2024 general election

Indian Democracy’s Moment of Reckoning

There is no doubt that the trappings of democracy are back. But the basic practices engendered by our new-found freedom aren’t what democracy is all about – they only provide the preliminary groundwork for the more difficult tasks ahead.

Here are some snippets that I gleaned from the Godi news media today, i.e. September 4: a. ‘500 SEBI employees write to [the] finance ministry on toxic work culture under Madhabi Buch’; b. ‘Thane magistrate’s court cancels bail to cow vigilantes who brutalised a 72-year-old Muslim’; c. ‘Subhash Chandra of Zee Entertainment issues a press release alleging corruption against the chairperson of SEBI’.

For a long ten years when our democracy was under assault, happenings like the kind mentioned above, that could cause embarrassment to the regime, were either nipped in the bud or news about them squelched before they hit the newsstands. Everything changed on June 4 – that red letter day when emperor Humpty-Dumpty had a great fall, and we recovered our freedom.

Today, the power dynamics have shifted decisively in favour of transparency, perhaps a fitting time to play back to Modi the borrowed Bob Dylan quote that he tauntingly spouted at the Global Citizen Festival in 2016 soon after the demonetisation debacle: “Don’t criticise what you can’t understand … the times, they are a changin!” Life has come full circle!

Kahlil Gibran was spot on about the indispensability of human freedom: “Life without liberty is like a body without spirit.” The Lok Sabha election and the fractured mandate of June 4 marked the day of deliverance for all Indians who believe in the idea of India that our founding fathers envisaged.

I also realised that freedom is not just good for the soul but for one’s physical well-being. Of a sudden, the heebie-jeebies in the pit of the stomach have gone and so have the acid-reflux, the sleeplessness and other psychogenic problems; and there’s almost a spring in the step of the old dog. Let me tell you – freedom is an unmitigated good!

For ten interminable years, India’s story was about inhumanity, bigotry and unspeakable cruelty; it was about the deliberate, organised and hate-filled othering of the Muslim; it was about complicit institutions, a partisan judiciary and law enforcement machinery.

Undergirding such overt forms of oppression was what that most remarkable playwright-philosopher-politician of the twentieth century, Vaclav Havel, called the “technique of existential pressure” that embraced the whole of society and every individual.

It was a nameless terror – “a hideous spider whose invisible web runs right through the whole of society” – that demanded unquestioning obedience and went to the absurd extent of citizens banging thalis and lighting diyas on command from on high. Everyone was positioned as either a victim or a supporter of the regime.

This grim period showed up people for what they are – ugly, bad or good. At the top of the list of despicable collaborators were the potentially most powerful segment of what constitutes civil society – the self-serving, cowardly middle class, ever ready to kowtow to the regime for personal gain, informing on their fellow citizens, revelling in the hedonistic consumer culture and heedless of the injustice and misery all around.

Equally, if not more, reprehensible was the conduct of the corporate honchos and the business community in general who sold their souls to the regime and, in tandem with their political benefactors, fattened off the land.

Also read: Modi Stands Defeated But He’s Not Giving Up His Destructive Plan for a 1000-Year-Reich

It was left to the powerless, i.e. the poor and the dispossessed, to rescue our democracy. And they did! Like in 1977, when they booted out the despotic Indira Gandhi, once again, against all odds, the poor of this country delivered a verdict against tanashahi, denying the BJP a majority on its own in the Lok Sabha election.

Of a sudden, the blinding light of freedom has dispelled the darkness that had enveloped us for ten years.

Our chaotic, vibrant democracy has come roaring back! After being on the ropes for years on end, a rejuvenated opposition, fortified by their impressive numbers, took parliament by storm in the recent monsoon session and, to extend the boxing analogy, pummelled the ruling party with a barrage of thunderous jabs.

The look of hangdog sheepishness punctuated by impotent outrage on the faces of the two bullies was a sight to behold. On all counts, it was a technical knockout!

It’s no longer a one-way street. Shackled by the constraints of a coalition, the compulsive authoritarian has been forced into submitting to the bumpy dynamics of democratic functioning with its checks and balances.

Legislation that hitherto was cleared by an imperious parliament without discussion has now hit hard rock. The Broadcast Bill and the Waqf (Amendment) Bill that are unmistakable confirmation that Modi’s mentality has not changed, have been withdrawn and sent to a joint parliamentary committee respectively. And the notification regarding lateral entry into the intermediate rungs of government was also withdrawn.

The judiciary which was, for the most part, a covert accomplice of the authoritarian regime seems to have responded haltingly to the gust of freedom that has blown our way. Its recent cheering judgements that ‘bail is the rule and jail the exception’ even in UAPA and PMLA cases were begging to be made for years.

As pointed out by Ravish Kumar in his recent forensic analysis of the subject, the half-hearted, ambivalent and even contrary judgements by the Supreme Court have not adequately served the cause of justice.

While Manish Sisodia, K. Kavitha and some others arrested in connection with the Delhi liquor policy case have finally been granted bail, Umar Khalid, the heroic student activist, remains in jail even after four years on the manifestly trumped-up charges of inciting the 2020 Delhi riots, whereas Kapil Mishra, whose hate-filled and incendiary speech triggered the riots according to most sources, has been untouched, which speaks volumes about our cock-eyed justice system.

It is curious that whereas the Supreme Court jumped into the fray in the R.G. Kar case by taking suo motu cognisance, it has maintained an apathetic silence in the face of the SEBI-Adani scandal revelations, which is worrying.

Despite irrefutable evidence that both the expert committee that it had appointed to examine the Hindenburg allegations as well as SEBI were guilty of dereliction in the remit entrusted to them, the Supreme Court has so far maintained a puzzling aloofness.

Hopefully, with democracy back on track, the Supreme Court will be under increasing public pressure to do the right thing by the law.

The tepid electoral outcome for the BJP has restored some sanity in India’s external affairs ministry, which for ten years functioned as the prime minister’s publicity bureau, single-mindedly focussed on promoting the Vishwaguru and his business cronies.

Despite the electoral setback, initially Modi acted like it was business and junket time as usual. But the lukewarm reception at the G-7 summit in Italy, and then the universal criticism of his defiant and supportive bear-hug of Putin in Moscow hours after a Russian strike on a Kyiv children’s hospital, made him change tactics.

There followed what should be called a balancing penitential visit to Ukraine, but his melodramatic expression of solicitude for the deaths and suffering caused by the war cut no ice with President Zelenskyy, who was not fooled and rebuffed the prime minister in no uncertain terms.

The image of the self-proclaimed peace-mediator lies in tatters! Who was it who said that democracy is an unending exercise in humbling the arrogant?

The positive signs are India’s new much-needed efforts to enhance cooperation and understanding with our neighbours, including Pakistan. There is now open acknowledgement that the border “dispute” and uneasy relations with China are indicative that we have a “special China problem” over and above the world’s “general China problem”. Will the government finally admit Chinese incursions into our territory?

It was supremely ironic but most heartening to hear Modi’s appeal to Bangladesh to protect and look after the interests of its minorities, including Hindus. He should heed Muhammad Yunus’s cautionary advice and make sure that his buddy – the smiling terminator – keeps her own counsel while under protective cover in India.

Also read: 9.23 Things to Think About as We Look at the 2024 Election Results

There is no doubt that the trappings of democracy are back, but it would be a mistake to conclude that these basic practices engendered by our new-found freedom are what democracy is all about. In truth, they only provide the preliminary groundwork for the more difficult tasks ahead.

To quote Babasaheb Ambedkar: “Political democracy cannot last unless there lies at the base of it social democracy. What does social democracy mean? It means a way of life which recognises liberty, equality and fraternity as the principles of life.”

We are nowhere near the kind of democracy we want to be! Only a society that has overcome prejudice and hatred and ensures equal treatment to all its citizens can claim to be a truly just society. Regrettably, the noble ideals set forth in the preamble, which spells out the resolve “to secure justice, liberty and equality for all its citizens and promote fraternity among all”, remain more elusive than ever.

Of the cherished values that attest to our commitment to secular humanism, the greatest and most neglected is fraternity, perhaps because it is least amenable to political action.

As a wise woman once observed, the state can prevent me from coveting my neighbour’s property, but it cannot oblige me, by law, to love my neighbour. Yet, the success of our pursuit to be a strong, united and happy country ultimately depends on whether we love one another – regardless of how we look, how we worship, what we eat, how we love.

Sadly, in the last ten years under Modi, our worst impulses have been unleashed. Fear and hate have consumed us and we are more divided than ever. There is little empathy and decency in our public discourse. The persecution and lynching of Muslims is a daily occurrence even today and it no longer excites interest, let alone outrage.

What’s at stake is not just our democracy, but our survival as a united republic. At this dangerous time, we need a leader who can think beyond himself and bring people together instead of dividing them to retain power. This country certainly does not need any more of the Modi leadership style.

It was hoped that the BJP itself with critical support from the RSS would bring about a change in party and government leadership, but the BJP parliamentary party meeting hasn’t happened after the Lok Sabha polls for the first time in decades. One cannot but continue to hope for a change from within, for the good of the country.

The writer is a former civil servant. The views are personal.

EC’s Final Voting Figures 11 Days Late, Get Flack for Inadequate Info, No Press Conference

Following the Election Commission’s releasing the data, some have questioned why it chose not to have the total number of electors and voters from each constituency, or have direct comparisons with voting data from the 2019 elections.

New Delhi: Phase 1 of the general elections this year saw a voter turnout of 66.14%, while Phase 2 saw a turnout of 66.71%, the Election Commission of India (ECI) said on Tuesday (April 30).

The first phase was conducted eleven days ago on April 19 and the second phase four days ago on April 26.

In the first phase, Bihar registered the lowest turnout of all states and Union territories at 49.26%, while Lakshadweep recorded the highest turnout at 84.16%.

As for the second phase, Uttar Pradesh saw the lowest turnout at 55.19% while Manipur saw the highest at 84.85%.

The ECI also released gender-wise turnout figures for each constituency that has voted so far as well as in aggregate per state or Union territory.

No direct figures on total electors and voters, or comparisons with 2019

Some have noted that in its figures released on Tuesday, the ECI only provided turnout percentages and did not include the total number of electors in a constituency or the number of people who voted in a given phase.

Journalist Poonam Agarwal posted on X (formerly Twitter) that in 2019, ECI provided these figures for the first phase of polls but did not do so this time around.

The Hindu Businessline has noted that while the total number of electors per Lok Sabha constituency is not available on the commission’s website, information on the number of electors per booth in assembly segments are available, although the websites for the state election commissions of Bihar, Delhi and Odisha were not displaying this data.

Agarwal also noted that the ECI provided turnout figures for each constituency – also aggregated at the state or Union territory level – from the 2019 general elections, though it did not directly compare current figures with the previous election’s figures as it did in 2019.

In the 2019 Loksabha elections the #ElectionCommission uploaded Voter Turnout data in numbers (EVM votes polled) & also compared it with the 2014 LS elections.
But a drastic change has occured in the #LokSabhaElections2024 . Why are they providing votes polled data in %? Why not… pic.twitter.com/NWXuvXOwBe

— Poonam Agarwal (@poonamjourno) April 30, 2024

Delay in phase 1 figures and difference between phase 2 figures raise questions

The commission’s final data for the turnout in phase 1 comes 11 days after voting in that phase took place, terming some to call this “unusual”.

The ECI did not say in its press release on Tuesday what caused the delay.

Although the final turnout for phase 2 is a reported 66.71%, the ECI pegged the approximate turnout as of 7 pm on April 26 at 60.96% in an official press release.

Although the jump of close to six percentage points is not nearly as high as the 14.65 percentage point increase that was witnessed in Bangladesh’s elections earlier this year, some have questioned it nonetheless, saying it warrants an explanation on the commission’s behalf.

“Five percent isn’t a small increase. Shouldn’t there be an explanation?” journalist Parth M.N. posted on X.

Other estimates from later on April 26 estimated a higher turnout for the second phase. PTI reported at 8 pm that evening, citing the ECI, that the turnout for the second phase was 63.5%.

The last official communication from the poll body regarding the turnout that day seems to be its 7 pm estimate.

The ECI also has a voter turnout app where it provides approximate turnout figures per constituency and updates it at certain intervals.

By 7 pm on April 27, the Indian Express had reported citing ECI sources that the turnout had gone up to 66.7% – the same as the figure released this Tuesday.

For phase 1, the commission’s press release did not specify what its estimated turnout was as of 7 pm on the day of voting, saying only that it was “over 60%”.

Later on April 19, PTI cited the ECI’s turnout figure for that day as being 62.37%, and other reports later still pegged it at 65.5%.

‘No Redistribution in Congress Manifesto, BJP Wants to Distract and Communalise’: Amitabh Dubey

Amitabh Dubey, a member of the Congress’s manifesto committee, underlines in an interview to The Wire that the idea of his party’s manifesto is to analyse where government funds go and how to increase representation.

New Delhi: As Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other top Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders accuse the Congress of promising in its manifesto that it will redistribute resources in the country and give them to Muslims, specifically mentioning land, gold and women’s mangalsutras, the Congress has accused the saffron party of distracting and communalising voters.

In an interview with The Wire, Amitabh Dubey, a member of the Congress’s manifesto committee, said that the document does not talk about redistribution.

“We are very clear about what we mean. The prime minister’s false claims are, in our mind, the ravings of a panicky mind who has seen the inevitable, which is an election defeat, and is trying to throw distraction bombs everywhere,” he said.

“But we are very clear. [The] first thing the manifesto talks about is that inequality is a huge problem in the country. It is a global problem, but in India, it is particularly acute.

“As the data shows, as Thomas Piketty and his co-authors have shown this empirically, the top 1% has 40% of the wealth of the country. The level of inequality has soared to higher levels than the British Raj, which is quite an indictment of the Modi government and its policies.”

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

Dubey said that the Congress manifesto lists a set of proposals to address inequality, including providing Rs 1 lakh per year to poor women, Rs 400 in wages under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, apprenticeship programmes, filling 30 lakh Union government vacancies, providing a legal guarantee for minimum support prices as well as a socio-economic caste census.

“So this is a package to address the inequalities that have gone up to record levels under the Modi government. All these proposals are for all segments of society and are not aimed at minorities or SC/ST/OBCs specifically, but to all poor people,” he said.

Dubey said the proposals also seek to address caste discrimination but do not talk about the redistribution of property.

“There is no redistribution of property. It is about where the resources go, and government land is a part of that. We are not taking land away from anyone,” he said, adding that government land has been distributed to the underprivileged in the past.

“It is not about redistribution of anyone’s property, it is about how government money is spent and how these groups are represented,” he said.

While the BJP has spun a communal narrative by referring to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s 2006 speech at the national defence council, where he spoke about minorities and particularly Muslims having the first claim to India’s resources, Dubey said that the speech is available for everyone to see and read.

“Mr Modi’s policies have been an attack on everyone. He is bringing in the religious aspect [and] he is trying to divide the poor on religious grounds,” Dubey said, adding that the poor “understand … that they are all being discriminated against, [that] the OBCs are the largest section of the poor, [and] that his policies are against SCs/STs/OBCs, economically weaker sections and minorities.”

“Which brings me to the point that Dr Manmohan Singh had made. It is very clear, everyone can watch the speech or read the transcript, where he said that the first claim of resources should go to the disadvantaged, which is the SCs/STs/OBCs [and] minorities. This is clearly a distortion,” he said.

Dubey said that the BJP’s attempt to equate the manifesto’s promises by alleging that the Congress wants to run the government by “Sharia law” and allow the slaughter of cows, and equating the document to that of the Muslim League, shows that the Modi government is “desperate” to cling to power.

“There are clearly two things that are going on. One is, our feedback, the feedback of many parties, and I am sure the feedback for the BJP, is that all of their gambits in the last few months have failed to convert into votes,” he said.

“Their vote share is dropping and they will go below 180 seats and the opposition will come up. So they are trying to distract from inflation and unemployment, which have come up in the elections as the two main issues that voters care about.

“And the other thing that has happened is that the turnout has dropped sharply. So what is probably happening in our view is that their base is not voting.

“So perhaps to whip up their base and convince them to think about religious issues and not economic issues, they are engaging in this rhetoric. It has clearly not worked in the first two rounds, we don’t expect it to work in the coming rounds.

This government is on its way out and these are the last desperate attempts on its way out to cling to power,” he said.

Modi Behaving Like ‘Petty Panchayat Pradhan’: K’taka Minister Krishna Byre Gowda

The minister from the state’s Congress government also said that the 2024 general election is being fought over real livelihood issues like price rise, unemployment and the growing gap between the rich and the poor.

New Delhi: A little over a year since the Congress wrested power from the BJP in Karnataka, often considered to be the saffron party’s gateway to the South, its prospects will again be tested in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

The state’s historical trend is inimical to the grand old party’s interests. Since 1996, the BJP has consistently increased its vote share in parliamentary polls; it has also been the single largest party in all Lok Sabha polls since 2004.

However, a number of pre-electoral surveys have pointed out that the Congress could buck the trend and dislodge the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, securing anywhere between 12 and 18 seats out of the 28 in Karnataka.

The Congress believes that the second term of the Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar-led government is the first in Karnataka to have fulfilled its five poll “guarantees” in a matter of three to four months – a factor that will also keep the Congress in good stead in the Lok Sabha polls.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

The Wire spoke with the state’s revenue minister, senior Congress leader and popular legislator of Bengaluru North’s Byatarayanapura assembly seat, Krishna Byre Gowda, when he was in New Delhi to appear in the Supreme Court for a case related to the Union government’s alleged delay in disbursing drought relief funds and GST compensation to Karnataka.

In this no-holds barred conversation, Byre Gowda claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi behaves like a “petty panchayat pradhan” when he resorts to “abusing” states like Karnataka, who are claiming what is rightfully theirs from the Union government.

He also said that while the BJP successfully got dividends from a manufactured political narrative, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls will be fought on real livelihood issues of the people like price rise, unemployment and the growing gap between the rich and the poor.

“There are no platforms in this country where the voices of the people can be heard. The environment is one of fear. But I believe that the moment has arrived when people will vote on real issues of livelihood,” he said.

“You can suppress the voices of the people and create fabricated narratives. But voices, long suppressed, will be heard in crucial moments of time. This is one such moment,” he said.

“The Centre itself had allocated Rs 5,300 crore for the Upper Bhadra drinking water project. Not even a single paisa has been released yet … [similarly], the Union government is sitting on our request for drought relief funds from November 20, 2023,” Byre Gowda said, adding that 223 out of Karnataka’s 225 talukas are facing a drought.

He said that if one clubs various heads together, the losses faced by states like Karnataka would be “roughly Rs 50,000 crore” every year.

Byre Gowda said that ideally in a Union set-up, the states and the Centre should sit together, discuss and resolve issues; but instead of listening to the states, the Union government has only “abused” states as “separatists”.

“For asking politely, pressing the [Union] government, we get abused. India is a diverse country with diverse interests. You must listen to every person in the Union. That is the only way you can strengthen India…

“But the situation is such that if a farmer raises his or her concerns, [they get] abused. If states voice their concerns, they get abused…

“This government doesn’t want to be questioned. See, from November, they don’t have five minutes to take a decision on our request for drought relief funds” Byre Gowda said.

Also read: New Frontlines Before Elections Force Modi Govt to Be Answerable on Bread and Butter Issues

Hitting out at the Modi government, he said that it believes in a “my way or the highway” kind of approach.

“When we raise these issues [the judicious devolution of taxes, GST compensation, drought relief funds], the PM goes ballistic and says that ‘desh todne ka baat ho raha hai’ [‘there is talk of dividing the country’]. The same PM as the Gujarat CM had said that Gujarat should not give even a single paisa to the Centre. The Centre needs to understand the basic needs of the state,” he said.

Byre Gowda said that the BJP will have to pay the price in Karnataka as people are resentful towards its MPs in the state.

“There is a change in the mood of the people. Having voted for the BJP consistently, people are itching for a change. They are disappointed with MPs from Karnataka. They never raised their voice for the people – whether it is the water crisis or the devolution of taxes. They have only sided with the BJP leadership rather than the people of Karnataka…

“MPs have become agents of injustice in Karnataka,” he said.

The Karnataka minister also felt the BJP was only “kite-flying” about its achievements.

“Growth rate has been less, employment generation has dropped, growth in per capita income was higher during the Manmohan Singh government. The only thing that has increased [during Modi’s tenure] is the gap between the rich and the poor of India,” he said.

He said that the prime minister and the BJP only abuse the opposition instead of recalling their own achievements.

“Recently the PM was in Mysore; out of the 30 minutes he spoke for, he spent 20 minutes just abusing the opposition. You are behaving like a petty panchayat pradhan, demonising the opposition, demonising a certain community just for [seeking votes]. It is unbecoming of a prime minister.”

“People have seen enough drama, people have given them a chance also time and again. Somewhere deep down [beneath] these diversionary tactics [and] muscular politics, they know that you can’t fool people all the time. That moment has come,” he said.

“We are working for the poor, not working for the rich. That is what the BJP is not being able to digest,” he said.

He added that Modi’s tenure will be remembered for the worst Centre-state relations in Indian history and that the Lok Sabha elections are a time to “save democracy”, as his regime has also seen the maximum attacks on the people’s and on opposition voices through “extra-constitutional” means.

Not the BJP, but the Opposition Has Fielded More OBCs and Dalits in UP This Time

The INDIA bloc’s caste-wise distribution of candidates will not quite follow the ‘Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak’ formula that Akhilesh Yadav promised – but will be a bold political manoeuvre where for the first time in a decade, the BJP will be on the backfoot.

New Delhi: The Samajwadi Party (SP)-led INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh is set to field more backward caste and Dalit candidates than the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

This is considered a step in the direction of dismantling the BJP’s unchecked hegemony among the marginalised but numerically-dominant Hindu communities.

The SP has not been completely honest with its election slogan of PDA – Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak – as it has fielded Muslims much below their representation in the state population.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

However, through a greater share in candidate selection for OBCs and Dalits, it has fulfilled its strategy of matching the BJP in wooing the critically-important Hindu ‘Bahujan’ vote.

OBCs and Dalits together represent at least 60 to 65% of the state’s population and have been pivotal in helping the Narendra Modi-led BJP come to power and furthering its saffron politics.

UP has 80 Lok Sabha seats. So far, the BJP-led NDA has named its candidates in 77 seats. The INDIA bloc – the SP, Congress and Trinamool Congress (TMC) – has declared its candidates in 75.

An analysis of the castes of the candidates by The Wire shows that the BJP and its allies have fielded 29 backward caste candidates and 32 from the ‘upper castes’ (UCs).

The party has declared Dalit candidates only in reserved seats.

There are 17 reserved seats in UP. So far, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has named candidates in 16. The NDA, staying true to its majoritarian Hindutva agenda, has not declared a single Muslim candidate.

Uttar Pradesh has 80 Lok Sabha constituencies, 17 of which are reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates. Photo: Furfur/Wikimedia Commons/CC BY-SA 3.0.

What’s striking is that although the BJP claims to best represent OBCs and Dalits, the single largest communities to benefit from its ticket distribution are dominant Hindu groups such as Brahmins and Thakurs.

Out of the 32 UCs in the fray for the NDA, a whopping 17 are Brahmins and 11 are Thakur. That (28) is almost as many as the number of OBCs fielded by the party, even though OBCs are estimated to be more than three times their combined population.

The NDA has also nominated two from the Bania community and one Bhumihar.

The number of UCs fielded by the BJP is expected to go up. The party is yet to declare candidates in Kaiserganj and Rae Bareli, where it has traditionally fielded UCs.

The third seat where the NDA is yet to nominate a candidate is Robertsganj – a reserved constituency.

Polarising the non-Yadav OBCs against the Yadavs and consolidating their scattered votes has so far been the BJP’s central strategy in UP. The main opposition party in the state, the SP, has for years been battling a perception, partly due to media propaganda and party due to its own inadequacies, that it only represents the interests of the Yadav community, to which its top leadership belongs.

The BJP has projected the SP as a party that appeases Muslims and Yadavs at the cost of other communities, especially non-Yadav backward castes.

To cement this theory, the BJP has not only formed alliances with smaller non-Yadav OBC-based groups – the Nishad Party, the Apna Dal (Sonelal), the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party – but also projected its star campaigner, PM Modi, as a backward caste face.

Also read: Projecting the Opposition as Anti-Hindu Remains Modi’s Main Strategy

The BJP has peddled a theory that Yadavs have cornered the 27% OBC quota even though various government reports show that other dominant backward castes such as Kurmis, Jats and Gurjars also secured shares of government jobs and political representation that are disproportionately higher than their population share.

To counter this narrative, the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP has increased representation for non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits in candidate selection in 2024.

The SP is contesting 62 seats on its own symbol. The party has so far fielded 29 OBCs, of which only five are Yadav.

The SP’s OBC figure could hit 30 as the party, sources indicated, is likely to field another OBC (Kurmi) in Fatehpur.

The SP is contesting 14 seats reserved for Dalits but is set to field 16 Dalits this election, as it has declared two Dalit candidates – Sunita Verma in Meerut and Awadesh Pradesh in Faizabad – on general seats as part of the PDA experiment.

It has declared 11 UC candidates: three each from the Thakur and Brahmin communities, two Banias, two Kayasthas and one Bhumihar.

Although Muslims are 20% of the state’s population, the SP has fielded only four in this election.

The SP’s ally, the Congress, has nominated a larger percentage of UCs. Assuming that it fields UCs in Amethi and Rae Bareli, in nine out of the 17 seats the Congress is contesting – almost 53% – its candidates would be UCs.

The Congress has nominated two Muslim candidates – in Amroha and Saharanpur – and three Dalits on reserved seats.

Also read: BJP’s Rise Has Meant a Shrinking Number of Muslim Lawmakers in India

Three others are non-Yadav OBCs – Gaderia, Kurmi and Teli.

The INDIA bloc has left the Bhadohi seat in Purvanchal for the TMC, which has fielded a Brahmin.

We found that across 80 seats, the NDA is expected to field 34 UCs, 29 OBCs and 17 Dalits (all on reserved seats). This is based on the presumption that the BJP will field UCs in Rae Bareli and Kaiserganj, two general seats where it is still undecided.

On the other hand, in the 75 seats declared by the INDIA bloc, 32 are OBC, 19 UCs, 18 Dalits and six Muslims.

As per our estimate, when all 80 candidates are declared, the INDIA bloc’s figures will read as follows: 33 OBC, 22 UCs, 19 Dalits and six Muslims.

Not quite the Pichda Dalit Alpsankhyak formula that Akhilesh Yadav promised – what has emerged is the Pichda Dalit Agda (UC) version of the PDA – but a bold political manoeuvre, where for the first time in a decade, the BJP is on the backfoot.

Notably, the SP has invested a lot this time in middle OBC castes linked to farming and horticulture. The party fielded Kurmis in nine seats (expected to increase to ten, as per sources) and candidates of the Shakya-Saini-Kushwaha-Maurya group in six seats.

In comparison, the landed dominant OBC groups of west UP – Jats and Gurjars – have got only one candidate each.

All five Yadavs fielded by the SP are from the clan of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav. Akhilesh Yadav’s wife Dimple is the candidate in Mainpuri, while his cousins Dharmendra Yadav, Akshay Yadav, Aditya Yadav and Tez Pratap Yadav are in the fray in Azamgarh, Firozabad Budaun and Kannauj, respectively.

The SP has also given four tickets to the riverine Mallah/Nishad caste groups and one each to the Gaderia, Lodhi and Rajbhar communities.

The INDIA bloc’s figures are not quite the ‘Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak’ formula that Akhilesh Yadav promised – but are nonetheless a bold manoeuvre. Photo: X/@samajwadiparty.

The BJP’s caste breakdown is slightly different. The party and its allies have declared three candidates from the Gurjar community, four Jats, four Lodhis, four from the Nishad/Kashyap castes, seven Kurmis and three from the Shakya-Saini-Kushwaha category.

The NDA has also fielded two Telis (including Modi in Varanasi) and a Rajbhar. The BJP has fielded a lone Yadav candidate, Bhojpuri star Dinesh Lal Yadav aka Nirahua, in Azamgarh.

Successive defeats have forced Akhilesh Yadav to rope in Ambedkarite OBC and Dalit leaders from the Bahujan Samaj Party while increasing the representation of these communities in the party structure as well as in candidate selection.

Some of these backward caste leaders who are in the fray this time are senior Kurmi leader Lalji Verma in Ambedkar Nagar, Gaderia leader Raja Ram Pal in Akbarpur and Babu Singh Kushwaha in Jaunpur.

What’s also notable about the SP in this election is that out of the 62 seats it is contesting on its own symbol, only nine belong to its traditional social base of Muslims and Yadavs. That is less than 15%, which is half of the total population of Muslims and Yadavs in the state.

The final battle as well as the result may be hinged on multiple factors, including the opposition’s reluctance to showcase a PM face against Modi and issues of Hindutva, Hindu polarisation and resources.

However, by surpassing the BJP in ticket distribution to OBCs and Dalits, the SP has taken a step in the right direction in signalling to these communities that it is willing to give them hissedari as per their abadi (representation as per population).

Projecting the Opposition as Anti-Hindu Remains Modi’s Main Strategy

Modi’s address in Amroha yesterday demonstrated how he tries to rake up religious sentiments, belying claims by the BJP that it was seeking votes from people on the basis of unprecedented development work and on the implementation of welfare schemes.

New Delhi: Projecting the opposition as ‘anti-Hindu’ and ‘pro-Muslim’ has emerged as the favourite tactic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign, as he seeks a third term in the country.

His public address on April 19 in Amroha in west Uttar Pradesh demonstrated how the BJP’s star campaigner tries to rake up religious sentiments, belying claims by the saffron party that it was seeking votes from people on the basis of unprecedented development work and the implementation of welfare schemes.

Modi made a direct attack on the Congress candidate and sitting Amroha MP Kunwar Danish Ali, who is a Muslim, saying he did not deserve to enter the Lok Sabha as he had objected to chanting ‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’.

“The Congress candidate here [Danish Ali] had an objection to even saying ‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’. Is it proper that a person who doesn’t accept Bharat Mata ki Jai sits in parliament? Should such a person get entry into India’s parliament?”, Modi asked.

The PM, who was speaking even as eight seats in west UP were voting in the first phase, accused the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Congress and the INDIA bloc of not leaving “any stones unturned in attacking our faith”.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

To target the opposition and draw his connection with UP, he evoked Ayodhya, Dwarka and Kashi – three of the holiest cities for Hindus.

Like he has done in several rallies since January 22, Modi targeted the SP and Congress for not attending the pran pratishtha (consecration ceremony) of the Ram Mandir, which was built in Ayodhya following a Supreme Court verdict more than three decades after the Mughal-era Babri Masjid was demolished by Hindu right-wing fundamentalists assembled by the Sangh parivar.

Modi linked the SP and Congress’s refusal to attend the Ayodhya ceremony to Muslim “appeasement,” a bogey raised by the Hindu right to accuse opposition parties of pandering to India’s Muslim minority at the cost of Hindus.

“Can you imagine that people, hungry for their vote bank, rejected the invitation for the pran prathistha ceremony? On the other hand, look at those people who all their lives fought the Babri Masjid case, lost in the Supreme [Court] and willingly participated in the pran Pratishtha,” said Modi.

“These people are even ashamed of this. They are even more “gaye-beete” than them [the Babri Masjid petitioners].”

Hindus make up roughly 80% of the voters in UP. Muslims, the largest minority, are almost one-fifth of the electorate.

In west UP, however, the population of Muslims is much higher than the state average and over the years, the BJP has resorted to tactics to trigger a consolidation of Hindu voters for electoral gains.

Modi said that even after rejecting the invitation to Ayodhya, opposition parties felt their “vote bank remained kachhi [unconsolidated]”, so they resorted to “vilifying” the Ram Mandir and sanatan astha (faith).

“On Ram Navami, a grand surya tilak [a beam of sunlight was projected onto the forehead of Ram’s idol in the Ayodhya temple] of Ram Lalla took place. You must have seen it. Today, the entire country is ‘Ram-mai’. But these SP people, for the sake of their vote bank, publicly say that those who are devoted to Ram are ‘pakhandi’,” said Modi.

Further pressing the point, Modi said: “Are you all pakhandis? Are Ram bhakts all pakhandi? Are those who worship Ram pakhandi? The INDI Alliance people loathe sanatan.”

Modi then referred to the event when he went under water in the sea and offered prayers at the submerged ‘ancient’ city of Dwarka linked to Lord Krishna by Hindus.

“Shri Krishna went to Gujarat from here. And look at the fun, I was born in Gujarat and came and sat at the feet of UP. Kashi made me an MP [laughs]. I went to Dwarka and prayed at the ancient site of Dwarka Nagri of Shri Krishna underwater, discovered by archaeologists. I also offered peacock feathers, which Shri Krishna likes,” said Modi.

The PM used the incident to target the Congress, especially Rahul Gandhi.

“But Congress’s shehzada [prince] says there is nothing worth worshipping under the sea. Thousands of years of our beliefs and bhakti, of which there is physical evidence … this is how these people are rejecting it, and all for vote bank,” said Modi.

He also did not spare the Yadav leaders of the SP and the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Bihar – Akhilesh Yadav and Lalu Yadav’s family – for allying with the Congress, whom he accused of insulting a person – Modi himself – who worshiped Dwarka.

“Those people who beat their drum by calling themselves Yaduvanshis, I want to ask them. Those in Bihar who claim to be Yaduvanshi and those leaders in UP who step out to reap benefits (malai khane) of [their] Yaduvanshi [background], I want to ask them, if you are true Yaduvanshis, how can you sit together with a party that has insulted a person who worshipped Bhagwan Dwarika? How can you reach an understanding with them?”

The PM also referred to communal tensions and the conspiracy theory of a Hindu exodus in west UP to further rake up Hindi insecurity.

The “game of appeasement” had scorched UP, especially West UP, through the “fire of riots. People had to flee their homes,” he said.

“In West UP, people used to be forced to collectively put up posters of ‘This house is for sale’. Our ‘behen–betiyan [sisters and daughters] were not safe.”

Referring to the controversial iron-fist policy adopted by the state government led by Yogi Adityanath to tackle crime and take action against suspected criminals, political opponents and ordinary citizens, Modi said Adityanath had “freed” the people from such criminals.

But he warned, “We must not, under any cost, let those forces become strong again.”

Gujarat: Congress Candidate Alleges She Was Stopped From Campaigning By Police

Sonal Patel, the Congress candidate from Gandhinagar – the seat Amit Shah will also contest from – alleged that BJP workers stopped her car and threatened her on April 8. She said her party workers in Sanand were also harassed into silence.

New Delhi: “I was stopped from campaigning. If the BJP is so confident of victory, why stop other candidates from campaigning?”, asks Sonal Patel, the Congress’s candidate from Gujarat’s Gandhinagar.

Patel, 63, is contesting from Gandhinagar, which is also being eyed by Union home minister and BJP candidate Amit Shah, for his second tenure – the BJP has, since 1989, been on a winning spree in the Gandhinagar parliamentary constituency.

In 2019, Amit Shah secured a massive victory, defeating the rival Congress candidate Chatursinh Javanji Chavda by over 5.5 lakh votes.

“They want to create some sort of record victory like in 2019. That is why they are using the police to create obstacles in other candidates’ campaigning routines,” alleges Patel.

Patel, also the party co-in charge for Mumbai and western Maharashtra, is solid in her struggle against Shah.

“How is it that there are security issues only for me in Gandhinagar, that other people can freely campaign but the Congress can’t?” Patel asks.

Apart from being stopped in Gandhinagar, Patel has alleged that Congress workers in Sanand were also harassed into silence and coerced into exhibiting non-participant behaviour in campaign routines.

Patel has served as a member of several architecture organisations. Before being elevated to the post of All-India Congress Committee secretary, Patel served as the president of the Gujarat Pradesh Mahila Congress Committee between 2012 and 2018.

For Patel, ever since she decided to campaign at the beginning of April, she was coerced into staying silent.

On April 8, her vehicle was allegedly surrounded and stopped by BJP office bearers, where she was threatened with dire consequences if she did not leave.

This added to the fear, due to which many supporters did not come out for the next day’s campaigning round.

Also read: At Launch of New Book, Christophe Jaffrelot Talks Moditva, Undermining the Rule of Law and Gujarat

Patel also told The Wire that Congress workers were being threatened not to put up banners. Congress banners have also been removed from several places, she said.

Sources have revealed to The Wire that various community and political leaders from the Gandhinagar Lok Sabha constituency were being subjected to undue pressure from the state apparatus simply to reduce their involvement in and support towards Congress campaigns.

Locals have also alleged that anti-social elements have been called and instructed to disrupt voting on election day and to ensure that no rickshaws are available in the afternoon.

Regarding this mass movement of the state apparatus against several candidates who are opposing the BJP in the ongoing elections, Shabnam Hashmi, a social activist and human rights campaigner, visited six assembly constituencies – Sabarmati, Sanand, Vejalpur, Kalol, Ghatlodia and Naranpura – to see the ground reality for herself.

Upon observation and interaction with over 200 community leaders, ordinary people, Congress and AAP members and district level leaders, and some candidates fighting from other parties, Hashmi wrote to the chief election commissioner (CEC) on how the police, including the crime branch, were either cajoling people into becoming inactive or not campaigning for Congress candidates, or were threatening people with consequences if they did not agree to do this.

Some were threatened with “dire consequences of cases being filed against them or with [the] reopening of old cases of petty crime and turning them into big ones”, Hashmi alleged.

She noticed that while some were told strongly not to campaign for the Congress, others were told to remain at home and eat chicken and fish (‘zaroorat hogi to bhijwa doonga’ – if you need, I will send – one person allegedly said).

Hashmi also writes how meetings were held at the Karnawati Club with community leaders where crime branch and special operations group officers, the police, and one former and one incumbent BJP MLA respectively were present, and that they were told strictly to ensure that candidates are put up and nominations filed. She also alleged that money was “being offered openly”.

In her letter to the CEC, Hashmi wrote of how in 2019, Juhapura and many other Muslim areas in Ahmedabad had witnessed disruption during polling when anti-social elements supported by BJP MLAs and the police had snatched away election lists, thrown away tables used by volunteers outside booths and created a ruckus so that more voters did not come out to vote.

She specifically said this happened outside FD School, NK School, Bata School, Makdampura School, AI School, Sunrise School, New Age School, Sian School and Adarsh Hindi Vidyalaya, among other places.

Her letter also acknowledges how, in hundreds of places in the Gandhinagar constituency, hoardings with photos of the Ayodhya Ram Temple are up with text such as ‘phir ek baar Modi sarkar’, ‘Modi ki guarantee’, ‘Viksit Bharat’, ‘500 varsh baad bhaviya mandir’ and ‘Shri Ram Mandir – Kamal ka button dabao, Bhajapa ko jitao, Gandhinagar Lok Sabha show, 18 April 2024, Guruwar’.

Stating how Patel and others were harassed, Hashmi has requested the CEC to take steps to stop this harassment of local voters as well as of community and political leaders by the local state machinery.

Patel and Hashmi have both urged authorities to ensure that extra forces are deployed in the Gandhinagar constituency to ensure that people can vote peacefully and that on May 7, anti-social elements, the local police and the ruling party do not create a situation like they did in 2019.

#FactCheck: Amit Shah Is Completely Wrong When He Said Tamil Nadu has ‘Not Witnessed Development’

Tamil Nadu is a humming manufacturing hub – one of the biggest in India – and has steadily outstripped large states in north India. The distance has grown over time. It has only 2% poor, as per government data, versus Gujarat’s 12%, UP’s 23% and Bihar’s 34%.

While out campaigning in Tamil Nadu’s Madurai last week and referring to “both parties” – the DMK and AIADMK – Amit Shah said they had ensured that Tamil Nadu had ‘not witnessed development’.

He reportedly asked the people of the state to find out about the offences both parties had committed and send them packing, by electing Prime Minister Narendra Modi, “who was taking the country along a developmental path, for the third time.”

But Shah’s statements are completely at variance with the facts.

1. Tamil Nadu is among the largest manufacturing bases in India.

It had 39,512 factories in FY22 – the highest in India – according to the statistics ministry’s Annual Survey of Industries.

2. As part of the so-called global ‘China+1’ strategy, India has been hoping to position itself as an alternate manufacturing destination for multinational companies, which the US can in turn source from.

In India, Tamil Nadu is a major hub for the electronic manufacturing services sector, say analysts.

The Apple/iPhone factories that Modi loves boasting about are in Tamil Nadu. In December 2023, it was reported that Tata planned to build one of India’s biggest iPhone assembly plants in Tamil Nadu’s Hosur. Bloomberg reported citing sources that the plant would provide 50,000 workers jobs within two years.

3. There were social media messages out earlier this year that UP had “surpassed” Tamil Nadu’s rate of growth, the political point being that UP is the new boom centre.

Adityanath is taken everywhere as a key campaigner for the BJP. But former finance minister and now IT minister in Tamil Nadu, P. Thiagarajan, established that

“Two decades ago, Uttar Pradesh’s economy was 19% larger than that of Tamil Nadu (2004-2005) and remained larger up until 2013-2014. It has only fallen behind as that of Tamil Nadu since the dawn of “Acche Din”, and was most recently 95.48% of Tamil Nadu’s economy (2022-2023).”

Credit: Frontline magazine. Source: https://ptrmadurai.com/has-uttar-pradesh-s-economy-surpassed-tamil-nadu.

BJP’s Tie-Up With RLD Helps Consolidation of Jats in Muzaffarnagar, But Not Everyone is Happy

One thing is clear: Muzaffarnagar will be a good test of the compatibility between the RLD and BJP after a decade of antagonism. Without the support of the RLD old-timers, the BJP might find it hard to win here.

Muzaffarnagar (UP): A lonely stretch of road, cutting past brick-kilns and sheds housing ‘kolhus’ (crushing machines used to extract sugarcane juice), brings us to the centre of Goyla.

The mid-April afternoon sun is beating hard in the village. Barring labourers working in the kolhus near the fields and the odd farmer moving freshly-harvested sugarcane on tractors, the mood here is lethargic.

Joginder Malik, a Jat farmer who owns 50 to 60 bighas of land, rushes to get a long hookah as he sits on a chair next to a wooden cot in the shaded part of his large house.

“Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) will gain from the alliance,” said Joginder. He is glad that RLD chief Chaudhary Jayant Singh cut ties with the INDIA bloc and switched over to the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

Joginder feels the RLD-BJP alliance has eliminated the confusion and dilemma that Jat voters would have felt had the two parties, which have over the last decade emerged as the main two political options for the Jat community in western Uttar Pradesh, contested as opponents.

His choice for prime minister is Narendra Modi, whom he praises for “doing the best” for the country and modernising the armed forces by providing them bullet proof vests. Road connectivity has also improved under the BJP, he adds.

But Joginder also has complaints, especially regarding sugarcane farming, the main source of livelihood and the pivot of cultural life in this region.

In January, the BJP-run state government increased the state-advised price for sugarcane by Rs 20 per quintal, taking the price of the early maturing variety from Rs 350 to Rs 370.

While the BJP took the decision to woo sugarcane farmers, especially from the influential Jat community, farmers feel Rs 20 was too less given the incremental rise in the costs of farming material and labour, and overall inflation.

Despite government subsidy, pesticides, whose use has increased over time, continue to be expensive.

Farmers, including Joginder, have demanded that the hike should have been at least Rs 40.

Jats in Muzaffarnagar. Photo: Omar Rashid.

But these are not factors on which Joginder will cast his vote.

“In west UP, the main issue is of security. Even Mayawati and the Akhilesh Yadav governments increased cane prices. But there was a sense of constant fear in the minds of people,” said Joginder.

Today, under BJP rule, one can visit the field at any time of the day without being looted or harmed, he said.

The crimes he refers to have a clear communal undertone. His daughter Sakshi Malik, who has a B.Ed degree, claimed that when other parties ruled UP, Muslims would corner lonely stretches of roads in the village or set up stalls on one side of two-way roads to sell meat, thereby putting lives at risk and also disturbing the flow of traffic.

“It used to be unsafe. Loot incidents were common. Safety is my main concern,” said Sakshi, whose parents sent her to study outside Muzaffarnagar after the deadly communal riots of 2013, in which over 60 people were killed.

Although the fire of that bloody incident has been doused with time, the mistrust of the Hindu community towards local Muslims surfaces every now and then.

It is in this scenario, of pressing agrarian questions and shadows of communal divisions, that the INDIA bloc faces the task of challenging the BJP in Muzaffarnagar, one of the most vibrant and prestigious constituencies in the first phase of voting.

The constituency comprises Budhana, Charthawal, Khatauli and Muzaffarnagar assembly units in Muzaffarnagar district and the Sardhana assembly seat in Meerut.

In 2014, when the BJP stormed to power at the Centre, a lot of credit went to the communal polarisation that was created by the Muzaffarnagar riots.

The saffron wind travelled to other parts of the state, helping the BJP and its ally, the Apna Dal, win 73 out of 80 seats.

This time, Muzaffarnagar stands out for two specific reasons. One, it is the only seat out of 80 where the opposition INDIA bloc has fielded a Jat. The Samajwadi Party (SP)’s Harendra Malik, a senior Jat leader and former MP, is pitted against the sitting BJP MP, Sanjeev Balyan, himself a Jat, who rose to prominence following the 2013 riots.

Two, the big question being asked here is: what impact will the RLD’s switch to the BJP have on the Jats here after a decade of anti-BJP politics by Chaudhary Jayant Singh, who dubbed the saffron party as anti-farmer and anti-Jat?

Jats who have supported the RLD all their lives feel the BJP short-changed Jayant Chaudhary. Photo: X/@jayantrld.

It is said that when the RLD broke ties with the SP, one of the points of contention was that the RLD was unwilling to give up its claim on Muzaffarnagar.

Interestingly, after switching to the NDA, the RLD not only got a reduced share of two seats to contest, as against the seven granted to it by the SP, but it also ceded Muzaffarnagar to the BJP.

Anecdotal testimonies suggest that while the RLD-BJP alliance has provided a layer of cushion to the BJP and helped it send a message of consolidation among the Jats, there are many who are not convinced by the RLD’s sudden step.

Since the BJP candidate Sanjeev Balyan is not doing too well on the popularity charts these days, the resentment in a section of Jats, groomed in anti-BJP politics over the years and who participated in several farmers protests, has brought hope to the opposition here.

That the opposition candidate is himself a Jat has opened up an option for the disgruntled among the Jats.

“If Jayant Chaudhary has so much influence on the BJP, why could he not get the Muzaffarnagar seat for his party? He could have at least got Sanjeev Balyan replaced!” said Balram Balyan, a farmer and RLD supporter.

Many like Balram are unhappy that Jayant Singh switched over to the NDA after the Modi government awarded the Bharat Ratna to his grandfather and former PM, Chaudhary Charan Singh, without any consultation.

“Nothing has changed for the kisan after the Bharat Ratna. Have the prices fallen? People still don’t have jobs. Then there is this mischief over Agniveer. Neither Hindus nor Muslims are able to get married easily,” said Balram.

“Jayant has managed to get five-six laddoos in his hand. What’s he going to do with them – eat them himself or feed those around him?”

The joke was on the two seats the RLD is fighting in this election – Baghpat and Bijnor – as part of the NDA.

Jats who have supported the RLD all their lives feel the BJP short-changed Jayant Chaudhary.

Others recall how the police under the BJP-ruled government had lathi charged Jayant when he was on his way to Hathras in 2020 and the death of hundreds of farmers while agitating against the three farm laws brought by the Modi government.

A Jat man in Muzaffarnagar. Photo: Omar Rashid.

A section of Jats also feel the RLD should not have supported the BJP, as the party had defeated Jayant’s father and former MP Ajit Singh in Muzaffarnagar in 2019.

Mahek Singh, a prominent farmer, praises Modi and Adityanath for their overall rule, but he feels the Congress was “soft” on farmers. He is not happy that other marginalised communities are reaping the benefits of the BJP government’s welfare schemes.

Like in most cases here, this also has a communal tinge. Many Jats The Wire spoke to felt that Muslims, who have large populations in many districts in west UP, were reaping the most out of the saffron party’s welfare schemes, including free ration, pucca homes and state-funded weddings.

“The Muslims are getting the most benefits. They are getting free ration. It is they who have large families. We are not even getting labourers. Small farmers are unable to even pay the rates for labourers on their farms,” said Mahek, cooling off on a cot.

His Islamophobia aside, Mahek is much more pragmatic when it comes to assessing the impact of the RLD-BJP alliance.

An RLD old-timer, he feels Jayant Chaudhary compromised on his party’s future by allying with the BJP and settling on contesting only two constituencies after winning eight MLA seats in 2022.

“What was the compulsion?” asked Mahek.

Since the Jat support bases of the BJP, RLD and the various farmer groups are intertwined and often difficult to separate on the basis of ideology, things are not as black and white.

Many of those who are critical of the BJP for failing to raise sugarcane prices still support it for other reasons.

Sanjeev Balyan, a farmer, said he would vote for his namesake BJP candidate because the BJP had increased the coverage of good roads and built infrastructure like never before. Then, there is the oft-quoted issue of security.

“There have been no riots under the rule of Yogi. People are scared of Yogi. He does what he wants and says,” said Sanjeev.

Which people, I ask? Jaipal Singh, a senior Jat voter, who is smoking hookah on a cot after lunch next to Sanjeev, answers that.

“Mullo ko dharti mein gusa diya [Yogi has sent Muslims underground],” Jaipal said, revealing the ingrained anti-Muslim communalism here.

But what about the livelihood issues, especially cane dues and cane prices? Sanjeev is hopeful that if the BJP comes to power, things will get better with the support of the RLD.

Also read: Ten Years Later, Shadow of the 2013 Riots Still Haunts Muzaffarnagar

“If the BJP wins 400 seats, it will increase the sugarcane price to Rs 400,” said Sanjeev. The RLD’s campaign also hinges on this promise of getting a better deal for farmers through its alliance with the BJP.

None of these matter for Sonu Malik, 28, a Jat who works in a CCTV firm in Delhi. He is voting for the BJP and Modi even though he finds the sitting MP inaccessible, rude and arrogant.

The internal divisions between the Jats on the basis of khaps – Balyan belongs to the Balyan khap while the SP candidate is from the Gathwala khap – are also irrelevant for Sonu.

Like many youngsters here, he dishes out data on how many more AIIMS, airports and roads have been built in the country under Modi’s rule. On the other hand, under the previous governments, power supply was a big issue and incidents of loot were common.

But what about the pain and misery faced by the farmers?

“Only those farmers following the Tikait brothers [of the Bharatiya Kisan Union] were protesting on the streets,” said Sonu, who feels that even Harendra Malik, the SP’s sole Jat candidate in UP, should have joined the BJP.

Subash Chandra Balyan, who exports herbal products to Russia, marked the BJP high on some aspects – good foreign policy, increase in infrastructural growth and inclusion of retired IAS and IFS officers in government posts – but criticised it on others – inflation, unemployment, the Agniveer scheme as well as the cash crunch and debt woes faced by the rural economy.

“Without jobs and proper literacy, these young men going for the Agniveer scheme will return and turn to armed crimes or at best work as watchmen,” he said.

Subash Chandra has also had a personal bad experience with the Make in India scheme. He had proposed a technology to dispose of polythene safely, but received zero response from the government, entangling him in bureaucratic processes.

“Corruption is the same as before. In fact, it is on the higher side today,” said he.

Also read: What Might the Congress-Samajwadi Party Alliance Achieve in Uttar Pradesh?

How people eventually cast their votes on voting day is often delinked from their concerns and issues they raise in the run-up to it. Voting is more of an emotional affair than a rational decision in India.

But one thing is clear, the Muzaffarnagar seat would be a good test of the compatibility between the RLD and BJP after a decade of antagonism, especially on secular values and farmer issues.

Without the support of the RLD old-timers, the BJP might find it hard to win here.

Addressing a rally in Meerut earlier in April, Jayant Singh, with BJP leader Amit Shah on stage, appealed to his workers to show a “much bigger heart” in this election.

“We have gone through a lot of struggles [as the opposition], but now you will have to show a much bigger heart,” Jayant said.

He quoted lines from poet Dushyant Kumar to send across his message to RLD workers.

“Ye sach hain ki pavo ne bahut kashth uthaye. Par pau kisi tarah rah pe toh aye,” he said, implying that the RLD was finally on the right track – from Muzaffarnagar to Delhi – to power.

While the two Jats have occupied much of the limelight in Muzaffarnagar, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also in the fray.

It has fielded a candidate from the Prajapati (OBC) caste, Dara Singh Prajapati. With the consolidation of the Jatav voters and Prajapati support base of the candidate, the BSP hopes it can put up a good fight. This is likely to hurt the BJP further.

Biram Pal, a Prajapati who runs a snacks stall near Kalyanpur village, says he will not vote for the BJP this time. He is in no mood to vote for a Jat candidate, unlike in previous years.

“All communities have extended support to Dara Singh … Dalits, Pal, Prajapati, Saini. This time we have a candidate from our baradari. We will vote for him,” said Pal, without blinking an eye.

Questionable: Who’s in Charge of India’s New Post Office in Antarctica?

Between that and India’s “most unsuccessful candidate” set to try his luck again next week, how closely have you been following the news?

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