In 2014, I saw a young man walking with the help of crutches, almost dragging himself up the stairs, into a polling station which had no ramp for people with disabilities.
While someone with a physical disability casting their vote was no novelty, what was noteworthy was that the man had lost his leg in a firing during a protest in the 2010 summer agitation.
Losing a limb in an ‘anti-India’ agitation and casting his vote in an election process as a citizen of India a few years later seemed like a stark paradox. He said the sentiments for azadi (freedom) differed from the need to have a local representative of their choice, who would solve the problems of “bijli, sadak and paani (electricity, roads and water)“. “The two,” he insisted, “need not be mixed”.
That village in South Kashmir saw many deaths during the 2010 agitation but still recorded a good percentage of voters even amid calls for boycott by separatist organisations. The same area in South Kashmir has once again recorded a high turnover of voters.
People are voting for the redressal of their everyday problems, lack of infrastructure, bad roads, erratic electric supply as well as unprecedented unemployment and drug use.
However, there is more to the elections than simply choosing local representatives to address the region’s development needs. People are participating with the hope of electing representatives who are accessible, as Raj Bhavan is often seen as a fortress out of reach for the common people.
The vote for the first time in 30 years is also an assertion of Kashmir’s identity and its voice which was snuffed in 2019. The state assembly is being seen as a platform where Kashmir’s voice can be heard.
After decades, the voting in Kashmir is also a political statement. It is a message to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government at the Centre that the events of August 5, 2019, and everything that followed, was not acceptable. A large section of the people are participating in the election process primarily to vote against the BJP and its policies on Kashmir. For some, the election process is seen by Kashmiris as a legal means of registering their protest.
The historic voter turnout of 58.46% in Kashmir during the Lok Sabha elections was seen as the first step in this direction, and the current assembly elections seem to have further strengthened this sentiment.
On Wednesday, nearly 59% of 2.3 million voters in 24 of its 90 constituencies cast their franchise in the first phase of the polls. For the first time in the last three decades, elections are being held without any calls of boycott.
While the mountainous Pir Panjal districts like Kishtiwar and Doda are still leading the charts, the poll percentage has improved considerably in South Kashmir with many areas recording the highest percentage in the last seven elections, which include four Lok Sabha elections. South Kashmir was also the centre of the 2016 protests following the killing of local militant leader Burhan Wani.
While most people in the valley have reconciled that restoration of the special status might not be possible, more so after the Supreme Court turned down a plea on the matter, some voters insist that keeping the BJP from forming the government in the Union Territory can be an act of ‘sweet revenge’.
Interestingly, even political parties seeking votes in Kashmir are also rallying around the same anti-BJP sentiment. Most political parties have almost identical manifestoes, where issues like restoration of statehood, the impact of abrogation of Article 370, stronger domicile laws and failure to deliver on the development front have been highlighted.
Even during rallies, most political parties were seen attacking each other over previous parleys with the BJP or their supposed post-verdict alliance with the right-wing party.
While BJP has a strong base in the Hindu-dominated Jammu, the party’s candidates are unlikely to win in the valley. Considering the anger against the Centre, most parties are using ‘the BJP proxy’ cards against each other. There seems to be a race to identify as BJP’s biggest opponent.
The situation has also shifted in Jammu, where a significant portion of the population is raising voices of protest against the abrogation. People allege an influx of individuals from neighbouring states into the business sector. Additionally, ending the pre-independence practice of the Darbar move – which involved the biannual relocation of the state secretariat and offices between the two capitals of Jammu and Srinagar – has not been viewed positively by Jammu residents.
The erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir was downgraded to a Union Territory in August 2019. The Union government had also unilaterally revoked the state’s special status, guaranteed by the constitution, when Kashmir acceded to India post-independence.
While the move found support in Jammu, it was vehemently opposed in the Kashmir region. This was followed by months of curfew, clampdown, mass detentions as well as change of land and domicile laws.
The election is significant as it is the first to be held in the Union Territory since the events of 2019 and also the first in a decade.
The poll percentage is expected to improve even in other constituencies where voters have traditionally heeded boycott calls.
What is also interesting is even parties who used to spearhead these boycott calls are in the election fray. The banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), which was seen as an ideological supporter of the separatist movement in Kashmir, has fielded independent candidates in this election. This is being seen as an attempt to get its ban revoked.
The organisation has been banned since 2019 when the government said it was the brain behind the creation of separatist groups like the Hurriyat Conference and even militant outfits like Hizbul Mujahideen. This, however, is not the first time Jamaat has entered the election fray. Late separatist leader and ideologue Syed Ali Shah Geelani had contested elections before the rise of militancy in the erstwhile state.
Jamaat-backed candidates have also entered into a last-minute alliance with Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) formed by Baramulla MP Engineer Rashid.
Rashid, who defeated National Conference (NC) leader Omar Abdullah in the Lok Sabha elections, is fighting allegations of being a ‘BJP’s proxy’, in this election. Rashid and his Jamaat allies are becoming major challengers to old parties like the NC and People’s Democratic Party (PDP). However, the allegation seemed to have dented Rashid’s rising popularity and might not work in the favour of his allies.
The contest in the three-phase election seems to be largely between BJP and the NC-Congress alliance.
PDP, on the other hand, seems to be struggling to justify its stand during the 2016 agitation and its alliance with BJP, which according to many paved the way for abrogation of Article 370.
The secular alliance of the NC-Congress, if not the people’s first choice, seems to have become an option, owing to Omar Abdullah’s consistent anti-BJP stand and the rising popularity of Rahul Gandhi post Bharat Jodo Yatra. Better performance of the Congress in Jammu compared to previous elections and consolidation in the Kashmir region can increase the chances of a government with a ‘secular front’.
However, Rashid’s alliance and other local parties like Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference, PDP’s breakaway Apni Party, and former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party can change the post-result arithmetic.
Stitching an alliance with these Kashmir-based parties and repeating their previous performance in Jammu might just help BJP realise the ‘promised dream of Jammu (read Hindu) CM’ for the contentious region.
Toufiq Rashid is a journalist who has covered the Kashmir conflict, health and wellbeing for top Indian newspapers for nearly two decades. She now works at @Pixstory.