  him [Razakar leader Kasim Rizvi] speak over the Radio – there was no way of escaping it because loudspeakers were fixed at every few yards and from early morning until midnight the foulest, vilest propaganda consisting of the most incredible lies about the Indian Union and the most violently impassioned speeches appeal to the XXXX (word censored in the declassified letter) to shed their blood for Independent Hyderabad, used to be poured out in an unending stream.” As a logical sequel to this, she said she saw ‘lorry loads of little boys, ranging in age from ten to fifteen, being sent out to the front to fight the Indian Army.’ 

Soon after the ceasefire and the resignation of Prime Minister Laik Ali on September 17, rioting broke out in Secunderabad. Padmaja, along with her brother Jayasurya Naidu, was in the area when she heard the Nizam and K.M. Munshi, India’s Agent-General in Hyderabad, broadcast their messages on Deccan Radio.

“We had to take on the responsibility for dealing with the huge unruly mobs sometimes numbering ten thousand, who were killing and looting and burning houses and attacking the police… The Police and Military were afraid to touch the crowds because the Hindus were simply drunk with a sense of power and talked about the Hindu Raj that was coming,” Padmaja wrote pointing out that the situation could be brought under control only after four days when the Indian Army took over the administration. 

The first page of English newspaper Deccan Chronicle on the morning of September 18, 1948. Photo: Author provided

Within a week, Padmaja organised about 150 all-religion peace committees and helped set up camps to house refugees pouring in from districts. Some of these committees had ‘great help from ex-members of the Ittehadul Musalmin in locating their armouries and dumps of hidden arms, in rounding up Razakars etc.’ However, this effort to restore peace was not supported by any politicians including those from Hyderabad State Congress, which along with ‘all the political Hindus ranging from the Arya Samaj-cum -RSS type feel that the military government for Hyderabad was a great insult’ to the state, Padmaja wrote to her mother. “They claim publicly that it is the State Congress and not the Indian army that has liberated Hyderabad and that only the State Congress has a right to rule Hyderabad.”

While Padmaja praised the role of the Indian Army in restoring order in Hyderabad, the military government kept a close eye on her activities. The letter she wrote to Sarojini Naidu was intercepted and a copy was sent to the Ministry of States in Delhi, as per archival records of the ministry.

Dinesh C. Sharma author is working on a book on the making of modern Hyderabad. He tweets as @dineshcsharma.