COVID-19: Health Ministry Sources Say Next 40 Days Crucial But Don’t Cite Any Study

India has been reporting 150 to 200 new cases for the last 20 days and there are no indications of any consistent increase, according to official data.

New Delhi: The next 40 days might be crucial for India as fears of a new COVID-19 wave grips the country, Union health ministry’s official sources said, according to news agency PTI.

The sources quoted, however, did not cite any modelling study to buttress their claim nor the specific baseline for the time period of 40 days.

“Previously, it has been noticed that a new wave of COVID-19 hits India around 30-35 days after it hits East Asia…. This has been a trend,” PTI quoted the officials as saying.

Due to the upsurge in COVID-19 cases in China, the Union government has only recently sounded an alarm. However, the BF.7 sub-variant of Omicron, which has been linked to the surge in China, was first reported in India in June itself in Gujarat, and the last and third case of this sub-variant was reported in November in India. No fresh data from India’s genome sequencing database indicates a fresh case of BF.7 in India.

Also read: From Detection in Pre-Poll Gujarat to Current COVID Advisory, Modi Govt’s Puzzling Response to BF.7

There is no clarity from sources quoted by the PTI as to why BF. 7 – one of more than 500 sub-variants of Omicron is being potentially linked to fresh troubles for India – when India has already had experiences with several other forms of Omicron, including BA.2.75 and XBB.

Virologists like CMC Vellore’s Gagandeep Kang and Ashoka University’s Anurag Agarwal have said that they don’t expect a fresh wave in the country given India’s hybrid immunity gained due to high rates of primary vaccination and natural infection.

There has been unanimity among experts that – as officials in the health ministry also say – that the situation in China is much different from India because of not-so-high vaccination rates in China and low exposure of population there to the virus because of the country’s ‘Zero Covid’ policy.

PTI also quoted sources saying that though the ministry expects the cases to rise, it does not expect an increase in hospitalisation numbers or deaths. No study has been cited to this effect also.

Nonetheless, the Union health ministry has ruled out making masks mandatory in any eventuality.

It may be mentioned here that India has been reporting 150-200 new COVID-19 cases in the last 20 days and there are no indications of any consistent increase. According to the Union health ministry update, 188 new cases were recorded on December 27. The positivity rate stands at less than 1% for several months now. For December 24, it was 0.14%.

The positivity rate indicates the number of samples testing positive out of a total of 100 samples tested. If the positivity rate goes above 5%, then it becomes a matter of concern, according to WHO. The positivity rate is considered to be a better indicator of understanding the trajectory of cases as compared to ‘new cases’ being reported every day as it avoids testing bias. An increase in the number of tests being conducted may lead to a spike in new numbers being reported.

PTI reported 39 international passengers were found positive for COVID-19 out of the 6,000 tested on arrival in the last two days. The Union government recently renewed a push for screening and testing passengers at airports. Of all passengers arriving from abroad, 2% are being randomly tested from December 22.

Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya is expected to visit Delhi airport tomorrow, December 29, to take stock of testing and screening

The PTI sources said filling up of ‘air suvidha’ forms and 72-hour prior RT-PCR testing may be made mandatory from next week for international passengers coming from China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Bangkok and Singapore.

Doctors at Delhi’s Hindu Rao Hospital Continue Protest for Second Day Over Delay in Salaries

According to Dr Abhimanyu Sardana, president of Residents’ Doctors Association of Hindu Rao Hospital, the protest is to demand proper segregation of the donning and doffing area.

New Delhi: Doctors and nurses of Hindu Rao Hospital continued their protest for the second consecutive day on Saturday against the working conditions at the medical facility and delay in payment of salaries, even as the NDMC-run hospital received its first batch of COVID-19 patients.

According to Dr Abhimanyu Sardana, the president of Residents’ Doctors Association of Hindu Rao Hospital, the protest is to demand proper segregation of the donning and doffing area. He said even the air-conditioning system is not working properly at the hospital.

The doctor claimed that their salaries have not been paid since April.

Sardana said the protest started at 9.30 am and went on till 2 pm, with North Delhi Municipal Corporation (NDMC) officials assuring them that their problems will be addressed.

He said the staff, involved in coronavirus care, has been provided accommodation at the Park Hotel in Connaught Place.

The hospital, which was converted into a COVID facility by an order of the Delhi government on June 14, received two patients on Saturday, he added.

An NDMC official on Friday had said that a number of measures were being taken to improve infrastructure at the hospital, including provision of ACs, CCTVs, etc.

Delhi: COVID Patients No Longer Have to Visit a Care Centre for Medical Assistance

The lieutenant governor’s (LG) order on patients visiting the COVID-care centres for a clinical assessment was a bone of contention between the Centre and the Delhi government.

New Delhi: The Centre has withdrawn the order that made it mandatory for those testing positive for the coronavirus to visit a COVID-care centre for a clinical assessment, Delhi deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia said on Thursday.

With 3,390 fresh instances, the number of coronavirus cases stood at 73,780 in Delhi on Thursday, including 26,586 active ones. Sixty-four fatalities were reported, taking the death toll due to the disease to 2,429 in the city.

Like the earlier system, medical teams will assess the health of a patient by visiting his residence and see whether he needs to be shifted to a hospital or COVID-care centre, Sisodia said after a Delhi Disaster Management Authority (DDMA) meeting.

The lieutenant governor’s (LG) order on patients visiting the COVID-care centres for a clinical assessment was a bone of contention between the Centre and the Delhi government. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) dispensation in the national capital, which had been urging the Centre to reverse the order, said the new system was causing inconvenience to the patients and burdening the already stressed health infrastructure of the city.

“The central government and the LG have scrapped the order of mandatory visit to a COVID-care centre for all positive patients,” Sisodia told reporters during an online briefing.

The decision was taken during a meeting of the DDMA, which is headed by the LG.

However, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) said the DDMA directions on home isolation were a reaffirmation of the decision taken by home minister Amit Shah at a meeting on June 21.

“Today’s SDMA decision on home isolation of COVID-19 positive patients in Delhi is a reaffirmation of the decision taken at the meeting held by Union Home Minister Shri @AmitShah on 21st June and communicated to Delhi Govt on 22.06.20,” the spokesperson of the MHA said in a tweet.

According to a statement issued by the LG’s office, those who test positive for the coronavirus through the rapid antigen test will be clinically examined by a medical officer at the testing site to assess the severity of the illness. The assessment made by the medical officer on site “shall effectively constitute an assessment made at the COVID Care Centre”.

Those who test positive through the RT-PCR test will be assessed by a home isolation team sent by the district surveillance officer. The team will check the severity of the infection of the patient and whether he is eligible for home isolation.

Home isolation is allowed for the patients with mild symptoms, provided they have a residence of two rooms or a separate room and a separate toilet for the patient.

Sisodia said the earlier system will again be followed in the national capital, where a medical team of the Delhi government will visit a patient’s home, check the symptoms and their severity.

If the medical team finds the symptoms severe or that the patient has comorbidities, it would send him to a hospital. Also, in the absence of a provision or arrangement of home isolation for asymptomatic patients, the medical team will refer such patients to a quarantine centre.

Last week, the LG had made a five-day mandatory institutional quarantine provision for all coronavirus patients, a move that the AAP government had termed arbitrary and one that would hurt Delhi.

After protests, the decision was amended, but the LG made a clinical assessment of all coronavirus patients at a COVID-care centre mandatory. This too was opposed by the AAP government.

“We held discussions with them and requested scrapping of this order. Eventually, they agreed,” Sisodia said.

He said the system, where every coronavirus patient had to visit a COVID-care centre, was adding to people’s woes.

“You do not have to stand in a queue. Home isolation is a good system and over 30,000 people have recovered in home isolation. We should not do away with such a system, because it increases people’s problems,” the deputy chief minister said.

As on Thursday, with 73,780 coronavirus cases, Delhi has surpassed Mumbai to become the worst-hit city in the country by the pandemic.

In a related development, teams are being formed by drawing personnel from various departments to implement the Delhi government’s revised COVID-19 response plan that includes door-to-door surveys for screening coronavirus-infected persons.

Completing the house-to-house screening by July 6, admitting the positive patients in highly population-dense areas to COVID-care centres and CCTV or drone-monitoring to prohibit movement inside the containment zones are among the eight points of the revised COVID-19 response plan issued by the AAP government.

The house-to-house screening will be completed by June 30 in the containment zones and by July 6 for the rest of Delhi, in a mammoth exercise, according to the revised plan.

District-level officials said teams for the exercise are being formed with booth-level officers, civil defence volunteers, anganwadi workers and civic bodies staff among others.

Meanwhile, chief minister Arvind Kejriwal launched a video-call facility for the coronavirus patients admitted at the Lok Nayak Jai Prakash (LNJP) hospital here to talk to their loved ones.

LNJP was declared a COVID-19 hospital on March 17 and since then, it has successfully treated 2,700 coronavirus patients and sent them home. It is the only COVID-19 hospital in the country with 2,000 beds, Kejriwal said.

‘Appalling Neglect’: Women’s Body Submits Memorandum to NHRC Over Kanpur Shelter Home Case

The All India Democratic Women’s Association has pointed to the rampant misinformation, flawed testing and glaring POCSO violations that media reports point to.

New Delhi: The All India Democratic Women’s Association on Wednesday submitted a memorandum to the National Human Rights Commission chairperson on the situation in the Kanpur girls’ shelter home where 57 children have been found to be COVID-19 positive, seven of them pregnant, and one each infected with HIC and Hepatitis C. The shelter home is run by the Uttar Pradesh government.

The memorandum takes note of the notice issued suo motu by NHRC to Uttar Pradesh DGP and chief secretary regarding the blithe disregard for children’s health and wellbeing at the Rajkiya Bal Sanrakshan Griha, Kanpur.

It was submitted by AIDWA vice-president Subhashini Ali, Kanpur District Committee president Neelam Tiwari and the district committee’s secretary Sudha Singh.

Also read: Kanpur: 57 Girls at Children’s Shelter Home Test COVID-19 Positive, 5 of Them Pregnant

A press release issued by AIDWA notes that members met with senior superintendent of police Dinesh Kumar and requested a serious investigation into the running of the home, with special attention to ensure that evidence was not tampered with by the home’s management. The association also met the Commissioner of the Kanpur Division, Dr. Sudhir M. Bobde, whom they asked to ascertain whether the pregnant girls had been told that they had the legal right to demand an abortion and whether they had been receiving regular check-ups.

There are several issues, said the members, pertaining to the matter, which point to the “extreme neglect of the state government.”

Key among the problems is the fact that coupled with overall neglect in quarantining the COVID-19 patients, the home has been glib in managing the futures of minor girls who have been POCSO victims, many of whom have given birth. The statement points to the particular and appalling neglect shown towards mentally-challenged girls and demands attention to both the particular situation and the general crisis at work in the home.

The highlighted issues are:

“1. On June 14, one inmate was found to be COVID-19 positive after five inmates were subjected to a ‘random’ test. (Here it must be mentioned that there are several versions of how the presence of the virus was discovered.) What is irrefutable – and this has been pointed out by Shuchita Chaturvedi, Member State Child Welfare Commission, yesterday during her visit to Kanpur – is that even after one child was found positive on June 14, the others were not quarantined. This is unforgivable.

2. The home is extremely over-crowded. It is supposed to accommodate about 100 minors but there are at least 171.  There are only 9 toilets. In such a situation, especially when sanitary conditions leave much to be desired, it is not surprising that the virus spread in the way that it did.  

3. Many young, mentally-challenged minors, several of them rape victims, are also lodged here. They have delivered babies and, we have been told, they are not able to look after them so they are looked after by the other inmates, some of whom are 10 and 12 years of age. It is shocking that these mentally challenged pregnant minors were not helped to access abortions. What is going to be the fate of their children and the mothers is beyond our imagination.  

4. As far as the seven pregnant girls of whom five are COVID-19 positive are concerned, the reports of their being infected with HIV and Hepatitis C are now being denied.

It is a fact, however, that earlier reports had given this information. Even the Notice sent by your Commission to the UP officers mentions one inmate being HIV positive. Today’s Amar Ujala reports that after being found to be COVID-19 positive, they were sent to the Rama Medical College (Mandhana) where their being pregnant was established. 

How is it that the Home Administration did not reveal this important fact?  After this, they were shifted to the Maternity Hospital and here the Screening Test showed one to be HIV positive and the other to be Hepatitis C positive.  Subsequently, their samples were sent to the Microbiology Lab of the Medical College and the results came negative for both. The point is that the administration of the home was not able to give any information regarding the health status of the pregnant girls which is strange since they should have been examined by a gynaecologist every month.”

 

Kanpur Shelter Home: NCPCR Asks UP Govt to Ensure Proper Treatment of COVID-19 Positive Girls

The Commission said it is closely monitoring the situation and is in touch with state authorities on the matter.

New Delhi:The apex child rights body, NCPCR, has asked the UP government to ensure proper treatment and protection of 57 girls who tested positive for the coronavirus infection at a government-run shelter home in Kanpur.

In a statement, the National Commission for Protection of Child Rights (NCPCR) said its chairperson Priyank Kanoongo on Monday sought details of the matter from the UP State Commission for Protection of Child Rights.

The statement said that one member of the UP state commission visited the shelter home on June 17 to carry out an inspection.

Also watch: In Kanpur, a Shelter Home Becomes a Hotspot, Over 57 Inmates Test Positive

The state commission issued instructions to the authorities concerned for measures to provide treatment and adequate safety to the girls affected by COVID-19, the statement said.

The NCPCR has also asked the UP government to ensure proper treatment and protection to the girls, it said.

The Commission said it is closely monitoring the situation and is in touch with state authorities on the matter.

Five of the girls were pregnant and one HIV positive. The Kanpur district administration on Sunday had clarified that the girls were pregnant at the time they came to the shelter home.

Delhi HC Refuses to Pass Direction to Ensure No Overcharging by Private Hospitals

In case of overcharging, an aggrieved party may approach the court with a specific prayer against a hospital, the court said.

New Delhi: A bench of Chief Justice D.N. Patel and Justice Prateek Jalan said though the issue raised in the plea is good, it cannot pass any general directions in the public interest litigation, which would be difficult to implement.

At this stage, we are not inclined to issue any directions the bench said during the hearing via video conferencing.

The court disposed of the petition filed by social activist and advocate Amit Sahni who referred to May 24 circular of the Delhi government regarding payment for treatment issued by a private hospital.

The bench said in case of overcharging, an aggrieved party may approach the court with a specific prayer against such hospital and general directions cannot be passed in a PIL.

The court asked Sahni to approach the Delhi government with the grievance raised in the petition.

The plea has modification of the May 24 circular issued by the Delhi government which stated these private hospitals shall bill the COVID-19 patients as per their respective schedule of charges. However, the billing for non-COVID-19 patients admitted on the extra beds shall not be more than 50 per cent of the lower economy category of concerned hospital as per earlier practice during upsurge of cases of vector borne disease.

The petition has said considering the increase in COVID-19 cases, the state government has declared various hospitals as COVID-19 hospitals and by its June 3 order, the authorities declared three private hospitals as COVID-19 Hospitals Mool Chand Khairati Lal Hospital, Saroj Super Specialty Hospital and Sir Ganga Ram Hospital.

These hospitals are obliged to provide 10 per cent IPD and 25 per cent OPD services to patients belonging to the economically weaker section (EWS).

The petitioner has highlighted that he has come across a circular issued by one of these private COVID -19 hospital, which has fixed 3 lakhs as a minimum bill for COVID-19 patients and that patient will be admitted only after advance of Rs 4 lakhs in 2 bedded / 3 bedded category and Rs 5 Lakhs in single room and Rs 8 Lakhs in ICU.

The State being a welfare state has to ensure that private hospitals do not charge patients exorbitantly and also to ensure that those who require immediate medical attention/intensive care, are not denied admission due to paucity of funds, the PIL has said.

The plea has said it has not impleaded COVID-19 hospitals as party to the petition since the directions sought are against the government to ensure justice with its citizens during the crisis of pandemic.

The respondents (Delhi government) are duty bound to ensure that the private hospitals do not overcharge public particularly when the government hospitals do not have sufficient infrastructure to accommodate all patients suffering from Covid-19, it has said.

Before COVID, Shamli’s Frontline Relief Worker Had to Fight the Men

In western Uttar Pradesh, a women’s self-help group is taking the lead in spreading awareness about the coronavirus and ensuring that much-needed relief supplies reach the right hands.

Shamli (Uttar Pradesh): Her bronze sari with red sequined flowers gleamed in the afternoon sun. It was calculated to have just the right amount of drama without making too much of a statement. Sudha was in a commanding position in her village, Nala, in the district of Shamli, as she set up a desk at the front porch of her house, to begin distributing COVID emergency relief kits.

Her superior position was enough to set off competitors and jealous neighbours. This was Uttar Pradesh, where men ruled. But in the last two and a half years, Sudha had fought enough of them as head of a women’s collective across 14 villages. Now that seven hundred people of a total of 6,000 in her village were completely out of food, Sudha was in a unique position to help. As she sat down, back ramrod straight, ready with her list of most-deserving candidates, she acknowledged how far she had come from the time she started out by being labelled a slut and a pimp.

Yeh madam ban rahi hai gaon ki  – She’s becoming the madame of the village,” said one woman. “Aur dekhna ek din aise hoga yeh gaadi me bhar ke sab ko le jayengi saath me aur ganda ganda kaam karwayengi. Wait and watch, she will take all the women away by the car-full and make them do really dirty things.”

It all began with a knock on the door from women social workers attached to the government. They had come from Hyderabad and were asking women to form self-help groups or SHGs so they could apply for small loans and start small businesses. “Job lag gayi hai meri – I’ve been selected for a job,” Sudha said excitedly to her husband, Angrez Singh.

Angrez Singh was a man’s man. The way he sat with his chest out and surveyed the territory in front of him spoke for itself. “Naukri nahi karani hai – I will not have you work,” was his firm reply. But Sudha had a stirring within that she was unable to suppress. The women from the National Rural Livelihood Mission re-kindled a fire that was burning inside her ever since Sudha was a little girl. Growing up in the district of Bulandshahr in UP, she would close her eyes in front of the gods in temples and pray to them, asking to be made a working woman or a woman who travels and gets to see the world outside. She was married off instead when she was just in class ten, and in her new home in Shamli district, the only role she was expected to play was that of the good wife with her head covered at all times, face never to be exposed to people outside. After having three children and settling for the prescribed role, a knock on the door from the government proved to be a godsend.

Sudha prepares COVID kits for distribution (left) .Outside the house (right), she keeps her head covered. Photo: Revati Laul

Mai aapka sar neecha nahi honey doongi – I will not do anything to take away from your honour,” she assured her man. He relented. With her initial loan, Sudha started a beauty business – women could buy makeup and she also provided parlour services in her home. Other women were even more audacious in their choices. Kavita became a mechanic, inspired by her husband who found out that making LED lights at home was a very profitable business.

In the last two and a half years, the SHG groups’ economic independence was threatening to overturn the entire village’s economy. Social activist Ashvani Singh who has worked with Sudha for the last year and a half explained. Women in rural Shamli mainly get work as agricultural labourers on wages that are much lower than their male counterparts. “If the men are paid 300 rupees a day, then women get anywhere between 120 to 180 rupees for the same work,” said Singh. If they stopped doing this work, the landowners would have to pay men more, upsetting their calculus entirely.

The more they asserted themselves, the more trouble the women were in, when the lockdowns part 1-4 put their battles temporarily on hold.  Five days before the first lockdown, Sanjo, a Dalit woman who was part of Sudha’s group, was emptying the trash, when a man from the most dominant caste in the area – the Jats – told her that as a Dalit woman, she could not put out the garbage where dominant castes did. Sanjo, now armed with her new woman-centric strong coat, spoke back: “If you can throw your kachda here, so can I.” For this, she was shoved into the drain because even though her words were menacing, her frame was slight.

Sanjo put up a fight against a Jat man and for this she was beaten up. Photo: Revati Laul

Covered in muck, she got out and yelled back at the Jat man – “Kuttey – you dog.” This was too much for his caste ego so he ended up hitting her on the chest with bricks. The women rallied around in support and charges were filed with the local police. However, in an ugly twist, the Jats surrounded Sanjo and threatened to decimate her family unless she retracted her charges. Which she did. Sudha was planning to take further action, when India went into lockdown mode. Sanjo was so battered and bruised she could barely stand. She and her husband were both brick kiln workers and with those being mostly shut, they had nothing to eat. There were many others in the SHGs in similarly precarious positions.

At this point, Sudha, having created a network both with the government and civil society groups, asked NGOs to come and distribute rations.  A lot was at stake. Feathers had been ruffled in villages across Shamli, starting with the pradhan or head of her own village. There were two opposing narratives here, instead of one, which in itself told the story of how assertive these women had got.

Narrative one – in which Sudha and her groups said they were up against a powerful and irate man. A spark was lit when these women were in a meeting where a social activist made a rousing speech:  “We must start be resolving our own basic issues – over roads and electricity, water and rations. Only then will we seen as a force to reckon with. Otherwise anything we say about resolving other women’s issues will seem like a cruel joke.” Sudha and the SHGs in her care immediately put this to the test. They demanded that a road be built in a part of a village that had been so badly clogged with sewage and silt that it was impossible to get in or out, especially when it rained. In their version of events, their request kept getting blocked by the village pradhan – Pravin Kumar. They were forced to by-pass him and go up to the district magistrate.

Narrative two: In Pravin Kumar’s version, he had the road built. “Budget government se hamari li, gram panchayat humney karaya, usme samuh kya karega? The money came from the village coffers, their group had nothing to do with it.”

Shamli gets relief for now. Photo: Revati Laul

Now, by calling in an NGO, Sudha was taking on the pradhan again, just by the sheer optics of it. Helming a COVID relief operation that was a private initiative challenged Pravin Kumar’s role as the patriarch-provider. D day was tense. Men playing cards in the street, commented as Sudha got into a car with an NGO person. “Bhundhi thuthdi,” a slur in the locally spoken Braj bhasha – “the woman with the ugly face.”

As the truck full of potatoes and rice, masalas, dal, sanitary pads and condoms rolled in, Sudha and her associates pored over lists. Who to include and who to leave out? The social activist Ashvani Singh who was native to Shamli put Sudha’s operation in context. He had seen relief being distributed in other villages with a dominant caste Jat man at the helm. “It was calculated to add to his vote-bank. The poorest, the migrants, those whose votes didn’t count locally, were left out.” Far worse was the patronising language used, said Ashvani, “Bhaiyo bhukke logon ke liye khana hai. Yeh iske liye khana hai jo bhukka mar raha hai bilkul. This food is for the wretched and hungry, it’s for those people dying of starvation. Words that break the spirit of those being given rations.”

Now, with Sudha at the helm, care was taken to draw up lists of the most deserving without fear or favour. All those who got rations in the last round were struck off the list, even when they were members of SHGs. A brawl broke out.  A frail looking woman with white hair and a fierce manner threatened to call the police. “I will have the lot of you arrested if you don’t give me some!” she shrieked. Sudha stormed into the house, past her desk, to an inner room and slammed the door. Her face was flushed with anger. “I cannot take this anymore,” she said in an outburst. Her sons and daughter and husband rallied around.

Relief supplies being distributed in Shamli. Photo: Revati Laul

Angrez Singh was by now very proud of his wife’s achievements, so he pitched in and fended off the angry woman. And followed it up with another surprise. He put colas and namkeen on a tray and served those who were waiting. There was so much humility and acceptance in his act, that Sudha finally melted. Her trademark smile was back. She marched back into the arena, glasses in place, register in hand, to call out the names of the next people on the list. Her pallu covered her face, presenting to the world a strange paradox – a woman in charge who was also, the mythical unchanging, submissive, good wife.

Revati Laul is an independent journalist and film-maker and the author of `The Anatomy of Hate,’ published by Westland/Context. This story is the result of a Laadli media fellowship, but the facts and ideas presented are the writer’s responsibility.