Sushil Koirala

As Nepal Prepares to Exhale, the Challenges it Faces Remain as Intractable as Ever

As a coalition headed by Prachanda takes charge, settling the remaining constitutional issues and resetting relations with India will be top priority.

UML leader K.P. Oli, who resigned as Nepal’s prime minister on Sunday, greets Maoist leader Prachanda after announcing his decision. Credit: Reuters

Sooner or later, Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli of Nepal had to go. In his enthusiasm to emerge as a strong hill upper caste nationalist leader, he had ruffled the feathers of all powerful stake holders in Nepal by opening several fronts of confrontation simultaneously. He offended the Nepali Congress (NC) by refusing to accommodate the last-minute constitutional changes proposed by the late Sushil Koirala. The Madhes and Janjati groups saw him as a staunch opponent of their federal aspirations. Maoists found him untrustworthy as he reneged on a gentlemen’s agreement to hand over power to Maoist leader Prachanda after the budget.

Oli was also seen as encouraging his party-backed human rights organisations in their quest to get criminal charges slapped on Maoists leaders for crimes committed during the insurgency period while apparently assuring them that such issues would be dealt with only under a ‘Truth and Reconciliation’ process. The Maoists were also worried that Oli’s party was trying to encroach upon their grassroots support.

Finally, his own colleagues in the Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist Leninist) (UML) like Madhav Nepal and Jhalanath Khanal criticised him for concentrating power in his hands and governing national and party affairs with the help of a small coterie of loyalists. New Delhi too was upset with Oli for his hyper anti-India nationalism – reminiscent of the royalist days – and his use of the China card to erode India’s traditional strategic space in Nepal.

With Oli gone, Maoist leader Prachanda is now all set to succeed him with the support of the NC. The process is expected to proceed smoothly, though there are vested interests who may try to mislead President Vidya Bhandari – UML leader and a close Oli associate – and drag the issue of succession to the courts on the pretext of constitutional complexities. But Bhandari is a seasoned politician and understands well the dynamics of democratic transitions.

Broadly speaking, it was the alliance of the Nepali Congress and the Maoists that led Nepal’s grand transition of 2005-2006 from traditional monarchy to republican state. It is now hoped that this coalition would be able to give Nepal some much-needed stability and governance. There are of course strong reservoirs of mutual distrust between the two parties but hopefully – since their break in 2008 on the issues of power sharing when the Maoists backed away from supporting the late Congress leader G.P. Koirala for the presidentship – the past eight years have made them mature and moderate towards each other. The NC and the Maoists are ideologically poles apart but this also means they do not have eyes on each other’s grassroots constituencies. The power-sharing arrangement worked out for the present coalition in the form of nine months leadership for each one of them until the next scheduled elections and division of labour for the electoral schedule – with the Maoists conducting local body elections and the Nepali Congress conducting provincial and national elections – may work, provided both Prachanda and Sher Bahadur Deuba assert their leadership in their respective parties and manage to keep their flock disciplined.

‘National’ government

There are also strong possibilities of the Maoist-NC coalition growing into a national consensus government. Madhes-based parties have already decided to back this coalition. The Tharu section of the Madhes-based parties, led by Bijoy Gachchadar, has already expressed a desire to join the government. Similarly inclined is the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) led by Lokendra Bahadur Chand and Pashupati Shumsher, which is planning to unite with the Kamal Thapa faction of the RPP in the coming weeks. There are clear indications that even Oli’s UML may not be averse to joining the new government if the Maoists and the NC come forward. Prachanda has in fact personally expressed his hope of cooperation from the outgoing prime minister. The UML in power may be more amenable to accepting the agenda of the new government than out of power. If the UML joins the government, Nepal may have a broad-based national consensus government. In establishing such a government, the working out of a power-sharing arrangement that satisfies each constituent may pose some difficulties but the ingenuity and resilience of the Nepali politicians have always found a way out of such challenges.

The new government in Nepal faces many fold challenges, the most difficult of which are those related to accommodating the demands of the Madhes and Janjati group, and of the Maoists concerning a truth and reconciliation process on the excesses of the insurgency period. While the NC and the Maoists appear to be accommodative towards the Madhes-related issues, the Madhes and Janjati groups will have to become more flexible and accept a layered approach towards their aspirations. Their demands are genuine but Nepal’s tangled political reality can be moulded only gradually. As far as the excesses of the insurgency period are concerned, the Maoists are not the only guilty party; the Nepal army and the government leaders of that time were equally responsible in contributing to human misery through violence and destruction. The victims of such excesses have to be adequately compensated and their psychological wounds healed by the society as a whole, but the ends of transitional justice cannot be met through political witch-hunting or selective criminalisation.

Among the other major challenges facing the new government are relief and rehabilitation of the quake affected areas, and economic development with good governance. For long, the issues related to quake reconstruction and relief have been used to reinforce political fiefdom and patronage. The new leadership will have to rise above this template and show greater efficiency and dedication. Nepal’s developmental and governance issues have also remained mired in corruption and bureaucratic lethargy. It remains to be seen if the new government will be able to make any difference in this respect.

India’s view

India may be rejoicing at Oli’s exit but there is no way New Delhi can be complacent about its Nepal policy. India may hope to turn Nepal away from its recently gained strategic proximity towards China, but that may be easier said than done. The reason is that China is determined to push itself strategically in South Asia and Nepal is a strong component in this approach. China has its well-crafted and attractive Belt and Road Initiative and it has the political will and economic muscle to back it to the hilt. If India itself is looking for Chinese investments, how can it dissuade any of its neighbours from welcoming tempting Chinese offers? Indian policy makers must learn from their recent experience in Sri Lanka where they tried their best to get the Chinese out of the Colombo Port City project but could not succeed. Even a substantial redefining of the project could not be achieved. For meeting the emerging Chinese challenge in South Asia, India has to improve its own delivery deficit and overall approach towards the issues of political transition in the neighbourhood. When India alienates its neighbours through its flip-flop approach, it can’t expect that China or any other country will not cash in on its lapses. Nepal is no exception. We have a new Nepal, a young and acutely self-conscious Nepal, an aspiring and ambitious Nepal. India cannot approach this Nepal with a ‘business as usual’ mind set.

Besides the bilateral dynamics of relations, India must speak with one voice on the unfolding issues of political transition in Nepal. For long, different stake holders in India have been speaking in divergent and even conflicting voices, thus keeping Nepal confused on what New Delhi really expects out of it. It would be counterproductive to mix up the issues of inclusive democracy and the rights of the Madhesis with the current ruling party’s agenda (or at least sections of it) of a Hindu state and revival of the monarchy. Nepal is itching to redefine the nature of its engagement with India and India must encourage Nepal to present a credible blue print of the aspired changed relationship in a manner that does not hurt India’s core security and developmental interests in Nepal. India has already done so in the case of Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The similar challenge in Nepal has to be met resolutely.

S.D. Muni is Professor Emeritus, JNU; Distinguished Fellow, IDSA, and a former Indian ambassador and special envoy of the Government of India

At South Asian University, India Finds it Takes Hard Work to Exercise Soft Power

The university may have broken its convocation ‘jinx’ but issues regarding its functioning – visas for students and campus construction – continue to plague the institution.

Nepal’s foreign minister Kamal Thapa, Indian minister of state for external affairs V.K. Singh and other dignitaries at South Asian University’s first convocation ceremony. Credit: Facebook

New Delhi: Almost a decade after Manmohan Singh first mooted the concept in Dhaka, the South Asian University (SAU) held its first convocation in the cavernous hall of Delhi’s Vigyan Bhawan – an old favourite venue for staid government commemorations.

The university – “a centre of excellence” – was part of a slew of proposals made by Singh when he was prime minister to demonstrate India’s commitment to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, or SAARC, especially to assuage concerns after New Delhi postponed the 2005 summit for eight months due to annoyance with the government of Khaleda Zia that was in power in Bangladesh.

Six years after its doors opened, the university is still largely a work in progress – the construction of a new campus finally began in May this year after delays over land and statutory approvals, and visa troubles for students and faculty continue to crop up intermittently.

But on the morning of June 11, the excited babble of rows of students wearing black gowns and yellow silk scarves raised some hopes that the institution may finally be finding its feet.

Wearing purple and velvet robes and caps lined with golden brocade, Nepal’s foreign minister Kamal Thapa and minister of state for external affairs V.K. Singh, walked at a stately pace to a flower-bedecked dais. Over the next hour, Thapa gave away nearly 350 masters’ degrees.

Standing amidst the 30-odd gold medalists was 27-year-old Amit Kumar Shukla, now a computer science Ph.D scholar who was part of the first MSc computer science batch in 2011. His first day at SAU is clearly etched in his memory, he says. “We went to the rooms, but they were still being prepared. We went to a common room and waited and met some others. Then, I met others. The second person was from Bangladesh. He was first Muslim person that I ever met,” he said. “See I am from a small town, Kapurthala and in Delhi I studied in an off-campus DU college, which cuts you off from the mainstream, so I was limited a bit,” Shukla said sheepishly. His batch had eight Indian students, eight Afghanis, two Bangladeshis, and one student each from Sri Lanka and Nepal.

The first international university of its kind in India, classes were held in rooms at Jawaharlal Nehru University’s school of languages, literature and culture studies, with hostel accommodation provided at Hotel Centaur on the road to Delhi airport. The university soon moved in entirety to Akbar Bhavan in central Delhi, the 10-storey. one-time five-star hotel constructed for the 1982 Asian Games that was made over to the Union government several years ago. At Akbar Bhavan, the SAU sharing space with the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs.

Visa troubles

The foreign ministry is the coordinating body for two educational institutions – SAU and Nalanda University. New educational institutions with an international flavour are thought to act as magnets for foreign students and teachers, and multipliers for India’s soft power. At least that was the theory. The hard reality of institution-building soon disabused officials and scholars of the notion of an easy pay-off.

The university had just a month to prepare for the convocation. One of the biggest impediments was to arrange for visas for the foreign students and their families, especially those from Pakistan. In the end, despite plenty of toing-and-froing between the university and foreign ministry, the visas arrived on time.

But for students like Subhash Sagar from Pakistan and Ashraf Uddin from Bangladesh, the visa troubles transcend the convocation and has impacted their studies; standing in line at regular renewals at the Foreigner Regional Registration Offices was not part of their initial plans.

Sagar had been promised a university visa, which was meant to be valid for the entire period of study, as well as allow him to travel all over India, enter and exit from any airport, and report to the police only once, after the first fortnight’s stay. “That was changed. We found our visas were only valid for Delhi and Gurgaon, and to one entry and exit. Also, it had [to be] renewed every year,” he said.

Similarly, Ashraf Uddin has been awaiting his visa renewal for the last two months. “My visa validity has ended, but I have been told that if I show my submission slip, then I won’t have any problem,” he told The Wire. He received a gold medal for his masters and is currently pursuing a doctorate with the university.

“This is a very serious problem,” said university vice president Sasanka Perera, the well-known sociologist from Sri Lanka. The agreement for SAU had resolved the terms of the special visa, which were issued to the first few batches. “Lately in the past two years, we see that the SAU visa is not necessarily issued. Instead, students get general education visa or even SAU visas for just six months,” Perera said

This has not just impacted students who have to worry about their visa renewals, but also affects teaching. “Students who come from Pakistan are getting only city-specific visas. Particularly, for people like me, we take them to other parts of the country for training in sociology. If I can’t take two of my Pakistani students with me, I can’t take my entire class,” he added.

SAU president Kavita Sharma said that there had been “ups and downs” over the visa issue, adding that the foreign ministry had now appointed a full-time liaison officer. She pointed out that obtaining all the visas for the convocation had been a herculean effort for which “everybody worked very hard”.

Inevitably, some of SAU’s unique challenges are a consequence of the volatile political situation in the region. The first convocation was to be held in 2012, but it could not take place as the then chair of SAARC and the visitor to the university, Maldives, was coping with the aftermath of the ‘resignation’ of President Mohamed Nasheed.

The following year, there was apparently a protocol wrangle. A foreign head of state’s travel required a ‘state visit’ tag – which necessitated his Indian counterpart to be also present during the trip. “The president was not available in Delhi during those dates, so there could not be a state visit. So, no convocation,” an SAU official said. The continuing instability in the Maldives apparently did not allow for the consideration of another visit for the remainder of its term as SAARC chair.

In 2015, the convocation date was set for June 11. “We were looking forward to have Nepal Prime Minister Sushil Koirala, but there was a lot of political upheaval there over the constitution. So, it got postponed again,” the university official said.

That “jinx” was finally broken this year – much to the relief of university officials.

Operational costs, and a permanent campus

Among the eight member states, Pakistan has still not made an annual contribution towards the operational cost of the university. As per the agreed formula, Pakistan was to bear 11.83% of the operational cost, the second highest after India’s 51.8%. In 2014, the dues from Pakistan stood at Rs 7.8 crore.

In the past five years, India has spent Rs 291 crore on the university – Rs 139.53 towards recurring costs and Rs 152.47 crore for capital expenditure, which the country has promised to bear in totality.

Regional geo-politics also almost had an impact on the start of the construction of the university building. Nepal’s first woman president, Bidhya Devi Bhandari, was to have inaugurated the construction, but the visit was cancelled at the last moment by an angry K.P. Oli government blaming India for being behind a move to remove him.

It was the latest in the long line of troubles for SAU’s campus construction, which should have begun in 2013.

Although the Delhi Development Authority (DDA) handed over a 100 acre plot of shrubland and thorny trees in south Delhi’s Maidan Garhi, it turns out the DDA did not give the university a clean slate for construction. There are at least three separate litigations over portions of the plot, on which the Delhi high court put a stay. It so happens that the Delhi ridge also intrudes onto the plot.

“The political will in India for supporting the project is strong. Problem was that we were getting bogged down in the day-to-day engagement with the local bureaucracy. If Prime Minister [Narendra] Modi says something very positive in Kathmandu, that doesn’t get translated into the way that Delhi-based bureaucrats work,” said Perara.

Meanwhile, every month of delay cost at least Rs 1.5 crore, which goes towards the rent for the eight floors leased in Akbar Bhavan.

The environmental clearance for construction came in last year, on the very same day that foreign minister Sushma Swaraj ‘broke’ ground and laid the foundation stone, with a bricked fence quickly raised.

“I started with a boundary wall to break the jinx. Because some jinxes have to be broken, otherwise some things don’t move,” said Sharma.

The first five buildings should be up in two-and-half years, which will house the departments of life sciences and earth sciences. “In another few months, we should be ready to construct the next seven buildings,” she adds.

Meanwhile, the expansion of academic programmes and increasing student intake has been stalled until the construction of the permanent campus is finished, as space at Akbar Bhavan is already cramped.

Boosting regional consciousness

One of the objectives of creating the university was to strengthen “regional consciousness”. This was also echoed when Swaraj talked about forging a “sense of South Asian consciousness”.

The university policy is to have multiple nationalities bunk together in a hostel room. Half the student population is made up of Indians, with a large number of Afghans, Bangladeshis and Nepalese. Pakistani students number around 20, with even fewer applicants from Bhutan, Maldives and Sri Lanka.

The faculty could, perhaps, be more diverse – currently, around 50 out of the 56 university teaching staff are from India. But, the administrative workforce is more well-represented from the region.

Independence day celebrations for Pakistan and India are held together. “We begin our function at 10 p.m. on [August] 14, so that we start with Pakistani independence day and then after midnight, it will be Indian independence”.

Every week, all students have to attend a multi-disciplinary lecture on South Asia, which tackles topics ranging from economic challenges to tribal rights.

It has certainly been educational for most students, who arrive with their own mental sketches of their neighbours.

When he first came to SAU from Bangladesh, Ashraf Uddin’s top worry was food. “I was not sure that north Indian food would be edible,” he said. His batchmate, Sunil Kumar Jha fretted over whether he would find any common ground with classmates from Afghanistan. “My imagination was only shaped by TV, which showed Afghans in a certain way,” Jha said, making a gesture to depict flowing robes and luxuriant beards. “Then, I met them here. They are like Hollywood heroes”.

To his surprise, Jalal Shams from Kabul found that he got along extremely well with a Sri Lankan student. “We would talk for hours about war, civil war. How our country’s immediate neighbour work against us… What Sri Lanka faced 10-15 years ago, we are now going through the same thing,” he said.

An identity still in the making

A few years before Singh proposed starting SAU, Perera had been part of the group of South Asian intellectuals like Kanak Mani Dixit and Ashis Nandy who were discussing the concept of a pan-regional educational institution.

Having been associated with SAU from the beginning, Perera is not totally convinced that a South Asian identity has evolved among students as a result of their varsity experience.

“I hear a certain rhetoric. But I am a sociologist, so I am suspicious,” he told The Wire.

“When we organised a festival on Faiz, some students, about three-four, came and said why do you want to hold an event about a Pakistani poet. He is not really a Pakistan poet. He is a regional poet. It shows that just because we build a university, it doesn’t mean that the rhetoric and disruptions of nation states will dissolve overnight. This is what people think on the street,” he said.

Sharma remarked that “consciousness is a big word”. “But you can see it here,” she said with a wave of hand at the chattering, robed young men and women capturing their day with group selfies. “First convocation and over 300 students came today. Obviously, this is an endorsement that they had a meaningful time here”.

She is rather concerned if there is space for institutional renewal within the university that brings a certain level of academic vibrancy. “Any good university should [have] a constant conversation on its curriculum, pedagogy. These are conversations that happen much more frequently in the western part of the world, rather than here… If I am alive 20 years down the road and this university is still holding these conversations. I will be the happiest person.”

Nepal’s Jinxed Constitution Has Robbed the Festive Season of Light and Joy

The regime in Kathmandu will need to suspend its triumphalism and realise that fooling people isn’t a sound strategy of either governing the country or doing diplomacy. The constitution was “fast-tracked”. There is no reason why amendments can’t also be.

The regime in Kathmandu will need to suspend its triumphalism and realise that fooling people isn’t a sound strategy of either governing the country or doing diplomacy. The constitution was “fast-tracked”. There is no reason why amendments can’t also be.

A swing for Dashain. Credit: Anuma Bhattarai/Flickr CC BY-SA 2.0

A season of swings. Credit: Anuma Bhattarai/Flickr CC BY-SA 2.0

Kathmandu: It is going to be the grimmest Dashain in the memory of post-1990 generation. Powerful earthquakes earlier this year killed over 9,000 people and perhaps no lamps will be lit this Diwali in the grieving households. Chhath Pooja will be subdued in Madhes, where over 40 protestors were shot dead by the police during the ongoing mass movement for civil rights and social justice. It’s the disruption of the normal Dashain, however, that will remain in the popular lore of the capital city for years to come.

Like in much of Jambudwip and Bharatvarsha of yore, Hindu festivals in Nepal depict the power plays of different varnas.

In the hierarchy of ceremonies, Guru Poornima ranks highest and is considered to be the day of the Brahmans – when priests and preceptors change sacred threads, tie sanctified cotton yarn on the wrist of their clients, and bless believers in expectation of considerations.

Tihar celebrations last five days and include the Festival of Lights – Deepawali. Vaishya householders do elaborate poojas to appease the Goddess of Wealth; and then feast thereafter in the name of social ceremonies such as the Bhatri Dwitiya, that bring brothers and sisters together for festive reunion.

During Chhath Pooja, everybody turns into a Shudra to worship the Mother of Life – Chhaith Maiya. It’s a festival of five eternal elements of nature – earth, fire, water, sky and ether – that celebrate the cycle of birth and death with brief interludes of joy, apathy, and grief in-between.

The autumn harvest festival of Dashain is dedicated to the Goddess of Power and is celebrated by warrior Kshatriyas with blood sacrifice. For cultural, historic and economic reasons, Dashain has remained the biggest annual festival of Nepal, celebrated with equal gusto by all the four varnas of the Hindu hierarchy. Monarchs represented the entire population of the kingdom; hence, Dashain was declared to be the national festival. Non-Hindus, atheists and agnostics mark it as a cultural fête.

After the ouster of the monarchy in 2008, Nepal formally became a federal democratic republic, but cultural practices persist despite political upheavals. The expression “Dashain hoina, Dasha” in Nepali is used to describe sufferings when mischance befalls instead of good fortune, as it has done this year in the form of a contested constitution that has wrought multiple crises.

Deepening crisis

Cars queuing up for petrol in Kathmandu. Credit: nepalkhabar.com

During Dashain, Nepalese of all persuasions head home to be with their families. New clothes are bought. Ingredients for special dishes are arranged to last for a fortnight. The markets of Kathmandu used to be crowded prior to the festival with shoppers buying gifts before going on a long vacation. Seats in long distance buses used to be booked months in advance and airlines increased their flights to cope with the passenger load.

This year, everything is subdued. Asan and Indrachok, two of the busiest market streets in Kathmandu valley, are almost empty. Let alone buyers, even window-shoppers are few and far between at the fancy boutiques on Durbar Marg. Footfalls in the chain of Bhatbhateni superstores are negligible. Newly developed shopping malls appear desolate.

Buses plying between different cities didn’t open advance booking counters and airlines haven’t added flights. Many restaurants have put up signs that no food will be served due to scarcity of cooking gas. Diplomatic missions have issued advisories warning their citizens that travelling to Nepal is fraught with risks.

Kathmandu these days is a city of queues, where taxis wait for days to get a few litres of petrol. There is a mêlée near Balkhu, where cylinders of cooking gas are being made available by turn to consumers. Private vehicles are allowed to ply on the basis of their registration number alternately on odd and even days.

The city showed its survival instinct even at the height of the Gorkha Earthquake when people shared the grief and joy of each other in a stoic display of optimistic solidarity. Exasperation bordering on despair is the current mood inof Kathmandu. Nobody knows for sure why they have to endure all this.

In the Madhes plains along the 1,751 km-long open Indo-Nepal border, the situation is much worse.

Schools and shops have remained closed for almost two months. Businesses have been shut down. There is no transport. Grief and anxiety permeates the air as survivors of police atrocities struggle to cope with their loss. Prohibitory orders and curfew was common till few days ago. The army has been officially withdrawn, but paramilitary forces and riot police continue to patrol highways and streets throughout Madhes.

Protestors have found innovative ways to express their distress; some of the examples being the formation of lthe argest human chain in the world along the Hulaki Highway and the demonstration of a ‘live corpse’ lying in the middle of thoroughfares to represent the condition of common Madhesis.

A protest against the new constitution in the Terai. Credit: Facebook/United Madhesis of Nepal

All this is happening because of a statute that has deepened the longstanding divide between the Pahadi and Madhesi communities of Nepal like never before.

The permanent establishment of Nepal – what I call the PEON – in Kathmandu blames the “unofficial blockade” of the landlocked country for widespread distress in the daily life of the people. Protesting Madhesis claim responsibility for the blockages in supply lines due to their uninterrupted demonstrations at major entry points along the Indo-Nepal border. At the heart of both explanations lie contested provisions of a new constitution that was rushed through parliament by voice vote with the help of party whips and without any discussion on the floor of the house.

The charter has been doomed right from the start. If the damp Dashain is any indication, its implementation – without amending some of its fundamental features – is going to be fraught with unpredictable risks. Unfortunately, the chances of corrections in the constitution appear dim. A radical-right and ultra-left coalition has replaced the lackluster government of Sushil Koirala that reigned without governing the country. The newly-elected prime minister, Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, will probably reign and rule but fail to govern all over again.

Opportunistic coalition of male, masale, mandale

KP Oli greeting Narendra Modi during the latter’s visit to Kathmandu in 2014. Credit: PTI

In the hung parliament, the Nepali Congress is the biggest party. Its leader, Sushil Koirala headed a coalition with the second biggest group on the floor of the house – the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) until a week ago. After the promulgation of the new constitution, the two partners have parted company. Contesting against each other, the NC’s Koirala lost the race for premiership to Oli of the CPN (UML).

In order to prop up his government, Oli has joined hands with the Hindutva party of Kamal Thapa on the right and the Maoists led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ on the left. The rearguard support for the coalition comes from the Madhes-based outfit of Bijaya Kumar Gachhedar – a Tharu politico of fluid convictions.

Such a dodgy coalition – derided as a mix of Male (Stalinists), Masale (Maoists) and Mandale (Monarchists) – has nothing in common except their shared chauvinism, which portrays India as the main enemy and the Madhesis as Nepal’s fifth column. With the composition of a cabinet such as this, it’s extremely unlikely that Premier Oli will have the courage to amend the constitution and bring protesting Madhesis back into parliament before going for fresh elections.

Other than an agreement over distribution of posts, the unwieldy alliance has failed to prepare a common minimum program to address outstanding issues of political economy. After experiencing uncertainties of supplies through Kolkata port, investors will carefully weigh their options before making any commitments. Tourism has taken a hit at the beginning of what would have been the busiest season (September-November) for business. Production at industrial units has plummeted and distribution has been stalled due to fuel shortages and the resulting transportation hitches. The road to the resolution of all these issues passes through Madhes.

Since the conclusion and ratification of the Sugauli Treaty in 1814-16, the relationship with India has been one of the key elements of domestic politics in Nepal. Courting or cursing New Delhi according to one’s convenience has continued to be the favorite pastime of the power elite in Kathmandu ever since.

The exchange of pleasantries between prime ministers of both countries apart, there is little indication that the opportunistic alliance in government has a coherent India policy. Waving the China card to make fun of the discomfiture of Indian diplomats is all very well, but the reality is that Nepal’s northern neighbour can only be a supplementary partner and not an alternative to the multi-sector affiliations with New Delhi. Once again, the flawed constitution is perhaps an issue that has to be satisfactorily resolved to bring normalcy back into Indo-Nepal relations.

With issues so entangled between the PEON in Kathmandu, protestors in Madhes, and the power elite in New Delhi, the harder anyone tries to get out of the quagmire, the deeper they sink.

The economic crisis has begun to bite the regime in Kathmandu, but the new government lacks the political resolve to backtrack from its belligerent position. There is exasperation in Madhes after over two months of relentless protests, but cessation is not an option without extracting constitutional concessions from the regime. Perhaps there is considerable confusion in the power corridors of New Delhi too, which doesn’t know what to do with an internal conflict of Nepal that has sucked it in. No matter what it does, the charge will be that it has either not done enough or gone too far, depending upon interpretation. There is a reason the normally garrulous international community in Kathmandu has maintained a meaningful silence. Nobody knows what to do next.

Possible prescription

Members of Parliament from Madhesi parties on protest against the constitution. The fact that many Madhesi MPs chose to vote in the contest between Sushil Koirala and KP Oli for prime ministership – backing the former instead of boycotting the House as they had initially threatened to do – has led to anger in the Madhes region.

Protestors in Madhes may find it unpalatable, but the constitution is already a fait accompli. It’s not possible to rescind the charter anymore. Amendments are the only way out of the bog. Since Madhesbadi parties have already participated in the constitutional process by voting for the main opposition party in the parliament – they backed Koirala over Oli in the vote for PM – they will have to convince the Nepali Congress and make a common cause with them for desired amendments. The implementation schedule of the agreement signed between the UML and Gachhedar’s party offers a window of opportunity.

The regime in Kathmandu will need to suspend its triumphalism and realise in all modesty that fooling people isn’t a sound strategy of either governing the country or doing diplomacy. The constitution was “fast-tracked”. There is no reason why amendments can’t be passed in a similar manner. The 10-day gap between Dashain and Tihar should be enough to ensure that the householder Vaishyas have enough reason to light lamps of hope during Deepawali.

Strange as it may seem, New Delhi’s options too are rather limited. It cannot be seen as constricting the flow of goods into what is an India-locked country for all practical purposes. However, it can’t shy away from potential conflicts along its long and open border either. Away from grandstanding, New Delhi will probably have to keep watch and maintain calibrated pressure to ensure that Nepal doesn’t fall into the abyss of intractable conflicts due to the shortsighted chauvinism of politicians in Kathmandu.

It is a bleak Dashain by all accounts. The possibility of a bright Tihar is still there. Living in Kathmandu makes one believe in the power of prayers.

C.K. Lal is a journalist and political commentator from Nepal