In the Indian Navy’s brilliant attempt to make India a regional power by 2050, an unfortunate controversy seems to be in the making – whether to prioritise building aircraft carriers or nuclear attack submarines.
These are actually two platforms that are non- competing. Meant entirely to fulfil different purposes, both are integral components of maritime power. The cabinet committee on Security, which gives approval to undertake these expensive projects, would naturally keep the available budget in mind and therefore prioritise.
However, the building time in India for either platform is around eight years, and the capital cost amortised over this period should not be alarming. This is particularly because as this author has written earlier, we are working on a projected GDP growth to anything between $ 19 trillion and $ 30 trillion in 2050. Even taking the lower figure, the naval budget in 2050, would be $ 80 billion, at 20% allocation of the Defence budget to the Navy.
The aircraft carrier vs submarine debate
A misconceived idea which often intrudes in this debate is that a large platform like the aircraft carrier is too vulnerable in today’s warfare, and therefore, the submarine is the preferred alternative. This belief stems from a fallacious method of threat analysis, which if done correctly involves a three stage process.
The first is a one-on-one comparison, the second, the role of secondary factors, and lastly, and most importantly, a scenario analysis. To illustrate; if we placed a soldier in a trench equipped with a machine gun, and asked another platoon of soldiers to charge and take over the trench, the result would be high casualties.
The immediate conclusion would be that the human body is too vulnerable, and therefore the day of the infantry is over. This would be a catastrophic error. Firstly, the infantry is part of an all arms offensive, involving artillery, tanks, smoke and air power, which when used simultaneously would result in a different outcome. Secondly, the infantry is indispensable to achieving victory in war, which needs occupying and holding ground, as the ultimate achievements .
The aircraft carrier vulnerability theory arises from structured naval exercises conducted by all countries in peacetime, when to avoid wasting time, two forces are pitched against each other to ensure that an encounter takes place. In such artificial conditions, the submarine using the thermal layers in the sea to its advantage always comes out smelling of roses and victory.
Why Indian ocean cannot be dominated without large carriers
The reality may be different. The Indian ocean, which the Indian Navy seeks to dominate by 2050 is 6,000 miles by 4,700 miles. This vast expanse of water cannot be dominated or controlled by ANY platform other than a large carrier of not less than 80,000 tonne. The size is specified because only such a carrier can field three squadrons of fighter- ground-attack, and a flight of air early warning aircraft. The three squadrons, to overwhelm the ability of air forces of most countries to operate over the sea, and the AEW aircraft to give information dominance.
The most lucid exposition of what the aircraft carrier does is by Admiral Paparo, the C-in-C of the Indo-Pacific Command, in an interview on YouTube. Entrusted by the US government with taking on China in the West Pacific, Admiral Paparo enlikens air dominance to the infantry of the oceans, ‘occupying’ the surface upto a 1,00,000 feet, supplemented by underwater and space domination.
Modern aircraft carriers are escorted by destroyers with vertical launch cells, for land attack missiles, ballistic missile defence, anti-surface and anti-submarine launch weapons. The carrier’s destroyer screen is therefore, by itself, a potent offensive weapon capable of attacking drone launching sites.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is currently building the type 55 destroyer, to escort their aircraft carriers, fitted with 112 vertical launch cells, to similarly fire ballistic missile defence and the CJ10 land attack cruise missile. The Indian Navy is also currently building the project 18 class destroyer which will have 144 vertical launch cells for firing missiles in three dimensions.
The nuclear attack submarine
The nuclear attack submarine has a totally different history and follows another narrative. Initially built by the US navy to hunt Soviet ballistic missile submarines picked up by sea bottom based sound sensors in the Greenland-Iceland-UK gap, the SSN went on to carry land attack missiles. They performed a vital role in attacking opposing C3I sites prior to a land invasion.
Also Read: India Needs a Maritime Strategy for the 21st Century
The Soviets and later the Russians use the SSNs to challenge the US’s surface warfare hegemony, particularly their aircraft carrier, and historically carried powerful anti-ship missiles. Nuclear attack submarines are potent and powerful sea denial weapons platforms, but cannot achieve sea control, which navies traditionally aspire to, following a Mahanian strategy. Currently, most US carriers have an escorting nuclear attack submarine in their screen.
At present, the Indian Navy has an approval to go ahead with the nuclear attack submarine programme, but is yet to start plans to build its third aircraft carrier. An 80,000 tonne carrier, built in India is estimated to cost about Rs, 40,000 crores. This estimate is based on the Rs. 20,000 crores that the Vikrant amounted to, the $ 4.5 billion that the Queen Elizabeth amounted to in the UK for a 60,000 tonne carrier, and the lower building costs in India.
According to open literature, the SSN costs for the first two is Rs. 20,000 crore each, or roughly $ 2.5 billion. It would appear that the yearly budgeted cost for both programmes are within the amounts that the Navy will be allotted, especially in the later years. The Indian maritime strategy, currently being written by Naval Headquarters will have to factor in the blistering pace of Chinese warship building, the imperative of dominating the Indian ocean, along with challenging the PLAN in the Malacca Straits. All these imperatives require for large carrier and the nuclear attack submarine.
Rear Admiral Raja Menon is the author of the highly regarded Maritime Strategy and Continental Wars.