Can Rahul Gandhi Turn This Crisis Into an Opportunity to Emerge as the Main Challenger to Modi?

Despite the noise in parliament, the Modi government has been cornered over the Adani issue and stagnant economic growth over months. Will Gandhi be able to turn his perceived personal battle into a political one?

New Delhi: The two-year sentencing of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi by a Chief Judicial Magistrate’s (CJM) court in a criminal defamation case filed in Surat has come at a time when the Congress leader is facing a critical moment in his political career.

Not only has he just finished leading a gruelling 3,500-kilometer march on foot from Kanyakumari to Kashmir, he and his party since then haven’t let go of a single chance to take on the Narendra Modi government on issues that have opened up fierce debates.

But Gandhi’s most scathing attack on the Union government recently has been on the allegations of financial misdeeds made by the US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research against the Adani Group, a business house known for its age-old proximity with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Ambani-Adani ammunition

Gandhi had been challenging the government with his charge that the prime minister has empowered a few select companies over creating a level-playing field for all. He has often invoked the phrase “Ambani-Adani” – a substitute for alleged cronyism – in his speeches.

The accusation has surely had some impact on people, especially when a large chunk of India has been reeling under the stress of highest unemployment the nation has ever since and back-breaking inflation. His Bharat Jodo Yatra revolved around the three-pronged messaging – rising social disharmony, growing unemployment and inflation, and deepening inequalities during Modi’s tenure.

He amplified his messaging by consistently backing his allegation of cronyism against Modi.

He had been at the forefront of challenging the Modi government on the matter even in parliament, even as his party backed him by running the ‘Hum Adani Ke Hai Kaun’ campaign, which involves posing daily questions to the prime minister regarding his closeness with the Adani group that, according to the Congress, facilitated the business group’s meteoric rise over the last few years.

It wasn’t any surprise that the Congress’s political response to Gandhi’s conviction has been quick and strong. Top leaders of the party put up a defiant front, and projected Gandhi’s conviction as an outcome of the moral battle he has waged against Modi’s authoritarianism. All of them almost unanimously claimed that the party is not going to buckle under pressure, come what may.

As Gandhi’s conviction came on Martyrs Day, some of them were quick to draw a parallel between his sentencing and the execution of revolutionary freedom fighters – Bhagat Singh, Sukhdev Thapar and Shivaram Rajguru on this day in 1931.

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge immediately announced that the party will move a higher court against the CJM court’s decision. “The cowardly, dictatorial BJP government is upset with Mr @RahulGandhi and the Opposition because we are exposing their dark deeds. We’re demanding a JPC [joint parliamentary committee]. The Modi government is inflicted with political bankruptcy, sends ED [Enforcement Directorate] and police, and slaps cases on political speeches. We will appeal in a higher court,” he tweeted in Hindi.

Congress general secretary and Gandhi’s sister, Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra, tweeted, “Scared rulers are pulling out all stops to suppress the voice of @RahulGandhi ji. My brother has never been afraid, nor will he ever be. He will continue to speak the truth. Will continue to raise the voice of the people of the country. The power of truth and the love of crores of countrymen are with him.”

Gandhi himself tweeted in Hindi, without referring to the case, “My religion is based on truth and non-violence. Truth is my God, non-violence the means to get it.”

All the top Congress leaders across states jumped in Gandhi’s defence, while the party cadre staged demonstrations across India. The energy shown by the Congress on Thursday (March 23) was similar to the time when both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi were summoned for questioning by the ED in the alleged National Herald money laundering case a few months ago.

Also read: Rahul Gandhi Must Not Go Unanswered if Indian Democracy Is to Be Credible

Strictly legal?

At the same time, party leaders alleged that a criminal case against Gandhi for his 2019 speech in Kolar, Karnataka, was made in a larger political context, and that it concentrated on problems like price rise and unemployment, and not on the three persons – Lalit Modi, Nirav Modi, and Narendra Modi.

(The complainant had alleged that Gandhi’s statement, “I have a question. Why do all these thieves have Modi in their names whether it is Nirav Modi, Lalit Modi or Narendra Modi? We don’t know how many more such Modis will come out,” Gandhi had said while speaking about the three Modis had hurt the pride of many who used the Modi surname.)

Senior leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi said that such cases were an outcome of the BJP’s malafide intent and malice to crush any political dissent in India. He claimed that the complainant, Purnesh Modi, a BJP MLA, had stayed his own complaint at the previous CJM court but opened the matter again when a new CJM came.

Singhvi also claimed that the Surat CJM court did not have any jurisdiction in dealing with a matter that happened in Kolar and that the CJM didn’t invoke Section 202 of the Code of Criminal Procedure to examine the merit of the case before initiating the process.

The Congress’s moral posturing appeared to have overshadowed BJP’s attack on Gandhi on Thursday. His conviction has drawn support from unlikely quarters, including the Aam Aadmi Party that has often been at loggerheads with the Congress. Similarly, many other parties like the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha or the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam have come forward to see in Gandhi’s conviction a willing attempt by the BJP to silence him. There has hardly been a moment in Indian history when the tallest opposition leader has been convicted for his remarks in a public speech.

But the BJP has been creating new precedents for some time now. Police departments under the BJP governments have regularly arrested people for dissent and making critical remarks – the most recent incident of which is the arrest of four persons by the Delhi Police for allegedly putting up posters against Modi in Delhi, even as those posters were forcibly removed.

The BJP naturally welcomed Gandhi’s conviction and said that it was for the speaker to take a decision on his disqualification from the Lok Sabha, as mandated by the Representation of People’s Act, which has a provision to debar those members convicted for two years or more. Earlier, Singhvi had questioned the rationale of the CJM’s decision to sentence Gandhi for the maximum punishment he could get in the defamation case.

Watch | Did Rahul Gandhi Collectively Defame All Those Named ‘Modi’?

However, since the CJM has suspended the sentencing for a month to allow Gandhi to appeal at a higher court, it appears that the speaker may not be able to take an immediate decision to debar the Wayanad MP from Lok Sabha.

Beyond legal

Legal challenges aside, the Congress has ensured that Gandhi’s sentencing is seen as having a political character. Singhvi and other leaders hammered down the argument that although the party believed in the judicial system, the CJM court’s decision was an act of overreach to create “a chilling effect” on political dissent.

However, with the conviction, Gandhi has nothing left to lose. Gandhi has put up a brave face consistently through the questioning by the ED, a vilification campaign against him during the Bharat Jodi Yatra, then an aggressive demand for an apology over his remarks in the UK, even as the Union government has refused to respond, on merit, to his multiple and specific allegations. However, his criticism has still to prove to be politically or electorally effective, amid an all-round 24/7 noisy campaign against him by the BJP.

Crisis versus opportunity

He could turn this crisis into an opportunity to emerge as a serious challenger to Modi. With his conviction, the Congress appears to have found new vigour. His sentencing may just be an apt moment not only for the Congress to revive itself but also for Gandhi to mount an effective and emotive campaign against the BJP and the prime minister on the very issues he has been talking about consistently.

Despite him raising critical concerns about the Modi government and doing so consistently, Gandhi is perceived as more of a lone wolf than a leader who could decisively command the largest opposition party of India. With the Modi government cornered over the Adani issue and stagnant economic growth over months, will Gandhi be able to turn his perceived personal battle into a political one? Could this crisis provide the fuel and be the turning point that the party and opposition need a year before the next general election? It is a question worth pondering over.

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Author: Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta

Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta is Political Affairs Editor at The Wire, where he writes on the realpolitik and its influences. At his previous workplace, Frontline, he reported on politics, conflicts, farmers’ issues, history and art. He tweets at @AjoyAshirwad and can be reached at ajoy@cms.thewire.in.