Ajay Rai

Varanasi Lok Sabha: Congress’s Ajay Rai Banks on ‘Local vs. Outsider’ Factor Against Narendra Modi

Rai’s strategy of projecting himself as the ‘son of the soil’ and dismissing Modi as a “pravasi” (migrant) or “bahri” (outsider) is not new. In this election, Rai has intensified his nativist card against Modi to new levels.

New Delhi: Targetting Narendra Modi’s Gujarati background, Ajay Rai, the Congress candidate in the high-profile constituency of Varanasi, is banking on the ‘local versus outsider’ factor against the prime minister in the 2024 elections.

Rai’s strategy of projecting himself as the ‘son of the soil’ and dismissing Modi as a “pravasi” (migrant) or “bahri” (outsider) is not new. He has fought two Lok Sabha elections in Varanasi against Modi with a similar narrative, in 2014 and 2019, losing miserably on both occasions.

However, in this election, Rai has intensified his nativist card against Modi to new levels.

On May 28, speaking at a rally, Rai, in a laced attack on Modi, described him as a “thug” from Gujarat. Rai didn’t stop there. He even accused Modi of facilitating the takeover of the land of local farmers at petty rates by Gujarati businessmen, describing them as “Gujarati thugs.” While English language dictionaries describe ‘thug’ as a criminal or thief, in colloquial Bhojpuri, in which Rai was speaking, its nearest translation is to a ‘cheat’ or a ‘swindler’.

“The people here trusted a ‘bahri thug’ (thug from outside), who has continuously cheated you. He has fooled the public and acquired land from farmers for ‘aune paune daam’ (for a song) and sold it to Gujarati businessmen,” said Rai.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav were on stage when Rai launched this attack against Modi.

A former five-time MLA from a seat in Varanasi, Rai started his career with the student wing of the Hindu nationalist outfit and the BJP’s parent organisation, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. The Congress appointed him as its state president in Uttar Pradesh last year. Rai is a Bhumihar and enjoys a support base among a cross-section of voters.

Rai referred to the police lathi-charge on farmers in May 2023 when they had gathered to protest against the acquisition of land for a new township project, Transport Nagar. According to the Varanasi Development Authority, the project would encompass four villages, Karandandi, Milkichak, Sarai Mohan, and Bairawan. In its first phase, the project would “transform” around 48 hectares of land.

Asking farmers to vote against Modi, Rai said it was “time to take revenge.”

“On June 1, send him back to Gujarat or else they will capture all your land. Nothing will remain with you. They will take everything and sell it to Gujarati thugs,” said Rai. The Congress candidate then said that “entire Varanasi” was worried that “Gujarati log (people)” were coming to the city and purchasing land belonging to farmers at petty rates. He also alleged that after Modi came to power and was elected from Varanasi, Gujaratis won all the contracts given to build roads and ports in the constituency. “Did anyone from Varanasi or UP get this contract? These Gujaratis have taken away all our things,” said Rai.

Speaking after Rai, SP chief Yadav also seemed to back this narrative as he took a dig at the Gujarati background of the BJP’s top two – Modi and Amit Shah. “Do you know what G-20 means,” he asked the people, referring to the G-20 Summit hosted by India, including Varanasi, last year. “G-20 means ‘Do Gujarat ke, Baki BJP ke zero’,” said Yadav.

He also raised the issue of police lathi-charge on farmers and promised that if the INDIA alliance was voted to power, they would not snatch their land but even if it was necessary to acquire their land, the government would do so after increasing the circle rates to the market rate.

What’s notable is that in the past elections, Yadav also used to play up the Gujarati card to target Modi. However, after realising that such a move may backfire in UP, where Modi’s Hindu nationalist credentials weigh over his linguistic background, Yadav and his party have toned down that line of attack.

Unlike Maharashtra, where the nativist Marathi manoos versus the Hindi-speaking migrants or Gujaratis is politically divisive, in the north Indian state, the opposition’s attempts to discredit Modi due to his Gujarati background have met with little success. Large populations of the state, especially young men from Purvanchal, where Varanasi is located, work as migrants in big cities and towns in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and other relatively more prosperous states.

Varanasi, though boasting an undeniably authentic flavour of Hindi and Hindu culturalism, is also home to several linguistic minorities, including people originally from Maharashtra, Gujarat, West Bengal, and Andhra Pradesh. Varanasi has also elected a Gujarat-origin man as mayor in the past and Shyam Dev Rai Chaudhari, a Bengali, was elected MLA from Varanasi South, the hub of cultural activities in the city, seven times in a row from 1989.

From 2014, Modi has, on several occasions, tried to affirm his relationship with Varanasi. If in 2014, he said he came to Varanasi on the call of “Ma Ganga,” in 2017, responding to Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra’s jibe against him that UP did not need an “outsider” to develop it, Modi described him as the “adopted son” of UP. Yadav’s wife Dimple Yadav had in 2017 tried to dismiss Modi as an outsider by quoting a line from a famous song from an Amitabh Bachchan movie – ‘Mere angane mein tumhara kya kaam hain‘.

When he was chief minister of UP, Yadav used to target Modi’s ‘Gujarat Model.’ In 2017, during the state elections, which he eventually lost, he caught Modi’s attention after he requested Bachchan to stop doing campaign ads for “Gujarat’s donkeys.” Yadav’s double entendre was inspired by Bachchan featuring in a Gujarat government tourism advertisement on a ‘Wild Ass Sanctuary.’ Yadav also landed himself in hot water in 2017 when he sardonically asked if, while states like UP supplied the country with jawans, anyone from Gujarat had ever laid down his or her life for the armed forces.

While Modi has wide acceptance in western and northern India, he still strives to build a bond with UP, which has elected him as MP twice in a row. In his speeches, he often talks about the relationship between Mathura and Dwarka, bound by the Hindu deity Lord Krishna. If Gujarat was his birthplace, UP has adopted him just as Krishna, though born in UP, considered Gujarat his ‘karma bhoomi.’

At a recent rally in Varanasi, Modi underlined that this was his first nomination for an election in the constituency without his mother. “Ma Ganga is my mother now. Ma Ganga has adopted me,” he exclaimed.

Modi’s campaign in Varanasi has also been about emphasising the fact that the constituency was electing a prime minister but an ordinary MP. This selling card has worked well for Modi since 2014.

But Rahul Gandhi thinks this might not be the case this time.

“This is a fight between Modi and Ajay Rai, not between the prime ministerial candidate Modi and Ajay Rai. Modi will not be prime minister, this is my guarantee. Ajay Rai can win this fight,” said Gandhi on May 28.

In 2019, Modi defeated Rai by over 5.20 lakh votes. This time Rai has the consolation of the SP’s support to the Congress. However, the result seems like a foregone conclusion, given the connection Modi has built with the constituency since 2014 and the mere fact that he is prime minister. Barring 2004, the BJP has regularly won Varanasi since 1991, though with a few hiccups.

From ABVP to Challenging Modi: The Story of Ajay Rai, the New UP Congress President

Rai’s journey with the Congress started in 2012 when he contested as its candidate and routed the BJP nominee to secure the Pindra seat.

New Delhi: Ajay Rai – a politician who started his career with the student wing of Hindu nationalist outfit Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) before going on to contest two Lok Sabha elections against Narendra Modi in Varanasi – was nominated by the Congress as its state president in politically-significant Uttar Pradesh on Thursday, August 17.

Rai is a former five-time MLA from Varanasi. He replaced Brij Lal Khabri, who had been appointed as the Congress state head less than a year ago in what was then seen as a move by the party to reignite interest among the numerically-important Dalit voters accounting for 21.5% of the state population. While Khabri is a Dalit, Rai, 54, belongs to the dominant upper caste Bhumihar community, which though inconsequential in the overall caste arithmetic of UP, has political weight in districts around Varanasi and a strong sense of ‘jati asmita’ or caste pride.

However, a Congress source said that Rai seems to have been nominated to the post due to his personal record and influence, rather than just caste calculations. “We already have a Dalit (Mallikarjun Kharge) as the national president. In UP we want someone who can fight on the streets. We have picked someone who fought directly against Modi. We want to indicate that our fight is directly against the BJP,” said the Congress source.

Like Khabri, Rai was also an import into the Congress. Khabri was a former Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) MP from Jalaun. Rai had a long past with the BJP before he joined the Congress. He was last year appointed a provincial president of the party in East UP.

A graduate of the Kashi Vidyapeeth in Varanasi, Rai began his career as a convenor of the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP), the student wing of the RSS-BJP, in 1991-92. Rai participated in the Ram Janmabhoomi movement and was even held in the Varanasi district jail under preventive sections of the law.

He entered electoral politics with a bang in 1996 when he defeated nine-time sitting Communist Party of India (Marxist) MLA Udal from the Kolasla seat. In 2002, he won from the Kolasla assembly constituency again. A few months later he was rewarded with a ministerial berth as state minister for cooperatives in the Mayawati-led BSP-BJP alliance government. After a third assembly win in 2007, feeling betrayed that the party had picked veteran leader Murli Manohar Joshi as its Lok Sabha candidate from Varanasi despite promising it to him, he quit the BJP in 2009. “I was promised the ticket and I worked hard for a year. But for reasons unknown I was shunted at the last moment,” he told me in 2014.

Rai contested the 2009 Lok Sabha election as a candidate of the Samajwadi Party. He stood third with 1.23 lakh votes but the contest would be remembered more for the way tainted politician and rival Bahubali of Purvanchal Mukhtar Ansari gave Joshi a run for his money. Ansari lost to Joshi by a relatively thin margin of 17,000 votes in what turned out to be a communally polarised contest.

Even though Rai denies it, in the narrow lanes and by-lanes of Varanasi, it is often said that after sensing that he would not win, Rai campaigned for Joshi to ensure Mukhtar Ansari’s defeat because of their bitter relationship. In June 2023, a Varanasi court convicted Ansari and sentenced him to life for murdering Rai’s brother Awadesh Rai in 1991.

Rai’s journey with the Congress started in 2012 when he contested as its candidate and routed the BJP nominee to secure Pindra (earlier known as Kolasla). The BJP candidate was reduced to 3,000 votes as Rai got his sweet revenge.

It was in this setting that the Congress in 2014, looking to prevent the BJP’s prime ministerial face Narendra Modi from securing Varanasi, one of the holiest Hindu cities, picked Rai as his challenger. Arvind Kejriwal was the other candidate in the highly-watched contest. Rai’s nomination elevated his stature. However, since the contest was reduced to a fight between Modi and Kejriwal, he had to contend with a third-place finish. The same thing happened in 2019 when the SP-BSP alliance candidate o edged past him as runner-up against Modi, who won by a huge margin.

While the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha election results in Varanasi may not be a referendum on Rai’s local popularity, his electoral fortunes have definitely declined ever since his association with the grand old party. In both 2017 and 2022, Rai stood third from Pindra, a seat he had once claimed as his own. A big question mark also hangs on how Rai will rejuvenate the debilitated Congress unit in Uttar Pradesh as we inch closer to the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Ex-MLA Mukhtar Ansari Gets 10 Years in Prison Over Murder of Congress Leader’s Brother

Congress leader Ajay Rai’s brother Awadhesh was killed in 1991.

Ghazipur (UP): A district court here has sentenced gangster-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari and an accomplice to 10 years in prison under the Gangsters Act in connection with the murder of Congress leader Ajay Rai’s brother.

Additional Sessions Judge, MP/MLA Court, Durgesh also imposed a fine of Rs 5 lakh each on Ansari and his accomplice Bhim Singh on Thursday.

The court convicted Ansari and Singh under the Gangsters Act and sentenced them to 10 years in jail, Additional District Government Counsel (ADGC) Neeraj Kumar said.

Elaborating on the case, Kumar said at around 1 am on August 3, 1991, Congress leader Ajay Rai and his brother Awadhesh were standing at the gate of their house in Varanasi when some car-borne assailants, including Ansari, came there and shot Awadhesh.

All the attackers had weapons in their hands. Ajay Rai fired from his licensed pistol, following which the assailants left behind their car and fled, he said.

Ajay Rai rushed his brother to a hospital in Kabirchaura, where doctors declared him dead.

In this connection, a case was registered against Ansari and Singh at Ghazipur police station.

A five-time former MLA, Ansari, 59, is facing over four dozen criminal cases. He is at present lodged in Banda jail in Uttar Pradesh.

EC Rejects Nomination of BSF Soldier Who Wanted to Battle Modi in Varanasi

Tej Bahadur Yadav has accused the BJP of putting up hurdles in the nomination process to ‘prevent’ him from contesting the polls.

New Delhi: The Election Commission has forced sacked BSF soldier Tej Bahadur Yadav to sit out of the Lok Sabha race.

Yadav had earlier announced his candidature against Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Varanasi on April 24. The Samajwadi Party subsequently extended their support to him on April 29 by making him their official candidate.

The Returning Officer today rejected his nomination, as Yadav has not submitted a certificate from the Election Commission stating that he had not been dismissed from service due to “corruption or impropriety”.

Yadav was qualified to contest the elections as he had been dismissed from the BSF on disciplinary grounds, but was told at the eleventh hour that he needed a ‘clearance’ certificate from the EC.

Told to procure clearance certificate from EC only on Tuesday

It was only on Tuesday that the Returning Officer of Varanasi issued a notice to Yadav seeking an explanation about the alleged discrepancies in the nomination papers filed for the seat.

Varanasi Assistant RO Rajesh Kumar was quoted saying that the notice was served on Yadav since “he has not taken permission from ECI regarding contesting polls, which needs to be taken in case a government official who has been removed or suspended wants to contest polls.”

But, as Yadav pointed out, the clarification should have been sought earlier when he had filed his first nomination as an independent on April 24.

Also read: Why ‘Real Chowkidar’ from BSF Says He’s Fighting ‘Fake Chowkidar’ Modi in Varanasi

Legal expert says he should have filed EC certificate along with nomination

Former legal adviser to Election Commission S.K. Mendiratta said “as per law, at the time of filing the nomination paper, the candidate is also supposed to file a certificate from the Election Commission stating that he may have been dismissed from service but it was not due to ‘corruption or impropriety’. It is provided in law that if you do not attach that certificate with the nomination paper then the Returning Officer cannot accept the nomination paper.”

Mendiratta said, “Yadav’s problem is that he did not attach the certificate till the end. So procedurally, the Returning Officer was right in rejecting the nomination.”

He explained that it is “written in Section 33 (c) sub section 3 that that if you do not provide the certificate then you are not deemed to be duly nominated.”

So the question here is also why Yadav was not properly advised when he was filing his nomination.

Yadav accuses BJP of putting obstacles in his nomination process

At the District Collectorate in Varanasi, Yadav accused the BJP of putting up hurdles in the nomination process to “prevent” him from contesting the polls. He attributed this to his earlier claim that he was the ‘asli chowkidar’ (real watchman) while Modi was the ‘naqli chowkidar’ (fake watchman).

“I am being stopped from fighting elections as the ‘nakli chowkidar’ of the country is afraid of the ‘asli chowkidar’,” Yadav alleged.

After the EC’s notice, Yadav, who was declared the candidate by SP-BSP-RLD combine, tried hard to procure the EC clearance within the short span of time he was given – till 11 this morning. He said: “We were asked to reply by 11 am today. My counsel has given all the answers, correspondences with the Election Commission (EC) to the RO’s office. An NOC (no-objection certificate) is needed from the BSF, as to on what grounds I was dismissed.”

Also read: BSF Jawan, Sacked for Complaining About Food Quality, Will Take on Modi in Varanasi

However, as he could not procure the NOC, the nomination was rejected. But Yadav he was “asked to produce the evidence at 6.15 pm yesterday” and despite his doing so, the nomination was rejected. He termed the Election Commission’s decision “wrong” and “dictatorial”. He also declared that he would go to the Supreme Court for relief.

Akhilesh says BJP not prepared to take on soldier who complained about food

Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav has said that the BJP was not prepared to take on ‘real soldier’ Yadav, who was dismissed from the BSF for using the social media to raise the issue of poor quality food being served to soldiers.

“When they are asking for votes in the name of nationalism, they should have faced a soldier. People who dismissed him from his job because he complained about food, how can those people be called real patriots?” he asked.

Incidentally, the former BSF soldier’s nomination had attracted a lot of attention. Arvind Kejriwal of Aam Aadmi Party, who had contested opposite Modi in 2014 and secured over two lakh votes, also backed his candidature.

Rashtriya Janata Dal had issued a tweet in his favour: “Vote for the soldiers directly – in Varanasi… If your patriotism is not hollow”.

It now appears that SP will have to go back to its earlier candidate, Shalini Yadav, who it had said would step in as a back-up candidate in the event of any problem with the ex-soldier’s nomination.

(With inputs from agencies)

SP Fields Former BSF Constable Tej Bahadur Yadav Against Modi From Varanasi

Yadav, who had uploaded a video on social media complaining about the poor quality of food being served to troops in 2017, was dismissed from the forces on the charge of indiscipline.

Lucknow: The Samajwadi Party on Monday nominated former BSF constable Tej Bahadur Yadav, who was dismissed after complaining about the quality of food, as its candidate against Prime Minister Narendra Modi from Varanasi.

The SP, which is in an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal, had earlier declared Shalini Yadav as its candidate from Varanasi, while the Congress has renominated Ajai Rai.

“I was sacked for raising the issue of corruption. My sole objective will be to strengthen and eliminate corruption in the forces,” Yadav told reporters when asked about SP’s decision to field him.

Also Read: Why ‘Real Chowkidar’ from BSF Says He’s Fighting ‘Fake Chowkidar’ Modi in Varanasi

Yadav will be challenging Modi in Varanasi constituency of Uttar Pradesh, an SP leader said.

The former Border Security Force (BSF) soldier had uploaded a video on social media in 2017, complaining that poor quality food was being served to the troops in the icy, mountainous region along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. He was later dismissed on the charge of indiscipline.

Varanasi will go to polls in the seventh phase of the Lok Sabha election on May 19 and the last date for filing nominations is Monday

Modi Files Nomination For Varanasi Lok Sabha Seat

The prime minister was accompanied by a host of top leaders from BJP and NDA.

Varanasi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi filed his nomination papers for the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat on Friday, accompanied by a galaxy of top BJP and NDA leaders in what was a massive show of strength for the country’s ruling alliance.

Bihar Chief Minister and JD-U chief Nitish Kumar, Union minister and LJP chief Ram Vilas Paswan, Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray and Shiromani Akali Dal patron Parkash Singh Badal were with Modi at the collectorate as Modi filed his papers, seeking a second term in the Lok Sabha from the temple town.

BJP leaders, including party president Amit Shah, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and senior Union ministers Rajnath Singh and Sushma Swaraj, were also present on the occasion.

Before reaching the Varanasi collectorate to file his nomination, Modi went to a temple to offer prayers.

Also Read: ‘No Road, No Vote’: Two Villages in Varanasi Decide to Collectively Boycott Polls

The prime minister, who reached here on Thursday and brought life to a standstill as he held a seven kilometre roadshow through the town, also addressed party workers in the morning.

The country, he said, is witnessing a pro-incumbency wave for the first time. He noted that the mood is festive from Kashmir to Kanyakumari and said party workers are the real candidates.

The prime minister said that he had worked honestly for good governance and the people had made up their minds that they want another Modi government.

“During yesterday’s roadshow here, I have sensed the hard work of party cadre,” he said amid chants of “Modi Modi”.

Modi, who also participated in the Ganga aarti at the Dashashwamedh ghat, addressed a late night meeting here on Thursday. While the last five years were about his government making sincere efforts, the next five will be about results, he said.

Modi also laid stress on national security and said that new India gives a befitting reply to terror.

In 2014, Modi won the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat, defeating Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal by a massive margin of 3.37 lakh votes.

Modi polled 5,16,593 votes – about half the total votes – while Congress’ Ajay Rai finished third.

Rai is the Congress candidate this time as well, from the constituency that goes to the polls on May 19.

Congress Fields Ajay Rai Against Modi From Varanasi

The decision ended speculation on Congress general secretary, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra contesting polls from Varanasi.

New Delhi: The Congress on Thursday fielded Ajay Rai from Varanasi to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ending speculation on party general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra fighting polls from the temple town in Uttar Pradesh.

The ‘will she, won’t she’ suspense finally ended in a sort of anticlimax with the nomination of Rai, who unsuccessfully contested against Modi in 2014 and finished third in the contest after the BJP leader and Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal.

The Congress also fielded Madhusudan Tiwari from Gorakhpur against BJP’s actor-turned politician Ravi Kishan.

Speculation on Priyanka Gandhi making her political debut from Varanasi was fuelled after Congress president Rahul Gandhi, to a question on whether he planned to field his sister against PM Modi, said last week, “I will leave you in suspense. Suspense is not always a bad thing.”

Priyanka Gandhi herself added to the buzz by saying on Tuesday that she would abide by her party’s decision on the matter.

Also Read: Why ‘Real Chowkidar’ from BSF Says He’s Fighting ‘Fake Chowkidar’ Modi in Varanasi

After years of working in Congress backrooms, Priyanka Gandhi joined full-time politics in February as in-charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh, hoping to change the party’s fortunes in the ongoing Lok Sabha election.

The Samajwadi Party on Monday declared Shalini Yadav, who joined the party Monday evening, as its candidate from Varanasi.

Varanasi constituency will go to polls in the last phase on May 19.

With the announcement of the two seats, the Congress has named candidates for 424 seats in all.

Prime Minister Modi will file his nomination papers for the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat on Friday in the presence of senior NDA leaders, including JD(U) president Nitish Kumar and Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray.

In 2014, Modi won the seat by a margin of over three lakh votes against Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal. While Modi got over 5,81,000 votes, Rai managed about 75,000 votes.

Is Modi’s Presence in Varanasi a Sign of BJP’s Desperation to Win UP?

Till the third phase of the UP assembly elections, the BJP had a relatively quiet campaign, but it seems to have changed its tactic mid-way through the fourth phase, making excessive use of the prime minister.

Till the third phase of the UP assembly elections, the BJP had a relatively quiet campaign, but it seems to have changed its tactic mid-way through the fourth phase, making excessive use of the prime minister.

Samajwadi Party supporters at Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi’s roadshow in Varanasi on March 4. Credit: Titash Sen/The Wire

Varanasi: For the last three days, the political capital of the country seems to have shifted to Varanasi. Yesterday, it witnessed the rally of an ex-chief minister, a road show of the current chief minister with the vice president of the main opposition party, and a ‘de-facto road show’ of the prime minister – all in a single day. As residents breathe a sigh of relief after yesterday’s historic road jam, their problems are not likely to ease till March 6, the day when the campaign for the last phase of the UP elections comes to an end.

Most hotels are fully booked and scores of OB vans are stationed in Varanasi as journalists from Delhi and UP remain camped in the city, along with a number of star campaigners, officials and security personnel. There is a camera in every other tea-kachori shop, clichéd talk shows in boats on the Ganga or at Assighat have flooded television screens, and ‘local experts’, popularly called ganmany naagrik, are overworked as journalists run out of ideas to do stories on. In this scenario, a surprising development is the sudden increase in rallies and the presence of Prime Minister Modi in Uttar Pradesh.

The current scenario

After its failure in the Bihar elections – where Modi and Shah were over exposed in a high decibel campaign – and the success in Assam elections – where local leaders got prominence in a comparatively low profile campaign – BJP leaders were relying more on the Assam model in UP till the third phase. However, it changed its strategy mid-way after the fourth phase and in the last two phases, a sudden surge in Modi’s rallies and programs – including a three day stay in his constituency, Varanasi – shows that the party has decided to once again over expose its biggest star.

One apparent reason could be the pitiable state of the party candidates in the prime minister’s own Lok Sabha constituency. The Varanasi district has eight assembly constituencies and the BJP won three of them in the 2012 elections. Two were won by the BSP and one each by the SP, Congress and Apna Dal. Generally, two seats of the district are considered reserved for two specific candidates – Ajay Rai of Congress at Pindra and Shyamdev Roy Chaudhary at Varanasi South – both of whom have been MLAs many times. While Rai still appears strong at his own seat, BJP created trouble for itself by denying a ticket to Shyamdev Roy Chaudhary. Known more by his nickname ‘Dada’, Chaudhary is a veteran Bengali politician who commands immense respect in the city due to his down to earth lifestyle and honesty. After witnessing the scale of popular anger against the party once Dada was dropped, the BJP tried to control the damage by bringing Chaudhary in the official campaign, but without much effect. Congress has fielded former Varanasi MP, Rajesh Mishra here, while the BSP candidate Rakesh Tripathi is also a Brahmin. In a triangular contest, Mishra appears better placed than the BJP candidate, Neelkanth Tiwari.

Assighat, at Varanasi. Credit: Rajan Pandey

The BJP is seemingly confident of winning the Cantonment constituency seat, though there seems to be hidden anger within party ranks against the candidature of Saurabh Srivastava. Srivastava is the son of incumbent BJP MLA Jyotsana Srivastava whose family members have been getting BJP tickets from this seat for very long – a fact that has led to anger among party workers. But even if it wins this seat, the BJP’s prospects on the remaining five seats seem bleak. On the Varanasi North seat, BJP’s sitting MLA Ravindra Jaiswal is in trouble this time. Jaiswal succeeded in winning this seat defeating BSP’s Sujit Maurya by a slender margin of around 2000 votes only. This time, Sujit appears stronger than last time as the induction of Mukhtar Ansari into BSP has added the strength of Ansari voters to his tally, which could spell trouble for Jaiswal.

On the Shivpur seat, BJP’s Anil Rajbhar is considered a ‘weak candidate’ against BSP’s Thakur Virendra Singh, a former minister, who has considerable clout on this seat, and SP’s Anand Mohan Yadav, a close confidant ofchief minister Akhilesh Yadav. At the Sevapuri seat, sitting MLA and minister Surendra Singh Patel of SP appears strong when compared to BSP’s Mahendra Nath Pandey and BJP alliance’s Nil Ratan Singh Patel. In this scenario, the party’s only hopes lie at the remaining two seats of Rohaniya and Ajgara SC. While BJP candidate Surendra Narayan Singh appears to be gaining popular support at the Rohaniya seat, the party’s prospects at the Ajgara SC seat seem dicey due to stiff competition from BSP candidate and sitting MLA Tribhuvan Ram and Lalji Sonkar of SP. If the party fails to make any positive impact here, its chances would come down to only two seats of the district (Cant. and Rohaniya), spelling a loss of one seat in the prime minister’s own turf.

A clash of conspiracy theories

While the above reasons appear to be the most likely explanation for the prime minister’s three day program in Varanasi, some other theories abound. One theory is that the BJP is winning UP elections now, and the party wants Modi to be credited for it, which is why it has increased his presence in the state. Adding weight to this theory are two broad assumptions. One is that the party has the widest spectrum of electoral support, spread across upper castes, OBCs and Dalits, which means it is likely to get the highest vote share. Second it appears to be the only party which is in contest on the highest number of seats, and thus is likely to win the maximum number of seats. Some experts cite the instance of 2012 elections, when the SP was fulfilling these two conditions and finally ended up winning 224 seats.

However, one severe challenge to this assumption comes from the fact that while 2012 was broadly a bipolar contest, 2017 is an absolute triangular fight – from Gautam Budh Nagar to Kushinagar and Moradabad to Lalitpur – thus making these assumptions weak. One challenging theory doing the rounds is that the BSP is coming to power in UP, which is why parks and statues made during Mayawati’s previous regime are being cleaned and repaired aggressively. An assumption adding weight to this theory is the low polling percentage recorded during some of the phases, which means the upper castes, considered the spine of BJP’s support, have not voted overwhelmingly. While the exact reasons for cleaning Mayawati’s parks remain unexplained, it won’t be appropriate to dismiss BJP’s performance by low voting percentage, as things appear to be different this time. While upper castes used to be the base of BJP’s electoral support in previous elections, it is the non-Yadav OBCs who have taken this responsibility since the 2014 elections. In this scenario, a low voting percentage may not mean BJP getting less votes despite a lesser turn-out of upper caste voters, as the party’s supporters from non-Yadav OBC castes are still casting their votes in its favour.

Though a lot of confusion still remains over the direction in which UP elections are going, it appears safe to assume that since all of these parties are locked in a triangular contest across the state, with their respective mass bases standing behind them, UP might head towards a hung mandate if the present situation persists.

Rajan Pandey is an independent journalist and author of Battleground UP: Politics in the Land of Ram.

Varanasi on Edge as Tradition – and Politics – Clash With Mission to Clean Ganga

Riots in the city after the local administration refuses permission to Hindu groups who want to immerse idols in the Ganga

Riots break out in the city after the local administration refuses permission to Hindu groups who want to immerse idols in the river

A heavy police contingent arrives after violent clashes with sadhus and police in Varanasi on Monday. The clashes broke out during a demonstration by sadhus and devotees against the September 22 police baton-charge on a procession where they were heading to immerse Ganeshas idol in the Ganga. Credit: PTI

Varanasi: The deep furrows in his forehead belie young Sanjay’s (name changed) age. A 6th generation Bengali clay idol maker, he says “till a few years back, my profession, my skills, were a thing of pride. They brought me decent money and respect. Customers would come and flatter me and try to get me to make idols for them. But now I think it’s a curse.”

Like other members of this small community of Bengali idol makers of Varanasi — most of them bearing the family name Pal — Sanjay finds himself in the crossfire of river and religion politics being fought between the Congress and the BJP in this city.

The Allahabad High Court has banned the immersion of idols in the Ganges. As expected this move has been opposed by Hindu groups and puja committees which have claimed their right to immerse idols in the Ganges as an indelible part of their religious rites. A writ seeking a change in the decision was filed by the aggrieved, but was rejected by the court.

Pressed between the court order and the political pressure from the Hindu collective, till date the administration had taken the convenient path of looking the other way and not enforcing the ban on the ground. But now in 2014, post the election of Narendra Modi from Varanasi, the politics of river and religion finds itself in a queer twist. Hindu politics and clean Ganga are now at cross-purposes and the BJP finds itself in a peculiar situation.

On the one hand Modi began his election campaign from this constituency with the famous emotive statement about how he had responded to the call from mother Ganga, and thus firmly put Hindu religious sentiment at the centre of the BJP’s program here.On the other, accompanied by much publicity, he replaced the Ganga Action Plan of 1986, put together by Rajiv Gandhi, with the newly formed Clean Ganges Mission. Of course, with a budget of over Rs 1.5 billion (15000 crore), no dependency on the state government and a unified command, the Clean Ganga Mission is potentially far more capable. And the Mission is being headed by hardline Hindutva leader Uma Bharti who has famously said that she will clean the Ganges by 2017.

On September 22 this year, many thousand strong processions of Hindus confronted the police and were caned over the issue of immersion of Ganesh idols. Now with Navaratri and Durga Puja festivities set to start in less than a week, tensions over idol immersion in the Ganges are flaring up once again.

A few days later, a few hundred sadhus were joined by political activists in the ‘Anyay Pratikar Yatra’ at the city’s Town Hall grounds to protest this police action. By the time the procession reached the Godawliya area, tensions were high and a scuffle broke out with the police. A lathi charge followed and the activists retaliated by setting afire a police van and pelting stones. Some reports said a police booth was burned down as well.

Tense situation

The situation in Varanasi remains tense and the Rapid Action Force, water canons, armed police and fire trucks have been deployed at busy junctions of the city. The protesters have vowed to get back on to the streets sooner than later.

The Congress party has been quick on capitalising this and has been taking a lead in organising and participating in the protests. Congress MLA Ajay Rai, who is seen by many as the chief political brain behind this, was even put under preventive arrest when he landed from Delhi at the Varanasi airport following a meeting with Rahul Gandhi.

Speaking to this reporter, BJP strongman and mayor of the city, Ram Gopal Mohale said, “Yes it’s a delicate situation. Modiji and Umaji have made it clear in no uncertain terms that the Ganges needs to be cleaned. And we will do all it takes to get that done. But it is also true that the immersion of idols is part of our tradition and it isn’t easy to convince people to change their habits”

When asked how he plans to go about it without risking his core vote bank, he said, “We are liberal enough to find ways around things. This time round we are asking people to use bio degradable and organic paints that don’t pollute the water.” Though he didn’t elaborate on how they would ensure the use of bio-degradable paints only and not harmful ones, or if his office had formulated any acceptable list for the same, he made a stray reference to experts in the BHU doing chemical tests.

Grim mood among idol makers

Back in the Bengali Tola the mood is grim. Though nobody stopped journalists from taking pictures, the workers maintained a stony silence, refusing to make any comment on what was happening.

Sanjay, who agreed to speak only after he was convinced by a common acquaintance of this reporter of complete anonymity, explained the silence. “Obviously no one will talk. They are all scared. Overnight we have become criminals. Officials are raiding our homes looking for paint as if it was contraband. Even when we show them that we are using vegetable dyes and non-synthetic paints it’s no use because they can’t tell one kind from another. There is no clear instruction from anyone. All they do is threaten us with action and all we can do is plead with them.”

“We are the weakest link” his neighbour, another idol maker adds. “We are the only people the officials can pressurise and so they show all their power to us” The neighbour has had his production shut down by officials for using varnish which is on the proscribed list and has now joined work with Sanjay.

“These are made from combinations of hard earth from the fields and soft earth from the Ganges itself. And the insides are made of straw and wood. No plaster of paris or anything is used. These don’t last more than an hour and a half in water. Varnish is used only to highlight eyes, lips of the Goddess or show sweat on the forehead of Mahisasur. How can these be worse pollutants than the diesel leaking from the motor boats on the river or the effluents from Kanpur?”

Data from the Central Pollution Control Board’s 2013 report on pollution in the Ganga agrees with this observation and shows that industrial effluents (especially from Kanpur tanneries) far outweighs any other form of pollution at any point in the Ganga’s flow.

Sanjay ends on a wistful note, “I have invested around 5 lakhs and together with my five hired artisans I have worked for over 6 months making these 20 idols. If we don’t sell these idols or my workshop is closed down, there is absolutely no way for us to recover our losses”