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Bhutan National Elections: Voters Go to Polls With More Choice and Economy on Their Minds

Bhutan is the youngest democracy in South Asia, having transitioned from a monarchy to a parliamentary system in 2008. On Thursday, 496,836 voters are eligible to cast their votes to elect candidates to the 47 seats of the fourth parliament.

New Delhi: Bhutan will go to elections on Thursday for the fourth time after the erstwhile Himalayan kingdom transitioned to democracy, featuring the largest-ever field of five political parties, with economic issues taking centre stage.

Bhutan is the youngest democracy in South Asia, having transitioned from a monarchy to a parliamentary system in 2008. It has gone through three general elections, each of them having seen the incumbent defeated and a new party given the chance to helm the government.

On November 30, 496,836 voters are eligible to cast their votes to elect their candidates to the 47 seats of the fourth parliament. The number of registered voters has increased by around 56% since the first parliamentary elections, fifteen years ago. The voters would be going to the polls after a black-out period of 48 hours following the end of campaigning.

Bhutan’s constitution proscribes a two-tier system of National Assembly election. While all registered parties can take part in the primary round on Thursday, the two parties with the highest number of votes will go to the final run-off on January 9.

Who are the main parties?

From just two political parties in 2008, the number of political parties in this election has increased to five.

The two oldest are Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), which won the first and second parliamentary elections respectively. The current ruling party is the Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT), which caused an upset in 2018 by ensuring that the then-incumbent PDP did not even go into the final round of the 2018 elections. It won 30 out of the 47 seats.

The two youngest are the Druk Thuendrel Tshogpa (DTT) and the Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP), both of which have had to conduct innovative campaigns and branding to capture eyeballs.

What are the main issues in this election?

The Bhutanese elections have had a distinctly calmer flavour which is unlike the frenzied electoral atmosphere of other South Asian polls.

Before the end of the official campaign period, the Office of the Media Arbitrator (OMA) had claimed that it had only identified 13 posts of political parties that potentially discredited their rivals, which was a decrease compared to previous elections. However, a day before polls, four political parties complained to the OMA that the PDP president, former prime minister Tshering Tobgay had circulated a video claiming that the Bhutanese king wanted his party to return to power.

For an outsider, there is not much difference ideologically between the political parties. But, from the manifestos and the televised party debates, it was clear that the economy was at the top of the agenda.

“All parties highlighted reviving peljore (economy), pronounced as Panjo, making it the most talked about during the campaign period, including providing content for social media memes,” noted the Bhutanese paper Kuensel’s editorial on Tuesday.

Incumbent Bhutan Prime Minister Lotay Tshering. Photo: Facebook

What is the state of the economy as Bhutan goes to the polls?

Less than two years into the DNT government, the world went into lockdown. Bhutan had some of the strictest COVID-19 restrictions, completely shutting down its borders to foreigners. It also loosened entry restrictions rather late compared to the rest of the world, opening its tourist industry after a hiatus of more than two years in September 2022.

Despite the opening of borders, Bhutan did not reap the anticipated benefits due to a substantial increase in the tourism levy at the same time. The levy has been partially relaxed recently this year.

The World Bank estimated that Bhutan’s economy would grow by 4% this year, which is lower than the 4.6% logged in 2022-23. However, this estimate is still higher than the previous forecast of 3.1% for the current financial year. The reason given for the upward revision is “in part due to a major salary increase for government workers”, the WB said.

Overall, Bhutan is anticipated to lag behind other small states, with private investment remaining subdued, credit supply constrained due to moratorium on new housing loans and high non-performing loans in the banking sector, according to the World Bank.

The Bhutanese government announced a hike of 55-74% in government salaries in June. This salary boost came against a backdrop of a high rate of attrition among Bhutanese civil servants which has seen a sharp increase in the past two years, with many migrating to foreign shores due to the rising cost of living. As per the Royal Civil Service Commission (RCSC), the attrition rate in 2021-22 was 4.65%, which jumped to 16% in 2022-23.

In general, Bhutanese have migrated in large numbers, especially to Australia, with job generation scarce in non-hydropower sectors and youth unemployment recorded as high as 29% in 2022.

Another worrisome economic indicator is the external debt service ratio which has increased from 5.8% in 2019-20 to 15.1% in 2022-23. More than half of the debt servicing this year will be for the Mangdechhu power plant in Indian rupees.

As per the latest figures of Bhutan’s central bank Royal Monetary Authority, Bhutan’s external reserves reached a low of $467.05 million in September this year, which is near the minimum threshold of $464 million determined by the government to meet the cost of one year’s worth of essential imports.

What are the key indicators for Bhutan elections?

In the 2018 National Assembly election, postal ballots had been decisive in bringing the DNT to power. Despite the ruling PDP securing more votes through electronic voting machines at polling booths, it came in third during the primary round and could not advance to the final run-off. The pivotal factor was the DNT’s advantage in postal ballots, typically cast by civil servants, employees of state enterprises, students, and others who couldn’t vote in their hometowns. More than 36% of the votes cast in the primary and final round of the 2018 polls were through postal ballots. In a few constituencies during those elections, postal ballots surpassed electronic voting machine (EVM) votes.

However, things are being done differently this time. Unlike 2018, there are no facilitation booths available to assist voters who may find the process complex in casting their postal ballots. Additionally, the previous practice of generously distributing postal ballots is now limited exclusively to categories specified in the 2018 law, which are diplomats and officials posted abroad, armed forces, civil servants and students. It leaves out Bhutanese nationals residing in foreign countries, and employees in public enterprises and the private sector.

Concerns have been raised about the potential impact of restrictions on postal ballots on voter turnout in this election compared to previous ones. The highest-ever voter turnout was 79.4% in the 2008 election. It was followed by 71.46% in the final round of the 2018 elections.

There has always been a strong regional polarisation in votes for parties. DPT was known for its strong base in the eastern region, while PDP and DNT had both scored well in the southern and western constituencies in 2018. In the last round of the 2018 polls, PDP’s voters had supported the DNT over its rival DPT, which almost divided the kingdom between the two parties down the middle.

With the two more parties in the fray, there is going to be fragmentation of votes, which may lead to unpredictable results.

Is India a factor in the elections at all?

India is Bhutan’s largest source for development assistance and also the largest trade partner. Bhutan shares borders with only two countries, but it has no official diplomatic relations with China. Therefore, India looms large in Bhutan.

It is often said that India had been a factor in the 2013 elections, as the polls came just after New Delhi ended and then restored the subsidy for cooking gas. It was perceived as a sign of India’s unhappiness with the DPT government, which had made overtures towards China.

The Doklam stand-off took place a year before the 2018 elections, but it did not cast any shadow over the polls with voters focused on economic issues.

In the last year, there has been an acceleration in the border talks between Bhutan and China, after both sides signed an agreement on a “three-step roadmap” to resolve the border.

Despite this, India has not shown public concern and has not taken any actions indicating dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Lotay Tshering’s efforts to resolve the border issue with China.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi Bhutan’s foreign minister Tandi Dorji in Beijing on October 23, 2023. Photo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China

Incidentally, among the parties, only the DPT’s manifesto has a specific reference to India in terms of foreign policy. “Throughout all our foreign policy initiatives, our Party will prioritize strengthening our connections with the People and Government of India and maintaining friendly relations with our neighbouring nations,” promised the party.

All of them have proposals for increasing cooperation with India in the hydropower sector and facilitating trade ties, but with also an eye on diversification. The ruling DNT party noted that “our partnership with India will continue to be the cornerstone of our hydropower and energy sector”. “In addition, the projects to build small hydropower projects on our own will be further expanded,” it said.

The newly established DTT party proposed that while “India is our biggest development partner, we also need to explore other partners to meet the volume of investments that we are looking at”. The BTP advocated for the removal of the Sustainable Development Fee for tourists from India at border towns.

Note: A correction was made regarding the regional bases of DPT, PDP and DNT to this article after it was published.

‘Boundary Demarcation With China Soon, Tri-Junction Point a Trilateral Decision’: Bhutan PM

Lotay Tshering said that while Bhutan did not have “major border problems” with China, “certain territories are not yet demarcated”.

New Delhi: The Bhutanese prime minister Lotay Tshering has stated that negotiations on the tri-junction issue must be done with India’s involvement, even as he expressed that Bhutan will be able to demarcate some of its boundaries with China in a “meeting or two”.

During a visit to Belgium, he spoke with a Belgian newspaper La Libre about border negotiations with China in an interview published on March 25.

In that interview, he denied that China had built facilities inside Bhutanese territory. “There is much information circulating in the media about Chinese installations in Bhutan. We don’t make a big deal of it because it’s not in Bhutan. We said it categorically, there is no intrusion as mentioned in the media. This is an international border, and we know exactly what belongs to us,” he said, as per a machine translation.

Tshering said that while Bhutan did not have “major border problems” with China, “certain territories are not yet demarcated”.

“Last month, a Bhutanese delegation visited China, and we are now awaiting the arrival of a Chinese technical team in Bhutan. After one or two more meetings, we will probably be able to draw a line,” the Bhutanese PM told the Belgian paper.

In January this year, a Bhutanese delegation visited Kunming to participate in the 11^th expert group meeting on the China-Bhutan boundary issues.

In addition, Tshering mentioned that Thimphu is monitoring the progress of India and China’s efforts to resolve their boundary disputes, as he then hoped to take forward the matter concerning the Doklam trijunction.

“Doklam is a junction point between India, China and Bhutan. It is not up to Bhutan alone to fix the problem. There are three of us. There is no big or small country; all are three equal countries, each counting for one-third,” said Tshering

These talks on the tri-junction can only start once India and China have “settled” their differences along their borders.

“We are ready. We can discuss this as soon as the other two parties are ready. India and China have problems all along their border. We are waiting to see how they will settle their differences,” he added.

China claims approximately 764 square km in the northwest and central areas of the Himalayan kingdom.

The dispute was initially part of the India-China border negotiations, but direct talks between China and Bhutan commenced in 1984. Since then, there have been more than 24 rounds of border talks and 11 rounds of meetings at the expert level.

In 1997, China proposed a ‘package deal’ wherein they would relinquish claims on central Bhutanese areas in exchange for western territory, including Doklam. However, Bhutan declined the offer, purportedly under pressure from India, concerned about China’s proximity to the Siliguri corridor.

In June 2017, Indian soldiers challenged Chinese troops constructing a road in Bhutan’s Doklam region near the tri-junction of the three countries’ boundaries. The standoff lasted for 73 days, and while Indian and Chinese troops eventually withdrew from the location, satellite images indicate that China has since built up military infrastructure in the area.

During the 2017 Doklam crisis, the Ministry of External Affairs publicly revealed that the two Special Representatives had reached an understanding five years ago in 2012 that “the tri-junction boundary points between India, China and third countries will be finalized in consultation with the concerned countries”.

China had denied that there was a 2012 “understanding” over future trilateral talks on tri-junction. “What was agreed in the 2012 understanding was that in the future, the parties will conduct demarcation on the side of the tri-junction area. This serves to prove that the Indian side had agreed to the fact that the tri-junction area has been established at least on paper,” China’s deputy chief of mission Liu Jinsong told reporters in August 2017.

The Bhutanese PM’s remarks in last week’s interview that three countries would have to finalise the tri-junction point only after joint talks mirrors the 2012 agreement as articulated by India.

After 24 rounds of talks, Bhutan and China signed a “three-step roadmap” for expediting talks to demarcate their land boundary in October 2021.

Stating that India had “noted” the signing of the MoU, MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi added, “You are aware that Bhutan and China have been holding boundary negotiations since 1984. Similarly, India has been holding boundary negotiations with China”.

Note: This article has been edited since publication to include excerpts from the Belgian interview, which have replaced quotes from news outlets’ reports on the piece.

India Takes ‘Note’ as Bhutan Signs Deal With China on Roadmap to Expedite Boundary Talks

The Indian side’s response was muted, cautious and immediate.

New Delhi: Four years after Indian and Chinese troops had a stand-off on Bhutanese territory, Bhutan and China signed a new “three-step roadmap” for expediting talks to demarcate their 470 km-long disputed land boundary.

There was a muted, cautious and immediate response from the Indian side to the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding.

“We have noted the signing of the MoU between Bhutan and China. You are aware that Bhutan and China have been holding boundary negotiations since 1984. Similarly, India has been holding boundary negotiations with China,” said MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi at the weekly media briefing.

A few hours earlier, on Thursday, October 14, Bhutan foreign ministry’s press statement announced the signing of the MoU through a virtual ceremony. The ‘Three-Step Roadmap for Expediting the Bhutan-China Boundary Negotiations’ was inked by Bhutan’s foreign minister Tandi Dorji and China’s assistant foreign minister Wu Jianghao.

The ceremony was also witnessed by Chinese and Bhutanese envoys to India. The two countries do not have formal diplomatic ties, and all communication is channelled through their missions in Delhi.

“The Memorandum of Understanding on the Three-Step Roadmap will provide a fresh impetus to the Boundary Talks. It is expected that the implementation of this Roadmap in a spirit of goodwill, understanding and accommodation will bring the boundary negotiations to a successful conclusion that is acceptable to both sides,” said the foreign ministry readout.

It added that Bhutan and China had “agreed” on the three-step roadmap during the tenth expert group meeting in Kunming, April this year.

A joint press note on the outcome of the April meeting stated that the two sides “discussed a roadmap to expedite the Bhutan-China Boundary Talks”.

During the media briefing in Delhi, the MEA spokesperson was also asked whether India had been informed in advance about the roadmap. He responded that there would be no official reaction for now beyond the two lines.

Bhutan announced that the MoU would be exchanged between the two sides through diplomatic channels. However, the text has not been made public.

As per sources in the Bhutanese embassy in Delhi, information on the process of the negotiations of the bilateral boundary talks with China are highly sensitive and will not be shared with the media at this stage.

Bhutanese sources described the roadmap as a “positive development” that will allow both sides to have “more focused and systematic discussions” on the boundary talks.

“In the spirit of goodwill, understanding and accommodation and conducting our negotiations more systematically and frequently, as agreed in the Roadmap, the two sides should be able to reach agreement on the pending issues and bring the boundary negotiations to a successful conclusion that is acceptable to both the governments,” they added.

China claims around 764 square km of Bhutanese territory, distributed between the north-west and central regions of the Himalayan kingdom.

The Bhutan-China border. Photo: Google Map

While the dispute was earlier subsumed under the India-China border negotiations, direct bilateral talks between the two countries started in 1984. Since then, there have been 24 rounds of boundary talks and 10 rounds of meetings at the expert group level.

In 1997, China had offered a so-called ‘package deal’, under which it would give up claims on areas in central Bhutan in exchange for territory on the western part, including Doklam. However, Bhutan did not accept the ‘deal’, reportedly under pressure from India, which was concerned that it would bring China too close for comfort near the narrow Siliguri corridor.

On behalf of Bhutan, Indian soldiers challenged Chinese troops constructing a road in Bhutan’s Doklam region near the tri-junction of the boundaries between the three countries in June 2017. After a 73-day stalemate, Indian and Chinese troops withdrew from the stand-off location, but satellite pictures have subsequently shown that China has built up a network of military infrastructure in the region.

Last year in June, China made a surprising claim on Sakteng wildlife sanctuary in eastern Bhutan, the first time Chinese negotiators had discussed any region in the eastern sector with their Bhutanese counterparts. No new rounds of boundary talks have been held since the Doklam stand-off.

The announcement of the signing of the MoU has significance for India’s own strategic security in the vital region which connects the Indian mainland to the north-eastern states.

According to Medha Bisht, an expert on Bhutan’s foreign policy and boundary issues, the inking of the agreement for a roadmap is “not surprising” as it was a reflection of the Chinese way of working on boundary agreement. “Much of the ground work had already been done since 2010,” she said,

Over a decade ago, Bhutan and China had agreed to carry out joint field survey of the disputed regions, which was completed by 2015.

While the text of the roadmap is not public, Bisht, senior assistant professor at South Asian University, reiterated that the signing of the MoU should “not raise eyebrows” as it had been “anticipated for a long time”.