New Delhi: Bhutan will go to elections on Thursday for the fourth time after the erstwhile Himalayan kingdom transitioned to democracy, featuring the largest-ever field of five political parties, with economic issues taking centre stage.
Bhutan is the youngest democracy in South Asia, having transitioned from a monarchy to a parliamentary system in 2008. It has gone through three general elections, each of them having seen the incumbent defeated and a new party given the chance to helm the government.
On November 30, 496,836 voters are eligible to cast their votes to elect their candidates to the 47 seats of the fourth parliament. The number of registered voters has increased by around 56% since the first parliamentary elections, fifteen years ago. The voters would be going to the polls after a black-out period of 48 hours following the end of campaigning.
Bhutan’s constitution proscribes a two-tier system of National Assembly election. While all registered parties can take part in the primary round on Thursday, the two parties with the highest number of votes will go to the final run-off on January 9.
Who are the main parties?
From just two political parties in 2008, the number of political parties in this election has increased to five.
The two oldest are Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which won the first and second parliamentary elections respectively. The current ruling party is the Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT), which caused an upset in 2018 by ensuring that the then-incumbent PDP did not even go into the final round of the 2018 elections. It won 30 out of the 47 seats.
The two youngest are the Druk Thuendrel Tshogpa (DTT) and the Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP), both of which have had to conduct innovative campaigns and branding to capture eyeballs.
What are the main issues in this election?
The Bhutanese elections have had a distinctly calmer flavour which is unlike the frenzied electoral atmosphere of other South Asian polls.
Before the end of the official campaign period, the Office of the Media Arbitrator (OMA) had claimed that it had only identified 13 posts of political parties that potentially discredited their rivals, which was a decrease compared to previous elections. However, a day before polls, four political parties complained to the OMA that the PDP president, former prime minister Tshering Tobgay had circulated a video claiming that the Bhutanese king wanted his party to return to power.
For an outsider, there is not much difference ideologically between the political parties. But, from the manifestos and the televised party debates, it was clear that the economy was at the top of the agenda.
“All parties highlighted reviving peljore (economy), pronounced as Panjo, making it the most talked about during the campaign period, including providing content for social media memes,” noted the Bhutanese paper Kuensel’s editorial on Tuesday.
Incumbent Bhutan Prime Minister Lotay Tshering. Photo: Facebook
What is the state of the economy as Bhutan goes to the polls?
Less than two years into the DNT government, the world went into lockdown. Bhutan had some of the strictest COVID-19 restrictions, completely shutting down its borders to foreigners. It also loosened entry restrictions rather late compared to the rest of the world, opening its tourist industry after a hiatus of more than two years in September 2022.
Despite the opening of borders, Bhutan did not reap the anticipated benefits due to a substantial increase in the tourism levy at the same time. The levy has been partially relaxed recently this year.
The World Bank estimated that Bhutan’s economy would grow by 4% this year, which is lower than the 4.6% logged in 2022-23. However, this estimate is still higher than the previous forecast of 3.1% for the current financial year. The reason given for the upward revision is “in part due to a major salary increase for government workers”, the WB said.
Overall, Bhutan is anticipated to lag behind other small states, with private investment remaining subdued, credit supply constrained due to moratorium on new housing loans and high non-performing loans in the banking sector, according to the World Bank.
The Bhutanese government announced a hike of 55-74% in government salaries in June. This salary boost came against a backdrop of a high rate of attrition among Bhutanese civil servants which has seen a sharp increase in the past two years, with many migrating to foreign shores due to the rising cost of living. As per the Royal Civil Service Commission (RCSC), the attrition rate in 2021-22 was 4.65%, which jumped to 16% in 2022-23.
In general, Bhutanese have migrated in large numbers, especially to Australia, with job generation scarce in non-hydropower sectors and youth unemployment recorded as high as 29% in 2022.
Another worrisome economic indicator is the external debt service ratio which has increased from 5.8% in 2019-20 to 15.1% in 2022-23. More than half of the debt servicing this year will be for the Mangdechhu power plant in Indian rupees.
As per the latest figures of Bhutan’s central bank Royal Monetary Authority, Bhutan’s external reserves reached a low of $467.05 million in September this year, which is near the minimum threshold of $464 million determined by the government to meet the cost of one year’s worth of essential imports.
What are the key indicators for Bhutan elections?
In the 2018 National Assembly election, postal ballots had been decisive in bringing the DNT to power. Despite the ruling PDP securing more votes through electronic voting machines at polling booths, it came in third during the primary round and could not advance to the final run-off. The pivotal factor was the DNT’s advantage in postal ballots, typically cast by civil servants, employees of state enterprises, students, and others who couldn’t vote in their hometowns. More than 36% of the votes cast in the primary and final round of the 2018 polls were through postal ballots. In a few constituencies during those elections, postal ballots surpassed electronic voting machine (EVM) votes.
However, things are being done differently this time. Unlike 2018, there are no facilitation booths available to assist voters who may find the process complex in casting their postal ballots. Additionally, the previous practice of generously distributing postal ballots is now limited exclusively to categories specified in the 2018 law, which are diplomats and officials posted abroad, armed forces, civil servants and students. It leaves out Bhutanese nationals residing in foreign countries, and employees in public enterprises and the private sector.
Concerns have been raised about the potential impact of restrictions on postal ballots on voter turnout in this election compared to previous ones. The highest-ever voter turnout was 79.4% in the 2008 election. It was followed by 71.46% in the final round of the 2018 elections.
There has always been a strong regional polarisation in votes for parties. DPT was known for its strong base in the eastern region, while PDP and DNT had both scored well in the southern and western constituencies in 2018. In the last round of the 2018 polls, PDP’s voters had supported the DNT over its rival DPT, which almost divided the kingdom between the two parties down the middle.
With the two more parties in the fray, there is going to be fragmentation of votes, which may lead to unpredictable results.
Is India a factor in the elections at all?
India is Bhutan’s largest source for development assistance and also the largest trade partner. Bhutan shares borders with only two countries, but it has no official diplomatic relations with China. Therefore, India looms large in Bhutan.
It is often said that India had been a factor in the 2013 elections, as the polls came just after New Delhi ended and then restored the subsidy for cooking gas. It was perceived as a sign of India’s unhappiness with the DPT government, which had made overtures towards China.
The Doklam stand-off took place a year before the 2018 elections, but it did not cast any shadow over the polls with voters focused on economic issues.
In the last year, there has been an acceleration in the border talks between Bhutan and China, after both sides signed an agreement on a “three-step roadmap” to resolve the border.
Despite this, India has not shown public concern and has not taken any actions indicating dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Lotay Tshering’s efforts to resolve the border issue with China.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi Bhutan’s foreign minister Tandi Dorji in Beijing on October 23, 2023. Photo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China
Incidentally, among the parties, only the DPT’s manifesto has a specific reference to India in terms of foreign policy. “Throughout all our foreign policy initiatives, our Party will prioritize strengthening our connections with the People and Government of India and maintaining friendly relations with our neighbouring nations,” promised the party.
All of them have proposals for increasing cooperation with India in the hydropower sector and facilitating trade ties, but with also an eye on diversification. The ruling DNT party noted that “our partnership with India will continue to be the cornerstone of our hydropower and energy sector”. “In addition, the projects to build small hydropower projects on our own will be further expanded,” it said.
The newly established DTT party proposed that while “India is our biggest development partner, we also need to explore other partners to meet the volume of investments that we are looking at”. The BTP advocated for the removal of the Sustainable Development Fee for tourists from India at border towns.
Note: A correction was made regarding the regional bases of DPT, PDP and DNT to this article after it was published.