TDP-BJP alliance

After Nadda-Naidu Meeting, Speculation Rife Again Over TDP-BJP Possible Alliance

While the TDP has been making overtures to the BJP for the past several months, the BJP’s attitude towards its former ally has been sending confusing signals.

New Delhi: A brief interaction between Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief N. Chandrababu Naidu and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) president J.P. Nadda on Monday, August 28, in New Delhi has once again sparked the speculation of an alliance. There has been a talk of reconcilement between former allies after TDP walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 2018 in protest over the denial of Special Category Status to Andhra Pradesh.

Naidu and Nadda held a closed-door meeting – which is said to be of an impromptu nature – after a special function held at Rashtrapati Bhavan where a commemorative coin on N.T. Rama Rao was released on the occasion of his birth centenary by President Droupadi Murmu. Rama Rao, popularly known as NTR, founded TDP after achieving stardom in Telugu cinema.

Also read: Centre Unveils Special Coin on NTR: A Political Message in Dropping His Wife from the Guest List?

According to Hindustan Times, BJP Andhra Pradesh chief D. Purandeshwari and her husband Duggubati Venkateswara Rao, a former MLA, were also present during the discussion. The meeting is said to have lasted for 15 to 20 minutes.

Purandeshwari, a former Union minister in the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, has been recently made the president of the Andhra Pradesh unit of the BJP. Purandeshwari is a daughter of NTR, and Naidu is married to her sister, Bhuvaneshwari.

When asked about a possible pact with the BJP, Naidu said it would be decided at an “appropriate time”. “I can’t comment about the alliances now. We haven’t yet decided on the parties that we will be allying with. Discussions are on and a decision on alliances will be taken at an appropriate time as we assess the situation from time to time,” South First quoted Naidu as saying on Tuesday, August 29.

Naidu also sought to convey that his party snapped ties with the BJP-led NDA in 2018 only on the question of Special Category Status for Andhra Pradesh. In the 2019 elections, TDP had allied with the Congress and attempted to form a joint front of the opposition parties to take on the BJP. After TDP faced its worst defeat in the 2019 assembly and parliament elections, however, Naidu has distanced himself from the opposition.

Speaking of his meeting with Nadda, Naidu said that he is not opposed to supporting the Narendra Modi government in “nation-building”. “Otherwise, we don’t have any serious differences with the Centre. I have made it clear several times in the past,” HT quoted him as saying.

While TDP has been making overtures to the BJP for the past several months, the BJP’s attitude towards its former ally has been sending confusing signals. The TDP has been advocating for a grand alliance of sorts in Andhra Pradesh with Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena and BJP to take on the ruling YSR Congress Party. Both Jana Sena and TDP are of the view that opposition parties in Andhra Pradesh should come together to avoid anti-government from splitting. Andhra Pradesh goes to assembly polls in another eight months along with parliament elections.

In the second week of July when NDA held its first meeting of its allies and potential allies ahead of the 2024 polls in the second week of July, Jana Sena received an invitation, but TDP did not. In fact, this was weeks after Naidu had called on BJP leader and Union home minister Amit Shah in June. The Naidu-Shah meeting at that time had sparked intense speculation that the TDP and BJP alliance was now a foregone conclusion. However, that was not to be.

The BJP also has a friendly relationship with the ruling YSR Congress in the state though there is no formal alliance in place. Both TDP and YSR Congress have been supportive of the Modi government in parliament during the passage of several Bills, including during the recent controversial Delhi Services Bill. They also stood by the BJP when the 26-party INDIA bloc moved a no-confidence motion against the Modi government.

As The Wire reported earlier, the BJP is not in a rush to announce any alliance with parties in Andhra Pradesh. The release of a special coin on the NTR birth anniversary recently by the BJP-led Union government is aimed at BJP wanting to associate itself with the legacy of NTR, which is now to the advantage of the TDP. The move to appoint NTR’s daughter Purandeswari as Andhra Pradesh BJP chief and the special coin on NTR are in that direction.

The ceremony at the Rashtrapati Bhavan Cultural Centre on August 28. Photo: pib.gov.in

The YSR Congress’ response to the unveiling of the special coin on NTR and the Nadda-Naidu meeting has been interesting. It hit out at Purandeshwari for not extending an invitation to NTR’s wife Lakshmi Parvathy, who is the chairperson of Telugu Academy under the YSR Congress government. The official function held in Rashtrapathi Bhavan was attended by all family members of NTR except Parvathy. On the Nadda-Naidu meeting, it alleged that Purandeswari and her wife were lobbying for the BJP-TDP alliance though Nadda was reluctant for the same.

“What more evidence does it require to say that you, your husband and your brother-in-law – all l belong to the same clan. Even the BJP leadership knows about it. That is why the key has been handed over to the thief!” YSR Congress general secretary V. Vijaya Sai Reddy tweeted, referring to Purandeshwari’s appointment as the state BJP chief.

Naidu’s support for caste-based census

Meanwhile, Naidu has extended support to the idea of a caste-based census, which the opposition has been demanding the Modi government to conduct. He said it will be of help in effective poverty alleviation in the country, by gathering data on the correct economic situation of all communities.

“There are poor people who haven’t benefitted from government policies in each section, whether Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes, and even the forward caste groups. We need a comprehensive caste census and we must have a strategy based on the report on how to target these groups in particular,” The Hindu quoted Naidu as saying.

However, the BJP has problems with a caste census, as it is fundamentally at odds with its ideology of Hindutva, seeking ‘vertical integration’ of all castes under a Hindutva umbrella and also not suitable for it politically. It feels such a survey will only benefit the Opposition speaking of empowerment and social justice.

Why a Meeting Between Amit Shah and Chandrababu Naidu Says a Lot About BJP’s Fears

A formal alliance between BJP and TDP in Telangana could happen just before the assembly elections in the state, slotted for later this year. But the question is whether ‘settler’ votes will transfer to a potential BJP-TDP combine.

Bengaluru: Union home minister and Bharatiya Janata Party leader Amit Shah on the night of Saturday, June 3, met Telugu Desham party president Chandrababu Naidu after five long years.

In the lead up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the TDP walked out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and joined the united opposition, accusing the BJP of having been unjust to the state of Andhra Pradesh after it was bifurcated.

The TDP first launched a ‘dharma poratam’ or ‘fight for justice’ and also moved a no-confidence motion against the NDA government. Labelling Prime Minister Narendra Modi a ‘terrorist’, Naidu also accused him of “estranging” his wife.

Shah, in response, called Naidu a “u-turn CM” who has changed his stand on everything countless times and declared that the doors of the NDA are permanently closed for TDP.

Ever since the TDP’s unprecedented debacle in the 2019 elections, Naidu has been more than willing to curry favour with the NDA.

Nonetheless, there had been no response from either Shah or Modi until the developments last night. Why did Amit Shah agree to meet Naidu now? What changed?

BJP’s rout in Karnataka

After PM Modi and the BJP tasted bitter defeat at the hands of the Congress in Karnataka, there has been chatter that all is not well for the BJP in neighbouring Telangana.

“Factional battles between Etela Rajender and Bandi Sanjay is a cause for concern,” a source close to the BJP told The Wire. He further added that with major leaders like Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy and Jupally Krishna Rao refusing to join the BJP, despite Rajender’s overtures, was indication that the wave is not in favour of BJP.

Etela Rajender. Photo: Facebook/Eatala Rajender

A highly placed TDP source told The Wire that BJP is looking for partners since its Karnataka defeat. “NDA is empty now. The BJP is losing its foothold in the south and it is desperately looking for partners,” the TDP source added.

“The BJP was flying too high in Telangana and the Karnataka defeat cut them down to size. And it looks like they’ll fail miserably in Telangana too. In fact, psephologists tell me that this time around the BJP will not cross five seats in the state. They have no hope whatsoever,” All India Congress Committee member Vamshi Chand Reddy told The Wire.

Also read: Are Cracks Appearing in BJP’s Telangana Unit After the Karnataka Debacle?

What is Amit Shah’s strategy?

Speculations are doing the rounds that the meeting between Naidu and Shah was not about Andhra Pradesh but about the upcoming Telangana elections. Denying such rumours Kommareddy Pattabi, TDP spokesperson, told The Wire that the details of the meeting will be revealed at an appropriate time.

“This meeting will have no impact on AP,” Devulapalli Amar, national media advisor for the Andhra Pradesh government additionally told The Wire. He further added that this could be about trying to garner TDP support in the Rajya Sabha when the ordinance against the Supreme Court judgement in favour of the Delhi government led by Arvind Kejriwal will be presented.

Nonetheless, political commentators feel that in its desperation the BJP is looking to the TDP to help garner ‘settler’ votes in Telangana in its favour. Settlers is a term often employed to refer to people from coastal Andhra who have settled in Telangana, especially in the city of Hyderabad. But after close to 10 years of bifurcation, does the TDP still have support among these settlers?

“Many Seemandhra people still support the TDP, especially in the urban areas of Hyderabad and Ranga Reddy districts as well as the bordering districts of Khammam, Warangal, and Mahbubnagar. They fondly remember Mr. Naidu as a visionary who transformed Hyderabad into a tech capital of the world,” Pattabi told The Wire.

In 2014, at the height of the bifurcation movement and the sentiments it roused, the TDP managed to win 15 assembly segments in Telangana. Out of these, 10 segments were from urban segments in Hyderabad and Rangareddy districts. But in 2018, the TDP was reduced to two segments in bordering Khammam district. Clearly, this means the settlers chose to vote for the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now the Bharat Rashtra Samithi) rather than the TDP.

“In 2014, there was confusion and insecurity, especially among the settlers in Telangana. But K. Chandrashekhar Rao’s outreach in 2018, which accorded to them a place in the new ‘Brand Telangana’ identity, helped to garner settler votes,” Pattabi said.

Will the settlers back the BJP?

While the TDP did not want anything to do with the BJP in Andhra Pradesh before 2019, in Telangana it was the BJP which kept the TDP away in 2018. They feared any proximity to an ‘Andhra party’ will hamper their chances in Telangana.

This was realised, rather painfully, by the Congress after they announced their coalition with the TDP for the 2018 assembly polls in the state. KCR played the regional Telangana sentiment card to trounce the Congress-TDP combine and improve his overall tally from 2014 by 25 seats, taking the 10 settler segments in Hyderabad along with him.

Telangana chief minister K. Chandrashekar Rao. Photo: Facebook/KCR

What makes the BJP confident that Naidu can help bring these settler segments back into their fold?

“Back in 2018, the TRS was a regional party. So, they could play the regional sentiment card against Naidu. Now the TRS has become BRS, a national party which is contesting in many states including Andhra Pradesh. So, he cannot use the same card this time around,” a highly placed source in the BJP told The Wire.

“BJP is not a pan-Telangana party. They have some vote share but no cadre. The TDP has no vote share but still have cadres in most districts of Telangana. In his desperation Amit Shah is trying everything including trying to make this match work,” Congress’s Vamshi Chand Reddy said.

He accused the BJP of indirectly supporting KCR in their attempt to defeat the Congress. “Karnataka is gone from their hands. They fear a domino effect if the Congress wins in Telangana too. Thus Amit Shah is colluding with Naidu to split anti-incumbency votes to help KCR win,” he further told The Wire.

While most observers feel a formal alliance between the BJP and TDP in Telangana will happen just before the assembly elections in Telangana slotted for later this year, the million-dollar question is whether ‘settler’ votes will transfer to a potential BJP-TDP combine.

Bandi Sanjay, the state president of the BJP state unit in Telangana, said that it is speculative to assume that there will be an alliance between the BJP and the TDP in the upcoming elections. The Wire also reached out to BJP officially, but there was no response.

Explainer: TDP’s Anger Against the Narendra Modi Govt and What It Means for BJP

According to the Chandrababu Naidu-led state government, the Centre has been ignoring its demands repeatedly.

This article was published first on March 8, 2018, and is being republished to help readers understand why the TDP has insisted on a vote of no confidence.

New Delhi: Whether or not the N. Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) finally snaps ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and pulls out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will be clear in the next few days. But as of now, Naidu’s decision to pull out of the Narendra Modi government, which he announced in a late evening press conference on March 7, has precipitated yet another crisis in governance and, more importantly, Centre-state relations.

Speculations that the TDP would leave the NDA had been rife since the morning of March 7, after a late night meeting of 125 TDP MLAs and 34 MLCs who reportedly unanimously advocated for the alliance to end. And then, when the Union finance minister Arun Jaitley addressed a press conference in Delhi the same evening on Andhra Pradesh’s demand for special category status, it was almost clear that something of this sort was going to happen.

Hours later, Naidu declared that due to the “unwillingness of the Centre” to understand Andhra Pradesh’s financial condition, two Central TDP ministers – Ashok Gajapathi Raju, cabinet minister for civil aviation, and Y.S. Chowdary, minister of state for science and technology and minister of state for earth sciences – will resign from Modi’s cabinet on Thursday morning.

According to government sources who requested anonymity, Modi’s reticence in giving in to the TDP’s demands precipitated this crisis.

In a meeting between Naidu and Modi on January 12, 2018, the former, who had been negotiating hard with senior government officials, handed over a detailed document to the prime minister and sought his direct intervention. The document, which The Wire has accessed, lists multi-layered problems of Andhra Pradesh and explains how it was financially pushed to the wall after the state’s bifurcation in 2014. The then Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government had promised to grant special category status to the state, but the Modi government has not moved on that front over the last four years.

Almost two months passed by but the TDP claims that the Modi government did not fulfil any of its demands, despite having got multiple interim assurances from Jaitley, home minister Rajnath Singh and BJP president Amit Shah.

Jaitley said at Wednesday’s press conference that the 14th Finance Commission has discontinued the practice of granting special category status to states, except those in the Northeast and four hilly states – Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Jammu and Kashmir – which have already been accorded special category status. He insisted that as part of the Union government, his job is also to meet the demands of other states and allocate funds from the Central pool accordingly. “Why not Bihar, why not Jharkhand?” he asked a reporter who questioned him on granting special category status to Andhra.

Jaitley added that since a special category state is supposed to receive 90% of the funds from the Centre for the implementation of centrally-sponsored schemes (as against 60% in other states), the Union government was willing to give that “30% advantage” to Andhra Pradesh in whichever way the state wanted – but without the special category tag. Regarding the demand for tax incentives to the state, the finance minister said that those have already been announced in his first three budgets. As far as the fulfilment of AP’s revenue deficit is concerned, Jaitley said that most of it has been paid over the last four years and he has agreed to disburse the remaining Rs 1,600 crore soon.

He added that approximately Rs 2,500 crore and Rs 5,000 crore have already been paid to the state for two contentious issues – development of the new capital and rehabilitation and resettlement around the Polavaram dam respectively – and hopes that the funds are being properly utilised by the state government.

So wherein lies the problem? The document titled ‘Detailed Note on Issues Related to AP Reorganization Act, 2014’, which Naidu handed over to the prime minister, has some answers.

Andhra Pradesh’s demands

It is clear from the state government’s report that Andhra Pradesh’s problems aren’t only about being granted special category status.

The crux of the problem is that following the bifurcation, Andhra Pradesh lost a substantial section of its revenue due to Hyderabad remaining with Telangana. The state government feels that the service sector has taken a bad hit following the bifurcation because of insufficient urbanisation. Moreover, it feels that it had to part with most of its resources and infrastructure, and should be given special category status as the UPA government had promised for a period of five years, as well as additional tax incentives. In other words, it hopes to have the Centre’s sustained support to develop physical and social infrastructure.

Further, the Andhra Pradesh government is of the opinion that these problems were exacerbated by the “irrational” allocations made to the state during the reorganisation and expects the Centre to correct the anomalies.

Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu. Credit: PTI

The report says that one of the anomalies, which was also confirmed by the finance commission, was that it was allocated only 46% of the estimated revenue despite the fact that 58% of the erstwhile state’s population settled in the reorganised Andhra Pradesh.

“In respect of Gross Domestic Product at current prices with 2011-12 base year, against Rs.9,15,852 crores, the share of Andhra Pradesh came to only Rs.4,64,272 crores (50.69%) for a population of 58%. Due to the irrational and unscientific division, the per capita income of the State was also badly affected. In the year 2013-14 with 2011-12 as base at current prices, the per capita income of Telangana came to Rs.1,12,162 whereas it was merely Rs.82,870 for Andhra Pradesh…During this period though Andhra Pradesh has improved the per capita income from Rs.82,870 to Rs.1,22,376/-, but it continues to be the State with lowest per capita income in southern states.”

It claims that because of this, the state’s revenue deficit shot up immensely. This, in turn, limited its borrowing potential, as per the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act’s restrictions. One of its demands is also that the Centre steps in and repays all its previous loans and increases its borrowing potential.

“The 14th Finance Commission has further estimated that pre-devolution revenue deficit of Andhra Pradesh will increase from Rs.31,646 crores (2015-16) to Rs.47,240 crores (2019-20). The post- devolution scenario revenue deficit of Andhra Pradesh will be Rs.22,112 crores (2015-16 to 2019-20). In comparison pre-devolution revenue surplus of Telangana will increase from Rs 818 crores (2015-16) to Rs 8,902 crores (2019-20). In the post devolution revenue surplus of Telangana will be Rs.1,18,678 crores during the period from 2015-16 to 2019-20.”

In this regard, the report notes, “It is also requested that the State of Andhra Pradesh be allowed a Fiscal Deficit limit of 3.5 per cent of GSDP as against current 3 per cent and accord permission to the State to amend the FRBM Act.”

Similarly, the Andhra Pradesh government says that power allocation to the two states – Andhra Pradesh and Telangana – was also done on a consumption basis. With the highly power-consuming Hyderabad going to Telangana, Andhra Pradesh’s share of power was extremely low and insufficient to develop its infrastructure.

The report also says, “A huge debt liability of Rs 1,30,000 crores was transferred to Andhra Pradesh account. In fact, the undivided loan liability of more than Rs 33,000 crores has been put in the books of accounts of Andhra Pradesh, burdening the State with discharge of liability pending division.”

Similarly, bifurcation has increased its pension liabilities, which were divided according to population ratio, the report notes.

It also points out the ongoing tussle between Telangana and Andhra Pradesh over control of companies like Singaneri Collieries and APHMEL and seeks Central intervention.

It was pointed out by the state government that various anomalies have crept in during the bifurcation, and despite the Modi government promising to resolve the issues, not much has been done. For instance, it notes that various infrastructural projects like the metro rail, construction of a railway zone, a port, a steel plant and so on were promised by the Modi government, but it has not disbursed the required amount to build any of these.

To top this, even the promised assistance to meet the revenue deficit, guaranteed to the state for a period of five years during bifurcation, was not disbursed in full, let alone any additional amount, the government has said.

For instance, the report notes, “Revenue deficit for the year 2014-15 was arrived at Rs. 16,078.76 crores by Accountant General. But, till date only Rs. 3,979.50 crores has been released.” The report also points out multiple “taxation anomalies” when the state was divided as a result of bifurcation, and if not rectified, will burden the AP government with a loss of Rs 3,820 crore.

It also says that Section 26 of the AP Reorganisation Act, 2014 provides for increasing the existing legislative assembly seats from 175 to 225, but the Centre has done nothing on that front. The TDP government says that these demands are its right and will ensure a level playing field for the struggling state.

Finance minister Arun Jaitley addresses a press conference at North Block in New Delhi on Wednesday. Credit: PTI/Manvender Vashist

Political impact

Ever since the TDP has upped its ante against the BJP, a political cat-and-mouse game is on. It was the BJP which beat the TDP first in this contest on March 7, using Jaitley – the finance minister who did not appear in front of the press when the Modi government found itself in the dock on the Punjab National Bank fraud case recently – for damage control. The finance minister talked about it like a political issue, saying that it would be an injustice to states like Bihar and Jharkhand if the Centre grants special status to Andhra Pradesh. On the other hand, he also said that he was “agreeable” to most of Andhra Pradesh’s demands and is ready to meet the state’s monetary needs. His suggestion seemed to be that the state government was merely being obstinate.

It could be that the finance minister was trying to pitch north India, where the BJP dominates, against the south ahead of 2019 general elections.

While Naidu missed the bus initially by not taking the decision to part with the Union government before Jaitley set the national narrative, he made amends with an emotional address at the press conference, conducted just before midnight. He was laying the ground for a regional narrative and consolidating his own place in the state. He projected himself as a victim of the Centre’s injustice. He said that despite having more than two decades of political experience, he sacrificed his pride to visit New Delhi 29 times to work out a plan for Andhra Pradesh’s development, but to no avail.

His political messaging was directed towards the Telugu-speaking people. The YSR Congress has been raising its voice against the TDP, campaigning that the so-called “soft attitude” of Naidu was the reason that the Centre has not paid heed to Andhra Pradesh’s demand for a special status.

Naidu not only addressed that allegation but also nullified YSR Congress’s strategy to beat him in the upcoming elections. At the same time, he sealed the BJP’s fate in the state. For the national party to initiate new talks with Naidu’s opposition, it will now require a Herculean effort.

Meanwhile, Congress president Rahul Gandhi also put his party in the ring by promising special category status to AP if it comes to power in 2019. After the bifurcation of the state, the Congress had lost most of its ground in the reorganised AP.

Despite the political play, TDP pulling out of the Central government is a clear setback to the BJP. While Maharashtra-based parties Shiv Sena (which has announced its plans to go solo in the 2019 general elections) and Raju Shetty-led Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghtana are already out of the NDA, the exit of the TDP may come as a severe jolt to the BJP’s electoral plans in 2019, in terms of both optics and groundwork.