In the last month or so, there has been some striking technology news from China. First was the low-altitude flight of two new combat aircraft, reportedly development models of sixth generation fighters. Considering that the US first flew its sixth-generation Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter in 2020, this was a substantial achievement the country.
The day after this news was flashed around the world, there was another item which did not receive that much coverage, but was also significant – the launch of a huge Type 076 amphibious assault ship that can double as a light aircraft carrier. Uniquely, the aircraft aboard could be launched using an electro-magnetic launch (EMALS) system which the US had installed in one of its large aircraft carriers in 2015 and was followed by China installing it in its newest carrier, Fujian. The system makes the launch of aircraft from ships much easier and places less stress on the air frame.
Last week an experimental nuclear fusion reactor in China triggered a great deal of comment by maintaining its operational state for over 17 minutes – a new world record. This is a significant step towards the goal of realising a fusion-based nuclear reactor in the near future. Around the same time, evidence emerged that China was building a large laser-ignited fusion research centre akin to the American National Ignition Facility which can be used to develop and test thermonuclear nuclear weapon designs.
None of these developments, however, generated the kind of surprise and shock that DeepSeek – the Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company that develops open source large language models – did with the release of its first free chatbot app based on their DeepSeek-R1 model.
By Monday, it had surpassed ChatGPT as the most downloaded free app in the iOS App store in the US, leading to a spectacular crash of Nvidia’s share price. Nvidia is known to be the principal provider of specialized chips used for AI applications. DeepSeek developed the model that many AI experts are saying is akin to that of US OpenAI and Meta even though it used far fewer and less advanced Nvidia chips.
Also read: DeepSeek: Two Questions at the Heart of the AI Offering that Has Rattled the World
They trained their model for a reported $6 million as compared to the $100 million that OpenAI’s GPT-4 cost. Its system also uses a fraction of the computing power, and electric power, that Western AI engines consume.
DeepSeek’s rise has shown that China is managing to take technological leaps despite western restrictions on technology exports, particularly in the area of AI. It also overturns the facile assumption that the US has an unassailable supremacy in the area of AI which would be further solidified by spending billions of dollars. The big danger here is that instead of smothering China’s R&D progress, US restrictions may end up stimulating it.
There is no innate Chinese genius behind this achievement, only the long-term obsession of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to turn China in to the foremost world power. As in India, there is a desire to regain the glory of the past. But the Chinese focus is on reimagining the present and future rather than dwelling on the past.
From the very beginning of its opening up process in the 1990s, Beijing’s growth strategy has sought to create an aatmanirbhar China. Over the decades, China has bought, stolen, coerced technology from foreign companies, but equally systematically, it has set up a parallel system of laboratories and institutions to absorb or “re-innovate” this technology. A crucial tier of this project has been to obtain knowhow by sending an entire generation of Chinese young men to study abroad. Simultaneously, the country has used programmes to lure foreign technology specialists to seed Chinese institutions with knowledge and skills.
This strategy is now yielding results and has persuaded the CPC that instead of graduating from the manufacturing revolution to advance in the area of services, China is cutting out a new path of taking its manufacturing to a higher technological level to rival the West.
It is no secret that China is going through a spate of problems – its birth rate is declining, house prices are falling and some provinces are in the grip of deflation.
The future plan was outlined by Xi Jinping in 2024’s National People’s Congress session when he spoke of the need to unleash “new productive forces” to deal with the situation. In essence this means the application of higher science and technology to its manufacturing prowess. This requires a three-pronged movement: first, the replication of technologies that are likely to be restricted by the west; second, the invention of entirely new technologies—photonic computing, brain computer interfaces, nuclear fusion and telemedicine. And third, emphasizing the spending of money on scientists under the age of 35.
Last year, Bloomberg put out a special report noting that China has achieved global leadership position in five key technologies—UAVs, solar panels, graphene, high-speed rail, and electrical vehicles and batteries. It went on to add that at the same time it had achieved a “competitive” status in seven technologies like semiconductors, AI, robots, machine tools, large tractors, drugs, and LNG carriers. The only technology it was still “behind” was in commercial aircraft.
The reason for this is probably that China sought a tie-up with a US commercial aircraft manufacturing company, McDonnell Douglass, which subsequently sank. However, in 2023, Beijing introduced the Comac C919 narrow-body airliner into service domestically. Currently, though it is powered by a CFM (US-French) engine.
The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
