Tag: Chhattisgarh elections

Modi Says Congress Failed To ‘Control Naxal Violence’ – Union Government Data Shows Otherwise

A look at the home ministry’s data on reduction of Maoist violence over the years belies the prime minister’s claims of increase in Maoist violence in Chhattisgarh.

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi said at a rally in Chhattisgarh on Tuesday, November 7, that whenever the Congress comes to power, incidents of terrorism and Maoist violence increase and accused the grand old party of failing to contain Maoist violence in the poll-bound state.

“Whenever Congress comes to power, the courage of terrorists and Naxalites increases in the country… The Congress government has failed to control Naxal violence,” he said at a rally in Bishrampur, Surajpur.

“Wherever you see there is news of bombs going off in one place or the other, killings here and there. Such news would come. In whichever state the Congress is in power, crimes, loot and plunder rule. Congress has been unsuccessful in containing Naxal violence. In recent times several BJP workers have been taken away from us. A few days ago, one of our workers was shot dead,” he said.

However, a look at the Union government’s own data on Maoist violence over the years belies Prime Minister Modi’s claims about Maoist violence in Chhattisgarh. In fact, Union home minister Amit Shah, during the campaign, noted the reduction in Maoist violence and gave credit to his party.

MHA data shows reduction in Maoist violence 

According to data available on the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) website, there has been a decline in the number of civilians killed by Left Wing Extremism (LWE) since 2010.

Civilian deaths have fallen consistently over the past few years, from 722 in 2010 to 82 in 2022.

Year Civilian deaths
2010 720
2011 469
2012 301
2013 282
2014 222
2015 171
2016 213
2017 188
2018 173
2019 150
2020 140
2021 97
2022 82

Source: MHA

In terms of attacks on economic infrastructures, the number of incidents or attacks also decreased since 2010, the same website shows. The attacks decreased from 365 in 2010 to 42 each in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

Year Incidents/attacks on economic structures
2010 365
2011 293
2012 214
2013 169
2014 100
2015 127
2016 79
2017 75
2018 60
2019 64
2020 47
2021 42
2022 42

Source: MHA

Replies in parliament also note decline in LWE incidents

In a written reply in the Rajya Sabha in the monsoon session that ended on August 11, the MHA stated that according to the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution, police and public order are with the state governments. 

“However, to address Left Wing Extremism (LWE) menace holistically, Government of India (GoI) approved ‘National Policy and Action Plan to address LWE’ in 2015 envisaging a multi-pronged strategy involving security-related measures, development interventions, ensuring rights and entitlements of local communities etc. Steadfast implementation of this policy has resulted in consistent decline in LWE-related violence and its geographical spread,” said the written reply dated August 9, by MoS Home Nityanand Rai.

Rai also provided a year-wise breakup of LWE incidents and deaths since 2018.

Year Incidents Deaths
2018 833 240
2019 670 202
2020 665 183
2021 509 147
2022 413*

118**

 98
2023 (TILL JULY 15) 273*

63**

 79

Source: Reply in Rajya Sabha (August 9, 2023)

*Incidents perpetrated by Left Wing Extremists

**Incidents initiated by Security Forces

In 2018, there were 833 incidents and 240 deaths in the country, followed by 670 incidents and 202 deaths in 2019, 665 incidents and 183 deaths in 2020, 509 incidents and 147 deaths in 2021. From 2022, the data shows the number of incidents perpetrated by LWEs and incidents initiated by the security forces. There were 413 incidents perpetrated by LWEs and 118 incidents initiated by security forces, while 98 deaths were recorded that year. In 2023 (till July 15), there were 273 incidents perpetrated by LWE and 63 incidents initiated by the security forces, along with 79 deaths.

In response to a question by Chhattisgarh MP Deepak Baij, Rai said in a written reply in Lok Sabha on March 21 that there “has been significant improvement” in the LWE security situation in the country in the last five years.

Rai also provided specific figures on Chhattisgarh that stated:

Year Violent incidents by LWE Incidents initiated by security forces Security forces personnel killed Civilians killed LWE killed
2018 275 117 55 98 125
2019 182 81 22 55 79
2020 241 74 36 75 44
2021 188 67 45 56 48
2022 246 59 10 51 31
2023 (up to February 28) 37 04 07 10 1

Source: Written reply in Lok Sabha (March 21, 2023)

Amit Shah claims credit for decline in Maoist violence

While Modi said on Tuesday that incidents of Maoist violence have increased, last month addressing a rally in Jagdalpur, home minister Amit Shah said that Maoist incidents have declined in the last nine years.

“In nine years of the Modi government, incidents of (Naxal) violence declined by 52%, deaths (in Maoist violence) came down by 70%, civilian deaths decreased by 68%, while the (number of) Naxal-affected districts declined by 62%,” he was quoted as saying.

After chairing a review meeting of LWE with state chief ministers and top security officials on October 6, the MHA in a press release also gave similar figures.

In an interview with The Wire, Baij, who is the Chhattisgarh Congress chief, accused the Union government of trying to take credit for the decline in Maoist incidents and pointed to contradictory statements by BJP leaders.

“The Union government is trying to take credit for the good work done by the Chhattisgarh government. These are double standards in the Union government’s policies and this won’t work. Amit Shah says something, [BJP president J.P.] Nadda says something else. Different leaders are saying different things and they are not on the same page on this [matter] either. But the Chhattisgarh government has done good work and there is peace in Bastar,” he said.

In February, Nadda – like Modi – claimed that Naxal activities had increased in Chhattisgarh under the Congress government.

Amit Shah at Muzaffarpur. Photo: X/@AmitShah

Union government’s role in controlling LWE

According to the MHA’s division to tackle LWE, which was created in 2006, the Union government’s role is to deal with it in a “holistic manner” while the primary responsibility lies with state governments.

“In dealing with this decades-old problem, it has been felt appropriate, after various high-level deliberations and interactions with the State Governments concerned, that an integrated approach aimed at the relatively more affected areas would deliver results. With this in view, a detailed analysis of the spread and trends in respect of Left Wing Extremist violence has been made and 70 districts in ten States have been taken up for special attention with regard to planning, implementation and monitoring various interventions. However, ‘Police’ and ‘Public Order’ being State subjects, action on maintenance of law and order, lies primarily in the domain of the State Governments. The Central Government closely monitors the situation and supplements and coordinates their efforts in several ways,” it says.

These efforts include providing the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs); sanction of India Reserve (IR) battalions; setting up of Counter Insurgency and Anti-Terrorism (CIAT) schools; modernisation and upgradation of the State Police and their Intelligence apparatus; reimbursement of security-related expenditure under the Security-related Expenditure (SRE) Scheme; providing helicopters, training, sharing intelligence, facilitating inter-state coordination, etc. 

“The underlying philosophy is to enhance the capacity of the State Governments to tackle the Maoist menace in a concerted manner,” it says.

Chhattisgarh: Congress Eases Tensions By making Singh Deo Deputy CM

The move was aimed at ensuring that the voter base is not lost. But it remains to be seen how the dynamics between Singh Deo and Bhupesh Baghel pan out.

Raipur: Ahead of the assembly elections in Chhattisgarh, expected to be held towards the end of the year, the Congress party has appointed T.S. Singh Deo as the deputy chief minister on June 27.

The move comes after a tussle between chief minister Bhupesh Baghel and Singh Deo over a change in the leadership led to a crisis within the Congress party.

The Congress held a meeting to discuss poll strategy in which party president Mallikarjun Kharge, Baghel, Singh Deo, Chhattisgarh Pradesh Congress Committee chief Mohan Markam, state in-charge Kumari Selja, party secretary K.C. Venugopal and former Congress president Rahul Gandhi were present.

According to sources in the party, Baghel was called for a one-on-one meeting with Gandhi, Venugopal and Selja before meeting other Congress members. Similarly, Singh Deo also met them separately after the meeting with all members ended, The Wire has learnt.

Both of them were believed to be contenders for the top post after the 2018 election. There was reportedly an agreement that power would be shared equally between Baghel and Singh Deo for a period of 2.5 years each.

However, in 2021, the mid-point of the five-year term, the party didn’t change the leadership in the state.

Amid rumours of a change of guard, Baghel went to New Delhi to meet the top leadership in September 2021, in a show of strength to prevent such a move.

Following that, factions within the party became apparent, with targeted attacks against Singh Deo and his supporters from Baghel’s supporters becoming sharper.

The events had led to Singh Deo staging a walk-out from the assembly after allegations were levied against him from within his own party. He also quit one of the departments he was in charge of, through a public letter.

While both the leaders had dismissed the feud publicly, the tension between them seemed obvious.

Moreover, the party had continuously denied any arrangement between the two leaders on power-sharing.

Also read: Chhattisgarh: The Curious Case of Bhupesh Baghel’s Populist Moves

T.S. Singh Deo’s appointment

At the meeting on June 27, the Congress leadership confirmed that the party would fight the upcoming election under the leadership of Baghel and with all the leaders working together. After the group meeting, however, a one-on-one meeting was sought with Singh Deo, sources in the party told The Wire.

In the meeting, Singh Deo, who had been offered the post of deputy chief minister earlier as well, was once again given the offer, which he accepted. According to sources close to him, he seemed to have accepted the offer at the insistence of the party’s top brass.

“Hon’ble Congress president has approved the proposal for the appointment of Shri T. S. Singh Deo as the deputy chief minister in the Chhattisgarh government,” read an order passed by party secretary Venugopal on Tuesday evening.

While the order didn’t clarify who proposed the same, it is understood within the party that it came directly from Rahul Gandhi, who seems to have a soft spot for Singh Deo and has publicly lauded him for his work on the Congress manifesto.

“I am a loyal Congressman. The party has given me a responsibility and I will fulfil it to the best of my ability while ensuring the strength of the party before the election,” said Singh Deo.

On June 28, Singh Deo reached Raipur and then he left for the Patan constituency in the Durg district – which is the home ground of chief minister Baghel – for a ‘Youth Jodo, Booth Jodo’ campaign.

Interestingly, the chief minister’s son, Chaitanya Baghel, accompanied Singh Deo. Chaitanya, who is a novice in political circles, drove Singh Deo around the constituency in his own vehicle.

T.S. Singh Deo. Photo: Twitter/@TS_SinghDeo

According to political analysts, the move is aimed at reducing tensions in the party before the upcoming elections. It is also aimed at ensuring that the voter base is not lost.

“Singh Deo has a huge following in Sarguja, and in other regions like Raigarh and Bastar. His influence is expected to have an impact on at least 38 seats in the upcoming election. The move seems to be geared towards that,” said a political expert from Chhattisgarh.

Some experts also believe that Singh Deo is the party’s contingency plan due to the continuous targeting of Baghel by the central probe agencies. Several people close to the Chhattisgarh chief minister and his son, including a former aid Saumya Chaurasia, have been arrested.

Others say this move is aimed at diminishing the influence of several ambitious faces within the party, who all considered themselves as potential successors to Baghel, because of their proximity to him.

“When the cabinet was declared in 2018, it was clear that Bhupesh Baghel was on top followed by Singh Deo. However, over the past four years, Singh Deo had slid down that scale. The Congress party seems to have addressed that. Without shaking the position of Baghel, the party leaders have clearly indicated that Singh Deo is a leader of senior stature with relevance and he cannot be taken lightly,” said the political expert cited above.

“In the past three years, the people of Sarguja found their trust wavering. But now, by making Singh Deo deputy CM, the people know that their leader has been reinstated in the race. This has definitely helped boost the morale of workers and trust among the voters,” said a Congress party member.

But it seems there are different opinions within the party on Singh Deo’s position and role.

It is believed that he had to make compromises regarding the top job. “He wanted to be the chief minister but he just got a title [of deputy chief minister], that too months before the election. This is a compromise which might not mean much [to him]. In fact, it makes him liable for a lot of the government’s decisions, regardless of whether he, personally, agrees with them or not,” said a Congress supporter, requesting anonymity.

Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has criticised Singh Deo’s appointment as the deputy CM.

Former chief minister Raman Singh tweeted that the Congress party seems to be sidelining Bhupesh Baghel by providing Singh Deo with a contractual appointment. He added that the people of Sarguja may perceive this as an insulting move.

The tweet, in Hindi, said that the “Congress has realised that the groundwork of their government is full of corruption and that is why [they have made] this sudden posting to project a positive image.”

While Singh Deo has received attention and responsibilities, it remains to be seen how the dynamics between the Congress’s two top leaders pan out.

Ahead of Elections in Chhattisgarh, Congress Appoints Singh Deo as Deputy CM

Singh Deo is a “loyal Congress leader and an able administrator” and the state will “benefit greatly from his services as deputy CM”, said Congress leader K.C. Venugopal, adding that the party is confident about getting re-elected.

New Delhi: The Congress on Wednesday, June 28, appointed T.S. Singh Deo, who has been at loggerheads with chief minister Bhupesh Baghel, as the deputy CM of Chhattisgarh ahead of assembly elections in the state later this year.

In a tweet, Congress general secretary (organisation) K.C. Venugopal said that party presidet Mallikarjun Kharge has “approved the proposal” for Singh Deo’s appointment as the deputy CM of Chhattisgarh.

“He is a loyal Congress leader and an able administrator. The state will benefit greatly from his services as Deputy CM. We are confident that the people of Chattisgarh will re-elect the Congress with a thumping majority under the leadership of Kharge ji and Rahul Gandhi ji,” the tweet said.

Singh Deo resigned as the minister of the panchayat raj and rural development in July 2022, accusing the state government of not alloting funds to build houses under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.

At the time of the Congress’s victory in the 2018 assembly elections, there was reportedly an agreement for Baghel and Singh Deo to share power for two-and-a-half-years each. Since 2021, the mid-point of the five year term, Singh Deo has levelled allegations of corruption against Baghel.

Chattisgarh will go to the polls later this year, along with Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana.

With Internal Fights Raging, Upcoming State Elections May Not Be Smooth Sailing for the BJP

In at least three poll-bound states, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, organisational problems and factionalism loom large within the BJP.

New Delhi: Ever since the Bharatiya Janata Party faced a humiliating defeat in Karnataka at the hands of the Congress, it has been buffeted by one crisis after another. The saffron party has had to face at least two major governmental crises – the Balasore train tragedy and the CoWIN data leak, even as it was busy quelling middle-class backlash against the sudden withdrawal of Rs 2,000 notes and the newly-announced taxation on international credit card transactions.

The damage control, however, appeared undone in the face of multiple rebellions brewing within its own rank and file in many states. Flooded by challenges too many, the usually resolute central leadership that had been hitherto firm in handling the protesting wrestlers yielded to some of their demands. Both Union home minister Amit Shah and sports minister Anurag Thakur have reportedly assured the Olympians that Uttar Pradesh MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, who is facing allegations of sexual harassment, will not be allowed to continue as the Wrestling Federation of India’s president and legal action will be taken against him soon – something that the Delhi police’s swift chargesheet against the MP after these assurances also signalled.

Clearly, the saffron party is beset with unforeseen problems that seems to have taken the sheen off from its perception as a disciplined and inspired political force. With the opposition, especially the Congress, finding a new spring under its feet after a comprehensive victory in Karnataka, the Narendra Modi-led BJP appears to be struggling with multiple challenges that it faces in the penultimate year of its second tenure at the Centre.

In at least three poll-bound states, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, organisational problems and factionalism loom large.

Madhya Pradesh

In Madhya Pradesh, there is a sense of fatigue against the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government that has been in power since 2005. The central leadership has given the mantle to the popular Chouhan – once seen as Modi’s rival – to steer the assembly elections once again, but the state unit has only been in the news for its factional fights. In 2018, the party had lost power but upstaged the Kamal Nath-led Congress government after 23 MLAs under the leadership of Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia defected to the BJP. Those former Congress legislators have now become a thorn in the BJP’s scheme of things. The party will have to make a choice between those former Congress legislators and BJP loyalists when it puts out its list of candidates. The inclusion of these rebels in the party and the state government has left many aspirants in the BJP disillusioned – a reason, observers say, for the lack of excitement among the BJP cadres and leaders.

Scindia too has brought out a rival faction to Chouhan, who is already facing the heat from other BJP factions led by state home minister Narottam Mishra, state BJP chief V.D. Sharma, and BJP veterans Kailash Vijayvargiya, Prahlad Patel and Narendra Singh Tomar. The factional fights have often come to light as the leaders have taken each other on in their statements while the party prepares itself to battle the Congress in the state. Moreover, multiple BJP MLAs in the recent past have expressed their dissent publicly and have alleged that their concerns and worries were either not being heard by the party leadership or being deliberately steamrolled.

Also read: Why Bengaluru Voted for the BJP When Karnataka Voted It Out

In the last two months, the party has also lost some very important leaders and workers to the Congress. Veteran BJP leader Kailash Joshi’s son Deepak Joshi and senior leader Rao Yadvendra Yadav have already joined the Congress, disgruntled with the importance accorded to Scindia, while the former Scindia loyalist Baijnath Singh Yadav too has rejoined the Congress, all in a matter of the last few months. Speculations are rife that more from the BJP will join the grand old party in the run-up to the assembly polls.

All such exits have come on top of the heavy losses that the party has had to suffer in constituencies with Dalit and Adivasi strongholds. In 2018, many of these seats were won by the Congress, and although high command appointee and senior leader P. Muralidhar Rao carried out an organisational revival exercise last year, things haven’t really been very rewarding for the BJP.

Contrastingly, the Congress, observers say, has looked united under the leadership of Kamal Nath for the first time in the last two decades. Scindia’s exit has helped the Congress come together. The party’s campaign got a kickstart with the Bharat Jodo Yatra last year; its leaders have since then carried out energetic campaigns in their respective strongholds and have tried to corner the Chouhan government on issues of corruption, price rise and unemployment.

Chhattisgarh

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP has to contend with the Congress’s hegemony of sorts in all spheres. Congress chief minister Bhupesh Baghel has been so dominant that most BJP leaders, barring former chief minister Raman Singh, have been absent from the political scene. Baghel has managed to consolidate a large number of communities, and the Congress has prevented the BJP from polarising the electorate along religious lines with some tactical moves. Baghel has also been responsible for some prominent defections from the BJP, including that of former MP and former chairman of the National Commission for Scheduled Tribes, Nand Kumar Sai.

Rajasthan

Similarly, in Rajasthan, the BJP hasn’t decided who will lead its campaign. That the Modi-Shah duo has been antithetical to former chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia’s interests is well known, but it still hasn’t managed to find a worthy replacement. Raje Scindia still holds the tallest position in the party, given a majority of BJP MLAs and ticket aspirants favour the former chief minister instead of any new face.

The lack of internal unity is plaguing the party’s growth in the state, even as the Ashok Gehlot-Sachin Pilot rivalry has handed it a great advantage over the Congress. Every few months, the BJP is rumoured to be promoting leaders like Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla and now Arjun Ram Meghwal, the new Union law minister, to replace Raje Scindia. Yet, the leaderless status quo remains, while the party loses valuable time.

Also read: Will the BJP’s Karnataka Loss Have an Impact on Elections in Madhya Pradesh?

Other states

The challenges are not limited to these poll-bound states but have spread over to those where the BJP is comfortably placed in the government. In Manipur, the Meiteis and Kukis within the BJP are up in arms against each other against the backdrop of ongoing ethnic clashes. The Kuki MLAs in the BJP have voiced their opposition to chief minister N. Biren Singh openly. Many of them camped in Delhi to express their dissent, but the central leadership has refused to entertain them for now and is on the lookout for a resolution to the ongoing crisis. The crisis in the party may have revived the energy of the Congress in the state, with a substantial section of people across all communities expressing their support to the Congress amidst the raging violence.

Similar is the case in Tripura, where former chief minister Biplab Kumar Deb and current chief minister Manik Saha have trained their guns at each other. Both have frequently spoken against each other in public forums. Saha was a former Congress MLA who joined the BJP with the support of Deb. Saha remained a Deb loyalist until the central leadership removed Deb from his position and appointed him as the state-in-charge of Haryana. Saha was promoted to the chief minister’s position, fuelling the rivalry between the two BJP leaders. Recently, Deb remarked about Saha is an “outsider” who is damaging the BJP’s prospects in the state, while Saha retorted by saying that the chief minister has vanished from the BJP, and arguing that no one is permanent in a party. The vertical split in the state unit of the party has resulted in multiple legislators from the two camps washing their dirty linen in public. Many of them also camped in the national capital to find a resolution recently.

Political analysts believe that the BJP’s lack of preparedness to retain Jammu and Kashmir through elections is the reason why it has been reluctant to hold assembly elections in the state. An Jammu-based observer told The Wire that heightened corruption during the L-G tenure has damaged the saffron party’s prospects even in Jammu, where it is looking to wrest maximum seats from others. The chaos in the BJP has forced it to open channels of dialogue with former NDA constituents like Sukhbir Badal’s Shiromani Akali Dal, Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka. The central leadership, which was content with dismantling the NDA and exercising hegemony over the polity after the BJP won a majority on its own in 2019, is willing to come to the talking table ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

The tables appear to have turned with BJP’s defeat in Karnataka. Problems like internal factions, leadership crisis and allegations of corruption that it faced in the southern state are issues that the BJP currently faces in all poll-bound states. The party high command is hoping to resolve them as soon as possible but it may not come that easy, as many of these issues are of its own making.

Ahead of Polls, Chhattisgarh Govt Promises Unemployment Monthly Allowance of Rs 2,500

The Congress government in Chhattisgarh had promised the same four years back in the run-up to the 2018 elections. The next Assembly elections in the state are scheduled for November this year. 

New Delhi: In the final budget before the Assembly elections, Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel announced an allowance of Rs 2,500 per month to unemployed youth in the state.

“A new scheme to give allowance to the unemployed will be launched. Under the scheme, unemployed youth in the age group of 18 to 35 years who passed class 12, and with an annual family income of less than 2.50 lakh, will be given an allowance of Rs 2,500 per month,” Baghel, who holds the finance portfolio, said in the Assembly on Monday, according to The Indian Express.

In fact, the Congress government in Chhattisgarh had promised unemployment allowance four years back in the run-up to the 2018 Assembly elections. The Opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state has been slamming Baghel’s government for not living up to its promise thus far. The next Assembly elections in the state are scheduled for November this year.

A total of Rs 250 crore has been earmarked for the scheme.

The government also announced an increase in the amount given under the Social Security Pension Scheme by Rs 500 a month for benefit of destitute, elderly, disabled, widows and abandoned women.

Besides, Baghel said that the government would spend Rs 6,800 crore on input subsidy for major Kharif crops, mostly rice, under the Rajiv Gandhi Kisan Nyay Yojna. Several Congress leaders hailed it as a “masterstroke” coming in the wake of upcoming elections in the state.

Baghel also promised that the honorarium of Anganwadi workers will be increased from Rs 6,500 to Rs 10,000 per month. In the case of Anganwadi helpers, it will go up from Rs 3,250 to Rs 5,000 per month, he said.

The chief minister also said four new medical colleges would come up in Manendragarh, Geedam, Janjgir Champa and Kabirdham districts. A total of Rs 870 crore has also been earmarked for the education sector, with plans to start 101 new Swami Atmanand English medium schools in the state.

Chhattisgarh: How Bastar Became ‘BJP Mukt’

After winning the Chitrakote bypoll, the grand old party controls all 12 seats in the Maoist affected area.

New Delhi: After securing victory in the Chitrakote assembly bypoll of Chhattisgarh on Thursday, the Congress party state president Mohan Markam claimed that Bastar has become BJP mukt (free of BJP). There are a total of 12 assembly seats in the Adivasi concentrated Bastar division and winning the Chitrakote seat has ensured that all the assembly constituencies of the region have come under the Congress’s control. Bastar is also a Maoist affected area.

Though the Congress’s victory is not surprising, experts suggest that a formation such as this – of one party representing all the assembly seats of Bastar – has happened after a long time. Dantewada-based journalist Prabhat Singh expressed that while this victory may not be important in terms of needing to prove a majority, it will still be significant because of two reasons. The first is that the Congress losing the seat would have meant that the party is losing ground despite being in power. “It would have been a reflection on the performance of the state government. Also, this victory sends a message that Congress has completely captured the Bastar region,” Singh told The Wire.

Anil Mishra, news editor (Bastar division) of the local Hindi daily Nai Dunia agreed with Singh and said that retaining the Chitrakote seat, after having won the Dantewada by-election last month, is like regaining the grand old party’s lost base. According to Mishra, at one point of time, the Congress party used to bank on the Bastar region to form its government in the undivided Madhya Pradesh, as it used to have a substantial base there before the formation of Chhattisgarh.

In the Chitrakote assembly by-election (a reserved seat for Scheduled Tribes), Rajman Benjam of the Congress, a first-time candidate, defeated former BJP MLA Lacchuram Kashyap by a margin of 17,856 votes. In the last December 2018 assembly elections, the seat was won by the Congress’s sitting MLA Deepak Baij by defeating BJP’s Lachhuram Kashyap by 12,329 votes. However, in the Loksabha elections in April this year, Baij was elected from the Bastar parliamentary constituency. This was a big achievement for the party because the last time that a Congress candidate had won the Bastar Lok Sabha seat was in the 1991 general elections.

Congress and BJP party flags. Credit: PTI

Congress and BJP party flags. Photo: PTI

In the 2018 assembly elections, Congress had secured victory on 11 out of 12 seats in the region. The only seat it had lost was Dantewada. The seat was won by BJP’s Bhima Mandavi. However, due to Mandavi’s murder in a Maoist attack in April this year, a by-poll was necessitated. In the by-poll last month, BJP had fielded Mandvi’s wife Ojaswi Mandavi, who lost to Devti Karma, the wife of senior Congress leader Mahendra Karma, who was killed in the Jhiram Valley Maoist attack in 2013.

Chief minister Bhupesh Baghel has credited the victory to the pro-tribal policies and programmes of the Congress government in the State. “This victory is a stamp on the programmes adopted by our government,” he told mediapersons after the result was announced. Baghel also said, “This win is because of the direction of pro-tribal work by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi… Party workers have proven that there is no substitute for hard work…”.

It can be noted that in June this year, Baghel had announced that the state government would be launching two new schemes for tribals in Bastar. According to a PTI report, the state government would provide nutritious food to forest-dwelling communities to combat malnutrition and as part of another scheme, the tribals would have access to mobile healthcare facilities in weekly markets. “Bastar region has the highest malnutrition level across Chhattisgarh. We have inherited this problem and are committed to completely eradicate it,” Baghel said. According to Singh, the mobile healthcare facilities in weekly markets has become functional.

“There is another reason why the Congress was able to consolidate its ground in Bastar”, Mishra told The Wire, adding that “it is the returning of the land to the tribals that had been acquired for iron ore mining.” In December last year, after coming to power, the Baghel government initiated the process of returning land acquired from Adivasis of Bastar for the Tata Steel Project in 2008. The Congress party in its manifesto had promised that all land acquired from farmers for industrial purposes, on which no projects had been started within five years of the date of acquisition, would be returned.

According to a recent news report by Business Standard, the returning of land was an important driving factor during the by-poll. “The issue of returning land to the tribals was one of the major factors in the by-poll and people, especially from the affected villages came out to vote in large numbers,” Rajendra Vajpayee, a political observer in Jagdalpur (Bastar) told the newspaper.

Experts also believe that the announcement of releasing innocent Adivasis has also helped in defeating the BJP. In February, the state government had constituted a committee headed by retired Supreme Court judge, Justice A.K. Patnaik to look into allegations of police atrocities and illegal detentions of Adivasis in the name of fighting Maoists.

Decrying the claim that Bastar has become BJP mukt, former minister and senior BJP leader Rajesh Munat said that this should not be seen as a rejection of the BJP. “The verdict might not be in the BJP’s favour but we have got the same number of votes as last time,” he told a local TV channel. Munat also alleged that the Congress party had used state machinery to secure the verdict in its favour.

We Are Witnessing the End of Ajit Jogi’s Political Career

Ajit Jogi has had a rollercoaster of a political trajectory, and risen again after many a fall. But now, it looks like his time in the electoral arena has come to an end.

Narendra Modi may or may not come back to power, but lost somewhere on the larger political canvas is the end of the Ajit Jogi story in Indian politics.

First let me confess, I am a great admirer of Jogi’s. There have been many village children who have gone on to become civil servants, and many have served their community well, but Jogi was always special. He grew up in the newly independent India of the 1940s and ’50s, in a small village in the Achanakmar forests of central India.

Electricity only reached his village four decades later, when he had already topped the engineering entrance exams, graduated from a regional engineering college, joined the Indian Police Service and then the Indian Administrative Service, and was on his way to becoming India’s longest serving district magistrate. ‘Collector Sahib’ was a title coined for him, as he served exclusively as a district collector for 12 years – in Sidhi, Shahdol, Indore and Raipur – before resigning from service. He was then, in the mid-1980s, sent by Arjun Singh to the Rajya Sabha.

Jogi is still fondly remembered in the places he served as collector for his easy accessibility. Locals recall being allowed even into the bedroom of his collector’s bungalow. He stripped the position of its brown-sahib magic, and made it a point to indulge local politicians – from the National Students’ Union of India or Youth Congress president to MLAs and ministers. Those were the Congress years in Madhya Pradesh; Arjun Singh was lord and master. Jogi knew where he was putting his eggs.

Also read: The Ever-Changing Gears of Ajit Jogi

By the late 1990s, however, as the chaos in the Congress arty cleared and the Sonia Gandhi years began, Jogi was by her side, guiding her against the same Singhs from Madhya Pradesh. His natural intelligence had made him Arjun’s favourite, but now his loyalties had been transferred to Sonia, due to political circumstances and their shared Christian background.

When Chhattisgarh was created in November 2000, the Congress held 48 out of 90 seats in the new assembly, cleaved off from the Madhya Pradesh Vidhan Sabha. Sonia overruled all other claimants and enjoined Digvijaya Singh to anoint Jogi as chief minister.

Chhattisgarh’s first chief minister

In many ways, Chhattisgarh was fortunate to get an educated bureaucrat as its first leader, and one from the most backward region in the state. Jogi used his experience to streamline the bureaucracy. He concentrated on breaking away from the debt-ridden MP electricity board (MPEB); forming its own electricity board – CGEB – was better for Chhattisgarh as the Korba thermal installations alone made the new state have a power surplus. The Hasdeo Bango canal had been lying unfinished for 25 years – in one single tender of Rs 1,500 crore, he resolved that issue and within two years nearly doubled the irrigated agricultural land in the state.

Crop production rose from about 20 lakh tonnes annually to nearly 45 lakh tonnes. Rural road connectivity improved, and Jogi got the then Union railway minister, Nitish Kumar, to sanction one Janshatabdi train from Rajnandgaon to Raigarh, easing labour movement across the heart of the state.

Other novel and stabilising schemes were implemented in his short tenure, including Jogi dabri (water source), Jogi patta (free land holdings to the poor) and one rupee rice for SC/ST communities. In those 2.5 years, Jogi became a household name, and pushed every challenger, including the Shuklas, out of the ring.

So what went wrong? Enter Amit Jogi – all of 25 and brimming with ambition and theories of realpolitik. Initially, Jogi senior did not allow him much action but one day, less than a year into his term, Amit announced that he had “bought” 12 BJP MLAs – which meant the 36-member BJP would be weakened and the new entrants would be personally loyal to the Jogis.

Soon Ajit started caste panchayats in the chief minister’s house, giving a new twist to a hitherto casteless state. He benefited directly by becoming the Satnami mainstay and also doubled as a tribal where it worked. But the slide had begun. The political machinery is oiled with money and arrangements have to be made. A chartered accountant from Delhi and his gang entered the scenario and captured Amit’s imagination.

Also read: In Chhattisgarh’s Politics, the Sting (Operation) Always Curls Back

Clever officials started reporting to Amit directly, whose durbar opened in the chief minister’s house after his father had left. The then police top brass literally fed him with their own imaginary dirt and fears. Those close to Ajit and whose advise was crucial to his functioning were removed and quietly replaced with operators.

Fall from grace

Amit’s trust in video and sound recording and its use in settling political scores and opponents won over his better judgment. He captured the state’s cable network through a combination of money and police persuasion. His Abhi Tak channel was designed on the lines of Tamil Nadu’s Jaya TV. The BJP machinery latched on to these moves and spread the word about Ajit’s “dictatorial ways”. They used their RSS network to drum up a feeling of paranoia.

Crucially, Ajit denied V.C. Shukla a Rajya Sabha nomination in early 2003, sensing he would create hurdles in Delhi. V.C. aligned with Sharad Pawar and launched the Nationalist Congress Party in the state. The launch parade was so overwhelming that Pawar thought he now had another state, besides Maharashtra, under his belt. The beleaguered Bharatiya Janata Party, which had wide network of troops, found the ideal field gun in V.C. for the 2003 assembly elections. Its own team of Dilip Singh Judeo, Raman Singh and Ramesh Bais did not look capable enough to dethrone Jogi. Eventually, the NCP cut 7.3% off the Congress’s vote share and the BJP emerged victorious.

The audio and video recordings that had brought down the challenge of Judeo in the build up to the assembly polls came back to bite the Jogis, as a local BJP leader, Virendra Pandey, recorded Ajit’s attempts to buy five BJP elected legislators just after the assembly results. Ajit was subsequently suspended from Congress for six years.

But within a year from 2003, Ajit, who had lost his chair, been suspended from party, seen his son was accused of murder and become a paraplegic, defeated V.C. to become a Lok Sabha MP. Has there been more drama in any single leader’s life in such a short span of time?

The Raman Singh era began in the shadow of the Jogi imprint. But the BJP knew well that there were dissenters within the Congress and Ajit had a running feud with Bhupesh Baghel, Satynarain Sharma, Nand Kumar Patel, Mahendra Karma and Charandas Mahant. The 2008 assembly elections were another textbook illustration in how to divide the opposition and win, by the BJP. In the eight years that followed the 2003 elections, it became a generally acceptable political aphorism that till Ajit is in Congress, no one can beat Raman Singh.

Ajit Jogi in 2016. Credit: Facebook/Ajit Jogi

As the Congress lost for the third straight time in 2013, Ajit was again targeted for complicity with Raman Singh and Congress replaced Mahant with more aggressive Baghel. The new PCC president, a known Jogi-baiter, convinced Rahul Gandhi that Ajit was at the bottom of all the conspiracies in Chhattisgarh which kept the Congress out of power. Soon, he was able to prove this too – thanks to Amit’s penchant for clandestine recordings proving (again) that such things always come back to bite.

A new party

In a 2015 by-election for Antagarh seat, Congress nominee Mantu Pawar withdrew in favour of the BJP and Amit and Raman Singh’s son-in-law Puneet Gupta are believed to have been behind bribing him. Baghel obtained the recording from a Jogi acolyte and played it for Rahul. Ajit was suspended again from the Congress. Baghel went a step further and suspended Amit as well. Ajit had no option left but to form his own party: the Chhattisgarh Janta Congress. popularly known as Jogi Congress.

There were many who believed that it was the end of Ajit Jogi, as the assembly elections would be a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. But just before the elections, after the father-son duo failed in their attempt to get back into the Congress, Ajit pulled off an alliance with Mayawati. He was expected to win about 10 seats and become the kingmaker – but the 2018 assembly mandate was decisive beyond anyone’s belief. The Congress swept the elections with a never-before 68 seats, and though the Jogi-Mayawati combine came close to Ajit’s target of 10 seats with seven, the BJP was literally washed out with just 15 seats.

As the assembly took oath and Ajit had to watch his rival Baghel become leader of the house, the real impact of the election results become clearer. Two BSP MLAs found themselves closer to the Congress, in alignment with national politics. His own team of five consists of himself, his wife, two Thakurs and one Brahmin – the worst arithmetic possible for his Dalit-Tribal combine. Those three MLAs are now openly collaborating with the ruling party, as they are all former Congressmen anyway. Most of the former Congress MLAs and district leaders who had joined him have gone back to Congress. All his party spokespersons, youth leaders and district presidents have left, along with the treasurer and almost all the office bearers. The Jogi house, known as the Sagon Bungalow, is a lonely place. Baghel has ensured no one visits Ajit without consequences.

At 73, Ajit is now a forlorn figure in his wheelchair, with an MLA wife and an ex-MLA son in tow. Amit faces fresh SIT probes and possible arrest in the Antagarh case. The Jaggi murder case, from which he has been exonerated, may be opened again. Mayawati refused to continue the partnership for the Lok Sabha polls, and announced all her candidates without consulting Ajit.

Also read: Congress Embraces Old Ways of Relying on Dynasts Without a Shred of Embarrassment

Ajit’s own cases regarding his caste/tribal status will continue, and it is likely that under Baghel his tribal status may be withdrawn permanently as had been done by the collector of Bilaspur in 2018. Jogi is spirited and has come out of worse situations, but with age and fate coming full circle, the road ahead now seems steeper.

The next assembly elections are in 2023, when he will be 78. There will be corporations and panchayat elections in between, but there are few takers for a JCC ticket. It may be time to rest and look back. Perhaps retire and write his memoirs. His “nuisance value” for the BJP is over; Baghel is blocking his entry into the Congress and a return seems impossible. At any rate, the Congress does not have a margdarshak mandal. The screen has dropped, signalling the end of the Jogi show.

Chhattisgarh Exit Polls Leave Everyone Guessing

The BJP and intelligence agencies predict a narrow victory for the ruling party, while the Congress projects a victory for itself.

Raipur: In Chhattisgarh, all government work has been at a standstill since the final round of polling on November 20. Naya Raipur or Atal Nagar, as it is now known, bears a forsaken look with an occasional road-side worker watering the flower beds on its shiny new streets.

But Mantralaya at the end of the Ekatma Path – usually buzzing with activity – now resembles an abandoned yard. The only thing that evokes any interest is the mention of the word parivartan. Is it coming? No? Have ‘they’ managed to hack the EVMs? Everyone has a theory. No real answers are possible till December 11.

Results we bring you will paint a picture of who might prevail in Chhattisgarh. Data is not hard to come by in Raipur. There are several expert teams set up by Amit Shah, Rahul Gandhi, state BJP and Congress units, local news channels as also intelligence agencies that have been mining for the past two months.

The Wire breaks it down one-by-one based on metadata gathered from all possible sources, coupled, of course, with perceptions.

The BJP

The party used state-of-the-art technology which allowed it to track every constituency for its mood, turnout, caste divisions, issues etc. It provided real-time information to its candidates based on the information it received from the field.

For instance, in Bindranavagarh it received information that other tribal sub-sects were angry over the chief minister attending and praising Mali samaj while campaigning. It immediately mobilised and worked on the rest of them and tried to salvage the situation.

Also Read: Assembly Elections: Exit Polls Predict Big Jolt to BJP

Its system of ground operatives is now sending back reports on how each polling booth may have behaved. It has also held a meeting of its candidates to try and get a sense of how confident they are. Based on that, the following is their best tally:

  1. The state unit estimates that 25 of its sitting MLAs will lose;
  2. It estimates that 20 of the sitting Congress MLAs will also similarly be decimated;
  3. Jogi Congress has damaged eight of its constituencies while it has damaged 17  seats of the Congress;
  4. Sources told The Wire that the BJP has 42 ‘confirmed’ winners and expects another 6 to come through;
  5. It estimates that the Congress has 32 ‘confirmed’ winners and may be able to raise its tally to 39;
  6. Jogi is expected to get three seats along with the BSP and one seat will be won by an independent.

That makes it BJP – 42, Congress – 32, Jogi – 3, independents – 1 and too close to call – 12

Chhattisgarh chief minister Raman Singh.

Congress

Out of office for 15 years now, the Congress mounted its best campaign of the past two decades. It is heavily pivoting its chances on the anti-incumbency factor or parivartan – that according to the party is sweeping the state.

In a post-poll meeting called by Rahul Gandhi, the PCC president made sure that all his core supporters were present and presented a picture that must have warmed Gandhi’s heart. No true Congressman believes that the party is going to get less than 50 seats.

Baghel and company assured Gandhi that it will definitely form the government with at least 52 seats and may actually get past 60 if the parivartan wave is as forceful as they think.

  1. The PCC has assured Rahul of 52 seats;
  2. It figures the BJP will be restricted to 32 seats or below;
  3. Jogi Congress will get exactly one seat because “everyone who voted for Jogi has pressed Panja;”
  4. The remaining five seats may actually fall in its kitty according to its own calculations.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi. Credit: Reuters

Intelligence agencies

Official agencies work on a very limited premise. They have a large network of officers, policemen, assets and Mukhbirs – but none are professionals at gauging popular moods and that is the reason they often fall flat in their reports. There is also the tendency of pleasing the government in power and no one wants to be the bearer of bad news.

Our own sources, which we inadvertently share with the agency sometimes, tell us that the official figure given to the chief minister is 43 for the BJP, 40 for the Congress and 7 for the rest.

Amidst allegations of EVM tampering and constables and mobile tower workers getting caught with laptops inside strong room premises, it is quite clear that the result hangs by a very thin thread. Since the gap between the two main parties has always been very thin – between less than 0.75% to 2% in the past – making any firm prediction becomes fraught with difficulties.

Be that as it may, we can try and break down the results region wise:

  1. Bastar has 12 seats of which eight are currently held by the Congress, four by the BJP. It is likely to remain the same;
  2. North Chhattisgarh, covering the districts of Sarguja, Jashpur, Korea, Surajpur, and Balrampur have 14 constituencies, a majority of which may go the Congress’s way again. Ten for the Congress and four for the BJP;
  3. Of the remaining 64, 12 seats are in the sub-northern belt and mostly comprise of the SC seats. Of these, two may be won by the BSP. Of the remaining ten, the Congress and BJP may split them equally;
  4. Of the 52 seats in the plains – which make or break a government – most are urban or semi-urban seats. The BJP claims to have a superior run here. It hopes to get over 30 here, but it is where the battle is most severe. Durg district for instance has eight seats and four Congress claimants of the chief minister’s chair – Baghel, Ravindra Chaubey, Tamradhwaj Sahu and Arun Vora/Motilal. If there has been no backstabbing, all four are expected to win and so are their four acolytes in the districts. The BJP on the other hand is strong in Raipur and Bilaspur districts.

The final count may be something like this: BJP – 44, Congress – 42, BSP – 2, Jogi – 1, independents – 1.

The BJP should hope we are correct. The Congress has the right to disagree. Jogi has the right to be annoyed and Dr Vimal Chopda from Mahasamund will be happy to be thought of as the only independent likely to win by all pollsters.

Ground Report: Where Chhattisgarh Stands on the Last Day of the Polls

The Wire travelled to eight constituencies in four different districts of the state to assess the situation on the eve of polling.

Champa: Deep in the forests, near a stream and a large Vaishnav temple with a backdrop of white stone hillocks, it is a surreal setting for a political discussion. Harvesting has begun, the temperature in the day is an amiable 30 degrees.

But what should have been a calm day for farmers in the village nearby has been turned into a chaos of SUVs and motorcycles droning down dirt roads.

The temple sits on the cusp of two constituencies – Rampur and Sakti. As we drive into the temple to meet the youngish baba who holds the keys to about 15,000 votes in the area, a fleet of vehicles with BJP flags can be seen crowding the large entrance of the century-old temple. A Jharkhand minister (name withheld on request) has come with his supporters to convince Baba Santosh Dube, 45, to ditch the Congress and support BJP candidate Meghram Sahu in Sakti.

This is intriguing because Dube, besides being the trustee of the Vaishnav Ram temple, was till one month ago also the block Congress president and was removed summarily by the PCC before Charan Das Mahant’s candidature from Sakti was announced, perhaps on his request.

Also read: The Rise of the Sahus is Set to Tilt the Electoral Scales in Chhattisgarh

Workers from both parties greet each other with rustic warmth and familiarity, crack jokes and as the BJP set leaves, the Congress lot gets busy convincing Dube be more active in campaigning for Mahant. Dube has his list of grouses and the parley goes on for nearly two hours.

Which way did he finally turned will only be known tomorrow when 72 constituencies in the state go to the polling booths.

Few ground rules

Predicting anything in Chhattisgarh is fraught with difficulties. Traditionally, it has been a binary rivalry between the BJP and the Congress with the difference of vote being only about 1% either way. The difficulty this time is the Bahujan Samaj Party-Janata Congress Chhattisgarh combination of former Congress chief minister Ajit Jogi is likely to upset all calculations.

(L-R): JCC’s Ajit Jogi, BJP’s Raman Singh and Congress’s T.S. Singh Deo. Credit: PTI

In the absence of any strong wave, Chhattisgarhis have always voted conservatively and in line with their moderate nature. But every time a national wave rises, it does not crash on Chhattisgarh’s shore. Instead, people flow with the tide. So whether it’s the pro-Janata, anti-Indira wave of ’77, Bofors tainted ’89, Atal Bihari’s Bari of ’98, ’99 and anti-Diggi wave of 2003, it has always respected and sensed the larger  sentiments and voted accordingly. Otherwise it has always voted the party in power, largely remaining status quoists. For years it voted for Congress and now for the past three elections it has voted for BJP.

So few ground rules were visible in all the constituencies. In Sakti, former Union minister Charan Das Mahant appears comfortable as he is a big name and people will rather have him than Sahu. In neighbouring Rampur, former home minister Nankiram Kanwar of the BJP is expected to win. In Korba, sitting MLA of the Congress Jaisingh Agawal, whose wife is also the mayor, is expected to sail through. Status quoists to the tee. Even Vimal Chopra, the only independent MLA in the state, is expected to retain Mahasamund.

So as the state goes to vote these are the discernible trends:

  1. There is no wave in anyone’s favour. No undercurrents either.
  2. The BJP is hopeful of a staus quo, claiming an incumbency factor in its favour.
  3. It is depending on a disruptive rather than a constructive theory of election management and on the inability of the opposition to prick the balloon. Both Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi have talked of everything from Rafale to dynastic politics but not local issues including MSP and corruption.
  4. The presence of a potent third party alliance has not deterred either of the main contenders from playing their own small games including fixing or selling  seats.
  5. The usual election issues like ‘bijli, pani, development’ are a footnote.

Its either the lethargy of  the electorate, inability of the opposition to throw up a challenge, Raman Singh’s blessed luck or all three put together, that has resulted in an unbroken 15-year reign for the three-time chief minister. But despite the years in power, he has remained likeable – a down to earth person that the Chhattisgarhis love. Very few may claim to have seen him angry or perturbed over anything. He has weathered three elections, the elimination of entire opposition top brass by the Maoists and some feeble challenges from within. His rating  has remained good after three terms and that in itself is a small miracle for any incumbent chief minister.

The sad part though is that ennui has set in, primarily the result of a long reign. The lack of new ideas and an administration that has  become opaque and complacent. The same people have been running the show for past two decades and look visibly tired and bereft of ideas other than extolling the virtues of their leader. Government servants never seem to retire, party faces never change and even the cook, gardener and drivers of the chief minister’s house have become used to a pattern of life. It can’t be good for democracy. It does not need chaos but certainly more vibrancy.

Also read: How the New Village Power Structure in Chhattisgarh Influences Voters

The bottom line though is that if there was no Raman Singh in the equation, then it would have been a cake walk for the opposition. The BJP knows this and so do all the discredited much disliked ministers in the cabinet. Even Amit Shah realises this and for the first time in a while, Narendra Modi’s face has played second fiddle to Raman Singh on all official party posters.

In the normal course only one – Brijmohan Agarwal from Raipur south – can win while every other member of the cabinet would lose his deposit.  This then should  have been the ideal opportunity for the BJP to infuse new blood in its system but it has decided to play it safe and test the patience of the electorate.

Former chief minister Jogi’s strength is his ability to bounce out of every hardship in life,  an indomitable spirit and penchant to spring a surprise. He worked hard on his relationship with Mayawati when most expected him to work through his batchmate P.L. Puniya to reconcile with the Congress. He did that too but having failed to break through the Rahul coterie, he has thrown in the dice with Mayawati. Jogi’s penchant for surprises, of course, extends to his inability to retain the loyalty of those who stand by him. After a proper name calling and wrestling match between JCC treasurer Gajraj Pagariya and another loyalist Vijay Nijhawan in Jogi’s residence, the former resigned from the party two days before polling.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi addresses a rally at Kawardha in Kabirdham district, Chattisgarh, November 14, 2018. Credit: PTI

 Jogi’s family oriented outlook has meant that three members of his four-member family are contesting. He has put up his daughter in law Richa as the BSP candidate from Akaltara while his wife Renu is contesting Kota . He himself made a lot of noise about contesting against Raman Singh from Rajnandgaon but backed out at the last moment to protect his home base Marwahi. After the novelty of his shock alliance wore off, people are now deserting JCC along with Pagariya.

Baghel’s belligerence is both his strength and his weakness. He is the only Congressman who has been able to stand upto both Jogi and Raman Singh. A member of the Digvijay Singh cabinet of the ‘90s in MP, he has his own circle of influence. And that circle has been built very strongly on a pro-Kurmi and anti-upper caste politics. He is a product of a time when Shuklas ruled Chhattisgarh and was backed by Arjun Singh and Digvijay who wanted to cut down the Shukla influence. Alongwith Satyanarain Sharma, Charandas and Nandkumar Patel he was part of a band of leaders who had held influential positions in undivided MP. While Charan got his chance as PCC president last time after Patel was shot down, Baghel benefited from the fact that Charandas was seen as a mild leader who could not effectively counter Jogi within the party and the BJP outside.

Also read: Timeline: As Chhattisgarh Goes to Polls, a Look at the State’s Political History

Thus Baghel ascended the PCC throne and soon proved to Rahul that he could counter Jogi who from all accounts got the blame for the loss in 2013. But his inborn belligerence means he resorted to some dubious political tactics. His reliance on seedy CD makers which helped him prove Jogi’s complicity with BJP to Rahul also eventually led to his own downfall. A CD has now appeared which appears to implicate him in fixing seats but  the Congress does not have a choice at this late stage to either remove him or put forward TS Singhdeo, the leader of opposition who is seen as an alternative. Post election results things will definitely take a different course. Tamradhwaj Sahu and Mahant remain strong contenders for the chief minister’s job besides Singhdeo.

The count

That brings us to what is the actual count on the ground. If we were to take all sure winners from both parties – based on their record and present ability – there is not much headway. From the Congress all senior leaders including Baghel, Sharma, Singhdeo, Mahant etc are expected to win. So is true of the BJP which has given tickets to all its sitting ministers barring one with the expectation that they will win. A seat by seat analysis throws up an interesting figure. Both parties are expected to win 27 seats each. That makes it 54, so the contest will be for the remaining 36 seats.

It’s here where Jogi hopes to come into play. He is hoping to stop both the parties short of the simple majority mark of 46. So what are his chances? Realistically the alliance can win – Chandrapur, Jajaipur, Marwahi, Kota, Akaltara, Pamgarh, Sarangarh and Mungeli. It can hope to cause an upset in Kasdol, Lormi, Khairagarh and Bhanupratappur. It can also hope to finish second in Arang, Navagarh and  Ahirwara. The best case scenario for the alliance is that it may win 8 seats. It will be desperately hoping to stop the BJP and Congress at 40 and 42 respectively. Then Jogi can negotiate with either party.

Will that happen? It may not since BJP has been continuously harping that Jogi is a friend much to Mayawati’s consternation. Jogi had to ultimately call a press conference today and swear on religious texts that he will not support BJP. The BJP plan is to impress upon the electorate that it is going to come back to power with or without Jogi and that Congress is out of the race.

Also read: Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections: 70% Polling Recorded in First Phase Amid Sporadic Violence

The BJP apple cart might roll over in the plains where its ministers are in the fray. Amar Agarwal from Bilaspur, Ajay Chandrakar from Kurud, Rajesh Mudat from Raipur West, Prem Prakash Pandey from Bhilai and Speaker Gaurishankar Agarwal from Kasdol are all on weak wicket. If they lose then BJP may get restricted to 40-42.

The Congress thinks it has done very well in the first round of polling on November 12 for 18 seats. It expects to win 14 of them improving upon its last first phase tally of 12 out of 18. It’s also banking heavily on its stalwarts to come through as well as an ennui factor — more than the anti-incumbency. Ironically the anti-incumbency works more against  the Congress sitting MLAs than the BJP but the party has refused to learn its lessons which may be its undoing. Two months ago, it was hoping to win 54 seats and if BSP came on board then 58. Now it has seen its fortunes decline to 40s.

So at the moment it is an interesting race – the alliance still holds the keys according to our assessment but in Chhattisgarh the scenario changes fast on the day of the polling as it may not have the network of volunteers and party workers to man the polling stations. That’s where the BJP scores. As for the Congress, it will wait for the electorate to do it for them rather than motivating the electorate and if they fall short in a Gujarat-like jam, it will have only itself to blame.

Hidden Failures and a Malnourished South: Health and Nutrition in Chhattisgarh

While the Health Index 2018 accords a favourable position to Chhattisgarh in terms of annual incremental performance, the state ranks 12th in terms of comparative health status as of 2015⎯16.

In the NITI Aayog’s recently released Health Index 2018, Chhattisgarh ranks fifth – i.e. shows the fifth highest gains in improvement of its health outcomes from the base year (2014-15) to reference year (2015-16). NITI Aayog assessed states’ performance across indicators such as neonatal mortality rate, under-five mortality rate, full immunisation coverage, institutional deliveries, and people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy. However, there is still a long way to go.

Communicable diseases continue to pose a threat to the health profile of Chhattisgarh. A report published by the Indian Council of Medical Research and the PHFI notes that in Chhattisgarh, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and other lower respiratory infections, diarrhoea and malaria together have led to 39% of deaths in 2016 among children between 0-14 years of age. Recent figures from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme show that in 2017, Chhattisgarh alone accounted for 42% of all malaria-related deaths in India.

Maternal and childhood mortality

Chhattisgarh has also been in the news for its success in reducing Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) from 221 per 1,00,000 live births in 2011-13 to 173 per 1,00,000 live births in 2014-16, according to the new data released by the Registrar General of India. While Chhattisgarh’s reduction in maternal mortality is congratulatory, absolute levels of both maternal and childhood mortality figures in the state remain quite high. The state figure for MMR is an astounding 33% higher than the national figure for the same. The NFHS-4 estimates that the infant mortality rate in Chhattisgarh as 54 per 1,000 live births, and the under-five mortality rate as 64 as 1,000 live births, in 2015-16. While both have witnessed a decline of 24% and 29% respectively from 2005-06, they too remain quite high in comparison with the national figures.

A disaggregation by background characteristics reveals that infants and under-five children who are male, residing in rural areas and belonging to Scheduled Tribe/Other Backward Class category are worse off than their female, urban, non-Scheduled Tribe/non-Other Backward Class counterparts. Table 1 presents the infant and under-five mortality rates, disaggregated by residence, caste/ tribe and child’s sex, as well as schooling and mothers’ age at birth (NFHS 4). That Scheduled Tribes are worse off in terms of childhood mortality is a pressing concern, especially since they constitute a considerable proportion of the state’s population. This further calls into focus the need for the state to devise strategies which can reconcile traditional medicine with modern healthcare practices.

Table 1: Infant and under-five mortality rate, by background characteristics, 2015-16.

Background characteristics Infant Mortality Rate Under-five Mortality Rate
Residence
Urban 44.4 51.0
Rural 56.4 67.7
Caste/tribe
Scheduled Caste 41.7 56.4
Scheduled Tribe 65.8 80.0
Other Backward Classes 53.6 60.5
Other 23.5 27.6
Child’s sex
Male 57.1 68.6
Female 50.7 59.7
Schooling
No schooling 73.6 86.0
53.163.4
10 or more years complete 32.9 39.8
Mother’s age at birth
<20 66.8 79.6
20-29 51.0 61.9
30-39 56.5 61.8

A peek into the situation of infant and young child feeding practices in Chhattisgarh can, to some extent, explain childhood mortality in the state. While the World Health Organization recommends exclusive breastfeeding for every child under 6 months, only 77% of children under 6 months in Chhattisgarh are exclusively breastfed. Many infants are still deprived of the highly nutritious first milk (colostrum) and the antibodies it contains. After completion of 6 months, infants require complementary foods to fulfil their nutritional needs which breastmilk alone cannot deliver. It is striking that only 54% of children between 6-8 months in Chhattisgarh receive breastmilk and complementary foods (NFHS-4), leaving a lot of scope for improvements in child feeding practices in the state.

Health facilities in Chhattisgarh

Has the state’s health infrastructure exacerbated or contained these outcomes? Using data from the Rural Health Statistics, a look at the rural health infrastructure in Chhattisgarh points out that in the last decade, a total of 459 new sub-centres, 72 new Primary Health Centres (PHC), and 33 new Community Health Centres (CHC) have been established between March 2008 to March 2018. Of the 5,200 sub-centres in the state as on March 2018, 27% do not have regular water supply and 15% do not have electricity. While the majority of PHCs out of the total 793 PHCs enjoy regular water supply and electricity and are well connected with an all-weather motorable road, only 35% function on 24×7 basis. Further, only 5 out 169 CHCs in the state employ all four specialists (surgeon, physician, obstetrician/ gynaecologist and paediatrician) as per government norms. Sadly, none of the sub-centres, PHCs and CHCs function as per the Indian Public Health Standards (IPHS), which were published in 2007 as the reference point for public health care infrastructure planning and upgradation in the States and Union Territories.

Health workforce in these facilities, particularly in PHCs and CHCs, presents a grim picture as well. There is a dearth of medical doctors in PHCs. As against 793 medical doctors sanctioned for PHCs, only 359 are in position. In CHCs, the non-availability of general physicians is an acute problem, with only 13 physicians in position as against the 163 sanctioned. The only respite is the availability of Auxiliary Nurse Midwives (ANM) in sub-centres and PHCs, which far exceeds their requirement. Figure 1 depicts the total number of staff in position as against those sanctioned for each of the facilities (RHS 2018).

Figure 1: Vacancy (%) out of total sanctioned (as on 31 March 2018)

The successful relaunch of sub-centres and PHCs as Health and Wellness Centres under the Ayushman Bharat makes it imperative that infrastructural shortcomings especially in terms of workforce be dealt with swiftly, which coincides well with the establishment of India’s first Health and Wellness Centre in Bijapur district of Chhattisgarh. A possible solution could be to strengthen the cadre of rural medical assistants (RMAs) — a special cadre of mid-level healthcare providers — and develop their capacity as primary healthcare providers. Interestingly, a study published in 2010 by the Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI) and the National Health Systems Resource Centre has noted that RMAs with a three-year diploma are equally competent as a doctor with an MBBS in providing primary healthcare, even though the Indian Medical Association staunchly opposes the introduction of a three-and-a-half year course for mid-level health practitioners in and for rural India citing quality concerns.

Nutritional status of children

Nutrition and health go hand-in-hand. Any discussion about health is incomplete with a conversation around nutrition. In Chhattisgarh, the status of two key nutritional indicators for children — stunting (low height for weight) and underweight (low weight for age) — shows a hopeful trend. NFHS-3 and NFHS-4 show that the percentage of children under 5 years who are stunted has gone down from 53% in 2005-06 to 38% in 2015-16. While the percentage of underweight under-five children has also reduced from 47% in 2005-06 to 38% in 2015-16, it remains higher than the national figure. The figures for wasting (low weight for height), however, have worsened over time, with the percentage of wasted under-five children actually increasing from 19% in 2005-06 to 23% in 2015-16, which is also higher than the national figure.

At the district level, 9 out of 18 census districts report a higher incidence of stunted and wasted children than the state average. Bastar records the highest percentage of under-five children who are wasted- 33%. Similarly, Narayanpur at 49% and Dakshin Bastar Dantewada at 52% record the highest percentage of under-five children who are stunted and underweight, respectively. Figures 2, 3 and 4 depict the district level figures for the three nutritional indicators in 2015-16 (NFHS 4).

Figure 2: Stunting (%)

 Figure 3: Wasting (%)
Figure 4: Underweight (%)

Chhattisgarh is also one of the eight Empowered Action Group (EAG) states, which have the highest infant mortality rates in the country. In comparison to other EAG states, nutritional indicators for under-five children indicate that Chhattisgarh fares slightly better than Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh with regards to stunting. The proportion of underweight children in Chhattisgarh is also lesser in comparison to the states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. However, it has the third highest proportion of wasted children among all the EAG states. Figure 5 compares the EAG states with regards to their child undernutrition figures in 2015-16 (NFHS 4).

Figure 5: Nutritional indicators in EAG states, 2015-16

One of the major efforts to tackle the problem of undernutrition among children in the country was rolled out in the form of the Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS) in 1975. Under the scheme, nutrition and health services are provided to children under six years, and pregnant and lactating women. In Chhattisgarh, in 2015-16, pregnant and lactating women have a higher uptake of ICDS services, as compared to children under six. The coverage of ICDS services has evaded 23% of the under-six population. The provision of supplementary food, health check-ups, and immunisations has further covered only 72%, 68% and 63% of the under-six population respectively (NFHS-4).

The way forward

In the run up to the upcoming state elections, chief minister Raman Singh has reiterated his commitment to the basics of development — healthcare, education, roads and jobs. With the state serving as ground zero for the government’s ambitious health insurance scheme, Ayushman Bharat — Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY) — which as of 22 October 2018 has already touched lives of 20,000 beneficiaries in Chhattisgarh — it is not very difficult to see that commitment bearing fruit. However, while the Health Index 2018 accords a favourable position to Chhattisgarh in terms of annual incremental performance, the state ranks 12th in terms of comparative health status as of the reference year 2015-16. Southern districts are particularly worse off in terms of nutritional indicators for children. The time is thus right for the Chhattisgarh government to evaluate bottlenecks in health and healthcare delivery, adopt a targeted approach and prove its potential as a frontrunner in human development.

This article was originally published in ORF Online. Read the original article.