The US-led post-war order which was founded at least in part on a fundamental social purpose at home and internationally, is failing, particularly under the Trump administration.
The 1930s ‘New Deal’ at home was built around the idea that the state – allied with civil society including organised labour – had a decisive role in the provision of domestic economic and social security if it was to ensure political stability in an era of mass unemployment, rapidly-advancing fascism, and the increasing attractions of communism to labour movements across the world.
The US has now almost completely withdrawn from its social strategy and is facing state failure at home much as it has undermined and aided the destruction or decomposition of states across the Middle East. And just as America’s individual states are cooperating with one another to fill the federal vacuum, other regional and global actors are moving into the soft power spaces vacated by the US.
Consequently, the world is moving into a dangerous transitional phase.
New Deal at home, extended globally after 1945
The New Deal idea, and institutional forms, were extended to the world after 1945, either through the Marshall Plan for Western Europe, programmes for foreign aid for economic development in the post-colonial world, under the umbrella of the Bretton Woods architecture of the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and World Health Organisation. There was a pooling of sovereignty, a recognition that despite the importance of the nation-state and national interests, world peace and prosperity required international cooperation, a body of rules and laws, dispute settlement forums, diplomacy, and democratic spaces to debate world issues.
Recovery and reconstruction or development emphasised the provision of public goods – education, training, healthcare, jobs, welfare – to nurture the conditions for private sector investment, to build business confidence, strong interdependent economies, and popular political legitimacy. The state emerged as the champion of a legitimate order dedicated to providing social and economic security in broad terms.
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That social purpose has, under the Trump administration, been replaced by a strategy of coercive transactionalism under the banner of ‘America First’, the weaponisation of every dimension of US power.
Failing liberal internationalism – the emergence of new dynamics in regional unity
Symptoms of this loss of social purpose abound within the US, and across the world, including in the tragedies unfolding in the Middle-East. The US now faces unprecedented threats to its influence in the region which may not be easily reversible given the region’s shifting dynamics, accelerated by the politics of COVID-19. America’s regional position and role are changing, maybe even declining in significance, as regional powers realign, and as China and Iran’s positions become stronger.
The ‘America First’ policies of Trump have been at odds with the traditional US global leadership role that relied on the US to maintain security, economic prosperity and stability in countries and regions around the world. Trump, however, has pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Accord, the Human Rights Council, the Iran nuclear agreement, and questioned the value of international cooperation through the UN and NATO.
Most recently, the US declined to participate in a European Union-led international conference to forge cooperation and pool resources to find a vaccine for the coronavirus; neither did Trump offer any funds for the collective pot of $8 billion to fund a coronavirus vaccine. The administration is playing the politics of “vaccine nationalism” rather than promoting cooperation even during a global pandemic.
The US dealt a stunning blow to internationalism by cutting funding for the World Health Organisation during the current pandemic, despite opposition from core European allies. The WHO is expected to lead the coordination of resources, medical supplies and solutions, but has, in fact, been largely ignored and overlooked in the pandemic, as it struggles to organise and provide solutions. The customary norms that were born out of hopeful internationalism are disintegrating, leaving nation-states relying on their own resources and seeking allies to contain the crisis.
Trend in motion before COVID-19
Even before the pandemic, however, regional power relations were changing. The Kuala Lumpur Summit of December 2019 signalled a shifting terrain in Asia and the Middle-East as powerful Muslim nation-states contemplated and discussed alternatives to the Saudi-led Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Iran, Turkey, Qatar and Malaysia met outside OIC auspices to discuss new strategies for the Islamic powers in world politics, a move denounced by Saudi Arabia, which pressured Indonesia and Pakistan into withdrawing. However, the summit saw a bold President Erdogan of Turkey, who’s nation suffers under US sanctions, bemoaning a lack of Muslim states’ representation in the UN Security Council, stating the world was “bigger than five countries”.
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More worryingly for the US, Iran’s President Rouhani issued a rallying call for Muslim nations to oppose the “economic terror” of the US and the hegemony of the dollar in the global economy. In a clear shift from the existing positions of US leadership around the dollar, the summit focused on economic development based on an independent Muslim world, and an independent global monetary system with the possibility of a virtual currency replacing the dollar. The host of the event, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, denounced sanctions and praised Qatar for undermining the boycott as imposed by other Arab states, and commended Iran on its handling of draconian US sanctions.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and King Salman of Saudi Arabia (L) are pictured during a family photo session at the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Istanbul Summit in Istanbul, Turkey April 14, 2016. Credit: Reuters/Murad Sezer
US vacuum in the Middle-East and Iran’s increased regional influence
Leaders in the Middle-East who were accustomed to reaching out to the US first are now acting independently and collectively, as the international co-operative instruments of the US-led liberal order seem absent and ineffective during the crisis. The developments of the last two decades have seen the US lose influence in the region, with Iraq relying heavily on Iran for political and military support, especially in the fight against ISIS. Anti-US resentment in Iraq was evident in its parliament’s vote to expel US troops from Iraq in January 2020. COVID-19 has further bolstered Iranian soft power in the Middle-East, filling a vacuum of leadership and inaction from the US, as pro-Iran militia groups in Iraq and Lebanon step in to tackle the pandemic.
The US approach to Iran, its failure to lead effectively by example, and its attitude to the WHO has forced Middle-Eastern states to act individually and in unity to overcome the crisis, with swiftly implemented lockdowns, curfews and other restrictions which have helped to contain the virus. Yet, the situation looks particularly alarming for Yemen, where the WHO predicts huge numbers of deaths, exacerbated by a lack of testing equipment and the authority needed to mitigate the spread.
Additionally, the WHO has had to cut back on its programs around the world – in particular Yemen – due to the US cut in funding. At the same time, the pandemic has not stopped the fighting intensifying in the war-torn nation despite Saudi Arabia’s unilateral announcement of a ceasefire, as fighting enters its sixth year. Yet, the US continues to back Saudi military positions and strategies in Yemen.
A huge blow was dealt to Syria when the UN Security Council questionably ended its authorisation of aid from Iraq to Syria as two-million Syrians who rely on WHO and UN aid were left unable to deal with a COVID-19 outbreak.
Iran is emerging as more influential with a deep political and military influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen – even as it faces the challenges of COVID-19; it has the second-highest infection rate in the region behind Turkey, and an economy shattered by sanctions and the inaccessibility of economic aid. In denying Iran much needed sanctions relief, the US recently declared that the $5 billion in international financial relief Iran seeks from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for COVID-19 responses will instead be directed to proxies pursuing violent means in enforcing their will in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.
The American state is failing itself, intensifying pressure on Iran
As the world continues to battle the deadly effects of the pandemic, some nations are suffering more than others, especially the US – recording the highest number of cases and deaths in the world – epitomising a failed approach domestically. President Trump failed to take the necessary early steps to reduce the coronavirus’ spread. The administration’s attention is now shifting to China as part of an election strategy of deflection and the politics of the “yellow peril”.
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His administration is considering denying federal aid to manage the pandemic to “sanctuary cities” that defy Trump’s immigration policies including unaccompanied children’s refugee rights. All the while, Trump has openly backed extreme right-wing, including neo-Nazi, armed protestors demanding states reopen their economies by ending lockdown measures prematurely which would violate the White House’s own stated guidelines. Trump’s domestic politics is the politics of coercion.
Domestic politics no longer stops at the water’s edge. Trump is exporting his strategies and methods. Consequently, Trump has been criticised for persevering with sanctions on Iran. Numerous US politicians signalled disagreement with Trump’s Iran policy, including former Democratic presidential candidates Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders who wrote an open letter to the Trump administration asking for sanctions relief for Iran amid the pandemic.
Even the New York Times published an editorial asking for the lifting of sanctions as deeper questions about the legality and legitimacy of US sanctions increased around the world. Despite those concerns, however, right-wing think tanks, including the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies (FDD) and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) have aggressively lobbied the US to escalate militarily towards Iran, with increased sanctions despite the pandemic, demands echoed in the Wall Street Journal.
Growing international support for Iran amid COVID-19
The US treatment of Iran has done little to inspire other nations, who have bolstered their support for the Middle-East’s second hardest-hit nation. From February 28 to March 30, over 30 countries from Europe, Asia and the Middle-East sent medical aid worth tens of millions of dollars to Iran – and the list of donors itself is a telling story. Among the aid donors were Germany, France and the UK who pledged $5.6million in financial aid on March 2, and on March 30 exported medical supplies to Iran using the INSTEX financial transaction for the first time.
In January 2019, the three European powers launched INSTEX, which stands for Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges, to guarantee that Iran receives the economic benefits promised by the 2015 nuclear deal – which were directly threatened after the Trump administration withdrew from the deal in 2018. Another key provider of aid to Iran is the UAE, a massive donor of aid in the Arab world, putting aside its diplomatic grievances with Iran to prioritise the protection of human life over political tension.
China, Iran and the BRI
Perhaps the biggest and most noteworthy aid provider to Iran is China. Included in China’s aid package to Iran was PPE, testing kits, life-supporting medical equipment and also training on how to overcome COVID-19 related challenges.
Unsurprisingly, this has done wonders for China’s soft power in the region as its strategies are perceived as helpful, adding to its regional role through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to connect five continents through land and sea corridors. With 138 countries already involved in global land and sea infrastructure, there are significant players who have subscribed to the Chinese strategy of development including Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Egypt and the UAE – all in the top 10 rankings for BRI-linked projects domestically.
US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Photo: Reuters/Thomas Peter
The BRI has also extended to other developing states, for example, the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). Despite being the home of the virus, and although the building of the BRI may be slowed by COVID-19 due to border closures, China is still making significant in-roads on a global scale. Not only did China lead in the direction of how to contain the virus, but it has also switched its focus to deliver fast-tracked aid in an unmatched global response.
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Alarmingly for the Trump administration’s Middle-East policy, long-term US ally Saudi Arabia has the second-highest value of BRI-linked projects with a staggering $195.7 billion and the fourth-highest number in terms of volume, with 106 projects.
The US is gradually losing its position as the most active and influential player in the region, as China increases its influence. If the pandemic continues with the same vacuum of US leadership and aid, China may find itself with new long-term partners in what could manifest as a China-oriented regional order, as intensified by its diplomatic and humanitarian efforts.
The power dynamics of the Middle-East are changing and the US has less influence in shaping those changes, especially by electing to engage by coercive means alone. Indeed, these changes are occurring because of previous US military and other interference. US failures under Trump’s leadership are proving both divisive and deadly in the pandemic.
COVID-19 is a global issue that requires a global response. An unwise persistence with coercive policies amid a global crisis has made the US less significant as new powers emerge and align in the Middle-East. The shift away from US dominance towards new alliances is inspired partly by historic anti-US sentiment, but more so by a spectacular failure of what was once the essence of American exceptionalism: the provision of humanitarian aid.
Trump’s ‘America First’ strategy is laid bare for all to see: it targets opponents at home and abroad regardless of the cost to life.
Dr Bamo Nouri is a Visiting Lecturer at City, University of London, an independent investigative journalist and writer with interests in American foreign policy and the international and domestic politics of the Middle East. He tweets @Bamonouri.
Inderjeet Parmar is professor of international politics at City, University of London, a visiting professor at LSE IDEAS, and visiting fellow at the Rothermere American Institute at the University of Oxford. He is a columnist at The Wire.