Bengaluru: Union home minister and Bharatiya Janata Party leader Amit Shah on the night of Saturday, June 3, met Telugu Desham party president Chandrababu Naidu after five long years.
In the lead up to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the TDP walked out of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and joined the united opposition, accusing the BJP of having been unjust to the state of Andhra Pradesh after it was bifurcated.
The TDP first launched a ‘dharma poratam’ or ‘fight for justice’ and also moved a no-confidence motion against the NDA government. Labelling Prime Minister Narendra Modi a ‘terrorist’, Naidu also accused him of “estranging” his wife.
Shah, in response, called Naidu a “u-turn CM” who has changed his stand on everything countless times and declared that the doors of the NDA are permanently closed for TDP.
Ever since the TDP’s unprecedented debacle in the 2019 elections, Naidu has been more than willing to curry favour with the NDA.
Nonetheless, there had been no response from either Shah or Modi until the developments last night. Why did Amit Shah agree to meet Naidu now? What changed?
BJP’s rout in Karnataka
After PM Modi and the BJP tasted bitter defeat at the hands of the Congress in Karnataka, there has been chatter that all is not well for the BJP in neighbouring Telangana.
“Factional battles between Etela Rajender and Bandi Sanjay is a cause for concern,” a source close to the BJP told The Wire. He further added that with major leaders like Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy and Jupally Krishna Rao refusing to join the BJP, despite Rajender’s overtures, was indication that the wave is not in favour of BJP.
Etela Rajender. Photo: Facebook/Eatala Rajender
A highly placed TDP source told The Wire that BJP is looking for partners since its Karnataka defeat. “NDA is empty now. The BJP is losing its foothold in the south and it is desperately looking for partners,” the TDP source added.
“The BJP was flying too high in Telangana and the Karnataka defeat cut them down to size. And it looks like they’ll fail miserably in Telangana too. In fact, psephologists tell me that this time around the BJP will not cross five seats in the state. They have no hope whatsoever,” All India Congress Committee member Vamshi Chand Reddy told The Wire.
Also read: Are Cracks Appearing in BJP’s Telangana Unit After the Karnataka Debacle?
What is Amit Shah’s strategy?
Speculations are doing the rounds that the meeting between Naidu and Shah was not about Andhra Pradesh but about the upcoming Telangana elections. Denying such rumours Kommareddy Pattabi, TDP spokesperson, told The Wire that the details of the meeting will be revealed at an appropriate time.
“This meeting will have no impact on AP,” Devulapalli Amar, national media advisor for the Andhra Pradesh government additionally told The Wire. He further added that this could be about trying to garner TDP support in the Rajya Sabha when the ordinance against the Supreme Court judgement in favour of the Delhi government led by Arvind Kejriwal will be presented.
Nonetheless, political commentators feel that in its desperation the BJP is looking to the TDP to help garner ‘settler’ votes in Telangana in its favour. Settlers is a term often employed to refer to people from coastal Andhra who have settled in Telangana, especially in the city of Hyderabad. But after close to 10 years of bifurcation, does the TDP still have support among these settlers?
“Many Seemandhra people still support the TDP, especially in the urban areas of Hyderabad and Ranga Reddy districts as well as the bordering districts of Khammam, Warangal, and Mahbubnagar. They fondly remember Mr. Naidu as a visionary who transformed Hyderabad into a tech capital of the world,” Pattabi told The Wire.
In 2014, at the height of the bifurcation movement and the sentiments it roused, the TDP managed to win 15 assembly segments in Telangana. Out of these, 10 segments were from urban segments in Hyderabad and Rangareddy districts. But in 2018, the TDP was reduced to two segments in bordering Khammam district. Clearly, this means the settlers chose to vote for the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now the Bharat Rashtra Samithi) rather than the TDP.
“In 2014, there was confusion and insecurity, especially among the settlers in Telangana. But K. Chandrashekhar Rao’s outreach in 2018, which accorded to them a place in the new ‘Brand Telangana’ identity, helped to garner settler votes,” Pattabi said.
Will the settlers back the BJP?
While the TDP did not want anything to do with the BJP in Andhra Pradesh before 2019, in Telangana it was the BJP which kept the TDP away in 2018. They feared any proximity to an ‘Andhra party’ will hamper their chances in Telangana.
This was realised, rather painfully, by the Congress after they announced their coalition with the TDP for the 2018 assembly polls in the state. KCR played the regional Telangana sentiment card to trounce the Congress-TDP combine and improve his overall tally from 2014 by 25 seats, taking the 10 settler segments in Hyderabad along with him.
Telangana chief minister K. Chandrashekar Rao. Photo: Facebook/KCR
What makes the BJP confident that Naidu can help bring these settler segments back into their fold?
“Back in 2018, the TRS was a regional party. So, they could play the regional sentiment card against Naidu. Now the TRS has become BRS, a national party which is contesting in many states including Andhra Pradesh. So, he cannot use the same card this time around,” a highly placed source in the BJP told The Wire.
“BJP is not a pan-Telangana party. They have some vote share but no cadre. The TDP has no vote share but still have cadres in most districts of Telangana. In his desperation Amit Shah is trying everything including trying to make this match work,” Congress’s Vamshi Chand Reddy said.
He accused the BJP of indirectly supporting KCR in their attempt to defeat the Congress. “Karnataka is gone from their hands. They fear a domino effect if the Congress wins in Telangana too. Thus Amit Shah is colluding with Naidu to split anti-incumbency votes to help KCR win,” he further told The Wire.
While most observers feel a formal alliance between the BJP and TDP in Telangana will happen just before the assembly elections in Telangana slotted for later this year, the million-dollar question is whether ‘settler’ votes will transfer to a potential BJP-TDP combine.
Bandi Sanjay, the state president of the BJP state unit in Telangana, said that it is speculative to assume that there will be an alliance between the BJP and the TDP in the upcoming elections. The Wire also reached out to BJP officially, but there was no response.