Assam polls

The Assam United Opposition’s Incongruous Decision on Barpeta Lok Sabha Shows Cracks in Unity

Since there is no formal seat-sharing arrangement within the United Opposition Forum Assam, opposition parties have fielded candidates against each other in some other constituencies of Assam too. Barpeta is one of them from which CPI(M) and Congress have fielded separate candidates.

Barpeta (Assam): The third and the last phase of the Assam general elections will see four parliamentary constituencies going to polls – all of them in the lower Assam division spanning from Guwahati to Dhubri with Barpeta and Kokrajhar falling in between.

With a new configuration of constituencies post-delimitation in Assam, the Barpeta Lok Sabha seat has attracted particular attention from the state’s political observers. From a minority Muslim stronghold, after delimitation, the Barpeta Lok Sabha constituency has become a Hindu majority.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is contesting 11 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats from the north-eastern state. It has left the Barpeta seat to its state ally, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), and another seat, the adjoining Muslim-majority Dhubri, which too shall see voting this May 7.

AGP’s Phani Bhushan Choudhury, a former minister in the Sarbananda Sonowal government and an MLA from the Bongaigaon constituency, is the BJP-AGP combine’s candidate in Barpeta. An array of candidates is challenging him. However, what makes it essentially a three-cornered contest are two candidates from Assam’s united opposition – the UOFA (United Opposition Forum Assam), a conglomerate of 16 opposition parties.

The CPI(M), a member of the UOFA, is contesting the Barpeta seat with Manoranjan Talukdar, a sitting MLA from the Sorbhog assembly segment within the Barpeta Lok Sabha constituency, as its candidate. The Congress has named Dip Bayan for the seat.

Leaders of political parties from the UOFA and observers of politics pertaining to the Barpeta seat post-delimitation whom The Wire spoke to indicate that though the AGP-BJP combine is banking considerably on the redistribution of the assembly segments, Choudhury’s victory could have been challenging had the Opposition launched a joint candidate.

A reconfigured constituency post-delimitation

Curiously, the delimitation exercise was carried out in Assam by the Election Commission (EC) along with a reshaped Jammu and Kashmir, while the rest of the states would see it rolling only in 2026.

Therefore, in common discourse across Assam, it is not uncommon to hear that the delimitation exercise carried out in the state was a reconfiguration of assembly and parliamentary constituencies to ensure maximum electoral benefit to the ruling BJP. The reconfigured Barpeta Lok Sabha constituency is also being widely seen through that prism by many, simply because delimitation pulled out of it some assembly segments which have been Muslim strongholds. Such constituencies, for instance, Chenga, Baghbar, Jania, and Sarukhetri, have now been attached to the Muslim-dominated Dhubri Lok Sabha seat.

The delimitation exercise in Assam had been much-hyped by the ruling party leaders as a “measure to protect the rights of the ‘khilonjiya’ or the indigenous people of the state”. Chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma had famously led that move. The opposition, on the other hand, had alleged that the delimitation exercise was to serve Sarma’s own political interest and perpetuation.

When it comes to the ‘khilonjia’ sentiment, Barpeta particularly stands out, a factor that AGP’s Choudhury is banking on. It was in Barpeta district that the All Assam Students Union (AASU), leading the anti-foreigner agitation in Assam in the 1980s, had declared its first swahid (martyr) in its local leader Khorgeswar Talukdar.

Talukdar had died in police action against AASU’s move then to bar Begum Abida Ahmed, the wife of former president Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, from filing her nomination papers to contest the 1980 general elections from the Barpeta Lok Sabha seat as a Congress candidate. AGP having borne of that movement, the Barpeta Lok Sabha seat, therefore, has always had a fair share of AGP voters. It is not difficult to sense a feeling of discontent among the AGP’s voter base that a larger share of minority voters had ensured that the seat goes to either the Congress or the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). Local BJP leader Kamal Kumar Medhi held up that sentiment while defending the recent delimitation exercise.

“Barpeta was once the constituency of Beli Ram Das, who became the MP from here in 1952 in the first ever general elections of independent India, also of Renuka Devi Barkataki. Uddhab Barman of CPI(M) won for two terms from Barpeta. It was not the constituency of the Khaleques and the Ajmals,” he told The Wire.

Medhi had referred to the sitting Congress MP from Barpeta, Abdul Khaleque, and AIUDF founder Badruddin Ajmal whose party had pocketed the Barpeta seat in 2014. Medhi’s communal lens had, however, left out the fact that between 1952 and 2019, the Barpeta seat had sent a Muslim MP to parliament as many as six times, including former president Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed in 1967 and 1971.

He gave a common refrain noted among AGP voters in Barpeta, “Over time, migration (read illegal Bangladeshis) changed the demographics of Barpeta.” He added that the sentiment that his party is hoping will romp home success for its joint candidate in Barpeta, “After so many years, post-delimitation, it is going to gain its lost glory which is a pride for the indigenous people.”

Post-delimitation, Medhi pointed out, “Barpeta has approximately 13 lakh Hindu voters while Muslims are about 6.5 lakhs.”

Contributing to the goal of his party’s ‘abki bar 400 paar’, Choudhury would win the seat with a thumping majority, he predicted.

Also read: Whither Assam Muslims? The Story of Group’s Exclusion From Political, Public Spheres

Cracks in opposition unity?

Such a prediction, however, is not rare within the opposition circles too, simply because they stand under a divided house.

In the run-up to these elections, Congress’s sitting MP, Khaleque, had resigned from the party – unhappy about the state leadership’s decision to drop him from Barpeta. Few days later, he, however, returned to the party after the central leadership’s intervention. The party then named Dip Bayan as its official candidate.

However, a day later, the CPI(M) announced Manoranjan Talukdar from Barpeta. This is the only Lok Sabha seat the party is contesting in these elections in Assam. That claim aside, several people that The Wire spoke to on the ground believe that Talukdar, a sitting MLA from Sorbhog, one of the assembly segments within the Lok Sabha constituency, enjoys considerable popularity among the voters, and therefore, the Congress should have made him the UOFA’s joint candidate.

“Congress should not have filed its candidate in Barpeta. Talukdar, being the opposition’s joint candidate, could have changed the scenario as Choudhury is not that popular,” Amiya Mahanta, a social activist and former AGP leader from Sarupeta, told The Wire.

Mahanta who had left the AGP some time ago because of its support to the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), felt, “Talukdar can raise the cause of Assam in the parliament strongly; he is a learned person.”

“I am supporting Talukdar and have also told others to vote for him this time,” she said, adding, “I don’t like doing everything in the name of Hindutva. I am also a Hindu, but politics over religion subsides basic issues like price hike, unemployment, etc.” She called the delimitation of Barpeta “an abrupt process.

“We disliked it. Only making Barpeta a Hindu majority seat won’t have helped the BJP-AGP alliance win it. I feel there is a strong undercurrent that the opposition could have successfully capitalised on.”

Mahanta’s take on the need for a joint candidate of the opposition in Barpeta to upset the BJP-AGP candidate was echoed by several others that The Wire spoke to. Jitendra Kumar Choudhury, a senior Barpeta-based journalist reporting for the Assamese daily, Dainik Asom, told this writer that the anti-incumbency votes of the BJP-AGP government would be split in his Lok Sabha constituency as voters have been left confused by the two candidates launched from the opposition’s side. His sense is, “One joint candidate, preferably Manoranjan Talukdar, could have changed the scenario on the ground.”

Saying that Talukdar is a strong candidate, Ajad Ali, a veteran politician who had contested assembly elections from the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in 2001, 2006, and 2011, believes it would still be a tight contest between AGP’s Choudhury and him. Ali, though, felt that the declaration of Talukdar as a joint candidate by the UOFA would have helped to swing a victory for him far more easily than banking on Dip Bayan.

Perhaps sensing such a pulse on the ground, as many as 77 eminent personalities of Assam led by noted public intellectual Hiren Gohain also wrote an appeal letter to the state Congress president Bhupen Borah, urging him to withdraw Dip Bayan’s candidature from Barpeta.

Raijor Dal leader and Sibsagar MLA Akhil Gogoi as well as Asam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) president Lurinjyoti Gogoi (the opposition’s joint candidate from the Dibrugarh seat) – both part of the UOFA, were also vocal in support of Talukdar. Both of them had urged the Congress to withdraw its candidate from Barpeta. All such appeals seemingly appeared fatuous for a steadfast Congress though.

CPI(M) state general secretary Suprakash Talukdar told The Wire that his party had claimed the Barpeta seat in various meetings of the UOFA, even though no formal discussion was held over seat-sharing among them. “Still, Manoranjan Talukdar as the candidate for Barpeta was like a general consensus (for the united opposition). Otherwise, we wouldn’t have received such support from so many eminent personalities, including leaders of the parties belonging to the UOFA,” said Suprakash Talukdar.

He also pointed out that while the BJP has filled 11 candidates of its own, leaving three for its allies, the AGP and the UPPL, the Congress has left only one seat for its partners. “It was indeed a very poor deal,” he added.

Also read: Opposition Must Not Let Small Differences Come in the Way of the Battle to Save Democracy

Since there is no formal seat-sharing arrangement within the UOFA, opposition parties have fielded candidates against each other in some other constituencies of Assam too. For instance, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had launched Manoj Dhanowar in the Dibrugarh Lok Sabha seat while Lurinjyoti Gogoi enjoyed the support of all other opposition parties there.

AAP had launched candidates in the Sonitpur and Guwahati Lok Sabha seats too. AAP Assam president Bhaben Choudhury was projected as the candidate in Guwahati much before Congress had declared its candidate for the seat. “We, however, decided to withdraw from Guwahati for the larger interest of defeating the BJP, and to support Meera Borthakur of Congress,” Anurupa Dekaraja, a senior spokesperson of the party in Assam told The Wire.

Though there were no seat sharing-arrangements between the UOPA parties, Anurupa mentioned that for the Guwahati seat, all like-minded parties requested AAP to withdraw its candidate. “So we did it, but Congress didn’t do the same in Barpeta even after widespread discontent,” she underlined.

When asked about it, Mehdi Alom Bora, Congress spokesperson and co-chairman of the media department, told The Wire that there was a “communication gap regarding the Barpeta candidate”.

“The CPI(M) lacked firm pursuance on the matter unlike Lurinjyoti who claimed the Dibrugarh seat from the beginning,” said Bora.

Substantiating that claim, another Congress spokesperson and the chairman of the media department, Bedabrat Bora, told The Wire “The matter came to us, but as both Congress and CPI(M) are national parties, finalising the candidate was not solely under the ambit of the APCC (Assam Pradesh Congress Committee).”

“Still, state president Bhupen Borah had forwarded the matter to the Assam in-charge, Jitender Singh. The CPI(M) leadership in the state was urged to go to Delhi to have a discussion with Mallikarjun Kharge which they didn’t honour,” he said.

However, on a categorical question on seat-sharing of the UOFA parties in Barpeta, state president Borah gave a different take to reporters at a press conference held jointly with Kharge in Guwahati recently. He gave the impression that had the CPI(M) named another candidate, Congress would have been open to a joint candidate in Barpeta.

“If Manoranjan Talukdar (the only CPI-M MLA in Assam) becomes an MP, then the Assam assembly would be minus CPI(M). Therefore, we asked them to think of a different candidate. In the last assembly elections, Talukdar became an MLA with Congress’s support.”

Notably, Barpeta has several candidates too from the Muslim community, including Dulu Ahmed, a former AJP (Assam Jatiya Parishad) leader, who had unsuccessfully contested from the Hajo assembly seat in 2021. Some political observers say he could also divide the opposition votes within the minority community.

Though the AIUDF is not a part of the UOFA in Assam, it has not contested the Barpeta seat and has instead extended support to the CPI(M) candidate. How much of it would aid Talukdar is anyone’s guess as the AIUDF’s major bases have shifted to the Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency post-delimitation.

While Char Chapori Sahitya Parishad president and well-known Assamese writer Hafiz Ahmed still believes that Barpeta’s East Bengal-origin Muslim voters, the primary base of the AIUDF in Assam, ‘will support Talukdar for the larger cause of defeating the BJP-AGP alliance,’ some others, whom The Wire spoke to on the ground, opined that the majority of Muslim votes would be cast in favour of the Congress in these elections.

Still, no one in the opposition tent contradicts that their voter base in Barpeta, both within the Hindu and the Muslim electorate, would not be divided for want of a joint fight. It only infers that the path for victory for the BJP-AGP alliance in Barpeta has never been so smooth.

The author is a Guwahati-based independent journalist.

Assam 2021 Polls: A Guide to the Most Critical Races

Results will be declared on May 2.

New Delhi: In the 2016 assembly elections, the BJP was in a pre-poll alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodo People’s Front (BPF). Together, the three parties won 86 of the 126 assembly seats of the state. While the AGP contested 24 seats and won 14, the BPF contested 16 seats and won 12 of them.

The Congress which had ruled the state for three consecutive terms under the chief ministership of Tarun Gogoi, contested 122 seats in the 2016 assembly polls but could win only 26 of them. It lost 53 seats in that election and was forced to form the opposition. In May 2016, a BJP-led government was formed with Sarbananda Sonowal as its chief minister.

The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), which had contested 74 seats in the 2016 assembly polls, could win in only 13 seats. It reduced its tally from 18 in the 2011 assembly polls to 13 in the 2016 polls.

The following was the party-wise vote share in the 2016 assembly elections:

BJP: 29.5%
Congress: 30.9%
AGP: 8.1%
BPF: 3.9%
AIUDF: 13%
Independents: 11.4%
Janata Dal (United): 0.07%
Communist Party of India (Marxist): 0.55%
Communist Party of India: 0.22

The 12 key faces in the 2021 assembly elections are as follows.

Sarbananda Sonowal (BJP)

Assam chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal is seeking re-election from the Majuli constituency. This constituency had elected Rajib Lochan Pegu of Congress thrice since 2001. In the 2016 elections, in spite of a wave for ‘poriborton‘ (change) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigning for Sonowal as a hira (diamond) that he was offering to the voters of the constituency, Pegu turned out to be a formidable enemy for the top BJP candidate.

Sonowal however won the constituency because the votes of the majority Mishing community to which Pegu belongs, ended up being divided into three parts. An independent candidate, Ranjit Doley, pulled away a crucial 15,695 votes, leaving Pegu with 30, 679 votes. Sonowal won the seat with 49,602 votes by consolidating not only the non-tribal votes but also in succeeding to pocket votes from the Mishing community because he was a possible chief ministerial candidate who would go on to represent their constituency in Dispur.

Assam chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal. Photo: Facebook/Sarbananada Sonowal

In the 2021 polls, Sonowal’s fate would be decided by development work in the constituency in the last five years and his possibility to return to the chief minister’s chair. Though much to public satisfaction, Majuli was declared a district during Sonowal’s tenure, the most important promise of the BJP to the voters — construction of a concrete bridge linking the island in the Brahmaputra to the nearest urban centre, Jorhat town — has remained unfulfilled.

Also read: Who Will Be Assam BJP’s Next Chief Ministerial Face?

Himanta Biswa Sarma (BJP)

A key face in the state’s BJP unit, Himanta Biswa Sarma entered the Assam assembly for the first time in 2001 as a giant slayer. He had defeated the former state home minister and one of the founders of AGP, Bhrigu Kumar Phukan, in the 2001 assembly elections.

Sarma has since been winning the Jalukbari seat. In the 2016 elections, however, he won that constituency not as a Congress, but as a BJP candidate.

Assam minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Photo: PTI

All eyes are on Sarma’s win in the 2021 polls as there is strong speculation within the state media and political circles that he might stake a claim for the chief ministerial position if the BJP returns to power. An ambitious politician, he is widely believed to have been eyeing the top post since his days as a Congress leader.

Akhil Gogoi (Raijor Dal)

Anti CAA-activist and peasant leader Akhil Gogoi is contesting the elections as a candidate of his new party Raijor Dal from the Congress bastion Sivasagar.

Gogoi, in jail since December 2019 and charged under the draconian Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act, is a formidable opponent to Congress’ candidate Subhamitra Gogoi, a first-timer.

Akhil Gogoi. Photo: Facebook/Files

In the 2016 polls, Congress’ Pranab Gogoi had defeated the BJP candidate Surabhi Rajkonwar by a slim margin. With the recent demise of Gogoi, a former speaker and Congress MLA of the constituency since 2001, there is uncertainty within the party about the possibility of retaining the seat in the 2021 polls too.

Akhil Gogoi’s mother Ananda Gogoi had campaigned for her son in the constituency and was joined by a number of activists from outside the state. She reportedly received wide public support.

Also read: Assembly Polls: Will Congress’ Strategic Bet Pay Off on Counting Day?

Lurin Jyoti Gogoi (AJP)

All eyes will be on the Naharkatia and Duliajan constituencies on May 2 as Lurinjyoti Gogoi, the president of the newly formed anti-CAA party, Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP), is trying his electoral luck from both the seats. Gogoi was the general secretary of the All Assam Students Union till he decided to make his maiden entry into politics a few months before the 2021 elections.

These two Upper Assam seats had gone to the BJP-AGP alliance in 2016. While Terash Gowala from the BJP had won the Duliajan seat, the Naharkatia seat was picked up by Naren Sonowal of AGP.

Assam Jatiya Parishad president Lurinjyoti Gogoi. Photo: Twitter/@lurinjtgogoi

On May 2, it will be interesting to see if the sub-nationalist (jatiotabadi) voter base of the AGP in the Naharkatia constituency particularly would shift to Lurin Jyoti due to AGP’s support to the BJP on the issue of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) even after it had violated the Assam Accord.

Lurin Jyoti’s win in these elections will also give an impetus to the rise, once again, of regional politics in the state.

Ajanta Neog (BJP)

A key face in the 2021 elections is Ajanta Neog, former minister in the Tarun Gogoi government, who had shifted allegiance to the BJP just before the assembly elections. She is seeking re-election from the Golaghat constituency.

Thanks to the growing trend of politicians jumping ship to another party prior to an election, a peculiar situation has confronted the voters of Golaghat constituency in the 2021 polls. While Neog, the 2016 Congress candidate, is the BJP’s candidate from the seat in the 2021 polls, the BJP’s candidate in the 2016 polls – Bitupan Saikia – is the Congress’ candidate this time.

Also read: Ground Report: In Upper Assam, Voters Are Torn Between Choosing a Candidate or a Party

In the 2016 polls, Neog, in spite of a BJP wave, could retain the seat for the Congress based on her good report card. Neog’s victory in the 2021 elections would send out the message clearly that voters had gone for the candidate more than the party.

Hitendranath Goswami (BJP)

Assembly speaker and BJP leader Hitendranath Goswami is seeking re-election from the Jorhat constituency. In the 2016 polls, he had defeated Congress’ Rana Goswami who too is contesting the 2021 polls in his party’s ticket.

Though the BJP had won the 2016 polls in this constituency by polling 68,953 votes as against 55,436 votes by the Congress, political observers call it a close contest between the two Goswami this time though.

Debabrata Saikia (INC)

A key face of the 2021 polls is the leader of opposition in the state assembly, Debabrata Saikia, contesting from the Nazira seat.

The Nazira seat has been the bastion of his father and former chief minister and Congress leader Hiteswar Saika.

Debabrata Saikia has been winning the Nazira seat for the party since 2011. It is waiting to be seen whether he would succeed to hold on to it the third time around.

In the 2016 polls, Saikia had succeeded to get 53.77% of the total vote share.

Atul Bora (AGP)

AGP president and the state agriculture minister Atul Bora is a key face of the 2021 assembly polls, seeking re-election from Bokakhat. Among his top opponents are the Congress mahajut (grand alliance) backed independent candidate Pranab Doley and yet another independent candidate Jiten Gogoi.

Asom Gana Parishad’s Atul Bora. Photo: Twitter/atulbora2

With anti-AGP-BJP votes likely to get divided between Doley and Gogoi, Bora is likely to be the lucky one out on May 2. Though, political observers of the state have not ruled out a surprise winner from the constituency. In the 2016 polls, Bora had won the seat by wresting 62,952 votes of the total 12,3219 votes polled.

Ranjit Dass (BJP)

A key face in the 2021 polls, BJP state president Ranjit Dass is contesting the polls this time from Patacharkuchi.

He had entered the state assembly in 2016 from Sarbhog. However, with the Congress and the AIUDF votes consolidating due to the grand alliance, Dass’s chance of repeating his victory from Sarbhog seemed remote, leading him to move to a safer seat.

Also read: How the Akhil Gogoi Factor May Tilt the Electoral Scales Against Congress in Sivasagar

In the 2016 polls, Patacharkuchi was won by Pabindra Deka of the AGP with 64,558 votes. This time though, the seat was handed over to the BJP, leaving Deka to openly rebel against his party. He quit the AGP and is contesting the polls as a candidate of the newly formed AJP. A close contest is predicted at Patacharkuchi by the state’s political observers.

Ripun Bora (INC)

Assam Pradesh Congress Committee president and Rajya Sabha MP Ripun Bora is contesting the polls from this constituency. If he wins the seat on May 2, there will be a vacancy in the current upper house.

In the 2016 polls, the Gohpur seat was won by Utpal Bora of the BJP by a whopping 84935 votes as against 56393 votes by Monika Bora for the Congress.

Indian National Congress candidate Ripun Bora. Photo: Twitter/ripunbora

Biswajit Daimary (BJP)

Biswajit Daimary, yet another state politician to jump ship to BJP just before the elections to contest the polls, has become a key face of the 2021 polls as he is also a Rajya Sabha member. He was re-elected recently to the upper house representing the BPF, then a BJp ally. But he is now contesting the polls as a BJP candidate from Paneri.

His win is crucial as it would then vacate a Rajya Sabha seat from Assam. Since this seat had gone to the BPF with the help of the BJP, it leaves open the possibility of a senior state leader of the BJP to go to New Delhi. With the question about who would be the next chief minister between Sonowal and Sarma looming over the BJP prior to the polls, Daimary’s win could be crucial to the party taking a decision on who among the two should be next chief minister and who to possibly join the Narendra Modi government in recent future. The expansion of the Modi government has been on the cards for some time now.

Watch | CAA, Unemployment, Price Rise Are Key Election Issues in Assam: Gaurav Gogoi

Jagadish Bhuyan (AJP)

Jagadish Bhuyan, former BJP leader who had quit the party opposing its controversial position in the CAA, is seeking his electoral luck from Sadiya. Bhuyan is now the general secretary of the new anti-CAA party AJP. His formidable opponent is Congress’ Bolin Chetia, the sitting MLA.

Bhuyan had won the Sadiya seat twice, as an AGP candidate, in the 1990s, and also served as tourism minister in the Prafulla Mahanta government from 1998 to 2001. In 2015 though, he had quit the AGP over political differences with the then leadership and joined the BJP. In end 2019, hours after the BJP-led central government passed the CAA in Parliament including Assam within its ambit, Bhuyan had quit the party. He played a crucial role in forming the Asam Jatiya Parishad (AJP).

Election Day Wrap: High Turnout, Peaceful Voting Marks Polls in Kerala, TN and Assam

The three-phase election in Assam, ended on April 6. In addition to three districts of Bengal, the Union Territory of Puducherry also went to polls.

New Delhi: The elections to the assemblies of Kerala and Tamil Nadu took place following COVID-19 health protocol and involving lakhs of personnel on Tuesday, April 6.

In two states today was phase three of the assembly election, which also meant the final phase in Assam. Bengal, on day three, saw significant violence across the three districts where polling took place.

Puducherry, the Union Territory, also went to polls today. Election to the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council also took place on the same day.

Polling began at 7 am and the last hour from, 6 pm to 7 pm, was set aside for COVID-19 patients and those under isolation.

Tripura

Elections to the 30-member TTAADC, which governs two-third of the northeastern state’s territory, took place amid heavy security on Tuesday.

Sixteen companies of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), 5,684 Tripura State Rifles (TSR) jawans, 3,435 police personnel and 263 Home Guards were deployed for the smooth conduct of the elections, Assistant Inspector General of Police (Law and Order) Subrata Chakraborty said.

All 61 police stations in the TTADC-governed area were put on alert, and reinforced with additional forces, he said, adding that extensive patrolling was being carried out in the places where the elections took place.

Women show their voter identity cards as they queue up at a polling station to cast their votes for TTAADC elections in Agartala, Tuesday, April 6, 2021. Photo: PTI

Assam

The third and last phase of the state election in Assam, in 40 constituencies spread across 12 districts on Tuesday, was largely peaceful despite sporadic incidents of violence and disturbances in some areas, officials said.

The final round saw nearly 79% polling where the ruling BJP is battling the Congress-led alliance to retain power,

There were reports of a clash between two groups of people over some issues at a polling station at Dighaltari lower primary school at Golakganj. Police resorted to lathicharge and firing in the air to control the situation but none was injured, an official said.

The polling at the booth was stopped for a brief period and resumed soon, he said.

At a booth at Guptipara in Bilasipara West constituency security personnel were attacked by a group of people over distribution of free masks. Here too the police resorted to lathicharge when the attackers threw stones at the polling station.

As a result voting at the polling station was interrupted for about half-an-hour but later resumed normally, officials said.

In a polling booth in Bongaigaon, there was lathi charge by the police when a huge crowd arrived, an official of the force said.

BJP candidate Himanta Biswa Sarma with his wife Riniki Sarma Bhuyan and son Nandil Biswa Sarma shows fingers marked with indelible ink after casting votes at a polling station, during the third phase of Assam Assembly elections, at Amingaon in Kamrup district, Tuesday, April 6, 2021. Photo: PTI

Another polling station in the same constituency witnessed commotion when the presiding officer went to help a differently abled person to cast his vote. The situation was brought under control immediately by the police, an election official said.

In another incident police detained at least two persons from a polling booth at Kamrup Academy Higher Secondary School in Guwahati for allegedly distributing inside it BJP pamphlets carrying minister Siddhartha Bhattacharya’s pictures.

Around 10 people have been detained from different constituencies where voting is on, officials said.

Also read: Day 3 of Assam Polls: What Makes the Final Phase a Pivotal One?

EVM malfunctioning was reported in several polling centres and voting in them resumed after the machines were replaced, they said.

Kerala

In Kerala, where the Left is hoping to beat anti-incumbency to retain power, a feat unseen in four decades, while the BJP is making efforts to build inroads, nearly 74% polling was recorded till 7 pm.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, health minister K.K. Shailaja, Devaswom Minister Kadakampally Surendran, Power Minister M.M. Mani and Higher Education Minister K.K. Jaleel are among the prominent personalities trying their electoral luck from the ruling side.

Opposition leader Ramesh Chennithala, former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, senior leaders K. Muraleedharan, P.T. Thomas and Thiruvanchoor Radhakrishnan are among those contesting from the UDF fold.

Polling officials collect election equipments at the distribution center, ahead of Kerala Assembly polls, in Palakkad. Photo: PTI

The BJP, which has failed to make a dent in the state, has fielded former Mizoram Governor Kummanam Rajasekharan, ‘Metroman’ E Sreedharan, who joined the saffron party recently, state president K Surendran , senior leader Shobha Surendran and Rajya Sabha members Suresh Gopi and K.J. Alphons.

The poll is significant for Kerala Congress (M) chief Jose K. Mani who recently snapped decades-long ties with the UDF and joined hands with the Left front.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had camped in the state for several days and taken part in dozens of corner meetings and rallies, with the party hoping that the state will herald a turn in its electoral fortunes after a series of disappointments in recent years.

Two voters, including a woman, standing in the queue in Aranmula in Pathnamthitta and Chavittuavary in Kottayam collapsed and died.

Tempers ran high at Kattayikonam in Kazhakootam constituency, a stronghold of the Marxist party in Thiruvananthapuram district, as CPI(M) and BJP workers clashed.

Four BJP workers were injured and their car was damaged.

Devaswom Minister Kadakampally Surendran, who is the LDF candidate from the constituency, told reporters that the protestors aimed to disrupt the voting procedure and alleged that police had acted as “BJP agent”.

Three Marxist workers, including the minister’s personal staff, have been taken into custody. Sobha Surendran, the BJP candidate from Kazhakootam constituency, had earlier in the day held a sit-in in front of a polling booth in the area.

Also read: What BJP Votes Will Mean for the Kerala Assembly Elections

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, seeking re-election from Dharmadom in Kannur, expressed confidence that the LDF would be voted back to power and register a ‘historic win’.

The BJP account in Nemom, the solitary seat won by the saffron party in the 2016 polls, will be ‘closed’, he said.

Congress leader Shashi Tharoor, however, said that a high turnout always augurs well for the UDF.

Tamil Nadu

There was 63.47% voting in Tamil Nadu for 234 assembly constituencies till 5 pm.

DMK Lok Sabha MP Kanimozhi, who is being treated for COVID-19, voted at a polling station in Chennai while wearing a Personal Protective Equipment kit.

In Tamil Nadu, both the Dravidian parties AIADMK and DMK went into the election without their stalwarts, J Jayalalithaa and M Karunanidhi.

Chief Minister K Palaniswami and his deputy O. Panneerselvam will cement their position as successors of Jayalalithaa if the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (AIADMK) retains power though it faces an uphill task especially after the rout in the 2019 Lok Sabha election when the DMK-led alliance won 38 out of 39 seats.

Polling officers load election materials on a mule for transporation ahead of Tamil Nadu polls, at Vellakoil in Madurai district, Monday, April 5, 2021. Photo: PTI

The AIADMK had scored successive wins in 2011 and in 2016, when Jayalalithaa bucked the anti-incumbency trend — the first by anyone in nearly three decades in the state.

After a narrow defeat in the last assembly election where several exit polls had predicted his party’s win, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) chief M.K. Stalin spearheaded a determined election campaign this time and vigorously toured the state to take on the ruling AIADMK.

He is seeking re-election for the straight third term from the Kolathur segment here while his son and party youth wing secretary Udhayanidhi Stalin is debuting from Chepauk-Triplicance constituency.

AIADMK Lok Sabha MP P Ravindhranath alleged that he and his supporters were attacked by DMK men on Tuesday. DMK’s Thondamuthur constituency nominee in Coimbatore district, Karthikeya Sivesenapathy alleged that ruling AIADMK and BJP people tried to attack him when he was travelling in a car.

Makkal Needhi Maiam, founded in 2018 and led by actor-politician Kamal Haasan, is trying its luck in assembly polls for the first time.

AIADMK ally BJP, which had not won any seat in the last polls, is contesting in 20 constituencies. Another AIADMK ally PMK is contesting from 23 constituencies.

The Congress, an ally of the DMK, is in the fray in 25 assembly segments.

Puducherry

Puducherry witnessed a contest between the AINRC-led NDA and the Congress-led Secular Democratic alliance. There was 77.90% polling in the Union Territory till 5 pm.

While AINRC fielded candidates in 16 of the total 30 constituencies, the BJP is contesting nine seats and the AIADMK is contesting five seats.

Yanam, where the AINRC leader N. Rangasamy is contesting, registered a higher percentage of polling than other regions.

The Congress has fielded candidates in 14 out of the 15 seats and is supporting an independent in Yanam. The DMK, its main alliance partner, has fielded candidates in 13 seats and the VCK and CPI are contesting from one constituency each.

The Congress-led government in the Union Territory had collapsed just before the elections.

Bengal

The trend of high turnout and violence during polling continued in West Bengal as the ruling Trinamool Congress, the BJP and the Left-Congress alliance put up an intense fight in the high-stakes contest.

Volunteers provide hand sanitizer and mask to an elderly voter at a polling station during the third phase of West Bengal Assembly elections, in South 24 Parganas district, Tuesday, April 6, 2021. Photo: PTI

Five candidates, including two women, were assaulted in poll-related clashes as over 77% voting was recorded in 31 seats in West Bengal till 5 pm in the third phase.

Also read: Bengal Polls: Violence Marks Phase 3 As TMC, BJP Both Allege Attacks on Candidates

Violence was reported in areas like Uluberia, Khanakul, Falta, Canning Purba, Durbrajpur and Hooghly, where a BJP supporter’s family member was killed.

The state is having eight-phase elections.

(With PTI inputs)

Day 3 of Assam Polls: What Makes the Final Phase a Pivotal One?

Some of the key players in the state’s politics will be contesting in this stage.

New Delhi: The third and the last phase of elections in Assam got underway at 7 am today, April 6. Voting will continue till 6 pm.

In this phase, the remaining 40 of the total 126 assembly seats would go for polling. In the 2016 polls, the two key contenders – the BJP and Congress – had pocketed 11 seats each of these 40 seats.

In these elections, as many as 337 candidates are in the fray.

While the first phase of elections in the state saw voting in 47 assembly seats on March 27, polling in 39 of them was completed on April 1.

Some of the key players in the state’s politics whose electoral fate would be boxed in the electronic voting machines (EVMs) on April 6 are:

Assam: Outrage as BJP Minister Threatens Scribe for Report, Accuses Him of ‘Miya Politics’

Journalist Nazrul Islam has filed a complaint at a police station after Pijush Hazarika threatened to ‘drag him out to the streets’ over a report on his wife’s speech.

Guwahati: An audio clip of Assam minister and BJP candidate Pijush Hazarika verbally abusing and threatening a Muslim journalist has gone viral on social media.

Nazrul Islam, a correspondent for the television news channel Pratidin Time has filed an FIR at the Jagiroad police station against the minister of state (independent charge) of urban development, health and family welfare . The incident took place on Thursday, April 1.

Assam minister Pijush Hazarika threatening a journalist. https://t.co/ToxIcLW5NT

— Anirban Roy (@anirban1970) April 1, 2021

In the nearly six-minute clip, Hazarika who is an MLA from the Jagiroad constituency in Assam’s Morigaon district is heard telling Islam that “he will break his legs and drag him out to the streets.” Jagiroad went to polls on Thursday as part of the second phase of the state’s assembly elections.

Also read: Day 2 of Assam Polls: What Makes These 8 Constituencies the Most Crucial?

The reason behind Hazarika’s outburst is reportedly a video clip that was circulated widely, which he accused Islam of having misreported.

The video showed Hazarika’s wife and actor Aimee Baruah making a speech in an election campaign rally addressing a crowd of mostly Bengali Hindus. There, she reportedly said, “CAA in simple terms means that these people…the Bengali Hindu people who have lived in Assam for a long time with us…if these people won’t follow or support the CAA they will be driven out not just from Assam but from India as well. You have to stay in Assam and in India. We want CAA and we need CAA and you have to stay here.”

Hazarika accused Islam of twisting this part while reporting on Baruah’s video clip.

Hazarika and Baruah on the campaign trail. Photo: Twitter/@aadityagautom

Later, Baruah told reporters that her statement had been misunderstood and also apologised if she had hurt anyone’s sentiments.

Meanwhile, Hazarika reportedly called Islam over the airing of Baruah’s video clip and accused him of conspiring and colluding with Congress and its ally, AIDUF.

Hazarika could also be heard referring to Islam as ‘miya’ – a derogatory term for Assam’s Muslims. He also accused Islam of taking part in ‘miya politics’.

Also read: Interview | There is a Conspiracy to Show Bengal-Origin Muslims as Anti-Assamese: Hafiz Ahmed

Hazarika said he was hurt and that Islam and another reporter “cannot be saved” in the aftermath of the airing of the clip. He also said Islam’s employer Pratidin Time will not be able to save him either and that he will be taught a lesson and his life will be made miserable.

Opposition parties and Assam’s journalists have condemned the incident severely and called on national journalists’ bodies to take the matter up.

Islam told The Wire that he was on the road and at work on election day when he got the call from Hazarika’s personal assistant.

“I took the call and the personal assistant told me that Hazarika would like to talk to me. Immediately there was this barrage of threats, warnings, and slangs. He called me a ‘miya’ and accused me of ‘miya politics’. The slangs he used were really offensive,” he said.

“I am a journalist and what happened to me is an insult to journalists everywhere. I had no option but to file an FIR against Hazarika. I have been provided with security after the incident,” he added.

Snit Kumar Bhuyan, senior associate editor of Pratidin Time, told The Wire that such an incident where a minister threatens a journalist is dramatic enough for cinema.

“We have seen such things in films but they have never happened in Assam. The minister has imported this culture to Assam. If something happens to the reporter who will be responsible? Journalists have to work in the most difficult of circumstances and are doing a public service in providing the news and truth. This is reprehensible behaviour from a politician who also happens to be a minister. What kind of message is he trying to send?” Bhuyan said.

Also read: ‘Media Outlets Critical of Govt Harassed, Pressured in India’: US State Department Report

The Gauhati Press Club issued a statement on Thursday condemning the incident. The statement said:

“The audio clip where Minister and BJP candidate from Jagiroad constituency Pijush Hazarika is reportedly heard intimidating a television journalist over the phone for airing a news report is highly condemnable and cannot be condoned at any cost. The Gauhati Press Club, while condemning the act of intimidation in the strongest words is further of the opinion that it is very unbecoming of a public representative to threaten a journalist of dire consequences, no matter what. At a time when the protection of journalists has become a cause of concern, such an uncalled-for attitude by a public representative comes as a shocker.”

The Assam Pradesh Congress Committee has already submitted a memorandum to Nitin Khade, the Chief Electoral Officer, alleging that Hazarika’s behaviour was a violation of the model code of conduct.

The leader of opposition in the state legislative assembly Debabrata Saikia told The Wire, “The kind of language that Hazarika used is something which is not only unparliamentary but below the standards of human decency. This exposes the dictatorial traits of the BJP. This was a textbook case of bullying.”

Note: This report has been edited since publishing to include details on Aimee Baruah’s speech.

Day 2 of Assam Polls: What Makes These 8 Constituencies the Most Crucial?

As many as 345 candidates are in the fray on April 1, of whom 176 are independents.

Guwahati: Polling for the second phase of the Assam assembly election began at 7 am today, April 1.

In the second phase of elections in the northeastern state, voting will be completed in 39 constituencies.

While voting in 47 seats was completed on March 27, the third phase of polling, to be held on April 6, will cover the remaining 40 of the total 126 assembly seats of the state

As per the Election Commission of India, as many as 345 candidates are in the fray in the April 1 election, of whom 176 are independents. In this phase of polling, 26 women candidates are in the fray.

While the two major contenders – the BJP and the Congress – are contesting 34 and 28 seats respectively, the BJP ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), is trying its luck in six seats.

Congress allies, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Bodo People’s Front (BPF), are contesting in seven and four seats respectively.

The newly formed party contesting on the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act plank, the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), will test its electoral luck in 19 of the 39 seats in this phase.

With no wave in favour of the BJP in these elections, unlike in 2016, each phase is crucial for the party to retain power. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been leading the party’s campaigns with marathon rallies in this phase of polling too. Rallies by Union ministers and party national president J.P. Nadda has kept the BJP campaign busy.

Electioneering by the opposition Congress, which is giving BJP and it’s allies a stiff fight along with nine other parties as part of a common pre-poll alliance, was led by senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in this phase.

Some of the key constituencies going to polls today are:

Day 1 of Assam Polls: Key Constituencies and Why They Matter

Polling on March 27 will not only decide the fate of the state chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal but also top leaders like the jailed Akhil Gogoi.

Guwahati: Voting for the first phase of polling in Assam began at 7 am, today, March 27. Of the 126 assembly constituencies in the state, 47 are going to polls today to decide the fate of 264 candidates.

Polling on March 27 will not only decide the fate of the state chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal but also several other top leaders of the ruling BJP and AGP alliance, the opposition Congress and the newly formed anti-CAA parties – the Asam Jatiya Parishad and Raijor Dal.

Among the candidates are also 23 women and 78 independents.

Following are the key constituencies in the first phase:

People Kept Out of Assam NRC Eligible to Vote in Assembly Polls: CEC

CEC Sunil Arora, along with Election Commissioners Sushil Chandra and Rajiv Kumar had been on a three-day preparedness review visit to Assam ahead of the election.

New Delhi: Chief Election Commissioner Sunil Arora on Wednesday said that people who were kept out of the Assam National Register of Citizens will be eligible to vote in this year’s assembly election as their names are already on the voters’ list, a report by Scroll.in said.

Arora, along with Election Commissioners Sushil Chandra and Rajiv Kumar had been on a three-day preparedness review visit to Assam ahead of the election and met political parties for an interaction with the full bench of the Election Commission as well.

“The home ministry notification of August 29, 2019 clearly states that non-inclusion of a person’s name in NRC does not by itself amount to him/her being declared a foreigner,” Arora was quoted as having said at a press conference in Guwahati. Arora said that this implied that people who were left out of the NRC would be eligible to vote “until a decision is taken by the concerned tribunal.”

The revised Assam NRC was published by the office of the Registrar General of India (RGI) on August 31, 2019. The total number of people it left out was 19,06,657.

Arora also said that the election schedule will be held keeping in mind the Rongali Bihu festival and the process will be finished before the CBSE Board exams beginning on May 4.

Rongali Bihu, also known as Bohag Bihu, is celebrated by the people of Assam to mark the Assamese New Year. It is usually observed in the second week of April with the onset of spring.

Also read: In Fighting for NRC-Excluded, Rights and Aspirations of Assamese People Cannot be Ignored

“The Bihu festival dates will be taken into cognisance and factored in while drawing up the schedule of election dates accordingly,” the CEC added.

The commission had meetings with Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) officials to decide on the poll schedule framework as well. The CBSE board exams are scheduled to start from May 4 and end by June 10.

The term of 126-member Assam house is ending on May 31, 2021.

The political parties had also impressed upon the commission to hold the elections with strict COVID-19 protocols and this will be adhered to strictly with the number of auxilliary polling booths increased in the state, Arora said.

The maximum number of electors at a polling station has been reduced from 1500 to 1000, he said.

Accordingly for Assam, the number of polling stations would go up by about 5,000 and likely to be more than 33,000 for the forthcoming elections, the CEC added, saying that this is in line with what parties have also asked for.

The parties had also stressed on the need for adequate security even at the remote polling stations and deployment of commensurate security personnel, he said.

Some representatives drew attention of the commission to deputing observers from outside the state and there is “an unwritten rule that observers for every election are sent from outside the state after due scrutiny. Among them 99.1% uphold the sanctity of the constitution while the 0.1% of the black sheep are ruthlessly dealt with,” he said.

If required, special observers will also be deployed in sensitive or critical constituencies or districts to monitor and ensure that elections are conducted in a totally free and fair manner, he said.

Among other issues, some representatives of the political parties wanted that the expenditure limits be hiked, electors’ photo identity cards will be distributed well in time and the timelines for publishing the criminal antecedents of candidates in media be made more realistic, the CEC said.

Concerns regarding misuse of social media for spreading communal speeches, misuse of government machinery, misuse of money power and COVID-19 protocol violations were also expressed by some representatives, he added.

The commission has zero tolerance on misuse of money power or government machinery and in this regard, a specific meeting was held with the enforcement agencies to crack the whip wherever required.

The increase in the number of polling stations in turn would have other logistics and manpower implications and the commission has directed that assured minimum facilities (AMF) including drinking water, toilets, waiting area and ramps be provided at all polling stations along with voter assistance booth, Arora said.

(With PTI inputs)

BJP Becomes the King Sans Kingmaker in Assam

The political reality of the collective bargaining power wielded by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s two regional allies in the state will always keep it in check.

Guwahati: Riding a strong anti-incumbency wave against the ruling Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) have swept the assembly polls in Assam, securing 86 of the total 126 seats, paving the way for the installation of a non-Congress government in the northeastern state after 15 years. Of the five states in which assembly polls were held, the BJP had the highest stakes in Assam and the landslide victory has helped the BJP spread its influence in the strategically located northeastern part of the country.

The verdict is a clear indication that the BJP has been able to spread its base in the entire state – the Brahmaputra valley, the Barak valley and the two hills of the state – Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao. Of the 60 seats won by the party, 49 came from the Brahmaputra valley, eight from the Barak valley and three from the hills. State BJP president and Union Minister for Sports and Youth Affairs Sarbananda Sonowal, is now poised to take oath as the chief minister of the state. However, former Congress minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who played a key role in BJP forging the pre-poll alliance with the AGP and the BJP and also in electioneering is also expected to play a deciding role in the ministry formation.

The ruling Congress bites the dust as it managed to get only 25 seats, and only 31% votes. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress vote share was 29.90. While Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi retained his seat, 11 of his ministers and several of his former ministers were defeated.

The results shattered the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)’s chief Badruddin Ajmal’s dream to become a “kingmaker” and his party’s tally was reduced to 13 seats, down from from the 18 won by it in 2011. Maulana Ajmal, who represents the Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency, lost to his nearest Congress rival Wazed Ali Choudhury in the Salmara South constituency.

The final party position in the new assembly is: BJP – 60, AGP – 14, BPF – 12, Congress -25, AIUDF – 13 and independent – 1. In 2011, the Congress won 78 seats and retained power for the third consecutive term while the BJP managed to win just five seats. The other party positions for the 2011 elections were as follows: AGP – 10, BPF – 12, AIUDF – 18, Trinamool Congress -1 and independent – 2. However, BJP candidates polled the highest votes in 69 assembly segments in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. In this election, the BJP-led alliance has secured 41.5% votes (BJP – 29.5, AGP – 8.1, BPF -3.9). In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP secured 36.86%, the AGP secured 3.87% and the BPF secured 2.21% votes.

The verdict shows that the AGP has gained from its pre-poll alliance with the BJP. The regional party, which ruled the state for two terms in the past, won 14 of the 24 seats it contested. However, the AGP has lost its bargaining power, as the BJP will not be dependent on it for government formation, because the BPF too has won 12 seats.

The BPF, which rules the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC), achieved over a 90% strike rate as the pre-poll alliance helped the party win 12 of the 13 seats contested by it. However, BPF chief Hagrama Mahliary’s dream to become the kingmaker was shattered, and like the AGP, the Bodo political party too will not have any bargaining power as the BJP will not be dependent on it for government formation.

Yet, the BJP will always run the risk of offending the two allies at the same time, as the AGP and the BPF together would have strong bargaining power. This political reality will always keep the BJP in check and prompt it to devise strategies to prevent the two regional parties from becoming too close.

The BJP formed a “rainbow” alliance with the AGP, the BPF, and the political organisations of the Tiwas and the Rabhas. It also played on the perceived fear of Muslims who originate from erstwhile East Bengal among the so called ‘indigenous Assamese’, invoking the historic battle of Saraighat in which the Ahoms, who ruled over Assam for over 600 years, defeated the Mughals.

The AGP, which champions the cause of ‘indigenous Assamese’ will seek to bring the issues of implementation of the Assam Accord and various clauses of the accord such as the identification and expulsion of ‘Bangladeshis,’ sealing the India-Bangladesh border and most importantly, clause six of the accord which promises that “constitutional, legislative and administrative safeguards, as may be appropriate, shall be provided to protect, preserve and promote the cultural, social and linguistic identity and heritage of the Assamese people.”

For the implementation of clause six of the Assam Accord, the All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) has been demanding 100% reservation in the assembly, barring the seats reserved for Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe candidates, and land rights for Assamese people. It believes that only such a step can allay the fears of Assamese people losing political power to “infiltrators.”

However, a consensus on the definition of Assamese people could not be found in the 30 years since the signing of the Assam Accord in 1985 at the culmination of a vigorous anti-foreigner agitation spearheaded by the AASU and the formation of the AGP by the student body. Of these 30 years, the Congress was in power for 15 years, the AGP was in power for 14 years and the state was under president’s rule for one year.

The people of Assam punished the AGP by keeping it out of power for all these years for its failure to implement the accord. This provided the BJP the much needed political space to strengthen its base in Assam. The AGP cannot afford to evade its role in the implementation of the accord this time as it would then allow the BJP to annihilate the regional party completely. As long as AGP’s alliance with the BJP remains a compulsion than an option, the party will not be able bargain with the BJP on the rights of the “indigenous Assamese.” The AGP opposed the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance government’s notification to provide shelter to “Hindu Bangladeshis” but diluted its stand when it understood that the BJP and the Sangh Parivar had already influenced the majority of the Assamese people, including those in its traditional stronghold. A key shift was made in their perception of the Assamese as a nation (jati) of not merely linguistic and cultural identities, but also a religious identity, which made them believe that it is only Bangladeshi Muslims and not the Bengali-speaking Hindu Bangladeshis who pose a grave threat to the identity of the “Assamese.”

For the BPF to remain the most influential political force in the Bodoland Territorial Area District (BTAD), the implementation of the Bodo Accord which led to the formation of the BTC, a tribal autonomous council under the provisions of the sixth schedule of the Constitution will remain the key issue. This Bodo Accord was signed on February 20, 2003 after Bodo groups rejected the first Bodo Accord signed by the All Bodo Students Union and the erstwhile militant outfit Bodo Liberation Tigers. Current BTC Chief Hagrama Mahilary led an armed campaign to revive the movement for a separate state of Bodoland on the grounds that the accord failed to fulfil the aspirations of the Bodo people. Even though anti-incumbency was high against the BPF for the very reason that it shared power with the Congress from 2006 to 2014, the BPF fueled fresh hopes among the Bodos by showing them the “kingmaker” dream and by severing ties with the Congress well ahead of the assembly polls. Its alliance with the BJP and AGP helped to retain the support of non-Bodos as well.

The results clearly indicate that the BJP has caused a permanent dent in the traditional Congress stronghold among the tea-tribes, and the saffron party’s inroads into this Congress bastion in 2014 was not a temporary phenomenon attributable only to dissidence against the outgoing chief minister Gogoi by Congress legislators who were representing the tea tribes. Although Gogoi could retain his Titabor constituency, defeating Kamakhya Prasad Tasa, the BJP’s Lok Sabha MP from Jorhat, most of his former cabinet colleagues lost the poll this time.

A shift among the Muslim voters of East Bengal origin in favour of the Congress reduced the AIUDF’s strength in the Brahmaputra valley. Of the total 13 seats won by the party, nine came from the Brahmaputra valley and four came from the Barak valley. In 2011, of the total 18 seats won by the party, 17 came from the Brahmaputra valley and only one from the Barak valley. In 2014 Lok Sabha polls, a sharp polarisation of votes on religious lines helped the party poll the highest votes in 25 assembly segments. The BJP and its allies played up the rise of AIUDF to reinforce the fear of the “indigenous Assamese” losing political power to a possible AIUDF-Congress combination. The BJP projected this combination as the ‘protector’ of ‘infiltrators’ (Bangladeshi Muslims).

The return of the BJP in the Barak valley is likely to mount pressure on the Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre to fulfil its poll promise of granting citizenship to “Hindu Bangladeshis.” In 2011, the BJP failed to win a single seat in the Bengali-dominated Barak valley and in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls too, the BJP managed to poll the highest votes in only three of the total 15 assembly segments under the two Lok Sabha seats – Silchar and Karimganj of the Barak Valley, even as the Modi wave swept the Brahmaputra valley. In this election the BJP has won eight seats, the AIUDF has won four and the Congress, only three seats.

Note: This article was originally published on nezine.com. Minor edits have been made to the original article to reflect stylistic changes.