Is Nepal seeing the emergence of a new political force that poses a significant threat to the established political parties? That seems to the indication from the results of three constituencies where a by-election for the House of Representatives (HoR), which were held on April 23. The Rastriya Swantra Party (RSP), which was formed just 10 months ago, won two of the seats. Although the results may not accurately reflect the national sentiment, it indicates that the party, whose leader is the popular television anchor Rabi Lamichhane, is gaining ground.
In two constituencies, Tanahu-1 and Chitwan-2, RSP’s candidates Swarnim Wagle and Lamichhane himself won with an unexpectedly high margin. Wagle, a renowned economist who severed ties with Nepali Congress (NC) just ahead of the election, bagged 34,919 votes, while his closest rival Nepali Congress candidate Govinda Bhattarai secured 20,922 votes.
In Chitwan-2, Lamichhane secured 54,176 votes, while his closest rival Jit Narayan Shrestha secured 11,214. However, RSP did not perform well in Bara-2, where Upendra Yadav of the Janata Samajbadi Party, a member of the ruling coalition, won by a margin of 5,081 votes. The Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) was relegated to the third position in all three constituencies.
This is the second time that the RSP has surprised its political opponents, after punching above its weight in the national elections of November 2022. The RSP was able to secure 20 seats in the HoR, and with growing dissatisfaction among the people towards the incumbent parties, the result in the by-elections was expected.
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The by-election result indicates a clear upward trend in the popularity of the RSP, which poses a significant threat to the major parties such as the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, and CPN (Maoist Center) which have been in power for over three decades.
Resentment towards mainstream political parties
The poor performance of the major political parties has left people frustrated, leading them to seek either a reform in these parties or an alternative political force that can drive the country towards stability, economic growth, and progress. This resentment towards the established parties has further intensified due to poor service delivery, worsening economic conditions, and the rising cost of living. According to government data, every day more than 1,500 Nepali youth go abroad in search of jobs. In the past nine months, according to government data, more than a half-million people have taken labour permission to work in Gulf countries.
Consumer-price inflation stands at 8% which is choking the lower class of society. Since its formation on December 25 last year, the government led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been unable to improve service delivery, curb inflation, or alleviate poverty. The government’s failure to create new jobs has resulted in an increase in unemployment rates. Additionally, the Dahal-led government is yet to finalise its cabinet formation, providing a favourable environment for new parties like the RSP, which gained popularity by campaigning against major parties’ poor governance and failures.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal, or ‘Prachanda’, Nepal’s PM. Photo: Twitter/@cmprachanda
Over the past few years, political parties have weakened the key state institutions. The check-and-balances among the key state institutions have been severely compromised. Take the case of the Supreme Court. If major parties feel that the SC is going to deliver a verdict against them, they move an impeachment motion against the Chief Justice. In February last year, parties registered an impeachment motion against Chief Justice Cholendra S.J.B. Rana but did not take any initiative to settle the case until Rana retired – keeping the judiciary in limbo for a long time.
Till now, parties have not taken any initiatives to appoint the chief justice. The judiciary has become so politicised that people’s trust in it is dwindling. This is just one illustration of the broader problem of political parties having control over all state mechanisms, leading to their obsolescence due to excessive political influence. Corruption continued to thrive with political actors providing protection and involvement in major corruption cases, while anti-graft bodies are hesitant to investigate them.
Emergence of RSP
Amid such a scenario, Nepal held its national elections in November last year. In the six months since the elections, major parties invested their time and energy in either creating or breaking coalitions, doing very little for the people, leading to further dismay.
More than that, the same set of leaders have been in charge of the major parties since the 1990s. Only a few youth leaders have been appointed, that too to nominal positions and hence do not have much influence on the party’s decision-making. Although the formation of a strong government in 2018 kindled hopes of achieving stability and development, the dissolution of the House by K.P. Oli in December 2020 threw the country back into a cycle of political instability.
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When Lamichhane was a TV anchor, his programme showed the plight of many Nepali migrant workers who were cheated or duped abroad, and played a role in rescuing them. He also took several initiatives to address the plights of migrant workers. As a result, he enjoys support from Nepalis living abroad, who urged their family members to vote for RSP candidates in both the November and by-poll elections. In light of the failures of the major parties, people at the grassroots level believe that Lamichhane could perform well if given the opportunity to lead the government. This is because even though he is outside the government, Lamichhane takes action to address the problems faced by ordinary people.
While the RSP is a new and untested political party, it has managed to attract a significant number of well-educated individuals, including economist Wagle. In the past, RSP’s founder Lamichhane had faced legal challenges related to his citizenship and holding dual passports, which resulted in him losing his position as a member of the HoR and his home ministry portfolio. In the lead-up to the by-election, an audio tape purportedly featuring RSP lawmaker Dhaka Ram Shrestha requesting funds for the party from a businessman was made public. The party has removed Shrestha from the party and parliament but there was no impact of those cases in the by-elections.
Although the by-election result is not expected to affect the coalition government, it serves as a warning to the major parties. Currently, RSP is supporting the Dahal-led government, but according to its leaders, it may withdraw its support in the future. Analysts suggest that if the heavyweight political parties fail to reform promptly, they are likely to face more electoral setbacks in the upcoming elections.
The traditional parties have acknowledged the need to reform, but their next steps remain to be seen. While this may prompt a debate on leadership changes within the parties, any outcome in that direction is unlikely given that the current chairs were elected only a year ago. To address criticisms, they may introduce some youth leaders into the party structure and initiate reform projects. Meanwhile, the pressure is on the 10-party coalition government led by Dahal to deliver results. If it fails, the possibility of street protest and movement cannot be ruled out.
Kamal Dev Bhattarai is a political analyst based in Kathmandu.