Mumbai Elections: Will Sena-BJP Hold Ground Against a Resurgent Opposition?

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the math in Mumbai was very clear. Three out of six seats went to the BJP and the remaining to its ally Shiv Sena. The “Modi wave” was attributed as the sole reason for this dramatic win. The Congress had faced one of its worst defeat in a city that was once its bastion, losing five of the six seats that it had captured in the 2009 elections with margins of over one lakh. 

But five years after the last elections, with the waning of the Modi wave, the fight this time is clearly a lot tougher. Mumbai’s six Lok Sabha seats are a prestige issue for both the BJP-Sena and Congress-NCP combine. The former has to hold on to its seats, the latter has to regain some ground. Several high-profile candidates are in the fray. Mumbai goes to the polls in the fourth phase, scheduled on April 29.

Till February, this year, it was not clear if the Sena and BJP would contest together. Eventually, after much breathing of fire, they came together, realising that was mutually beneficial. It has left many in the Sena rank and file confused and even disgruntled, while many traditional BJP voters are baulking at voting for the partner’s candidate. The Congress’s situation has been grim, with several senior party leaders clashing.

Also Read: Confessions of a South Mumbai Voter

While Mumbai’s municipal corporation has for long remained in the control of the Shiv Sena, its assembly and Lok Sabha sea tallies have changes dramatically. Interestingly, the issues in both the municipal and parliamentary elections are the same: better civic amenities like roads, water and new development projects. This time it is Hindutva and nationalism.

Let’s take a closer look at the six constituencies in the city.

Mumbai South

In 2014, with the “Modi wave”, the “son-of-the-soil” Sena candidate Arvind Sawant swept the seat away from two-time MP Milind Deora.

Deora, who bears the legacy handed down to him by his father Murali Deora, lost by a sizeable margin of 1.28 lakh votes. This time around, his pitch to voters is to highlight the criminal charges against Sawant. He has asked voters, including pro-BJP ones, if they are comfortable with him. Given that many Gujaratis and Marwaris live in this constituency, this could get him some support, especially after industrialist Mukesh Ambani publicly supported Deora.

Mumbai South constituency has a very diverse demography. It covers the city’s upscale areas of Altamount Road, Peddar Road, and Malabar Hill and also the congested, Muslim-dominated old settlements of Bhendi Bazar. The dilapidated, worn out chawls in Worli, Sewri, and Lower Parel areas and the Mumbai Port Trust area, where many residents in buildings and slums are facing imminent eviction, also come under the constituency.

The constituency has a good number of upper class and upper caste Marwadi and Gujarati migrants who have settled in the region several decades ago. Working-class Maharashtrians, middle class residents and erstwhile mill workers also comprise a big number of voters. A large number of Buddhist and other backward castes citizens also live in pockets of Parel, Worli and in large slum pockets of Cuffe Parade.

The Mumbai South constituency comprises six assembly segments. Of which, two are held by the BJP (Malabar Hill and Colaba), two are with the Sena (Worli and Shivadi), one by Congress (Mumbadevi), and the last one by AIMIM (Byculla). The AIMIM is partnering with the Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, whose candidate is Dr Anil Kumar, a cardiologist with more than three-decades of medical experience. He is currently attached with the Bombay hospital.

Shanta Shirke, a 49-year-old resident of Ambedkar Nagar slums sprawled between Cuffe Parade and Colaba says her family has voted for Murali Deora, his son Milind and Sawant in recent elections. “The conditions (of the slums) have remained the same. Unless we have our own representative, no candidate will change our lives.” Shirke said she will vote for “someone who understands the requirements of the community and represents the community”.  

Infrastructure projects such as the coastal road, metro line, and the ambitious eastern waterfront have earned both praise and criticism from residents. The business class is crucial for both the Congress and the BJP.

The Mumbai Port Trust region, where thousands of residents face imminent eviction, have approached both Deora and Sawant with a ten-point agenda, seeking poll promises to save their homes and businesses. The area, spread across 1,800 acres, houses several residential and commercial units and falls largely under this constituency. “Both Deora and Sawant have assured us to raise the issue in the parliament. They have both been the MP in the past and still we have received eviction notices. But this time, we will choose a candidate who is more serious about our issues,” said Revati Jain, a member of Cuffe Parade association told The Wire.  

Mumbai South Central

Adjacent to the Mumbai South constituency is the Mumbai South Central seat. The area has many issues, ranging from the long pending Dharavi redevelopment project to pollution in the Mahul area. 

The incumbent MP Rahul Shewale will face a veteran Congress candidate Eknath Gaikwad. Gaikwad was once a “giant killer”, who defeated former chief minister and then Lok Sabha speaker Manohar Joshi in 2004. He lost to Shewale in 2014. This defeat too was attributed to the Modi wave. 

This election, Gaikwad has aggressively reached out to voters to speak of pending promises of development in the area. Through padayatras, bike rallies and door-to-door campaigns, Gaikwad has been questioning the “Modi dream”. “Where are the jobs that Modi promised? Why are the residents of this constituency still deprived of basic amenities?” Gaikwad asks. 

Shewale has attacked Gaikwad of playing “dynasty politics”. His daughter Varsha Gaikwad is a three- term MLA from the Dharavi constituency and was the minister for women and child development in the Congress state government. 

The constituency, which comprises areas such as Anushakti Nagar, Chembur, Dharavi, Sion-Koliwada, Wadala and Mahim, has 14.08 lakh voters registered. Of these, about 3.5 lakh voters, or approximately 25%, belong to Dalit communities.

While both Gaikwad and Shewale have no Dalit-specific campaign, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi’s candidate Sanjay Bhosale has kept his focus on the caste composition of the seat. His campaign has mirrored the larger VBA agenda of improving living conditions of the Bahujans in the constituency. Bhosale is also the richest candidate in the state, with total assets worth Rs 125 crore.

Mumbai North Central

This constituency features a star-studded battle. Two-time MP Priya Dutt and sitting MP Poonam Mahajan have come face-to-face for the second time. Dutt lost to Mahajan in the 2014 elections by a whopping margin of 1.86 lakh votes.

Dutt, who earlier said she wouldn’t contest this time, entered the fray after party president Rahul Gandhi urged her. 

The contest is primarily between a Marathi and a non-Marathi candidate. The constituency comprises of six assembly segments – Bandra East, Bandra West, Santacruz, Vile Parle, Kurla, and Chandivali. Of these, two are held by the BJP, three by the Shiv Sena and one by the Congress. Largely comprised of residential areas, the constituency also has the largest commercial district: the Bandra- Kurla Complex. 

The two heavy weight women contenders face competition from the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi’s Dr A.R. Anjaria. Although, a new contender, he is likely to garner support from Dalit and Muslim voters in the constituency.

The constituency also has the first transgender person contesting as an independent candidate for the Lok Sabha seat. Sneha Kale, a social worker and resident of Ghatkopar, has made the transgender community’s welfare as her main agenda. 

Dutt’s election campaign revolved around the constitution and the “incomplete promises” made by the Modi government. “Save the Constitution” has been her slogan at every election rally. Mahajan, on the other hand, has praised her party’s achievements over the last five years. 

It is an open secret that Majahan and Yuva Sena’s chief Aditya Thackeray do not get along. This animosity, may cost Mahajan dearly. “Last elections, Dutt was trounced because of the Modi factor. She has resurrected and in her old style, is connecting with voters and raising pertinent issues. Mahajan will not have it so easy this time,” said a congress leader. 

Mumbai North East

While the Sena and the BJP’s alliance was a major boost to the parties, the obvious victim of this arrangement was the Mumbai North East’s sitting MP Kirit Somaiya. Shiv Sena’s most vocal critic, and more particularly of its chief Uddhav Thackeray, Somaiya was denied a ticket because of the Sena’s vehement opposition. 

The BJP has instead fielded Brihanmumbai Municiapl Corporation (BMC) corporator Manoj Kotak, a known Uddhav Thackeray baiter. Kotak will take on Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) candidate and former MP Sanjay Dina Patil. Patil lost to Somaiya in the 2014 elections.

Of the six seats, Somaiya is the only candidate to have been dropped. Insiders say Somaiya’s supporters have been working overtime to make Kotak’s win difficult. 

Patil won comfortably in 2009 with support from several citizen groups and land rights activists like Medha Patkar. She is raising issues of housing in the region. Kotak has stuck to the larger party agenda of Hindutva. 

The Sena’s support is looked as key for the BJP’s success in the constituency. In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the presence of a strong Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) candidate cost the BJP its seat. Maharashtrians, 46% of the voters in this constituency, are being wooed by both the parties – the BJP and NCP.

Senior journalist and political commentator Jaywant Hire, who stays in the constituency, says the region requires a leader who is able to rise above party dynamics and work for its people. “This region has several slum pockets, but lacks major infrastructure projects. The rate of education is also low,” he pointed out.

Also Read: Dramatic Change in Raj Thackeray’s Avatar a Boost to Congress-NCP in Maharashtra

The constituency spans from Mulund, which essentially comprises of high caste Gujarati and South Indian population; the working class locales of Bhandup and the slums in Mankhurd. The constituency has a considerable presence of Dalit voters, especially in Kannamwar Nagar of Vikhroli and Ramabai Nagar of Ghatkopar.

Here, the VBA candidate Niharika Khondalay has gained some populatiy. Khondalay, who belongs to the Dhangar community, is the women’s wing president of the Dhangar Samaj Vikas Parishad in the state. The community has been demanding reservation under the ST category. 

Mumbai North West

This constituency saw a drastic change in its demography after delimitation in 2008, until when it was considered to be a Congress bastion, with the late Sunil Dutt representing if for decades. Although in 2009, late Congress leader Gurudas Kamat won the seat, in 2014, he was defeated by Sena’s Gajanan Kirtikar by a large margin.

The Sena is wooing its traditional Marathi voters, who comprise 35% of the total votes. The Congress’s Sanjay Nirupam is wooing North Indian communities, which comprise 21% of the total votes.

Kirtikar is seeking re-election on the grounds that he improved roads and reduced traffic congestion in the area. Nirupam, who became the candidate due to the sudden demise of Kamath, is focusing on the anti-BJP vote areas. The constituency has several North Indian and Muslim pockets. 

Another strong candidate from the constituency is the Samajwadi Party’s Subhash Pasi, who is likely to cut into the Muslim votes of Nirupam.

Mumbai North

The fight here is between stardom and experience. To arrest BJP candidate Gopal Chinayya Shetty’s popularity in the constituency, the Congress has nominated first time and star candidate Urmila Matondkar. Shetty won in 2014 with the thumping margin of 4.46 lakh.

The North Mumbai constituency is spread across Dahisar, Borivali, Magathne, Charkop, Kandivali East and Malad West. According to the 2016 voters’ list, the constituency has a total of 14.85 lakh voters, but the voter is rarely more than 50%.

Matondkar, who was a surprise candidate for the Congress, entered the fray only a month ago. She has been aggressively campaigning and reaching out to voters. 

This seat, which was traditionally a BJP stronghold (Ram Naik was elected from this seat five times) until actor Govinda defeated the incumbent Naik in 2004. In 2009, Nirupam held the seat for another term. 

Shetty, a three term corporator and with more than three decade of political career, has a strong people connect. His voters claim he is always available to meet them. 

Shetty has earned the title “garden Samrat” because he is accused of spending all the MP development funds on gardens in his constituency. 

Shetty was severely criticised recently for making communal remarks against the Christian community, which forms a sizeable voter population. He will have to mask the anti-incumbency wave against him while countering Matondkar during the election.