Jaipur: In the previous Lok Sabha general elections, the Bhartiya Janta Party in Rajasthan recorded a landslide victory, winning all the 25 parliamentary seats. As the locals say, “Whoever got the BJP ticket won due to the formidable Modi wave.”
Riding high on victory, the party has re-fielded candidates in 64% of the seats.
It has also taken significant steps in appealing to communities that may have a say in the electoral outcome. The BJP has formed an alliance with the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLTP), led by Hanuman Beniwal, an influential Jat leader from Nagaur. Jats have an influence over nearly 50% of the seats in Rajasthan.
The party has also inducted the leader of the infamous Gujjar agitation, Kirori Singh Bainsla, to strike a balance among the Gujjar votes, Some of these votes would have otherwise been deflected towards the Congress, in support of deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot, who also belongs to the community.
Recently, there were reports of the Gujjar community being furious with Bainsla for joining the BJP. However in a community meeting, the issue was resolved and it was decided that Bainsla would continue to lead the agitation. “Our ideology is in line with the BJP. With the community’s support, we are hoping the party will get good results in this election,” Vijay Bainsla, Kirori’s son who also joined the BJP told The Wire.
The Congress, on the other hand, has tried to retain the support of the Meena community, which has traditionally voted for it. The ruling party in the state has given tickets to four Meena candidates in this election, while the BJP has fielded two.
After the debacle of 2014 general elections, the Congress managed to win two seats – Ajmer and Alwar – in bye-polls last year. Interestingly, the party has not fielded the same candidates in these seats, despite winning with a considerable margin.
Close margins
The 2018 assembly elections in Rajasthan were closely fought between the Congress and the BJP. The former secured 39.03% of the votes and the latter 38.8%. But the tally of the seats stood at 99 and 73 for the Congress and the BJP respectively. From this marginal difference in vote shares, it can be assumed that this election would be neck and neck for the two parties.
In thr border districts of Rajasthan, Modi is tactfully revolving his campaign around surgical strikes and the Balakot airstrike. While addressing a rally in the Shekhawati region, Modi said, “Only Congress can do surgical strike on paper and video games and say ‘me too, me too’.”
Nagaur is the only seat in Rajasthan where the BJP has not fielded its candidate, where Beniwal’s RLTP is contesting. Congress stalwart Nathuram Mirdha’s granddaughter, Jyoti Mirdha, is contesting this seat with the Congress ticket. Apart from the Jat votes, Mirdha is also eyeing Muslim and Dalit votes in Nagaur. As a part of a strategy to target Dalit votes, BSP candidate Mustaq Khan was made to withdraw his nomination.
Former chief minister Vasundhara Raje’s close aide Yunus Khan has also maintained distance from the campaigning in the district. Khan was expecting the ticket from the Nagaur seat after he was made to contest the Tonk assembly seat against Sachin Pilot. This would have swung Muslim votes in favour of the BJP.
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In the agriculture-dominant and CPI(M) stronghold Ganganagar, the Congress has an edge. While the CPI(M) has indirectly lent support to the Congress candidate, the BJP candidate is relying on the Hindutva agenda.
Santveer Singh, CPI(M) member in Ganganagar, told The Wire that farmers of Ganganagar are very aware. “They know how to differentiate between issues and propaganda. The BJP is not able to provide any fix to the farmers’ problem and is trying to build upon its propaganda. We have supported the Congress by not contesting on this seat,” he said.
During last year’s assembly elections, the BJP was reduced to a score of zero in the Bharatpur district. To tackle the loss, the BJP has given ticket to Ranjita Koli instead of its sitting MP Bahadur Singh. Koli is daughter-in-law of Ganga Ram Koli, former MP from the Bayana parliamentary constituency.
The Congress has fielded former Indian Revenue Service officer Abhijit Kumar Jatav, who has been active in social work after he took voluntary retirement in 2012. He has repeatedly raised concerns over the Modi government’s demonetisation move.
BJP’s dilemma in Dausa
Dausa is the only Lok Sabha seat in Rajasthan where both the BJP and the Congress have fielded a woman candidate – Jaskaur Meena and Savita Meena respectively. In the assembly elections, the Congress won four of the five seats in the district, with an independent candidate winning the other.
The BJP was noticeably late in deciding its candidate for this seat. Much of the delay was attributed to a tussle between Rajya Sabha MP Kirori Lal Meena, who joined the BJP just before the assembly polls, and Om Prakash Hudla, a BJP rebel and an independent MLA from Mahuwa seat. Kirori Lal Meena lobbied for his wife, Golma Devi, to get the ticket. She was defeated by Hudla in the 2013 assembly elections. After the party issued the ticket to Meena’s nephew in the 2018 assembly elections, Hudla contested independently and won. Choosing Jaskaur Meena is seen as a compromise on part of the BJP to tackle the Kirori-Hudla mess.
From Sikar in the Shekhawati region of Rajasthan, the Congress won seven of the eight seats in the previous assembly polls, with an independent candidate emerging victorious in the other. It has fielded Subhash Maharia, a Jat candidate and a three-time BJP MP from Sikar, against the BJP’s Swami Sumedhanand Saraswati, the current MP. In 2014, despite the Modi wave, Maharia fought as an independent candidate and was able to garner at least one lakh votes.
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The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has also fielded its state secretary Amra Ram to contest from Sikar. He has led several farmers’ protests in the past five years in the Shekhawati region and is likely to split votes in the constituency.
In the Jhunjhunu seat, there is infighting among both the parties. The BJP has dropped Santosh Ahlawat while the Congress has refused to field Raj Bala Ola, daughter-in-law of senior Congress leader Sis Ram Ola of Jhunjhunu. Both Ahlawat and Ola have publicly criticised their parties for not supporting their candidature despite their performance in the region.
The Jaipur (Rural) constituency has changed from being a Rajput versus Brahmin contest to a Rajput versus Jat one. It will also be a battle between Olympians, after the Congress fielded Krishna Poonia, an MLA from Sadulpur, against the BJP’s Union minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore. The two electorally rival communities are expected to make it an intense contest in the capital.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with BJP leaders Prakash Javadekar and Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore during a rally in Jaipur on May 1. Credit: PTI
A multi-faceted contest in Churu
Locally known as ‘Jat seat’, Churu has been under the Kaswan family for the past five consecutive general elections. Ram Singh Kaswan is a four-time MP from this seat. In 2014, his son Rahul Kaswan was elected on the BJP ticket and has been fielded again. However, the Congress has decided to pitch a Muslim candidate, Rafique Mandelia, in this predominantly Jat seat. Mandelia fought Ram Kaswan in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, but lost. He also lost to Rajendra Rathore in the Churu assembly seat in 2018.
Even the BSP and CPI(M) have considerable influence in Churu. While the BSP was the runner-up during the last Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) has fielded Bhadra MLA Balwan Poonia in the general elections. Adding to the already tough contest, Karni Sena chief Sukhdev Singh Shekhawat Gogamedi’s wife Sheela Shekhawat is also contesting and is likely to sway Rajput votes in her favour.
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During the crucial first three months of governance in the state, there is no denial that the Congress has not been able to make an exceptional difference to the party’s image. The extremely ambitious executions of the Ashok Gehlot government – like farm loan waiver and unemployment allowance to the youth – have failed to brighten the party’s prospects in this election. The farmers wanted the Congress’s waiver to be more inclusive than the one announced by Raje. They wanted their Kisan Credit Card (KCC) loans to also be waived. In fact, a delay in payment of salaries to government employees in the state has created troubles for the masses, and is likely to impact votes.
