Mumbai: The Supreme Court’s interim order on Monday granting time to the 16 rebelling Shiv Sena MLAs, including Eknath Shinde, till July 11 has set out a conducive stage for the camp to confront the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in Maharashtra. Shinde and his camp, which claims to have the backing of around 50 MLAs – 39 from the Sena itself – have several options to explore.
And with the apex court refusing to stay the floor test in the state legislative assembly until the next hearing on July 11, Shinde’s camp may seek a floor test soon. Shinde, talking to the media on Tuesday, June 28, said he will “soon” be heading to Mumbai with his supporting MLAs. Shinde is likely to make a big move against chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, demanding a no-confidence vote against him and his government.
Thackeray-supported Sena is likely to move the Supreme Court if a floor test is sought. This could be from Shinde’s side or from Maharashtra governor B.S. Koshiyari’s end.
As of today, a floor test ought to defeat the current coalition government in the state. Maharashtra tri- party government of Shiv Sena, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Congress is comprised of 152 MLAs. Of them, 55 MLAs belong to the Sena, 53 are from the NCP and the remaining 44 are from the Congress.
Shinde is confident that the MLAs in his camp will vote against Thackeray. But even if the rebelling MLAs were to abstain from voting, the floor test could go against the MVA government.
But it won’t be smooth sailing for Shinde too. The rebel leader has claimed that he is against the Shiv Sena’s “unnatural alliance” with the Congress and NCP.
He must support another party (likely to be BJP) or face disqualification proceedings. As a legitimate breakaway group, Shinde will have to consider the option of merging with another party and eventually stake a claim to form a government.
Rumours are rife that the MLAs who have moved to Guwahati are not fully accepting of a merger with the BJP, which has 105 MLAs. This, many in the Thackeray camp, claim is perhaps the main reason why neither the BJP nor Shinde have announced joining hands.
While Thackeray and his supporters from the Sena have called Shinde a traitor and not a “true Sainik”, Shinde’s faction has maintained that they have only rebelled against Thackeray and his MVA government but continue to remain with the party. When the state deputy speaker Narhari Zirwal sent a disqualification notice to 16 MLAs, including Shinde, on June 21, Shinde called the move a “threat tactic”. He announced that Bharat Gogawale, another rebel MLA, was elected as the chief whip of the Shiv Sena legislature party, against Sunil Prabhu from the Thackeray camp.
If the Shinde group wants to claim its stake over the party, it has to go through a process. A general meeting of the Shiv Sena members will have to be commenced, and an application will have to be sent to the Election Commission to recognise the faction as the legitimate party.