New Delhi: Was Prime Minister Narendra Modi contemplating a visit to Pakistan in April 2021 in the aftermath of the two countries agreeing to a ceasefire agreement? The question – which has been doing the rounds since January when two Pakistani journalists, Hamid Mir and Javed Chaudhry, wrote columns about it – has once again become a topic for speculation after Mir repeated the claim on Saturday, April 22. In remarks that have gone viral on social media in Pakistan, Mir also presented the proposed Modi visit as a source of great tension between the then Imran Khan government and General Qamar Javed Bajwa – Pakistan’s army chief at the time – who had apparently rooted for the event.
In a conversation with journalist Nasim Zehra on her video show, Mir linked the idea of the Indian prime minister visiting Pakistan to the Pakistani judiciary’s insistence on holding elections and the role played by General Bajwa in trying to have better ties with India – which was not accepted by the Imran Khan government.
More controversially, from the Pakistani military’s point of view, Mir and Zehra disclosed that they had been part of a briefing for journalists by General Bajwa in which he spoke of the Pakistan army’s inability to fight a war with India in the event of hostilities breaking out over Jammu and Kashmir.
In January this year, Mir and Chaudhry had written columns claiming Modi was scheduled to visit Pakistan and travel to the historic Hinglaj temple in 2021. The proposal was apparently a result of backchannel talks which had led to the announcement of observation of ceasefire at the Line of Control in February 2021.
If true, a prime ministerial visit would have run counter to the Modi government’s stated claim that there could be no engagement with Pakistan until there was “an end to terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir”.
Asked about the veracity of Mir’s claim about the proposed Modi visit, a former South Block official familiar with the bilateral relationship told The Wire on Sunday, “I believe some wild ideas were discussed over whisky in the quiet channel. But they were about two men shooting the breeze… And Pakistani diplomats called it an Indian trap!”
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In his article published on January 5 this year, Javed Chaudhry wrote about the inflection points that led to the estrangement between the Pakistani military establishment and Imran Khan – and consequently the fall of the PTI-led government. He wrote that the then ISI chief,General Faiz Hameed, had met with India’s national security advisor Ajit Doval several times in “an Arab country”, which had eventually led to an agreement that Modi would travel to Pakistan on April 9, 2021.
Incidentally in April 2021, the Emirati ambassador to Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba confirmed that the United Arab Emirates had played a role in de-escalating tensions over the Kashmir issue, as well, as facilitating talks between India and Pakistan. At that time, diplomatic ties had been downgraded and the relationship had been at the nadir following India’s dilution of constitutional amendment Article 370 that gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir.
After paying obeisance at Hinglaj temple, the plan was that Modi would go to Islamabad for a meeting with Imran Khan. However, Chaudhry wrote, the proposal was scuppered after the then-foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi took his objections to Imran Khan, who sided with him. Qureshi had apparently pointed out that India had not made any concessions over Kashmir’s Article 370 status.
Four days later on January 9, Hamid Mir also wrote in his weekly column in the Urdu language popular daily Jang about the alleged behind-the-scenes strains between Imran Khan and General Bajwa.
Mir lambasted Bajwa and Khan for their allegedly inconsistent position on Kashmir and for not pressurising New Delhi on human rights violations in Jammu and Kashmir. Mir had written General Bajwa had always wanted to improve relations with India, even after the revocation of Kashmir’s constitutional status and the isolationist tactics adopted against Kashmiris. However, Imran Khan had “allowed” him to continue to have backchannel talks with India “to keep him away from affairs of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa”, wrote the Pakistani journalist.
Echoing Chaudhry, Mir said that Bajwa told Imran Khan that Modi will be visiting Pakistan on April 9, 2021. When Khan asked about Kashmir, then ISI chief reportedly said that the matter will be frozen for 20 years, he claimed.
After Qureshi warned Khan that the PTI wwould lose electorally in a provincial election, the Pakistan PM did not give his assent, wrote Mir.
In his January 9 Jang column, Mir wrote:
“This was the occasion when Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi warned Khan sahib that there is also a parliament in Pakistan, how will we respond there? We have to contest elections, we will be accused of selling Kashmir. General elections were to be held in Azad Kashmir [PoK] in July 2021. It was feared that if Modi visited Pakistan in April, the PTI would be wiped out of Azad Kashmir in July. During this time, the Economic Coordination Committee had decided to open trade with India, but Shah Mehmood Qureshi not only expressed ignorance about the back channel talks with India, but the federal cabinet also opposed trade with India.”
After an irate Bajwa complained to Imran Khan that the latter had been in the loop, the PTI leader asked him to just “slow down and bring the opposition in”, as per Mir. Apparently, Qureshi also spoke with the Pakistan army chief at the foreign office “to calm his anger”, but asserted that unless India withdrew its actions of August 5, any restoration of ties would be considered a “defeat of Pakistan”.
Now some four months later, Mir has reiterated the claims made in his Jang column in the midst of an interaction on 24 News channel. He noted that Bajwa’s “deal” with India had still not been made public.
Repeating his criticism of Bajwa, Mir claimed on Saturday that the former Pakistani general had been worse for Kashmiris than Ayub Khan and Pervez Musharraf.
Claims prompted diverse reactions
After Chaudhry’s article came out, it was reported in Pakistan and also picked up by the Indian media. However, even after Hamid Mir’s article was published, there has been no official statement from India or Pakistan on whether the Indian PM was close to travelling across the border in April 2021.
In Pakistan, the articles and columns by Chaudhry and Hamid Mir in January were seen as part of the explanation given unofficially by General Bajwa for his falling out with Imran Khan. After Bajwa’s retirement, the former Pakistani PM had been criticising Bajwa by name.
Pakistani analyst Ayesha Siddiqa wrote in an opinion piece, that also mentioned the two articles, that the writings about Bajwa’s outreach to India depicted internal incoherency. “Pakistan is enveloped by divided camps that do not necessarily agree with each other and individuals play several sides at the same time,” she wrote in January.
In The Print, Praveen Swami had also taken note of the “revelations” by the two Journalists, though it expressed a bit of scepticism about the details since they were based on briefings by the former Pakistan army chief.
“Leaving aside the details, however, the reports underline the persistent pursuit of peace by leaders in both countries—and the reasons why negotiations have always failed on the cusp of ‘historic’ opportunities”,” he wrote.
Around that time, Shahbaz Sharif had also called for talks with India and said that Pakistan was ready to talk about Kashmir. It was
In an interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, chairman of the Pakistan National Assembly’s Defence Committee Mushahid Hussain said that General Bajwa had been keen to improve trade relations without expecting any substantial concession by India on Kashmir.
Hussain stated that the reports by Pakistani journalists, Javed Chaudhry and Hamid Mir, based on a supposed conversation with Bajwa suggesting that India and Pakistan had discussed the possibility of “freezing the Kashmir issue” for 20 years, did not represent the official policy of any party or government in Pakistan. The senator suggested that this could simply be Bajwa’s personal opinion following his retirement and that no current Army Chief could hold such a view.