Prayagraj/Varanasi: With 61 seats polling in the fifth phase on Sunday, the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections officially enters Purvanchal – the densely-populated eastern regions of the state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has timed his visit to his constituency, Varanasi, to coincide with the fifth phase polling. His visit is ostensibly to address a gathering of booth-level workers, but will most likely to set the tone for the saffron party in the last three phases.
Central and state BJP leaders have begun to camp in Varanasi to coordinate and oversee the last three rounds. The region has historically seen tight three-cornered electoral contests in a majority of seats. With anti-incumbency sentiment running high against Adityanath’s BJP government in these relatively poorer districts, every party is promising welfare, but in different tenors.
BJP candidate and minister Nand Gopal Nandi from Allahabad during Amit Shah road show. Photo: Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta
The 61 seats polling on Sunday fall in Congress’s former strongholds Amethi and Rae Bareli, Sultanpur, Chitrakoot, Pratapgarh, Kaushambi, Prayagraj, Barabanki, Ayodhya, Bahraich, Shravasti and Gonda, all districts where the Samajwadi Party has emerged as a significant force. In 2017, the BJP collected 47 of the 61 seats, while its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) won three. Its primary challenger, SP, could win only five, while the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party got three. Two independents won, leaving the Congress with only one.
Akhilesh’s new strategy
The SP has always been seen as a political force that is predominantly predisposed towards the interests of OBC group Yadavs and Muslims. However, Akhilesh Yadav in these polls has projected his party as a broad-based party, stitching together alliances with smaller parties led by leaders belonging to different OBC groups, even as he has carried out a campaign that touches every layer of society.
The BJP, on the other hand, has primarily focused on an improved law and order situation, free ration scheme during the pandemic and Hindutva, while relying heavily on Adityanath’s performance as the chief minister.
With a new political strategy, Akhilesh’s campaign has struck a chord among the poor and middle classes. But he still has to overcome the mammoth BJP machinery and Modi-Yogi-Amit Shah triumvirate’s charismatic appeal among a large section of Hindus to wrest power from the ruling party.
Brahmin residents of Bhatauti village in Meja. Photo: K.K. Pandey
In most seats polling in the fifth phase, SP has fielded non-Yadav and non-Muslim candidates to consolidate OBC and Dalit sections of the population, the impact of which is palpable in the electoral ground of UP.
Caste-based equations a dominant electoral factor
Let’s take the example of one constituency, Meja in Prayagraj, to understand how the SP’s tactic is playing out.
Meja is a Brahmin-dominated seat. The community has almost a lakh votes here. With BJP riding a wave in 2017, it elected BJP’s Brahmin leader Neelam Karwariya in 2017 by a margin of almost 20,000 votes. Neelam is seen as an outsider who originally belongs to Kaushambi district. But her appeal lies in her association with the strongman Karwariya family. Her husband, Uday Bhan Karwariya, is currently lodged in prison along with his brothers for killing the former Yadav MLA Jawahar Yadav.
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In the 1990s, Jawahar grew in stature by challenging the Karwariya family’s dominance in the region. Resource-rich Meja is also known as one of the most sought-after places for sand and stone mining, which the Karwariya family controlled. Jawahar, who first became prominent by getting a hold over the alcohol business in the region, went on to stake his claim over mining, leading to a messy rivalry between the two caste-based groups. While Karwariyas enjoyed the patronage of BJP leader Murli Manohar Joshi, Jawahar had SP patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav’s backing.
Following Jawahar’s murder, the Karwariyas consolidated their position in commercial activities. On the political stage, the dominance of Karwariyas translated into a caste rivalry between Brahmins and OBC groups.
Meja market. Photo: K.K. Pandey
As Neelam gradually became unpopular for remaining inaccessible through her tenure, many Brahmins assumed that the saffron party would field a new face. When The Wire visited a few Brahmin-dominated villages in the constituency, most residents said that although Neelam isn’t a popular candidate, their votes will still go with the BJP. But they also added that they could have shifted to SP in 2022, given the perceived poor performance of the Adityanath government, if Akhilesh Yadav had fielded popular Brahmin leader Girish Chandra, popularly known as Gama Pandey.
The SP, on the other hand, has fielded a new but popular leader, Sandeep Patel, who belongs to the OBC Kurmi community – the second-most populous community in the seat. Kurmis voted for the BJP in 2017 but Akhilesh’s spirited campaign and high unpopularity of the state government appeared to consolidate the community in favour of Patel. The Kurmi-dominated villages where The Wire visited spoke highly of Akhilesh while talking about their problems over the last few years, even as many criticised Adityanath’s decisions. None preferred the campaign along Hindu-Muslim lines.
Patel’s vocal supporters are hoping for a win for other reasons too. “The BSP has fielded a popular Brahmin candidate, while the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party have also fielded Brahmin faces. These candidates are from Meja, while Neelam Karwariya is from Kaushambi. The division in Brahmin votes will favour Patel,” Rambharat Patel in Meja said.
A Mallah community member selling fish. Photo: K.K. Pandey
The non-affluent caste groups, especially Mallahs, who are influential, appeared to be divided between parties but all spoke about the impact of the agrarian crisis and price rise on their lives.
Meja’s contest has panned out as a straight contest between the BJP and SP, and is showing signs of a counter-consolidation against dominant Brahmins.
Also read: Why the Electoral Contest in UP Is Closer Than it Seems
Akhilesh’s deliberate tactic to represent caste groups other than Yadavs has sent a positive message to the non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits, who are seen as supporters of the BJP. Whether or not the social churning will be enough to upset electoral caste equations tilted towards the BJP remains to be seen. Nonetheless, the anti-incumbency sentiment against Adityanath government has energised the SP and has kept the ruling party on its toes.
Keenly-watched leaders and seats
Barring the urban seats, where the BJP has been getting support from across communities, much of the rural seats tell a similar story. The seats polling in the fifth phase are no different.
Deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya from Sirathu is facing stalwart Kurmi leader Sonelal Patel’s younger daughter Pallavi Patel from the SP, in what seems to be a tightly-fought battle. The fate of state ministers Siddharth Nath Singh from Allahabad West, Nand Gopal Gupta from Allahabad South, Ramapati Mishra from Mankapur, and Rajesndra Singh from Patti will also be sealed in the ballot boxes on Sunday.
Among the other prominent candidates in the fray are Aradhana Mishra, daughter of senior Congress leader Pramod Tiwari, from Rampur Khas, Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik) strongman Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiya from Kunda, former student leader and SP candidate Richa Singh from Allahabad West, and popular Congress leader and four-time MLA Anugraha Narayan Singh from Allahabad North. As many as seven former student leaders are contesting from major parties in Allahabad district.
