Karnataka assembly elections 2023

‘Politics Made Me Take a Lot of Pride in My Identity’: New Karnataka MLA Nayana Motamma

Nayana Motamma has worked as a corporate lawyer at Luthra and Luthra Law Offices, and is an alumna of the National Law School of India University and the University of Pennsylvania.

During the recent Karnataka state assembly elections, the Indian National Congress (INC) claimed victory by winning 135 seats in the 224-member strong House, with the incumbent government led by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) conceding defeat on May 13.

Fighting on an INC ticket, Nayana Motamma was elected as a member of the legislative assembly from the Mudigere constituency in the Chikmagalur district. Mudigere is a constituency reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates. It is the same constituency that elected her mother, the former minister of women and child welfare of Karnataka, C. Motamma, thrice, in 1978, 1989 and 1999.

Nayana has worked as a corporate lawyer at Luthra and Luthra Law Offices, and is an alumna of the National Law School of India University and the University of Pennsylvania.

She spoke with The Leaflet on her and her party’s win, the role of women and non-party civil society organisations in the electoral victory, and her experiences with law and politics.

Q: Can you share how, according to you, the win for you and the INC happened in Karnataka? What were the major reasons for the victory?

A: A couple of years of work on the ground, and connectivity with the women and the youth were key to winning the constituency. Even though Mudigere is a reserved constituency, I did not concentrate on any one particular community. I worked with all communities, since everybody is going to be a constituent.

About the state and our party’s win, the people in Karnataka were very tired of the BJP government and its unfulfilled promises. People were particularly tired of its corruption. There was also huge fatigue towards the BJP due to rising prices of essential and everyday items.

The INC has worked for the overall benefit of the people in the past, and people felt strongly that it was time to return us to power so that we can serve them again.

Q: How did the caste issue pertaining to the votes of the Scheduled Tribes and Castes and the lingayats play a role in the state assembly elections?

A: Caste is a very regional issue. Be it the upper castes, the Scheduled Castes, the Scheduled Tribes, the Kurubas, or the minority population— they all have voted for the INC this time. Hence, depending on the region, it cannot be said that only a particular segment or a particular caste voted for us.

Lingayats voted for the INC in North Karnataka and the Vokkaligas in the Mysore region. Overall, throughout Karnataka, we have done well even in the seats reserved for Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe candidates.

Q: Why do you think people across all castes in Karnataka voted for the INC over the BJP?

A: The BJP came to power because of Operation Lotus. Immediately after the BJP took power in Karnataka, we were hit by the COVID pandemic. We need to see how the government handled the pandemic in Karnataka. Also, the BJP calls itself a double-engine government (to appeal to voters to choose the BJP in state elections as it would lead to better coordination with the BJP-run Union government, leading to better development of the state).

With so much going for it, did it work well for the people in terms of wealth creation?

Overall, people want better living conditions. They want wealth creation for themselves, and they want to do better in life. People felt that it was not going to happen during the reign of the BJP-led government, both at the Union and the state levels.

Also, resentment towards the BJP was on the rise because of the 40 percent commission BJP officials were allegedly demanding for government projects. Many associations and lobbies openly made such allegations. All of these things, coupled with the failure to meet promises, including in terms of job creation and price control, caused disillusionment with the BJP among the people in Karnataka.

During (current INC Chief Minister) Siddaramaiah’s previous government in Karnataka (in 2013–18), we had the Anna Bhagya scheme, to ease provision of basic necessities like rice, which worked well for constituencies like the one I represent, where poverty is a chronic problem. The fact that the BJP-led government cut down the quantity of free rice that was being provided to people— anything between 4–6 kg; in some places 4 kg of rice and 2 kg of ragi; and 6 kg of rice in some other areas— was a huge setback for economically backward people.

During the COVID pandemic, for two years, when life was very difficult, access to basic necessities like rice became even more important than before. However, the BJP-led government was oblivious to the plight of the economically backward sections. Compare this with the earlier Siddaramaiah government, during which, along with rice, dal and oil were also provided free of cost to those in need by the government.

In rural areas, the provision of such basic things— ensuring that the penerious do not have to spend hard-earned cash on buying rice or other basic supplies— matters a lot, irrespective of caste.

The rise in the price of LPG meant for household consumption, from ₹450 to ₹1200, is a huge jump. How many people can really afford such a price rise? In rural setups in particular, where the BJP government had sold the idea of cooking gas as an ‘affordable’ alternative, women now have to pay more than twice the original price, and there is a sense of betrayal.

These things hit irrespective of caste lines. It is not that caste does not matter, but above all, it is about being able to survive and live a better life, which the BJP was unable to provide. People felt assured that Congress has worked for the welfare of the people before, and it will do so again.

Q: Media reports point out that women have been big contributors to the INC’s victory in Karnataka. Do you think this is true? Do you think the hijab ban created a negative bias among women against the BJP?

A: I interacted a lot with women in my constituency, and people used to say openly that they will not bring the BJP back this time in Karnataka.

I come from a background where my mother has worked with self-help groups, wherein she initiated the Stree Shakti Sangha 23 years ago as the state’s women and child welfare minister. The setup of self-help groups still works, and that setup is still relevant today; they are as relevant, if not more, as they were 23 years ago.

People want to have better living conditions, especially better economic conditions. Once economic conditions are better, you have a better social condition. People involved with the self-help groups get together and they talk about their everyday lives, including the money that they need to save and the loan they are seeking a waiver on.

People went through tough two years during the COVID pandemic, when they were not earning their daily wages. Now, they want a government that can make things easier for them.

The scheme to provide free bus passes for women while travelling on government buses changes women’s perspective. They can travel farther and more frequently now, giving them more freedom of movement as well as the economic and social opportunities to grow.

The fact that we are giving ₹2,000 per month to only women (under the Gruha Lakshmi Yojana) and providing 10 kg rice for every member of a below-poverty-line (BPL) household matters a lot for the economically backward— that is why women became the biggest backers of the INC.

In respect of the hijab ban, I do not think it had any bearing on the elections.

Q: It has also been written that non-party civil society organisations have played a key role in the INC’s victory. This is considered to be unprecedented. How do you think this played out?

A: I saw that in our constituency, Dalit organisations and farmer’s associations, including the Raitha Sangha (a Karnataka-based farmers’ movement), galvanised support for us.

Civil society organisations want the common man to have a comfortable life. Not making life difficult for a common man is the basic theme for everybody.

Firstly, for Dalit organisations, it is about upholding constitutional values. Who will uphold these values? Who is not a threat to the Constitution, and to what the Constitution provides for us? The organisations strongly feel that the BJP is a threat to their values. Secondly, the farmer’s associations felt that the BJP did not work in favour of farmers.

Thus, each of the civil society organisations have their own positive agenda which is beneficial for their own particular interest groups, making them come together to support the INC.

Q: Could you share your experience of being a Dalit lawyer in India and of being a student at the University of Pennsylvania in the US? Did you experience any caste-related issues in the US in comparison to your experience working here?

A: I was a corporate lawyer and worked in the corporate legal group of the ICICI Bank before venturing into politics. I never felt attacked based on my caste while I was at the University of Pennsylvania or at my workplace.

However, the subtleties of caste are always there— you will feel it with your colleagues or hear some jibes about it, which is something many of us who come from this background as Dalits live with.

Politics has been a great channel for me to own my identity and to be able to wear it on my sleeve. Politics made me take a lot of pride in my identity.

Q: You have worked with the Luthra and Luthra Law Offices, a leading corporate law firm in India, before joining politics. Could you share your experience of working with or your interactions with Rajiv Luthra, the founder and managing partner of Luthra and Luthra, who recently passed away?

A: Mr Luthra is somebody I knew really, really well, and I remember him extremely fondly. He was one of the most generous people I have had the honour of knowing.

For instance, once, when I was in London for a holiday and Mr Luthra was there for work, I remember that he ordered a drink and he shared the drink with the people who were serving us, the waiters in the room, which spoke about what a big man he was— those are my learnings and takeaways from him. When I was at Luthra & Luthra, he took care of us very well.

I never worked directly with Mr Luthra, since he was a managing partner and I was working with the capital market team. Because we all had different streams to work on, I did not have any direct work with him.

Q: How has your experience studying and practising law translated into the political field? How do you think the two merge? Does law help in politics, particularly in relation to campaigning?

A: I had a lot of clarity about wanting to get into politics eventually, and because of this, I decided to study and practise law. Although I worked as a corporate lawyer, I definitely knew I wanted to be a politician.

As a lawyer, I had to serve my clients well and maintain a rapport with them, to ensure that they keep coming back to the law firm, and to give them the best advice. Also, I had to ensure safeguarding the interests of the clients. Similarly, in politics, one needs to safeguard the interests of one’s constituents and to look after their well-being, and that professionalism is something that I bring to politics from my legal background.

However, just because I am a lawyer, people expect me to know all fields of the law, which is an unfair expectation. As a lawyer, you can only practise a particular stream.

Hopefully, I will get into legislation and policy-making. As I mature in the political field, I hope to contribute better to law-making processes.

Q: Can you share your future plans or ideas about it with us?

A: Politics is something where you need to stay in the game. You need to be a winner at all points in time, which is the only way you get counted. It is important to keep winning elections and to do effective work. In politics, you need to be with the people, address their issues, be there for development, and to uphold things that matter a lot to your constituents.

Moving forward, I will be focussing on, firstly, the overall development of the constituency and the people within the constituency; secondly, to keep winning elections. According to me, this is the only way to learn more and get better in the field of politics.

Sarah Thanawala is a staff writer at The Leaflet.

This article was originally published on The Leaflet.

Decentralised Set-up Becomes a Big Boon for Congress

The Modi-Shah duo wants to tightly control the party organisations at the state level and make all chief ministers beholden to them. The Congress, though, has recently allowed a decentralised management of the elections in states.

Some keen political observers have begun to note how the BJP is now fully emulating the Congress of the 1970s and 1980s in the way it practises rigid centralisation in the management of the party organisation, especially in the context of strategising state elections.

The Karnataka polls particularly exemplified this role reversal in which the BJP’s state leadership was undermined systematically by the Modi-Shah duo and the Congress allowed its state leaders full freedom to manage almost all aspects of the elections with just a light guiding touch from New Delhi.

Noted political scientist and expert on Karnataka James Manor, who participated in a live YouTube discussion on the election results organised by five online news organisations including The Wire, said the Congress (read the Gandhis) had made huge mistakes in the past by imposing chief ministerial candidates unilaterally, thereby weakening the state leadership. He suggested that the Congress had learnt from its mistakes and the Karnataka elections outcome was possibly a reflection of that.

Also read: Gandhi’s Vision Resonates in People’s Massive Mandate for Congress in Karnataka

The BJP, on the other hand, has ensured that no powerful leaders emerge at the state level, as seen in most of the assembly elections held after 2019, whether in Maharashtra, Haryana, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh or Jharkhand. Adityanath seems to be the only exception who is emerging as an independent power centre for various reasons which need not be elaborated here.

The larger point is that the Modi-Shah duo wants to tightly control the party organisations at the state level and make all chief ministers beholden to them.

This is in sharp contrast to the way the Congress has allowed a decentralised management of the elections in states like Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and now Karnataka. Of course, at times, things do appear chaotic because of such decentralisation as multiple power centres emerge. This was seen in Madhya Pradesh in the past and is being witnessed in Rajasthan at present. In Chhattisgarh, too, there have been more than one vocal claimants to the chief minister’s post. Such assertion by state leaders was unheard of during Indira Gandhi’s period when state leaders were too scared to open their mouths in public. Even Rajiv Gandhi had the tendency to talk down to, even insult, state-level leaders.

All this has changed partly because the Gandhi family’s capacity to attract voters on their own strength has declined after the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. But they still act as a glue that keeps the party together in spite of multiple desertions by senior leaders in various states over the years.

Also read: Decoding the Karnataka Election Results in 18 Charts

The Gandhis have figured that the Congress can now revive only in a more decentralised format. In a sense, they have now evolved a new compact with strong state leaders. Some years ago, I asked Congress treasurer Motilal Vora (since deceased) why Rahul Gandhi shows such visible respect for the Kerala leadership. Kerala seems to have a disproportionate influence even in the central decision making of the Congress. Vora said Kerala is a well-oiled, decentralised party machinery which manages its own affairs, raises its own funds, fights elections and helps strengthen the Congress overall. Karnataka, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh can also fit well into Vora’s description of a new, decentralised Congress. In future, this must remain the biggest strength of the Congress vis-a-vis the Modi-Shah duo if the party hopes to defeat the BJP in 2024.

This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.

Gandhi’s Vision Resonates in People’s Massive Mandate for Congress in Karnataka

Gandhi’s perspective that voters should vote for those who remain wedded to the unity of people cutting across faiths resonated in the Congress’s massive 43.8% vote share.

The emphatic victory of the Congress party in elections for the Karnataka assembly by winning 135 seats out of 224 with a staggering vote share of 43.88% and the crushing defeat of the BJP in spite of the spectacular campaign of Prime Minster Narendra Modi is being studied and explained in a variety of ways. The BJP lost badly despite Modi reciting the religious slogan ‘Jai Bajrang Bali’ while campaigning and asking people to vote for his party by raising the same slogan. It was clearly in violation of the model code of conduct and the Representation of People’s Act which prohibits political parties and their leaders from asking for votes in the name of religion.

The significant electoral outcome in Karnataka can be understood by employing the perspectives of M.K. Gandhi on the shared culture of the Kannadigas professing diverse faiths, celebrating communal harmony and also upholding their commonalities in spite of getting defined by several other identities including caste identity. Gandhi’s perspectives flow from his numerous writings and articulations spelled out in his speeches delivered during his visits to Bangalore (now Bengaluru), Mysore, Tumkur, Belgam and Hassan when he was spearheading the struggle for independence.

Gandhi predicted in 1924 that Karnataka will show the way to India

A hundred years ago in 1924, Gandhi extended unequivocal support for the creation of a separate Karnataka province based on the Kannada language and nourished the fond hope that it would uphold the age-old values of communal amity, provide remedies to deal with Brahmin/non-Brahmin friction, and show the way forward for India as a whole.

The spirit of what he said in 1924, when Karnataka as a separate entity did not exist, sounds so contemporary in the context of statements made by several leaders that the outcome of the Karnataka elections representing defeat of majoritarianism in the state offers lessons for the whole of India.

It would be worthwhile to focus attention on Gandhi’s speech delivered at a Citizens’ Meeting in Bangalore on August 28, 1927. He said, “You have no Hindu-Muslim quarrels. You are unaffected by the misdoings in the North.”

Such a remarkable legacy of Karnataka “unaffected by the misdoings in the North” was sensitively flagged by Gandhi almost 100 years back and tragically, with the advent of the BJP in the electoral arena of the state, the “misdoings of the North” were slowly introduced against the will of its people. The BJP government of Karnataka headed by Basavaraj Bommai went several steps ahead by banning Muslim girls wearing hijabs from entering schools and classrooms. Hindutva groups issued call for a boycott of halal meat normally prepared by Muslims and used by them and other communities. Worst of all, an appeal by Hindutva organisations was issued to drive out Muslims from all social and economic activities.

Those were some of the sinister measures taken to polarise Karnataka’s society and cut it asunder on faith lines. The false and manufactured narrative that Tipu Sultan was not killed by the Britishers while fighting against them but was assassinated by two Vokkaligas, Uri Gowda and Nanje Gowda, was hailed by the Vokkaliga leader C.T. Ravi, national general secretary of the BJP. That unprecedented and utterly fictitious assertion was made to drive a wedge between Karnataka’s Hindus and Muslims, described by Gandhi as the right and left eye of our motherland. He said so on July 14, 1927 in his speech delivered in Tumkur in response to the address presented to him by the municipality of the town.

What the Hindutva organisations did in Karnataka to polarise society is contrary to the syncretic and pluralistic ethos of the state, which the BJP wanted to alter for electoral purposes. The Congress manifesto in contrast invoked the ideal of ‘Sarva Janangada Shanthiya Thota (Peaceful garden of all communities)’, affirming Gandhi’s vision.

Gandhi’s perspective on cow protection as an economic issue

On the issue concerning implementation of the religiously divisive Karnataka Prevention of Slaughter and Prevention of Cattle Act, 2020, it is well documented that it caused severe economic hardship to both Hindus and Muslims, even as it was framed to target minorities, particularly the Muslims engaged in cattle trade.

Hindus owning cattle found to their dismay that Muslims, earlier buying unproductive cows and oxen, did not come forward to buy them due to harsh punitive measures provided in the Act. They were also deterred and frightened by cow vigilantes who apart from indulging in violence against Muslim cattle traders, even lynched some of them. As a result, economic woes impacted both the Hindus and Muslims in equal measure. Therefore, they came together, took a stand against the BJP during the elections and most of them voted for the Congress.

The BJP government in Karnataka, while enacting the cow protection law, dismissed warnings from the state’s Finance Department that such a law would be economically disastrous. It is striking to note that Gandhi wrote a letter on January 11, 1927 to the Cow Protection Committee, Mysore, and said, “In matters of religion I am against any State interference, and the cow question is in India a mixed matter of religion and economy.”

Also read: A Vote Against ‘40% Commission’, ‘Double Engine Sarkar’ and the Politics of Hindutva

The BJP government, driven overwhelmingly by religion on matters relating to the prevention of cow slaughter, neglected the common economic interests of both Hindus and Muslims who took united action to defeat the Bommai regime. Thus, Gandhi’s perspective that protection of cows from slaughter has an economic aspect explains why both Hindus and Muslims extended their support to the Congress.

Brahmin and non-Brahmin issue

Gandhi noted in the early 1920s that the Brahmin/non-Brahmin issue had emerged in Karnataka and it should be sorted out by mutual reconciliation. It is instructive to note that during the election campaign when B.L. Santosh, a BJP leader and that too a Brahmin from Karnataka, played a determining role in selecting candidates for contesting elections and Yeddyurappa was sidelined, it was interpreted as an attempt to give more space to Brahmins in the party at the cost of non-Brahmins.

There was a spate of articles indicating that the Brahmin/non-Brahmin issue affecting BJP plagued political and electoral processes in the state. Even Rahul Gandhi’s statement that he wanted a caste census and his slogan, “Jitni Abadi, Utna Haq,” or rights proportionate to a community’s share in the population, boils down to addressing Brahmin/non-Brahmin issues by upholding the cause of social justice. In all such developments resonate Gandhi’s vision that Brahmin/non-Brahmin issues deserved amicable settlement.

Gandhi wanted voters to vote for candidates upholding Hindu-Muslim unity

In 1925, Gandhi while answering a voter’s question – “What is the duty of the voters in the coming elections to the Legislative Council?” – appealed to voters that they should only vote for those candidates who while remaining committed to the cause khadi, spinning, prohibition and abolition of untouchability resolutely stood for unity among Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Parsis and Jews. In other words, he wanted people to vote for candidates contesting elections by taking into account the basic issues, one of which centred around communal unity and amity.

It implied that he wanted voters not to exercise their franchise in favour of those who divided them on the basis of faith and polarised society by taking up religious issues. Gandhi’s advice assumes crtical significance in the face of the danger of majoritarianism unleashed by Hindutva forces across large parts of India. In the voting pattern displayed by Karnataka voters, they amply demonstrated their preferences for candidates of the Congress who upheld the ideal embodied in ‘Sarva Janangada Shanthiya Thota’.

Gandhi’s perspective that voters should vote for those who remain wedded to the unity of people cutting across faiths resonated in the Congress’s massive 43.8% vote share, demonstrating unmistakably that such vast numbers represented diverse faiths and they preferred candidates upholding Hindu-Muslim unity. It was beautifully put by Rahul Gandhi when on May 13, 2023, while briefing the press after his party’s victory, he said that in Karnataka people have opened the shops of love and the market of hatred has been shut. During his Bharat Jod Yatra, he addressed the growing trend of hatred being peddled by Hindutva forces in the name of religion and stressed that unity of India founded on the ideal of love would triumph. In fact, the victory of the Congress in 36 out of 51 seats covered by Rahul Gandhi in the Bharat Jodo Yatra signifies the triumph of unity of people representing diverse faiths.

Also read: Ten Factors to Remember Amidst the Congress’s Win and BJP’s Defeat in Karnataka

The Karnataka election victory, in this sense, has shown the way for communal amity and unity. In this victory one finds resonance of the vision articulated by Gandhi in 1924 that the state of Karnataka “…will provide the way to Hindu-Muslim unity and thus show the real way to swaraj”. He also proceeded to add, “Thus, for Karnataka sincerely and lastingly to solve the Brahmin-non-Brahmin problem is to solve all her other problems and thereby largely India’s also.”

The country is celebrating the 75th anniversary of our independence which is embodied in the idea of Swaraj – one of the key components of which, according to Gandhi, remained rooted in Hindu-Muslim unity. Prime Minister Narendra Modi often employs Hindu-Muslim binaries. His raising of the ‘Jai Bajrang Bali’ slogan in the election campaign in Karnataka and his appeal to voters of the state to exercise their franchise by reciting the same slogan violated the law prohibiting political leaders to seek votes in the name of religion, unmistakably amounted to mixing religion with politics and reaching out to one particular community. It negates the enduring tradition of inter-faith harmony and Hindu-Muslim amity.

The Congress victory in the state in 2023 with 42.88% vote share mirrored Gandhi’s vision in terms of Hindu-Muslim unity and triumph of love over hatred. It offers lessons for the whole country to defeat the majoritarianism posing a danger to the idea of India.

S.N. Sahu served as Officer on Special Duty to President of India K.R. Narayanan.

Decoding the Karnataka Election Results in 18 Charts

What does the granular data tell us about voting patterns in Karnataka?

The long-awaited results of the Karnataka general assembly elections 2023 are in, and the Indian National Congress (INC) has emerged as the clear winner with a convincing victory, securing 135 seats and an overall vote share of 42.9%.

This is a remarkable achievement for the party, as they haven’t won such a massive mandate since the 1989 elections, where they secured 178 seats and a vote share of 43.76%. In the 1978 elections, the Congress party had obtained a vote share of 44.25%, bagging 149 seats. However, it’s important to note that prior to 1978, the Karnataka legislative assembly was known as the Mysore legislative assembly and had 216 seats, making any comparison with current results less astute.

The INC emerged victorious, securing an impressive 55-seat gain from its previous tally of 80 seats in the 2018 elections. However, it was a different story for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which suffered a massive setback, losing 38 seats from its previous count of 104. The biggest change, though, was the dismal performance of the Janata Dal (Secular), which lost almost 50% of its seats from the 2018 elections. The JD(S) had won 37 seats in the previous election of 2018, but this time, it managed to secure only 19 seats.

Vote shares

While the BJP managed to maintain its vote share of 36% from the previous Vidhan Sabha election of 2018, the INC made significant gains by capturing an additional 4.8% of the vote share. Unfortunately, it was bad news for the JD(S), which lost a whopping 5% of its vote share. Interestingly, it seems like the INC may have managed to absorb a significant number of JD(S) votes. We’ll dive deeper into this phenomenon as we explore the various political divisions.

Independent candidates managed to capture a respectable 5.2% of the vote share and secure 2 seats in the Vidhan Sabha. Less than 12 hours after the election results were announced, one of the independently elected MLAs, Latha Mallikarjun from AC-104 Harapanahalli, announced her unconditional support for the INC.

The margins

The election was closely contested, with parties securing seats by varying margins. The table below highlights the range of seat margins. Surprisingly, some victories were secured by a margin of less than 2,000 votes, with BJP winning Jayanagar by just 16 votes. While a significant number of constituencies saw decisive victories, with more than 74 seats being won by a margin of over 25,000 votes, it’s worth noting that 79 assembly constituencies were won by a margin ranging from 10,000 to 25,000 votes.

Margin of Victory	BJP	INC	JD(S)	KRPP	IND	SKP	Total
Less than 2000	7	5					12
2001 to 5000	10	17	3				30
5001 to 10000	10	15	3	1			29
10001 to 25000	18	49	10		1	1	79
25001 to 50000	15	37	3		1		56
Above 50000	6	12					18

D.K. Shivkumar, president of Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC), secured the highest victory margin of 1,22,392 votes, making him the only MLA candidate to win with a margin of over one lakh votes in the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections. Interestingly, among the top 10 victory margins, eight candidates belong to the Congress and the remaining two are from the BJP. Out of the top 10 highest margin winners in the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections, Laxmi R. Hebbalkar is the only woman MLA. She won from Belgaum Rural with a margin of 56,016 votes, securing the 9th position in the list.

In the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections, the victory margin in 12 constituencies was less than 2,000 votes. While the BJP won seven of these constituencies, the remaining five were won by the Congress. In this closely contested battle, some prominent leaders won by a narrow margin, including Congress leader Dinesh Gundu Rao, who won by just 105 votes. Nayana Motamma, a first-time contestant, secured her win by a margin of 722 votes from Mudigere. Notably, the BJP’s C.K. Ramamurthy won the Jayanagar seat by a mere 16 votes, defeating INC’s Soumya Reddy. Malur and Srinegri seats were also won by INC with a margin of 248 and 201 votes respectively.

Women MLAs

In the 16th Karnataka assembly elections of 2023, 10 women candidates were elected, surpassing the previous Vidhan Sabha’s count of nine. Ten women candidates out of 185 contestants were successful in winning seats, with Laxmi R. Hebbalkar obtaining the highest victory margin (56,016 votes) among all the winning women candidates and ranking ninth overall in the state. It is worth mentioning that she also had the highest victory margin among all the women MLAs in the 2018 elections as well (51,724 votes). The newly elected Vidhan Sabha comprises four women MLAs from the INC, three from BJP, two from JD(S), and one independent MLA. However, Latha Mallikarjun, has pledged unconditional support to the Congress post the results.

Political divisions

The Vidhan Sabha election analysis provides deeper insights when observed across the six political divisions of Karnataka. These divisions are Bengaluru, Belgaum/Kittur/Mumbai, Central, Gulbarga/Kalyana/Hyderabad, Mysuru/Southern, and Coastal Political Division, as shown in the above image.

In the Bengaluru Political Division, which is the most urbanised division of Karnataka, the INC has been steadily improving its vote share in the Vidhan Sabha elections over the years – from 37.4% in 2008 to 39.5% in 2013, and finally to 40.7% in the 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections.

In 2013, the combined vote share of BJP + KJP + BSRCP was 30.3%. In the 2023 VS results, BJP managed to improve its vote share significantly to 41.2%. BJP has gained both in terms of its seat count (from 11 to 17) and vote share (from 35.8% to 41.2%) in the Bengaluru division.

On the other hand, JD(S) has been the biggest loser in this division, with its seat tally reduced from 7 to 1 and vote share from 20.9% to 12.3% between the last two Vidhan Sabha elections.

The INC was successful in shaking the BJP’s stronghold in the Kittur division.The Belgaum Political Division witnessed a significant turnaround in the 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections as the INC was able to outperform its previous performance. In the 2018 elections, the BJP had emerged as the clear winner in this division. However, in the recent elections, the INC was able to increase its seat tally from 17 to 33 and its seat share from 39.4% to 42.6%.

One of the most significant losses for the BJP occurred in the Central Division, where it came down to six seats from an earlier tally of 24. The BJP had a remarkable performance in the 2018 Vidhan Sabha elections in the Central Political Division, but in the recent 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections, the INC managed to significantly improve its performance. The INC increased both its seat tally and vote share, with a rise in seat tally from 12 to 27 and seat share from 36.2% to 44.2%. However, the JD(S) experienced a decline in vote share from 14.6% to 9%, despite opening its seat tally to two in this division.

Contrary to popular belief, BJP increased its vote share from 18.2% in 2018 to 21.4% in Mysuru division. It is the JD(S) which ceded close to 9% vote share here changing the overall political game. In Southern Karnataka, JD(S) and INC have had a strong presence with BJP gradually increasing its vote share over the four elections. However, in the 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections, INC was able to increase its vote share by 5.8% and secure 30 seats, which is a significant increase from the 16 seats it won in the 2018 Vidhan Sabha election.

In the Gulbarga/Hyderabad Political Division, INC had a good performance in the 2018 Vidhan Sabha, and in the recent 2023 Vidhan Sabha, INC improved its performance by increasing its seat tally from 15 to 19 and its vote share from 42.2% to 43.4%. On the other hand, both BJP and JD(S) have witnessed a decline in both seat count and vote share.

Coastal Political Division has been a stronghold for the BJP. In the 2018 Vidhan Sabha, BJP secured 51% of the votes in this division. However, in the 2023 Vidhan Sabha elections, it has suffered losses in both seat count and vote share, but it still remains the largest political party in this division. On the other hand, INC has shown significant improvement by increasing its seat count from 3 to 8 and vote share from 39.2% to 41.3%. BJP’s seat count has decreased from 18 to 13, and its vote share has fallen from 51% to 46.3%.

Poonam Yadav is the CEO and Founder of Chunaav.

A Vote Against ‘40% Commission’, ‘Double Engine Sarkar’ and the Politics of Hindutva

The tradition and culture of Karnataka politics meant that the BJP’s efforts to communalise the electorate and move away from serious issues were in vain.

The electorate of Karnataka has decisively voted against two fundamental issues in the assembly elections of May 2023: unbridled mega-corruption of the BJP government and its politics of hate in the name of Hindutva. The ‘Double Engine Sarkar’ made no sense when the local engine would not move without the fuel of 40% commission. There have also been other critical issues, such as price rise, increasing unemployment and the anti-farmers and anti-workers policies of the BJP that led the people to vote overwhelmingly for the Congress.

Talking about mega-corruption, it must be noted that the ‘death by suicide’ of Santosh Patil, a contractor from Belagavi, has not gone in vain. People have avenged it abundantly. D. Kempanna, the president of the Karnataka Contractors’ Association, too has been daring in exposing that this was not an individual case and that every contractor was made to pay this commission, right from junior engineers to ministers. However, it is Santosh Patil’s dying declaration that nailed the ‘40% commission Sarkar’ of former minister Eshwarappa and the government. What is more shocking is that Patil was the national secretary of the Hindu Yuva Vahini, a BJP youth outfit. That was the unkindest cut. The BJP government was so corrupt that it did not exempt its own cadre from payment of bribes.

Also read: Ten Factors to Remember Amidst the Congress’s Win and BJP’s Defeat in Karnataka

The ‘40% commission’ and the ‘PayCM’ campaigns stuck to chief minister Bommai’s government and no amount of rallies and roadshows by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and J.P. Nadda could undo the damage. The electorate refused to believe their lies and be fooled again. And the ‘Modi magic’ evaporated as soon as he left town. Even the furious incantation of ‘Bajrang Bali’ and equating him with Bajrang Dal was seen as a cheap trick of a desperate politician seeking votes in the name of religion.

Of course, Eshwarappa resigned in April 2022 and was denied a ticket, but when Modi visited Mysore for a roadshow on May 6, there was only one prominent leader standing next to him during the Rath Yatra and that was Eshwarappa. Modi stood next to him for about four hours but had no time to question the state authorities on the letters of Santosh Patil or that of D. Kempanna. Nor did he condole the death of Santosh Patil, the national secretary of the Hindu Yuva Vahini. What message was he sending? Whatever it was, the people saw and understood that Modi stood firmly with the corrupt.

Politics of Hindutva

Never has the state of Karnataka, since its formation in 1956, so brazenly discriminated against a minority community through its policies, executive orders and the use of police force. Adding injury to this demonisation of the Muslims were the vigilante forces such as Bajrang Dal and ‘Rama Sene’ that routinely assaulted them in Mangalore. And the Bommai government defended the ‘moral policing’ of Rama Sene on the youth.

Hindu religion has never been so cruel as made out by the politics of Hindutva, for Karnataka has had no history of medieval pillage of temples by invading Muslim armies. So, what historical atrocity were we avenging here? How can the politics of Hindutva get traction and appeal to the voters here? What do the democratic history and political culture of the state tell us?

Tradition and culture of Karnataka politics

Firstly, Karnataka has had a history and tradition of ‘Centrist’ politics, with the state policies being mainly left of centre, which is generally pro-poor and socialist to a large extent.

Although Mahatma Gandhi and Karl Marx have had their share of influence in the past, a more abiding influence has been that of liberal democrats like Jawaharlal Nehru, B.R. Ambedkar and socialists such as Ram Manohar Lohia, Jayaprakash Narayan, and his bitter opponent Indira Gandhi, who too adopted socialist policies when pushed to a corner.

Those influenced by the socialist thought of Lohia were men like Shantaveri Gopala Gowda, K.H. Ranganath, J.H. Patel, S.R. Bommai, Ramakrishna Hegde and of course, Devaraj Urs who carried out the most significant Land Reforms Act. Even H.D. Deve Gowda, who grew up in the same political milieu, is undoubtedly committed to socialism and secularism, though his son is bereft of any such commitment to ideals.

Also read: Karnataka Shows that The Road to Delhi Passes Through States

Fourthly, Karnataka has had an intellectual movement inspired by liberal, secular and universalist ideas prominent in the poetry of Gopalkrishna Adiga, D.R. Bendre and Kuvempu. In the field of literature, it was evident in the writings of U.R. Anantmurthy, Girish Karnad and in the journalism of P. Lankesh, which was carried forward by his daughter Gauri Lankesh till she was killed for her stubborn courage.

Fifthly, there was an important movement led by rationalists and critical thinkers who exposed godmen, myths, mythologies and superstitions, such as Abraham Kovoor and H. Narasimhaiah, then Vice Chancellor of Bangalore University in the mid-1970s. We also had M.M. Kalburgi, Vice Chancellor of Hampi University, a great rationalist who was killed in August 2015 by people opposing rationalism and a questioning mind. To recall their contribution today is very important when fake news, prejudice, superstition, bigotry and hate speeches are the common currency of politics.

Sixth, caste politics have been a far more important factor than religion-based politics. Unlike religion, caste is not seen as an exclusionary or divisive factor in our politics. It is seen as an aggregator or a mobilising force for leaders who promote policies of social justice for their constituents.

Finally, Karnataka has had a long tradition of Dalit protests led by ‘Bandaya’ and ‘Andolan’ movements that have shaped our political, social and literary sensibilities. No politician can afford to ignore the power of the suppressed.

Going back to our electoral politics, in all the 15 assembly elections held since 1952, the Congress party, a Centrist force, got a clear majority in 9 elections and the Janata Dal, another Centrist coalition, got a clear majority in two elections. In the remaining three elections the BJP emerged as the single largest party but without a clear majority. In 2008, the BJP was short by one MLA but formed the government with a few independents. How the BJP formed the government with Yeddyurappa as the chief minister in 2019 is well-known and needs no repetition. What is clear is that the ‘politics of Hindutva’ has never found ‘adequate and sufficient’ support in the state, certainly not enough to cross the line of 113 seats.

More importantly, people here have generally voted for Yeddyurappa rather than the BJP. The ‘Lingayat constituency’ is more powerful than the ‘Hindutva constituency’. And because Yeddyurappa had to appeal to a base larger than the Lingayat vote bank, he followed inclusionary politics that took along other castes, religious groups and regions besides North Karnataka. He, therefore, scrupulously avoided talking the extremist language that threatened other communities or polarised society. And when he was chief minister, he strictly ensured that nobody raised the issues of ‘Halal, hijab, Azān and love jihad’ etc. But forcing his exit, the national wing of the party enforced a Gujarat model and the UP model on the BJP here and paid grievously for it.

The Congress, a centrist coalition, that has always carried with it diverse castes, classes and regions triumphed back to power on its traditional strength of liberal, democratic, secular and socialist values that have had a permanent appeal to the voters here. Finally, it’s a return to sanity, liberalism and moderation in our politics and fraternity in our social relations, hopefully.

Ravi Joshi was formerly in the Cabinet Secretariat.

Why I Contested the Karnataka Assembly Elections

An AAP candidate describes his experience as first-time politician.

“Sir, I have 12 votes in my family, how much will you give us to vote for you?”

“We have 58 homes, 225 votes. On voting day, give us breakfast and lunch, give us money, then all our votes are yours.”

“My family and I have been given Rs 4,000 per voter not to vote in this election by the candidate from another community. He is arranging a bus to take us and others from my community away on a day-trip on voting day so that we don’t vote.”

“All other parties favour the 35 crore people from other communities. Against them, only one man stands to defend the 100 crore people of our community. Support his party, save our nation!” exhorted one of thousands of similar social media messages.

These are just a few of hundreds of encounters I had in the week prior to the Karnataka assembly elections. In the dead of night before voting day, and on voting day itself, as I went around booth by booth, I saw workers of other parties going around and credibly heard about them distributing cash to voters. One party was paying Rs 1,500 per vote, another Rs 2,000 per vote, apparently. Voters who had promised they would vote for honest politics turned their heads away when they saw me and avoided eye contact.

I realised what I knew but hoped had changed, that my constituency, Shivajinagar in Bengaluru was still steeped in the politics of the three Cs – Cash, Community and Caste. That our democracy was still hostage to a group of politicians and parties who perpetuated their collective power in ways that neither reflected the ideals of our Constitution nor promoted the true development of our society towards the Tagore’s dream of “where the mind is without fear and the head is held high…”

Thirty-two months ago, I gave up my career and joined politics to provide a different alternative. An alternative that would not be about these 3 Cs but about one ‘P’: performance. An alternative that would be non-corrupt, that would truly live the Preamble of our Constitution – Liberty, Equality, Justice, Fraternity. An alternative that would genuinely care for everyone. And an alternative that would set and achieve world-class standards of development.

I joined the Aam Aadmi Party because it is a party that strives to provide the same alternative.

Four months ago, I decided to contest this election from Shivajinagar, the constituency my family has lived in for 15 years. People tried to discourage me. I was from the “wrong” community for this constituency, I was told. Money and community politics overrides everything else, I was warned. I might as well be a “foreigner” or an “alien”, I was chided. “After the night before election, the “katal ki raat” when all the cash gets distributed, you won’t even get one vote!” sneered a politically-savvy person from one of the two big parties.

But I started walking almost all the streets of Shivajinagar, meeting everyone, understanding them and getting them to understand me and my party’s message. “How much will you pay us to vote for you?” many people openly asked. “Well, I don’t pay for votes nor does my party. But I will work honestly and tirelessly for you, your families and children and for a transformational development of Shivajinagar,” I replied. Many laughed and went away, the first time. When I came back to them repeatedly over these last 16 weeks, I felt that for many of them, derision and disbelief started turning into doubt, then to curiosity, then to hope. And for some, into faith.

I built a wonderful and diverse team which had people from all communities, ages and strata. It happened naturally, not by design. We visited almost everyone door-to-door. We released an amazing manifesto which, we felt, reflected the wants of all the people of the constituency. It called out my vision of making our Shivajinagar the most world-class, citizen-friendly city-centre in the country. It was not about 3 Cs, it was about performance!

Our campaign was financed by legal donations and was within the limits of the Election Commission rules. We didn’t pay for a single vote. We never played community or caste politics. In spite of that, as we reached the final days of campaigning, observers felt I had emerged as a very strong contender in the race.

On voting day, I saw that cash and community politics had overpowered much of the popularity we had garnered. ”Realpolitik” seemed to have trumped idealism.

However, I am not disheartened. Amongst hundreds of messages and calls I got, thanking me for providing a different alternative, was this short one from a stranger that I will cherish because it is all I really wanted, “Best wishes, I casted my vote for you, Sir!”

This was a fight worth fighting, this is a race worth winning! Sometimes that takes time, but hum hongey kaamyab.

Prakash Nedungadi is an MBA from IIM Calcutta and former President of Madura Garments. After a 38-year career as a Corporate leader, he is contesting from Central Bengaluru ‘s Shivajinagar Constituency on the AAP ticket.

Ten Factors to Remember Amidst the Congress’s Win and BJP’s Defeat in Karnataka

The Congress has trumped the BJP in a win reminiscent of Delhi in 2015 and West Bengal in 2020 – when the Modi-Shah heat was pushed right back by single parties. But it is not as if all is well suddenly with democracy in India.

1. The Congress’s convincing win in the Karnataka elections does not ‘prove’ the good health of Indian democracy just as the fact that most states across the country are ruled by the opposition does not take away from the unfair practices that have been institutionalised in an authoritarian manner under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Karnataka victory is all the more creditable given the conditions under which it was secured and captures the immense anger expressed by the people of the state.

2. The use of the Enforcement Directorate, Central Bureau of Investigation, Income Tax Department and other central agencies to target people associated with the opposition continued unabated during the election campaign, hitting a higher crescendo during the last few days before polling.

If what is being reported is true, it seems that the next CBI director has been picked in a way that is less than transparent, upending the bipartisan principle and evoking past instances of how persons chosen for sensitive posts have ended up subverting institutions and democracy. The ED director’s appointment and unprecedented extensions are a case in point.

3. The Election Commission ignored complaints made by the Congress and others against many statements and actions of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, displaying a bias that could have made things trickier in a closer contest. There has been no comment or notice from the EC so far on Modi’s unequivocal exhortation to voters to use a religious invocation, Jai Bajrang Bali, while casting their vote. The Congress said the call was a violation of election law but the EC has remained silent on this, even as it issued notice to the Congress for a comment about Karnataka’s sovereignty that Sonia Gandhi never even made.

4. The BJP was able to once again deploy funds collected through anonymous electoral bonds – even as the Supreme Court continues to postpone hearing petitions challenging the constitutionality of this kind of opaque political financing. This means that the Karnataka elections were certainly not fair and free. They cost a lot; the win of relatively less well-off candidates was an exception, though Bellary’s B. Nagendra beating a mining baron Bellary brother, BJP’s B. Sreeramulu is commendable.

Also read: Karnataka Shows that The Road to Delhi Passes Through States

5. The corporate-owned big national media continued to act as a propaganda arm of the BJP as Modi expended massive state resources for thinly-veiled official visits just before the imposition of the MCC. Read The Wire’s report on the prime minister’s inauguration-cum-campaigning visits which call for scrutiny.

6. The BJP’s campaign and Modi’s speeches were rabidly communal and vitriolic, from claiming that the Congress party was working with the terrorists, to Amit Shah saying there would be riots if Congress won. The BJP launched its campaign with an election-eve decision to abolish the 4% quota for Muslims – a move the Supreme Court stayed. Asking the voters to shout ‘Jai Bajrang Bali’ after pressing the EVM button was not the only case. Modi also enlisted the help of a polarising propaganda film, The Kerala Story, to appeal to Hindu voters. The ‘face’ of B.S. Bommai was only a fig leaf to what was predominantly an out and out Hindutva campaign.

7. Modi and Shah – the prime minister and Union home minister – ignored the massive (ongoing) violence in Manipur where more than 60 people officially lost their lives and over 35,000 people were rendered homeless because they were busy campaigning for elections. This happened as the two leaders were reading paeans on the importance of a ‘double engine Sarkar’ in Karnataka and staking claim on ‘law and order’. similarly, five Special Forces personnel of the Indian Army lost their lives to militancy in Jammu and Kashmir during this period but their deaths went unacknowledged from Modi who was busy with the Karnataka campaign.

8. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was thrown out of the Lok Sabha after a very dubious legal case by a Gujarat court, which was urgently acted upon by the Lok Sabha Speaker, in a questionable fashion, both in terms of process and form. The aim was clearly to demoralise the Congress party at the start of the campaign, a strategy which clearly backfired.

Watch: Ramachandra Guha On What The Karnataka Election Results Mean

9. Modi’s silence on the Adani corruption issue continued unabated during the campaign, which provided the backdrop and direct link between the ‘40% Sarkara’ moniker for the BJP state government and the Union government. As former governor Satya Pal Malik said in a widely viewed interview to The Wire, “Modi does not particularly hate corruption.”

10. In the run up to the election, the BJP government at the state and Union levels tried its best to intimidate civil society voices by filing frivolous cases and other forms of vindictive action. A case in point was the arrest of the actor Chetan Kumar for his social media post criticising Hindutva and the decision to cancel his Overseas Citizen of India card.

Karnataka: After High Drama and Recount of Postal Ballots, BJP Wins Jayanagar Seat by 16 Votes

The Congress has alleged that BJP leaders illegally entered the counting centre to influence election officials.

New Delhi: While the overall results to the Karnataka assembly elections were clear pretty early in the day on Saturday (May 13), there was one Bengaluru constituency where drama continued well into the night – Jayanagar. Around 1 am, Bharatiya Janata Party candidate C.K. Ramamurthy was declared the winner by just 19 votes.

Earlier in the day, after all rounds of counting were complete, Congress’s Sowmya Reddy had reportedly been declared the winner with a margin of 160 votes. However, BJP leaders including MP Tejasvi Surya and MLA R. Ashok reportedly came to the counting centre and objected to the rejection of 177 postal ballots which the election officials had found to be technically flawed, The Hindu reported.

The BJP demanded a recount of the postal ballots, and the Election Commission agreed, according to Deccan Herald. Reports say there were multiple recounts.

This created a ruckus at the counting centre, the RV Institute of Management in Jayanagar. Congress leaders including D.K. Shivakumar and Ramalinga Reddy staged a demonstration outside the premises, saying the recount was uncalled for. Supporters of both parties shouted slogans and there was heavy police presence, including top police brass, The News Minute reported.

The Congress has alleged that BJP leaders Surya and Ashok illegally entered the counting centre to influence election officials. “Even though Ms. Reddy, the Congress candidate from Jayanagar constituency, achieved a victory, on the pretext of recounting, the election officials have tried to twist the results. Opposing this and the move to let Mr. Ashok and Mr. Surya, who are not agents, illegally enter the counting centre, we held a protest opposite the counting centre,” Shivakumar said in a tweet.

According to the final update on the Election Commission website, Ramamurthy got 57,297 votes to Reddy’s 57,591.

Watch: Ramachandra Guha On What The Karnataka Election Results Mean

What do the results reveal about the mood of Karnataka? And does it offer insights into the mood of the country?

In an exclusive interview, the highly regarded political commentator and historian of modern India, Ramachandra Guha, both analyses and gives his personal response to the Karnataka election results.

What does it tell us about the strengths and weaknesses of the Congress and BJP? What does it suggest about the 2024 national elections? How does it reflect on Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi? What does it reveal about the mood of Karnataka? And does it offer insights into the mood of the country?

Why the Karnataka Election Results Are a Big Jolt for the BJP

The Congress has proved it can win a head-to-head battle with the BJP despite the saffron party using Modi as the headliner of its campaign.

The much awaited Karnataka results are in. And Bajrang Bali seems to be not so unhappy with the grand old party as the Noida media would like us to believe. The Congress has not just emerged as the single-largest party by besting the BJP, it is on the path to securing a comfortable majority, thus killing any hopes the BJP may have had of horse-trading its way to power. The Congress is winning more than twice as many seats as the BJP and is leading over the “largest party in the world” by a whopping seven percentage points in terms of vote share.

Even as the shielding of Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the blame for the Karnataka defeat gathers steam (despite Modi carefully centralising the campaign), even as the tectonic impact of the result on Indian politics begin to be undermined, make no mistake, the Karnataka verdict is one of the most stinging setbacks for Modi’s regime.

The loss in Karnataka severely dents BJP’s claim of being a truly pan-India party. It has lost power in the only South Indian state it ruled. Now, the BJP rules over no state in southern India and is reduced to largely ruling only Hindi-speaking or -understanding states (with the exception of Northeastern states with the tendency of aligning with the party that rules at the Centre). This lays to dust the carefully propagated image of the invincibility and the almightiness of Modi’s rule.

A shot in the arm for the Congress

Since his rise, Modi and his people have proclaimed aspirations of realising a Congress-mukt Bharat. It’s a dream that has long driven the Sangh parivar, guided as it is by a visceral hatred of Congress’s long history, undeniable contributions to India’s freedom struggle and deep presence across the length and breadth of the nation (without being bounded by BJP’s language barrier). For a time being, as Congress lost election after election, this dream seemed close to reality. But with the Congress handing the BJP back-to-back defeats and snatching two state governments from it within nearly a year, the BJP’s dream of a Congress-mukt Bharat has suffered serious blows.

The victory in Karnataka comes at a perfect juncture for the BJP’s prime rival, otherwise facing an existential struggle.

First, it hands over to the Congress an economic powerhouse of a state (Karnataka is India’s fourth largest economy) that can help ease its resource draught. This will enable it to put up a decent fight in Lok Sabha 2024.

Second, the Karnataka victory is Congress’s first head-to-head win against the BJP since the 2019 election in any major state election. This will significantly boost Congress’s morale and shift the momentum in its favour at just the right time.

Third, the narrative that the Congress can’t win against the BJP will face fresh scrutiny as the Karnataka model will provide the Congress with a different way to contest elections, with the emergence of new election managers with a successful model of localising elections, managing intra-party rivalry, ticket distribution, stirring anti incumbency (the brilliant PayCM campaign ), all tried and tested in Karnataka.

A personal defeat for Modi’s brand of politics

The Karnataka election saw Modi leading the BJP campaign from the front, sidelining all local strongmen, leading many stalwarts to leave the BJP. In fact, so immersed was Modi in the Karnataka campaigning that burning Manipur could also not merit his attention. Modi’s imprint was not just in the campaign time he devoted and talks around his “ashirwad” were BJP to win, but also in deciding to focus the BJP’s election narrative on divisive issues like Bajrang Bali and The Kerala Story, apart from the usual dose of self pity.

In contrast, BJP’s much derided “Pappu” – Rahul Gandhi – charted an altogether different course. The local leadership was empowered, defections from the party minimised, focus imparted to bread and butter issues such as Nandini and Pay CM, advanced mobilisation and ideological clarity was ensured through the Bharat Jodo Yatra that rejuvenated local party units, ensured unity and mobilised minority voters behind Congress (at the cost of JD(S)).

The sweeping victory of the Congress seems to have established that “Pappu can dance, saala” and like the hare and the tortoise story, Rahul the tortoise seems to have outwitted Modi the hare.

Also read: Why Congress’s Victory in Karnataka Is Particularly Significant

The BJP’s loss of Karnataka in such a spectacular fashion will weaken its 2024 Lok Sabha prospects on many counts.

First, BJP’s majority of 20-odd seats was built on the back of a sweep in Karnataka, Bihar and Maharashtra, apart from it winning over 90% of seats in the Hindi belt (and allied) states of UP, MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, HP, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand. Thus the prospect of the BJP increasing its tally in the Hindi belt is slim. And with the JD(U) and Shiv Sena no longer with it, already BJP’s chances of repeating its performances in Bihar and Maharashtra were bleak. Now, with its crushing loss in Karnataka, the BJP’s hope of repeating its tally from Karnataka too have suffered a serious setback, thus making it harder to win the same kind of majority in Lok Sabha 2024.

Second, the BJP, aware of its narrow pathway to a majority, was hoping to expand this pathway through better performances in Telangana and Tamil Nadu. But with the loss of neighbouring Karnataka, the BJP suffers a serious narrative setback in these states too.

Finally, the Congress victory in a head-to-head battle with the BJP in the first state to go to polls after the Bharat Jodo Yatra may be an indicator of renewed Congress performance in the states, thus endangering BJP’s prospects of a majority still further.

Praneet Pathak studies marketing at IMT and is a keen observer of Indian democracy.