For the first time in two decades, Congress appears confident of forming a government in Chhattisgarh. None of its leaders seems worried about the close call that plagued the past three elections. The exit polls have given it an edge and have made chief minister Raman Singh edgy. Senior Congress leaders who believed they had been done in by the maverick Ajit Jogi from inside the last three times are now confident of winning, estimating that he can’t inflict the same damage from outside.
While Raman Singh remains BJP’s undisputed choice, Congress has four leaders lobbying for the top post. Each of these four leaders has backers and hackers in Delhi because that’s how the grand old party works. It says the elected members will decide, but the MLAs leave the decision to the high command.
The Wire contacted at least 15 likely winners from the Congress list to gauge the depth of the divide over leadership.
Also read: Why is the Congress’s Manifesto for Chhattisgarh Making the BJP Wary?
If the BJP wins outright, then there are of course no unanswered questions. But if there is a significant gap and the party goes out in search of horses, then it’s unlikely to find them in the Congress stable. Of this the candidates appear confident. “There has been no significant break from Congress despite two years of Jogi Congress and 15 years of BJP rule. Why should it happen now,” says Charan Das Mahant, the senior-most Congress leader in the state still contesting elections.
Congress working president Ramdayal Uike left the party to join the BJP on the eve of elections, but he was a BJP import to begin with. Mahant, on the other hand, had been tipped to become chief minister in 2013 as the then PCC president, but that campaign fizzled out at the last hurdle with the Congress losing out with a 0.75% margin.
Mahant believes there is no such chance now. “There were internal pressures which resulted in senior leaders like Ravindra Choubey losing against the tide,” he says matter-of-factly. His claim to the chief minister’s office is stronger this time as he has decided to contest from the Sakti constituency. During the last assembly elections, he had stayed out of the contest as he was Union minister. His supporters believe that he should get the first call since since he is the senior-most leader. “Not just senior-most, no one in India can claim to have a cleaner record than him after 40 years of public life. He has never ever been near even the whiff of a scandal,” says Ravi Bakde, his ardent supporter and former classmate.
Mahant’s claims, though, are largely based on the fact that there has been a long-pending demand for an OBC CM no matter which party wins. Among the Congress contenders, PCC president Bhupesh Baghel is a Kurmi, CWC member Tamradhwaj Sahu a Teli, Mahant a Panika. The fourth one, T.S. Singhdeo, is, like Raman Singh, a Thakur.
Also read: Congress Leaders in Chhattisgarh Have Been Painting a Rosy Picture for Rahul Gandhi
Singhdeo is the most accomplished and the likeliest. A former scion of the Sarguja royal family, his father M.S. Singhdeo was the chief secretary of Madhya Pradesh during Arjun Singh’s regime in the 1980s; even the chief minister addressed him as Maharaj. A two-time MLA, Singhdeo can legitimately claim to have been done in by the fact that his constituency was reserved for the ST till 2008 when, after the reorganisation, it became a general seat. His reserve and reticence in creating ruckus in the assembly resulted in Baghel overshadowing him with his more aggressive posturing. But make no mistake, he may still be Rahul’s favourite for his class and administrative acumen.
Baghel may have hurt himself in the foot by needlessly getting drawn into sting operations. It hurt his credibility in the closing stages of the election campaign. He had built himself a good record as PCC chief, taking on the government on key issues and then organising the district units of the party. Though not an undisputed leader, he has without doubt led the state unit with some competence. His other drawback has been his unremitting stand on the issue of the OBCs. He believes that only the OBCs should rule the state since they form 47% of the state’s population, a premise that Singhdeo has publicly resisted. “Congress chose Ajit Jogi in 2000 because he was competent and not because he was a tribal,” Singhdeo says.
To contest Baghel’s theory of 47% OBC population as en bloc, the Sahus and the Telis, who together claim to form about 15% population in the state, have put forward the candidature of Tamradhwaj Sahu, who is the only Congress MP from the state. Sahus have generally not supported the Kurmis and vice-versa in the Durg division, where both communities exist in significant numbers. Sahu is a down-to-earth but clever politician who has grown despite the shadow of Motilal Vora and Baghel in his own vicinity. In March, Rahul surprised everyone by nominating him to the CWC. Many didn’t realise that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also a Teli, and Rahul was simply using the same card.
Also read: Chhattisgarh Exit Polls Leave Everyone Guessing
Modi’s elder brother, Prahlad Modi, had a couple of years ago tried to organise the Sahus of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand under one banner. He even suggested that the Sahus should now start using Modi surname to project solidarity with the Prime Minister. The Sahus then reportedly suggested that in fact Modi should also consider using the Sahu surname for wider reach in the mainland.
Quite aside from the now increasingly open race amongst Congressmen for the chief ministerial post, the BJP has its task cut out. It knows that only Raman Singh can lead it into the 2019 war after the state skirmish is over. Singh’s fourth ascension is not in doubt if the party wins but the OBC and the tribal leaders within the party from Nandkumar Sai to Ramesh Bais are getting restless. They have passed from middle age to old literally under one wide umbrella. It will be interesting to see if there is some power struggle for leadership within the state BJP following the Lok Sabh elections six months from now. For the four Congressmen on the other hand, its either now or never.
Neeraj Mishra is a senior journalist who has covered elections in central India for more than two decades.