Watch | ‘India Has Moved 4 Divisions from Pak to Ladakh Border, Creating Vulnerability’

Colonel Ajai Shukla analyses for Karan Thapar the possible outcome of such a decision if Pakistan is aggressive.

India has moved four divisions from the Pakistan border to the Ladakh border with China and if Pakistan is aggressive this will have left India more vulnerable compared to last year. So says Ajai Shukla, one of India’s leading Strategic Affairs observers and Strategic Affairs Editor of the Business Standard.

Prior to the India-China stand-off in Ladakh India had 12 divisions facing China on the Ladakh front and 25 facing Pakistan on the west. This ratio has now changed. Today there are 16 divisions positioned on the Ladakh front compared to 21 on the western front, Shukla told Karan Thapar for The Wire in an interview.

Bloomberg has reported that “all in all” India now has a total of roughly 200,000 troops on the Ladakh front, which the agency says is “an increase of over 40% from last year”.

In his comprehensive 43-minute interview, Col. Ajai Shukla spoke about nine tactical and strategic adverse outcomes from India’s point of view of the 15-month old India-China stand-off in Ladakh. He said “the two-front threat that strategists have long regarded as the worst-case military scenario for India is now a reality”. He also identified two further implications for the Indian Army.

First, the army has had to “pivot to the north, shifting its traditional emphasis from the Pakistan border to that with China”. For instance, in December 2020 the operational role of the mechanised 1 Corps was switched from the plains bordering Pakistan to the mountains bordering China. Also, he adds, “Northern command has deployed at least two mountain divisions to block the PLA’s incursions in Ladakh”. He says “another division has switched roles from Pakistan to a new deployment against China on the Himachal and Uttarakhand borders”.

The second implication for the army of the two-front threat is that “this has left the army unbalanced – stretched to the limit with no further reserves at hand.”

Unlike in 1965, 1971 and the Kargil War of 1999, when New Delhi could take military action against Pakistan without worrying about China interceding, that’s no longer the case. “Now India would have to factor-in the likelihood of China’s intervention on behalf of Pakistan” he said and This had  clearly limited India’s options and its capacity to handle Pakistan militarily.

The new situation on the Ladakh front also has serious implications for India’s defence budget. It would have to be seriously stepped-up and this could result in cutbacks to the country’s maritime ambitions in the Indo-Pacific, which may not be funded so well hereafter, as well as affect the need for greater health spending in the wake of COVID-19. The Indian defence budget was already been under pressure for several years. As a share of GDP it has shrunk from 2.3% to 2.1%.

In the interview, Col. Shukla identified serious damage to the image of the army as an independent, non-political institution, looked up to by all Indians, as one of nine adverse consequences facing India as a result of the 15-month old India-China stand-off in Ladakh.

The chances of further disengagement in Depsang, Hot Sprints, Gogra and Galwan are “a non-starter”, he also said.

Watch the full interview here.

FS Holds ‘First of Several Briefings’ for Foreign Envoys on Pakistan’s Role in Nagrota Attack

The diplomats were conveyed India’s “concerns regarding Pakistan’s sustained efforts to destabilise the situation in J&K and to subvert local elections and democracy”.

New Delhi: Indian’s top diplomat on Monday met with a small group of foreign envoys in a “first of several briefings” to share information that the foiled attack in Nagrota was “part of Pakistan’s ongoing terror campaign”.

Last week, Indian security forces killed four terrorists in Nagrota district in Jammu and Kashmir, who were apparently planning to disrupt the upcoming District Development Council elections in the union territory.

A day later, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly blamed Pakistan-based terror group, Jaish-e-Mohammad for the attack, which was followed by Ministry of External Affairs summoning the Pakistan high commission’s Chargé d’Affaires to lodge a “strong protest”.

According to official sources, the briefing by foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla to a select group of ambassadors was “first of several briefings to be conducted by MEA in small groups in view of COVID-19 situation”. The other two secretaries in the MEA will also meet with envoys of countries under their jurisdiction.

Sources informed that the heads of mission were given a “detailed information docket” with the details of the incident, as well as a list of items and munitions that that “clearly indicating their Pakistani origins”. “It was pointed out how the incident of November 19 is part of Pakistan’s ongoing terror campaign in J&K and that in the year 2020 itself we have seen 200 incidents of terrorist violence and neutralisation of 199 terrorists,” they added.

Also read: PM Modi Says 4 JeM Terrorists Killed in Nagrota Had Planned ‘Major Havoc, Destruction’

The diplomats were conveyed India’s “concerns regarding Pakistan’s sustained efforts to destabilise the situation in J&K and to subvert local elections and democracy”.

India’s diplomatic offensive on the Nagrota incident takes place a week after Pakistani establishment had distributed a “dossier” on New Delhi’s alleged role in terror activities to the diplomatic community. India had robustly denied all the allegations, with Afghanistan government also joining the denial.

The Indian foreign secretary told the envoys that the terrorists got into India through a underground tunnel in Sama sector. The identification that the terrorists belonged to JeM was based on the markings of the recovered AK-47 rifles and other items.

“Details of JeM’s involvement in previous such incidents were also shared,” sources added.

The last time that India had conducted such briefings for foreign envoys about a terror incident was after the killing of over 30 security personnel in a car bomb attack in Pulwama last year.

India told the foreign diplomats the terrorists were “planning the biggest terror attack in India since Pulwama in February 2019 and the implications can be guessed”. After the Pulwama terror attack, India conducted air strikes at a training facility at Balakot in Pakistan, which led to a retaliatory airstrike by Pakistan in Kashmir.

“This is part of ongoing efforts to sabotage the DDC elections and to carry out a terror attack aimed to coincide with the anniversary of 26/11 Mumbai terror strikes,” sources stated.

Dawood Ibrahim Listing: India and Pak Trade Words, Unanswered Questions Remain

Dawood Ibrahim figured in a recent list published as a Statutory Regulatory Order by Pakistan’s foreign ministry, in what is being seen as a bid to escape blacklisting by the FATF.

New Delhi: A recent statutory notification by Pakistan’s ministry of foreign affairs has turned into another match of words between the two South Asian neighbours. While India claims that a Pakistani official document has mentioned that the fugitive mafia don Dawood Ibrahim is in Pakistani territory for the first time, Islamabad has responded by saying that the listing is not new, is “routine”, and based entirely on a United Nations list that the Security Council expects every country to act on.

What’s the trigger for the latest spat?

On August 18, Pakistan foreign ministry issued a Statutory Regulatory Order which noted that several resolutions of the United Nations Security Council had directed an asset freeze, travel ban and arms embargo against certain entities and individuals. In its annexure, SRO number 741 reproduced the list approved by the UNSC’s ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee.

Listed at serial number ‘QDi.135’ was one of India’s most wanted terrorists, Dawood Ibrahim, the mastermind of several terror attacks, including the 1993 Mumbai blasts. It included the various passports – Indian and Pakistani – that Ibrahim is associated with, as well as his three addresses in Pakistan.

This entry in the gazette, along with other names, are an exact reproduction of the UNSC listing of Dawood Ibrahim – down to the Pakistani addresses and tagging of some of the passport numbers with the word, ‘Misuse’.

Also read: Exclusive: BJP Received Donation From Company Being Probed for ‘Terror Funding’

Speaking on condition of anonymity, Indian government sources on Saturday asserted that this was the first time ever that Pakistan has admitted the presence of Dawood Ibrahim on its territory. This publication, the sources asserted, was done to meet Islamabad’s responsibilities under the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Since June 2018, Pakistan has been on the financial watchdog’s ‘Grey list’ due to “strategic deficiencies” in its anti-terror financing regime.

Partly due to official prodding and partly driven by its own zeal, a major section of the Indian media on Saturday reported the listing as proof that Pakistan – which has long denied that Dawood Ibrahim is on Indian soil – had finally been forced to admit that he was indeed there.

‘Not new, not an admission of anything’, says Pakistan

Late on Saturday night, the Pakistani foreign office issued a statement that the details of individuals put out in its order “reflect information” contained in the list entry of UN’s designated individuals and entities.

Pakistan also stated that media reports claiming Pakistan had imposed “new” sanction measures through its SROs were “not factual”. It also noted that Indian media reports of “Pakistan admitting to the presence of certain listed individuals on its territory, based on the information contained in the SRO, are baseless and misleading”.

“It is once again reiterated that the information contained in the SRO is reproduced as per the details in the list entry of the individuals/entities designated under the two sanctions regime, which is publicly available, and contains names of individuals who despite their confirmed deceased status still continue to be on the sanctions list,” said the statement from Pakistan foreign ministry spokesperson.

Also read: Azhar, Saeed, Dawood, Lakhvi Declared Individual Terrorists Under Amended UAPA

There are earlier orders, but all uploaded in January 2020

While the listing put out by Pakistan is indeed a cut-and-paste from the original list issued by the UN – this is, in fact, the case with similar orders issued by dozens of countries around the world – and does not reflect any inputs (or admission) from Islamabad, what about the Pakistani claim that this is not the first time it has issued such a list?

Pakistan foreign ministry’s UNSC sanctions web page lists all the SROs till December 2015. Since the Indian government has blocked the Pakistani site, it can only be accessed in India via a VPN.

The first SRO, dated December 22, 2015, did list Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi and the underworld Don, along with his Karachi addresses – a facsimile of the UNSC listing. Similarly, SRO 288 of March 31, 2016 and SRO 639, dated July 12, 2017, also had the same listing of Ibrahim and Lakhvi.

The only difference between Dawood Ibrahim’s listing in the SROs dated 2015 and 2016, on the one hand, and 2017 was the place of birth and numbers of properties. The 2015 and 2016 orders mention his birth place as a) Bombai b) Ratnagiri, India”. Two years later, it is only named as “Kher, Ratnagiri, Maharashtra, India”. The 2017 order also does not list a property at Karachi’s Margalla road, which was listed in the 2015 notification.

In between, UNSC committee had amended Dawood Ibrahim’s entry on August 22, 2016. The amendment deleted two points – ‘Bambai’ from Ibrahim’s place of birth and ‘Property at Margalla Raod F 6/2 Street no. 22, House number 29 in Karachi’ under Address.

Indian officials allege ‘back dating’, questions remain

Asked for their reaction to the fact that Pakistan does appear to have issued earlier orders listing Dawood Ibrahim, Indian officials speaking on condition of anonymity cast doubts on whether these orders had been uploaded earlier. “These [older] statutory resolutions appear to be back-dated. If these were true then it would have been reflected in FATF records. Lakhvi and Dawood have never been mentioned by Pakistan in any official document till the 2020 statutory resolution,” said an Indian official.

The Indian claim is difficult to verify. On the Wayback machine – an internet archive that takes snapshots of websites – it is possible to view older versions of web pages, but not links of files like Adobe PDF or word documents.

Nevertheless, it appears the first pass made at MOFA’s UNSC sanctions web page by the Internet archive project was in December 2019. But, the snapshot for December 12 says that the URL was not found.

Also read: In India, the Underworld-Politician-Police Nexus Is Clearly Visible – and Visibly Ignored

The second snapshot on Wayback machine on January 11, 2020, does not list the SRO order dated November 26, 2019, but has the other relevant SROs from 2015 to 2017.

Another archival crawl took a snapshot on February 9, 2020, which does list the the Statutory Regulatory Order dated November 26, 2019.

In other words, if there was ‘back dating’, this was likely done around then, and not in August, when the latest order was issued and caused a storm in the media.

Incidentally, the URL of the PDF files give a hint when they may have been uploaded.

For example, this year’s SRO issued on August 18 has a reference to ‘2020/08’ in its link. Similarly, a fraction of the URL of another SRO dated May 22 states ‘2020/05’.

However, the majority of SROs, from December 22, 2015 to January 16, 2020 had a reference to ‘2020/01’ in their URLs, suggesting a January 2020 upload. This included the December 2015, March 2016 and July 2017 SROs issued by Pakistan foreign office, which had mentioned Dawood Ibrahim and Lakhvi in their annexure.

Did these orders always exist in the Pakistani system but were never publicised till the ministry of foreign affairs decided to upload them on its website in January 2020, presumably under growing international scrutiny and pressure?

Or are the orders themselves an elaborate recreation – as Indian officials suggest – to deflect attention from the Indian spin that Islamabad had finally “admitted” Dawood had been in Pakistan?

If so, why would Pakistan have uploaded the earlier SROs in January 2020? And if they were uploaded in January 2020, how come no one in the Indian government noticed them?

These questions, as of now, remain unanswered.