Few people realise that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is originally a Chhattisgarh-based party. Its founder, Kanshi Ram, fought his first Lok Sabha election, in 1984, from the Janjgir constituency in the state. His earlier avatars of the Dalit Shoshit Samaj Sangharsh Samiti and the All India Backward and Minority Communities Employees Federation were tested on the ground in Chhattisgarh in the early 1980s when he was still a leader of the industrial Dalits with a semi-socialist agenda. While he contested from Janjgir, he fielded Dauram Ratnakar, a 25-year-old industrial worker, from the reserved seat of Sarangarh. Neither won or came second, but they still made enough of a dent on others. Importantly, Kanshi Ram became encouraged to build the BSP into what it later became.
So for Mayawati, Chhattisgarh should be an emotional connect.
What has prompted her into an alliance with former chief minister Ajit Jogi’s nascent Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) on the eve of elections in the state in November still mystifies many. On the ground here, it is primarily being seen as Jogi’s success and his infinite ability to stay afloat in the face of adversity. It is also being interpreted as the Congress’s failure to keep Mayawati on board and variously as a sign of a weak mahagathbandhan or a tussle within the national opposition as to who will become the prime ministerial candidate.
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There are others who float deeper conspiracy theories, such as how Mayawati’s pathological hatred for P.L. Puniya, Congress general secretary in-charge of the state, may have thrown the BSP into the arms of an increasingly desperate-looking JCC. There are also reports from some quarters that she was dissatisfied with Congress’s offer of 10 seats to her party. Some even believe that the BJP has muscled her into an alliance with Jogi because the BSP-JCC alliance will damage the Congress more and improve the BJP’s prospects not only in Chhattisgarh but also nationally.
None of it or all of it may be true. But Mayawati is seasoned beyond such considerations. She had meetings with Ajit Jogi and his son, Amit, a couple of months ago when the former was admitted in a hospital in Delhi. It appears that Amit is known to have convinced her that figures and trends show that a third alternative is possible in Chhattisgarh. The core of his argument appears to be that both the Congress and the BJP together tally about 80% of the total votes in the state. This fact is borne out by figures of all the previous elections. That leaves a clear 20% vote which goes to independents, regional parties like the Gondwana Ganatantra Party and the Swabhiman Parishad and one-time players like the Nationalist Congress Party.
Ajit Jogi’s son, Amit, is known to have convinced Mayawati that figures and trends show that a third alternative is possible in Chhattisgarh. Ajit Jogi (L) and Amit Jogi. Credit: Facebook
Jogi had floated the Chhattisgarh Swabhiman Manch (CSM) in 2013 to test the waters and his own strength. It did well in Satnami (a scheduled caste that considers Jogi its own)-dominated areas, particularly Durg and Bilaspur districts. It cornered more than 5000 votes each in at least 15 seats and perhaps caused the defeat of a few Congress stalwarts like the present Pradesh Congress Committee president Bhupesh Baghel and the then leader of opposition Ravindra Choubey. The BJP was quite happy as Jogi has always been seen as a thorn in the Congress’ side. Rahul Gandhi also saw it this way after the 2013 defeat, which laid the ground for later expulsion of Jogi and his son from the party.
BSP has in all elections since 1984 consistently polled between 4-6% of the total votes in Chhattisgarh. That is part of the 20% vote share outside the combined vote share of the BJP and the Congress in the state. But there are 10 assembly constituencies in northern Chhattisgarh where the BSP polls between 15-30% and has won five of those ten seats at various times though not all of them at the same time. These seats are in Korba, Bilaspur, Sarguja and Raigarh districts. The BSP presently holds the Jaijaipur seat but stands a chance of winning Chandrapur, Pamgarh, Sakti, Baikunthpur, Janjgir and Navagarh.
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Considering the BSP has not grown beyond 6% in the state but has continued to wield influence in these seats sub-regionally, Mayawati’s first attempt is to hold on to her territory. An understanding with the Congress does not guarantee her that. The Congress was at best willing to give her 8-10 seats, limiting her to her core area. And that was her main worry. While she was limited to her core area, Ajit Jogi’s JCC, which is a similar Dalit agenda party, would have spread its wings across the state, damaging the BSP in its core area as well. If Jogi aligns with the Gondwana (as is quite possible), he would have actually damaged the BSP in those very ten seats where it has grown over last so many years.
The present alliance with the JCC allows the BSP to contest not only in its core seats but eight of the ten reserved SC seats and another 15 seats where it can piggy back over Jogi, particularly in the Durg, Mahasamund, Dhamtari and Gariyaband districts. The BSP has neither anyone with Jogi’s charisma in its ranks nor anyone with Amit Jogi’s sharp analytical skills. It can thus can utilise both, contain damage and concentrate on its own strengths.
Whatever the alliance may say, what is true at the moment – when neither tickets neither election dates have been announced – is that the best case scenario for Mayawati is that she may be able to win five seats while the JCC may hope to win another three to five. If the alliance manages to achieve that, then it will push either the BJP or the Congress individually out of the race, meaning either party may get restricted to 35 seats. Alternatively, if they remain neck and neck, as they have in every election so far, then also they would hover around forty-two. This would be short of the 46 mark required for a simple majority in a 90-member house. Mayawati with her five seats may play the kingmaker on her own without any help even from the alliance partner. That is the scenario she expects if she has to negotiate with the central government/the BJP or indeed with the mahagathbandhan/the Congress.
Neeraj Mishra is a senior journalist who has covered elections in central India for more than two decades.