Book Review: A Warning for India About China’s Unprecedented Military Modernisation

Pravin Sawhney’s ‘The Last War: How AI Will Shape India’s Final Showdown With China’ doubles up as an encyclopedia of South Asia’s contemporary military, strategic and technical dynamics.

Pravin Sawhney’s The Last War: How AI Will Shape India’s Final Showdown With China is the most detailed and up-to-date work about South Asia’s military, technological and strategic dynamics. The author compellingly argues that India is far behind China as a result of mistakenly prioritising Pakistan as its top security threat. By disproportionately focusing on the western vector of its national security interests, including countering related unconventional threats, Delhi is unprepared to adequately address newfound challenges along the northern one that is much more conventional in nature.

The summer 2020 clashes over the Galwan river valley should have served as a belated wake-up call, but they failed to be interpreted properly, according to Sawhney, who provides evidence proving that decision-makers continue to misperceive everything connected to China. He’s particularly concerned that his homeland might not be able to catch up with the cutting-edge challenges posed by China’s unprecedented military modernisation, which comprises the bulk of his book.

Pravin Sawhney
The Last War: How AI Will Shape India’s Final Showdown With China
Aleph Book Company (August 2022)

It’s here where the author showcases his unparalleled expertise in military, technological and strategic dynamics. The Last War dramatically opens with the scenario of a Chinese sneak attack on India that includes cyberattacks, robot invasions, and swarms of miniature assassination drones, among other aspects.

This captivates the reader’s imagination since they’re immediately intrigued to learn more about how Sawhney arrived at this particular vision of the future. He then proceeds to describe these two Great Powers’ polar opposite security paradigms, military modernisation programmes, and points of friction.

Plenty of insight is also shared about Pakistan and the US, which helps complete the picture. Everything is meticulously documented, which is especially useful for those intrepid readers who want to learn more about the various details that Sawhney shared in his magnum opus. Most will probably find themselves doing so on at least several occasions since they’re bound to come across something new, exciting, and arguably even ominous in the text. That’s the best part of The Last War too, since it also doubles as an encyclopedia of South Asia’s contemporary military, strategic and technical dynamics, which thus makes it a unique contribution to the larger literature on these subjects. Upon learning how far India is behind China, it becomes clear to the reader that the former is at risk of sleepwalking into a disaster of epic proportions unless it urgently changes course to correct the trajectory that it’s on. Fundamental to the author’s scenario forecast is his concern that Delhi is too distracted by Pakistan to appreciate the full-spectrum paradigm-changing challenges posed by China.

Furthermore, he argues that its armed forces don’t coordinate at the level required to effectively address this, nor does its political leadership have a proper understanding of technological trends. Sawhney is also suspicious of the US’s influence over India, which he very strongly suggests is aimed at exploiting it as a proxy against China, one that Washington will inevitably hang out to dry once the going gets tough for Delhi in the event of a serious conflict with Beijing. It’s this patriotic motivation that drove him to elaborate on everything as extensively as he did, which includes very sharp critiques of his country’s institutions. Readers should always remember this so as not to be put off by some of what he wrote, which might be politically inconvenient for some but is fully cited and thus credible.

Read an Excerpt from Pravin Sawhney’s Book: How Will a India-China War Pan Out?

Anyone can claim that India is far behind China, distracted itself too much with Pakistan, and should thus consider a mutually beneficial pragmatic solution to the long-running Kashmir dispute in order to free up its focus and resources so as to adequately address the northern vector of its security instead. No one up until now, however, has argued this in detail with copious sources assembled over the years and informed by personal experiences connected to their interactions with leading Chinese, Indian and Pakistani figures. It’s this factual foundation of The Last War that sets it apart from everything else. The insight obtained from reading Sawhney’s book will stay with the reader for a long time after they learn how far ahead China is in military, strategic, and especially technological trends compared to India.

The takeaway is that diplomacy must take precedence over sabre-rattling in order to manage associated challenges across the Himalayas while Delhi races to catch up to Beijing throughout the 2020s. India’s recent assertion of strategic autonomy in the Ukrainian conflict vis-à-vis the US inspires confidence that it’s finally wised up to its partner’s game and thus won’t let itself be exploited as a proxy against China.

Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst.

Next Round of Military Talks Between India and China Likely to Be Held on Friday

The border standoff between the Indian and Chinese militaries erupted on May 5 last following a violent clash in the Pangong lake areas and both sides gradually enhanced their deployment by rushing in tens of thousands of soldiers as well as heavy weaponry.

New Delhi: India and China are likely to hold the next round of corps commander level talks on Friday and they are expected to focus on disengagement of troops in remaining friction points in eastern Ladakh, people familiar with the development said.

They said India will insist on early disengagement of troops in Gogra and Hot Springs besides pressing for resolution of pending issues in Depsang plains.

The people said the two sides had an exchange of views on holding the 11th round of military talks on Friday.

The border standoff between the Indian and Chinese militaries erupted on May 5 last following a violent clash in the Pangong lake areas and both sides gradually enhanced their deployment by rushing in tens of thousands of soldiers as well as heavy weaponry.

As a result of a series of military and diplomatic talks, the two sides completed withdrawal of troops and weapons from the North and South banks of Pangong lake in February in line with an agreement on disengagement.

In the subsequent military talks on February 20, India insisted on the resolution of outstanding issues including in Depsang, Hot Springs and Gogra.

India has been insisting that peace and tranquility along the border is essential for overall ties between the two countries.

Last week, India hoped that China will work with it to ensure disengagement of troops in the remaining areas of eastern Ladakh at the earliest. It said de-escalation of tension alone will lead to restoration of peace and tranquility in border areas and provide conditions for the progress of bilateral ties.

In late March, Army chief General M.M. Naravane said that the threat to India has only “abated” following the disengagement in Pangong lake areas, but it has not gone away altogether.

(PTI)

China Says ‘Agreement’ Reached With India, ‘Two Sides’ Acting to ‘Ameliorate’ Situation

This was the first official statement from either country that there had been some de-escalation on the ground in eastern Ladakh following talks between the two sides, though no details have been provided.

New Delhi: After Indian defence officials said Chinese troops were observed to have “thinned” out in at least four stand-off points, China on Wednesday said that “actions” were being taken by both sides in line with an “agreement” reached with India to “ameliorate the border situation”.

This was the first official statement from either country that there had been some de-escalation on the ground in eastern Ladakh following talks between the two sides. However, the Chinese side did not provide any detail on the “actions” it said the “two sides” had taken at the border.

Military sources had earlier stated that the density of Chinese troops at Galwan and Hot Springs had come down from Monday, which was reciprocated by India but that there had been no change in status at Pangong Tso, where Chinese troops are on India’s side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). There had, however, been no official statement from India on these developments.

“Through diplomatic and military channels, China and India have recently had effective communication and reached agreement on properly handling the situation in the west section of the China-India boundary. At present, the two sides are taking actions in line with the agreement to ameliorate the border situation,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying in Beijing at the regular media briefing in response to a question from AFP.

If the Chinese readout is accurate, this suggests Indian forces may also be pulling back at the disputed points, though India has always maintained that its troops have never crossed the Indian side of the LAC. Indeed, during Manmohan Singh’s tenure as prime minister, when a boundary region standoff was defused in this way, BJP leaders – including Rajnath Singh, who is now defence minister – had criticised the Congress-led government for withdrawing Indian soldiers from Indian territory.

On Wednesday, Indian and Chinese commanders held a major general-level dialogue which was a follow-up to the talks held on June 6.

“The talks were productive as both sides exchanged views in a positive atmosphere. Both the armies are committed to end the row through talks,” a senior military official was quoted by PTI as saying.

Also Read: Here’s Why All’s Not Well for India on the Ladakh Front

After Saturday’s talks, India’s readout had not given any indication of any “agreement” on gradual dis-engagement. India had reiterated that the two sides “agreed” on the need to resolve the situation peacefully in line with various bilateral agreements and the guidance of the leadership to maintain peace and tranquillity on the India-China border regions.

This was echoed by the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson at her briefing on Monday. “Both sides agree to implement the important consensus of the two leaders, avoid escalation of differences into disputes, work together to uphold peace and tranquillity in the border area, and create favourable atmosphere for the sound and stable development of bilateral relations,” said Hua.

Several other rounds of talks among the militaries are expected to take place in the coming days at the border.

However, there are no signs that China is willing to retract its troops from the area until Finger 4 in Pangong Tso, which is well within the territory claimed by India. It was at Pangong Tso that Indian and Chinese soldiers had come to blows in early May, which was one of the early markers of the start of the stand-off between the two armies.

Map of the road to Daulat Beg Oldi. Photo: Wikimedia

India has sought a restoration of the status quo ante before the first detection of Chinese troops at Galwan, with the vacation of soldiers from the finger region in Pangong Tso being a top priority.

Galwan is considered strategically significant as the valley into which Chinese soldiers have reportedly entered and erected structures flanks the road to Daulat beg Oldi, the last point on the Indian side before the Karakoram Pass, which marks the border with China.