Jaipur: In order to deflect the criticism mounting against the Uttar Pradesh government’s handling of the Hathras gangrape case, the ruling BJP has begun to push a narrative portraying that it is indeed the Congress-ruled Rajasthan which is the worst-performing state in the country in terms of crimes against women, relying on the latest data of the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB).
BJP IT cell coordinator Amit Malviya, in a tweet on Sunday, said that Rajasthan – a “non BJP” state – has registered the highest number of rape cases in the country in 2019, and added that Uttar Pradesh has the lowest number of rape cases per lakh population.
Rajasthan registered highest number of rape cases in the country as per NCRB 2019 data. Delhi city has the highest number of rapes… Both non-BJP!
UP on the other hand has the lowest number of rape cases per lakh!
But where is all the politics happening?https://t.co/kb9T3bBv8k
— Amit Malviya (@amitmalviya) October 4, 2020
Malviya has referred to the latest NCRB data pointing out that rape cases registered in 2019 were highest in Rajasthan, totalling to 5,997 cases, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 3,065 cases.
Also read: Hathras: In Affidavit to SC, UP Govt Peddles Half Truths, Says Conspiracy Afoot to Malign It
While Malviya’s tweet seems to project Rajasthan as the “rape capital”, NCRB, however, suggests that “rise in crime” and “increase in registration of crime by police” are completely two different scenarios.
“An oft-repeated expectation from certain quarters that an effective police administration will be able to keep the crime figures low is misplaced,” states the NCRB report.
“Increase in crime numbers in a state police data may in fact be on account of certain citizen-centric police initiatives, like launching of e-FIR facility or women helpdesks, etc. The increase or decrease in crime numbers, however, does call for a professional investigation of underlying factors jointly with local communities to suitably address the issues involved,” the report adds.
A host of factors
Drawing a simplistic conclusion based on the number of cases registered in a state could be misleading, as there are a number of factors that play a deciding role.
A case, in the first instance, could be registered only if the authorities are willing to take a note of the crime. In many places, the recent example being the Hathras gangrape case, authorities tend to remain in denial. This makes it difficult for the victims to report the crime.
Researchers believe that the increase in the number of cases registered is reflective of people’s trust in the system.
Speaking to The Wire, the Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative’s (CHRI) Raja Bagga says, “Rise in the number of cases also depends upon better reporting by the authorities and the trust of people in the police. One has to analyse the chargesheeting rate, pendency rate and the conviction rate to draw a holistic conclusion.”
Women activists take part in a protest over the death of Hathras gangrape victim and Babari mosque case verdict, in Kolkata, Thursday, October 1, 2020. Photo: PTI/Ashok Bhaumik
Bagga says that delay and denial in reporting of crime could have a detrimental effect on the trial.
“There are instances where the case is registered 200 days after the offence. In such a case, even though the crime is registered, it would be difficult for the prosecution to catch hold of the crucial evidence and lead to a conviction,” he adds.
Bagga emphasises that higher crime rate could also be interpreted as fewer barriers for reporting crime.
In the case of Hathras gangrape in Uttar Pradesh, authorities had secretly cremated the body of the rape victim without the consent of her family. When the media brought it out, journalists were barred from meeting the family of the woman. Such brazen acts on the part of the authorities to bury the evidence clearly discourage victims and survivors of sexual assault from reporting crimes.
“Considering the barriers in reporting crime, the higher crime rate in Rajasthan could be due to either high incidence of crime or fewer barriers in reporting or both,” concludes Bagga.
Along with the number of cases registered, there are several factors that must be seen while drawing a conclusion.
To understand where Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh stand in terms of crime against women, The Wire has analysed the NCRB data in two states based on various factors, including conviction rate, pendency rate, population and number of cases registered.
Also read: Hathras Case: SC Asks Adityanath Govt to Apprise it on Witness Protection Measures
For instance, the population of state plays a key role in determining the rate of crime. There may be several states with minute differences in the number of cases registered, but states with a larger population will have a low rate of crime.
In case of Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, the number of rape cases registered were 5,997 and 3,065 respectively in 2019. However, UP has a population of 2,259.67 lakhs and Rajasthan 776.01 lakhs.
In this case, while the difference between the number of cases registered in the two states is not stark, calculation of rate of crime will bring the crime rate in UP significantly down owing to its high population.
Again, the number of cases of crime against women reported in UP is 45% higher than in Rajasthan. However, if one takes into account the population, the crime rate of crime against women in Rajasthan will be double that of UP.
According to the NCRB data, the conviction rates in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh are not substantially different. While in Rajasthan, conviction rate for crimes against women is 45.5%, in Uttar Pradesh, it is 55.2%.
According to researchers, higher conviction rate does not conclusively prove that the judicial system is efficient. The conviction rate takes into account the number of convictions, acquittals and discharge – all that comes into the picture after the police file a chargesheet in a case.
Cases where the complaint has not been registered or the police has not chargesheeted the accused, the question of conviction rate will not arise.
Bagga says, “In terms of the conviction rate, there is 10% variation which is not stark. Also, both states do much better than the national average, which is 23.7%. Again, while in general, conviction rate fluctuations/ differences can be attributed to multiple factors, and while low conviction rates are definitely a serious concern, high conviction rates may not necessarily mean that the process is efficient or just.”
The pendency rate in Rajasthan is 85.8%, whereas in UP, it is 92.4%. The pendency rate for Rajasthan is, in fact, lower than the all-India average.
“With limited variations in conviction and pendency rates, if one were to compare Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh purely by numbers, then the rate of crime would be the differentiating factor, and clearly it is much higher in Rajasthan,” says Bagga.
