There is an overweening sense emerging in Donald Trump and his supporters that he is unstoppable. From petty revenge to high policy, his actions are being applauded by his now-enlarged MAGA (Make America Great Again) base.
But a closer look could reveal that the Trump presidency could lead the US to a crisis of unprecedented proportions.
The points of the crisis are many and just about visible now.
His 25% tariffs on the US’ closest neighbours Mexico and Canada have now been postponed for a month. Both, responsible for 40% of American imports, made it clear that they would retaliate, though they would pay the larger cost of the tariffs, if they were imposed.
But the US would also have paid a price in terms of rising prices, stalling investment, slowing growth and the dragging down of exports. Weaponising the US economy as a bludgeon, Trump will undermine the trust that has been the foundation of American economic strength.
Trump’s pardon and commutations for 1,500 people who rioted on January 6, 2020 is another crisis point. Those pardoned were violently attempting to prevent the US Congress from certifying Biden’s election as president of the US and so by any measures, this was an effort to overthrow the legally elected government of the US. Beyond the issue of sedition, this will make political violence acceptable in the US.
The action, instigated by the then-President Trump himself, has deepened the already existing partisan divide between the Democrats and the Republicans.
By claiming that the rioters were victims rather than perpetrators, Trump has not only undermined the forces of law and order in the country, but has encouraged the rise of vigilantes and militias loyal to himself only. “These were people that actually love our country,” Trump has said of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers.
Domestically, by allowing Elon Musk to run riot through the US bureaucracy, sacking and sidelining thousands of federal employees on grounds of loyalty, he is undermining the stable and largely non-partisan US governmental system.
Further, social cohesion could be weakened by Trump’s executive order banning automatic citizenship to those who are born in the US, which violates the 14th amendment of the US constitution. It could create a class of stateless persons of children born to undocumented immigrants or those on temporary visas like the H-1B.
Trump’s targeting of intelligence agencies, the military, financial and business regulators and the law enforcement apparatus marks a new era in the US where favour and punishment are dished out on the whims of a leader and not on the long-established rules of their institutions.
As it is, his picks for cabinet ranks like Pete Hegseth, Kash Patel, Robert F. Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard could contribute to undermining American institutions and the rule of law.
Trump has promised a golden age in America, but if we are to go by his wild plans, the US could end up with quite the opposite. The reason for this is that the US is already doing rather well economically and tinkering with it in the manner promised by Trump could bring adverse consequences.
Trump has proposed policies that contradict each other – tariffs that will end up as a tax on consumers, tax cuts that will exacerbate the federal deficit, mass deportation of undocumented immigrants that could lead to serious shortages of labour, deregulation efforts that will conflict with his protectionist trade policies.
Abandoning the Green agenda is another of his promises. As part of this, he is revoking the 2021 electric vehicle (EV) mandate aimed at making 50% of new vehicle sales electric by 2030.
But all this will do is to slow down the American transition to EVs and make it harder for American automakers to compete with the Chinese globally. As it is, the US has been wracked by extreme climate events, including out-of-control wildfires, almost certainly a result of climate change.
The columnist Martin Wolf has noted: “The combination of a persistently loose fiscal policy with wild deregulation, the tariffs and mass expulsion of immigrants is likely to reignite inflation.” This combined with financial deregulation “could trigger another financial crisis” and a collapse of the stock market.
Abroad, too, Trump’s policies could undermine the standing of the US. His plans to occupy the Panama Canal and ‘buy’ Greenland have caused consternation.
His “fiery” conversation with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen just before his inauguration indicated just how serious he was about wanting Greenland. This could create a first-class crisis between NATO and the US, but what is striking is the pusillanimity of the European allies whose response to the outrageous version of modern imperialism are at best muted.
Perhaps the biggest and lasting damage Trump can do is to the basic structure of the US constitution. The framers of the constitution self-consciously structured a system of checks and balances so that no one branch could dominate the others. Written in the 1770s, it ensured that the powers of the three principal pillars of governance – the executive, legislature and judiciary – were separated to prevent tyranny.
The legislative branch made laws and checked the executive through powers of overriding vetoes and impeachment. The executive enforced laws and could veto legislation. It also appointed judges with the approval of the Senate. The judicial branch interpreted laws and could declare actions of the executive and legislature unconstitutional.
In the past 200 years or so, the balance of power has shifted from the legislature to the executive. Trump as president sought to expand presidential power further in his first term and is now set to run riot in his second.
With the Republican Party that has a majority in both houses of Congress firmly in his control, Trump is able to push persons whose only qualification is loyalty into key positions of his administration.
The US Supreme Court has played a dubious role in furthering the Trump agenda. In his first term, he appointed three of the court’s nine justices, the most in the last 90 years . This has given a marked ideological tilt to the right and a “supermajority” of 6-3 to the conservatives.
This has been evident in their major rulings such as overturning abortion rights protection, barring universities from considering race in admissions and limiting the ability of agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency to enforce regulations aimed at protecting public health and environment.
The Court’s ruling in Trump v. United States has significantly expanded presidential powers, especially concerning immunity from prosecution for “official actions”, a category so poorly defined that Trump can now do almost anything he wants. The ruling could enable Trump and future presidents to abuse their power by operating with a level of immunity enjoyed by authoritarian rulers.
In Greek mythology, hubris refers to excessive pride and arrogance that leads people to defy the gods. This inevitably invites the goddess Nemesis to extract retribution from those who seek to disrupt the cosmic balance. Trump’s declarations and actions that seek to overturn America’s tried and tested domestic arrangements, his desire to forcibly expand US territory, ride roughshod over allies, turn globalisation inside out, all in the space of the four years of his presidency, certainly reeks of hubris whose consequences are inevitable.
The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
