The Karnataka assembly elections have larger implications for national politics. First, if the Congress is able to pull off a win in Karnataka, it will not only re-energise the party but also catalyse broader opposition unity. Unity attempts have seen much action in recent months, after Rahul Gandhi’s expulsion from Parliament, and several regional party leaders reaching out to each other on the platform of a caste census.
Karnataka is already showing that local caste cultures, driven by religious mutts, are not amenable to easy infiltration by the Hindutva forces. The powerful mutts belonging to Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities want to exercise some political influence but have clearly shown that they do not support the Hindutva ideology per se. This was evident when the head of a top Vokkaliga mutt rejected the BJP’s idea of reinventing history by spreading a new narrative that Tipu Sultan was killed by two Vokkaliga rebels when recorded history says he was killed by the British. A BJP MLA had to announce the shelving of a film project on the subject. The mutt head apparently told the BJP that Muslims and Vokkaligas had lived harmoniously for centuries and he did not want the harmony spoiled by fake history.
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The Lingayat mutts – born out of an anti-Brahmin reform movement in the 12th century – too are wary of Hindutva, although they have had a power arrangement with popular Lingayat leaders like B.S. Yediyurappa, Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi. The BJP’s central leadership has dumped Shettar and Savadi but is still reluctantly dependent on Yediyurappa for Lingayat votes. It wants to eventually tame the Lingayat leaders and evolve a new state leadership which is able to create a broader Hindutva vote base without necessarily depending heavily on the Lingayats. This is the crux of the permanent tension between Yediyurappa and the BJP’s central leadership. Yediyurappa also strongly believes in maintaining good relations with the Muslim community and does not endorse the BJP’s aggressive majoritarian approach. So, Hindutva keeps coming up against the local caste-cum-religion cultures that have historically emanated from social reforms guided by anti-Brahminism.
Of course, the BJP under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah wants to alter this social history but so far its efforts have not borne fruit. In my travels through Old Mysuru, Chikkamagaluru, Hassan, Shivamogga and Hubballi, there was hardly any talk of Hindutva issues like hijab, love jihad, uniform civil code or NRC, which the BJP has introduced in its manifesto. These issues have no resonance with the people at large. Even politicians were not talking about them.
Of course, in coastal Karnataka (Mangaluru-Udupi region), Hindutva politics has a purchase, but the rest of Karnataka is clearly guided by local caste cultures. This sits rather well with the opposition’s growing demand for a caste census. If the Congress is able to ride the strong anti-incumbency sentiment, this will certainly give a boost to the broader opposition move to counter Hindutva with a more rational and equitable, caste-based approach to politics, now that reservation policy covers all castes.
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The other big factor in Karnataka that negatively affects the BJP’s image at the Centre is the scale of corruption in the state. Corruption is always an issue everywhere but the sheer scale of corruption in Karnataka, which resulted in the slogan “40% Sarkara”, is bound to dent the BJP’s image at the national level, too. As Siddaramaiah put it: “Where is Modi Ji’s promise of Na khaaunga, na khaane doonga?” Modi is campaigning hard in the state but has not once tried to counter the “40% Sarkara” charge.
The anti-corruption plank of the BJP is gradually cracking and by 2024 things might get worse. In short, Karnataka has a lot to offer to national opposition politics in the run-up to 2024, if the Congress pulls off a good win.
