New Delhi: The swearing-in ceremony of H.D. Kumaraswamy as the chief minister of Karnataka has become a talking point as both the Janata Dal (Secular) and Congress have projected the event as a show of opposition unity ahead of the 2019 general elections.
H.D. Deve Gowda, the JD(S) supremo and former prime minister, has already said that his party has invited all the anti-BJP leaders for the function, the motive being to bring together “all the secular, democratic forces opposed to the communal BJP”. He said that this political platform was also meant to “send a message to anti-BJP forces across the country”.
The Karnataka assembly election results have made it clear that regional parties will play a crucial role in case the BJP does not manage a simple majority on its own in 2019. While its own allies may assert their weight against the BJP, regional parties may also want to cobble up a united opposition pole.
The problem with such a proposition, however, has been the regional parties’ stance on the Congress. Some like K. Chandrasekhar Rao of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) – although it cannot be called a regional party even though it has lost its grip all over India except Kerala – have already indicated that a tie-up with Congress should be avoided.
However, it is being said that the TRS may change its stand against its principal opposition party in Telangana as it helped the Congress and JD(S) MLAs from Karnataka secure a safe haven in Hyderabad ahead of the crucial floor test only recently. This was seen as a positive overture by the TRS towards the Congress.
The other group of regional parties like the Janata Dal (Secular), Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, and the Trinamool Congress are open to state-specific pre-poll alliances with the Congress, depending on its strength in the respective states. Thus, while Congress may play a smaller role in states like Uttar Pradesh, where it is not a substantive force, regional parties like BSP may have to settle for a compromise with the Congress in states like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh or Madhya Pradesh, where the grand old party is the main opposition party.
Those equations will have to still be worked out between the parties. And it is in this politically-dynamic context, the coming together of anti-BJP leaders in Kumaraswamy’s swearing-in assumes importance. Ahead of the ceremony, originally scheduled to have taken place on 21 May but was postponed to 23 May because of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi’s death anniversary on the 21st, Deve Gowda in an interview to The Hindu has categorically made his view clear by saying that “any anti-BJP alliance without Congress is impossible”.
Among the leaders who have confirmed their presence in the event are Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, chief minister of West Bengal Mamata Banerjee, Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, Telangana’s chief minister K. Chandrashekar Rao and his son K.T. Rao, Andhra Pradesh’s chief minister N.Chandrababu Naidu, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief M.K. Stalin, Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati, Rashtriya Janata Dal scion Tejashwi Yadav and Kamal Haasan, who recently launched his party, Makkal Needhi Maiam.
Jaganmohan Reddy of the YSR Congress, who is expected to lead the opposition in next year’s Andhra Pradesh assembly elections against Naidu, is missing in the list as of now. This has led to speculations that by not attending the ceremony, perhaps, he has left a window open to ally with the BJP in case of a hung verdict both in the assembly and at the Centre.
H.D. Kumaraswamy greets BSP supremo Mayawati at her residence in New Delhi on Monday. Credit: PTI/Atul Yadav
CPI(M), as the only party opposed to the Congress, in its party congress held recently, had chosen the middle path regarding tie-ups with the Congress after a long-winding debate between the so-called Prakash Karat and Sitaram Yechury camps within the party. At the end, the biggest Left organisation in its political line agreed to have “no political alliance” with the Congress as against Karat’s line of “no understanding or electoral alliance”, leaving the door open for issue-based support to the Congress.
This reflects in the party’s May 22 politburo decision that both the general secretary, Sitaram Yechury, and Kerala CM, Pinarayi Vijayan, would attend the swearing-in ceremony. This means that the Left leaders and their political enemy in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee, will come together as an anti-BJP front. The last time the two were seen together was in 2015 at Nitish Kumar’s swearing-in ceremony in Bihar when Kumar was elected as RJD-JD(U) mahagathbandhan leader. Later, Kumar walked out of the alliance and formed government with the BJP.
The BJP has had to suffer a huge face loss in Karnataka as it tried to cobble up a majority before the floor test. Allegations of influencing governor’s decision to give Yeddyurappa 15 days to prove its majority, poaching, bribing and offering ministerial berths to opposition MLAs were made against it. And when eventually it could not muster enough numbers, its dream of increasing its footprint in India’s south went for a toss.
The BJP’s aggression shown in Karnataka to form its government may have further strengthened the opposition parties in its resolve to counter the BJP nationally. Kumaraswamy now attempting to cement the anti-BJP front, the efforts of which were on for several months, may cost the BJP dear in the coming months.
