The BJP’s defeat in the recent Uttar Pradesh by-polls sends out a warning to the party. The writing on the wall is clear: the survival of the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party combine poses a serious threat to the ruling BJP in the 2019 general elections. The danger becomes even more acute if the coalition gets Congress support.
However, the biggest question is whether or not this alliance will continue to exist. A question followed by scores of others: Will the BJP not invest all its efforts in wrecking the alliance? Will Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav come to a settlement regarding the distribution of seats? Who will hold the reins of such an alliance? Does the Congress leadership have the capability to keep the alliance from disintegrating?
As 2018 progresses, many of these questions will find answers. Right now, the BJP is in a state of shock in the wake of the by-poll results. This is no ordinary defeat. If the chief minister and deputy chief minister fail to hold their respective bastions, it is surely a matter of both shame and worry for the BJP and its government in UP.
Gorakhpur has been UP chief minister Adityanath’s stronghold. He has represented the constituency for five consecutive terms in Lok Sabha. Before him, the seat belonged to his guru Avaidyanath. Adityanath’s influence extends to neighbouring areas as well.
The loss of Gorakhpur is a heavy blow not just to the BJP but also to Adityanath – casting a shadow on his reputation and his government’s image. The blow becomes all the more stark when one recalls the UP chief minister’s vigorous campaign. Adityanath held at least a dozen meetings over several days across the constituency. No opposition leader could match his campaign.
In addition, the BJP has to grapple with the loss of the Phulpur seat. The seat fell vacant after UP deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya resigned from the Lok Sabha.
That Phulpur has traditionally been a political stronghold of the Congress and Samajwadi Party, and that the BJP won the seat in the 2014 general elections only because of the Modi wave, is little consolation for the party.
The Samajwadi Party managed to win Phulpur despite the fact that UP strongman Atique Ahmed was in the electoral fray. Ahmed has consistently won from one of the assembly constituencies in Phulpur. However, he slipped to the third position in the recent by-poll.
The defeat of the BJP suggests that Dalit and backward castes, alongside Muslims, have strategically voted in favour of the Samajwadi Party and against the BJP.
Is this defeat of the BJP a negative commentary on the work of the Adityanath government, which is soon completing one year in Uttar Pradesh? Does it signal the mood of voters towards Modi and the government he leads at the Centre? Is the poll outcome a demonstration of the strength of UP’s complex caste equations, which show that the combined electoral strength of Dalits, backward castes and Muslims can push back the BJP and its ideology?
File photo of Adityanath, chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. Credit: PTI
Will the coalition survive?
For both Akhilesh and Mayawati, there is reason to rejoice. They would certainly want to keep the alliance going till 2019. According to data, the SP-BSP alliance is rather disturbing for the BJP. If the Congress joins in, the BJP will be completely wiped out. In 2014, the BJP got 42.63% of the votes while SP, BSP and Congress got 49.83% votes combined.
But the SP-BSP dispute is going to be a major hurdle for the alliance, representing conflicting caste interests. Mayawati is known to strike hard political bargains. Naturally, she would argue that the SP’s by-poll victory is due to the BSP’s vote share, which was transferred to the SP. From here on, Mayawati is likely to claim a larger seat share.
Akhilesh, on the other hand, will not settle for second place in the alliance. Deciding who will be the coalition leader is likely to become a point of contestation. After all, there is now no Kanshi Ram who could have resolved such issues. Nor is a shrewd strategist like Mulayam Singh Yadav still active in UP politics.
The BJP’s possible shots
It is unlikely that BJP strategists will let this alliance prosper. Back in 1995, the BJP had played a pivotal role in the bitter and aggressive break up of the SP-BSP coalition. Twenty-three years later, this political relationship has surfaced again.
Rajya Sabha elections are approaching. The SP has already announced its support for the BSP candidate. The BJP will leave no stone unturned to make sure the BSP candidate loses. For this, it will make every effort to convince SP MLAs to resort to cross-voting. This is the reason why it fielded its ninth candidate at the very last minute. The BJP has already placed its bets by inducting Naresh Agrawal in the party.
If the BSP candidate loses, tension will surface within the coalition. Mayawati may accuse Akhilesh of being unable to keep his MLAs united in favour of the alliance. She might also claim that the BSP helped the SP win the by-election, but the SP could not ensure a victory for the BSP candidate in the Rajya Sabha. The would be adding fuel to the fire.
It is also likely that the BJP may further stoke its inherent Hindutva agenda by raising the simmering Ram Mandir issue in Ayodhya. Like Lalu Yadav in Bihar, the central government can unleash the CBI on Mayawati to prevent her or Akhilesh from pursuing the coalition agenda. Mayawati is currently implicated in a disproportionate assets case.
Much will depend on the common sense of Akhilesh and Mayawati in determining how they are going to retain this coalition to defeat the BJP. The Congress is going to play a significant role, but it will likely have to become a third – and minor – partner in the alliance.
It might seem like a huge price for the Congress to pay, but that’s the only way a stout electoral fight can be shaped against the Modi government in 2019. Is the Congress ready to pay this price under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi?
Naveen Joshi is a senior UP-based journalist.
Translated from Hindi by Naushin Rehman. You can read the Hindi version of this article here.