After the lower house of parliament was dissolved in August, a caretaker government under Prime Minister Anwaar ul-Haq Kakar was set up to oversee Pakistan’s general elections scheduled for November 2023. But the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) said it needed more time to redraw constituencies based on the country’s population census, and national elections were deferred till February 8, 2024.
Now the upper house of the country’s parliament has passed a non-binding resolution demanding a further delay in the general elections. With the constitutional timeframe for holding elections having passed, people are asking whether they will be held at all. Indeed in Pakistan’s case, predicting anything beyond a few months is hazardous. What remains certain is uncertainty.
The resolution seeking a delay in the elections, tabled by independent Senator Dilawar Khan on January 5 with only 15 lawmakers in attendance cited the cold weather in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, serious threats to the lives of politicians like JUI-F chief Fazlur Rehman, the spike in attacks on security forces and citizens, and the resurgence of COVID-19. The Senate Secretariat later issued a notification regarding the resolution’s approval which was roundly rejected by all leading political parties. Although the house failed to meet the quorum requirements for such a move, the Supreme Court was subsequently approached to declare the resolution illegal and act against its backers. Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Senator Sherry Rehman declared that the party wanted timely elections; ‘standing firmly against’, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) labelled it a backdoor conspiracy to postpone elections; and Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) Senator Mushtaq Ahmed submitted a fresh resolution in the upper house, emphasising the need to ensure the timely conduct of the polls.
Ruling out any possibility of boycotting the polls, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Barrister Gohar Khan, told reporters that the party wanted elections on the given date of February 8. Prior to this in an opinion piece carried in The Economist by Imran Khan from Adiala Jail in Rawalpindi, the 71 year old deposed premier expressed fears that the scheduled elections might not take place at all, alluding to his ‘engineered’ removal from power in 2022 by the establishment ‘under pressure from America’ and the lack of ‘level playing field’ in the elections. The article’s most exigent claim however is that Nawaz Sharif “has struck a deal with the establishment whereby it will support his acquittal and throw its weight behind him in the upcoming elections”. Whether or not the article was ghosted, given that Imran Khan is in sequestered incarceration and not even allowed to appear in court, the fact that his message was relayed has piqued the establishment.
Echoing a similar thought, Dawn journalist Zahid Hussain equates the upcoming election to yet another ‘process of selection,’ in which the most brazen pre-poll manipulation is underway, making, “the legitimacy of the democratic transition extremely doubtful. What is happening now has perhaps not been witnessed even under military rule. The dismantling of the failed project has been turned into an exercise in vengeance.”
With uncertainty marking the political atmosphere, electioneering is yet to hit full throttle. Party leaders aren’t holding the kind of rallies or making the kind of appearances typical of pre-election campaigning. In the run up to the 2018 elections, it was the PML-N that was being hounded by the military establishment. This time around, the party doesn’t appear to have moved beyond the board meeting phase and its election manifesto is yet to be released. In a role-swap with Imran Khan, a redeemed Nawaz Sharif is the apparent favourite of the army, which is probably why the PML-N has yet to start campaigning in earnest.
Amidst speculation over differences with his father Asif Ali Zardari, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari has been appealing to make “old politicians sit at home,” and select him, expressing that he wishes to “become the laadla (favourite) of the public.”
The PTI has fallen out of favour with the ‘establishment’ because of its involvement in the May 9 unrest. Military courts are set to prosecute PTI supporters who were involved in riots and violence. While the PTI has fielded the highest number of candidates for the upcoming general elections, almost 90 percent of nominations from important leaders failed to stand the ECP scrutiny exercise that ended on December 30. The nomination papers of several of its election candidates were rejected, including that of Imran Khan’s ‘No. 2’, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, from three constituencies of Multan, south Punjab. After annulling the PTI’s intra-party election, the ECP also stripped the party of its electoral ‘bat’ symbol. The PTI’s hyped virtual manifesto launch on January 7 was trammeled by a blackout of social media sites reported throughout Pakistan. Nevertheless, reminiscent of its sweep through Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the 2018 elections, its popularity appears to intact.
The ECP’s credibility took a hit when it failed to hold elections in May 2023 in Punjab and K-P, and later in November 2023, and its current discriminatory attitude towards the PTI prevents a genuine code of conduct from manifesting itself. But all political parties in Pakistan have had to face this at some point. The political uncertainty weighs on the economy. Foreign firms are reported to have divested their assets or temporarily reduced or halted their operations in Pakistan since 2022. State-owned commercial entities incurred staggering losses amounting to PKR 1.4 trillion in 2021 and ‘22. Proposed strategies all seem to be looking for injection foreign funds as a panacea for the economic malaise.
No matter which political party’s rise to power is manipulated, a certain ennui in Pakistan’s political process can be detected. Being championed by the ‘establishment’ brings its own set of challenges, primarily the problem of legitimacy, leaving political parties struggling to articulate their own strategy. Meanwhile tough decisions for restructuring the economy and governance elude Pakistan.
Vaishali Basu Sharma is a strategic and economic affairs analyst.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.