In an interview with Karan Thapar for The Wire, Gideon Rachman, the chief foreign affairs commentator of Financial Times, discusses the implications and consequences of the present crisis in the Middle East amidst the escalating war between Israel and Hamas. He speaks with specific reference to Benjamin Netanyahu, Hamas, the Arab countries of the Middle East and the rest of the world, particularly Ukraine.
Below is the list of questions that are posed to Rachman.
1) Let’s start with Benjamin Netanyahu before we broaden our discussion and talk about the other people and organisations affected by the Israel-Hamas conflict. In an op-ed for your paper Financial Times yesterday (October 9) you said: “Netanyahu’s entire strategy towards the Palestinians now looks like a failure.” Is that because his aim was to shrink the conflict with the Palestinians and push it to one side as he got on with building relationships with the Arab countries of the region? But now the Hamas attack has forced the Palestinian issue back to the centre of the Middle East agenda in a way that it simply can’t be sidelined or diminished any more.
2) The question is what does Netanyahu do now? He’s promised a massive retaliation which is already underway. But the problem is, as you write: “The Israeli government does not yet have any vision that goes beyond killing Hamas leaders.” So beyond the principle revenge is sweet is there a danger this could exacerbate the crisis rather than create political space for him?
3) Yesterday, according to the Times of Israel, Netanyahu said: “We are going to change the Middle East.” Is that the sort of threat or challenge that could draw Hezbollah and, more importantly, Iran, more directly into this conflict? So far Hezbollah has only fired a few rockets and the US says there is “no direct evidence of Iran’s role”. So is Netanyahu inviting trouble when he says he’s going to change the Middle East?
4) One more question about Netanyahu. This time it’s about his personal future. On October 8, Haaretz, possibly the most influential paper in Israel, squarely blamed him for what it calls “the disaster that befell Israel” and it specifically accused his government “of annexation and dispossession” and his foreign policy of ignoring the existence and rights of Palestinians. On October 9, it warned against “campaigns of vengeance and the commission of war crimes.” So even if in the immediate term politicians and the country unite behind Netanyahu, is the end of his political career also in sight?
5) Let’s come to Hamas. Although it’s clearly brought down the wrath of Israel on the people of Gaza, who are not only being badly bombed but denied electricity, water, fuel and food supplies, can they claim credit for two things? Restoring the Palestinian issue to the centre of the Middle East agenda and, perhaps, replacing the Palestine Authority and Fatah as the main representative of the Palestine cause? Or would you disagree?
6) The other question about Hamas is how is it viewed by the Arab governments of the Middle East. Has this dramatic action won a measure of respect or only increased their apprehensions and concerns?
7) Let’s come to the countries of the region. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has said Saudi Arabia “stands by the Palestine people to achieve their legitimate rights to a decent life.” It’s hard to see how he could have said anything else. But where does that leave the prospect of a Saudi-Israel peace deal which the Joe Biden administration is so keen to broker? Is it dead in the water for the foreseeable future? Or is it only paused for a short duration?
8) Very predictably the American government has announced its rock-solid unwavering support for Israel and Biden has rushed the US aircraft carrier Gerald Ford and other ships into the area presumably in a message to Iran and Hezbollah to exercise restraint. Is there a limit to how far Washington can go without adversely affecting its relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE? After all, they are majority Muslim nations where public sentiment is not with Israel and they won’t like this display of American might.
9) Now other than Israel, Gaza’s nearest neighbour is Egypt. But Egypt was also the first Arab country to recognise Israel almost 45 years ago. But that’s not a policy that’s popular with the Egyptian people and the killing of Israeli terrorists in Alexandria has underlined that. How do you see Egypt handling this crisis on its borders?
10) Finally, what impact will this have on Ukraine? So far it’s been the single focus of American and Western concern. That clearly is no longer the case. So has the Hamas-Israel crisis diminished the importance of Ukraine or, at least, reduced the amount of time and resources Washington can give to it?
11) One last question: How do you read the response from Beijing and Moscow? Beijing has called for de-escalation and a renewed focus on a two-nation solution. Moscow hasn’t said very much at all. Neither has taken an explicit stand on any one side. What do you make of that?
